7 Ways a Housing CRASH Would Affect You

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  • Опубліковано 18 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 294

  • @economicshelp
    @economicshelp  Рік тому +1

    If you found this video useful, please subscribe for more videos like this and on the UK/World economy. ua-cam.com/users/economicshelp1

    • @Omar121
      @Omar121 Рік тому

      4 Essential Tips for Buying Property In Today’s Market!
      ua-cam.com/video/5HmsUyOVCoU/v-deo.html

  • @jaytame5950
    @jaytame5950 Рік тому +116

    Its not a cost of living crisis, its a greed crisis.

    • @888ssss
      @888ssss Рік тому +1

      fale economy

    • @Ben-jq5oo
      @Ben-jq5oo Рік тому +13

      Spot On.
      Greed by employers, paying low to very low wages which have fallen way behind general cost of living rises over a period of at least the last ten years.
      Greed by Supermarkets.
      Greed by banks, pushing too much lending.
      Greed by estate agents, in cahoots with the banks.

    • @Ror0009
      @Ror0009 Рік тому +2

      Yep bubbles pop, simple as

    • @Chillednfunked
      @Chillednfunked Рік тому +1

      It’s also fuelled by Brexit

    • @SamWilkinsonn
      @SamWilkinsonn Рік тому +4

      Capitalism encourages greed

  • @harryturnbull1884
    @harryturnbull1884 Рік тому +29

    Over the weekend son bid 200k on a 240k house and got accepted. Estate agents still trying to ramp prices - your time is up.

    • @bluceree7312
      @bluceree7312 Рік тому +4

      Can I ask which part of the country is this?

    • @bangdobrich
      @bangdobrich Рік тому

      @@bluceree7312 My guess would be the North East. I looked at a 2004 2 bed for 130,000 in Hull on saturday and on monday it already had an offer. It was this cheap as it was next to a council estate.

    • @jamesbarbour8400
      @jamesbarbour8400 Рік тому +1

      Crooked Bar Stewards - only interested in their commission on the sale !

  • @AnymMusic
    @AnymMusic Рік тому +15

    let it crash into the ground, and block corporations from buying it

  • @alessandrobianco7183
    @alessandrobianco7183 Рік тому +6

    I yet have to see a significant house price fall. 2% decrease after a 25% rise in the 2 years prior is pretty much nothing. We will never see pre pandemic prices.

  • @bluceree7312
    @bluceree7312 Рік тому +9

    4:00 "in June 2023, *_only_* 56% of mortgage holders had actually been affected by the recent rise in interest rates". ONLY?
    56% is a large amount, and technically *the majority* of mortgage holders.

    • @ianmarsden8568
      @ianmarsden8568 Рік тому

      Not technically a majority, it is a majority. Just like Brexit.

    • @ecos889
      @ecos889 Рік тому

      I am just grateful my mother is still on a fixed rate and will remain on that for another 15 years which is more than enough time as she will have the mortgage fully paid of in 2 years time if she would have been taken off the fixed rate, it would have been more than enough to have her struggle pay for food and bills to pay off the remainder mortgage, meaning I would have had to step in and give her money monthly to make sure she could afford food and bills which I would have been more than happy to do so.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      @@ianmarsden8568 thats highly debateble. there were a cople of million of us abroad who vote was delayed. we suspect on purpose and were nto counted. also several million people in gibraltar which like it or not is british also voted 95 perent against brexit and 10% of people nevr voted forr soemthing they thought was so stupd that it didnt possibly neeed a vote. so it was prob aless than 40% of 'brits' actually voted brexit. that scos poor education and right wing media bias overall, i.e preying on the less knowledgable, people like farage sticking up for the working class for example yet being like all the other tories and just wanting a profit out of it

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      @@ecos889 if 2 year sleft she could actually have borrowed against th=e value of the house and if its nearly paidoff shes essentially pretty well off compared to people with 20 years left :)

  • @jasonh9518
    @jasonh9518 Рік тому +7

    For most people 1 house = 1 house
    If I wanted to move I'd have to get more indebted to do it, I'd be happy for my house to be worth less if the house I'd like to buy is also less.
    The whole thing is absolutely ridiculous- plenty of people have made plenty of money when is it enough

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      absolutely . fook status basically :) and trhe middle class, all those offensive barriers

