Are we on the verge of a global trade war? | Ed Conway analysis
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- Опубліковано 5 лют 2025
- As Donald Trump returns to the White House, there have been a lot of market shifts.
President Trump's tariff threats are dominating sentiment, with the prospect of 10% tariffs on US imports from China next month weighing heavily on Asian stock markets.
Sky News Economics and Data Editor Ed Conway explains in more detail what affect Mr Trump has on global markets.
Read more: news.sky.com/s...
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They tried tariffs in 1930 and it made the depression much worse. Got my popcorn ready for the fallout for these tariffs.
Tariffs were in place prior to 1930 it's what led us to the depression in 1929
CANADA WON LAST TIME AND WILL WIN THIS TIME TO WE HAVE A SECRET WEAPON HEHEHEHEHE NO ONE KNOW ABOUT IT YET .
contraction of money supply causes economic depression. Economics 101.
Tariffs have nothing to do with it.
@@plasmaastronaut Nonsense
@noelbartley1084 what china has done to small business owners for the last 30 years has been catastrophic.
I'm in favour of selective tariffs not blanket wide ones.
Amazing! Both Trump and Sky News don't understand that tariffs are paid by the American consumer.
Yes. Essentially Trump wants regressive taxation. He plans to tax poor and working class Americans through tariffs, instead of wealthy Americans through corporate taxes, income taxes and capital gains taxes.
can buy apples from america for $1, or from china for $1 plus 10 cents tariff. A consumer that pays the china tariff deserves to pay china tariff
By other hand, making more money from tariffs will allow the govt to do away with income tax, so that rich people will be richer 🤷
Taxing consumption rather than production has some merit. The primary argument against consumption tax is it generally isn’ t progressive with wealth.
Who said that the American consumer will pay more for temu rubbish..
Consumers pay the tariffs ultimately.
Oh no the disaster of people paying more for temu rubbish.. my sincerest sympathies go out to these individuals.
@@Micfri300 temu should be banned as an earth crime!
American consumers if the tariffs are applied by the US government on imports into the United States, other countries will simply sell their products to countries except for the United States, the US isn’t the only country on the planet..
This Sky guy failed to say tariffs are paid not by the exporting countries but by the consumers of the importing countries directly.
i.e. if they keep importing
@@AndyA86 some things just will, and then often the other country reciprocates
That wasn't the point of the piece though. This was just about what percent of gdp is made up from tarrifs
If a Honda ev becomes the same price to that of a Chinese ev that was prior to trump much cheaper the American consumer will now buy the Honda ev..
@@AndyA86 And US can replace everything in one day? :D
Tariffs are not money coming in from abroad. It is a tax put on your own people if they buy foreign stuff..
maybe what inevitably will happen is as American companies produce alternatives, at competitive pricing, foreign companies will lower their prices (plus tariff percentage) to compete with American companies, at which point American companies will have to compete as well. In the long run wouldnt this bring down prices for the consumer? Eg. a product is $1 plus tariff its $1.10, American company prices at $1.09, Chinese company sells at $0.98 plus tariff = $1.08, bringing the price down over time as they compete? Wouldn't it just reduce profit margin for China? If they can ultimately produce at much lower costs, all they'd have to do is drop the price to just below what American companies can sell for. Its a race to the bottom. Its a genuine question, Im not that knowledgable on this.
Are drugs more expensive there now?
Problem is Chinese can afford to lower prices to be competitive even with import duties. US companies lose out anyway whilst avg. US consumer loses out on cheaper goods, whilst rich and government are laughing.
I'm amazed by how selfless all the republic votes are in stopping the wealth tax on the rich only to be replaced by tariffs on every day goods.
Tax the wealthy too. Stop deficit spending!
The terrief income is not going to pay down debt, but rather to finance tax reduktion on the top earners and corporations. They are stealing it from the middle to low income population. A reversed Robin Hood. But they voted for him
Does not tariffs make imported stuff in America expensive ?
