The Series: Extreme Spread And Standard Deviation - Which is better?
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- Опубліковано 18 сер 2024
- This video is a discussion of Extreme Spread (ES) and Standard Deviation (SD) and how those two statistical measurements apply to making predictions about the long range, on target, performance in long range shooting.
Whether you shoot F-class, PRS, Long-range Benchrest, or engage in long-range hunting, controlling your ES and SD can be beneficial to getting the bullets where you want them. - Спорт
I learned...that this is the only youtube channel which requires me to have a 0.00% BAC level to pick up what is being put down. Cheers.🍻
I love your style and I mean that I. A manly way. Calm, well informed, totally useful. Thank you for all your contributions.
Great perspective.
Standby. I’m watching for the 25th time. Starting to sink in. I’ll get back to you with comments in 25 more.
Thanks for trying to simplify a difficult subject. As you said it’s all important and mean different things. Another good measure is the mean radius or the distance from the center of the group expressed in inches or MOA. This can tell you how well you are grouping with most of your shots since it’s an average. ES might move you away from a load due to one flier. Keep the videos coming.
Excellent explanation.
I've done many 25 shot groups &, although they give you a more accurate picture of what to expect, I now find that 1 x 10 shot group seems with a slightly larger margin of expected change is just as telling & way less expensive & time consuming. Truth be told, the larger margin of change has been more correct in my experience because it tends to allow for shooter error more faithfully &, this allows me to better determine a more realistic expectation at long range.
I'm going to have a good think about your views on using SD instead of ES. At the moment, I see ES as a more realistic data point application because, although ES can be the extreme ranges of velocity, it does allow us to interpret a worst case scenario & adjust accordingly. I've always seen SD as interesting but, it appears to lack the polarising figures which ES gives us.
The reason I decided to use ES over SD was when considering a good deal of previous data. When I looked at SD's, I saw very little difference &, this becomes worse the more data you have. ES also accounts for cold/clean barrel & significant temp difference whereas SD can tend to deceive in those areas.
Anyhow, great vid, I'll give the SD idea another think over.
Regards...............Rotas.
Your audio Is great. Very even and clear
You went the long way around the barn to say statistics are very helpful but always believe the target. 😉 Subbed
When in doubt, paper never lies.... Never.
@@emmettdibble8404 Yep.
I have tried several times to get this type of information into a friend's head to no avail. All he does is shoot 5 shot strings across a mag neto speed. And talks about ES and SD. And never puts any of to use. He doesn't pay any attention to neck tension or seating depth. Or anything that would affect ES or SD. He has a head of stone. I always ask him what is he trying to accomplish. I never get a meaningful response. So now I avoid him completely.
As a professional statistician and shooter I agree with what you are saying. For those interested look up the Central Limit Theorem and the concept of a Confidence interval based on 95% and 99%
Very well done on a hard topic, I agree with you 100% and I don't shoot competitive anymore but I'm extremely particular about load development and accuracy for hunting, thanks and God bless
Audio is great. Good info.
The ES has been my base line for years. Low ES, smaller groups. Velocity has all the variables built in, air pressure, elevation, temperature, powder differentials, pressures, barrel wear. I enjoyed the comparison but find Extreme Spread to be the determining factor.
Great video. Looking forward to the next.
Great intel - Thanks for sharing!
I keep my process way simple. I draw a water line through my one inch shoot-n-see pasties, across my load development target(s). I shoot my test charges. When I find three consecutive charges that are the same distance from the water line, THE CHARGE IN THE MIDDLE is my goto charge weight. If that charge groups well enough for its purpose I'm done. If not, I alter the seating depth to tune the load. I verify at the required distance, and put the relevant information in my data book.
If I get any deeper in the weeds I'll get lost.
Wow that seems simple enough.How many shots do you fire per charge weight? Or just one shot per weight?
Sounds good
Love your channel! This is a general comment but on an element of shooting which is driving me crazy. Internet discussions, which treat standard deviations and extreme spread as independent variables, are misleading and incorrect. It’s pretty basic statistics. The two muzzle velocities used to calculate sample ES are included in the calculation of the SD. Therefore, the SD and ES are functionally related. Across samples, the ES and SD are correlated. You cannot change one without changing the other. For small samples, the SD and ES are very highly correlated. As the sample size increase, the correlation will decrease. This is obvious when you consider that the two ES velocities contribute less and less to the sample variance as N increases. The problem with ES used alone is that ES is not robust. Neglecting barrel wear and the like, the more you shoot, the larger you’re observed ES will be. The more you shoot, the more your SD will stabilize and approach its true value.
I agree whole-heartedly.
Great info 👍
I know this is a late comment but would it be fair to say that SD is the equivalent to mean radius and ES would be equivalent to the "norm" for measuring group size by using the two furtherest impacts ? This would mean I would be able to use the SD/ average miss distance to create a more accurate range card for a given load ?
Cheers,
Josh
Good audio👍
If MV drifts up or down during a string, could that be because of copper melting and depositing along the barrel? On a hot day, more might melt than on a cold day. Either way, a cold day (or more time spent shooting the string) might cool the copper in the barrel a little bit more. That would mean there is a change in metals that are in contact down the barrel. If more copper is solidifying, that means friction is between copper and copper, and less between copper and polished steel. And if copper is smoother than lapped steel, than MV should creep up with more copper deposited. More friction would slow it down. So, a cool day (or a more easily melted jacket) would mean more cooled copper in the barrel as a string progresses. That copper isn't polished, but the steel is. I don't know which is smoother...I wonder if this is what happens. Just a question. I'm still new to shooting, but I've been improving my ammo with fewer trips to the range, and I'm getting much more consistent SD and ES. More than half of my charge weights for a new 7 SAUM barrel had single digit ES and SD, and 3 out of 4 in a row (.3 gn increments) were 3.7 SD or better! 2 adjacents were 2.4 and 2.8 SD and 5 ES for both, for 3 shot groups. I still measure every single thing--I'm one of those serial measurers you mentioned in your 'stop measuring everything' video! That's because I want to see every little thing still, and why it happens, because all variables are still mostly a mystery at the same time for me. I need more experience to eliminate some of them, and I'm getting it as I go. Great videos and info. Finally, somebody is taking a thorough, informed approach, like Erik Cortina, and with graphics.
I have no way of knowing on the copper question. I just know what my barrels do, and being able to predict it is half the battle. Remembering when things are going to happen in the heat of battle, so you can "lead the dance" is the other half.
Audio is great
I’ve been working up a load for my .338 Remington ultra mag pushing a 300gr Nosler ABLR, this is a painful process but necessary, test 9 rounds and recover for two weeks, in finding the sweet spot I’m finding that I’m the one deviating the most.
What trigger source are you using with you labradar? I'm have trouble getting it to pick up every shot. Thanks
I just ordered a JKL Precision based on Keith recommendation.
Please help, why is it my lowest
sd/es's have poor groups??
sd of 4,5,6's, @100yds look like an amateur,lots of vert and horazont spread over 1 inch,But my sd of 10-12 make 1/4-1/2 hole on paper?? String of 4 to 8,10 rounds..
Whats goin on?? Thank you for your time.
So comment if we think you’re wrong or like, if you learned something.. well what do we do if we’re left confused? Comment and like! 😂
I think I need to go cut the grass... :)
My head hurts now.