  • @MatthewRivers-Davis
    @MatthewRivers-Davis Рік тому +11

    Thanks Tejvan - about as depressing as you could get on a Monday morning 😪 I don't have an axe to grind against the banking sector but I can see how each economic shock or recession has resulted in a direct or indirect recapitalisation of the banking sector. Apart from the 1990s housing crash due to the ERM fall-out (and I'm sure banks benefitted from the repossessions), the 2007-9 sub-prime 'banking crisis' recession resulted in QE being retained by the banks, the Covid crisis resulted in Govt borrowing and QE again distributed upwards to the banks and this inflation crisis will again lead to banks retaining large amounts of disposable income through rate rises above the base rate and homeowners over-paying mortgages to pay down debt, increase equity and potentially get stung by early redemption penalties. Except for a few obscure banks, savings rates are stagnating as banks capitalise on the higher rates after a generation of near 0 interest.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому +2

      interest rates are gong up. banks making more than stocks right now. so good for savers.. trouble is we have no savers cos we all broke ass :)

  • @straightouttacornwall
    @straightouttacornwall Рік тому +2

    This country is gone, soo much greed has created crashes every 10-15 years. If I was looking to invest in a country it wouldn't be the UK. Its not a stable market.

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Рік тому +7

    4% interest on your savings with inflation at 8.7% isn’t increasing your wealth

    • @Stuark54
      @Stuark54 Рік тому

      Nope, I’ve only got 2% on mine. Banks are cashing it in. The cunts!

    • @alistairrobinson3865
      @alistairrobinson3865 Рік тому

      Depends though….. if house prices drop 10% whilst you are getting 4% in savings that’s significantly more house you can buy 1 year in the future vs slightly more expensive groceries

    • @plllot9713
      @plllot9713 Рік тому

      not the first time he says something like that, I mentioned that above and I commented in the past - I much more preferred .25% interest at 2% inflation (and no worrying about isas and interest earnings above 1k to be taxed on) than 4% with 8% inflation where you have to stash all your savings in ISAs which usually have lower interest anyway 😐

    • @jjefferyworboys8138
      @jjefferyworboys8138 Рік тому

      Those without savings have nothing in reserve and will become desperate sellers for those with savings to take advantage of.

    • @alistairrobinson3865
      @alistairrobinson3865 Рік тому

      @@jjefferyworboys8138 yes 100% which is why it would be much fairer to attack inflation with higher taxes in wealthy as opposed to just interest rates that hurt least wealthy

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Рік тому +28

    I don’t think the market will rebalance. If house prices fell by 36% foreign investors and corporations would hoover the properties up for renting.

    • @Grandude77
      @Grandude77 Рік тому +1

      They already have, the top line price will likley be a single digit % down on 2020 but after inflation that equates to a ~30% drop

    • @Stuark54
      @Stuark54 Рік тому +10

      That’s where government policy needs to step in and stop a monopoly effect from happening.

    • @mikeparrott8304
      @mikeparrott8304 Рік тому +4

      Large corporations are already doing it.

    • @nataliam9764
      @nataliam9764 Рік тому +8

      No investor in their right mind would buy in this Economy.

    • @cobbler40
      @cobbler40 Рік тому

      Black rock in the US are buying up property for rent we are usually not far behind.

  • @lesleyrobertson5465
    @lesleyrobertson5465 Рік тому +1

    Is this about house prices falling in London/England or Scotland. I see no change up here in Scotland. Houses are being built next to me and people are able to buy them. If mortgages are expensive and inflation is high how are people able to afford these. Don’t see any repossessions? It’s all confusing

  • @ecos889
    @ecos889 Рік тому +5

    Yeah we need to move our economy where a house is not an investment but a place to live in. We also need to build and convert more abandoned buildings and no longer used office space into apartments and houses and bring back council houses minus the ability to buy the council house from the gov as council houses being a competition vs private renting brings down private rent prices down.
    Also a fall of land prices too will help a lot when it comes to house building too so let's hope I can get a house at 50 also with rent being so high and being working class I see a lot of my family not being able to save a penny due to a huge chunk of income has to go to needs usually around 80-90% even on two incomes. A housing crash would be a first step to being able to have those family members being able to save again. Two incomes at that high by the way is due to them having kids and living in a city of a high rent.

  • @markb1487
    @markb1487 Рік тому +1

    Corruption is everywhere,,no more so than here.. Houses,cars etc etc have ALL been drastically inflated many many times their value.. Deliberately..

  • @ricardosousa11
    @ricardosousa11 Рік тому +5

    The true question is, why would house builders build towards the middle/lower class, when they can simply build towards the luxury and high end market alone, specially at the current cost of the land.

