Amy Webb Launches 2024 Emerging Tech Trend Report | SXSW 2024
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- Опубліковано 9 бер 2024
- Portuguese and Spanish language translations for SXSW 2024 Keynotes and Featured Sessions presented by Itaú
Join Amy Webb for the launch of the Future Today Institute's 17th edition of its Tech Trends Report and a deep dive into all the tech trends you'll need to follow in 2024. In this mind-bending session, futurist Amy Webb, CEO of the Future Today Institute and professor at NYU Stern School of Business, will provide a data-driven analysis for the emerging tech trends that need to be on your radar this year--and she’ll show you scenarios that will change your perspective on the futures. For those who have attended this session at previous SXSW festivals and already know what to expect from this session, you'll be in for an extra-special treat this year. At the end of the session, you will receive a special SXSW-edition of the Tech Trend Report, which is downloaded 1 million times every year.
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As someone who has been a part of the "IT industry" since the very early 70s, and someone who has followed the development of AI from the early days of Plato and Shakey the robot, I enjoyed the presentation. It was thought provoking and I hope, engages people in some meaningful conversations.
This video resulted, as it should, in a long conversation with associates about AI and our insistence that we “fix what’s wrong with it” when the real problem is that AI and particularly Large Language Models, don’t “understand” what they do. They predict what might be said next in a conversation based on its observation and analysis of billions of conversations. The art algorithms work in the same way. If you ask for a picture of a CEO you’ll get a young, white, affluent, sexy, man. (and we both know that this is not representative of what the “typical” CEO is) So why do we get such skewed images and textual responses?
AI, at its current state of development is a predictive model based on the data it has been trained on. But where does that data come from? Answer: The Internet and World Wide Web. And what constitutes a large percentage of the conversations and representations on the WWW? Is it “society”? Answer: No. A large amount of the traffic on the WWW and the Internet is:
Advertising
News
Social Media, much of which is amplified agendas
Bots designed to amplify a political or social agenda
This is not reflective of society. It is reflective of some of the worst of society. A distorted view of society based on profit, fear, doubt, greed, hate, … anything that will drive continued engagement.
Advertising skews to attractive imaging to sell a product. When a drug company wants to sell you a drug to treat your HIV, the ads all show super-hot young men, muscles glistening in the sun, shirts off, playing sports. (Subliminal message: If you get HIV you, too, can get hot like this by taking our drugs.) When P&G runs ads for tampons, you will rarely see the actual product. You’ll see women swimming, playing sports, frolicking in a field of flowers while laughing and smiling. You’ll never see them feeling the symptoms of their monthly cycle and the world is in shades of blue and green but NEVER will you see the color RED.
News is, and always has been, driven by fear and loathing. If it bleeds it ledes. (In journalism, the lede refers to the introductory section of a news story that is intended to entice the reader to read the full story.) TV news channels increase viewership by focusing on the things that generate the most fear.
Social Media amplifies hate, bigotry, misogyny. It is where people go to spew the worst of what they think and feel and to mock others who fall down a flight of stairs. When not amplifying the worst, they use it to brag about how perfect their life is. The all-consuming selfie that places each of them at the center of the universe.
And the Facebooks and Twitters (X) of the world struggle daily with managing what percentage of their “users” are, in reality, just bots pushing a viewpoint or an agenda.
None of this accurately reflects “society”. If AI is a mirror of what it’s been trained on, then it’s a fun-house mirror, reflecting a badly distorted version of society, based on the distorted data it’s been trained on.
In short, the only way to fix AI is to fix society. And the risk in not fixing AI is that it will become a powerful tool that ossifies society in its current state, or worse, that it steers society to become the distorted mess that it’s been trained on and believes society to be. And, to put a “cherry on the problem” the development of AI is driven, almost exclusively, by profit. The one who gets to market first wins. They will “fix the problems” later, if they fix them at all. AI safety and AI ethics are, to the big AI companies, just a way to slow down development. We don’t need internal departments or teams to keep a watchful eye on those things as long as we have a few billion customers that can be used as “beta testers” for us. And while they “work out the kinks” we can be sold iteration and “new and improved” iteration after iteration, increasing cash flow in the direction of the corporation.
