Is Rebuilding Ukraine Even Possible?
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- Опубліковано 7 чер 2024
- Into Europe: Ukraine is getting ready for the largest reconstruction project since WW2, what will its reconstruction look like?
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Hi everyone,
Small update, since I recorded the video, the Danube River ports have been targetted, further isolating Ukraine economically. This is line withngs that would happen that I mention in the 3rd scenario.
Cheers,
Hugo
Hilarious how you blame "Soviet Bureaucracy" while ignoring the fact that Ukraine was and still is the most corrupt country in Europe. Zelensky is in fact the center piece of the Pandora Papers. Zelensky is the living embodiment of a corrupt politician, but somehow you forgot to mention that.
That has effectively declared war on Moldova, and if Romania were to insist on its claims, them too.
@@JelMainBS. The ports targeted are in Ukraine controlled territory. Only response will be further security beefup in MD & RO.
Same as when the missile hit Polish territory and 2 farmers died as a result in Poland.
@@linkme2dnet Nonsense. It's piracy, plain pure and simple, as is Russia's attempt to monopolise the entire Black Sea, itself an attack on the territorial waters of three NATO members. Ukraine is free to ship its wheat where it will, overland to Poland, if you like: the problem is that it massively increases the shipping expense to Africa.
The missile was Ukrainian, an accident Poland has tolerated. But at the same time, one cannot forget Russia's attack on an American drone, and the three GRU attacks in the UK, the organised interference with democracy (which involved me personally, I should add, although it's simply more of a lifetime's focus on that pitiful excuse for a nation) and decades of enmity and abuse of many other nations. Pressure is building inside NATO for a less passive response.
The Black Sea does not belong to Russia, so Moscow has no rights over any it anyway. Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine (which includes Crimea and the Azov region), and Georgia have their rights to their parts of the Black Sea. Russia's Black Sea naval fleet has so got to go. Liquidate it if we must.
Could be an incredible opportunity for Ukraine to rid itself of corruption and build itself into a prosperous country.
Ukraine will turn into obsidian and tektite by 2025.
this is the only 'silver lining' to the war frankly speaking. Yes there was widespread corruption in Ukraine before the war but what people dont realise is that this was *because* oligarchs had very close ties to the Kremlin / Siloviki etc. putin is the godfather of Medvechuk's daughter for F-sake! The Yanukovich government had to go.
It's extremely difficult for Ukraine to modernise with such insidious Kremlin / russian influence in everything
Dude, Ukraine and corruption are synonymous words, at best they would have introduced "lobbying" instead of corruption, which would not have changed the picture much
bra, your comment lacks significant context.
Yes there was widespread corruption in Ukraine before the war but you need to realise that this was because oligarchs had very close ties to the Kremlin / Siloviki etc or were russian themselves.
putin is the godfather of Medvechuk's daughter for F-sake! The Yanukovich government had to go.
Ukraine had 80 years of Communism/ Stalinism / Leninism and before 1917 (the year there was a Ukrainian attempt at independence - btw the map of Ukraine pre-1917 includes part of russia and was drawn and recognised by Dutch traders in the 17th Century. Can tell this next time a russian tries to come up with some BS about border changes by Lenin), they had two centuries of russian empire expansion and brutal aggression.
Then consider the complete banning of Ukrainian language and culture throughout the entire 18th and 19th centuries, the active washing of Ukrainian history by Catherine the Great & Alexander II, and the execution of 100,000 Ukrainian intelligencia during the cold war.
Oh, and the death of 10.5m Ukrainians from 3 famines deliberated caused by the Soviets - see Hoover Institute lecture on the subject - ua-cam.com/video/3E9IrWqWewU/v-deo.html
Now, you try to overhaul a country with such constant, long running, and insidious influence and adversity see how easy it is!
People really need to give the Ukrainians credit where credit is due! They will accomplish the task but its painful, involves a lot of suffering, and it deserves everyone's support!
@@anneslot7013 Laughs in German
I think people really underestimate what an aging, declining population means for an economy, life expectancy and future outcomes. Without more young people to work/pay the pensions/healthcare of an ever increasing older population, fill increasing job vacancies, consume, and increase demand in the economy, you face socio-economic collapse. Russia, China and even large parts of western europe face a similar outcome. All the best to Ukraine.
But Ukraine today has founding myth and once war is over even prospect of better days coming, so I would expect baby boom after the war.
Ukrainians should have concentrated on making babies. But in the modern world child-bearing and child-rearing are considered boring, old-fashioned and bad for the Planet.
@@MrToradragon Yeah, hopefully Ukraine would experience a baby boom with 2 children or 3 children per Ukrainian woman ideally like Israel's fertility rate. A booming, young Ukrainian population would be great overall.
The trend is the same everywhere but Africa, but it happens at different speeds in different places. The west may be declining soon but only slow, and it's easily the richest region of the world and thus will be best positioned to deal with it. Just how it is. Literally everyone else will get it much, much worse.
China is different because of their huge investments in AI and robotics. Their government predicted that the population will fall in the future because of lifestyle changing of the Chinese and onechild policy.
One of the sad things for me as an architect is realising that a lot of the reconstruction will be fast and chaotic, prioritising fast growth, bulk and making Investors and politicians happy- this will mean that quality, traditional methods of construction and new urbanism will be set aside- even though so much soviet architecture has been destroyed, it will be replaced by contemporary project which are not that different.
Yes. I do hope not. Is there any way of preventing that kind of disaster?
@@daydays12 convincing the people in power that it is worth it to create good quality urban spaces. Educating the public and see if people rally or not around this issue.
@@Abcflc nah that's not possible. Especially knowing that Ukraine is poor af and corrupt.