    • @ecos889
      @ecos889 Рік тому

      Quicker sales the cheaper something is the quicker you will find someone to buy a property the more expensive something is the more long it takes to sell something. So you essentially get a higher throughput and quicker sales, which makes mass-producing houses a profitable venture as higher quantity is made quickly. Whilst the 1% do own 80% of the wealth it does not mean they are looking for buying luxury housing all the time and landlords would want to build and buy a lot of cheap houses to keep to rent off as long term you can claw back your profits way faster vs luxury housing as if your luxury house is too expensive for anyone to rent nobody is going to enter as a tenant leaving the house empty.
      In fact Britain does face a huge problem of empty houses for a while because of the rent prices of the properties being too high.
      Also, luxury building materials also have an inherent cost to them as well and may need more expensive builders so people who may be middle class getting interested in starting a property building company may start off with lower-value housing first before moving to luxury as they would not be able to afford the extra cost of materials and expertise so may be more inclined to not build luxury houses.
      Also some areas and cities there would be no point to build luxury housing due to the area being working class and no rich person would want to buy a house in a working-class area meaning the value you are putting into building the luxury property is lost by the area you are building it in.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      @@ecos889 we need to BAN LANDLORDS. ITS OBVIOUS!

    • @ricardosousa11
      @ricardosousa11 Рік тому

      @@ecos889 The average sale in my country is less than 7 days, theres no point in building to low/median class. Foreign Investment groups (like blackrock) buy all the stock, even if the houses are empty they will sell it at a huge profit in 5 years. They did the same to the housing market as they did to the diamond/gold, artificial scarcity.

    • @avancalledrupert5130
      @avancalledrupert5130 Рік тому +1

      They won't.
      I'm literally just a carpenter and drywall sole trader.
      I will only work on new builds for large contractors building luxury flats . The difference is like £3 an HR and I need it.
      Don't know any tradesmen willing to even talk to a normal person about building a normal house.
      It's just not worth the hassle.

    • @tenniskinsella7768
      @tenniskinsella7768 Рік тому

      My daughter can't sell her house

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Рік тому +3

    Yes interest has gone up on savings as people’s savings reduce due to the cost of living

  • @luke9309
    @luke9309 Рік тому +4

    In a high inflation environment you want to be as leveraged as possible. Yes, house prices may drop in real terms, but in nominal terms they will NOT drop.

    • @bangdobrich
      @bangdobrich Рік тому

      While I do get that having inflation essentially pay off your mortgage is the dream, how can one leverage themselves with the current interest rates and possible lack of job security? I have remained a saver long after having my house deposit saved up and haven't taken out a mortgage yet for this reason, I just feel insecure in my income although it keeps growing. Am I wrong? I feel like I've definitely missed out as I could've taken a really low interest rate mortgage at house prices that were 20% lower 3 years ago.

    • @luke9309
      @luke9309 Рік тому

      @@bangdobrich its actually good to borrow during high interest periods because other potential buyers are also facing the same interest rate pressures which reduces borrowing capacity. You can then enjoy interest rate cuts on the way down as the economy falters and borrowing capacities increase which will boost your home value while your principle remains fixed.
      A key point to remember is that wages are also increasing rapidly which boosts house prices. i. Real terms, wages are negative but in nominal terms they are positive.
      Another key point as you point out is job security. Certain jobs are less cyclinical than others when it comes to economic boom bust cycles. But, economists have the inflation / unemployment trade offs dialled in now, after learnings from past financial shocks like the GFC. I do not think they will stomach high unemployment to bring down inflation, but would rather let inflation run hotter for longer to slowly bring it down with the lowest level of unemployment required. This is evident in my opinion from the causal treatment of inflation to date. But, this is the judgement call one has to make.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      @@bangdobrich build one.. seriously. 1/4 of the price to buil it yourself

    • @tenniskinsella7768
      @tenniskinsella7768 Рік тому

      Having trouble affording houses I other countries too

    • @bangdobrich
      @bangdobrich Рік тому

      @@PazLeBon Would you recommend using the government help to build scheme on a plot of land and how would that cost so little with labour costs and material costs still elevated?

  • @mrscreamer379
    @mrscreamer379 Рік тому +15

    Housing is a competition. When house prices fall, the instant they are affordable, people will buy again. They won't keep falling. The demand hasn't gone away. There will not be cheap housing in the future. The price is always what the market will tolerate. The way to get on the property ladder is to earn more than other people. Its that simple.

