Twitter thread - Vl... Go to my main channel / vladvexler You can now support Vlad's work on Patreon! / vladvexler Support Vlad via PayPal www.paypal.com...
Srsly imperialism is a relic of the distant past and needs to die. The Brits got punished for their imperialistic arrogance, now it's Russias turn. China next. The USA might or might not turn a corner. The middle east will probably implode eventually (hopefully) but that'll take a while.
Vlad you are the manifestation of a gentle soul. I could listen to your lectures all day and proceed to become a gentle soul like yourself. ❤From Scotland.
That is odd ... Me sitting down with a fresh cup of coffee, opening the front page of an online news site, seeing the headlines of the most recent events, and without having actually read a single word of these articles, thinking to myself ... "Hmm, I wonder what Vlad has to say about that?". You Sir have managed to leave quite the impression. Thank you for sharing your point of view on what is happening behind the scenes.
Things really escalated quickly. I watched this video 13 hours after it was published, and the mildly out-of-control situation looks more like some kind of rebellion. I still think your analysis is great, the situation just changes very quickly and there are a lot of things we can't see from Western Europe.
I'm impressed with how Vlad manages to keep the conversation respectful. I can't see myself calling a rat like Prigozhin "Mr.".I guess that's why Vlad is able to speak on such complex subjects with such a calm tone.
@@zetristan4525 Dr. Richard Wolff has always referred to The Donald as "Mister Trump" and never "President Trump" so it's not strictly a London affectation ;-)
Your last comment comparing Pregozhyn with Beria caught me by surprise. Beria was a serial sexual predator, especially of vulnerable young girls and women. He was also a superb predictor of Stalin's moods and desired and efficient in executing even horrendous crimes. It is disturb that a character such as Beria has a modern analogue.
The Russian ruling "elite" is a mafia gang just like in Hungary. In a mafia organization Beria-like figures always come up. I find the Beria - Hoover comparison as paralel characters (i.e. twin towers) very interesting.
Prigozhin The Realist: I was thinking of this myself over the last few days, as we have all wondered what the fate of Prigozhin, Putin and the war. What strikes me is that Prigozhin and his PMC Wanger is an appendage that is both a cancerous clump and a useful utility to Putin and Russia. That appendage has grown, not in mass so much, but rather in its incessant reminder that the subject is not well. Prigozhin has, using another metaphor, created a bubble outside of Russia itself, as he is indeed transcontinental, and now reflects back as the essence of Russian imperialism and hegemony just how much the Russian Army is incapable of winning this war. He proved that only mercenaries like his PMC Wagner group can win ground in Ukraine, humiliating Shoigu. But, it is this bubble outside of Russia that reflects back its most vicious desires to seize the resources of other nations and bring them to their knees with Russian power and cruelty -- that is the credentials Prigozhin has won for himself, as the motherland's most brutal general that will go to any lengths to steal the wealth of other nations: Diamond, Gold, Copper, Salt, Iron...doesn't matter, the PMC Wagner Group is now a transcontinental arms and minerals and metals dealer. Having untold wealth already inside and outside Russia, Progozhin is both a general and an oligarch, but one with both feet firmly inside and outside Russia. This gives him a voice that is unique, I just don't know how many Russians are listening to Prigozhin, versus Soloyev and the propaganda gang.
Bakhmut was captured before and then lost. Separatists were a mixture of putin’s green men including Wagners. The second capture was considered not a technical victory by the russian media because of high level of casualties, total leveling of the region and 0% population. He violated the idea of being a liberator in their eyes. Capture of Belgorod for fun by anti putin groups without any casualties damaged his victory even more. But yes, pmc’s always get the most dangerous missions. Blackwater took care of the pirates near Africa after armed forces from diff nations failed to achieve that. In short, there is nothing new about what wagner did.
Very interesting reflections on the abominable and metamorphic Mr. P. I think you are spot on about his function as a kind of ''safety valve'', diverting resentment and blame from pressing directly upon Putin. And your words on his desire for ''legitimation'' sturck a deep chord. Almost all people who use violence ( politically or simply criminally) - once they rise above a certain level of effectiveness/ ''success '' - have a very real need to meld into the establishment.
1. It's absolutely wonderful to have access, to come into the presence of intellectually more developed minds. This is the primary gift Vlad gives us. His recognition of Putin as trader - influence trader, and Putin's use of that strategy throughout his pst-soviet life, allows us to see the structure, and now flaws of that essentially organized criminal architecture governing Russia. Vlad has mentioned that Putin does not purge, but moves subordinates through other subordinates' agrement as it advances their own profit and status. This, in fact is what opened the way for Prigozhin's rise and international activities. (Prigozhinbought Utkin's Wagner. He also owns a piece of Convoy, the far smaller military/security company we see in Crimea - not attending to corporate accounting, i can give no information on that armed company. His profits arise from both mining interests and the violent control of such resources in African nations where Wagner's little green men were brought in by corrupt indigenous violent governors) 2. To fill in on tthe now accelerating Prigozhin events, Kyiv Post in English has several short pieces, including a youtube egnlish translation of much of Prigozhin' s Telegram diatribe, where he directly counters the FSB,K GRU and other Kremlin- based Maskirovka Machines. He claims Shoigu in Rostov-on-Don ordered a russian missile strike on Wagner base[s] in areas rear of the present battle lines. The FSB, a much more greatly mandated organization than FBI, for example, opened investigation into Prigozhin's near-direct attack on Putin's above governance style, and his departure from the disinformation norm to speak truth about the war being one of choice and attacking "fellow russians" of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. So, you can see that he is not a friend of Ukraine as only minorities of those oblasts desired separation from Ukraine. That info is available from decades now of polling. This is, as Vlad says, a battle of formalizations of power. Putin had long milked oligarchs as soon as he established FSB and other policing controls, way back in the 1990s, in St Pete. Yet, when observed through the structural lens, i repeat, that, like Japan's Yakuza gangs who developed in the power vacuum niche, they first in villages when the daimyo/emperor