I think sellers are still being really stubborn with their prices. I live in the SE and I'm starting to see properties that haven't moved for a very long time!
We’ve just put our house on the market, great timing eh? I’d be happy to see house prices drop by 10%, as long as the property we’re hoping to buy drops too then it won’t be too much of a problem. If lower house prices help to stabilise the market and help with affordability, then it’s got to be a positive. House sales will be flat, but anything to help people manage financially has to be a correction.
Something that I don’t think will help prices reduce though is the increase in living wage / min wage coming in April. With house prices closing in on 9* salary meaning most people realistically buy in a couple. With a full time min wage becoming roughly or just over 21k a year in April. It’s up around 2k per person. So 2 people buying together on min wage will have around 190k borrowing capacity or almost 20k more that before April this year. With low supply of cheap housing this is only going to push this part of the market higher as there isn’t supply
Great video!!! Thanks for breaking it down !!!. These past few days watching my crypto portfolio decline is very disheartening. Holding doesn't really profit much. Any ideas on how to earn better on the short run?
Where i live (east midlands), house prices have either stayed the same or have gone up a little bit. All I want is to get a 1 bed flat/house for an affordable price :( Banks only offer me a 100k loan MAX on my 30k salary
I just can't square the affordability aspect, because I literally can't borrow the same amount as two or even four years ago, even though I have more pay. Houses that were comfortably in my price range back then are no where near my comfortable range now at todays prices... like 20+ percent.
The banks will give you the money when house prices go up again so just pay you rent for the next two of three years and when the prices return you'll have no problem with the mortgage, just a quick lesson stop listening to you tubers
Warren Buffet also calls his home his "greatest folly". Interest rates went up by 3% on 5 year. So purchasing power went down by 25-30%. Incomes went up by 7%. So 20% down from the peak, housing is a market like everything else just takes a while to adjust, all the "limited supply" is gone now with inventory building up as it has every time.
If houses prices drop 30 percent. Which they wont. I think i will buy another buy to let because there is only 2 three beds to rent where i live and a 6 bedroom house to live in
@@stephen6262 Inflation is stubborn and bank rates will have to climb. Even the stock market is pricing this in for the last two days. Mortgage rates more like 7 or 8 percent. For less than 3% we would need QE again and that isn't going to happen.
Down £25-£30? I think it'll be significantly more than that. A single digit % drop is in the near future but over a 5-10year timescale they will continue to rise without significant intervention. The only intervention that would bring prices back to sanity/affordability is building social housing. Not likley however, labour want to get back above 70% home ownership. A laudable goal in the current situation but a better approach imo would see a market with 50% or higher rental market, with a powerful social sector and rent control.
Your guess is as good as anyone else's but your guess seems to be based on living in an alternate Universe. FAR too optimistic and not taking reality into account. Sorry.
@@eralec Where do you want to start? According to the latest Nationwide House Price Index based on STC/sale agreed the average house has been losing £1k per week since November. Inflation may have peaked but is sticky and will be with us for the foreseeable future. All affordability parameters you care to look at show that lenders are now going cold on all but the most watertight of cases. Mortgage approvals have fallen off a cliff. Buy to let landlords are selling portfolios in their droves as Section 24 and the end of tax breaks begin to bite. The market has now reversed with respect to registered interest to buy and newly registered vendors and the gap is widening meaning that fewer buyers are chasing increasing amounts of stock. This year, depending on which source you're happy to quote but around 750k fixed rate mortgage holders will be going to tracker or variable rate. A proportion of those will not be able to meet their mortgage obligations and will be repossessed. Cost of living this year is going to spiral as new tax rates come into effect in April. Council tax is going up by 5% and we have another round of energy price hikes likely in the short term. Fuel prices have come down somewhat but remain far higher than they were in 2020. Inflation has been significantly outstripping wage growth and will continue to do so for the foreseeable. Employment rates are coming down and are now facing significant headwinds as businesses go bust and people tighten their belts. There are indirect macro economic pressures from the war in Ukraine. We haven't even started to realise the pain yet as the economy is lagging about 4-6 months behind. In effect, we are about to hit the perfect storm.
I think prices will easily return to their pre-Covid levels, which is around -25%. This was wild speculation without precedent in recent times, and totally unsustainable in the current environment. I'm actually more interested in whether the drop would stop there. Houses were massively overpriced even before that. So my guess is that a total of -35% is possible to see in the next 1-2 years. High-interest rates are not going anywhere soon and the market is starting to price in even higher levels now...