The reconstruction process already going on in Mariupol for example. Quality of the buildings is OKAY I guess...
they should give up all the territories so Russia has to rebuild everything💀
As a Ukrainian born in currently occupied territory I can confirm it is one of the most detailed and well thought through videos on this topic I have seen so far. The major challenges Ukrainian post-war economy will face are described in a pretty realistic and balanced manner. Not too much optimism nor pessimism.
One can see a lot of open-source research has been done before making this video. Thank you so much for your work and keep it up!
So, you're less than two years old?
Currently occupied territory. I was born there when it wasn’t, silly
Russia is a country of killers
@@maxibardi Yes, silly me.
@@RandomGuy-qg9xf absolutely agree. Demographically, both for Ukraine and Russia, it is the worst time ever to throw the little amount of young people we have into the furnace of war.
As a Ukrainian, I would say government incompetence (corruption) and demographics are the two greatest challenges in the Ukrainian post-war recovery. So far, I don't feel any optimistic about neither of those.
Particularly if the EU's involved.
@@JelMain The EU is not perfect, it has all sorts of flaws. But it's one of the least corrupt parts of the world. Most of the top countries in the world for tackling corruption are in the EU.
Once the war is over, hopefully the demographic problems will be helped by immigration to Ukraine. The corruption is a huge issue but I think Ukraine as a country is more united than ever before as a people and there is the political will to tackle corruption. The war will provide the shock to the system that will allow corruption to be tackled.
@@ster2600 I've spent twenty years in Brussels face to face with the real thing. It's not presented a clean set of accounts since soon after it was formed - I was Head of Finance of WEU for half that time. It is loathed by the locals, and renowned for its sloth - they tell the tale of a local admiring the huge buildings and asking how many people work there - the reply's about ten. When they took on the Foreign and Security Policy Portfolio from us, they gave themselves three years to accomplish what took us three months to set up, a functional Military HQ, but hadn't accomplished it in ten. Eventually Cameron pulled the plug.
The problem's that our Council focused on the job of keeping Europe safe. Theirs has taken on too much, and the defence portfolio is way down the list behind rabbit-farming in San Remo. The essence of good soldiering is speed, a word missing from their vocabulary. Indeed, their President, Ursula van der Leyen, was nominated to get rid of her from German politics after she fouled up her role of Defence Minister so seriously she left the army without boots for five years. When Ukraine blew up, it was discovered that was simply the tip of the iceberg, where everyone else has given Ukraine kit which would otherwise have gone to the scrap yard (but was still far better than what the Russians have, so it was adequate for the purpose) Germany's sent it's 50 year old Leopard 2s, with nothing better to replace them with.
This is why they have no voice in the matter, they simply don't know their subject.
@patagonianpaintsome people would say there was a plan
The main resource Ukraine has lost that will never come back is all the people who have moved to the rest of Europe. When the war is over, the men will join their families in the EU countries. The war has lasted so long that the children have gotten used to the new countries they live in. They have a better life there, and they will not move back.
True this is rarely talked about in Europe. Probably because these nations themselves benefit from this growth. 🤐
That is a terrible thing. Almost as if the monster has won 😥
True. The kids will have been in school for years and the parents (mothers) will have jobs that earn a multiple of what they could get in Ukraine which, moreover, is largely destroyed... Old people may or may not return, but the young will stay in EU, for sure.
@@der110 This is true. It is uncomfortable to admit that most of the immigration from Ukraine is mostly beneficial to the host-countries, but detrimental to Ukraine long-term.
On the other hand, forcing children from immigrants to move back can be as world-shattering for the individual families as the forced evacuation caused by the war.
European countries should lay a path for families to transition back to Ukraine if they wish. But this will not be an easy issue.
Lol why not just to move аll people to Europe and give the territory to Russia?)
I am from Ukraine, and I have been following your videos since the creation of your channel. Thank you, Hugo, for delving into this particular topic. I firmly believe it holds as much significance as the results on the battlefield itself. Here's hoping for the most optimistic scenario to come to life! 🤞
💪🏽
Sending my luck to you guys aswell
And thank you for your support! :)
@@bannerjay3347 Thank you very much!
Cant reach first defense line.
There is another factor to consider: who will rebuild Ukraine an for who will it be rebuilt? The country was already among those in a very bad place demographically, having inherited nearly off the same issues as russia has through the ussr. Add in the economic hit from the war discussed here to the tendency for a portion of refugees to end up putting down roots wherever they went to and to not come back, and how those refugees tend to be younger and women increasing the relative demographic hit from whatever number don't come back compared to if it were a more even distribution, and you have quite a hard situation for a country to recover from.
Demographically Ukraine not so bad. Ukraine mean age of first birth was 22 years in 1993, now it 27 years, so real fertility rate was 1,5 children per women not 1,2 (from 1993 to 2023). As mean age of first birth growing and will be 32 years old in 2050, so real fertility rate will be 1,5 before 2050, but per year fertility rate will be 1,2.
So population decline will be fast but family structure will be not so bad. Real fertliity rate in Ukraine now for women who is 40 years old. Childless-7%,
1 child-50%, 2 children-37%, 3 and more children - 7%.
98% of houses belongs to families so majority of young couples inherited houses from grandparents in age about 30 years old. As they have no need in buying or renting house, they use money on local services. Typical Ukranian person in age 33 years old married with 1 or 2 children and inherited flat in city and house in village.
@@rohj4825 probably because theyre dying young
@@KennyNGABiggest reason for lower life expectancy is that older Ukrainians is overweight. So in Ukraine there are much lower number of people 70 and more years old compared with West Europe or East Asia.
So for person of age 33 years old it very uncommon have grandparents.
@@KennyNGABefore war mortality rate for person younger than 40 years old was almost at the same level with West Europe.
So Ukraine population decline fast and will be about 17 millions in 2100, but the proportion of childless lonely old people in Ukraine will be much lower compared with West Europe or East Asia.
