How Brexit Has Changed British Politics for Ever
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- Опубліковано 1 гру 2024
- In this new Federal Trust video, John Stevens and Brendan Donnelly discuss the dismissal of Suella Braverman and the appointment of David Cameron. Does this represent a new political path for the Conservative Party and Rishi Sunak? Or is it simply the latest throw of the dice for a divided Party that will be reversed before Christmas?
SPEAKERS
Brendan Donnelly is the Director of the Federal Trust and a former Conservative MEP.
John Stevens Chair of the Federal Trust and an analyst and commentator on economic affairs.
ABOUT THE FEDERAL TRUST
The Federal Trust is a research institute studying regional, national, European and global levels of government. It has always had a particular interest in the European Union and Britain’s place in it. The Federal Trust has no allegiance to any political party. It is registered as a charity for the purposes of education and research.
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#Brexit
#rejoineu
#braverman
#sunak
COPYRIGHT
Image of Suella Braverman (background removed by Federal Trust):
© House of Lords 2022 / photography by Roger Harris
ukhouseoflords, CC BY 2.0 (creativecommon..., via Wikimedia Commons: commons.wikime...
Image of David Cameron (background removed by Federal Trust):
Screaming Bertha, CC BY 2.0 (creativecommon..., via Wikimedia Commons
commons.wikime...
Official portrait of Rishi Sunak )background removed by Federal Trust), commons.wikime..., Chris McAndrew, CC BY 3.0 (creativecommon..., via Wikimedia Commons
What the Tories really underestimated was how many voters they would lose forever because of the idiocy and treachery of supporting Brexit. They will never get those voters back.
Parliament voted for Brexit, including the Labour leader (a lifelong Brexiteer) and many on the Labour benches. They had a choice, and they went with the 37% who endorsed Brexit rather then the 63% who didn't. Yes, in real constitutional referendums the abstainers are counted for the status quo.
The country has been in chaos since Brexit .
It's been a nightmare,
Yes, open boarders and a Pandemic will do that. As well as a governments voted in who then do a complete 180 on a ton of things.
I miss being able to afford an average life from working hard 😢
What a massive snub it must be for the 350 Tory MPs that Rishi didn't choose from their ranks, chose Cameron instead.
John Stevens may be right about R Sunak trying to put Brexit behind (many things) where it becomes "mission impossible" is trying to show the Tory party as a competent and business-oriented party. Why? Simply because Tories have just demonstrated over and over again that the country's interests, business' interest were far far away in their priorities. Competence? Really? Would you call all the noble people that stayed 10 Downing street (Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak competent? Hell no, the question is about the ambiguity: Crooks or Stupids?
Are British politicians (Tories of course and also Labour) trying to put Brexit behind? NO, they are trying to hide it under the carpet and the only viable future for the UK is to face frankly its past mistakes (Brexit) and correct them No hiding, no putting behind. The clock is ticking and the more time is wasted, the harder it will be.
Correct. "Putting Brexit behind us" and "moving on" are the common ground of the discourse of both Sunak and Starmer. But of course you are right they are both, in fact, trying to hide it, and Brexit cannot be hidden, because it is tearing apart our country at every level, in clear sight, and with that, the former fabric of our politics and democracy. Time is indeed short. But how to get that facing up to reality and thus the necessary sense of urgency to put rejoining the EU asap onto the national agenda?
Two serious sensible men. They should run a Government.
You trust two nearly senile toffs of the 20th century to run a country in the turbulant 21st century?
@@AlexGys9no ... we need dogmatic cretins with no conception of actions, consequences and the brass neck to blame every other bu99er when the wheels come off.
Two Tories eh? I wouldn't trust them to run a bath!
The incredible irony is that Cameron held the Brexit referendum to stop the civil war within the conservative party, but instead, the poor economic side effects of Brexit is ripping the conservative party to shreds.
Conservatives have ceded the center ground to Labour and will not regain power again after Labour wins until they exercise the ghost of right-wing radicalism within its own ranks. This next election will be the most important election in Vrotosh politics in 50 years.
Cameron is indeed now part of the civil war he fancied he could prevent by the Brexit referendum and is likely to be as unsuccessful in his new role as he was then.
