Tesla: Battery Material Strategies // Maintaining a 50% Growth Rate
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- Опубліковано 2 лип 2024
- For extreme scaling, Tesla will need extreme volumes of raw materials. The video will explore the battery materials strategies that Tesla can use to maintain a 50% growth rate.
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Timeline
00:00 Introduction
02:45 Thanks to RK and BMI
03:34 The Materials Challenge
11:32 What I Mean by Strategy
12:12 The State of Nickel
15:10 Explainer: Agreement Types
16:44 The State of Nickel Continued
18:43 Nickel: First Five Strategic Lessons
23:11 Lithium: Three More Strategies
28:47 Recycling as Part of Tesla’s Strategy
32:06 CO2 Emissions as Part of Tesla’s Strategy
32:52 Full Summary and Additional Points
#BattChat #BatteryTwitter
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said - Наука та технологія
Note 1: Error. The Y-Axis at 5:31 should be GWh, not Millions of Vehicles.
Note 2: Since I finished this video, Drew has confirmed that permitting is the ultimate bottleneck and that Sodium Ion would be a great option:
ua-cam.com/video/-JUlVEDitlA/v-deo.html
Was gonna say this resonates well with Drew’s recent interview. Thanks for the wonderful insight Jordan!
yep, always thought so. for static storage at least.
Australia has just changed government. They have gone from Scott Morrison's & the Liberal parties, Coal, Coal, Coal block EV & Renewable any way we can including using taxation to stop in home power generation. To a new Labour government squeaking into power but the actual rout being by both the Greens & the Teals (independent Liberals with strong Green leanings). With Labour needing support from the Teals & Greens to govern for the next 3 years they are announcing a raft of support of action against climate change.
In that context Tesla offering to work with the Australian government to build battery producing factories to exploit Australian lithium seems very likely & given the Australian love of Muscle Cars & Trucks from Ford vs Holden (used to be owned by GM) I can imagine a CyberUte & Model X/Y factory would go down a storm.
Admittedly I haven't watched all of your video so far, so you might be about to lay all this out for me!
Thanks for the Tesla ride
How can we watch this video?
Jordan, your research and insights are hugely valuable. I am thankful for the effort you put into this. Please keep up the excellent work. If there is anything we in the community can do to further support you please let us know.
I appreciate the kind words man! Glad the information is useful 😀
How do you post 3 days before the video was online?
@@switzerland Patreon members get access to posts early. Definitely worth supporting Jordan.
The value you provide with these videos is insane, just from an investor's perspective it is amazing, but also on soooo many other levels like knowledge of the field, didactics as well as technical video crafting and so on. Being a Patron supporter is mandatory for your channel, otherwise it simply feels morally wrong to watch it for free xD Much love from Germany!
🤣 Yeah, I should do more shaming of the people that say it's 'free'. I'm like "it ain't free! .... Patreon supporters are paying for it and you're freeloading!" lol
Thanks for your support!~
I hope you don't mind if we pensioners take an unashamed free ride. After all we could be expired before much of this future unfolds. Your optimistic and deeply analytic videos inspire some hope that the planet will avoid a near-term extinction event.
I am not able to become a patron supporter because I am retired and on fixed income, but I do greatly appreciate the effort required to create these videos.
Now to my comments. Nowhere have I seen any statistic that says there is sufficient lithium in seawater to make any effort to exploit it worthwhile. On the other hand, if we bring nuclear into the picture, we will have sufficient energy for desalination and otherwise expensive and difficult mineral extraction. There is some technology out there that promises to make graphene into specific molecular sieves. If that can be scaled, we will have an entirely different scenario. Otherwise, minerals from seawater is an energy black hole.
Besides, batteries based on sodium and sulfur are going to have energy densities far higher than lithium can even theoretically reach, and those elements are cheaply available almost everywhere. Until we can learn how to process graphite from existing carbon sources like coal or even possibly from the air, that may be the real limiting factor. We need to quit burning hydrocarbons and use them as ready feed sources for far more than plastics.