I think that Ukraine cutting labor protections in order to be more enticing for private investment is very much not a good thing.
Good for the USA used to the "you're fired" culture
Lol like Blackrock care
And the selling off of Public assets
@@KayGornallsWordMagicthey have to keep expanding their markets or they'll cease up
It isn't. But it's the least bad option.
lots of ppl here in Poland hope the war ends soon to start investing in Ukraine for cheap with huge expectations lol........ like as soon as the war is over and there is some good EU trade agreement people will try to expand even their small businesses, we know what happened when Poland joined the EU, lines of trucks with cheap crap that did not sell in Germany started flowing to Poland :D Now it's gonna be the same with cheap crap going from Poland to Ukraine!
‘Be attractive for investors’ we’ve all heard that one before
And to Greece too. Still waiting...
Really appreciate the topics you cover - I don't hear much on these outside of your channel!
More to come!
@@IntoEurope shame on you for spreading Russified EU propaganda
raymoo
@@siltdoctor3478 die-sækku queze?
If it could be done to western Europe after two world wars and Japan, it can be done again
Edit: thank you Mhjy, yes south Korea too!
No one did it to japan. Japan is the nation that in 30 40went to be closed to becoming modernized and defeating Russia and becoming a great power. Same for Germany. Even then some things can’t be rebuilt nazis destroyed german(prussian) university’s 70 year later still german university’s have not recovered to global rankings.
@@Myanmartiger921 true but Germany is still an industrial power house.
Exactly this!
@@thomastakesatollforthedark2231it was a powerhouse before ww2 same as Japan ....Ukraine was poor and horribly corrupt
@@thomastakesatollforthedark2231 Can't say if its still the truth.
Somehow Germany survived after WW2, somehow Poland rose from the ashes, somehow all of Europe was rebuilt, stay strong Dear Ukraine, we all pray for you
We all? Nah 😂 Russia!!! 🤍💙❤💪
Germany was rebuilt by US, Poland was rebuilt by USSR (now they hate us), any other devastated country was rebuilt by some major power. No one needs strong Ukraine, the West only wants to destroy Russia
@@fitgirl8812 Russia is nice country before it got captured but the dictators putin/stalin/lenin since then this country is a 3 d world shit that terrorizes its own people and invades countries, weak country which wanna be USA but can't reach it and will never reach it cause weak as fuck and all it can do just threat smaller countries 😂
@@dimkuch9519 Nice piece of of western official propaganda )) Do more CNN and BBC )))
@@fitgirl8812seeing you support russia. I want to ask. Why? And dont try giving me the nazi stuff bs. Just a straight up. Honest answer
Unlike Korea or Japan, Ukraine's on a land border next to Western Europe. A lot of talented people in tech who speaks english. I believe Ukraine can bounce back. If Successive governments can shake the corruption that plagues post soviet states.
Yes, good luck with that.
Those talented people would be hired abroad and leave. To not have EU visas was a major point of getting into the trap that they are in now. Also, that's the power of money printing that only a few countries have - to buy most of the talent. People from Ukraine will live in another country, pay taxes there, provide to the economies there, all while telling stories of how they love their homeland.
The corruption level is horrific in Ukraine, they need the media to sweat blood to mask it up with next to no success. Anyone who gets the slightest idea of f makeing a change would end up bad....
Some will emigrate and resettle. But most will gain skills and come home. And create good jobs in Ukraine. Ukraine 🇺🇦 is slaying the corruption pattern as fast as possible. It’s a lovely country and rebuilding at peace ✌️
@@davidcpugh8743 tell me you've never been to Ukraine without telling me you've been to Ukraine lol. The whole shtick of that country for the last 30+ years was trying to find someone to pay for them. The plan now is to be on West's allowance, playing the victim card for the next 40 years or something. Hell, all that their president is doing is going on tours asking for money, while making an effort to convince people abroad that the people of Ukraine are "just like them". Damn, they have even legalised weed in Ukraine, what a progressive country lol, now give them some more of that sweet cash. Set some more biolabs, let Blackrock buy some more land, anything goes so that they don't have to work by themselves.
"Slaying corruption" lol, I remember when the oligarchs were killing each other in plain daylight in their power struggle just 5 years ago, good luck with that.
Something everyone who can, would prefer not to think about, but it must be thought about, so thanks!
Very interesting analysis, People in Ukraine hope that the worst is over only for things to get worse, just like Odesa which has been hit very very hard lately, destroying ukraines remaining port infrastructure.
Hi,
I think more significant still is the strikes on Reni, in the Romanian border. Odessa was already virtually useless since the war broke out. Those Danube River ports essentially were a lifeline to Ukraine, since they still had access to their trains (which have different gauges than in the West).
Thanks for the kind words :)
Cheers,
Hugo
This brings us to the 4th scenario, the one signalled by col Macgregor, if the war is prolonged: Russia reaching the border with Romania and Ukraine becomes a landlocked country.
@@mike42356yep. Nightmare situation for Erdoğan as much as him and Putin have been pragmatic in their various conflicts across the world this would be the straw that breaks the camels back.
@@joeylopez7978No one is saying anything about that. Ofcourse that Russians are gonna payback. Original comment just said that Odessa has been hit hard, not finding any excuses.....
@@joeylopez7978 Russia also got the Kerch bridge attack on themselves by invading Ukraine. What’s the point? Conflicts are always initiative or reactionary
Love Ukraine from USA 🇺🇸❤️🇺🇦
Love USA from Ukraine 🇺🇦 ❤🇺🇸
thank you 😘
Glory to USA🇺🇦🇺🇸
G-d bless our Countries!
God bless USA! Warm greetings from Ukraine ❤
Thank you for all your rupport and help!