Yep, makes local grown, produced, refined more competitive. Same reason Chiba tariffs the west on a lot of things
@@justgeneric2876 Chiba? Japan does tariff many things from the west tho.
@@vorlon81japan tariffs items from the west?
Nope they make the yen artificially weak.
Unlike China japan actually plays by the rules.
Yes, it does. Many here will argue that it will help American producers, growers, etc be more competitive. These people tend to ignore the fact that a lot of the goods imported don't have made-in-America equivalents. This is simply because it is too expensive to produce these goods in America due to wages, production scale, logistical costs, etc. They keep using the argument for targeted tariffs when Trump has been talking about across-the-board tariffs that will make a whole lot of the imported stuff that has no American-made equivalent more expensive.
@@rahimmajid647 but surely over time companies are incentivised to make "made-in-America" equivalents because of the profit incentive? Then once they compete with other companies within America, they will also compete on pricing?
On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S. by 60% and implement a 10% duty on imports from all other countries. Postelection, he said he intends to impose an additional 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada. And in late December, he threatened the European Union with tariffs if member countries don’t increase their purchases of U.S. oil and gas to reduce the “tremendous” trade gap with the U.S.
If all of these tariff proposals go into effect, the average tariff rate will rise from 2.4% of the value of imported goods to 17.7%, according to estimates from the Tax Foundation
And all paid by the consumer, of course!
Have a look at that graph while remembering the slave trade was dismantled in 1865, hence the move away from tariffs. Before 1865, much of the population was getting paid food.
Wow! Great spot!!
That’s interesting
The Slave trade was abolished by the British in 1807, and we didn’t have to have a civil war or segregation like the US..👍
Dumbest President ever, Trump doesn't seem to understand how tariffs work, Americans will be paying for those increases, not the companies. All competitors will do is forward on the costs.
"The Tariff of Abominations during the Civil War"
What have I just heard
I think he meant to say pre civil war but slipped up
The continuously changing economic conditions in our society have made it necessary for people to find additional sources of income, thus I am looking at the stock market to fuel my retirement goal of $3m, my only concern is the recent market crash.
The key to big returns is not big moving stocks. It's managing risk in relationship to reward. Having the correct size on and turning your edge as many times as necessary to reach your goal. That holds true from long term investing to day trading.
I totally agree; I am 66 years old, recently retired, with approximately $1.2 million in external retirement funds. I am debt free and have very little money in retirement funds compared to the total value of my portfolio over the past three years. To be honest, I didn't do all this alone, but with the help of a financial advisor. Having one is currently the best way to trade in the stock market, especially for people nearing retirement.
The general story is not bad, but plenty of errors in this piece. For example it's not the country sending goods that pay, it's the ones receiving them in the US that will pay and most of the time that is billed through to the end consumer (average Joe). On top of that, often the domestic competition abuses the higher prices of the foreign competition to raise theirs as well.
Love these materials
Vote Brexit, we can trade with America!
😂😂😂
No. Because the world will trade with each other and just ignore the States!
That improbable given how much the U.S. imports.
no chance. La-la land
It's already happening. Just look at the deals China is making with Mexico, Central America, Russia and Africa.
What I wanna know is, what sort of excuse will be pulled out of a hat that further impedes my UK living standards? Atm, it feels like excuse after excuse for little to no reason other than corruption on a Government/national scale.
Thats really well broken down 👍
The lesson from tarrifs are that they are the first step to war. The reason that humanity is studying history at all is so that we can learn from past mistakes.
I don't care if "his bark is often times worse than his bite", I not buy any american products - which often are of very abysmal quality - for a very long time, if ever again.
When Adolf Hitler became Chancellor of Germany in 1933, he introduced policies aimed at improving the economy. The changes included privatization of state-owned industries, import tariffs, and an attempt to achieve autarky (national economic self-sufficiency).
What has hitler got to do with anything😅
Thats true, the reply is that it worked amazingly well. It all went wrong when he invaded Poland.
