(EViews10)Interpret VAR, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition

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  • Опубліковано 22 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 89

  • @CrunchEconometrix
    @CrunchEconometrix  6 років тому +9

    UA-cam recently changed the way my content will be monetised. My channel now needs 1,000 subscribers. So it would be amazing if you show your support by both watching my videos and subscribing to my channel if you haven’t done so already. Monetising my videos allows me to invest back into the channel with some new equipment so this small gesture from you will be extremely huge for me. Many thanks for your support….CrunchEconometrix loves to teach, help me stay online.

  • @achudakhinkudachin2048
    @achudakhinkudachin2048 Місяць тому +1

    That was very helpful how you interrelated the coefficients to fevds in the var model, other teachers don't do that. It is a great video!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  Місяць тому

      Thanks for your encouraging feedback, deeply appreciated! 🙏🥰

  • @Econotitans
    @Econotitans 2 роки тому +3

    your work is commendable. u explain the way a student really want to be explained

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 роки тому +1

      Thanks Zunerah, for the encouraging feedback. Deeply appreciated! 🙏☺️

  • @Kotletka131
    @Kotletka131 4 роки тому

    I'm now writing an essay for an econometrics course, and your videos rescued me a lot! Box-Jenkins videos were the most understandable among all I've seen, and VAR ones are also great. Thank you very much!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 роки тому

      Thanks for the encouraging feedback, Kot. Deeply appreciated! Please may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

    • @Kotletka131
      @Kotletka131 4 роки тому

      @@CrunchEconometrix from Russia 😄

  • @antonkajor1218
    @antonkajor1218 5 років тому +1

    amazing job.... I learn alot from your tutorial.. God bless you

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому

      Hi Anton, thanks for the kind words and positive feedback. Deeply appreciated! Please may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

    • @antonkajor1218
      @antonkajor1218 5 років тому +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix I'm from yogyakarta Indonesia. I'm waiting for your next videos :))

  • @daiane_2310
    @daiane_2310 3 роки тому

    Always amazing videos! God bless you!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 роки тому +1

      Thanks for the kind words, Daiane... deeply appreciated! ❤️

  • @marnix122
    @marnix122 4 роки тому

    Your tutorials are super helpful madam, thank you so much for all your hard work and explanation!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 роки тому

      Thanks Mamix, for the encouraging feedback! Deeply appreciated! May God bless you, amen 🙏

  • @mohammedarmah9035
    @mohammedarmah9035 4 роки тому +1

    You are doing a great job. Keep it up.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 роки тому

      Hi Mohammed, thanks for the encouraging feedback. Deeply appreciated! Please may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

  • @bazezewchekol6458
    @bazezewchekol6458 Рік тому +1

    Thank you very much and wish long live

  • @genesisb.kollie753
    @genesisb.kollie753 6 років тому +1

    Thank you very much for your tutorial. It is helpful

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  6 років тому

      Hi Genesis, I'm really glad that you got value while watching and I hope that you have subscribed so that you get my videos the moment I upload them. Kindly help to share my link ua-cam.com/users/CrunchEconometrix to your friends and social media community. A lot of beginners need to know that econometrics is not difficult at all.

  • @panggaulibau9849
    @panggaulibau9849 6 років тому +2

    thnk you i love you. hopefully can graduated next year

  • @saada.izeddin7712
    @saada.izeddin7712 2 роки тому +2

    Hello CrunchEconometrix team, thank you for the great efforts. My question is about the S.E. column, how to interpret it and its role in the model?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 роки тому

      Hi Saad, I restrict myself to the relevant areas of FEVD. You may want to check out other online resources on the SE column. Thanks

  • @kanya1998
    @kanya1998 5 років тому +2

    Dear Ngozi, You are doing a great job, i like the way you put your explanations, easy to understand, you are a great my great tutor! i do have one suggestion though, could you please number your tutorials? sometimes it is not easy to tell whether there is a previous tutorial or next. Once again, keep up the good work, spread the knowledge!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому

      Hi Anthony, thanks for the positive feedback on my videos. Deeply appreciated! 💕 Yes, I number my videos and I always mention the prerequisite videos to watch in all my presentations. Kindly share my Channel link with your students and academic networks. May I know where you are reaching me from?

