How Science is Taking the Luck out of Gambling - with Adam Kucharski
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- Опубліковано 2 сер 2016
- From the statisticians forecasting sports scores to the intelligent bots beating human poker players, Adam Kucharski traces the scientific origins of the world's best gambling strategies.
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Spanning mathematics, psychology, economics and physics, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science, and explains how gambling shaped everything from probability to game theory, and chaos theory to artificial intelligence.
Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections. Prior to this, he got a degree in mathematics from the University of Warwick, received a PhD in applied mathematics from the University of Cambridge and had a post-doc position at Imperial College London.
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I feel so lucky to be born in a time when anybody at all can just press a few buttons and find themselves being mentally enriched by an expert lecturing in any field of theory or knowledge. Quantum physics or gaming theory. Become as knowledgeable as you care to be on any subject at all. Truly remarkable.
Exceedingly remarkable indeed
But on the BAD side, there are alot of people and governments that are hell bent to distort knowledge , to distort information , to gain & stay on power
I swear these days we can't go 5 replies to a comment on UA-cam without somebody finding something negative to say about something positive.
Oh really? Care to answer some simple
questions on quantum mechanics or game theory? Just because you watch UA-cam videos does not make you an expert, or even particularly knowledgeable.
This comment and all the replies to it, are Dunning Kruger at its finest.
@@markchoi5777 the key words are "mentally enriched" and "care to be". If you want to be expert, in theory, you can be one by watching a lot of videos and read a tons of books. Most experts do the same thing but they either have an accredition or job in the field. Or you can just a little more knowledgable of a topic you previously know or care about with the wonder of the present.
I remember as a kid, RC Cola had some promotion where the liner inside the cap had the chance to win from a 1 free bottle up to a case of cola. One of my friends figured out that the steel caps of winning bottles were printed in slightly lighter colours than the rest. We had so much RC cola during that promotion! The best part was when we went to collect the free cola we would always choose another winner so never had to buy another bottle, lol. Happy memories as a kid.
Sounds like something I did. I was playing a tennis game on Xbox 360 with a friend, and figured out how to tell if my friend was going left or right, or aiming left or right, before the shot had fired. A huge advantage. It was from the sound of the thumb stick hitting the left or right side of the plastic. It was just sliiiiiiightly different.
MountainProspector, did you grow up in Texas? My brother dated one of the daughters to the RC Cola family, Ann Comegys. Back in the early 80s which is the timeframe I’m referring to I recall their family owning huge amounts of land north of Dallas. Nowadays, I live north of Dallas in McKinney and there is a Comegys creek and a few roads or streets named in reference to that family. Like you, I used to drink a lotta RC Cola for free. We just got it free for different reasons. 😉
we did something similar when i was young ... the shop owner kicked us out because he thought we were scamming/stealing him ...
Hated RC cola, just had a weird taste. Growing up, My best friends mother bought it by the pallet, literally. I'd rather drink water.
My dad used a flashlight on a scratch off baseball card game to know how to make matches
I learned a lot of Excel by doing gambling calculations. I never won a dime, but my ample spreadsheet skills got me a very good job.
@Munrais That is impressive. I wonder if you wouldn't mind elaborating on your job, and on one or two specific skills in Excel that have proven valuable to your employer, in case there is someone out there looking to emulate your approach.
me too
@@GeldorfMcleod Hence you should try it out in a brick casino.
And get banned there.
@@NewPhone-vj4sc If you're good at something, never do it for free.
@@GeldorfMcleod Log the numbers from one account and play on a different account. Use pythons image recognition libraries (Open CV) to automate the logging process. And the library (numpy) to make statistical calculations. If you can log the numbers for a long period of time, then you will be able to see patterns if there is any . Good luck
Excellent talk! An example of someone who knows a topic so well his explanation is incredibly easy to understand. A rare talent!
okay been given out this formula to low-income people unfortunately higher income people gotten it because Kevin in nc "states North Carolina comp office" was given this information ( just how to win ) to give it to the lottery ..been told by an insider he never provided the info to lottery officials he uses it for himself ( he may have quit because he has the formula) .. today the pic 4 front end should be 88 or 84...when I went to play today it say "play out exceeds payout!!!!! that how many people are playing the formula and know it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! so yeah I hope low-income people are winning, that was my objective no matter what color...just be low income. The only way this number will not play is if the lottery people have gotten smart, to date so far they have no, so it should play today..