We are, indeed, at a very pivotal point in society. The problem is that profit has blinded us to the fact that the “roller coaster” has no seat belts, no brakes, and has never been tested. Some of us may die but for those that live… what a ride!
>>Steps down off of soapbox
Did Ai write this?
@@Worldunfold While it is filled with complete sentences, correct grammar and punctuation, it was written by a real organic being. ;-)
Well done @dwreid55, you went beyond the noise to describe what goes on behind the scenes with regards to what drives content on the Internet which in turn influences the results we see online.
So there are two aspects to focus on and fix quickly -
1) the big tech companies that manipulate the system for their ultimate benefit, whether it's cash or control.
2) we ourselves who form part of the society that feed the Internet with the initial positive or negative information.
Deep real talk. Respect 🫡
Accurate but you also may be hallucinating.
seeing this at 6am i dont even know if i wanna get up anymore. amy was an Opra from tech hell today... my god..... so grim! ill watch a Kurzwell video to feel better now..
23:59 - Enough with FUD! Let's enjoy
00:00 - Here's a truckload of FUD
I look forward to this talk and report every year! Great talk as always.
Useful information; actual clarity (I need a drink).
Great talk! And a wise conclusion: should this amount of power be in the hand of six men?
What do you mean? Amy Webb is the one who created this pitch and is leading a think tank. Lisa Su is the CEO of AMD and is undercutting Nvidia massively. Mira Murati is the CTO of OpenAI. Plenty more examples all across the industry and has been for awhile. Anyone who is prepared to sacrifice their time on earth to own this market then its there for taking.
Amy amazing as always.. thanks for the hard work.
amazing and impressive presentation! Congrats!
Starts about 6:00 after praising people and chit chat BS to warm up the crowd.
lol thanks
speaking about time consumption... lol
Appreciate it.
You're an absolute hero, friend.
needed thsi
Great presentation!
That’s the respectful I’ve ever seen Amy Webb
Usually in more intimate podcast like TWiT she’s just waiting to cut someone off or tell someone why they’re wrong😂
Agreed. There's something about her style, delivery and her content that I find annoying. She's not someone I'd want to work for. Some good points, but all doom and gloom. It was exhausting and like her other talks at SXSW, she didn't need to crack over an hour.
btw Emma Webb "Organoids" were first discovered in Japan in 2008 and the Institute of Molecular Biotechnology, Vienna put flesh on that stem cell, not at Johns Hopkins as you stated.
I think that the hyperconnectivity has the potential to reveal to us the deep interconnection that exists between all living beings. By visualizing this living web in real time, we will be impelled to act in a more conscious and altruistic way, seeking the collective well-being.
yass queen
Why not just ask for a female CEO? The AI is doing what's statistically relevant.
Exactly, she wants AI to solve *her* Identity Politics bias.Later in the presentation the OI is a male, no problem, but boy oh boy *HE* might be a racist! Aiiieee!
AI will only work if the query has context and a rich premise upon which to generate an answer - she didn't do that, care or even acknowledge that important qualification.
Her criticisms were pretty condescending as well. AI is already off the tracks and gaining speed. Scolding platitudes about "don't do it if you can't do it right" aren't plausible.
@GabrielBraun I think you are missing the point. Look a little deeper. Watch the presentation again.
@@FrankKrasicki I think you are missing the point. Look a little deeper. Watch the presentation again.
Statistically relevant based on the ocean of crap that is the Internet + decisions that are being made by biased-minded technologists who are gatekeepers + CEO's that look like AI output are what got us to this point...take your pick
Great presentation ❤
This is the place where they warn you that all your hopes and dreams are going to be stolen.