@@jonathanholmes9069 it’s good to know history lol
@@jonathanholmes9069 Godwin's Law
I don’t think he privatised but Natalia’s by the back door, certainly had plenty of influence on the ‘commercial’ plane production
That's right tariffs are terrible, let's just let most every other country tariff out goods and well just take it.
When tarrifs were the main source of Federal funds the US was the biggest creditor nation in the world by far after 50 years of low tarrifs they are the biggest debtor in the world by far.
This is not the tariffs fault. Low tariffs also means American products will be sold cheaper abroad. If USA became a debtor, it is because US people and US state spent more than what they produced. The real question is why US products are not being preferred at other countries. Remember that at 1870 USA sent its fleet to Japan to force them to open their market. Now it is USA who is closing its market. Why?
Just need to increase the digital services tax to 10%
Trump is assuming Tariffs work one way in his favour but he will be in for a shock. Europe, Asia & China would respond and it will affect average Americans big time. No more cheap stuff.
The reality is supply and demand in the country will become a drag in all countries under tariffs ....along with local corporations taking advantage of the demand increase and supply deficit ....prices don't go down hardly ever....profit and shareholders first.....got to getting other people's money to gamble with while abusing consumers and employees...
They are replacing the tax that rich people pay more(income tax) with a tax that everyone pays equally(tariffs). This will hit non-rich people very hard.
Things about to get more expensive for most americans 😂
I used to spend a lot on watching circuses; now I watch the US.
The headline is misleading because he also said the EU too!
It a tax for the people to pay😂😂😂
The tariff isn’t on the country it’s on what Americans pay for the goods.
maybe what inevitably will happen is as American companies produce alternatives, at competitive pricing, foreign companies will lower their prices (plus tariff percentage) to compete with American companies, at which point American companies will have to compete as well. In the long run wouldnt this bring down prices for the consumer? Eg. a product is $1 plus tariff its $1.10, American company prices at $1.09, Chinese company sells at $0.98 plus tariff = $1.08, bringing the price down over time as they compete? Wouldn't it just reduce profit margin for China? If they can ultimately produce at much lower costs, all they'd have to do is drop the price to just below what American companies can sell for. Its a race to the bottom. Its a genuine question, Im not that knowledgable on this.
good morning sky new, for a good 10 years we already are
What kinda puzzles me if Americans are buying this stuff from the trading partners there must be a gap in the market the Us economy can fill in the highly unlikely event these level of trade tariffs were implemented it’s going to damage the US economy and level the gap to be filled by trade partners like China who would happily fill the gap
A blanket wide tariff would.
A free trade deal with countries who wouldn't trade with China would be beneficial and hurt china.
Why is the average tariff rate for South Korea so low?
Back in the 1800’s people didn’t buy avocados or cheap electronics .
Higher tariffs and made only in America policies will result in higher prices. I remember well when color TVs made in America cost 2-4 weeks salary
Now it’s closer to 2 days if that.
There’s only 300m people in the US - goods will be sent to countries with larger populations that are gaining disposable income.
Yep because raising the price of goods on his own populous is the best way to lower the price of goods. Cool story bro...
Isn't it amazing that Ireland is a bigger trade partner for America than the UK!
Bullshite the UK exports more than $200Billion to the USA where as Ireland only exports $54Billion !!!
@@william_marshal not going correct it?
Ideally, he wants to go back to something like the 19th or 18th century where there was basically no income tax and all the money came in by tariffs. A lousy system for the general population but great for the rich people who won't have any regulations or taxes to worry about ever again.
How can they put up 10% when Trump has clearly said tariffs against Mexico and Canada will be 25%???
Other countries will then increase tariffs on US made goods and the old days of local industry protectionism will return, driving up inflation. Competion on goods from other countries keeps a lid on local prices. Already the market is anticipating rising inflation which will result in higher interest rate rises which makes the US dollar stronger against other currencies, this in turn reduces the capacity of foreign counties to import US goods and their local industries will start to fill in the gaps. Tariffs were reduced for a reason, but Trump hasn't learn't that lesson.