    • @Grandude77
      @Grandude77 Рік тому +1

      Simple in principle, perhaps.
      Intervention and market regulation is required to make the changes that would benefit the majority. Those most hurt thi are those more likely to vote against the change.

    • @Stuark54
      @Stuark54 Рік тому +2

      I see housing being a big thing in the next GE. Majority of young voters are going to want affordable housing and whoever promises them that will win.

    • @mikeparrott8304
      @mikeparrott8304 Рік тому

      ​@James-mb3je
      Also good in principle but it wouldn't work. How would you regulate the markets?

    • @RTORC78
      @RTORC78 Рік тому

      Any big investment is a question of risk. Uncertainty is the problem.

    • @mrscreamer379
      @mrscreamer379 Рік тому

      @@Stuark54 The lib dems promised free university educations. A promise doesn't mean anything.

  • @katalinpuskaskhetani6225
    @katalinpuskaskhetani6225 Рік тому +4

    Thank you Tejvan for this very informative video. I am just wondering if you could give us some guidance on what sort of financial/ policy changes brought the UK interest rates down this drastically in 1992? The other big change happened in 2009 and we all know the reasons for this. Is there any chance that the very high and volatile pre-1992 rates will be back again?

  • @stumac869
    @stumac869 Рік тому +8

    5% interest rates are not high, they're normal.

    • @007kash007
      @007kash007 Рік тому +2

      No they aren't compared to inflation and wages

    • @JSMarsden
      @JSMarsden Рік тому

      They aren't normal. 30 years high they were at 15% yes, but that was when house prices were only 4x Salary. Now, the rate is 6% but house prices are 9x salary, and so the 6% rate we are currently seeing is pretty much exactly the same (if not worse) as the 15% interest rates people had in the 80s. A lot of older people dont realise how difficult it is now with the wage vs house price gap and the impact it has.

  • @WSMITHify
    @WSMITHify Рік тому +5

    As a landlord I’m selling because of the increased regulations making it more difficult to evict problem tenants, and the the EPC demands, if the proposal to only allow rental property at level B is brought into law it will kill the rental market as it would cost around £20 to £30 thousand pounds to bring the average property to that level, this I believe is the plan to bring the housing stock under the control of big business, Blackrock et al

    • @Witnessmoo
      @Witnessmoo Рік тому

      I’ve been struggling with this myself. I really don’t want to make my tenants homeless though… one has a toddler same age as my son and it bothers me a lot to make them homeless. I’m losing money in that property…

    • @markb1487
      @markb1487 Рік тому +1

      Private rented properties are far far too high..They are not affordable..

    • @Miks2092
      @Miks2092 Рік тому

      Was always the plan, allow one generation to build property wealth. To the detriment of the next generation. Then wipe out the smaller landlords and consolidate. Then you have captured at least a generation of renters. Also you have secured a constant tax payer subsidy in the form of housing benefit. The only answer is to get back to where we were pre Thatcher in terms of housing mix. Short of a revolution, it ain't happening. The banks, the hedge funds and the big landlords ain't going to allow it.

  • @RTORC78
    @RTORC78 Рік тому

    House prices should be falling. UK housing is appalling in quality. Either old houses with mould and damp issues or new homes with access problems and tiny overlooked gardens.

  • @mikeparrott8304
    @mikeparrott8304 Рік тому +6

    Interest rates will kill buyers off ,they will go into double digits in my opinion.

    • @FlyingFun.
      @FlyingFun. Рік тому +1

      I would love that, mortgage paid off and retired with savings,
      I paid 17.5% on my mortgage and houses were 8 times average wage at that time.
      I REALLY need to get my savings working and interest rates would help enormously.

    • @MookMineola
      @MookMineola Рік тому

      Interest rates won't be increased next month : bet ya. The B of E can't wait to put them down again. The great free-money experiment has proved a total failure ( unless of course you bought in 2009 and sold in 2021 ) . But for everyone else the ultra-low interest rates , i.e free money has made things difficult to say the least . Those blokes in the B of E are just a bunch of over-paid idiots as far as I can tell . Even Joe Bloggs on You-Tube knew inflation was coming a year B4 the so-called experts .

    • @mikeparrott8304
      @mikeparrott8304 Рік тому

      @@FlyingFun. I'm in the same boat .

    • @Notorious46
      @Notorious46 Рік тому

      @@FlyingFun. 'houses were 8 times average wage at that time' what year was this?

