Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz: Fed rate hikes didn't get at source of inflation
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- Опубліковано 22 кві 2024
- Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize-winning economist, Columbia University professor and ‘The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society’ author, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
When you spend like drunken sailors like Congress does, you have baked in inflation. this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.
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Stiglitz just says what the politicians want to hear please no more Keynesian ideology
What else is solution 😅
Would they give Stiglitz another Nobel Prize if he read and understood Milton Friedman enough to at least give an honorable mention to the Fed buying $4.8 TRILLION of Federal Bonds (with printed money) between February 2020 and April 2022. This inflation is persisting long after the Covid supply problems ended.
Milton Friedman was a charlatan and anyone who sources him as an expert should be written off as being knowledgeable.
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“Everything but money printing was the source of inflation.”
Good time to be a money printer.
Yup, sounds about right. War and supply shock part not the "money printing" part anyone and everyone who explains that as being the source of inflation possess a frail understanding of economics.
He says "We're not Argentina". That's a really low bar.
He has issues with the new president. He should have said we are not Venezuela, but you have a mainstream democrat
If he says it it means we are. Liberals always lie.
At least, we're not Haiti.
Yet...
Does printing 6 TRILLION DOLLARS IN 15 DAYS have anything to do with it 🤔
The current US government reminds me about the last Argentine president that said "printing money was not the cause of inflation" 😂
Bros missed economics classes 😂
Of course not! Its not in the scripts that he was supposed to say.
The problem is that if you actually list the truth of the problems caused by excessive government spending you don´t win awards like the Nobel prize, don´t get the good grants from the goverment, become a pariah in an ecochamber of economists who rubberstamp globalist policies, loose the respect of the IMF and the World Bank, etc. Very few leading economists are brave enough to tell the complete truth.
You remove that money from the economy in two ways. 1. Taxes, 2. Interest Rates. We can't raise taxes on the people who took all of the money so we have to make them pay through borrowing, unforunately that hurts everyone
It is not $6 trillion and 15 days.
It is about $6 billion each each and every day.
I agree with your sentiments.
You are so off-base that it gives no credibility to your statements. Ignorant people like you need to keep their mouth shut.
Once again, there is no Nobel prize in Economics. There is a prize set up in 1969 by a bank in memory of Alfred Nobel. Basically they are trading on the name and status of the Nobel Prizes.
Excellent point!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Sciences
Word: Never accept economic advice from some dude who has his own personal chef, and is clueless about the price of beef, milk, eggs, bread, etc.
Seriously?
So Joe Kernan then?
Yes
You mean Trump too?
Alright I’ll take financial advice from the homeless guy down the street then. Thanks for the tip
Dude we need a rate at least 7,5% to be fair.... inflation much more then 2.8%...
or even 20% to truely break the inflation...but not clear about recent $2T/yr deficits and $1T/yr interest payments with ~ $35T debt ! and huge unfunded liabilities and bad demographics.
We need interest rates to be close to 10% if anyone will ever be able to retire and live off the interest of their savings instead of depleting the capital.
Inflation was caused by shortages? This proves the Nobel Prize is a joke.
nothing to do with printing money?? Sure does! Guy is a dud IMO.....
He won a Nobel prize in lying and deception….. plus a few sprinkles of woke
Stiglitz is 😂hilarious
I bet you were alright with the whole world being closed for two years.
Where can I buy your book, or are you still writing it in your mom's basement.
Government overspending is inflationary. 1 trillion dollars being added to the debt every 100 days is insane. Federal expenditures are in overdrive, and are a threat to the country's financial system.
I wonder who is going to buy his books
Exactly, irresponsible government spending is the source
pretty sure the nobel prize winner said margins are too high
Irresponsible tax system. The government spends a lot to promote businesses. Well, there is no income from the corporate side after that.
What do you mean irresponsible government spending? Like liquidity injections for speculators?
@@microbe_rz31irresponsible govt spending. Like funding both sides to 2 wars and student loan bailouts.
Yes, and that coupled with the Fed keeping rates too low too long and creating an ungodly amount of cheap credit. Idiots.
Dude housing prices went up because prime was zero from 2008 to 2022. Should have been that low that long.
Bang on Bob.
Not really just rates. No one was building homes for like 4 years from 2008 to 2012. We never built enough supply. And banks were not giving many people loans for a long time either.
He's comparing to Argentina. That's rather extreme. The era of free money drove everything up.
I think you meant "should NOT have".
Inflation had nothing to do with money supply. This guy is a genius.
He is an idiot.