Vlad has destroyed the tory party and uk's reputation in the world. He will likewise try to destroy the labour party with their left wing. UK will not start the path to recovery until it has proposonal elections. Until then the country is wide open for manipulation.
I believe the EU is very likely to make our adopting a proportional voting system a condition of our rejoining in any event.@@ulfosterberg9116
All part of a ruse, Tory propaganda and theatre. The referendum had been planned long before and essential part of carrying out its real purpose.
The referendum was about adopting EU Defence Union and they'd claim a remain result was consenting to it.
Cameron is the tory that has made me never vote tory again.
Oh, I've got you beat you by several decades there. TINA managed that with her grotesque flogging off of the family silver .... and we got not so much as a mess of potage by way of return.
Mind you, when compared with the Idiots Incumbent .....
Thanks for the video!
Many Brexiteers claim to be also Thatcherites, I believe that Margaret Thatcher would be horrified at the current state of the Conservative party.
I'm also sure she would have been opposed to the UK leaving the EU, yes she was very critical of the EU but I don't recall her ever suggesting we should leave.
In office, definitely you are right. However, in her retirement she became increasingly anti-European, though Charles Powell, is adamant that she would never, even then, have supported actually leaving. And I also agree she would be horrified by the state of the Conservatives today, for multiple reasons, quite independent of Brexit..
You should read her book "Statecraft". Her final view was that Britain should leave the EU, and should never have joined in the first place. She regretted the extension of QMV in return for the single market. "_Every problem Britain has ever had has come from Europe, and every solution has come from the English-speaking peoples around the world_" - that's what she said.
@@JupiterThunder Really, well all I can say to that, is she was probally getting a little senile in her later years.
I know she campaigned most enthusiatically for the UK to join before the referendum in 1975, there is footage of her touring the country at the time wearing a jumper with all the flags of the EU countries on it, the Tory party at the time was all for joining.
Admittedly she turned against the EU while in government, but while she was PM she never mentioned leaving. To claim that 'every problem Britain ever had has come from Europe' is absolutely demented.
@@vivwindsor4055 I thought she was indeed demented over German re-unification, the only matter on which I had personal direct contact with her. It was what pushed me into supporting Michael Hesltine's campaign to topple her.
The UK electorate never voted to Join the Franco-German project sorry, the EU in the first place.
Thank you, a very good talk.
Whatever Brexit has become, what astonishes me even more is the unwillingness on the part of Thatcherite cultists (like these two discussants) to acknowledge the causal connection between their economic certainties and Brexit itself.
As someone who was very actively involved in Michael Heseltine's campaign to remove Mrs Thatcher from office I am intrigued to be considered "a dedicated Thatcherite". Brexit however was indeed, in part a revolt against Thatcherite liberal economics, by those "left behind" by its impact. But then it was also promoted, and its campaigning largely funded, by advocates of ultra liberal economics in the hope it would entrench or even increase such inequalities. The incoherence of the Brexit project which is destroying our politics.
@@JohnStevens-gp7ge You don't have to have put up a shrine in her name in your basement to be "dedicated" to her disastrous dogma. It's enough that you oppose (as most , if not all, Tories do) any policy that doesn't punish the poor and the powerless - precisely what contributed in no small measure to Brexit (think Universal Credit and austerity if in doubt). Yet, instead of acknowledging your errors, you're blaming Brexit, which, whatever horrors it has inflicted on the country, didn't cause itself.
The "advocates of ultra liberal economics" may have funded the campaign, but I'm sure even you will acknowledge that they were exploiting a desperate socioeconomic situation, particularly in the deprived areas of the country.
I have not been a Conservative since 1999. Brexit has made addressing the problems of inequality of which you correctly complain vastly more difficult. Perhaps you Brexiteers of the Left (which I take to be your position) should have reflected more deeply (and listened to your Continental allies) before lending your vote to the ultra liberal coterie backing Boris Johnson and Michael Gove (and Nigel Farage) in the referendum campaign? This piece raises the prospect of a Far Right party replacing the Conservatives after the next GE. If that comes about, and secures power, Cameron's austerity policies (your critique of which I understand) will seem like a picnic.
I saw a clip of a commentator asking an MP is the appointment of David Cameron like the second coming?
Essentially saying that David Cameron is Jesus coming to save the conservative Party.
Brilliant as always..
Interesing analysis. Thanks.
