Bayesian Statistics with Hannah Fry
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- Опубліковано 29 вер 2024
- You can buy Hannah's great book Hello World from loads of places: www.hannahfry.c...
Including signed copies on Maths Gear!
mathsgear.co.u...
My book Humble Pi is available signed on Maths Gear, as well as un-signed from all the usuals.
SIGNED mathsgear.co.u...
UNSIGNED www.amazon.co....
The history of Thomas Bayes.
www-history.mcs...
All about the theorem named after them.
mathworld.wolfr...
Huge thanks to the current residents of the house who tolerated us running around and invading their weekend. All in exchange for two awesome maths books.
Thanks to Ben Sparks for crafting the Geogebra animation of the surface.
CORRECTIONS
- Nothing yet unless you count a slight continuity error with the door in the background. Let me know if you spot anything more serious than that!
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Music by Howard Carter
Filming and editing by Trunkman Productions trunkman.co.uk/
Sound production by Peter Doggart
Design by Simon Wright
Runner and assistance by Max
MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: standupmaths.com/
NEW BOOKk: wwwh.umble-pi.com
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"Everytime you're throwing the ball you're getting more information about... " where the table isn't
Ah, the Parker Throw...
Parkesian statistics
I don't know why they didn't just play Battle Ships... its based on Bayesian reasoning!
"where the table isn't"
It's a Parker Square table…
@@ekinteko I believe you and your comment to be genius!!! 😱
I believe this based on my never having thought of this example nor have I seen anyone else explain bayesian statistics with such a sublimely simple example. I, and the others, all use really stupidly complicated examples.
Note, I'm not saying I'm a genius. But I'd bet, at least one of the other mathematicians I've referred to regarding Bayesian statistics, might be.
BUT @Kangal, like Rev. Bayes (who I believe to be a believer) and Pascal (who I'd wager was also a believer), I believe you and your comment to be genius.
If there wasn't a virus going around I'd kiss you. 😘
"It's all about that Bayes" - Thomas Bayes probably.
There's a paper titled "Drum'n'Bayes". They use Bayesian networks for pattern recognition on music.
"Its all about that Bayes - no table" :-)
I think, you guys may be a little bit biased.
Not about the treble
You guys need your own tv show 💜
I don't care what the video is about, I read Hannah Fry I click.
She's just lovely!
Statistics indicate Hannah Fry will always be a great guest.
You should use this uncertainty to save your Parker Square.
The term I hear used that is more in contrast to Bayesian is "frequentist" just FYI. This is more looking at the things in a more Gaussian or Fischer way.
Bayesian statistics is basically how long distance sniping works, as the spotter tells the sniper how far off he was on the previous shot in order to increase accuracy
Top Ten video of all space-time.
I guess I just watched an episode of DudeParker?!
I never get tired of Matt's adorable awkwardness or Hannah's charm.
12:45 - The term is "bayesetarian".
Get ready!!!!
Parker's throw!
the buzz cut is a good look
My favorite theorem
Fast-forward two years: "I think I could hit a bullseye behind me, no problem!"
i've just watched that video too hahaha
We now have the Parker throw to go with the Parker square....
Embrace uncertainty!
so niceeee love your videos and love hannah
You two are so funny togethet
12:53 Isn't that what Albert Einstein was?
Now I'm uncertain which book to buy.
Best book plug(s) ever?
I live in T-Wells! Woop!
... statistical uncertainty... I wonder how that related to quantum uncertainty...
(Also, since we only experience life/reality on a time-delay anyway, i.e., the time that it takes for information to reach our brain and be processed, I suppose that technically we would all have/be experiencing personal uncertainty...)
Hannah is going to be a fun mum. 😆👍
Parker ball, the trending new sport, where you try to throw a ball behind you and not make it land on the table :)
I now want Hannah Fry to narrate my life.
Hi, The Guardian brought me here. They call it 'niche maths' what you're doing, haha. Thanks!
Matt: "i've converted to Bayesiantism"
Hanna: "What where you before?"
Matt: "I was a... Sertant-tist"
This is the best Matt-joke yet!
Aren't the home owners sick of so many mathematicians coming to worship Mr. Bayes?
Fernando - The Rev Bayes, if you don't mind. :)
How interesting is 1347 as a number?
I love how Dr Fry was deliberately trying to speak softly in the house, and Matt wasn't even going to attempt it 😆.
“Try more random”. LOL
“...it’s definitely... there-ish.”
TBH, if I was throwing that ball, it would've gone down those stairs a lot.
