Tesla's Robot is a Sleeping Giant. Watch Out.
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- Опубліковано 11 жов 2024
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
www.farzadmesbahi.com
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Twitter @farzyness
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This video is made from a post I wrote on X (linked below) and an AI model of my voice. What do you think?
x.com/farzyness/status/1747716291991941402?s=20
The voice is too monotone... Try another one... like lyrebirdai which is one of the first one made a few years ago... nice try though heh
It doesn't have the pizzazz of your voice nor your personality and I miss your coping mechanism of a laugh and the importance of a pause throughout
It was obvious about 20 seconds in for me.
10 minutes in and I was surprised to look down and read this. Works for me!
Hahaha I knew something was up
For an Ai voice it’s not bad. If I was new to Farzod I might not have noticed but since Ive listened to you a lot, it was pretty obvious
And possibly AI written
We're going to experiment further on bettering the AI model. Thanks for the feedback!
@@farzynessIt needs to start taking breaths, smirk from time to time, introduce some side-story and so on 🙂. Nevertheless interesting experiment 🙂.
Speaks faster than farzad
And doesn’t take breaks
Nice summary article, heads up folks. I have wanted a robot since I was a kid (I am over 75). As a retired JPL Mission Controller, this is not surprising to me except it has taken so long. Actually, we have had pretty good hardware for 50 or more years. It is the software that has held things up. GPT will have a large part in making this happen and I can't wait. At 75+, quite literally :-)
We will see 1000 years of progress in the next 10 years, including in anti-aging and age reversal; you might just make it still.
I'm 58 and have been using chat GPT, CAD and 3D printing to do stuff that I had on the backburner for 30 years which was difficult to work on due to the cost of resources and fabrication processes. It has now become possible to do it due to this technological nexus which has put powerful tools in the hands of just about anyone. I think we will see an acceleration in technical advances because more people have become able to engage and pursue projects that don't require big money and institutional backing to produce a proof of concept.
I have zero doubt that in 20 years these will be everywhere.
Tesla bot is one good handjob away from a trillion dollars.
Seriously though, imagine highly adept gardening robots. Immensely beautiful manicured gardens everywhere as just one use-case. It'll be glorious.
We'll all be dead but the gardens will look amazing,
The Robots are Coming T shirt is looking prophetic at this point. Glad I've got mine! Thanks Farzad!
once these bots can vacuum, do laundry, cook dinner.... they'll be in every household.... they'll be like TVs
What is this ai voice lol
Monotone.
This is information.
Tesla bot speaking.
Over.
T9 back from the future 😮
Not ai, he is taking breaths in between sentences.
@@Mrgtaman533I can confirm that's AI, I also got my voice cloned on Elevenlabs profesionally, took 2 months of waiting and a few days once they started processing the fine-tuned voice model... It copies my breathsand pauses to sound more natural.
@@Mrgtaman533 if you check the pinned comment he even says this was an AI generated from a model of his voice.
A human will only work approx. 40 hours a week. The Robot can work perhaps 140 hours a week with four hours a day for charging, maintenance, software updates etc. So the robot doesn't replace one worker, it replaces 3.5. Do the maths again with that taken into account!
I’m waiting for the avatar to happen where the Apple glasses connect to the Tesla bot. For elderly folks, they could surely go to the store as an avatar, but
I’m fairly certain Apple will have its own bot and wouldn’t need Tesla. You know how much Apple enjoy its own ecosystem.
Fascinating… I really think we’re going about this the wrong way: Tesla will be renting these bots, not selling them
People will think that having these bots will mean none of if sill have to work again, but we aren't going to be left by our governments with nothing to do, so it just means we will be working some other way to pay for the bots in our home. It's going to be a very disappointing future for a lot of people.
You will own nothing and be happy.
@@nobbycheeseman2915 You underestimate the role of Twitter/X in putting pressure on the government to change the laws. Things will not continue as they have. The current election cycle should be quite disrupted and stand as proof of this.
Other Companies aren’t just going to sit there twiddling their thumbs as they watch Tesla brag about how promising their bots have become.
Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, even Intel might get in on the action…not to mention various other countries like China, India, Germany…ect who will gladly sell it to you directly and probably at a much cheaper price if they can dominate the space.