samurai feudal class breakdown developed by 200 years ago, the Silovik control period came due to soviet collapse, absent dissolution of KGB and other internal & external counterintel and policing agencies. In fact Rosgvardia ( oddly, it shares border and internal mandate with FSB) was put into place to be directly under Putin's command, by the legislature. This is also separate from MoD, and its GRU (which you will note, allied with Prigozhin's astute Agentstvo Internet Issledovanii - a well- funded troll group targeting the crazed "share-too-much" facebook and twitter and related social bubble phenomena of the US, intellectually ridiculously into by most of Europe's population. So, Prigozhin, with his own organized profitable criminal background ( he also ran prostitution ring and thus his venture into advertising Wagner recruitment via porn sites is NOT AT ALL an oddity. He is a violent entrepreneur with functional management skills, and clear strategic skills. A couple days ago when i mentioned Shoigu as blustering at last to counter Prigozhin, i was mistaken. It was not bluster to unleash missiles to attempt to eliminate Wagner force generativity. Gerasimov is the true war college military mind, and though shoigu is chief quartermaster of all, those two are surely MoD and we can infer the russian military effort was thoroughly compromised through this dispute. At least Prigozhin has some regard for his known cold killer pros, and even his cognitive "brothers" among the prison recruits. We ALL develop neural/hormonal love substrates for our familiars, and it is heartening for someone who has encountered horrible wealthy psychopaths and their eager followers right here, to see that even the most inimical and violent still share some basic evolved prosociality, if it be only as ephemeral as the black scorpion groups i once uncovered mating and sharing space ( i cannot say that much for the billionaire and entourage that destroyed both young dreams and refined artists here in a region of the US). Our social primate sociality is not more admirable or advanced than many of the far less intraspecifically lethal creatures i've met since early childhood, so anthropocentric delusionals might cease to regard even fellows in professional killing and torture companies, as morally inferior. Hobbes WAS wrong, at the deepest evolutionary level. He, like ourselves, merely objected to our worst, without intimate access to mitigating qualities, however transient and ephemeral they be in each of our lives. Prigozhin is not really acting. This is he, human, if flawed. Our brains, if we use them as they are shaped by hundreds and thousands of millennia, to learn social contextuality to apply lessons gained from others, however foreign or atrocious they may at first seem, to OURSELVES. There is much more for EACH of us to learn, and we are EACH more in need of learning than we know. As the apocryphal tale of Socrates and the young man who asked for wisdom goes: Soc gestured to the youth to come to the pool, then held the flailing youth under water, finally loosening his grip, saying " when you need wisdom as you need air, you MAY find it."
Vlad, I have a couple of books on the chaos theory. Once chaos is unleashed, the number of variables make predictions difficult as they tend to increase exponentially.
Dont forget Shoigu put an ultimatum on Prigo "Surrender your troops till July 1st". I was actually expecting something like this to happen soon. Giving up his troops would most likely be a death warrant for Prigo. In a rebellion he has at least some chance of survival. As most of the russian army is busy in Ukraine, he might be able to strike a Moskau before they can be recalled. If he really has 25000 equipped and ready soldiers at hand, such a "Musarenstück" might actually be possible. Its a long shot, but we will see. Also Prigos "its all the bad ministers fault!" is the typical reason given by rebells within a monarchical system. It was the same line when Isabella and Mortimer raised a rebellion against Edward II and so many more. Just check history. The rebells always state themselves as the rightful protectors of the decieved king and "only" want to fight the evil ministers and favorites. In a monarchical system, as a rebel, you do not question the right of the king, because once you are king, you dont want others to question your authority either.....
Now Prigo has saved his head by going to Belarus. And may half of his men were taken by the MoD. So he succeed. But this shows that Putin doesn't get the info he needs to keep the stuff together it's to see if the Putin administration is able to learn from their mistakes or if they go the same way open opportunity for the west to weaken it further. Although weakening could have the effect that someone in RU is pressing the red button. The art is to end this conflict without the use of nukes both sides engaged in grave mistakes who led to the situation. The thing will only get more complex due other world events which are at the plan.
Actually, this one I think we all have predicted. To be honest, I did not think Kremlin would bother with a mock trial since I have waited for the news about "Mr" Prigozhin falling accidentally out of a window for months now.
Allegedly the Wagnerites still in Bakhmut are attacking RuAF troops. They claim the MoD attacked a Wagner camp with artillery. Appatently the FSB has opened a case against Prigozhin for calling an armed rebellion. It looks like it may get very messy.
@@lornamorgan3575 Putin has been advised of the situation and orders have been given to shut down Wagner offices in St. Petersburg and fighting has broken out in Moscow and Moscow has been turned into some kind of fortress. Bakhmut and other various locations on the russian front line in Ukraine has Wagner and Russian army fighting together against the Russian loyalists. It doesn't matter who is or will be in charge of Russia at this moment. Don't let russian propaganda frighten you of change. It's a win win situation for now for Ukraine.
I so love how you suggested to see this as we're having a coffee together... Thanks, I needed that! I'm going to make my cup as I'm listening to you. And thank you for providing a different lens on things... I may sometimes not be entirely persuaded, but your perspective has been generally quite enriching.
I'm a military guy myself. My thought process is largely dictated the concept of power. I really like your take on things because they help me temper my views of the aforementioned parties BUT... power is still power. I just don't know. I have seen lots of stuff about Swan Lake in the last couple of days and I don't buy it but I keep thinking about nevzorov and that speech he made in 2020(ish). Everything he said has come true but he didn't take in to account Wagner. That is kind of an unforseen outlier that Putin weirdly enabled. It just feels to me like nothing is as cut and dried as anyone makes it seem be it from a philosophical angle or an operational/strategic one. We are somewhere in the middle. Your channel is really good for me because it helps to pull me back in to a space where I realise that actually we don't have a f*cking clue what's happening.