Greetings from Croatia! Our last war ended 28 years ago, we've been a member of the EU for 10 years, NATO for 15 years, we are even in the Schengen area...
Croatia took less damage in four years of fighting than Ukraine did in two and we're still not done with rebuilding!
There are minefields and people still die (or get injured). Hatred towards other ethnic groups is still present. There are missing war victims whose graves are not known. Ex-soldiers still recieve pensions and benefits draining the budget funds. Society never fully mentally recovered from war (us vs them) mentality.
However most people do believe it was worth it since we didn't have much choice and had to defend our independence.
Ukraine has massive support of the West so I hope your recovery will be much faster
Still, I believe that the recovery of Croatia is a success story. You're a respected member of the EU, and your economy is growing despite the tourism crash during the pandemic. Recovery is an ongoing process, but if Ukraine is on the same trajectory as Croatia it would definitely not be the worst case scenario.
Though of course I hope Ukraine gets a total victory that includes lots of war reparations and border recognition.
Despite the mines you mentioned, I still want to drive along the Dalmatian coast with my fiancée one day soon. 😊
@@MeeesterBond17 Don't worry Dalmatian coast is clear of mines, problematic areas are in the interior along the border with Bosnia. I hope you have a great holiday :)
greetings from Zaporozhye, Ukraine. Thank you and your wonderful people, wonderful and beautiful country for the support you give us!
@@zeNoldor If only you had a President that actually LOVED his country instead of complaining he wasn't allowed at the grammys!!!! He is responsable for this mess and unless and until Ukrainians have the honesty within themselves to admit they were duped by Zelensky and tricked in fighting a war NO UKRAINIAN want, this conflict can go for quite a while! How many young men were sent to the battlefield that didn't even want to fight?!
It’s dope that Europe is taking the lead on this. Ukraine needs something on the scale of the Marshall Plan in the 50s. I imagine looking to South Korea would be helpful.
😂 Neither Germany or France are going for that and the UK is too broke. Only Larry fink can save Ukraine.
You have no idea of what's really going on. The country is being sold to Blackrock. Ukrainians won't be able to own anything after reconstruction.
You know what South Korea was like up until the 2000s, right?
@@skp8748unfortunately a Brexit broke UK will be more than happy to lend money to Ukraine at extortionate interest rates.
@@skp8748how's the uk broke
I really hope for a war economic miracle for Ukraine. 🤗
wirtschaftswunder
Pray for the Ukraine's existence , instead.
Lol, they might not even exist after this.
@@eliasziad7864 Same could happen to Russia. What's your point exactly.
@@adlerzwei Same could happen to U.S.A and E.U.
in terms of rebuilding estimate - it already has been lowered since they started to "curl up" the country - cutting services to smaller settlements since they lost so may people and forecast for the future are also grim. It will likely end up with a country model similar to Argentina or Brazil - with few huge cities and enormous farms
The problem with the investment route to rebuilding is that foreign investment is extremely good at creating wealth and then extracting most of it. It’s just replicating the problem of the oligarchs but with foreign oligarchs joining the party.
Yeah exactly that's why post soviet countries who joined EU are unlivable, those germans and americans are extracting every penny out of those economies and most people resort to begging on the street in rags, heartbreaking really
But seriously, have you ever seen a chart of GDP per capita for like Poland or Czechia in the last 30 years
@@freddekl1102 Poland didn't privatize as quickly or with as few protectionist policies as Russia and Ukraine did. It was also given near immediate access to the European market and forgiven the lion's share of its past debts.
This never happened for Ukraine and Russia, which dissolved into oligarchies.
Yes.....Ukraine will have to be very careful....there are many sharks about.
It requires a very steady hand by the government. Nationalise or regulate core exports f.ex. and not let "cowboy entrepreneurs" go free by corrupting politicians and administration.
Not easy, but possible if openess (press freedom) and democracy is maintained.
@@AleksiJuvakka They were also heavily industrialized as a major port area and part of Baltic trade, and so started off in 1991 exporting refined oil and electronics rather than just agricultural products. It was never going to be a major source of cheap labor and raw goods... which is all the EU and its investors seem ready to see Ukraine as.
Great video, but why didn’t you mention that Ukraines economy took a massive hit after Russia annexed Crimea and their put forces into the Donbas? This scared away almost all foreign investors.
Yes indeed!
Ukraine has natural resources out the wazoo, when this is settled investors will flood in, especially because govt money will flood in, too. The opportunity for grift will become even bigger than it is now
Companies didnt want to invest even before Ukraine civil war and annexation of Crimea. Ukraine is the most corrupted country in Europe. Even in this war at 400 mln have been stolen thats why Zelensky fires everyone all the time.
flag on the avatar made me laugh.
The captions need some work (Nova Scotia Dam 💀), but overall, great video! I truly hope that Ukraine can rebuild itself soon. Even before the war, they were already the poorest country in Europe, which is sad considering their massive potential.
I love your channel, man. Keep up with the good work
The issue with dependence on private money for the purposes of rebuilding like you said is that Ukraine will need to highly "liberalize" its economy. The dependence on private money will simply reform the oligarchy they've already been having difficulties with (just different management), and the stripping of worker's rights and protections will only rob the Ukrainian people and land for all their resources. I'd highly recommend they minimize their requirement/future dependency on private investment as much as possible.
And when do expect get the money?
@@pedropalotes7638 I'm assuming you meant where do you expect. I'd argue the three following I think would be the most justified.
1.) Selling of all seized Russian assets
2.) Direct loans from the US & EU (United States did this after WWII, it was called the Marshal plan, worked out decently)
3.) Russian Reparations (keep it just under the amount the Russian economy is losing from sanctions, so a payment of reparations means the removal of sanctions)
Personally I think these are the best avenues for long term prosperity. We've seen aid before, during and after a war in Europe help to keep out Russian influence while not inherently stripping worker's rights, or democratic practices through the means of over privatization. Privatization is always a dangerous move for workers rights and democratic practices.