True!
"
Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections."
An incredibly relevant focus to have this year.
I'm guessing like me you would welcome a similar talk on his main area of expertise. Especially now that we are over a year into the pandemic and have a lot of data to examine.
A lecture on the Covid pandemic would be great (albeit quickly out of date if he focused on the "latest news"), but in case you're unaware, Adam has an excellent twitter account full of explanations about Covid data.
Omg what are you his PR manager ?
And it's not very relevant at all tbh.. This is why he is talking about gambling not infectious disease.
This was a delight. He trips from math to history, to physics like a Mozart sonata.
Great vid. Nice to see a lecturer who knows his subject and rarely if ever has to look at his notes.
I have an uncle who is/was a science prodigy. His intellect was off the scale. He has a PhD in Physics and a masters in mathematics. He developed a software which grocery stores scanned all their shelves with it and it revealed that which position on the shelf a product sold more from. Brand didn't matter - where the product was placed on display determined the sales. Product producers were lining up with offers of more and more money to buy their product's position on display. His company was eventually purchased by a company who then owned the product.
He used his brainpower to beat the roulette tables in Atlantic City. He watched the spinners. Based on height, weight,handedness, etc he worked out a winning position where he knew within 95% certainty which 4-5 numbers would be the winning numbers. When new spinners were brought in, he would step back and study their spins until he figured out the new patterns. He won $60K with this before he was asked to leave. They never figured out how he had done it but I suspect the practice continues today.
Good story.
netflix worth film
One of the best videos I’ve watched in a long time- brilliantly presented!
22:15 Kelly formula
40:02 Build the childs' mind and regret's minimization of vs expectation maximization
Tnx
Can u elaborate please I don’t understand
absolutely incredible talk, so fluid and so many great examples...makes me wanna go and research them all! ty
Not fluid at all, give this man some water. His mouth and tongue sounded so dry and it bothered me the whole time.
Great talk, makes me pleased to support the RI.
Great talk! A good balance of simplicity and mathematics with some great examples; Presented brilliantly!
@Garbaz it's Happy! ;) I agree, I'm glad to see this bloke talking about all kinds of stuff I've been spouting for decades. I'm trying to do some computer analysis of blackjack in C++ but I'm a very amateur programmer... having difficulties.
@bcmasur do you watch fairytail too?
Loser
Garbaz I
Presently brillianted!
Saw this randomly in my feed (chuckle) and thought it looked interesting but had no intention of sitting here for an hour. I ended up being pasted to my screen for the entire thing completely entertained and happy for the education.
me too.... plus.... repeat, repeat......
wait this took an hour ???
Excellent video! You should do a video on Arbitrages, since they are basically only winning strategy, like those Betnetto surebets.
Theres plenty more ways of guaranteing wins
@@aaronwolstenholme8640 yep. one way that can work 87% is a rabbit foot. Be sure it's the front right foot which is the real lucky foot.
JUST KIDDING forgot to type LOL, sorry.
@@christopherdesimone206 so your saying 100% percent that this is the only way?
I played 50cent on 4 numbers on the Irish Lottery, in the bookies a couple of weeks ago. It was my first time ever to do so, and i watched the draw live on tv that night and all 4 of my numbers came out, i won €1900.50. I couldn't actually believe it, i went back down the very next day and collected it, & i walked straight out of the shop clearly extremely happy.
I know of plenty of people who would have collected that money & stayed in the shop and blew the lot.
That to me is madness.
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Cool story, bro. lol
that person to waste it all is me won 1800 usd the other day lost it all 😎
Such a brilliant talk, covered so many topics in a simple way.
I don't know why this was recommended to me but I watched it all. Thanks youtube.
This is one of the better presentations of this subject in relation to the events of chance/randomization and our ability to predict the preferred outcome. Well done sir.
Wonderful talk.Thank you for giving it, and for posting the video.