We already know Apple is not the first at innovation. What they do well is improve the already existing formula and market the hell out of it.
the other limitating factor, and the real important one is the amount of raw material available for the process
The bot is not going to cost over $8,000 to build/each. In fact, it will probably cost Tesla under $5,000/each to build at scale. This was a very professionally done video by you, Farzad. Excellent! I just think you are WAAYY OFF on the cost of the bot that is built by Tesla. If the bots cost Tesla $30,000 each to make, they would NOT even consider making them at this point in time. With this assumption that some people think a bot will cost over $25,000-$30,000/each to build at scale makes me happy as a stock owner. It also makes me think that EVERYONE will feel that Tesla has "pulled-off" a MAGIC TRICK, when they start a factory up that makes them for less than $5,000/each :) I say they can sell them for UNDER $10,000/each, easily when they start selling them to companies and the public. The MAGIC will ultimately happen when they announce the software packages! Just like APPLE did with the iPhone....The "APP Store" for the Tesla bot will be an amazing money maker! (NOT the bot). This is the reason Elon thinks there will be a billion bots by 2040. If it took $25k to $50k each to build each bot, it would take 100 years until there would be a billion bots, hehehe. Do the math! -Todd
Did Elon really say a billion by 2040?
Would you be able to share a link?
I like where Tesla is going with the robots. A robot at home offers a lot more than just doing chores, it is a member of the family. It can teach the kids its vast data bank of knowledge and aid the adults in business affairs. Mr. X
You’re assuming one-for-one - that one bot will replace one worker when in fact, a single robot will be somewhere on the order of 3.5 workers, considering a bot can work three shifts plus weekends, with only a few hours of downtime per week. Thus, it would replace not one but three security guards for a labor cost savings of nearly a half million, and that’s merely the salary savings. There are also the overhead (no Human Resources department), benefits (such as health, paid vacations), no sick days, et cetera.
I'd correct the assumption on the security guard because you haven't considered that the human security guard would need to sleep. So you need 2 to 3 human guards if you want 24 hr surveillance. The return on investment could be one year or less.
Not to mention the fact that the robot is far superior in vision, hearing, and the ability to react and process nearly every task.
We may need some form of UBI soon.
Imagine the days of not having to do interviews and constantly scrambling around to try to build your resume, oh what a dream
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) they will put universal basic income!? there will be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!?
Missing your nufty laughter 😃. It would be interesting to see how good it would get with a larger training sample.
Because humanoid robots will be able to make humanoid robots, these factories can be located where there is plenty of cheap vacant land in unpopulated areas lacking a sufficient human labor pool or where the labor resources is very expensive because of the remoteness of the factory.
6:46 I'm not sure if you're talking retail price, or manufacturing cost. In terms of manufacturing costs, bot should be MUCH cheaper to produce than a car. Not only does bot use about a 10th of the raw materials, it's assembly is far closer to being akin to something like a computer, than a car. You don't have really complex wire routing to deal with, internal panels that have to be fitted, etc. Vehicles, by their nature, of having internal and external volumes that have to be dealt with, greatly increase their assembly complexity. Bot on the other hand will be far closer to a consumer appliance. So I expect the assembly complexity of bot to be extremely low. If raw materials are one tenth that of a vehicle, and assembly complexity is one tenth of a vehicle, you expect the cost to be one tenth of a vehicle. So if Tesla is targeting producing cars at a cost of about $20k, I'd expect bot's cost to be around $2k.
I've spent a lot of time in high volume manufacturing, I agree with you 2k is much more reasonabe
I mostly agree except for the wiring being cheaper and easier. That is debatable as the DOF and sensors might need considerable wiring unless they use fiber networking.
@@garylcamp I don't think the DOF matters, as we have already solved this class of problem a million times over. You can engineer around that. When I say the wiring is easier, I mean you don't have to climb around inside a confined space, routing wires through tight crevasses. Once you design the proper wire interfaces, it should be a snap to fit sort of situation, and not threading wires in a confined spaces you have to climb around in.
Ai took your job!!! The voice got better as the video went on, but prefer the real deal. We like Farzad the human!!!
With starlink, this can work everywhere as long as it has power.
You wouldn’t need a robot per average household if you were leasing it. One could be shared with 3-4 neighbours in reality. As the robot can work say 20 hours a day with a 4 hour recharge.
You also forgot shifts. Although a robot has to charge, it can still probably pull 12-15 hours shifts daily, effectively adding 50% efficiency in many job areas. Bots in warehouses or factories can be charged even faster in the future, giving them something like an 18-20 hour uptime or more per day.
It can hot swap battery. So 23.5/24 hour
@@vanhsati - Couldn't it charge and work at the same time? So 24 hour! 🙂
@@vanhsati Good point. Although as a mechanic and electrician I can tell you that breaks for maintenance and cooldown periods to alleviate mechanical stress and heat issues will be adviced for longevity. But I'm sure even such problems will be optimized or removed in the future tech.
they can produce less expensive robots with wheels instead of legs, that will also be able to move faster than a humanoid
If the buyer can program the bot and if that programming isn’t overly complex, then it becomes accessible to the masses. But if a bot can be trained by anyone, how do you know that only honest tasks are being taught?