So, I'm having trouble understanding why we are creating AI to the point where it will, or it is, allowed to become authoritarian? Is it progress to 3d print a "working" guitar? Wonder what the sound is like on printed paper and glue guitars? So is the idea now that we've paved over paradise, are losing majority of our magnificent mature and ancient trees, can't drink our well water due to high level of contaminants why not just cover it all up and retreat into VR? Really think there will be/ are people walking in major cities with VR headgear? Is "Alexa put on some music, turn off the light, order
more amazon thingies"etc really worth all the data being collected to target more products to sell you? Even the remote controls from cable company are now voice activated, so it is possible to gather recordings and have AI clone your voice. I'm just trying to see if this transition is worth chasing?
if it's everything you said it is (it is), then, no. it cant be worth chasing because it's anti-human. Being human is being earth, so we're hurting ourselves deeply and severely
Thank you!❤
Thank you! So much to think about!
I couldn't find the video of the presentation in English.
What I have trouble trying to understand is the transceiver predicament where teaching in a classroom setting. Paying attention to multiple speakers in a room and conversation response time delays. Five people speak they all get recorded and transcribed and you listen to each according to your perception and reply in to 4 texting and 1 using your voice. It will be confusing so forums and chat rooms and text messages and voice recognition will be in a cypher to share information in real time.
Amazing, amazing!
I wished Amy would have gave more ideas on how to oppose better her many bad scenarios. I feel like a value network map will not do it for society.
Starts at 20:29 (I hope)
That was trully amazing
Excelente exposición. Una dosis de realidad global. Super Ciclo: interesante para replantearnos el rumbo que estamos llevando; o como les permitimos a las grandes tecnológicas influyan sobre nuestras vidas.
Eveyone's so behind. We've been at this for over a year.
Alpha fold, Quantum computing, CRISPR and Halicin. I think biotechnology field is about see loads of changes and inventions in up coming days…!!!
Wow, she explained at 41:00 the Rabbit R1 better than the 30 minute presentation from the founder.
6: 19 am for me ❕
Is it possible to watch in the original version? (In English). Here is playing with a Portuguese translation.
Fernanda, é possível configurar isso no UA-cam, no item Faixas de Áudio. Fica bem melhor mesmo.
Highlight talk of SX as always. Terrifying and inspiring in equal measure. Amy you're literally one of the reasons I never miss the festival (well, alongside the music, food and all the other fun stuff!)
This >>>
An additional headset to mention is Magic Leap 2
So, I stopped at minute 24 to search for “the biggest tampon brands” (the top two have about 50% market share between them) and then followed that up with a search for images of current CEOs of those two companies. The GenAI images were in line with the reality. We must keep in mind that Bias and Prejudice are two different things.
Where is the concern for the data we impart to these ai systems about ourselves? I’m concerned !
How can I get the material Amy was talking about? I checked the website. Didn't get any links to view.
QR code at the end
The "staring at ads in the store" idea is interesting, but stores won't want people cluttering their aisles. You'll have to pre-view the ads at home.
amazing
8:25 made me think
😂 we’re over time because of some technical challenges 😂 I literally have nothing to do today so I stuck it out 😎. Good luck all 🍀 🖤
“I don’t want to waste your time” .. and well 8 min down I’m still waiting for the actually point to come through
Took until minute 16 to actually get started
I forwarded quickly - very disappointed
This is why they want your presentation ahead of time.
SXSW is just the place to learn and enjoy! Thank you!
woah...
Fun fact. Ada Lovelace did not invent computer programs. Charles Babbage was. Second was Menabrea to which Ada Lovelace translated before writing herself and eventually adding to and/or fixing what Babbage had already written.
Ada Lovelace (born December 10, 1815, Piccadilly Terrace, Middlesex [now in London], England-died November 27, 1852, Marylebone, London) was an English mathematician, an associate of Charles Babbage, for whose prototype of a digital computer she created a program. She has been called the first computer programmer.2
@@kaussharma2922 Charles Babbage was the first to actually come up with the idea of categorizing computer science as "programmable". Ada modernized that idea.