Yet again the average US citizen gets screwed over by its own government. Meanwhile the rich won't care, most of the stuff they buy they will write off as a business expense and any extra they pay for goods due to tariffs will be more than off-set by the income tax cuts they receive.
So the tariffs from 1798 to 1865 included income from slaves ?
Slaves didn't have an income, if they did they wouldn't be slaves ... think about it !!!
🎉the missing chart is showing the value of international trade rise as tariffs fell after 1947 and how much trade collapsed after the smoot Hawley tariffs of 1930. If trade collapses, so does the ability to service international debt.
Pretty sure this will increase inflation in America.I would give it 2 years before voters turn against him
The US can't produce all the goods and services it consumes, that's why it has to import some of them...........
If the US implements tariff(s), not only will good and services become more expensive for the American consumer, it will also result in retaliatory tariffs, makes it more difficult for American companies to compete internationally, resulting in job losses and lower tax revenue for Uncle Sam. All this within the context of America owing a historic level of debt.
Having said all that China's economic rise does need to be contained.
China is not the USA's biggest trading partner, it's Mexico, followed by Canada.
This is just rich people not paying tax
War trade between US ,Canada,UK and EU it will bad for US first.UK and Canada will tie closer with EU for a free trade.Europe is a bigger market then US.Over 500 mil EU population vs 200 mil in US.
Trump 1.0 would bark. Trump 2.0 will bite.
Yeah , he will bite his own voters with the blowback of tariffs.
Trump does neither, he just plays golf all day !!!
Question: maybe what inevitably will happen is as American companies produce alternatives, at competitive pricing, foreign companies will lower their prices (plus tariff percentage) to compete with American companies, at which point American companies will have to compete as well. In the long run wouldnt this bring down prices for the consumer? Eg. a product is $1 plus tariff its $1.10, American company prices at $1.09, Chinese company sells at $0.98 plus tariff = $1.08, bringing the price down over time as they compete? Wouldn't it just reduce profit margin for China? If they can ultimately produce at much lower costs, all they'd have to do is drop the price to just below what American companies can sell for. Its a race to the bottom. Its a genuine question, Im not that knowledgable on this.
more likely the Chinese product becomes more expensive so people start buying the Vietnamese alternative. They are still paying more but it's cheaper than the US made one.
@@greatfelixo good point, if there is an alternative I guess. But also Trump is using tariff threats to negotiate, I think thats what people are missing. Its straight out of art of the deal.
Meanwhile Elon Musk and other bilionaires are laughing thier way to the bank. Wake up America.
trump will come and go hopefully sooner than he thinks.
International trade is fragile and is on the verge of breaking up.
I had to look up the definition on this new term I've never heard before global trade War and sure enough it's nonsense. That's why I've never heard of it.
Please stop making up words for clickbait.
What a completely useless report.
What did it tell us.
How did it improve our knowledge.
Why waste the time making this if it wasn't going to inform us of something?
Ok, I'll head anyway
The guy shows many graphs but he didn't mention the part on Trump trying to reduce the government size.
Because that even if accurate and happens has absolutely no bearing on the issue.
Trump seems to have a very simplistic grasp of economics, his tariff policy sounds a 5 year old made it.
The EU is one trading block with the same external tarrifs. The US applies the same tarriffs to all countries of the EU. So why the difference between EU cpuntries in your chart? I guess thats because there's differences between the types of goods exported by each.
Trump is a businessman. Start from a strong posture and then compromise without looking weak. Didn't Biden bring in 100% tariffs on EV's ?
There's a massive difference between targeted tariffs on foreign adversaries and a blanket tariff on some of your closest allies
That was probably an attempt to boost the US EV market and at the behest of the US car manufacturing sector. Blanket tariffs will cover all goods from those countries and, unless an American market is available, the US consumer will have no choice but to pay the extra cost. It's also likely retaliatory tariffs will be imposed on the US but whether they'll be blanket or targeted is anyone's guess.