Can I do all this, and not get a crown? Tut, were it farther off, I’ll pluck it down. Henry VI, Part III, Act III, Scene 2 Olivier added part of this speech to the “Winter of our discontent” speech in Richard III.
Putler is akin to the captain of the Titanic. He was probably warned about the dangers of "icebergs" ahead, but most likely ignored the warnings and now it is what it is. i.e. a sinking ship.
I'm Russian, and we all are just completely at a loss regarding Prigozhin's actions. Even though his "revolutionary might" has only been manifested in Telegram channels thus far, it seems to have been taken seriously in Moscow. Just wtf is happening
It is a bit exciting. I'm not getting my hopes up, but these could be the first signs of the disintegration of the authoritarian Putin regime. If Wagner and the Ministry of Defence do fight, it would be the perfect time for the Ukrainians and the Russian insurrectionists to strike. Perhaps this nightmarish war can be ended sooner rather than later. I doubt it will turn out that way, but there is a chance the Russian forces will implode because of this internal division.
I did watch that interview with Mark G on Times, and I got the inference that he's quite willing to "reward" Russia using negotiating. It wasn't explicit, but it was an underlying current. My immediate reaction was to curse, vehemently, and wonder if Mark has misread, perhaps misstated, or is just willing to give up on the Ukrainian military forces and go for appeasement. As for Prigozhin etc al, I am trying to avoid the incessant "drama" in the political realms. It's stress inducing, puts the reality of war, death, destruction, and culture wars before living in a healthy, same, perhaps boring world. I am far more focused on the civilians, military forces in Ukraine. They're losing far too many lives, homes, children because of someone's pique about regime, twisted history and ego.
Mark Galleoti does not have an allegiance to Ukraine. Neither does he have an allegiance to Russia. If you object to his words, it is not a moral crime, it is a difference of opinion. If you feel otherwise, perhaps it would be useful to question your own bias, as well as his.
Galleoti is an analyst/observer more than an Ukraine advocate and I disagree that he is for appeasement. He's just observing what very well may be true: that The West may grow weary/ skeptical of supporting Ukraine eventually and try to force Ukraine to "negotiate." This is a possibility we must all consider and try to fight against. I think, however, it's pretty clear that he understands the threat Putin/Kremlin poses and supports the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Mark Galleoti has been legally banned from entering Russia since about the second month of the full scale invasion, if you think he's favoring Russia over Ukraine, you are unfamiliar with his body of research and understanding of the putin regime. The man isn't some random talking head, and would chuckle at the accusation that he's favoring the same government that banned him from going to the country he's been studying for 30 years. I'll watch the video and see how his statements might come across, but i would bet my life on the fact that he's not suggesting to sell out Ukraine. Also it's true he doesn't have an allegiance to either Russia or Ukraine, but he also probably doesn't have a good relationship with the government that banned him. I've used Mark as a source for disinformation research for at least 5 years now, he's literally the one that opened my eyes to understanding Russian disinformation campaigns in college, he's mandatory reading material if you want to understand Russian hybrid Warfare tactics and strategies involved with disinformation campaigns. He isn't EXPLICITLY pro Ukraine, but implicitly he very much wants the Russian military effort to fail, however he doesn't let this desire get in the way of his analysis. Lastly, i think you're a little too quick to assume his implications and intentions. He never really gets into pushing for one solution or another, he tends to focus on understanding and describing systems, situations, hypotheticals etc, but never really tries to push policy change beyond just highlighting and describing concerns that likely need to be acknowledged and addressed. I'll try to come back in a few hours once I actually watch the interview.
I think the point Galeotti made is that in the longer term an unstable Russia on the border will always be a threat to Ukraine, a peaceful and stable one that accepts Ukraine’s right to exist will not. He was definitely talking long term.
It's more than than mildly out of control. Even Girkin just a few days ago said that Putin himself is out of touch and cannot win this war. He said that Russia has lost. Girkin, up until recently was still very pro Putin and pro Special Military Operation. Now even he admits that Russia has lost the initiative and cannot ever launch any real offenses anymore. It's just a slow bled out retreat until Russia ultimately loses.
@@arisnotheles OK thanks, I thought you were referring to something you saw now. Yes saw a lot of Girkin in the past speaking this way. I find him quite fascinating (evil obviously, but they all are).
@@happydays4302 Terrific thanks! Will check it. For anyone else interested that's a typo above, it's jake broe. we have no idea how much money he has :)
I keep hearing people getting anxious regarding the question of a potential successor to Putin, and whether that successor might be “worse”. I accept that the possibility exists, but suggest that anyone coming to power as a consequence of a failed war of aggression, is less likely to engage in another such war because he has before him the object lesson . “What happens if I start a war and lose?” Anxious people also need to face the fact that Putin is not immortal. That he will inevitably be succeeded and we will need to deal with whoever that is.
While that wouldn't be bad, the most toxic or at least dangerous culture is further east and to the south - in the isolated country called China which, unlike Russia, is actual totalitarian regime with tens or even hundreds of millions of ideologically charged people willing to kill, lose and live for the sake of deranged grand idea. If a few million imperial Russians are able to do this, what will Chinese state lead to..?
So not a Caesar, ready to match on Rome, but a Marius? I can kind of see it, he too made a lot of noise but ultimately faded in exile while Sulla led a brutal counter revolution. God help Russia if they have a Sulla in the wings.
Oh man, are we going to have a main channel video still? Or is it irrelevant now that the situation has de-escalated and he’s on his way to his exile in Belarus?
I didn't see this "formalizing his power", before, but it seems plausible, I would say that Prigozhin is a man of Warrior Honor in that he told Ukranians to leave Bakhmut so as to avoid a needless slaughter, yes it's self serving but true as well. Prigozhin is sending a simultaneous message to the west, essentially saying, Russia should not have done this from taking Crimea, to the current war, in other words " hey CIA, there is room for negotiation here, you play with me and we can talk", he is also telling the Russian people, 'Justice', as in all these oligarchs have their boots on your necks, I understand your plight I'm one of you, do not fight me we are one, I will be your voice, your hammer. Smart man. He has a bad hand at this point and he knows he isn't going to hang , shoot himself and then fall out a window after just suffering a mysterious heart attack. What I would like to know is where Putin has him at, does he fear Prigozhin or not. Is Prigozhin a tiger Putin got on, and now doesn't know how to get off of ?