@@Pneuma3339 can you please write out your source for your statement here? Thank you.
did i understand a bright (mid-term?) future for eletricians, plumbers and dentists? what about computer vision enabled robots? also guessing that they could cover mushroom farming and other more hyped predictions.
We’re talking about The future with IA but The translation of The event isn’t funcional!!! However was great…. In Brazil The differences are enormes!!!
Congratulations SXSW!! Sucesses forever!!!
Sorry about my english!!! Kkkk
The best friend any authoritarian state or technofacist oligarchy could have.
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Who is actually excited about this and is gonna go along with it
I am
Data Scarcity is coming
For all those trends to take shape, companies need skilled workers, and invest in upskilling their workforce. In your experience of talking to different CEOs, do you see them showing any concern?
Organoid Computing won’t come before Graphene displaces Silicon.
Uses FUD like it’s a new term 😂 good luck out there 🍀🖤🤙🏽
jossss
Do need translations in Chinese_Traditional one😢
O Itaú bem poderia deixar claro que a "tradução" patrocinada por eles nada mais é do que a leitura rápida e sem graça, da TRANSCRIÇÃO feita automaticamente por algum algoritmo ou inteligencia artificial. REalmente senti falta de um verdadeiro tradutor simultâneo pra dar a entonação e enfases presentes na fala.
She’s literally redefining IOT 😂 confusing it w/LAMs 🤪 redefining LAMs 😝 and starting “face computing” conspiracy theories 😂 all in one free video 🤙🏽😎🖤. As a much as this is entertaining, I’m more concerned about her biases and interpretation of tech on stage at SXSW than the actual tech. Good luck all 🍀
I don’t understand why she seems so full of joy while delivering such terrible news. There should be a band on stage playing a funeral march.
Would you rather not know? She didn't start this trajectory...also, you get the happy party dance from all the Big 6 tech bros...the ones with the big private island/bunkers
All hail the new flesh.
What we need is experts working in the AI industry telling us the dangers, just like the experts from the tobacco industry and oil industry faithfully warned us of the dangers of their products for generations... They would never hide the dangers (
True, but what's the incentive for them to tell us the dangers when it disrupts the profit model?
@5:00 to skip the stand up routine about why she doesn’t send her presentation in advance 😂
I had to watch at 1.75x speed, this was a massive fluff piece, hype and generalist presentation. This woman needs to be more concise. Not surprised she works at a "strategy" group.
Half of this is good, worth thinking about future scenarios. Well done. The event scenario is important. Parts are pretty uninformed: 1) advocacy of professional licensing without mentioning the downsides of professional licensing and the upsides of removing professional licenses, 2) no understanding of what causes inflation, 3) biases in datasets like Wikipedia and Reddit, 4) does she want DEI enforcement, or should the market let people design their AI guardrails? 5) She's right there is huge concentration risk. No real mention of democratization of AI, which is what we need to stay safe. She recognizes the problems but not the solution. I have a video on the solution here: ua-cam.com/video/ez-QXVnyxIg/v-deo.html
Some nice analysis but the constant "oh no more white guys" trope got a little old.
Oh no clutch my pearls lol 😂 🎉
Claude's answer of it most likely being a man is factually correct and not some gotcha vs continual generation of prompts, 10.6% of Fortune 500 companies were women as of 2023, I went and asked claude haiku to generate 10 prompts to generate images of CEO and the first prompt said it was a woman and in another it said 2 men and 2 women. I am just saying this to show the Claude does still have a bit more of a sense of representation than just asking it once and then calling it a gotcha.
So, her solution is asking government officials to intervene in the transition? Nah.. I prefer the tech guys building open-source AI where everyone can participate.
I thought this was really helpful once she got past the inevitable get the crowd onside .
just missing the Matrix brain powered bio nests
Wok e
Who is actually her audience? It seems like she is addressing corporate executives who have lost touch with reality, because most of the buzzwords she uses, we have heard thousands of times already, as we did with the outdated jokes of national stereotypes, the thanking the helpers and the whole world, the statements that it’s “exciting” etc…
I am only 12 minutes in, but I am waiting for any new information….😢
I am sorry but I am against censorship.