Yes, I agree Sunak is struggling to try to keep his party together and the Conservatives will be hammered in a general election. However, a Starmer labour Govt will also struggle because the economic and political conditions are difficult & complex and, crucially, it does not yet have a coherent way to revive seamless trade with the EU, or some alternative policy to recover business lost.
Correct. I should have said more perhaps about how Labour is also trying to deny Brexit and go back to an old politics that Brexit (and the forces that caused it) destroyed. To a large extent Sir Tony Blair is Starmer's Lord Cameron. This will not survive as an approach once they are in government imv.
Labor need to dispense with the failed neo con experiment and get back to Kensian economic polices to grow the economy.
I fear given the deficits we face it will need more than that if there is no early move to fully rejoin the EU, with all this would entail (which seems very unlikely). In the absence of such a resolve and concrete action to realise it, the alternative of a savage assault upon the winners of the last 30 years, through particularly very significantly increased property taxation (and perhaps even partial land nationalisation) will be seized upon as the only way to resource addressing the severe social deficiencies that are everywhere to be seen and which are crying out to be remedied. But of course that could open the way to a new Radical Right Party to reverse even a very large Labour majority at the election after next. British politics faces a serious risk of extremism on the Left as well as on the Right.@@therealrobertbirchall
@@JohnStevens-gp7ge of course England will never rejoin the EU untill the fag end of her Empire, the colonies of Scotland and Wales leave the British state.
There is something very emotional going on too. People are tired of the divisiveness of Brexit and there's no point beating a dead horse. People are war weary and must start to rebuild their lives. Politics has failed but there are children to feed and bread to be put on the table so people must get on with their lives.
I don't think Starmer is playing the long game in the sense that he intends to review his policy having gained power, he seems to me as straight a politician as possible and with a legal backbone. To my mind he is taking one careful step at a time. My thoughts are that if the UK can elect a strong coherent orderly Govt. which moves the narrative beyond the febrile maelstrom that is Brexit, enormous goodwill and potential will unfold. Then you are in a different place and new vistas open up. Yes I realise the economic fundamentals are horrid and need huge work but first lets change the sentiment. Thank you John & Brendan & TFT, your work is important.@@JohnStevens-gp7ge
Correct
Sunak has painted himself into a corner. He's simultaneously trying to claim he's a fresh start who doesn't have any connection to the last 13 years, while also trying to act like he's the natural heir to the politics of 13 years ago
Good luck resolving that one, Rishi!
It’s a vicious circle from which the Conservative Party may have no escape.
@@brendandonnelly1853where do you think small-c traditionalist conservatives will go, if Braverman and her wing take over on the right?
Are the LibDems a close enough fit to be a new home for the politically homeless, or will it require a new political project to rebuild something almost from scratch?
As a Party the Liberal Democrats tend to regard themselves as a centre-left rather than centre-right political organisation. A disastrous outcome for Sunak’s Conservative Party next year might open up space for a new centre-right formation in British politics.
@brendandonnelly1853 That's very interesting, as from the outside most people I know view them as centre right, especially if the framing is economic policy rather than identity politics. It's why I thought they might be a possible new home - they definitely reject Braverman-style identity politics, while being economically close to the increasingly rare moderate Tories
Again, very interesting to hear a different point of view here!
@@markwelch3564historically, the old Whig/Lib and Tory thing was less of the gulf than existed between, say, Attlee's Labour and Churchill's Conservatives. Perhaps we see things through the prism of those politics within living memory? The nearest to a 'seismic shift' during my own decades of disenchantment was the exodus of the 'Gang of Four' (SDP, initial 1981 iteration) during Foot's semi-successful opposition (and the only reason I remember that was my then MP was John Cartwright ..... "Who he?" I hear you cry. Well, precisely!!
Very good discussion, thank you.
I probably told you. Cameron started a neo nazty fart right section in the European Parliament called EFD and when Fartage came along the name changed to Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy. Cameron worked hard to get the UK out from the EU… with the help of the mister Farage or maybe Lord du Yousmellit?
Could I ask which are the other names that John would add to Suella’s as leading the move to the right?