Head of state should never ever get close to mercenary groups. It ends badly. Prigo has his own assassins and surveillance program in Wagner. Then there is his troll factory that can damage putin’s reputation if needed. Russia has a long tradition of using chefs to poison/kill people. Here Prigo is a caterer for schools and all.
I believe that he’s a key part of their Maskirovska. Give those that are not on side with the main party message an alternative that they can flock to and then slowly subvert that message over time to represent the main stream. PayOps 101.
Prigozhin just called for a "march" against Shoigu's MOD. He's still careful to avoid criticizing Putin, but this is starting to get insane nonetheless. Was this most recent development already included in your analysis? If not, does it change your analysis? Is a Russian civil war about to begin?
More recent events suggest matters are getting more seriously out of control for Moscow. Hopefully the Ukrainian couter offensive will make good use of the unfolding chaos.
What about Prigozhin saying Donbass wasn't attacked and NATO wouldn't attack Russia? It would give Putin a way out (we were lied to/incompetence Shoigu/Gerasimov) and Prigozhin a way into becoming Minister of Defense...(but falling out of a window not too much time after, Putin won't have heroes next to him on the throne).
I get the feeling that it is only a matter of time before Wager joins forces with Ukraine. They are mercenaries, and learning that they have been lied too.
I like your analysis a lot. I think he's very clever as he opens the way to a new out to Russia. He kind of shields Putin here by attacking the military leadership but budges in with a distinct populist message. He's definitely making a play for some step of power into the future. It's all very clever and the kind of unexpected event Putin can play off of well.
I'd disagree only with the last part. I think he has those desires now, he's just not acting on them overtly right now. It's a lot of theater directed at Shoigu, the man that will be used as the "top" fall guy (no pun intended). But I think he currently sees an avenue for himself to take Putin's place.
Russian history in five words: "And then things got worse."
Srsly imperialism is a relic of the distant past and needs to die. The Brits got punished for their imperialistic arrogance, now it's Russias turn. China next. The USA might or might not turn a corner. The middle east will probably implode eventually (hopefully) but that'll take a while.
But, Russia is still here, after hundreds of years. A paradox.
As always.
@@DieFlabbergastThings change in time. :)
😂
As a ballet fan, I for one am looking forward to another opportunity to see a vintage recording of a performance of 'Swan Lake' on TV.
A man of culture, I see...
Mmh, yes I hope it will be televised.
The colonel updates the situation.
ua-cam.com/video/UB_j0vb6iXc/v-deo.html
@@Seraphus87Yes! But Live, without kremlin filtration.
LOL
Vlad you are the manifestation of a gentle soul. I could listen to your lectures all day and proceed to become a gentle soul like yourself. ❤From Scotland.
from Canada 🍁 💖
@@dianesaenger9412 The man takes the thorn out of my paw.
At times I can be a cranky, argumentative old goat. I aspire to be like Vlad!
Naaaw!
That is odd ... Me sitting down with a fresh cup of coffee, opening the front page of an online news site, seeing the headlines of the most recent events, and without having actually read a single word of these articles, thinking to myself ... "Hmm, I wonder what Vlad has to say about that?".
You Sir have managed to leave quite the impression. Thank you for sharing your point of view on what is happening behind the scenes.
The death of Stalin. A movie which on the surface is absurd, but it isn't actually a parody of soviet politics.
“The room is only 75 percent conscious!”
great movie----the one russian i know was very butthurt by the movie.
"What the heck is now going on over there? Oh, great - There is already something by Vlad" - Thank you for your wonderful Videos!
You're a breath of fresh air, Vlad.
LOVE YOU. 🟦🟨
The colonel updates the situation.
ua-cam.com/video/UB_j0vb6iXc/v-deo.html
It's absurd how fast takes can get outdated in this war
Its always nice to be let into your home and hear your thoughts, appreciate your energy and thoughts
The colonel updates the situation.
ua-cam.com/video/UB_j0vb6iXc/v-deo.html
Things really escalated quickly. I watched this video 13 hours after it was published, and the mildly out-of-control situation looks more like some kind of rebellion.
I still think your analysis is great, the situation just changes very quickly and there are a lot of things we can't see from Western Europe.
Aaand now it's over.
Prigo was paid silent or something.
Love your stuff Vlad. Wishin you the best!
I'm impressed with how Vlad manages to keep the conversation respectful. I can't see myself calling a rat like Prigozhin "Mr.".I guess that's why Vlad is able to speak on such complex subjects with such a calm tone.
it's a little bit tongue-in-cheek, I think---a way of being polite but not deferential
Well as soon as I call someone "Mr." people who know me know there is danger ahead :)
Its in the tradition of "Mr. Hitler" .... which also immediately negates any and all titles those 'people' deem themselves to hold.
Because his English is always elegant.🇬🇧
@@zetristan4525 Dr. Richard Wolff has always referred to The Donald as "Mister Trump" and never "President Trump" so it's not strictly a London affectation ;-)
Your last comment comparing Pregozhyn with Beria caught me by surprise. Beria was a serial sexual predator, especially of vulnerable young girls and women. He was also a superb predictor of Stalin's moods and desired and efficient in executing even horrendous crimes. It is disturb that a character such as Beria has a modern analogue.
As if that was the worst thing about Beria. Hoover wasn't evil because he was a cross dresser. He was evil because he destroyed lives.
The a*** hole soloviov was saying Beria was a good guy! We need to get rid of these people!!
Indeed....
The Russian ruling "elite" is a mafia gang just like in Hungary. In a mafia organization Beria-like figures always come up.