Most of the time inflation is caused by irresponsible expansion of the money supply. This time, the supply chain problem may well have been a factor; but M2 expansion also played a heavy role.
He's a Democrat. What do you expect him to say?
Sending helicopter money 💰💰 not an issue?
Nowadays, winning a Nobel Prize is more of an insult then something to be proud of.
The source of inflation is scammers. They’re printing money.😂😂😂😂
All you have to do is turn off government spending, unemployment will rise, and all prices on everything will drop.
It is that simple.
People don't want to accept that kind of pain. Democracy promotes easy money!
@@joanblond8527 Congress and the Fed promotes easy money. Strong backbones are lacking in DC.
Psycho commenters
They are running a $1T deficit every 100 days. Inflation and price levels will stop rising when unelected experts in government are removed and the spending slows.
These people are so out of touch with reality. I guess lowering rates to historically low and giving everyone money didn't matter.
Didn’t even mention the amount of money printed 😂
Let the man finish his sentence. Jeez.
For real!
I'm surprised Prof. Stiglitz would say that interest rates are too high. The neutral rate is defined as the rate of interest where the economy neither expands nor contracts. The economy is continuing to expand, which would indicate that the current Fed Funds Rate is below the neutral rate.
Yes, and I'd add that the rate is too low when compared to the money supply in circulation and latent in the current gov spending as well as reverse repo and treasuries. There's just too money money in the system..look at the deficit. That is a debt to government (i.e. us taxpayer) and on the other side of the equation it is spent into other peoples pockets who keep spending as well.
@@elvispresley3234 exactly. I share your sentiment word for word. Finally, someone who GETS IT!
There are lagging indicators that imply we may have overtightened. There’s a reason most economists don’t tighten this much this fast.
@@AR-rn8ok GDP continues to expand
but interest rates have a time lag. Gdp is cooling down right now. I think i read that most economist right now are expecting the neutral rate to besomewhere between 2.25-3%
So the government printing trillions of dollars had nothing to do with inflation???
China printed more, yet they had deflation.
The world bank has done such an excellent job over the last 70 years. Wow, they have been right about everything. Africa is so modern now. The mind blowing genius blows my mind.
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Professor at Columbia? Immediate skepticism
what do you do for a living? where did you go to school (college)?
@@titusp9488 You have to be a really great academic to appeal to authority this hard. I can tell you one thing, this guy said there would be no inflation or only low mid-term 3-5% inflation when they gov. spent another 2.2 trillion on top of all the PPP and "rescue plan" spending. And he was completely wrong, obviously, and that's why we're here. So you can continue listening to "nobel laureates" but anyone who isn't gullible has seen that prize is nothing more than a publicity generator for leftists. Why don't you call up the dozens of Arab countries plunged into devastating civil wars and lecture them about Obama's peace prize.
he's a legend bro trust he is as good as it gets for an academic in economics
It's renowned. But he's not really making sense.
Columbia University Nobel Prize winning Phony BS ....we now see the results of Columbia and the police are rounding them up. I wouldn't give 2 cents for this phony advice or his book.
He wrote a book of the same name in an effort to erase the prior publication.
Nothing to see here 🖕
I don't care if he had 20 Nobels I disagree with his analysis
Supply shortage. 😂😂
Nothing to do with printing too many dollars.....
Compound inflation of USA over last four years is 25%. Outrageous!!!! Wealth destruction
It’s incredible who they give Nobel prizes to. State politically motivated and sponsored economists
There is no Nobel prize for economists
Nobel despised them. It is a fake prize issued by a bank.
Stiglitz is a clown. That's the same BS you hear from Biden. But if supply shocks from the pandemic were the cause of the inflation then prices would have gone back to normal once those supply constraints were resolved. It's like when a hurricane disrupts the supply chain and drives up prices - those prices don't stay high forever. The supply chain gets restored and prices go back to normal. Also, people moving around the country is a zero sum game. That would create higher prices in the places they're moving to and lower prices in the places they're moving from. The net effect on inflation would be zero. No, the real cause of the inflation is the Fed itself and the excessive spending coming out of the Biden administration.
Figure it out already. It's a "peace prize" named after a guy who invented dynamite and owned 90+ armaments factories.
@@microbe_rz31 Stiglitz is an economist. The Nobel Peace Prize is a separate category.
I wasn't nominated for a Noble prize but know that money printing fix nothing!!