@@SuperTench Lol, I like your "zero chances". And people like you just accepted as completely normal that prices shot up 25% in mere 2 years? If you bought in these 2 years, buckle up buddy, you'll be in for a huge surprise...
@@SycAamore if you think In a housing market with so little supply, in an economy with record wage rises that prices will drop 25% you are indeed deluded and you will be the one in for a shock
We have a family friend who sold her Surrey house at the beginning of 2022. She was shocked to be constantly outbid throughout most of that year for houses at around the 1,200,000 price range and in the end, had no choice but to rent a house on August 22. She has now noticed a complete shortage of nice houses in good areas, good schools ect coming onto the market. She hates having to waste money on the massive rent and has an £800,000 deposit but because of a complete shortage of nice houses in this price range is still unable to buy.
Thanks for all the info you share on your channel. The way I see it I can keep paying over £1100 in rent and bills or I can put those money towards a mortgage and start building some equity, rather than having those savings sitting in a bank account.. is it wrong thinking this way?
Thanks to Plum for sponsoring this video. Open an account today and start saving: go.mattbrighton.co.uk/plumsavings
Where in UK did house prices drop? West Midlands are the same or slightly higher.
Same here in the East Midlands! It's frustrating as I've been priced out the market from interest rate rise and a pay dispute keeping my wages down
Is that asking prices or sold prices? Where I live asking prices have increased 4% but actual sale achieved prices is down 11%.
@@kevinhelton3489 Sold prices even the houses that need extensive amount of work
I think sellers are still being really stubborn with their prices. I live in the SE and I'm starting to see properties that haven't moved for a very long time!
@@Dixo619 I was also thinking this might be the case... Sellers refusing to lower their prices.
We’ve just put our house on the market, great timing eh? I’d be happy to see house prices drop by 10%, as long as the property we’re hoping to buy drops too then it won’t be too much of a problem. If lower house prices help to stabilise the market and help with affordability, then it’s got to be a positive. House sales will be flat, but anything to help people manage financially has to be a correction.
Something that I don’t think will help prices reduce though is the increase in living wage / min wage coming in April.
With house prices closing in on 9* salary meaning most people realistically buy in a couple. With a full time min wage becoming roughly or just over 21k a year in April. It’s up around 2k per person.
So 2 people buying together on min wage will have around 190k borrowing capacity or almost 20k more that before April this year. With low supply of cheap housing this is only going to push this part of the market higher as there isn’t supply
saw a flat offer today that has been reduced from 475000 to 36500 since last year, sure it is in the South of London. But that is a neat drop.
Thats a great price for London
Quite a substantial drop. Buyers market. Just going to keep getting better.
It dropped over 400k?
@@networth00 think they meant 365,000
@@alexsavva6315 i was joking
Great video!!! Thanks for breaking it down !!!. These past few days watching my crypto portfolio decline is very disheartening. Holding doesn't really profit much. Any ideas on how to earn better on the short run?
Please provide a source for the 1st graph - Real House Prices Indexed at Peak.
Can you make a video for those who want to buy now- is it better to take 2 years fixed mortage or 5 years?
Where i live (east midlands), house prices have either stayed the same or have gone up a little bit. All I want is to get a 1 bed flat/house for an affordable price :( Banks only offer me a 100k loan MAX on my 30k salary
I just can't square the affordability aspect, because I literally can't borrow the same amount as two or even four years ago, even though I have more pay. Houses that were comfortably in my price range back then are no where near my comfortable range now at todays prices... like 20+ percent.
The banks will give you the money when house prices go up again so just pay you rent for the next two of three years and when the prices return you'll have no problem with the mortgage, just a quick lesson stop listening to you tubers
Warren Buffet also calls his home his "greatest folly". Interest rates went up by 3% on 5 year. So purchasing power went down by 25-30%. Incomes went up by 7%. So 20% down from the peak, housing is a market like everything else just takes a while to adjust, all the "limited supply" is gone now with inventory building up as it has every time.
The only housing supply that could affect prices is social housing.
Decommodify housing!
If houses prices drop 30 percent. Which they wont. I think i will buy another buy to let because there is only 2 three beds to rent where i live and a 6 bedroom house to live in
Why won't they?
@@nicky_nike Cos in-denial.
Morgage rates dropping now 1 yeatr be under 3 percent
@@stephen6262 Inflation is stubborn and bank rates will have to climb. Even the stock market is pricing this in for the last two days. Mortgage rates more like 7 or 8 percent. For less than 3% we would need QE again and that isn't going to happen.