@@angelahornung8488 the three following have lots of problems.
1.- The russian assets are mainly in EU banks and EU laws only let you seize them (now they are frozen) if EU is at war against Russia, do you see the french or german government (the main of the assets are in their banks) declaring war against Russia? I dont
2.- EU economy has enough problems to make new loans, EU Comission told Spain to cut government's budget in 22.000 million euro, what do you think will happen in countries that have to make cuts in the budget when is published they are loaning money to Ukraine? In Germany AfD has grown a lot, since this war begun.
3.- Sanctions arent really hurting so much as our media and our politicians says as Russia has hadnt problems to find other markets and as EU countries continue to buy from Russia, France and Spain were last years'main buyers from russian LNG
I was reluctant to explore the bad news affecting Ukraine (initially resistant based upon your title). But I'm glad I did. This is a very thoughtful analysis I could not have gotten elsewhere, and now I've found a new relevant and trustworthy channel to watch. Your rational, yet emotional, delivery is engaging. Thanks for all your hard work!
Based on fertility rates, Ukraine might just become the next South Korea, but not in the way it wants...
I mean, Ukraine isn't joining the EU any time soon even if they win the war tomorrow. It'll take many years for them to meet the requirements even with plenty of foreign aid. By that time the EU's redistribution mechanisms will look different anyway, so I don't think it's much use speculating on how they'd apply to Ukraine.
The EU could also consider making a special offer/emergency case. For example, the Balkan states in the aftermath of the Yugoslav wars. The circumstances are really unprecedented. Especially since the EU knows that if Ukraine doesn't have a safety net, it would be invaded again by Russia
@@basiledex2164 Keep dreaming putlerbot
France and Germany carry EU. And France is a country that handle well crisis because of it's socialist economic. (Mostly Keynesianist)@@basiledex2164
@@basiledex2164 The US is in a recession like 50% of the time and yet they still manage to be a world power. Why would the EU have any reason to dissolve anyways?
@@basiledex2164 continue dreaming
I enjoy your style, thank you!
I appreciate that!
This is a good video, thanks.
Name me any country that was massivelly rebuilt by the West after 2001?
Very interesting.
This topic is rarely talked about but is critical
Very concise and interesting, if sobering, analysis. Thnk you for this, and keep it up!
Is rebuilding europe after ww2 even possible? yes ofc and if thats possible, this certainly is aswell..
😂
You omitted the ongoing climate collapse.
Not so easy
@@toyotaprius79 I didnt omitt anything, i dont think you comprehend how badly the climate and enviroment was screwed up in Europe after the war either.
@@alexanderrose1556 Question is not in can or cannot, but rather what for? Ofc european banks can print out trillions of euros and entice european business to build Ukraine up, but whether it wants to or not will depend on their interests, not Ukraines.
Let me repeat - Ukraine's bright(!) future is no matter of interest to anyone beside the ukrainians. Other powers are taking part in this conflict with their personal interests in mind.
The population of Europe after WW2 did not practically halve along with the fertility rate being significantly below replacement. Key difference and problem to tackle, I feel.
All is possible, when people want it to be possible.
I think between the drive of the people and the help they are getting they will rebuild faster then many think, war is terrable in a lot of ways but as we have seen it pulls a society together the people that are still there want to be there and want to see there country flourish again
Flourish again? And when exactly did it "flourish" before?
@@rob6927 I’d say before Moscow tried to suck it dry? In the Soviet Union it was full of factories producing a large about of ships tanks etc, if it was already free it would have been rich but Moscow took it for potato’s and now that they are somewhat free, they have huge grain exports, huge gas and oil deposits in its territory, and still have a large manufacturing infrastructure
@@codyponto8403 What? 😂
So then you are basically saying that it was "flourishing" when it was actually under Moscow's rule?😂🤣😂🤣🤣😂
@@rob6927 wow Someone can’t read
@@codyponto8403 Well, only a 🤡 can say "in the Soviet union it was full of factories etc..." and who was in charge of the SU?
Thank you for the video. We face numerous existential problems in Ukraine, but I hold an optimistic view on demographics. From my experience living abroad for three years, I predict a strong desire among Ukrainians to return. I believe around 60-70% of those who left will come back after the war ends. The outcome will depend on the format of the war's resolution, but Ukraine has succeeded in cultivating internal soft power and a sense of belonging to something greater than oneself and one's family over the past 30 years.
The main issue is the level at which the west helps Urkaine. With this current "keep Ukraine alive" levels we pay huge cost in human lives
Most of the millions who left the country since february 2022 won't come back in Ukraine to live. MOst of themm were already dreaming about leaving the country enven before the war started. After this war the most economically viable part of Ukraine will be under the russian side. The country will be spiritually broken as it's economy.
I would not be that hopefull.. We had few migration waves in Poland, many people left and have never came back, even if we are currently safe and have strong economy.
People just settled somewhere else and are happy with their life. Who would come back to completly devastated city?? Without work, schools and so on... Only old stubborn folks.
Mostly women left and many of them since the war started settled, found boyfriends and surely some married. Many women lost husbands, what they have to come back for? Also many came back from Poland. 5 million Ukrainians also live in Russia. Likelihood is more will go to Russia. The thing is, many people speak only Russian. If they are engineers or teachers, lawyers, they do not want to go to Romania or UK in their 50s and start earning new language. Would you? It takes your career back and some people hate speaking another language. Russian language is also very specific. It is very hard for them to speak without an accent and they know they are being mocked for it. Maybe but easier for Ukrainian speakers.
Ukrainians are bilingual. no normal Ukrainian wants to go to Russia. many people were forcibly taken there, children for example. Someone was able to get out of there @@olivka7560
Good summary 👍
Thank you 😊
Glad you liked it!