Excellent, well presented and entertainingly informative
An excellent talk on this subject. Very clear and entertaining, and expertly presented.
A most thought-provoking talk! Regarding the situation in which Deep Blue foxed Kasparov with a seemingly brilliant, but in reality completely random, move, it struck me that the same strategy probably wouldn't work the other way around. Had Kasparov done the same thing, Deep Blue would simply have calmly and unemotially taken the best possible advantage of it, as it would of any other move. Our inability to use bluff/gamesmanship against machines therefore surely means that chess, poker, or almost any game played against a computer is forever going to be missing a major dimension of enjoyment. This might almost amount to an argument for turning our attention, to some extent, away from the further development of AI to that of AS (articificial stupidity)! :-)
There was a lot more schenanigans going on than just a single weird move. I think in reality the match was really just a PR exercise for IBM, they organised it, they promoted it, they agreed a format, they broke all the rules, then they declared themsleves the winner and their PR team let the world know. If this had in any way been a sanctioned formal match I think the deep blue team would have been disqualified for failing to meet many agreed upon anti-cheating safeguards, but it wasn't any they probably paid Kasparov extra to not make a fuss. He seemed pretty unhappy about it, but likely earned enough to live with the humiliation of being labelled the first world champion to lose to a computer.
One of the most engaging videos I have watched for quite some time. It is still amazing to me to have the knowledge of the world available at your fingertips. Although the subject matter has little to do with my particular area of expertise , I absorbed as much as my brain could handle . Excellent talk Mr. Kucharski !
Its said that literally every topic on earth is now covered in a (or more) youtube video's. Find the right ones and one can skip university :)
Can your knowledge work on covid-19 treatmwnts and predictions of cases, "red areas", etc...
An excellent lecture and the fact that it is freely available is a reminder that we all have the opportunity to improve ourselves and learn something new and it doesn't have to cost a thing (internet access permitting of course).
What an outstanding presentation!
What a wonderful, enlightening lecture! Dwelling on the content, I believe it helped me understand many facets concerning life! Thanks.
Hlo i don't know English please tell me shortly what s mean this lacture it's talk about law of attraction 🙏🙏🙏🙏
Thankyou for posting this fascinating subject matter, very well told and illustrated by statistician Adam Kucharski. Hilarious watching the audience do Rock, Paper, scissors.
What a remarkable presentation by an amazing presenter. Adam is suited to explaining and giving great analogies for complex topics such as these. I enjoyed it thoroughly.
I watched it 10x already, and every single time I focus on something else …great seminar .. Thank You :)
Brilliant talk and very interesting points. Thank you
Great presentation ... presenter .. good stuff!
I instantly started my poker software and started to bluff bad hands, no matter what.
Worked WAY better than I expected xD
So I did NOT play lose or tight. I ignored the middle cards and just played good or bad cards.
Of course with some adjustments... (so I just raised preflop with bad cards, when noone did before, for example)
Doubled my buy in in just 10 minutes. When I regognized, people saw what I was doing, I left. Made some money. Going to try to replecate that tomorrow
he won with some bullshit system which is basically bluffing, said he would try it again tomorrow. now it's a month further.......
I know. It's surprising how people always think they've found some secret method to success. As far as poker goes, we've known how to play optimally for years with range building. You calculate your own odds based on the possible cards you think your opponent could have based on how they play. Tight players will bluff less and usually have better cards when they bet, loose players will bluff more and bet with weaker hands, if you have KhAh they are less likely to have hearts and broadway combos, etc. There is some basic strategy for playing the early rounds of a large tournament but beyond that...
I will say that bluffing a lot is going to be good against weaker and tight players, and since the op was playing online he likely just ran into a table with a bunch of noobs/weak players.
@@yawgmoth5662 it was meant like a joke...^^ of course it just works sometimes
Just because it worked once. Doesn't mean it will work longterm
Good point. Play a certain way that throws everyone off until they catch on then leave
I enjoyed that. Keep it random man!
I ..i heard a couple of lines ..and got hooked by this guy quickly ..i had to watch it all ...thanks
A brilliant lecture Adam , well done !