Hannah is getting plenty of practice as to being a mum of a toddler here.
This might be the best comment I've ever seen on UA-cam
Ahahahaha 😂😂😂 this REALLY got me, for some reason!
I've watched this video several times and I can't believe I've never noticed this comment. And when I did, I burst out laughing and nearly knocked over my cup of coffee onto a mum with a toddler on the next table (I'm in a cafe)? What's the statistical probability of that (i.e. there being a mum and the toddler while reading a comment about a mum and a [metaphorical? toddler)?
“Its okay, we can do it again 😃”
- "What's the chance you find me here?"
- "It's the first time I've found you here, so I don't know"
I'll use that joke, with your permission...
It’s all yours!
That's a very frequentist approach to chances. After his conversion to Bayesianism, Matt wouldn't have said that ;)
well, we know that it's more than 0%
Chance is about predicting so in fact we actually know that the chance of them meeting is 100% since it happened, therefore has become a fact.
"It's the first time I come here" would have been funnier. :D
“How good are you at catch” “I understand the theory” 😂😂😂
My history in experimental physics 😂😂
Matt Parker: Making a pregnant woman repeatedly bend down and pick up his throws, while he is sitting in a comfy chair :P
I didn't notice she was pregnant
Parker chivalry
@@Peter_1986 You mean like being near a staircase?
I didn't even realize she was pregnant before your comment. Now that I looked again it's so obvious...
@@Peter_1986 I don't think they were saying it was dangerous, just a little rude since it's harder to bend down when you're pregnant :)
"I was a certaintist...I don't know."
You don't sound like a very good certaintist.
He was certain that he didn't know!
I know that I was a certainist, but now I'm fairly confident that I am a bayesianist.
Bayesian sounds like a colour. I'm not sure what colour.
@@RaglansElectricBaboon Beige-ian.
Some Parker throws right there
In fairness to him he did give it a go, even though he wasn't entirely successful
Clearly it was a Parker Square Table. 🙂
Schrödinger, Descartes and Bayes walk into a bar. The bartender asks: "Would you gentlemen like a drink?"
Schrödinger says: "Yes and no."
Descartes says: "I don't think so."
Bayes says: "I'm not certain."
didn't get the descartes part
"I doubt therefore I think, I think therefore I am" - René Descartes
Bayes: "Ask us again..."
Descartes: "I think not" *disappears*
I'm going to use this one
6:03 One mathematician tells another mathematician to be more random.
The irony here is delightful.
Micah Long why ironic?
@@user-ky6vw5up9m
I think because you can be either random or not. It's hard to be "more" random. You could increase the sample size of course or the step size, but random is random, it doesn't become more random.
@@AtticAurel I was surprised to learn that “random” isn’t well defined mathematically.
But probability is, and comparing probability distributions is well researched, to say the least.
"And thanks to the owners of the house! Turns out, one of them's a mathematician..."
This is the least surprising statement I think I've ever heard in my life.
Can I just have Hannah and Matt explain everything to me? The sheer enthusiasm for math on display is infectious.
"Embrace uncertainty, but quantify it" is my new motto.
This has the same energy as "Take it easy, but take it"
Parker throw (I had to)
I wish Hannah Fry had a UA-cam channel
At least we've got "The Curious Cases of Rutherford and Fry"
@@ViatorRex Oh! Is that this Rutherford?!
4:10 Hannah's exasperated declaration of "Try" should cause you lot to call and thank your mothers.
I love your profile picture and username! I wish more people were familiar with Berzerk.
Hanna Try
I've never seen Bayes' fundamental insight so amusingly explained. Nor so clearly. Nicely done! (Also: congratulations to Dr Fry on the forthcoming addition to your family!)
I have heard that throwing the ball on the table example before, but actually seeing it being done makes it so much clearer to understand!
Have you read the paper they are referring to? This experiment is discussed in Section II. It's one of those things you have to draw on paper or do in real life to get a proper feel for what Bayes' saying. What I found really interesting is that Rice's motivation for submitting this paper was for it to be used as proof of Intelligent Design. 😮
@@warrenyazzie9975 Actually I'd say that Bayesian view excludes gods alltogether. There's no confidentialy, that you can measure, about exitence of a physical god. There is good examples of a methaphorical gods exitance though. Look for example all churches and temples and what not and ask if the builders had a god in their mind when they did those. But a mtphorical god is like justice: it exists only in deeds and thoughts of men.
A video with two hosts where one is sitting down for most of the video while the heavily pregnant woman has to stand the whole time... Fine work, Matt! In all seriousness, this was a lovely video and the playfulness between you two is infectious.