If government don’t intervene then price should be corrected to -25 to -30
Down £25-£30? I think it'll be significantly more than that. A single digit % drop is in the near future but over a 5-10year timescale they will continue to rise without significant intervention. The only intervention that would bring prices back to sanity/affordability is building social housing.
Not likley however, labour want to get back above 70% home ownership. A laudable goal in the current situation but a better approach imo would see a market with 50% or higher rental market, with a powerful social sector and rent control.
Are you messy or is it just a background decoration for a house crash?
Neither - moved house
The market where I am - west London zone 2 - is very odd. Most of new flat listings have asking price 10%+ from sold prices last year.
Flats are very hot right now nearer cities, definitely feels like the 'return to work' after the 'race for space'
But they aren't selling, asking prices don't mean much.
I enjoy all your videos. You are putting so much effort into your videos. Thank you. We appreciate you so much, Matt:)
this didn't age well...
Your guess is as good as anyone else's but your guess seems to be based on living in an alternate Universe. FAR too optimistic and not taking reality into account. Sorry.
It's more based on comparing historical data and looking at theories and assumptions - None are right, none are wrong.
@@sparkymmilarky Tell me why. I'm all ears. Actually I think it will be the worst crash in history.
@@demosthenes1296you tell us why you think that please
@@eralec Where do you want to start?
According to the latest Nationwide House Price Index based on STC/sale agreed the average house has been losing £1k per week since November.
Inflation may have peaked but is sticky and will be with us for the foreseeable future.
All affordability parameters you care to look at show that lenders are now going cold on all but the most watertight of cases. Mortgage approvals have fallen off a cliff.
Buy to let landlords are selling portfolios in their droves as Section 24 and the end of tax breaks begin to bite. The market has now reversed with respect to registered interest to buy and newly registered vendors and the gap is widening meaning that fewer buyers are chasing increasing amounts of stock.
This year, depending on which source you're happy to quote but around 750k fixed rate mortgage holders will be going to tracker or variable rate. A proportion of those will not be able to meet their mortgage obligations and will be repossessed.
Cost of living this year is going to spiral as new tax rates come into effect in April. Council tax is going up by 5% and we have another round of energy price hikes likely in the short term. Fuel prices have come down somewhat but remain far higher than they were in 2020.
Inflation has been significantly outstripping wage growth and will continue to do so for the foreseeable.
Employment rates are coming down and are now facing significant headwinds as businesses go bust and people tighten their belts.
There are indirect macro economic pressures from the war in Ukraine.
We haven't even started to realise the pain yet as the economy is lagging about 4-6 months behind.
In effect, we are about to hit the perfect storm.
@healthiswealth6797 for every 1 property sold 4 come onto the market atm :/
I think prices will easily return to their pre-Covid levels, which is around -25%. This was wild speculation without precedent in recent times, and totally unsustainable in the current environment. I'm actually more interested in whether the drop would stop there. Houses were massively overpriced even before that. So my guess is that a total of -35% is possible to see in the next 1-2 years. High-interest rates are not going anywhere soon and the market is starting to price in even higher levels now...
Zero chance that happens
@@SuperTench Lol, I like your "zero chances". And people like you just accepted as completely normal that prices shot up 25% in mere 2 years? If you bought in these 2 years, buckle up buddy, you'll be in for a huge surprise...
@@SycAamore if you think In a housing market with so little supply, in an economy with record wage rises that prices will drop 25% you are indeed deluded and you will be the one in for a shock
Hello Moving Home with Charlie
We have a family friend who sold her Surrey house at the beginning of 2022. She was shocked to be constantly outbid throughout most of that year for houses at around the 1,200,000 price range and in the end, had no choice but to rent a house on August 22. She has now noticed a complete shortage of nice houses in good areas, good schools ect coming onto the market. She hates having to waste money on the massive rent and has an £800,000 deposit but because of a complete shortage of nice houses in this price range is still unable to buy.
Don’t just do something…. Stand there !
That weather forecast table needs to have a first time buyer / owner toggle to reverse the symbols… price rises aren’t great for us all!
I'll be dancing in the rain too.
" HAHAHA "
great video and analysis, cheers
Thanks for all the info you share on your channel. The way I see it I can keep paying over £1100 in rent and bills or I can put those money towards a mortgage and start building some equity, rather than having those savings sitting in a bank account.. is it wrong thinking this way?
I don’t think it’s wrong thinking that way, on the contrary ;)
I can't see anything but a more substantial drop coming for us