5:42 Lol, are you serious here? The total population of Siberia is only 33 million, how do you imagine squeezing 3% more in a matter of several months into it without causing a massive unrest?
Awesome video! Very insightful, albeit slightly worrisome. It teaches me to think in scenarios rather than just jumping to conclusions. I feel very very sorry for all those Ukrainian people of good will who just want to live their lives in a stable, free prosperous country. (which actually goes for their prosecuted Russian and Belorussian counterparts as well) These are strange times, war times, ominous times. Administrations like Putin's do not help making the world a better place.
I think there's certainly scope for some large marshall plan esque recovery loans from the EU and further afield. It would be more politically palatable than grants, and it would give the EU an interest in growing the Ukrainian economy since then they would be able to pay them back, even if it took until 2100.
Fuck that. Everyone is suffering it is not politically palatable.
Far better for the UN to tackle it.
You forgot the conditionality of those loans where Ukraine is already selling off public assets.
That kind of growing economy?
And be honest to yourself, with this current climate collapse and systemic oil/profit driven inaction toward demise, there would not be a 2100
@@toyotaprius79 There's no need for conditionality. Very low interest rates mean they could take their time paying them off, much like western Europe did with their marshall loans. It's not supposed to be a debt trap. In fact the low interest rates are kind of indirect grant since they'll likely trail inflation.
And with that attitude the marshall plan shouldn't have been done because some people thought we'd all perish in nuclear hellfire before 1980.
Why won't we rebuild Europe first. Eastern and some middle European countries still look like 1960. If we would take care of our problems first than taking care of other's problems wouldn't be a debate.
You continue to support Russia further in order to continue to beg for help instead of becoming a European country.
hello from Ukraine
@@zeNoldor I'm begging for help? What about Ukraine your home country BEGGING for our BILLIONS of our money and BEGGING for F-16. Btw my friend couldnt go to the dormatory because you dirty Ukrainians are living there. Start making peace you warmongers.
This whole war is such a depressing story man, and Im not even affected by like the people of Ukraine. Sure Im in the EU and total victory would benefit all of us, but Im not the one fighting a much larger country who invaded and basically crippled an already stagnant economy with a declining population whose rate has been significantly accelerated....
Good summary video about economical situation in Ukraine, thank you
Reconstruction of Ukraine 🇺🇦, if it is completed, will take years, as the country's infrastructure is in shambles. And let's not kid ourselves, the best piece of the Ukrainian pie will go to American companies. On the other hand, until Ukraine can join the EU 🇪🇺 it will also take years, since it has to make many legal and economic reforms; in addition, the EU will have to make a huge outlay of money in cohesion funds, which will surely be a problem for the EU coffers.
Americans will focus on selling arms (+ probably permanent military base) and probably gas/oil in the black sea, maybe even a nuclear power plant .... There is a reason it was french companies who built the sarcophagus around Chernobyl a few years ago, the US is just too far (not to mention they don't even use the metric system)
@@trthib US based Agrotech and big agri-business companies are buying land in Ukraine for decades now, when prices were stable. Now just imagine the cost of land which is ridden with mines and explosives and will be unproductive till decades more !
Energy & Electricity, Mineral & hydrocarbon, food and farming, IT & Services sectors already have huge US based companies present. It's the Iraq-Cargill-Haliburton saga all over again. UK as usual will get to lick the bones and chew on the crumbs. EU based companies will have some subcontract at best but simply will not have enough political capital in Kyiv to win anything more substantial.
Bigger worry should be the EU's capacity to finance long term reconstruction considering the mountain of debt due to the COVID and Energy crisis. Slow growth and borderline recession on some countries like Germany will only add to the woe.
@@trthib only US has the money to actually fund a reconstruction just as it is American military aid keeping Ukraine fighting.
Assuming Russia doesnt defeat ukraine and turn it into a rump state.
So Ukraine will become a US protectorate. So much for inependence.
One thing to remember is that the400-500 billion number would be spread out over many years, probably decades. They wouldn't need it all at once.
2-3 years . The /day The war IS over construcción Will begin
Yes. Keep sending the billions.
Exactly
But in weapons... 💀
Without youth, wealth generation becomes an unproven hypothesis. You can not project wealth without people who will work, consume, sustain a country and, in time, have more children. Europe is ageing and its main source of youth is people who has increasing difficulty integrating, let alone many don't have the required skills (as millions are refugees without special qualifications).
Ukraine may be repopulated by African migrants who will be all too glad and proud to rebuild a real European country!
@@Slavianophile Lol, they will instantly leave to Germany my friend, like thousands already did from Poland Slovakia, Hungary etc.
@@Slavianophileтак не зрозумів
@@Slavianophile 😂Oh they will alright, unless they're gonna turn it into a third world shithole like they have back home
@@Slavianophile Ось же зрада
Emm Russia doesn't occupy 50% of Ukraine... it is even visible on the map. It is at max I think 20-25%.
the subtitles were likely simply generated, in the video I think the guy says 15%
Yes but the most important parts are under russian controll. Crimea has Oil and a port while donbass has also Oil and good soil
Thank you for the video. Well, it'd be interesting to return to this video 5 or 10 years later
yes it is, it will need a good planning, workplaces generation reconstruction has to provide jobs for that
Na Ukrainie jest taki poziom korupcji, że to się nie zdarzy. U mnie na polu dziś pracowało dorywczo dwóch Ukraińców. Powinni być w okopach na Zaporożu. Śmieją się z tych co walczą na Ukrainie. Kupili sobie po aucie - BMW i jeżdżą po okolicznych dyskotekach wkurwiając miejscowych.
I'm really curious how many Europeans knew where Ukraine is before 2022. And how the statistics would be before 2014.
Excellent job.