I find the Beria - Hoover comparison as paralel characters (i.e. twin towers) very interesting.
Prigozhin The Realist: I was thinking of this myself over the last few days, as we have all wondered what the fate of Prigozhin, Putin and the war. What strikes me is that Prigozhin and his PMC Wanger is an appendage that is both a cancerous clump and a useful utility to Putin and Russia. That appendage has grown, not in mass so much, but rather in its incessant reminder that the subject is not well.
Prigozhin has, using another metaphor, created a bubble outside of Russia itself, as he is indeed transcontinental, and now reflects back as the essence of Russian imperialism and hegemony just how much the Russian Army is incapable of winning this war. He proved that only mercenaries like his PMC Wagner group can win ground in Ukraine, humiliating Shoigu.
But, it is this bubble outside of Russia that reflects back its most vicious desires to seize the resources of other nations and bring them to their knees with Russian power and cruelty -- that is the credentials Prigozhin has won for himself, as the motherland's most brutal general that will go to any lengths to steal the wealth of other nations: Diamond, Gold, Copper, Salt, Iron...doesn't matter, the PMC Wagner Group is now a transcontinental arms and minerals and metals dealer. Having untold wealth already inside and outside Russia, Progozhin is both a general and an oligarch, but one with both feet firmly inside and outside Russia. This gives him a voice that is unique, I just don't know how many Russians are listening to Prigozhin, versus Soloyev and the propaganda gang.
It will be declared by Putin that Pregohzin has fallen under the influence of western plotters
Call a spade a spade. Wagner is a terrorist organization. A very successful and heavily armed one
Bakhmut was captured before and then lost. Separatists were a mixture of putin’s green men including Wagners. The second capture was considered not a technical victory by the russian media because of high level of casualties, total leveling of the region and 0% population. He violated the idea of being a liberator in their eyes. Capture of Belgorod for fun by anti putin groups without any casualties damaged his victory even more. But yes, pmc’s always get the most dangerous missions. Blackwater took care of the pirates near Africa after armed forces from diff nations failed to achieve that. In short, there is nothing new about what wagner did.
Very interesting reflections on the abominable and metamorphic Mr. P. I think you are spot on about his function as a kind of ''safety valve'', diverting resentment and blame from pressing directly upon Putin. And your words on his desire for ''legitimation'' sturck a deep chord. Almost all people who use violence ( politically or simply criminally) - once they rise above a certain level of effectiveness/ ''success '' - have a very real need to meld into the establishment.
1. It's absolutely wonderful to have access, to come into the presence of intellectually more developed minds. This is the primary gift Vlad gives us.
His recognition of Putin as trader - influence trader, and Putin's use of that strategy throughout his pst-soviet life, allows us to see the structure, and now flaws of that essentially organized criminal architecture governing Russia.
Vlad has mentioned that Putin does not purge, but moves subordinates through other subordinates' agrement as it advances their own profit and status. This, in fact is what opened the way for Prigozhin's rise and international activities. (Prigozhinbought Utkin's Wagner. He also owns a piece of Convoy, the far smaller military/security company we see in Crimea - not attending to corporate accounting, i can give no information on that armed company. His profits arise from both mining interests and the violent control of such resources in African nations where Wagner's little green men were brought in by corrupt indigenous violent governors)
2. To fill in on tthe now accelerating Prigozhin events, Kyiv Post in English has several short pieces, including a youtube egnlish translation of much of Prigozhin' s Telegram diatribe, where he directly counters the FSB,K GRU and other Kremlin- based Maskirovka Machines.
He claims Shoigu in Rostov-on-Don ordered a russian missile strike on Wagner base[s] in areas rear of the present battle lines.
The FSB, a much more greatly mandated organization than FBI, for example, opened investigation into Prigozhin's near-direct attack on Putin's above governance style, and his departure from the disinformation norm to speak truth about the war being one of choice and attacking "fellow russians" of Donetsk and
Luhansk oblasts.
So, you can see that he is not a friend of Ukraine as only minorities of those oblasts desired separation from Ukraine. That info is available from decades now of polling.
This is, as Vlad says, a battle of formalizations of power. Putin had long milked oligarchs as soon as he established FSB and other policing controls, way back in the 1990s, in St Pete.
Yet, when observed through the structural lens, i repeat, that, like Japan's Yakuza gangs who developed in the power vacuum niche, they first in villages when the daimyo/emperor samurai feudal class breakdown developed by 200 years ago, the Silovik control period came due to soviet collapse, absent dissolution of KGB and other internal & external counterintel and policing agencies.
In fact Rosgvardia ( oddly, it shares border and internal mandate with FSB) was put into place to be directly under Putin's command, by the legislature. This is also separate from MoD, and its GRU
(which you will note, allied with
Prigozhin's astute Agentstvo Internet Issledovanii - a well- funded troll group targeting the crazed "share-too-much" facebook and twitter and related social bubble phenomena of the US, intellectually ridiculously into by most of Europe's population.
So, Prigozhin, with his own organized profitable criminal background ( he also ran prostitution ring and thus his venture into advertising Wagner recruitment via porn sites is NOT AT ALL an oddity. He is a violent entrepreneur with functional management skills, and clear strategic skills.
A couple days ago when i mentioned Shoigu as blustering at last to counter Prigozhin, i was mistaken. It was not bluster to unleash missiles to attempt to eliminate Wagner force generativity.
Gerasimov is the true war college military mind, and though shoigu is chief quartermaster of all, those two are surely MoD and we can infer the russian military effort was thoroughly compromised through this dispute.
At least Prigozhin has some regard for his known cold killer pros, and even his cognitive "brothers" among the prison recruits.
We ALL develop neural/hormonal love substrates for our familiars, and it is heartening for someone who has encountered horrible wealthy psychopaths and their eager followers right here, to see that even the most inimical and violent still share some basic evolved prosociality, if it be only as ephemeral as the black scorpion groups i once uncovered mating and sharing space ( i cannot say that much for the billionaire and entourage that destroyed both young dreams and refined artists here in a region of the US).