Make that a 6x bankrupt businessman who was given $400 million by his father.
First time I see this channel being concerned about their boy
Looks like its time to party on like its 1929!
Economics Editor? No wonder Sky News is up for sale.
Its almost like something happen in 1945 lol
Did America increased their tariffs on recreational drugs?
Trump advisers concede Ukraine peace deal is months away
😮😢😉 uk crime rate will drop and more jobs created as a entire industry/tourism grows and less wasted police officers less wasted prison space all for a plant which is nature which could help stabilise economy cannabis could help fix the UK bearing in mind we can't even keep prisoners in prison and from research cigarettes/alcohol are worse and they are legal even prescription medication comes with its side effects that can be way worse and people are already smoking cannabis in every village/town/city's all across the uk so why not make it work to your advantage and what are the uk saying that countries that have legalised are criminals ? And country would save in cannabis charges and wasted police/present spaces so real criminals like assault/murder/rape charges could be dealt with rather than prison space/police officers being taken up by some guy for his plants because in which world does it make sense to have real criminals running the streets why people are in prison for a plant the country would benefit hugely all medical patients could grow their own no one priced out of medication from private clinics and think of all the wasted tax money when police officers are called out and have to deal with people who are medical patients because of a smell I imagine it can be difficult to tell the difference between an legal and illegal smell lol
Well done Trump supporters
So trump wants the tariff of US isolation days
Trump doesnt understand basic economics 😂
Increase in the share of national currencies in mutual transactions among BRICS nations will reduce reliance on the US dollar, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated.
"One of our challenges is the reliance on the dollar. The financial framework of BRICS and transactions between BRICS nations in local currencies will undoubtedly help address this issue," Khamenei said, according to his press service. "A nation under sanctions must focus more on its internal capabilities and utilize them for its objectives," the Iranian leader added.
Transactions in national currencies among BRICS countries account for 65%, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov mentioned last November.
The BRICS grouping is seemingly more dysfunctional than the EU has ever really been, I don't think they even agreed to a substantive communique from their last big summit meeting. Besides out of that grouping the only ones of consequence are India and China (good luck trying to get them to play nice for any length of time they have basically been involved in limited wars 3 times in the last 50-60 years). Brazil and Indonesia have potential but also their fair share of issues.
Got the civil war date - peak/trough wrong 1828????
Make Uk great again
@@testgood9384 hard to see when tiny Ireland sells more to America than the UK, sad
YES AND CANADA WILL PREVAIL AS ALWAYS WE ARE NOT AFRAID OF TRUMP 100% TARIFFE WIL SUIT TRUMP FINE ????
@@leeannebishop51 naive thinking, Canadas floundering economy is severely dependent on America so maybe less bravado and more diplomacy is best
🇨🇦🇲🇽🥊🇺🇸🥊🇨🇳
The Europeans have thrived on tariffs, quota trade exclusions, subsidies and protected labour, so why can’t Americans have the same?
Then don't sign a trade agreement
clickbait
Trump will make America great again. Good bless America!
Don’t try Skys predictions, as they are never accurate.
I could write a long list of Skys wrong predictions. 🤭
Please do
Genuinely one of the most pointless videos to exist on UA-cam 😂
🇺🇸🤜🏼🇨🇦
Why though
@@Aklith To every question like that related to Trump the answer is money. Always. Learn this.
@miguelmelchior986 sadly, already learned that. Wanted to hear it from the original commenter. Morals are for sale in this trump administration
@miguelmelchior986Why wouldn't it be. Life's a competition.
@ the economy is a competition, life shouldn't be. It lacks empathy and compassion to boil everything down to $.
Looks like the EU is going to get a taste of its own medicine. Karma.
@@seanlander9321 probably be fine, itself is the largest single market in the world. The uk is in what single markets? Oh yeah they joined the Asia Pacific one, that's handy for effective trade 👀
@ America is looking to give Europe back what it does to others with its trade restrictions. Fair’s fair when the US is matching Europe on the trade war it started.