I have to respectfully disagree. If work from home caused people to move, and that caused prices to increase in those localities where they were moved, why didn't we see a corresponding decrease in housing prices in the places they left? Instead we saw every housing market skyrocket, even those where people were leaving. It's easy to see it was the monetary and fiscal stimulus. The Ukraine war and global supply chains have nothing to do with the supply of existing homes, but the Fed buying 1/3 of all home mortgages for QE and the resulting sub 3% mortgage rates does. And then it was the complete U-turn in interest rate policy, with mortgages above 7% causing a lockdown effect. Even if new home construction slowed during the pandemic, the new home supply in any given year is not nearly as large a factor a the supply and demeand existing homes.
Nobel prize in bs'ing does not deserve the respect you're giving.
Who gave this guy a nobel?! Jesus Christ…
😂
Tell us what's wrong.
No, it wasn't Jesus. Stiglitz is a Keynesian economist, as are the most of the best ones.
Liberals
where is your nobel prize? ... JC
What is the current problem being caused by rates being too high. He gives no examples and just states they should be lower.
7% mortgage rates. High mortgage rate is also locking up housing supply, which inflates housing costs and consequently rental costs. 10% auto loan rates. Expensive housing and auto in turn causes high insurance premiums.
@@yehmustafa2959 but lowering rates would further increase demand so maybe any increase in supply would be dwarfed. Alot of this is theoretical since most economists thought these high rates would have caused a recession but economy is booming.
Stiglitz is correct stating that the FED overplayed their hand......
Monetization of the debt is distorting the economy.
People like him are the reason we had inflation not seemed in 40 years and $34T national debt
Yeah, don't think so.
@carlgemlich1657 well we disagree, what do u do for a living?
@@carlgemlich1657 He was one of the 17 nobel laureates who signed a letter saying there would be no major inflation and even if we did see 3 to 5% inflation for a short time it would be worth it to rebuild infrastructure. Well, here we are trillions of dollars later with almost nothing built and so far devaluation of wages and savings is about 15% on paper compared to when he signed the letter in 2021.
In reality it's worse because anyone who doesn't own a house can't afford one, anyone who does own one is paying 40% higher property taxes in return for nothing.
@gorkyd7912 I'm sure you and I have more in common than with the Nobel laureates. The reality is they're the ones listened to on monetary policy. The opposition wants to blow everything up, so to me, that's not a solution. The oligarchs will still be in control, as they always are.
All these experts have all the answers if only they knew the questions,
interest rates dont stop inflation, money supply does, argentina has interest rates of 180% their inflation went up every year, stop the credit supply stop debt monetization.
2% was the guardrail... Inflation is theft.
Government actions have created economic inequality!
Need rates near 20% to break the inflation back.
However with $2T/yr deficits and $1T/yr debt payments we are in going in the wrong direction to survive this mess the Fed and US Treasury made.
Not a word about government free money? A Democrat? What a joke
Its insane to have lock downs and print money like crazy and say there wont be inflation, "its transitory"
No one talks about it because both Trump and Biden did it. But Biden also doesn't get credit from either party for cutting the M2 money supply by $1 trillion, that's very interesting.
Remember who it was that insisted on actually signing those checks? Probably not. Hint: he's on trial for multiple felonies, as we speak.
Everything has changed since COVID stressed the system and highlighted some flaws, such as infrastructure and the supply chain. It seems like there is another problem that has been exposed, but has yet to be identified, which is the current model for measuring the health of the economy is flawed. Why do working people have to lose their jobs, remember good jobs reports show a healthy economy, the stock market is up so business is healthy, but the FED has the rates hiked up because of inflation and it’s not working, it’s making things worse. This guy is right on the money. A 2% target for inflation is too low. We had no problem for years with 3-3 1/2%. Why such a low target now?
A huge mistake was made since the financial crash of 2008 in that money was printed and given to the banks at zero percent interest rates, in reality free money for the banks to spend as they wished.
This increased borrowing as well as inflating asset prices and the Market indexes.
Many people got stinking rich and the World debt massively increased.
It was a case of printing money and paper IOUs which increased the debt mountains and inflated assets like property and shares by a substantial amount.
The result is a mountain of debt that must be serviced globally.
Mortgages and car loans increased.
Those left behind and those starting with nothing are suffering as a result, the younger generation especially who have to suffer inflation, huge rents and high property costs.
The rich got richer and the poor got poorer.
He's so wrong. It seems by now after 4 years I know more about macroeconomics that the good professor here
a Nobel prize winner whose argument is based on theory rather than the facts experienced by working class Americans.
If they cut rates while inflation is at 3% it will spark inflation extremely high again
At some point the rate is secondary to the debt figure. Inflation is highly based on perception and you can't maintain the perception of solvency when you're spending 2T more than revenues every year.