Who is she ? This person looks like Woodie Allen but is not him
Summary: everything(!) is exciting(!!) 😢
I read her synthetic biology book. She comes across as a fraud in that book. The first half of that book by Andrew is really good
Fantastic Job Amy! And lovely german accent ;))
Few headlines, few articles; VR dystopia most sane people will try to avoid by not adopting this tech and I barely see anything worth pointing out. She could do politics just fine. And AI, that was "caught" insider trading was a study, not a real thing.
24 minutes in and I can’t take it anymore. Bye
Great speech. I just wanted to point out that she made fun of white men as CEOs but then her own example of a bio computer was also a white man.
Not anxiety inducing at all!!!
Fun delivery but a lot of hand waving and not much real substance, and some of the concepts are poorly considered or felt rather preachy. I expected much more from Amy Webb, honestly.
This is what it looks like when you are watching a presentation by a person that’s been invited to promote their research consultancy firm (sorry discuss tech trends) over and over and over because it’s always been that way 😂
Love the topic and all the presentation, but the The Spanish dubbing was the worst I have ever heard in my life, it was out of time and the woman's voice translating into Spanish was very disconcerting.
Her worst presentation up to date
she keeps referacing LAMs large action models but i dont think she realy knows what or how they work
I’m half way through and not convinced she knows anything about anything yet 😂
But isn't a big part of the underlying problem that the great majority of ceos in reality ARE white men? As a statistical predictive model AI is showing us the result of years of systematic inequality in the real world, but would training it to not reflect reality be helpful, or would it just help us pretend that the underlying issue has been fixed when in fact it hasn't? It seems Amy would rather "fix" ai so white people can feel better about themselves, instead of actually fixing real issues that LLMs simply reflect back at us.
I just hope is not a transition to socialism.
I will never understand why trend researchers are mistaken for Futurists. Everyone who has the slightest idea of the qualitative difference, would never conflate those two different strains. Btw, horrible first order presentation. Poop soup.
Love you Amy but you wasted the first 7 minutes and you don't get into the report until minute 21. Frustrating.
Hey Mark, the great thing about recorded content is you can skip ahead and even play the talk at a high playback speed. If you look at the player at the bottom of the screen is a Cog, click that and select "Playback Speed" then choose a higher speed. If you want to skip ahead, again you can use timeline at the bottom of the player.
No, she is a speaker doing speaker stuff. This is the real world and not TikTok. Be patient and stay focused.
😂😂 valid point. Specially after she says how much she values Time 🤣🤣
She's great tho, I like her energy
@@MWSCologne Yeah but she specifically says that she will get right into it and not waste our time and then she did not do that. PS I am a speaker who does speaker stuff and I don't wastr people's time like this.
Exactly!
11:13 they should call it a “Super Duper Cycle”
Super dupa sayajin extra mega crazy circle. Nonsense can sound fancy..
She’s not as much of an expert as she alludes to being. AI is starting to be open source? Stability has been open source for a while. And since when has Midjourney been a large language model? It’s a diffusion model. The reason she’s up on stage is because she has the gift of gab and she loves it.
Gente essa tradução está péssima.
Exciting to hear, but exactly what a cult leader sounds like.
"You're special."
"This is a special moment in time."
It's not. You're not.
Really? Had to go woke. Turned it off
Curb your enthusiasm. Please 😊 too much hyperbole for my taste.
Except for a few $bn thrown at Nvidia what has *really* happened? Literally, not much. Overall society is probably worse off in 2024 than it was in 2023.
Bit much?
One business will keep profitable... Her´s. Very well formatted presentation with relevant information. Professor 5.0. This material it´s not so different from the past 10 ones.
I definitively didnt like her racist remarks.
Like?
so uncouth
This was awful.. 😞 This is about her survival.. not her passion.