Our social primate sociality is not more admirable or advanced than many of the far less intraspecifically lethal creatures i've met since early childhood, so anthropocentric delusionals might cease to regard even fellows in professional killing and torture companies, as morally inferior.
Hobbes WAS wrong, at the deepest evolutionary level.
He, like ourselves, merely objected to our worst, without intimate access to mitigating qualities, however transient and ephemeral they be in each of our lives.
Prigozhin is not really acting. This is he, human, if flawed.
Our brains, if we use them as they are shaped by hundreds and thousands of millennia, to learn social contextuality to apply lessons gained from others, however foreign or atrocious they may at first seem, to OURSELVES.
There is much more for EACH of us to learn, and we are EACH more in need of learning than we know. As the apocryphal tale of Socrates and the young man who asked for wisdom goes: Soc gestured to the youth to come to the pool, then held the flailing youth under water, finally loosening his grip, saying " when you need wisdom as you need air, you MAY find it."
Vlad, I have a couple of books on the chaos theory. Once chaos is unleashed, the number of variables make predictions difficult as they tend to increase exponentially.
Dont forget Shoigu put an ultimatum on Prigo "Surrender your troops till July 1st". I was actually expecting something like this to happen soon. Giving up his troops would most likely be a death warrant for Prigo. In a rebellion he has at least some chance of survival. As most of the russian army is busy in Ukraine, he might be able to strike a Moskau before they can be recalled. If he really has 25000 equipped and ready soldiers at hand, such a "Musarenstück" might actually be possible. Its a long shot, but we will see.
Also Prigos "its all the bad ministers fault!" is the typical reason given by rebells within a monarchical system. It was the same line when Isabella and Mortimer raised a rebellion against Edward II and so many more. Just check history. The rebells always state themselves as the rightful protectors of the decieved king and "only" want to fight the evil ministers and favorites. In a monarchical system, as a rebel, you do not question the right of the king, because once you are king, you dont want others to question your authority either.....
Now Prigo has saved his head by going to Belarus. And may half of his men were taken by the MoD. So he succeed. But this shows that Putin doesn't get the info he needs to keep the stuff together it's to see if the Putin administration is able to learn from their mistakes or if they go the same way open opportunity for the west to weaken it further. Although weakening could have the effect that someone in RU is pressing the red button. The art is to end this conflict without the use of nukes both sides engaged in grave mistakes who led to the situation. The thing will only get more complex due other world events which are at the plan.
At the moment you posted the video, FSB opened a criminal case against Prigozhin, so the escalation is ongoing.
Actually, this one I think we all have predicted. To be honest, I did not think Kremlin would bother with a mock trial since I have waited for the news about "Mr" Prigozhin falling accidentally out of a window for months now.
Putin controls both, wait and see......
Allegedly the Wagnerites still in Bakhmut are attacking RuAF troops.
They claim the MoD attacked a Wagner camp with artillery.
Appatently the FSB has opened a case against Prigozhin for calling an armed rebellion.
It looks like it may get very messy.
It "appears" that the Russian army has hit a Wagner HQ with missiles of some sort in Russia itself. We'll soon know if this 4eport is true or not.
@blacklion8208 I'm not sure if this is good or bad. I really don't trust Prigozhin.
Feels like it's about MoD not Putin.
@@lornamorgan3575 Putin has been advised of the situation and orders have been given to shut down Wagner offices in St. Petersburg and fighting has broken out in Moscow and Moscow has been turned into some kind of fortress. Bakhmut and other various locations on the russian front line in Ukraine has Wagner and Russian army fighting together against the Russian loyalists.
It doesn't matter who is or will be in charge of Russia at this moment. Don't let russian propaganda frighten you of change. It's a win win situation for now for Ukraine.
Whoever loses....we win.
I watched this last night, and I watched it again this morning. How quickly the world turns...
Thanks for the reality check!
Always lovely to watch your updates and be reminded of some fundamentals at the same time as hearing nuanced arguments - bravo and keep good health!
I so love how you suggested to see this as we're having a coffee together... Thanks, I needed that! I'm going to make my cup as I'm listening to you. And thank you for providing a different lens on things... I may sometimes not be entirely persuaded, but your perspective has been generally quite enriching.
I'm a military guy myself. My thought process is largely dictated the concept of power. I really like your take on things because they help me temper my views of the aforementioned parties BUT... power is still power. I just don't know. I have seen lots of stuff about Swan Lake in the last couple of days and I don't buy it but I keep thinking about nevzorov and that speech he made in 2020(ish). Everything he said has come true but he didn't take in to account Wagner. That is kind of an unforseen outlier that Putin weirdly enabled. It just feels to me like nothing is as cut and dried as anyone makes it seem be it from a philosophical angle or an operational/strategic one. We are somewhere in the middle. Your channel is really good for me because it helps to pull me back in to a space where I realise that actually we don't have a f*cking clue what's happening.
Thanks, as always your analysis is very helpful! Have a lovely day :)
I am so glad to be able to turn to you for actual insight.
I'm watching this vid minutes after he started his crusade with 25k his mercenaries.... lol
What a timing
Its a pleasure to listen to you, thanks for your incite.
Thanks for putting air into this breathless story.
Thank you!
The situation is escalating fast, and it's fascinating to watch. Thank you for your perceptions, Vlad. Your perspective is unique, and so needed! 💚🌺
Can I do all this, and not get a crown?
Tut, were it farther off, I’ll pluck it down.
Henry VI, Part III, Act III, Scene 2
Olivier added part of this speech to the “Winter of our discontent” speech in Richard III.
Thank you Vlad for these provisional clarifications and interesting hypotheses.
Putler is akin to the captain of the Titanic. He was probably warned about the dangers of "icebergs" ahead, but most likely ignored the warnings and now it is what it is. i.e. a sinking ship.
Thank you for the analysis sir
Thanks!
Thanks Vlad!