Inflation is too high as is. But way better than Argentina.
The truth is billionaires haul all the money. That is disturbing to the core. 1 billion dollars = 1000 millions. And some even has 200,000 millions but they get greedier than ever. No amount of money can satisfy their greedy cores. They are the ones causing inflation, of course the government prints money too.
Then we have the complainers, aka retires, collecting social benefits and expect the young to work their butts off while hating on immigrants. The sad truth is the so called immigrants are the ones willing to work for peasants. Society is going downhill. People aren't grateful and become so entitled and inconvenient to people around them. So inconsiderate.
The problem is American greed. Suppliers wholesalers retailers The Federal government Green new deal,war on the oil industry increase the price on everything.
2% inflation rate goal was the dumbest thing
Should be 0%. How much should you steal from wage earners and savers? None.
No, it was the printing of nearly 30% of all dollars in circulation over the course of one year. Inflation only exists when you add more money to the system... That's it. Price goes up and down based on supply and demand but inflation only exists when you add more dollars into the system.
You have no idea how wrong you are and it's appalling to read so many self-assured comments like your's here from equally clueless people.
"inflation only exists when you add more [money]* into the system" I just need one example when this is not the case and you're already wrong, so here it comes:
OPEC decides to pump less oil, oil prices start to rise, you don't get the equal amount of oil for one dollar, badaboom: inflation without the FED or the government doing anything at all.
(*there are other currencies in the world you nitwit.)
We 🇺🇲 are in for a lot of problems !✌️
I disagree with the professor on the freedom of inflation flexibility in that repressive interest rates at the Fed for nearly two decades served t o price American labor out of the global marketplace, and pushed capital out of the USA.
One need only look at burned out flyover America to see the results
Companies need to realize their discounts aren't not keeping up with inflation. I just got sent an email about $35 in free drink credits if I stay 3 nights in Las Vegas. $35 isn't even enough for 1 drink !!! 🙄 😂. They basically said : "Get 60% off one drink."
How much per drink then? $58.33? What world is one drink costs over $50?
Almost 100% of the increase in housing prices over the last 15 years has been caused not by shortages but by near-zero interest rates.
Stiglitz has won the Nobel Prize twice but is disconnected from reality if he thinks inflation is the official rate. It's in double digits and many people who were struggling before inflation are now drowning.
Yeah I'm not impressed. He doesnt think inflation is a problem? Obviously he lives in a bubble.
I've rented homes for over 15 years and my rents didn't change much until interest rates skyrocketed.
My loans where around 300 a month and with rate increase my payments almost doubled.
So obviously I can't rent a property for 550 a month anymore and had to increase rents.
Equity loans and real-estate rentals usually carry an adjustable interest.
It's not the same as a primary home.
After doing this for almost 20 years I've never seen anything like it in my career.
Economy is really in bad shape when people can't afford housing.
He is not the one who is suffering. I bet he has the cooks and doesn't know the costs in grocery stores. There was so much money during the pandemic. If money is reached easily to anyone, then it causes inflation. It's always supply and demand.
Two time Nobel Prize winner, he's really good at telling us what we already know, brilliant!
The FUD (fear uncertainty doubt)on icp is ramping up lately...seems like a signal to load up more icp because the fus us designed to suppress price until the big buyers fill their bags first.
I would rather have a recession than Hyper inflation
so larry summers was wrong?
AI? Green movement? None of that is happening
I think that the right number for inflation long-term is a mean of zero.
Everybody is always talking about cutting interest rates and high inflation. If americans dont want inflafion federal reaerve shpuld stop printing the dollar. Too much dollarhave been printed and is still being printed. If the dollar is notthe world currency reserve, usa would have been experiencing hyper inflation long ago. Chinaalone has 3.4trillion dollars as reserve.
Usa has 34trillion debt and it wil print more than 90bi.lion to give toukraine taiwan and israel. Dollar is just printed money that is why many nations are calling for dedollarization. They haveto tax theirpeople while all usa has to dois to print the dollar
The fed doesn't print directly, it adjusts base rate and banks print the money by lending. When you get a $400k loan for a house that's all "printed" money that was generated from fraction in reserve. So the rate is one way to reduce money supply.
since rate stay low. it's about 20 years cycle of profit taking, and consumption reached maximum level compared to profit making and production at lowest limits. at this point you need 20 years stay rate high till reached 10% rate and start another cycle. believe me.
Inflation is caused by M2 money supply, it inflates hard assets.
Rates are still too low.