    • @mikeparrott8304
      @mikeparrott8304 Рік тому +3

      @Notorious46
      The worst time I can see on record ,is 79 ,the average wage was 3584
      The average house was 18.5 k which is just over 5% , he may have purchased in an expensive area which would account for the higher cost to wage ratio.
      So late 70's I would say
      FYI average uk earnings 2023- 29,588 average house cost 286,000
      Which is 9x the average salary. Add food and gas against wages as a ratio and you can see the problem for people today.

  • @mrpickles3479
    @mrpickles3479 Рік тому +1

    Falling house prices will see sellers stop selling, holding on to their properties until prices go up again. Restricted supply will prevent large falls in prices.

    • @edc1569
      @edc1569 Рік тому

      why if you're up sizing?

    • @jjefferyworboys8138
      @jjefferyworboys8138 Рік тому

      Correct, developers will also cut back or stop building and the shortage will be exacerbated.

  • @AM_o2000
    @AM_o2000 Рік тому +5

    I think you're the only person I've seen acknowledging the capital gain that most mortgage holders will have made.

  • @mrmeldrew693
    @mrmeldrew693 Рік тому +6

    If house prices drop massively, will they recalculate our council tax bills?! They steal about £260 a month from my already taxed income and I don't own a castle.

    • @nataliam9764
      @nataliam9764 Рік тому +1

      I used to pay €40 yearly in Italy on council tax. British people are seriously getting ripped of.

    • @roberthuntley1090
      @roberthuntley1090 Рік тому +1

      No, council tax is based on what the value of the property would have been in April 1991 (my house wasn't even built on that date).
      Crazy system, but the politicians are scared of the public reaction if they try and revalue the bands with cities like London all moving up much faster than other areas of the country.

    • @mrmeldrew693
      @mrmeldrew693 Рік тому +1

      @roberthuntley1090 I know, it's ludicrous. My boss lives in a house that he has massively extended, in a posh area. His house is currently worth quite abit more than mine, but he pays less council tax than me.
      He also got the recent £150 'cost of living' payments that I was judged too rich to get.......

    • @roberthuntley1090
      @roberthuntley1090 Рік тому

      @@mrmeldrew693 Were the extensions built while your boss lived there? Extensions don't count for council tax until the house is next sold, so that might explain it. I read somewhere that as part of the council searches during a house sale, they review any building regulation certification and use that to decide whether to review the banding or not. Might be a trap for the new buyer (e.g. your move into a Band D, and x months down the road it turns into an E).

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому +1

      Tory TAX, Y'ALL VOTED FOR IT

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Рік тому +3

    Doesn’t lower prices with higher interest rates keep in the same place as higher prices and lower interest rates ?

    • @mikeparrott8304
      @mikeparrott8304 Рік тому

      Yes

    • @nataliam9764
      @nataliam9764 Рік тому

      Money wise, yes. But the second situation is very risky as it’s unsustainable long term and the original amount borrowed won’t change by any circumstances.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      if people save for interest rates they are not spending.. bad for the economy

  • @minidevil3313
    @minidevil3313 Рік тому +1

    The house bubble needs to pop

  • @realitykicksin8755
    @realitykicksin8755 Рік тому

    Its a turkeyshoot on all the variable interest mortgaged house “owners”. Can they pay negative equity?

  • @Nernst96
    @Nernst96 Рік тому

    America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..

  • @dolphine675
    @dolphine675 Рік тому +1

    That sounded like you used to be a weatherman , sunny with a chance or rain wind in places and temperatures in the typical range for this time of the century lol

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Рік тому +3

    You have to pay down your mortgage with a lump sum if you can nobody has a spare £500 a month

  • @george6977
    @george6977 Рік тому +1

    2:03 What percentage of new businesses survive 25 years? Most people should stick to buying a house, stocks and government bonds rather than start a business.

  • @Ryan-wx1bi
    @Ryan-wx1bi Рік тому +6

    3 years and counting thay UA-camrs have been calling for a housing crash. Any day now, right guys?

    • @Samuels691
      @Samuels691 Рік тому

      Down almost 4>% as reported today. Rate rises take time to feed through

    • @Ryan-wx1bi
      @Ryan-wx1bi Рік тому

      @@Samuels691 what's down 4? One city? The medium sale price? Total sales? In my state/city, everything is up

    • @Samuels691
      @Samuels691 Рік тому

      @@Ryan-wx1bi I’m in south east and prices are clearly falling.