I'm Russian, and we all are just completely at a loss regarding Prigozhin's actions. Even though his "revolutionary might" has only been manifested in Telegram channels thus far, it seems to have been taken seriously in Moscow.
Just wtf is happening
Your rotten government is starting to implode upon itself. That's what's happening.
It might be some weird psyop for increased control by the gouvernement. Don't think there was a strike on Wagner and Wagner won't attack Russia.
I think Mr. Vexler is taking Mr P's actions too lightly.
It is a bit exciting. I'm not getting my hopes up, but these could be the first signs of the disintegration of the authoritarian Putin regime. If Wagner and the Ministry of Defence do fight, it would be the perfect time for the Ukrainians and the Russian insurrectionists to strike. Perhaps this nightmarish war can be ended sooner rather than later. I doubt it will turn out that way, but there is a chance the Russian forces will implode because of this internal division.
@@patrickclark9156Nooo.. rather "mildly". 😂😂
Vlad is awesome.
Are serious philosophers allowed to say "big ups to ..."? Thanks, Vlad - timely as usual.
I think Epictetus used the phrase "big ups to"
@@Andygb78 That rascal!
I did watch that interview with Mark G on Times, and I got the inference that he's quite willing to "reward" Russia using negotiating. It wasn't explicit, but it was an underlying current.
My immediate reaction was to curse, vehemently, and wonder if Mark has misread, perhaps misstated, or is just willing to give up on the Ukrainian military forces and go for appeasement.
As for Prigozhin etc al, I am trying to avoid the incessant "drama" in the political realms. It's stress inducing, puts the reality of war, death, destruction, and culture wars before living in a healthy, same, perhaps boring world.
I am far more focused on the civilians, military forces in Ukraine. They're losing far too many lives, homes, children because of someone's pique about regime, twisted history and ego.
Mark Galleoti does not have an allegiance to Ukraine. Neither does he have an allegiance to Russia. If you object to his words, it is not a moral crime, it is a difference of opinion. If you feel otherwise, perhaps it would be useful to question your own bias, as well as his.
Galleoti is an analyst/observer more than an Ukraine advocate and I disagree that he is for appeasement. He's just observing what very well may be true: that The West may grow weary/ skeptical of supporting Ukraine eventually and try to force Ukraine to "negotiate." This is a possibility we must all consider and try to fight against.
I think, however, it's pretty clear that he understands the threat Putin/Kremlin poses and supports the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Mark Galleoti has been legally banned from entering Russia since about the second month of the full scale invasion, if you think he's favoring Russia over Ukraine, you are unfamiliar with his body of research and understanding of the putin regime. The man isn't some random talking head, and would chuckle at the accusation that he's favoring the same government that banned him from going to the country he's been studying for 30 years. I'll watch the video and see how his statements might come across, but i would bet my life on the fact that he's not suggesting to sell out Ukraine. Also it's true he doesn't have an allegiance to either Russia or Ukraine, but he also probably doesn't have a good relationship with the government that banned him. I've used Mark as a source for disinformation research for at least 5 years now, he's literally the one that opened my eyes to understanding Russian disinformation campaigns in college, he's mandatory reading material if you want to understand Russian hybrid Warfare tactics and strategies involved with disinformation campaigns. He isn't EXPLICITLY pro Ukraine, but implicitly he very much wants the Russian military effort to fail, however he doesn't let this desire get in the way of his analysis.
Lastly, i think you're a little too quick to assume his implications and intentions. He never really gets into pushing for one solution or another, he tends to focus on understanding and describing systems, situations, hypotheticals etc, but never really tries to push policy change beyond just highlighting and describing concerns that likely need to be acknowledged and addressed.
I'll try to come back in a few hours once I actually watch the interview.
I think the point Galeotti made is that in the longer term an unstable Russia on the border will always be a threat to Ukraine, a peaceful and stable one that accepts Ukraine’s right to exist will not. He was definitely talking long term.
But are you surprised ?
Just close your eyes for a moment and think the war is over
Is there a big winner ?
Yes CHINA
It's more than than mildly out of control. Even Girkin just a few days ago said that Putin himself is out of touch and cannot win this war. He said that Russia has lost. Girkin, up until recently was still very pro Putin and pro Special Military Operation. Now even he admits that Russia has lost the initiative and cannot ever launch any real offenses anymore. It's just a slow bled out retreat until Russia ultimately loses.
Oh, would love to see this, do you recall where you saw it? thx.
@@arisnotheles OK thanks, I thought you were referring to something you saw now. Yes saw a lot of Girkin in the past speaking this way. I find him quite fascinating (evil obviously, but they all are).
@@letXeqXjake broke had a clip of it in his last video I think and he has links for all his clips in description
@@happydays4302 Terrific thanks! Will check it. For anyone else interested that's a typo above, it's jake broe. we have no idea how much money he has :)
Saaaad Ghirkin😂
Seems like things were maybe more out of control than we thought...
Prigozhin refused to sign contract with Russian MoD. And Putin couldn't do anything about it... :)
I keep hearing people getting anxious regarding the question of a potential successor to Putin, and whether that successor might be “worse”.
I accept that the possibility exists, but suggest that anyone coming to power as a consequence of a failed war of aggression, is less likely to engage in another such war because he has before him the object lesson . “What happens if I start a war and lose?”
Anxious people also need to face the fact that Putin is not immortal. That he will inevitably be succeeded and we will need to deal with whoever that is.
This video rapidly aged well after the drama of the past 24 hours.
Thanks Vlad, hoping you are well.
In response to the title, “…..lose everything…and do the world a favor by collapsing this most toxic of cultures.”
Ceterum censeo Russia-Imperia esse delendam, the sooner the better.
While that wouldn't be bad, the most toxic or at least dangerous culture is further east and to the south - in the isolated country called China which, unlike Russia, is actual totalitarian regime with tens or even hundreds of millions of ideologically charged people willing to kill, lose and live for the sake of deranged grand idea. If a few million imperial Russians are able to do this, what will Chinese state lead to..?