For example, massive production of graphene based products can replace all copper and aluminum wiring while weighing much less and being more flexible. Properly handled, graphene can be both the conductor in wire and the insulator around that wire, while being many times stronger than any other currently existing wire. Think of wiring as a structural element and follow that where it leads you. Enough for now.
Another home run. You really deserve some awards for the content you're producing. Outstanding.
It is hard to express just how good this content is generally, let alone on youtube. But I think your presentation of it may be even better. You compress some much information into basically a video infographic. Bravo yet again.
Thanks Kevin! Glad to provide useful information.
It is probably not yet economic, but with the ongoing drought conditions in the western USA, desalination plants will likely become more prevalent. These have a wastestream / brine where a large part of concentrating the minerals in seawater has already happened. These will form a better starting point to extract Li from seawater.
Bingo
green energy = free fresh water + lithium is a win win, not to mention the agricultural products that can come out of this.
And Elon recently tweeted that cost to desalinate is surprisingly low.
Wow, Jordan has nailed it. I think Elon and Drew haven’t spoken about this because they don’t want to create a gold rush and tip off all the competition. I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to hire Jordan to shut him up. 🤣
LOL! One of the executives actually told me to apply when I was in Austin. But, my highest and best use is sharing with you folks.
@@thelimitingfactor but you’ve gotten so good at what you do now that since you’re also sharing with the competition, I’ve gone from loving your channel to getting a little bit worried about it. 🙏
@@djnavari The hard part is the implementation, not the idea. Everyone in the industry is aware of these options. The shortfall is in willpower, money, talent to make it happen.
It is hard to see this channel as your highest and best use. It is unlikely that you will influence anyone who has the power and the will...and who is not already deeply involved in this process.
Where your talents would be useful is in working for some entity that has the money and the power to ACT. There, your knowledge and ability to research might actually influence. Otherwise, you are just another kibitzer influencing at most, small investors and probably misleading them.
@@thelimitingfactor But if they do cut you up, I have dibs on your brain.
Jordon, first thank you for your quest for knowledge and then to pass it on to us. Thank you.
What I find amazing is the sheer complexity of the battery production. But then even more mind boggeling is all the complexity of building a car, setting up the infrastructure, the manufacturing, the intellectual property management. The legality fronts and on an on. To think that one person could lead all those minds with same vision to shift in a new direction. What an amazing time we live in. Jordon it is people like you that help us to see forward. A heart felt thank you to you.
You're most welcome Michael! Thanks for watching.
This is an exceptionally good study of the all important materials situation. Nice work Jordan, your videos are excellent and still getting better, the level of your professionalism is impressive by any standard. I will be joining.
Great Scott! Jordan this is stellar work. I can't believe how much just this video contains. Seeing Tesla down in the markets while watching this makes me itch to buy more of this company before the cat is out of the bag. 20 million cars is a lot of EV's but if you don't have the materials sourced getting even half that will be impossible so see how much and how far Tesla is going to reach their goal is encouraging! This is a must watch (IMHO) for every Tesla Bull. Thanks again.
Awesome! Really happy to hear it!
Nice work Jordan, thank you. It’s going to be fun to watch this unwind.
I am always amazed at the ton of work and research that goes into these videos. Awesome as always Jordan!
Love your data driven assessments and laying things out in a very clear and concise manner. Thanks Jordan!
Kudos, you are one of the most thorough researchers I have ever witnessed. Fantastic work
Video was packed with great stuff from beginning to end!
Thorough, Professional, Detailed, Well done!
Great video, thank you!
I often have to wait until I have some time where I can focus on your material, not just listen to it in the background, and then often I have to rewatch it anyway.
Thanks - Always get my coffee ready when I wame up and there's a limiting factor video. Thanks for all the hard work you put into informing us.
Sure thing Jeffrey! Thanks for the support and the kind words.
Eye-opening. Highly detailed and clearly communicated. Excellent video!