    • @Ryan-wx1bi
      @Ryan-wx1bi Рік тому

      @@Samuels691 just looked at the southeast data. Nope, you're making stuff up. It dropped for a month earlier this year, but turned back up recently

    • @OGFury
      @OGFury Рік тому

      South East of England (assume you are instead commenting on US data which will differ)

  • @prrrromotiongiven1075
    @prrrromotiongiven1075 Рік тому +1

    Cheaper homes won't do much good for new buyers if mortgages become impossible to obtain and cash buyers are the only ones that can get on the ladder. You can except price falls to mean landlords buying up an even greater share of housing...

  • @Anasteroiddestroyer
    @Anasteroiddestroyer Рік тому

    You talk about loans not being as risky as 2008 but they were risky because of the high prices and low interest rates. Banks obviously did not stress test 6-8% mortgages rates in their applications. We now have a load of people with big mortgages they can't afford.

  • @matthewdancz9152
    @matthewdancz9152 Рік тому

    I might be able to buy one. On a serious note however, home values have skyrocketted because of speculative loan offerings. When it crashes, and the housing market will crash, many thousands of people are going to lose billions if not trillions of dollars in value, and be stuck with loans that are worth more than the value of their home. Speculative lending is by far the worst legal financial scam perpetrated on the people of the world.

  • @kevinu.k.7042
    @kevinu.k.7042 Рік тому

    An enlightening video.
    So much to think about.
    Excellent - Thank you.

  • @FlyingFun.
    @FlyingFun. Рік тому +2

    Interest rates are NOT HIGH, they are average, The last 10 years of zero rates was the problem.

    • @mikeparrott8304
      @mikeparrott8304 Рік тому +1

      True, however adjusting for inflation the actual rate compared to say the 80's is the equivalent of 30% .

    • @francesbrown6990
      @francesbrown6990 Рік тому

      ​@@mikeparrott8304yes, and high in relation to stagnant wage growth and an astronomical rise in the cost of living.

    • @jasejj
      @jasejj Рік тому +1

      They are relatively high. People are being caught out after assuming the rates would continue at 0% forever and overstretched. This will cause a correction. It won't last long but it cannot but produce a number of panic sellers.

  • @hayfield11
    @hayfield11 Рік тому

    I thought I saw an economic growth graphic with Japan being the lowest, UK second lowest, I don't remember the rest. OECD or G7? I can't find it again.

  • @benjamincross50
    @benjamincross50 Рік тому

    Very informative as always, much appreciate graph data (even if I see it didn't start at zero),

  • @peteroffpist1621
    @peteroffpist1621 Рік тому

    Crash is a bit harsh. There will be a adjustment for sure, some winn some lose. But do agree with you that some will be squished.

  • @ianmarsden8568
    @ianmarsden8568 Рік тому +1

    At the end of the day, like it or not property is an asset. Its an asset which is in demand for a number of reasons beyond these sort term pressures. If I were to ask you if house prices are likely to rise or fall over the next 10 years what would you say?

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      an asset since thatcherism. it needs to stop

  • @philipvjones397
    @philipvjones397 Рік тому

    Apparently, the federal reserve is 0/248 for inflation and gdp predctions since they started giving them so, basically, any central bank predictions aren't worth the paper they;re written on. I doubt the banks do any better.

  • @user-sl6gq2zv3r
    @user-sl6gq2zv3r Рік тому

    Can not wait to see it crash it down

  • @lesleyrobertson5465
    @lesleyrobertson5465 Рік тому

    If the economy is soo bad then how are people affording the homes being built near me. I don’t get it.

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Рік тому +3

    Historically interest rates should be 5-6%

  • @tonyburgessbonnie2395
    @tonyburgessbonnie2395 Рік тому +1

    House prices wont fall as people wont sell they will stay put.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      thy have mortgages that they wont be able to afford

  • @IIC-GusBadran
    @IIC-GusBadran Рік тому

    Could you please expand on Productive Capital? I'm assuming the the effect of interest rate on industry. Thank you. Gus

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      productivity is key. so businesses borrowing money to invest and expand suffer because they sto plending that capital and/or lenderscan affod the interest

  • @BarryMann
    @BarryMann Рік тому

    So if you can buy now at a 10% discount (distressed sale) why would you NOT do that?