A useful term here could be "controlled opposition". Thanks for elevating the discussions surrounding these events. 🙏
Excellent analysis. Thank you
Hey Vlad, musician here! I see the keyboard behind you - do you play? :D
I do enjoy your chats!
Vlad, I seem to recall seeing posters of Prighorzin starting a campaign to run for some political office.
Is this correct?
4:20 "He gathers up resentment about the State corruption"
He is being part of that corruption machine for years ...
Vlad we need an update, Twitter's going mad right now!
Putin needed an off-ramp. I give you Prigozin
So not a Caesar, ready to match on Rome, but a Marius? I can kind of see it, he too made a lot of noise but ultimately faded in exile while Sulla led a brutal counter revolution.
God help Russia if they have a Sulla in the wings.
They do , 😂😂😂
one of your finest, vlad.
The best news today from the front since the damn war started!
Oh man, are we going to have a main channel video still? Or is it irrelevant now that the situation has de-escalated and he’s on his way to his exile in Belarus?
Just found your channel; I'm learning from it. Your accent I find very pleasant.
Great insight. Thanks for sharing
Great Vlad - the drunks are taking over the brewery! Hic!
Looking from the future that was a perfectly accurate assesment
Great to listen
I didn't see this "formalizing his power", before, but it seems plausible, I would say that Prigozhin is a man of Warrior Honor in that he told Ukranians to leave Bakhmut so as to avoid a needless slaughter, yes it's self serving but true as well. Prigozhin is sending a simultaneous message to the west, essentially saying, Russia should not have done this from taking Crimea, to the current war, in other words " hey CIA, there is room for negotiation here, you play with me and we can talk", he is also telling the Russian people, 'Justice', as in all these oligarchs have their boots on your necks, I understand your plight I'm one of you, do not fight me we are one, I will be your voice, your hammer. Smart man. He has a bad hand at this point and he knows he isn't going to hang , shoot himself and then fall out a window after just suffering a mysterious heart attack. What I would like to know is where Putin has him at, does he fear Prigozhin or not. Is Prigozhin a tiger Putin got on, and now doesn't know how to get off of ?
Head of state should never ever get close to mercenary groups. It ends badly. Prigo has his own assassins and surveillance program in Wagner. Then there is his troll factory that can damage putin’s reputation if needed. Russia has a long tradition of using chefs to poison/kill people. Here Prigo is a caterer for schools and all.
I believe that he’s a key part of their Maskirovska. Give those that are not on side with the main party message an alternative that they can flock to and then slowly subvert that message over time to represent the main stream. PayOps 101.
My intuit almost exactly. Well done.
Vlad was right everyone, we can all calm down now. 😂
This video aged amazingly well.
Yes calm down and let Ukranians keep dying. So long as Russian’s don’t have to suffer. It’s very clear now exactly what Russians are.
Oh man, the timing....
Prigozhin should become a TV series producer, oh wait he already is.
Prigozhin just called for a "march" against Shoigu's MOD. He's still careful to avoid criticizing Putin, but this is starting to get insane nonetheless. Was this most recent development already included in your analysis? If not, does it change your analysis? Is a Russian civil war about to begin?
He also said Russian Leadership
Thanks Vlad for these thoughts and perspective
More recent events suggest matters are getting more seriously out of control for Moscow. Hopefully the Ukrainian couter offensive will make good use of the unfolding chaos.
Thank you Vlad,, 🥰
Formalizing informal power... good insight
This video was uploaded too soon.
What about Prigozhin saying Donbass wasn't attacked and NATO wouldn't attack Russia? It would give Putin a way out (we were lied to/incompetence Shoigu/Gerasimov) and Prigozhin a way into becoming Minister of Defense...(but falling out of a window not too much time after, Putin won't have heroes next to him on the throne).
This is both enjoyable to watch, and utterly terrifying.
I get the feeling that it is only a matter of time before Wager joins forces with Ukraine. They are mercenaries, and learning that they have been lied too.
My characterization? Uhmm... "Wagnerian".
Cheers Vlad. Thanks for the space.
Time will tell. It isn't until the tide goes out that you learn who was swimming naked.
I knew this video was coming after his tirade! Thanks beautiful Vlad. :)
Pregogyn is scapegoat function
Stuff is happening in Russia
Yes, but WHAT??
Civil war in Russia I hope but to early to say
Does the Russian language use the 'the wheels are falling off' idiom?
Not really
You said "Beria" and I got gooseflesh...and shuddered a bit, too.
Confusion to our enemies! Let's hope this war is not like one of those trick birthday candles that can't be blown out.
I like your analysis a lot. I think he's very clever as he opens the way to a new out to Russia. He kind of shields Putin here by attacking the military leadership but budges in with a distinct populist message. He's definitely making a play for some step of power into the future. It's all very clever and the kind of unexpected event Putin can play off of well.
Love your thoughts! Thanks for sharing. Kremlinology remains, as always, criminology.
Now they're even saying that the MOD struck Wagner camps with missiles and that Prigozhin sent out a message hinting at civil war. Here's hoping
Fires between wagner and mobiks, and now moving into rostov. Lets go!
Perhaps this is the 'Black Swan Event' that was foretold in the recent interview on Times Radio...but so soon????
It’s a merry go round going faster and faster it’s gearing up to be quite a crash , spiders in a jar always kill each other
This reminds me of Brexit. The UK versus the UK. And the media-mediated mass psychodrama.
Good job Vlad
Lol, I thought Vlad was going to do a spittake at 1:30!
Mines a tea Vlad.
Oooh...Beria/Prigozhin. I look forward to the discussion of those two bona fide sadists!
How can you be this fast?
You are incredible
I'd disagree only with the last part. I think he has those desires now, he's just not acting on them overtly right now. It's a lot of theater directed at Shoigu, the man that will be used as the "top" fall guy (no pun intended).
But I think he currently sees an avenue for himself to take Putin's place.