Farage is the key figure. If he joins the Party and all potential successors to Sunak will be obliged by the membership to say they would allow him in, he will imv be unstoppable, if he wants it. But there is a divide between those who see the appropriate context for this "New Right"as being economically and culturally narrowly British/English, and those who believe in a broader Commonwealth/Anglosphere one. This divide has much to do with the Christian/traditional values component of the packaging that will be sought. But its principal practical effect will be, I believe, an increasing bias against minority candidates, such as Braverman/Badenoch/Cleverly (except as stop-gaps awaiting Farage) and is raising the position of, for example, Mordaunt and McVey, and current relative unknowns like Miriam Cates and Danny Kruger. But these (even Farage) are show ponies: the real leaders of this agenda are Sir Paul Marshall, and Lords Ashcroft and Cruddas.
@@JohnStevens-gp7ge Very interesting. Can I ask if Marshall, Cruddas and Ashcroft work together; and are they efficient in developing their strategy?
Not really, there are significant tensions. Marshall is by a long way the most sincere (both generally and as an evangelical Christian), serious and intelligent of the three imv and has the most coherent strategy both for delivering what he wants (GB News, Unherd, perhaps soon the Telegraph) and for framing an overall ideology of what he wants (eg Alliance for Responsible Citizenship). @@JerushaJane1
Oh dear, I was hoping for a reasonably well thought through analysis. Instead this is just a debate about how to save the Tories skin by ignoring the the real question, which is "What have the Tories been doing for the last thirteen years and what have they got to show for it?" Trying to engineer a "Get out of Jail Free" card for them?
Do me a favour!
I fear you have totally misunderstood the piece. The real question is how can we rejoin the EU, for without that, both the Conservatives and the Labour Party will be submerged by the new politics Brexit is bringing into being. Both Thatcherism and Blairism do not fit this harsher economic and ideological context. The disarray is hitting Sunak now. But once he is in government it will come for Starmer too.
Err.. the title of the article is "How Brexit Has changed British Politics Forever". Something they fail to explain in any detail before leaping forward to their exit strategy. What did I miss?
This whole series is about the problems of Brexit and how it should be reversed. You are clearly a newcomer. Brexit (and the forces that created it and which it expresses) has demolished traditional liberalism. The political balancing item of Conservative nationalism and Labour socialism which was created by Thatcher, modified by Blair and imitated by Cameron. Economic liberalism, through a rejection of the dominant role of international free trade in wealth creation, and the prioritising total over per capita GDP. And social and cultural liberalism through the advent of identity politics and a rejection of multiculturalism. This eclipse of liberalism has left the nationalist element in the Conservative tradition without restraint which is why Brexit is destroying traditional Conservatism. But liberalism (under Blair) restrained the Labour socialism. The change wrought in our politics by Brexit will ensure that Starmer cannot long survive in government on the agenda he is currently submitting to get elected in the GE. The logic is that whatever he says now, instead of accepting Brexit, he will have to reverse it. but that will require accommodating the drivers of de-globalisation in the economy and of identity politics in our society, not evading them.
@@JohnStevens-gp7geYou think I don't know all that? It's all well and good intellectualising in all in an esoteric debate but that's not going to cut the mustard with your average Joe on the street. If anyone asks me what I think is going on I'm hardly going to give them a link to "fedtrust" am I and expect them to wade through all that malarkey! Did they come up with a solution after all that debate?
BTW: I'm not new to this stuff at all. I've been following it for years including debates like this one. The bottom line is, what are we going to do about it rather than just talking about it?
The problems we are facing are largely due to the unpopular and increasingly dominant federalism and financial and self governing drain that the EU/EC has become.
It is the only way to go and believe me, not unpopular. We are going to a confederate Europe without changing cultures or whatsoever. I do not see a federal Europe coming up in the next decades.
So this is where Waldorf and Statler have been hiding all these years. “ What a bore fest, tiresome old twaddle, rubbish, nonsense, the same tired old lines trotted out again, although there were some good arguments, some salient points I suppose, it really wasn’t that bad, an entertaining twenty minutes, you could say rather good, very good, brilliant………..MORE!!!!!!!!!”
Every signal Brexiteer has the right to feel super "Outraged" they were betrayed beyond belief weather you like them or not (I am not one but they won the vote). The Pandemic obviously didn't help either.
Excuses excuses 😂😮
A little rain must fall in every man's life.
@richardwaters7770 I can see it certainly has in your life ..judging by your name !! 😊😊