Over how long a period is the "billions" supposed to hit? If its a "generation" worth of time, then that'll mean an average of ~33 billion euro pr. year for the 1000billion estimate, a large sum, but, reachable for periods of time and if "delays" of 5-10 years is "acceptable" then, its very reachable.
So what is Ukraines current population? i.e. The Ukraine under Kiev control? My own estimations is probably around 20 million. Maybe even as low as 17 million. And the longer this war goes on, the worse it will get. I doubt that even a peace would bring much relief.
@@badofi Yeah, it's difficult to work out, I've come up with figures as low as 17 million, and as high as 23 million. I reckon it is likely more toward the higher end, 22-23 million. But whatever figure it is, it isn't getting better for Ukraine. Every year it is likely dropping around half a million.
I would argue that its not only possible but in doing so it would gain partnerships
Hey another question, for example France / Poland will not oppose to ukrain products like they have done before ? Because they were complaining about the price were quite hard compete? In the case of the population back - in this kind of migration the population after 1/2 years of living abroad is known that is very unlikely that they will comeback due they are living in better conditions than even pre war, what kind of actions the government can do to call that people back? Because In general they will have lower salaries and extending to lower quality of life, withouth counting the possibility of getting a new passport?
Russia can hold its new borders for a very long time, it's just banal that it has more army and resources. If there is no agreement, there will simply be the same shelling of Donetsk as in 2014
I think the best option for Ukraine would be peace on Russia's terms. Russia is only interested in territories with a large Russian-speaking population. Thus, Russia may be interested only in Transnistria, the situation with which can be solved much easier diplomatically, by returning the inhabitants to Russia or giving up the entire territory of Transnistria.
@@sptrco Well, if you judge like that, then the goals of the war were not Transnistria, it seems that no one is pressing on them, just a small piece of the micro country of Transnistria
@@landate1 I follow the situation in Transnistria and Moldova. Transnistria rebelled because it did not support the pro-Western orientation of the Moldovan authorities. And now the situation is getting worse due to the reduction in the number of Russian diplomats and the pumping of Moldova with American weapons.
So I consider it important for Russia to reach the borders of Transnistria to deter Moldova or Ukraine from possible encroachments on the territory with Russian peacekeepers and Russian people
what encroachments, fascist creature, are you talking about?!!!@@sptrco
Greetings from Ukraine! Really grateful for your thoughtful coverage of this topic, just wanted to flag a couple factual errors that immediately stuck out to me, for the sake of future improvement. You display Rinat Akhmetov's name incorrectly, using just his surname and patronymic, which is never practised in Ukraine. Also, the Lugano conference happened during the fifth month of the full-scale war.
всю незалежноссть запад выводил деньги из украины и рассказывал что это олигархи, а теперь папуасы дякуют ему за то что он их на мясо отправляет ))
@@asd99579Het Ivan! I thought you were English! Speak English, Spanish, French or Ukrainian on our damn technology. And shut up no one asked you bot.
And we thank you my brave friend
Well researched.
Hey Hugo
Great analysis you did here. What is your background? Political science or something along those lines? Was very insightful and thought provoking ✌🏼
Hi,
Thanks for the kind words!
I actually have an engineering background (though it was part of a multi-disciplinary degree), I then worked for a start-up for a bit and then did a master's in media.
Cheers,
Hugo
in the end it will be up to the eu how much it wants to spend on ukraine if the war ends during a resurgence in eu economies it might want to rebuild ukraine more than during a reccesion
Thanks foe explanation, mr Potter
my new favorite geopolitical creator
Blackrock, Vanguard are happy with this war. ❤️❤️❤️
Most realistic scenario: Russia gets to occupy almost half of Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine becomes the home of thousands of refugees. Kiev becomes a major modern city but a very unequal one as well. The rest remains the same
Kyiv is already a large modern city. No one will give Russia further to occupy anything.
thanks for a good video. now I’m even more depressed lol
Amazing video! But also.. I think you should fix your lighting - half of your face is too dark and the background too. But otherwise, keep doing an important work!
14 minutes of water
Russia will never allow that Ukraine will join eu/nato which is Russia's biggest enemy sitting right on its border. If Ukraine is in eu/nato, then you will have neverending wars forever.
EU and NATO are different things.
Of courrse I know, my country is a member of both. but do you know why NATO was formed and by who?
Soviet Union doesn't exist anymore, but NATO stayed, plus instead of Soviet Union, you now have European Union which if you look at it closely it is a hidden communism under 'democracy' umbrella.
@@fastertoveu stupid? OP means the EU or NATO
@@papierbak Yeah, you are right, my language was too harsh.
@@nightcitymusic1 Not sure you understand what communism is, if you think that.
At 8:58 I believe map with recipient states is incorrect, spain, belgium and luxemburg are all recipients as well
The audio is extremely quiet. I have all the volume indicators on maximum and i can barely hear the sound.
If this thing will go no for a bit longer the Europe will go bust itself with little chance helping Ukraine in the future. The hope of Russia paying the bill is wishful and the more time is passing is delusional.
I mean hell I would invest in Ukraine post the war. Its a lifetime opportunity to help finance growth but also profit from its success.
THE OLIGARCHS ARE SALIVATING
I like your totally unbiased assessment LOL
"unbiased" LOL
"Rebuilding" is a funny way to say leeching.
And where are You from ?
@@ukrainian_mf Mexico
@@ukrainian_mf Sorry brother, but Europe won't help you, it will left Ukraine as Greece at best. As the Balkans at worst.
@@basiledex2164 Most of us are not stupid. The real problem with us is that USA exists (or its aggressive foreign policy at least).
the next money farm for blackrock
Instant *_UNDERRATED CHANNEL_* warning. ;-)
Good review
They had to comply with the Minsk agreements, that's all.