She's the expert, so she's the one that came up with the experiment.
they should make an audiobook together where they simultaneously read their 2 books...
Oh god the cacophony...
Check out "Numberphile"
Someone should write two books so that they synchronize when read together.
PLEASE I would love it
I've never seen a video where Hannah isn't pregnant. So make sure you have the correct data before you make conclusions from it.
Try TEDx videos ;)
"If you had an infinite number of throws, and you could throw them perfectly randomly..." he would miss the table most of the time.
It's like the old joke (well, I'm old and I was told the joke) of a physicist trying to explain the Monte Carlo method in a bar, so they describe it in terms of throwing darts at a dartboard. Come back next week and the bartender says "welcome back, I loved your explanation. Has your aim gotten any better?"
I would guess that y’all make great videos but I would be more confident if I had more samples.
Yup, we definitely need more examples... For science
"As I throw more balls my confidence in my throwing skills lowers asymptotically towards zero."
Literally bought Hello World an hour before this video was released. Now I have 2 great maths books to get absorbed into. Maths books are like buses, you wait years for a good one and then 2 turn up almost at once!
Do you think Hannah's book is good for actual computer programmers? I would read it if it is more about the ethics and psychology relating to algorithms, but if half of it is trying to explain algorithms in laymen's terms I would not enjoy it.
quote of the century
@@karlkastor It's definitely more about the ethics of the algorithms used in our modern world, and she rarely explains what the algorithms are and how they work (only enough to potentially peak interest so you go off and Google it). It's not a book to read if you want answers and definitions, it's a book that presents questions you didn't even think about asking in the first place. It's terrifying and hilarious, but mostly terrifying; I highly recommend it :).
When I was in high school statistics we were talking about Bayesian probability, and one of my classmates asked "Isn't that a black asian?", and my teacher said "no I believe that's blasian" and I will always remember that interaction.
Am I the only one getting strong Beverly Crusher vibes from Hannah in that jacket?
Well, I am now
Hush Wesley.
I didn’t the first time but just watched this again, and that’s the first thing I thought when I saw Hannah!
Another Parker/Fry video? Ummm, hell yes! Love you two :D
They should write a joint book titled "Tinker, Tailor, Parker, Fry"
@@_zelatrix I'm sure they could find two mathematicians with apt names who can be given credit as co-authors.
Anybody else find Hannahs voice soothing? Intelligent and beautiful but the voice gets me everytime.
Love your silly mathloving face! That smirk and side eye gets me every time!
I would have loved to see Matt throw the second ball directly on the first ball and Hanna tell him that the coordinates of the balls are exactly the same.
Great video! :D
6:00 "you're actually remarkably consistent"
"Consistency is only a virtue if you're not a screw-up" -Grant Sanderson
Can always count on Grant to come up with the goods!
Always love to see Hannah Fry! Loved this one as well.
congrats for the baby!
And to the father
Yeah, another person to suffer on this world.
@@LordNezghul oof edgy
@@LordNezghul only Jesus can end our suffering
@@joshuawan7004 lol wtf?
So Bayesian Statistics is about not getting things exactly right, but very close? Sound like it's right up Mr Parkers alley...or perhaps not alley, but more towards the center of town, like say a large open area.
It is not about knowing where it is, but knowing that you are right to belive it to be where you belive it to be no matter where it actually is.
these conversation is like two mathematicians flirting each other.
I don't know anything about Bayesian statistics but there are billions of houses in the world so I find it very unlikely he lived there.
/s
Without any evidence to support their logic, I think you're right
Each time they visited a house where he didn’t live, they got a tiny bit more information about where he did live.
@@albertbatfinder5240 I'm sorry for being a little bit serious, but doesn't that suppose that there is someone who knew where Bayes lived? Why not just ask them then?
@Quint Rankid - Point granted. Leaving Bayes aside for the moment, if I knocked at your door asking if Alexander von Humboldt ever lived there, you might fairly answer “I don’t know” (unless you knew he did). However, if I knew someone who DID know where the great man lived, I wouldn’t waste my time knocking on your door. You can presume by my knocking that you’re the best lead I’ve got, and you could at least help by trying to eliminate your house. Is that too much to ask?
@@albertbatfinder5240 Hmmm... Well, I'm pretty sure the house I live in was built in 1960, perhaps 100 years after von Humboldt's death, so I think I might fairly answer, "No." But it's not clear what other helpful information that might impart to you about where he might've lived. IOW, I don't think my answer helps you reduce your search by more than one house. If you started with one billion houses and my house is the first one you approach, now you have 999,999,999 houses, each with an unknown probability of being the house you are looking for. That is, assuming that von Humboldt lived in only one house.