I want a Tesla bot so it can be a portable gaming setup. Think about it, it’s a pc that can walk, build, learn, and drive.
Excellent video Mr. Mesbahi. Thank you.
I hope I live long enough to see Tesla Bots walking and working on Mars. That will be so cool.
Next level video production
I was a minute and 10 seconds into the video when I realized this was an AI voice. One year from now I bet I won't be able to tell at all.
Cool video. I enjoyed it. It’s a fun topic to speculate on. I think it will be fun to watch as they update year after year. Like we saw with the iPhone.
One of the big advantages of robots is they can be designed to be better than us humans, so simply copying us seems a bit short sighted. I think, as time passes, it will be decided that we don't need all bots to be a copy of us and that billion bots many are projecting will actually be a mix of form factors, taking full advantage of what robots can actually do...bots with wrists that rotate 360 degrees, bots with 3 or 4 arms, bots with arms longer than humans to give them better reach, interchangeable "hands" each designed for different use cases, robots on wheels, bots with 4 legs, bots designed to lift and carry weights humans cannot.
They'll learn from us, but then they'll be able to improve beyond our abilities. You just don't get it.
@@Alarix246 Can't tell if you are being serious or satirical, but I'm going to assume the later.
Would it be possible to build the equivalent of a faraday cage inside the cyber truck?
If we want the stock to move, Optimus has to be seen doing something in the factory, even if it’s just bringing totes to a workstation. This should have happened already.
Tesla fanboys care more about stock price than products
Could this the next iPhone like innovation? Where everyone wants one.
Nice work! Exciting and also scary as heck.
Watching this morning while wearing my The Robots Are Coming tee! 🥰 Listening to your AI voice is wild. Can hear that it's you and yet not you...mind blown 🤯
Great content on the Tesla Robot bro! Very informative. A happy subscriber 🤙
I guess when robots make each other, bots will cost just the materials and energy, so we get closer to $10.000.
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) they will put universal basic income!? there will be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!?
Most of us missed it completely. ELON already said at a WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM (a few years back) that automation will put the majority of people out of work and people will need a UBI (Universal Basic Income). Robots are a part of that automation.
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) they will put universal basic income!? there will be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!?
I am curious to see in 5 years how they can/will be used in natural disasters, dangerous locations/situations that people don't want to be in....excellent video, I think it will age well. One BIG reason I have much confidence like you is the Tesla team coming up with upgraded iterations SO QUICKLY, and MUCH improved. !!!!! Many use cases it is crazy !!!!!!
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) they will put universal basic income!? there will be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!?
That was superb! Thank you
Optimus Gen 2 was a real eye-opener as to how close we are to a functional humanoid robot. Not only will a robot do the cooking and gardening, with A.I., it'll be a companion/teacher/mentor/guru...interesting times ahead.
*PS The voice is quite good although he sounds a little young to me, but I'm older so maybe that's why.
The voiceover feels unnaturally stiff. The AI needs to have more natural pauses and fluxation in tone.
Its almost like someone reading a paragraph outloud just to get it done
you can replace a person with a robot, but you cant give them a personality...
Digit costs 250,000 and Unitree’s humanoid robot cost 150,000. As of now. There is no factory that can produce human robots at scale. There is also no supply chain for such a factory. Tesla also has not solved FSD yet. I think they have been working on it for 6 years?
Right now, haha you have a present bias. Most people are thinking about today and right now. 10 years ago these bots were not possible at all.
@@A_D624 what about ASIMO ? How soon do they forget! The project started in 2000.
@@MichaelOverstreet asimo costs millions of dollars and now we have unitree at 150k. Soon it will be 50k and then many jobs will be affected
@@A_D624 Optimus version two cost millions of dollars to create. What is your timeline for a 50,000 dollar humanoid robot?
@@MichaelOverstreet I'm going to have to assume 2025 with the way things are going. 150K bots were unheard of years ago
Space is no issue, especially if they do vertical manufacturing.
For this to work you’d need another electrical grid of the same size and capacity of the one that exists and add another because EVs. It’s just not possible to triple the grid and production in that amount of time.
Explain?
@@MehulPatelLXC
What don’t you get?
The grid gets into trouble with a little bad weather. You want to add another grids worth of electricity with EVs, and then you want X number of robots that will require the same levels of electricity as the EVs. What’s not to get here? Never mind moving that much energy, CREATION!!! How?
Damn Bro! You leveled up big time!
Congrats . Loving it.