This is a good honest and fair presentation on raw materials for batteries. It's not as bad as some press articles say, but there are problems to be solved, as you pointed out. thanks for the hard work in making this video
This was amazingly well researched and created. Thanks Jordan!
Thanks Jordan! Your research skills and ability to clearly and concisely set out your findings is extraordinary! ✊👏👏👏
Sure thing Scott! Thanks for the support, much appreciated. Glad to provide useful information for the community.
This is more of a reference than entertainment. Excellent work.
This is incredible information. And I‘m just 5 minutes into the video. I’ve rarely seen such detailed information on UA-cam.
This is exactly the video I've been hoping to see. Keep up the good work.
That's a big relief thanks! I was worried about this one 😅. I did a few things different.
Agreed, this juice was worth the squeeze. Premium fresh nectar.
This is the information my mind desires!
Thank you so much for this Golden Information!
Great Work Team Limiting Factor!
Thank you for siting your sources. It’s good to Lead through Trust!
Jordan, awesome video! One of your best in my opinion. Thank you very much!
🤠🙌 Excellent! You're most welcome.
Great video Jordan! Worth the wait for the considered evaluation of the space
Wow what a video, terrific work Jordan.
Very helpful insights and great to have another view outside of the large consulting organisations.
Thank you for this detailed video.
Great video Jordan 👍
Thanks for the consistently excellent content!
Thanks Jordan. Love your work.
Thank you Jordan!
Great show.
Water desalination plants produce a lot of salt as waste... If you do it right, you can recover a lot of metals. Sodium, magnesium, etc...
Chile has lithium reserves, and they are along the coast. Lithium concentration is probably higher there.
Salton Sea has a lot of lithium... Saudis need water...
Lots of sun to power the electrolysis...
This is a fantastic quality deep dive!
Fabulous research my dude
Amazing video! Again.
You rock. 👍🏻
Just simply Thank YOU! Beautiful brain tappin in to the flow of the universe.
Absolutely amazing professional information.❤
Hey it was great to meet you today thanks for giving my son and I a ride. Definitely gave us a lot to think about for the purchase of our next vehicle.
Hi Chad! Sure thing man 🤜🤛 🤠 Thanks for checking out the channel!
another amazing video! thanks for your efforts, Jordan
Excellent content as always. Thank you very much!
Wow so much info, watched full episode. Thank you Jordan for all these insights!
Sure thing buddy!
Can’t believe how quickly this channel has grown.
You keep making great video, never disappoints!
High quality video. One watch probably doesn't do it justice. Well done
Great lecture, again 👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼
Wow, so much great information and insights. Thanks Jordan!
Sure thing buddy!
great presentation brother.... keep up the good work. Aloha from hawaii
Really informative appreciate the work you do
Wow! Unbelievably helpful.
Dow Corning has a plant that extracts magnesium from the sea in free port texas. I think they also extract other things also.
teeth?
Great video 😉👍!
Epic! As always.
Awesome layout 👏
I’ve never seen a video this thorough in my life
🤠🤜🤛
Coin tossed. Thank you for the information you provide, I really enjoy hearing your insights!
You're most welcome Daniel!
Consistently excellent output. A tour-de-force.
Another great video, thanks.
Wow! Most researched video that every Tesla investor should watch. Good, solid info here.
Amazing video!
Amazing.
This is so well researched
Nice work
You are on a roll Jordan. This video brings together research on the biggest risk factor for Tesla better than anywhere else. And I love your organized, "this is what Tesla can do about it" approach.
Thanks for the kind words Mike!
Winter is coming! Love it!!!
This analysis is TOP NOTCH. AAA+
Great video
Jesus Jordan you out did yourself again!!!
Marvelous video!.
I would love to see another interview with your mining buddies
Thank you so much.
😊 Thanks man!
Thanks!
🙋♂️🤗THANKS JORDAN FOR YOUR INSIGHTS INTO THIS 😎😍😍😍
THANKS FOR A QUICK REPLY🤗
HOPE ALL IS GOING WELL 🤗😍😍😍
Thanks
Thanks man!