    • @FlyingFun.
      @FlyingFun. Рік тому +1

      10% on what though?
      prices went UP by a LOT more than that in the last few years, affordablity means prices should be at what they were in 2019 ro even earlier, but that probably wont happen,
      I looked at buying one to rent out and the repayments meant I needed to change the current rent on that house from £450 to £850, no way that would wash so it made the house price needed to get that to work would have to drop 40 to 50%

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      @@FlyingFun. i said ban landlords 20 years ago and i was right

  • @davejohnston5158
    @davejohnston5158 Рік тому

    affordability is being tested without interest rate rises with energy and transport cost likely to continue rising and general inflation not being counteracted by general pay increases

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      energy pricesshould come down as we get greener. slower with tories, would have been self sustainable now if had been labour for 13years

    • @davejohnston5158
      @davejohnston5158 Рік тому

      @@PazLeBon Its hard to tell with the tories going all soft on us. Its hard to tell who would have the most socialist/globalist policy. I thought no-one could cock the economy up like Brown but Sunak managed it!

  • @myturkishlife1777
    @myturkishlife1777 Рік тому

    Sold my house in the uk, bought/built a house in Turkey and getting 25% on savings and retired at 50...
    I can live off the interest on £40k quite easily over here...
    I like the UK but i hate the wsy the government has treated me in the past and how the good Brits are being treated now..
    Have a great day everyone 👍

    • @plllot9713
      @plllot9713 Рік тому

      you can't be for real mate xD you do realize the inflation rate in turkey is at 40% and with earning 25% interest you're realistically LOSING 15% of that 40k each year? if that situation kept going for the next 3 years you'd need 80k to be able to live off the interest at the same level. if the inflation drops down, your interest drops down too, and again, you'll need more capital to be able to live off interest earned.
      your problem is once you cashed out in the UK and your estate loses enough value for the Turkish inflation you won't be so well off there anymore and you definitely will be f....ed in the UK. it's a one way road only I'm afraid.

    • @myturkishlife1777
      @myturkishlife1777 Рік тому

      @@plllot9713 😁 I see where you are coming from, in reality I get around 22,000 Turkish lira every month, I need around 10,000 to live here every month, so at the moment my capital going up...
      Yes if you go out to eat a bit more or service the car etc then you can spend 15,000 tl but it usually is less per month than the interest you get every month...
      Cheers 👍

    • @myturkishlife1777
      @myturkishlife1777 Рік тому

      @@plllot9713 hi , also the house prices are going crazy here, it cost me £150,000 to build it in 2016 I had an offer last year for £600,000 ...
      Na I will stay here, it's a great place to live 👍

  • @alankennedy2385
    @alankennedy2385 Рік тому

    house prices aremt going down its just london 10% on a London house is something like 50%-70% of the rest ofvthe country bringing the overall average down where i live has gone up by 20% in the last 12months

  • @jasejj
    @jasejj Рік тому

    I always find the panic in the South amusing. In some areas of the country prices have not rocketed since 2008, indeed where I live they've barely kept up with inflation overall and the current correction is seeing them return to much the same level in absolute terms they actually were in 2008. House buying in the North East is not an investment, it is what it should be - a house.
    Currently the 5% the bank is providing exceeds anything the housing market will over the next couple of years. There won't be a 25% crash, but two years of zero growth vs 10% interest on the cash still equals a crash in relative terms - and it's already worse than that.

    • @timealone7906
      @timealone7906 Рік тому

      Cool, nobody wants to live where you are and after living in Lincoln for a few months I can understand that.

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Рік тому +1

    Aren’t the chancellor and governor of the BoE hoping for a recession and lower spending as mortgage repayments rise.

    • @economicshelp
      @economicshelp  Рік тому +1

      hoping for lower inflation, recession is kind of likely consequence.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      lower spending is NEVER good

  • @plllot9713
    @plllot9713 Рік тому +1

    it's not the first time you mention higher interest rates will make savers earn more on their savings. let me break it down to you. a few years back you had 100k in savings. you got your 0.25% interest. after a year your 100k was worth some 1.75% less (2% inflation minus 0.25% interest earned). you didn't have to worry about the capital gain tax.
    nowadays you've got 100k in a bank. you earn 4%. you have to pay 20% on 3k earned above the 1k alowance. so you effectively earned 3.4% but the inflation is 8% so overall you lose 4.6% of your savings.
    so, yeah, technically you earn more on your savings but are still much worse off than when you earned close to nothing. you're 3 times worse off.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      WITH THAST MUCH CASH IN THE BANK. FOOK IT

  • @alexd5637
    @alexd5637 Рік тому

    Nor even Peter Schiff predicted the 0% to last for so long 🙂

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Рік тому +1

    Won’t a large fall in house prices affect the banks. As the mortgages are part of there assets ?