Great point in gambling where your betting amount in proportion to your bank is extremely important and determines if you win or lose long term. You can have the perfect betting system but if your betting amount if over the optimum limit then you will lose not only the bets but all your bank eventually which is why the casinos always want you to bet beyond what is reasonable all the time.
Wrong.
Simply a fascinating video; thank you
Thank you for a eloquent talk and introducing me to new concepts, subscribed :)
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This might be the best lecture I've ever seen in my life. And trust me, my sample size is pretty large!
This video was better than I expected.
How good did you expect it to be?
@@jayaybe1 Less so than it was.
Your expectations are my priority
Yeah , if you ignore that thick accent.
"Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections."
An incredibly relevant focus to have this year.
4:04 yes but you'd also win all the other tickets such as 5+bonus, 5, 4 and 3 ball combinations so it's not just about winning the top prize but winning ALL the prizes.
Thx 4 upload
Excellent presentation thank you.
When he said his jobs description, he had my full attention.
You can also compare the potential benefit of science to society and the potential benefit of gambling to society.
Gambling works when people want to share, at best, and decide to do so according to some rules, not unlike how law is designed and enforced, including indictments or war, such as in, wage war, at best.
Science can solve gambling problem as a potential benefit to society, as well as any other problems, and does not require sharing., even though it can involve sharing.
Excellent lecture. Would love to hear more from this speaker!
Thank you, this helped me with my work.
Just found this but what a great lecture from a professional. Breaks down gambling in a great way making it easy to understand and digest. Thoroughly enjoy the depth and thinking in the lecture.
There are definitely sports gambling hacks one can do, but most require a fair amount of money, such as playing on the side of the house against emotional tendencies of casual bettors. Also taking advantage of late news that can affect an outcome.
Didnt notice how long it was, (expecting maybe 25mins) checked time after 40 mins. Very well presented and engaging. Time flew by.
YNWA
This human explains the mathematics very clearly. I have been using these methods for years.
I've seen a lot of Ri lectures and boy was this speaker 🔥
This was brilliant. A special mentioned to the speaker for the way is was delivered
If you enjoyed this talk, you should try the book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions (by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths).
Just bought this book on Audible on your recommendation 😊
@@JamesBermingham Audio book was my choice, too! Hope you enjoy it, man
@@DannyPhantumm cheers Droh 👍
Professional gamblers don't think along the lines of 'which horse is going to win' - they think in terms of probabilities and chance. You cannot know what is going to happen, only relative probabilities.
An hour spent spellbound to my seat. Thank you Mr Kucharski!
Brilliant presentation.
I figured this out about the Lottto back in the 1980's but couldn't profit on it.
So...you're telling me there's a chance...YEAH!
Educational and entertaining. A great watch:)
I like the concept of regret minimization for investing, also looking backward to improve trading or investing skills.
Speaking of the luck and skill boxes, we teach young aviators that they begin with a full bag of luck and an empty bag of skill and their goal is to fill the skill bag before their luck bag runs out.
On a macro level were doing that on this rock
that's a fun way to cover beginner's luck
Oh wow... Realities "knocked" me hard by this... Thanks for this advise, truly... ❤️
27:25 'regression to mediocrity' and nice diagram outlining regression theory in statistics using horse pedigree
Thank you sir. Thank you Adam Kucharski sir.
A most wonderful presentation.
Reminds me of Isildur1 wild card strategy!
Oh God PLZ O.O
You are worthless
Is that a Tom Waits reference We're All Mad Here
43:06 interesting that rock-paper-scissors requires a huge increase in noise level.
Rock paper scissors shoot, multiplied a hundred times out of sync
Awesome. Can’t believe I watched the whole thing.
Great talk mate, well done
As one of your cousins from "across the pond" I really am impressed with the high quality of your public discourse, I really wish there was a comparable public institution to The Royal Institution over here. Really quality stuff and excellent presenters. Thanks so much for posting!
Thank you for your kinds words. We're very passionate about encouraging everyone to think more deeply about science and its place in our lives and we try to do this in part by widening access to science discourse. This is why we film and upload most of our public talks, why we create shorter videos and run a monthly podcast. Not everyone can come to our building in London, so we make sure you get almost the full experience online.