Does this man not want to acknowledge that A LOT of fiat money was created during the pandemic and that we shrank our economic output during the lockdown and BOTH of these factors gave us the price increases we experienced? Meanwhile, the higher interest rates we now have won't do much to bring down inflation because slowing the economy or even putting it in recession will, once again, shrink output. Plus, like all savers in money market funds, I have all this extra money(higher interest) I can spend or continue to inflate asset bubbles with.The treasury will not cut spending because rates are higher. They'll simply refinance at the higher rates. How much room is there really for cutting spending down to a level that balances the budget?
Love at the end, they had to cut him off before he started actually speaking
So, is this guy saying that the cost of capital should be negative? Oh, he is a Keynesian philosopher, which is not actual economics. Supply side shortages cause inflation, but actually reduce back to original prices. People buying houses don’t cause inflation. $4T of money printing is the cause and he doesn’t mention it. We have had 15 years of savers getting negative rates and subsidizing others. This is nonsense. Savers should get 15 years where they get to make some real returns.
is he wrong about interest rates though? You shouldn't be able to borrow capital at 0% rates except in times of dire need for economic expansion, which the world's largest economy hardly qualifies for.
Tell the Nobel Prize scholar it's not hard for wages to fall; When people are out of work and need money, they take any work they can get! Our government's policies and practices will make that happen! We don't need Nobel Prize scholars to explain that to us. Anybody with Common Sense can figure that out on their own! Incidentally, Thomas Paine wrote something called "Common Sense 200+ year ag0. Perhaps, It should be required reading before our politicians take office!
Supply and demand...!
Anyone know where Andrew gets his shirts? They always look great.
Stenströms
You're going far in this spiritual existence..
What he left out is that the inflation is caused by a lack of investment in the real economy. Things are breaking down and costs have to go up to fix things.
Jerome Powell is a tax specialist not an economist with practical sense of what is prevailing on the road. He did not travel the country like Alan Greenspan. Powell did not understand that economics is science .
This is the mainstream media demonstrating what's wrong with the mainstream media. Trying to make something snappy and exciting instead of the slow, measured discussion of serious issues.
We don't have runaway inflation, just crippling inlation.
Road to Serfdom is obvious inspiration for title, not referenced.
INFLATION CAME FROM SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION AND GOVERNMENT MONEY!! AND WE SHOULD HAD RAISED IT ABOVE INFLATION AND CRUSHED INFLATION
Yes.
BORING!!!
dear j pow: raise the interest rate to double digits !! 10.0% now!!
that will sky rocket 🚀
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Very interesting take on things. 2% Inflation is not the magic number, but what the economy is doing or will do. Higher inflation isn't bad, especially if you have a pretty good job or access to money, like most of the people who are commenting on this stock channel or why would you be here? Of course, you will have various Bots out here with their agendas
Nice, let's cut a couple of quarter percent chunks off of the Fed Funds rate, then. Sounds good to me.
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You are not alone we can no longer afford our mortgage, husband wants us to travel or relocate/I am proposing cashing in, walking away and renting while putting the rest in the stock market.
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Everybody worried about inflation so much that nobody talks about the juggernaut national debt. The national debt is like a planet killing asteroid. It will hit.
Maybe the fed inflation target should be 0%?
Cuts coming! Pamp it
Oh, so the "inflation explosion" act worked? Lol
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Stiglitz, the same guy who backed Venezuela’s economic policies when Chavez was in power, wouldn’t trust him even with a lemonade stand
So out of touch. Should be zero inflation. Less government spending,no money manipulation. The key to the 90s was low spending and low debt. The government and the financial sector are the 2 biggest parisites in the economy.
Interesting that prices increased due to supply chain shortages but did not decrease when the supply chains were fixed. Maybe it was the money supply and increased government spending that caused the inflation more so than the supply chain shortages.
100%. this guy is a clown.
Ah, yes, it totally didn't go down from 9% to 3%. The data is lying.
issue is there are too many variables at play for anyone to predict what to do..expected results don't always happen..just like the market..the economy makes a fool of most people who try to predict most of the time..fed should not change their stance now.
Interest rate won't make a difference on inflation though higher interest rate will lower banking responsibilities then a noticeable difference at cost per good will better purchase sale purchase goods. Then inflation can be addressed and potentially bettered.
Trump for Pres and this guy for the Fed Chairman and the world,including the USA, will be a much better place.
Supply side. Antiglobalism, trade wars, anti immigration. The sources of inflation are stupid politics. The Fed shouldn't be expected to fix that.
Source of inflation is the PRINTING AND CREATION of SO MUCH USD.
Interest rates are prices