  • @florencesitima2697
    @florencesitima2697 5 років тому +1

    You are doing an immense job,keep it up.But iwould like to hear much on step by step procedure in performing bivariate VAR model.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому

      Hi Florence, thanks for the encouraging remark. Deeply appreciated! Procedure for a bivariate VAR is the same as in any multivariate VAR. May I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

  • @dimasmukhlas3952
    @dimasmukhlas3952 2 роки тому +1

    Thanks! Its helpful!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 роки тому

      Thanks, Dimas for the encouraging feedback. Deeply appreciated! 🙏💗

  • @ucheosemenam4101
    @ucheosemenam4101 3 роки тому +1

    Nice videos. Please Ma, can you make out time to do a video on SVAR and how to impose restrictions on Eviews?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 роки тому

      Great suggestion Uche. I will but it will be posted on my paid Teachable platform. Here is the link cruncheconometrix.teachable.com/p/practical-econometrics-for-researchers-beginners-and-advanced-level-users-perba/

  • @phillipsturm5701
    @phillipsturm5701 5 років тому +1

    You are doing a great job, thank you. By which percentage is said that the exogenous variable has a great influence on the endogenous variable. ?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому

      Hi Phillip, thanks for the positive feedback on my videos. Deeply appreciated! 💕 Strong exogenous influence is when other variables in the VAR model do not influence movement in the outcome variable. No industry guidelines as to the percentage. But any figure below 50% should do. May I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

  • @abusuhayb6791
    @abusuhayb6791 4 роки тому +1

    Thanks for your generosity for providing such useful tutorial, if I understand you well, is this what you mean The T-stat LNRGDP(-1) showed highly significant 7.68 which means a 0.99% increase on LNGDP for a 1% increase in LNGDP(-1). Similarly, The T-stat LNEDS(-1) showed highly significant 2.04 which means a 0.31% increase on LNGDP for a 1% increase in LNEDS(-1).

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 роки тому +1

      You got it right, Abu!👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽 Please may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

    • @abusuhayb6791
      @abusuhayb6791 4 роки тому +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix Qatar

  • @moisedjepangkouamo469
    @moisedjepangkouamo469 4 роки тому +2

    very helpfull tutorial. i appreciate. but my principal preoccupation is how to run GMM model througt eviews?

  • @sarahben1
    @sarahben1 3 роки тому +1

    Hi, this video was very informative! I have a question regarding the p values and coefficients I have obtained after running a VAR - some of my variables show a statistically significant p-value (less than 0.05) however they have a negative coefficient and negative t-statistics. What is your opinion on this? How shall I go about interpreting these results? Or is my model wrong? Fortunately this is only occurring to my control variables and not my variable of interest.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 роки тому

      Thanks for the positive feedback, Sarah. Negative coefficients imply that when the regressors change the dependent variable falls.

  • @willwu5366
    @willwu5366 3 роки тому +1

    Hi, I got a question that what if I obtained a large S.E in the variance decomposition analysis? Thank you!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 роки тому

      Hi Will, I suggest that you use the p-value to take your decision.

  • @BrocoliEnjoyer1
    @BrocoliEnjoyer1 3 роки тому

    Thank you for the explanation ma. For the VAR estimates, how do you know when the results are significant?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 роки тому

      Use the t-stat like I mentioned in the clip. I'll refer you to any basic econometrics textbooks for more info on hypotheses testing and inferences.

  • @paleesemendy7497
    @paleesemendy7497 Рік тому

    thanks for the head up😍

  • @okanaybar
    @okanaybar 5 років тому +1

    I like your video. Thank you. My question is in regards to the endogenity-exogenity terms. Regarding the terms under "From other variables", should the first one, "Strongly Exogenous" not be "implies strong influence on dependend variable"?. Or is it true to say "implies weak influence on dependend variable"?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому +1

      Hi Okan, thanks for complimenting my video, deeply appreciated. The interpretation is correct. Remember that VAR is an endogenous model, so if other variables have weak influence on the outcome variable, it implies that those other variables exhibit "strong exogeneity"....may I know where you are reaching me from?

    • @okanaybar
      @okanaybar 5 років тому +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix That's right. I am from Turkey. I am also Phd studen in France. I taught Finance at Rennes School of Busines and at Rennes Campus of Coventry University. I am also finance practicioner. I am commodity trading expert.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому

      @@okanaybar Amazing profile...impressive!!! Kindly share my videos with your students and academic networks. Thanks!

    • @okanaybar
      @okanaybar 5 років тому

      When you do Var decomposition (multivariable process) with 2 lags, would it be meaningless to do bi-variate VAR and interpret results? Or the VAR model should also be multivariable?

    • @okanaybar
      @okanaybar 5 років тому +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix I sure will

  • @gobindaroy6616
    @gobindaroy6616 5 років тому +1

    Excellent !

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому

      Thanks Gobinda, for the positive feedback. Deeply appreciated! Kindly share my Channel link with your students and academic community...thanks!