I think that my answer must include some other information, such as, no, my house has a red brick exterior and he never lived in a house with a red brick exterior. Or perhaps I could tell you, no, my house was built in 1960 and he could not have lived in it. But a simple yes or no, wouldn't do.
However, I also think that whatever information an answer contains, it must be something that you're able to determine about the other houses without having to ask.
It is official YOU DO NEED TO DO MORE WITH BOTH OFF YOU. The interaction (and faces drown) between you guys is hilarius to watch, and we are learning at the same time. Great video.
Greetings from Belgium.
What is the statistical probability of Dr. Fry turning up in a standupmaths video pregnant?! ps congrats. pps well done getting Howard Carter away from the pyramids to supply the music for this (I guarantee he's never heard that one before)
Matt and Hannah are a great team, I enjoyed this video very much.
This is the first i've seen or heard of Hannah Fry. I'm already a fan. She is awesome.
I always thought that ALL Aussies had some sporting ability, until now.....
We only hear about the ones who experiment with balls
Ah, I see you've adjusted your guess based on new evidence!
Estiaan J Does that make me Bayesist?
I heard "try more random" and I couldn't help laughing.
That was fun, but it wasn't that informative. I would have liked other examples.
If Richard Price (the family friend who unearthed Bayes’s idea) had been less honest, we might to this day be talking about Pricey Statistics instead.
What are the chances that a revolutionary idea will be ignored for some time after it is made known?
It seems to happen a *LOT*
I love this! I'm taking a class on Bayesian statistics now, and I would consider myself a Bayesian vs a Frequentist.
"How was I supposed to know the likelihood of it happening today?"
Maths. Use Maths to figure that stuff out.
Did you see that?!
That table was a parker square!
Love the hair on Doctor Fry! (also, love the video, but that's a given)
They always have so much fun together, that it spreads and reaches us through.
9:13 Black holes!? Is that what happens? Particles have a stupid probability to be there and that's what makes the dent in space time!? 😂
That might be why there is no sign of gravity interactions on the smallest scales because the probability that something is there gets smaller and gravity is a probability wave 🙃
Apropos of nothing, please thank the owners of that house for letting us glimpse inside. It's beautiful!
Also, congrats to Dr Fry. I genuinely didn't notice until I read these comments.
I showed this to my wife (a biologist) and 4 year old son last night... today my wife just came to me and said "we've (my wife and son) just been doing experiments with Bayesian statistics!" What's the chances of that!?
8:26 Matt's face when he imagines having an infinite number of throws
Hannah Fry is a treasure
Matt, if you had to guess, what would you say is the bigger number:
A: Tree(3)!
B: Tree(4)
tree 4
For a second I thought Tree(3)! meant Tree(3)×Tree(2)×Tree(1) and was all "Psssh, easy." Then I realized my mistake and had a second think.
Factorials grow quickly, but Tree grows much, MUCH faster. I think adding another step of Tree will blow the factorial operation out of the water.
Factorial is actually pretty weak once you get up to numbers like Tree(n>2). It's like lending a dollar to a trillionaire.
@@ryaneakins7269 *Tree(llionaire)
ignore my ignorance... *ashamed in silence*
and now on Kolmogorov statistics!
Looking at the video, I kept wondering why was black widow teaching math!! The ressemblancev to Scarlet Joanhson is uncanny!!
she massively enjoys using the word massive
What are the changes of that? Thomas Bayes being from Basingstoke, And his methodology is called Bayesian...
Only thing I got From this video is half of all mathematicians are pregnant.
I know it's been a long time since this came out, but I have to say, the best part of this video is watching two good friends have fun with each other!
And this is why you never trust a chart without error bars.
Delightful, but I'm disturbed by your references to 'random' throws, where context would indicate you mean evenly distributed. I have always been taught that random can be bunched up and even distribution can be non-random.
Statistics is a modern branch of mathematics, usually thought of as of the 19th century. It was only widely applied in fields of high impact during the second world war. Probability was the earliest step towards it. Averages, distributions and average of differences seems obvious and important in retrospect! Did understanding uncertainty have theological inhibitors?
It's hilarious how this video manages to explain the concept well even though Matt's terrible throws made it a complete fluke that his guess was close. The first ball *was* in the South of the table, but it could have been slightly North of centre and he'd have still guessed it was that far South because every subsequent throw landed right on the Northern edge.