I love the rapid speed!
Miss the face cam and hearing your voice with tone and inflections.
I could immediately tell the voice was AI. I watch your channel because I like the fact you are real and cover relevant topics. I am beginning to hold a great deal of contempt for AI and AI generated content. Stay real man!!!
It will be nice if the front panel can display (by connection to sattalites) the line of traffic in front of the tesla ! thank you and please don't get bothered by my comments..
🤔?
I will be most comfortable with the Tesla robot model seen as commonplace in future society,doing mundane or special jobs like assistant policing,crowd control,etc.
What about simply building a fence, house cleaners, painting your wall, small house repair, pressure washing your house, cleaning windows etc bye bye side jobs
I don’t believe that Optimus will be bought. It makes more sense to lease robots. Also, Lease rates can vary given the end tasks and control of the robot and components would remain with the manufacturer
Is it possible to make these robots EMP proof as well as the cyber truck?
Been waiting for this tech all my life. Let's GO Tesla...let's GO!!
The price point for these is under $25k, 15 optimal
Excellent high and low bounds for Total Addressable Market (TAM) for humanoid robots, the AI model of your voice is a bonus!
Imagine if A.I decided to build these things x5 the size!!
Farzad, I love your videos! Not sure how I feel about this new speech tone and cadence. It feels less personal.
In theory you are 100% correct. However, if you think the good ole boy that just lost his job to this thing isn’t going to retaliate with a bullet through the main CPU you’re crazy. It’s gonna be open season on bots. Just saying.. Better add insurance premiums to the cost of the bot for short life expectancy. Love your work Farzad. Keep them coming.
I cannot wait to see the US Marine combat BOT.. It had better be awesome.
Why do you compare it with the landmass?
Your own voice is better, it's more interesting because of the personal inflections and emphases.
GREAT JOB ALL...THANX 4 MAKING Tee with LIONS NAMED LEO the music worldwide.
LOVE YOU ALL...!!!....MUCH LOVE.!!
Another limiting factor is the energy consumption.
There is an energy shortage in the end. So the price of energy will rise I assume.
Maybe but remember the Humans need energy too. More thought needed. The replaced humans may still exist and need energy. They may make (or the robots may make) more renewable energy, as needed.
@@garylcamp More thought needed indeed. People can live from the land they are living on. There are still people who don't need energie. Tribes in Africa and South America are examples. We are so much dependent on energy, it is a bit silly if you think about it.
Good point to think about bots creating the solar power plants. Bots need electricity. They don't run on a salad.:-)
A robot will take every job before we know it. Just study history of man and how fast we have progressed. Especially in the last 50 years. Wait waits in 5? 10?
It seems Financial Products - not even new concepts - would enable enable a lot of value for this challenge/opportunity. As a Corporate Financial Professional, the economics appear to work out by 1.) 24 hour work 2.) You can lease one out to cover costs of Robot. 3.) Lease your robot to Corporations and Manufacturers, …. When its coming to Market, it may have these reasonable prices, or even “negative” prices (revenue)
We live in interesting transitionary times when human labor still have its value 😁
I disagree with your statement about form factor. Walking is not efficient at all, and humanoid robots should have wheels or at least wheels at the bottom of their legs. Moving on wheels is a lot more efficient, faster and requires a lot less energy than walking. Feet an legs only make sense to push pedals (eg a press in a manufacturing environment or driving) or stairs which could also be tackled by wheels. So I do think arms and fingers are super useful but not legs and I’m surprised Tesla has not thought about that yet.
“ people still don’t know what a Tesla is”?” on what planet is that Does anybody else know anybody that doesn’t know what a Tesla is?
To add if it learns like they are doing with V12 fsd then then need scale and will learn really fast
I think 2040 too far out. I thinking more like 2025 rollout and 2030 500 million units on the planet.
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) they will put universal basic income!? there will be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!?
You really think the parts aren’t going to evolve over time?
In terms of company and company projects yes, I 100% agree with your estimations. But if I’m not mistaken, I believe the ultimate goal for these robots were to be household items and if I’m true in that no one is going to buy this for 30k It’ll have to be cheaper than that. For example, I wouldn’t buy this until it got within maybe 10 to maybe 15 grand and the robot has to be it will have to be cheaper than that to get to the regular person but in terms of company and company products and replacing those jobs. Yes I fully agree.
I probably would. $30k is cheap a good investment for a full time maid and cook. (If it can achieve that). Plus, Tesla would just offer financing initially. As more people adopt them, people will be sharing what their robot can do online, and more will people will want them. Slowly, but surely. Costs would go down over time.