  • @milesjd3021
    @milesjd3021 5 років тому +1

    Hello. Thank you so much for your tutorial! It is helping me a lot right now. :)
    But I am just wondering, in writing the VAR model, do I have to write the full model (even some of the coefficients are not significant) or I just need to present the model with only the significant coefficients included?
    Thank you so much!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому

      I think you mixed up your queries. You specify a model BEFORE estimation and coefficients (significant and not significant) are obtained AFTER estimation

    • @milesjd3021
      @milesjd3021 5 років тому

      @@CrunchEconometrix what if I already specified the model, but after estimation, some of the obtained coefficients are not significant. Can I still use the nonsignificant coefficients in substituting to the specified model?
      P. S. Sorry if I have too much question.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому

      I don't understand what you imply by "Can I still use the nonsignificant coefficients in substituting to the specified model?"

  • @TheAndreapop22
    @TheAndreapop22 3 роки тому +1

    hi!! we do not have to invert the signs??

  • @sbodavtians5591
    @sbodavtians5591 5 років тому +1

    Hi Ngozi thank you so much for your videos, i just have a question, how can you tell by the t-statisic what a variable is significant or not? What do you compare the t-statisic to?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому

      Hi Davtians, thanks for the positive feedback on my videos. Deeply appreciated. The regression output is based on a 2-tailed test using the 95% confidence interval at which a t-stat of 1.96 is considered to be significant at the 5% level. However, because many students often get confused about the t-stat, I encourage the use of the p-values which gives the exact level of significance at which the H0 can be rejected...may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

  • @axelndjore1896
    @axelndjore1896 3 роки тому +1

    When do we use first difference to run VAR estimation

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 роки тому +1

      Axel, I have responded to you on a different thread.

  • @dorstellappiah3173
    @dorstellappiah3173 4 роки тому

    Hello Dr, please in presenting your VAR results is there a need to presents all the results of the other dependent variables. in my case i have one dep. variable and three indep. variables. Do i need to presents the other independent variables being used as dependent variables?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 роки тому

      The choice is yours really. You can report on all or only the main variable of interest. Also, check papers that used VAR and adapt their style.

  • @pedromrfernandes
    @pedromrfernandes 5 років тому +1

    Thank you for the video.
    A 93,2% increase on real GDP? GDP almost doubles after a 1% increase em GDP(-1)?! does this make sense? or am I understanding this wrong? or is the variation of GDP in period t-1 responsible for 92,3% of the variation in period t?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому +1

      You scientifically interpret based on the outcome of your estimation. You can then find the intuition for it.

    • @pjmccloskey225
      @pjmccloskey225 5 років тому

      I agree with Pedro. Bosede means a 0.932% increase for a 1% increase.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому +1

      Thanks for the clarity PJ, that was definitely a slip from me. Gracias!

  • @ብሬአለክስ
    @ብሬአለክስ Рік тому +1

    Thanks alot

  • @30Oliviaa
    @30Oliviaa 5 років тому

    Is it possible to do a Generalised Forecast Error Variance Decomposition in Eviews? How?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому +1

      Hi Priya, apologies for the late response. Could be, not sure.

  • @immaculatelum5102
    @immaculatelum5102 3 роки тому +1

    Thanks ma

  • @mehdifarouki330
    @mehdifarouki330 Рік тому +1

    WHAT IS SE PLEASE

  • @shubhamgarg9540
    @shubhamgarg9540 2 роки тому

    Mam for running VAR model, our variable should be stationery at the same level. Is it necessary only for endogenous variables or also for exogenous variable. If all our variable are stationery at same level, but one exogenous variable are not, then we can run Var model or not.
    Please clarify

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 роки тому

      Hi Shubham, ALL the variables MUST be integrated of order one. I will advise you watch my VAR videos. Thanks.

  • @goherfatima9791
    @goherfatima9791 5 років тому +1

    Hello. thank yo for uploading these good and very informative videos. I want to make you request that can you please make videos for estimating structural VAR (SVAR) and specifically how to impose restrictions. I am learning it these days but your help in this regard would be highly appreciated.
    Many thanks

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 років тому

      Alright Goher, I'll have to learn SVAR and once I fully understand, then I will do videos on it. thanks!

    • @saada.izeddin7712
      @saada.izeddin7712 2 роки тому +1

      Hi Fatima
      any helping results do you have for your question? I have to understand the SVAR model and how to apply restrictions to finish my Dessertaion.
      Best Regards

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 роки тому

      Saad, there are several UA-cam videos on SVAR. Do a thorough search on UA-cam.