Google talks are sometimes awesome, I highly recommend ua-cam.com/video/vsMydMDi3rI/v-deo.html "Frank Abagnale: "Catch Me If You Can"
@@Minuz1 Thanks! I'll check them out.
Don't ever play in a blackjack table that has a CSM (card shuffler machine). Walk out or just hand them your money and save yourself time.
I liked how he talked about John von Neumann's analysis of poker, because I analyzed basically the exact same problem myself and got similar results: bet when you're big or small, but don't bet if you're somewhere in the middle. To be more specific, you should bet at the top 3/7 of cards, and bluff at the bottom 1/7 of cards, so more often than not you're being truthful on your bet. But this only applies with the specific rules where your opponent can't raise you.
Timestamp around 36:00 btw
I can remember golf being exploited quite a few years ago. The bet was hole-in-ones, you'd think it was a rare event and someone realised it wasn't and that it happened at every major tournament . The odds went down drastically after. An interesting one is that you can't bet on something like a streaker invading a match because you could put huge money on and actually make it happen. An interesting book is one called Betting for Fun and Profit, it gives a good insight into betting strategies etc.
43:15 "Well done. I wont fall for that again!!!!!"
Well,philosophers have long said that success is hard work plus luck.iam back to the drawing board for my next winning bet.thank you for this lecture.
Excellent! And thank you.
Most amazing seminar I ever seen
I'll say the title of this video has 5 to 2 odds of drawing in most gamblers to watch it !!! LOL
Wanna bet on that? ;)
Just a few people will get this... lol
that's a cool desk
I find that for intraday forex trend trading most important relevant (Guide)trend direction is ON 15 minute, 1h and 4h charts only-- For intraday trading weekly & monthly trends do not matter much(too far removed from intraday field of activity) & can be ignored. For simplicity sake if 15 minute ,1h & 4h trends are in the same direction, you have a trade set up in the same direction (one could fine tune entry 0n 5 minute charts). In general if daily candle be in the same direction for any trade it is better but not A must.--Sir, what do you have to say?
This was a superb talk.
I love the winning lottery anecdote. I had a similar situation with card counting at the casino in the 90's. i had a way of beating the system - without being detected (not true of traditional card counting systems). Everyone was skeptical (and remain so to this day) because, as they told me, if I could, I would be down at the casino making money, not talking about it. But I had already calculated that skinning the casino would be harder work than my paid job, less interesting, and inherently risky - as a winning strategy doesn't always amount to wining. I would have been gambling dangerously high ante levels to convert my 0.4% advantage per bet into an income.
as a winning strategy then it did not give you a big enough edge if your day job pays more
what a presenter !! how much knowledge does he have ! I'd need 10 packets of Panadol a day !! credit to you young fella well done and hope you are successful in anything you pursue
The lecture informally touches upon what we call Optimallity Theory, an attempt to measure the entanglement of variables in the possible dimensions of relationship, without identifying the genre.What appears to be optimal choices are affected by the relative optimality of other probabilities in the system.*
Systems variables showing complex functions/probabilities are divisible into simpler systems, into components where very simple limited choices can occur.
* Thus, your optimal choices may not seem immediately to be the one[s] with the most optimal immediate outcomes; life is complex, variable, reiterative, and the heuristics and analogies through which you make decisions are often not merely suboptimal subsequently, but can be downright destructively anti-optimal.
I realize I am not speaking of the zero-sum game called here, gambling; i merely desire to mention more interesting understandings to listeners, of far more important interactive behaviors in their lives.
Narrative, mentioned by Kucharski, is inherently heuristic - creating less accurately descriptive evaluation through cherry-picking emotionally salient sensory inputs.
The partial narratives evoked in memory by emotional events, such as "winning" in zero-sum games, attract other heuristics - presumptions formed through incomplete access to or sensory recognition of correlative relationship.
Consequently, human cognition is complex momentary structuring, rather than observation of reality. Such heuristics as attraction to confirmation bias, and disconfirmation avoidance can increasingly limit cognitive capacity. You then can properly regard dogmatic adherence as dementia. It tends to increase across time. this is a generality, but is why mathematicians and many others seem to be most creative early in life. Humans can become rigid in many ways as they advance beyond their learning-focused years, in any occupations that do not involve continuous learning and prefernce for learning over operating within the structures they have previously devised - the heuristics that seemed to give predictive value or reward.