Thank you for the Tesla ride
Sure thing buddy!
Congrats! You're the most information-dense and clearest Tesla news and perspective channel on UA-cam.
In a vast desert of drama, you are always an oasis of objectivity. Thank you.
Sure thing David!
Thank you!
Good point about lithium being plentiful in the sea. I think it’s possible to use reverse osmosis with a membrane plus refining and further enrichment to get all the low concentration lithium from the sea.
¡Gracias!
De nada!
Great stuff, as usual. Though you need to take a pause every now and then, even if its just to take a breath. I was exhausted just trying to keep up.
I like it.
Manufacturing at extreme scale.
THE GLOVES COME OFF
Love it!!!!
Lithium from seawater: how about a solar water distilation plan to produce fresh water? The left over brime can be used as a feed stock for lithium extraction. You use the input energy twice, and you turn the normal waste brime into a material source. Heck you can also sell the salt.
This is so information dense. You could release this as 5 * 10 minute videos over 2 weeks, probably better for your advertising revenue and for my tiny attention span.
Or break out each 1 of his 10 bullet points into a separate video and upload one each every 2-3 day's? Then do a finale on all 10 point's.
Might drive more viewers to his very under rated and extremely well researched channel. 🤔
Great vid, highly appreciated. One big approach of mitigation of battery resource limitation is actually significantly reducing the number of cars needed on the surface of Mother Earth. Robotaxi can do it.
Köszönjük!
Szívesen!
This is getting *WAY* above my ability to retain the information!
I'm at the point now of "What Jordan said.🤷♀️" 😁
LOL
Interesting to watch this right after watching James Litinsky’s interview at the All-In Summit
Impressive.
"Most impressive" -Darth Vader
Jordan, always some of the best content on YT. On the moonshot extraction, what if was a natural extension of existing and future desalination plants. I would assume the lithium is bonded to the salt that would ordinarily returned to ocean. Potable water and lithium for sustainable energy.
A few people have mentioned this, seems helpful
Thank...
Great.
The Spice Must Flow
Amazing analysis. Thank you.
It's looking like it's going to be Tesla and Chinese Manufactures (maybe Korean) that will have raw materials to make enough BEVS. The rest of the German, Japanese and American OEMS are in real trouble.
They should help accelerate the Thacker Pass project in Nevada by working with LAC.. perfect location and largest in the US
Superb! On a point of information, I think LG Chem is a Korean company.
As noted earlier, this video is your best yet. Now you might be getting close to enough data to speculate when energy becomes as big as cars? 2027? Limiting factor is batteries.
2027 seems like a good guess to me! 2030 at the latest. Off-the-cuff gueses of course.
More specifically, the TYPE of batteries?
I am much more bullish on Livent then Albemarle. Unlike Albemarle, $LTHM is a pure play lithium producers. $ALB is only 50% in Lithium, the rest is not helpful to Tesla. Needless to say anyone producing lithium will be printing money in the next few years.
The lithium market is unbelievably tight and many investors do not understand the space. Lithium carbonate went from $10/kg last year to about $80-$100/kg this year. More and more OEM's are joining the EV bandwagon. It's going to be crazy interesting.
Absolutely fantastic video - when I saw UBS's forecast for shortfalls of different materials I thought why mention rare earths and why leave out Mn, and they you asked the same questions. Sea water extraction does not seem economically feasible. At 0.1 ppm, you need to process over 2 million kg of sea water to extract 1 kg of Li. Also, you need to separate it from other more concentrated cations, including Na, Ca, K and Mg with Ca being about 100,000 times more concentrated. So, you're working against a very large entropic driving force to keep Li mixed. Better to go after a more concentrated source and avoid handing so much water - the Salton Sea is 4000 times more concentrated in Li than sea water.
Totally! The only way I can see (sea?) that it might work is to combine with desalination or something.