If a country violates a peace treaty, what can happen other than war?
Interestion how everything went downwards after the Sovjet Union 1:13 and decades later it still lives on what the Sovjet Union left behind 3:10
Yet the USSR is always depicted as a faliure and capitalism the supposed way out of misery...
Suddenly we act like Ukrainian isn’t corrupt
Sadly for Ukraine, it's easy for Russia to engage in the war for many years (also at a low-level intensity) to inhibit accession for the EU and NATO effectively. In some way, the EU and NATO must find an innovative solution to solve the expected deadlock situation and enable Ukraine to develop into a prosperous country despite its aggressive neighbor.
in my opinion its possible but it would be very long process
Whats a "sea mill"? 13:20
(Tried Google but no)
🇸🇪🤝🇺🇦
Steel mills*
Whoever thinks this war (or any war) is a conflict between good and evil, founded on courage and heroism, is deeply mistaken. Wars have always been about money and this one is no exception. Russia's goals have been analyzed hundreds of times already, so I won't bother discussing them again, but nobody has mentioned the economic benefits for the West. Overall, the war is about generating profits in the short term and in the long term and this is the sole reason why the conflict has been dragging for so long and why the EU and the USA are supplying Ukraine with weapons. This is not an act of solidarity, nor a way to defend democracy and peace, but a well-calculated move:
1. Short-term profits - gained by selling weapons. NATO had been pushing Eastern Europe to replace its Soviet-era weapons with NATO-compliant ones for decades and an occasion finally arrived with this war. The war also served as an argument to get rid of the old equipment in Western countries and modernize the armed forces. Before the war, the general public was against militarization and any modernization campaign would have faced valid criticism. This profiteering for arms manufacturers will be paid by the taxpayers with the governments' blessing.
2. Long-term profits. The longer the conflict goes on, the more Ukrainians are killed and the more economic damage is inflicted. The Ukrainian currency continues to lose value. Ukraine becomes more and more dependent on the West. Eventually, all the lands, factories, harbors, mines will cost a fraction of their pre-war cost and Western companies will buy them. What's left of the Ukrainian workforce will be used as cheap, but skilled and qualified labour. In the short term, the EU and the USA will lose money in funding the recovery, but in fact, they will fund their own companies, who would have bought-out Ukraine by the end of the war. I.e, they will invest in themselves, in their own companies. This is already happening. Companies, such as Blackrock and JP Morgan already control 16 of the 40 million square hectares of Ukraine's chernozem (black earth) - the most fertile soil in the world.
3. Dependency. The last goal for the West is to make Ukraine forever dependent on the West. In this way, it will never join any alliance with Russia, but it would also never be able to repay its debt. This has already happened in the former Eastern Block. When the Berlin wall fell, prices skyrocketed artificially, meanwhile the national currencies crumbled. The "profitable" (enough) factories, mines and lands were bought-out by Western companies and the rest were left to crumble by themselves, leaving mass unemployment behind. As a result, domestic production has crumbled and many countries in Eastern Europe have been running at a constant trading deficit. The simplest example is big supermarket companies such as Kaufland and Lidl, which export the capital abroad. A country with a permanent trading deficit will never be able to pay its debts.
They have Grain Oligarchs...get rid of them...
I mean why wouldn't it be possible? Rebuilding wartorn countries isn't a new concept in the west.
The most important question is if Ukraine can beat its corruption.
Believe me, it can. The dynamics during the last few years is very positive and now during the war it's 3x, society wants to get rid of it very much, the problem is the corrupt judges. It's very hard to reform those, cause they are independent and basically outlawed. Once that's settled corruption will be nulled. Each case of corruption is widely discussed through public and makes people very angry. Ukraine now and 10 years ago are two different countries.
@@user-yd4to1tv1t Indeed. In other hand is veterans who fighting not for corrupted shit in suits. I believe soldiers will make them afraid to steal money. There's many questions to politicans right now, but there's an bigger enemy in the frontline so we can't do anything.
@@basiledex2164 check your sources, it's russian propaganda, you dambass
As a Irish person, I would love to see Ukraine as part of the EU. However, I don't like the prospect of having less representation when we're actively paying towards Ukraine's rejuvenation. I just don't think that EU representation should be based off of population because that weakens richer countries like Ireland who pay more but receive less.
@@xunqianbaidu6917 I’m talking about EU finances, Ireland gives more than it receives
Thank you dear Ireland
Ukraine is one of the few countries in the world that can live without fossil resources.
How specifically do you envision the most optimistic scenario? Even if it is possible to return the territories to the borders of 91, the war will not end, Russia will withdraw, accumulate forces and the war will continue until it runs out of human resources.
What could motivate Russia to sign a peace treaty? I have no idea.
No ! Because Ukraine has become like Afghanistan of Europe
You don't know what you're talking about 😂 Ukraine before the war was safer than streets of Bengal.
Now the West is semi-calm and a year or two after the war the East will be as well.
@@ohajohaha nobody’s got the money in abundance for a hopeless nation please understand, Ukraine failed to deliver what west wanted besides Ukraine’s top leadership is corrupted.
Ukraine is not any better than Pakistan
Ukraine’s fate lies with RUSSIA
The take about the borders after the war is really dumb tbh. The peace settlement with russia where any percent of Ukrainian territories will go to them will be just a pause in the war. We saw it earlier with the Chechen Republic and even Ukraine, the only way for peace - deocupation of all the Ukrainian land
its all fine and dandy to say something like that but how do you make such an outcome happen?
How on earth do you expect Russia to accept such a disfavor able treaty?
@@tetraxis3011 I don't see any disfavor offer here. All the ruzzian fuckers on Ukrainian lands just gonna die or gonna leave. To leave is just better isn't it?
can you make a video ,how viable could be unification of Republic of Moldova with Romania? thnx