It's actually worse than that in outcome, as there are other heuristics and perceptual/behavioral limitations which can't be elaborated in a mere comment.
thanks... worth the read 👍
interesting topic fantastically delivered
At 13:00 roughly he embarks on talking about Roulette, and the published results. The scientist who examined the results inadvertently caught the journalists lying, and making up numbers. The audience laughed.
Living in Las Vegas I have met a few APs, Advantage Players. They sometimes work in syndicates or teams. Teams working Roulette bias also find it implausible to sit at Roulette tables and measure wheel biases. They employ scouts to go from casino to casino reading the results boards that are used by casinos to attract customers, and reporting those results.
A Roulette team professional I heard on a vlog you can find on YT, stated that the method to catch Roulette scouts who cheat the team is to measure the double number results. That is, to see how often a single number pairs.
Cheating scouts will not include enough pairs in their fictitious results. This is a stark parallel to what the lecturer refers to. Incorrect results reporting is not nearly random enough in its' construction.
MarkH10 a
Deep Blue turned green when it saw how good I was.
Love the Mitsubishi add in the background. ;)
Love seeing people talk about odds and betting strat. Personally I like 1/3 bets. If you can win half of them then there's a 50% win margin for 50% accuracy rate. It's still a gamble, though.
Any risk analysis in finance involves some assigning (estimating) "probabilities" of a particular event happening. Decision-making in AI (specifically speaking to your Deep Blue example) similarly assigns probabilities and then picks one when it doesn't have a clear decision. The more complex the situation the more it uses weighted probabilities... just like humans. And we call that skill. But ironically, the more complex the situation is, the more likely that the result was determined by a random number generator. And we call that luck.
Skill is limiting the variability of luck. Or maybe it's the polarizing horse in your earlier example in multi-player.
Interesting talk. Thanks!
My gosh! This man's talk is unscripted, the flow is constant & appears to be unedited! Try talking on your fav. subject/topic for 55mins+ and hold your audience, be it the dog, or 60+ people in front of this chap - stunning! VBW Glenn x
He's using images along with it, it's entirely scripted. He just isn't going from a teleprompter or memory. It's how you give a lengthy speech or a lecture. You know the subject and arrange it in a manner that makes sense and flows well.
That was the best remedy for my insomnia. It bored me to sleep. Thanks!
Good speaker! Well performed
Great talk!
My take away is that when you beat the system, they call you up for a "chat"
yes!
only if you get too greedy....
The house eventually wins in Blackjack purely because you get the chance to go bust first. They may go bust on the same hand but you are already out of the game and they have taken your bet. Thus they effectively win when it's a draw. Worked that out meself, cool.
korkey999 there's a system out there where you always stand on 12 n over. Takes that out of equation n u win more guranteed
Damisn Silletti not according to the maths. If you can count the number of 10s dealt you can increase the odds but my memory is rubbish.
korkey999 if he has a ten you probably lost anyway so stand on all 12 or above the basic strategy is bullshit it turns out watch video i tried it on an app not real life works great try it
Th house does not necessarily. If you use a Blackjack Strategy Chart and sensible wagering strategy you can be on top. Blackjack is the best form of casino gambling, i.e. highest returns to punter. I played Blackjack online years ago and made a return of £400 per month before I moved onto sports trading.
korkey999. not true u need 2 be trainned by a card counter want 2 try that ? kevin lewis 119 w mitchell st. mil; wi 53204 text me at 1414 204-3426
Very well done! Wish there was more.
I am definite that as far as the horses are concerned, that probability is more definite when your formula is designed to ensure a more collaborated result or results base on 3 to 6 factors
You don't need to be a science or maths genius... it all comes down to price vs probability (ie +EV). The perfect bet is a bet on an event that will pay out more than the likelihood of that event happening, with a sensible staking plan. Actually really simple with today's betting exchange platforms.. Now just go and find a back price that exceeds true value.