This will suck when everyone’s out of a job
My daughter, after seeing the robot, had a meltdown. She is robophobic for sure. But honestly it seems like a premonition. Interesting, because I’m an engineer and love this stuff. The humanoid robot, she can’t stand. It’s as if she knows this isn’t good for the future. A natural intuition.
How will wars be fought. There is no going back from this. I can’t even say we need to slow down, as china, and Russia, and others are actively working to perfect the humanoid robot. Then what.
Sounds like you reading too fast
Why 2 arms?
Can I get one with 4 arms?
Sounds like the guy that narrates Goggins latest book.
No question this is AI talking in this video.
1 billion by 2040 is way too conservative. It's going to happen much sooner, probably by 2030.
- Cost is not an issue, Scott Walter and others estimated it to be less than $10K.
- The brain is not an issue. With the speed AI is advancing, robots should be able to do any work in just a few years, and definitely by 2030.
- Production volume is not an issue. With Tesla's expertise, speed of factory construction, and Optimus already have been designed for mass production, it should be easy. Building bots is so much easier than cars.
- Demand is not an issue either. All human labor is going to be replaced, that's a done deal. That's already in the billions. But that's just the starting point. Most people would want at least on at home for housekeeping and running errands. And that's still small thinking.
Once robots are building robots, robots are mining raw materials, and robots are building factories, the cost of production will drop to essentially zero. And as cost goes down, new opportunities open, just like with any other product. We are putting computers into everything, because it's so cheap that even a marginal usefulness justifies it. There are lightbulbs with more computing power than the entire Apollo Program. Similarly robots will do things that would be outrageously expensive today. Jobs that aren't hard, just require a huge number of workers. For example clearing landmines in former war zones. Or picking up all of the garbage on the entire surface of the planet.
And who said we have to stay on this planet? With SpaceX colonizing the Solar System, the scale of labor demand grows several orders of magnitude. We could build a Dyson Sphere. It's a low-tech structure, just obscenely big. That requires roughly octillion robots.
delusion
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) they will put universal basic income!? there will be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!?
@@JC-nl3nh
Are you describing your own state of mind?
When I saw this I was like "wtf is wrong with the way he's talking this isn't how he talks". Eventually it won't be distinguishable.
For anyone who has even followed Musk and the Teslabot, you already know that Musk says he will get the price of the robot down to $20k or below, for the average consumer. Most of the components that make up the Teslabot are done in-house,cutting costs, so the price you set at $20-$50k for materials cost seems a bit much.
Also, as with everything in the digital technology world, everyone wants one. So if Elon Musk gets his Teslabot to a decent price point, people will buy. And just like cars, or cell phones, we all want the biggest and best.
So I think it will be very feasible that Elon Musk will achieve his goal of how many Teslabots he will manufacture. This guy is a genius. He may be slow on deadlines, but he does get results.
Wow that is a very nice video, informative , nice narration… I LIKE!!!i
Did A.I. put this together? How is this done?
Do you know anything about IM3NY battery plant?
It’s a little too uncanny valley for me.
a robot replaces more then 1 human! at least 2! he can work 16h easy and u have 8 left vor maintanance......
Everybody needs to go out and buy land and learn how to grow their own food cuz you ain't going to rely on the crazy world coming
I know these Robots will be amazing and will be able to do a lot but Please just remind them that they were created by HUMANS 👊🏻
I popped out of fullscreen to look at the description/comments when I was like "wtf is up with this voice?!" Sure enough...😂
Farzi GPT. Not a fan of it. Human made will be artisanal in the future and this is the example of why. Content is the same but feels less authentic. Keep up the good work Farzi, but we want the real one!
I call it AI freedom. Robots works we enjoy life and freedom as it was made to be.
What would this do to the value of the dollar?
Elon has said in interviews that it could lead to an infinite economy. Labor and the ability to do things is what holds us back.
Dude is literally reading Wikipedia 👀
his lyrebirdai is 😅
Sounds like a good job for an on-call service for troubleshooting and repair. (Or calibration)
I think there may be a good possibility that Optimus will become the assembler on the Model 2 assembly line. Optimus surely can install a bumper, wheels, instrument panel into a vehicle. Once one Optimus robot knows how to install a bumper - all the Optimus know how to install a bumper. Optimus needs no breaks, no repetitive motion injuries ( replace whatever part wears out ), and doesn't have the desire to unionize ( well ... yet! )
Why do I feel someone is shorting the stock, keeps going down despite actual innovation in manufacturing, holistically they are changing factories, screw the car itself . (Disclaimer not a stock market guy)
and how are we going to get the money to buy the things that the Robots produce, between Ai and Optimus, no one will have a Job.:(