    • @mikeparrott8304
      @mikeparrott8304 Рік тому

      Not with Higher interest rates

    • @nataliam9764
      @nataliam9764 Рік тому

      The amount borrowed doesn’t change. Home owners will still have to pay for the original amount the borrowed plus higher interest rates.

  • @Loundsify
    @Loundsify Рік тому

    A guy i know at work renewed last week and his mortgage has gone up £800 extea per month.

  • @peterwhimster
    @peterwhimster Рік тому

    Interest rates are not elevated that are back to normal.

  • @tommyrunner
    @tommyrunner Рік тому

    well pointed

  • @garyb455
    @garyb455 Рік тому +1

    Supply and demand says the prices wont fall far

    • @JimBob-vg2og
      @JimBob-vg2og Рік тому

      Yeah the banks want to buy up housing to add to their portfolios as well

  • @myriri3687
    @myriri3687 Рік тому

    Housing crash housing crash! We want a housing crash!

  • @LouisBassamson
    @LouisBassamson Рік тому +1

    Let crash went far far what we think it's crazy high we work and we can't afford to rent a proper property in London the landlord become too greedy and animals

  • @madma11
    @madma11 Рік тому +6

    I would honestly love a housing crash. Honeslty love to see it. Ive been waiting a decade for this. Its so frustrating ha

    • @andrewtaylor6737
      @andrewtaylor6737 Рік тому +1

      Don't worry it's coming, but the sheep still believe it won't crash !
      The pain hasn't even started yet, some are still in the honeymoon period.

    • @Loundsify
      @Loundsify Рік тому +1

      It's already happening

    • @Loundsify
      @Loundsify Рік тому

      ​@@andrewtaylor6737a guy I know at work his mortgage has gone up £800 extra a per month!

    • @BarryMann
      @BarryMann Рік тому

      @@Loundsify in real terms it has

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      ive heard the same things since the 80s

  • @howardhdavidson
    @howardhdavidson Рік тому

    Prices in London aren’t dropping.

  • @avancalledrupert5130
    @avancalledrupert5130 Рік тому

    But interest rates going up makes the house fall useless to 1st time buyers.
    Instead of paying grand a month for a 200k house be paying grand a month for a 140k house
    Im so angry about the interest rate increase. I had just saved my deposit now i can't buy because interest rates are to high. Don't give a shit about a piissy bit of interest gains on savings. Its not enough to give a shit about. Increase in cost of borrowing is enormous.

  • @grolfe3210
    @grolfe3210 Рік тому

    You just keep getting it wrong!
    First error. At the start you predict house price drop tied in with a recession drawing comparisons with 2008 and 1991. Our economy is not in recession and will not be.
    Second error. You (again) look at average house prices instead of FTB house prices. While the average house price has risen by about 80% from the low of 2009, this firstly is not a vast rise, given that half of it is a correction from the 2008 drop and historically it was not unusual for prices to double in a few years back in the 80s. I bought a 1 bed flat in 2008 for £125k and a similar flat in 2021 for £128k. FTB property (which builders are now catering for much more) is still very affordable.
    The third error is that you do not consider the background and why we have high inflation and high interest rates. Inflation rate is falling and will drop hugely over coming months. Interest rates will then also drop.
    Yes at the moment the high rates have cooled the market. But prices will not change significantly as those who can hang on to sell will hang on and get their price next year. There may be a few bargains with panic sales but not much volume.
    The factors are simply not there for a crash. You just keep ignoring this in your predictions.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому +1

      lol of course its in a recession m8, its lost more wealth in 12 years than it did for 200 years :*

    • @grolfe3210
      @grolfe3210 Рік тому

      @@PazLeBon We do not have a recession just because you think we do. The economy has to shrink for 3 months. It has not so no recession. FACT.

  • @user-vc5zt9ci12
    @user-vc5zt9ci12 Рік тому +1

    All rent seeking / passive activities should be banned.
    Parasitic, worthless, negative productivity... awful for society

    • @harleywilson4951
      @harleywilson4951 Рік тому

      What do you do for work pal?

    • @user-vc5zt9ci12
      @user-vc5zt9ci12 Рік тому +1

      @harleywilson4951 currently a firmware developer in life sciences, previously electronics and software design, mainly in aerospace, mil and auto....
      ...hence my outlook. I don't blame people for playing the game by its current rules - it's just not useful.

  • @cobbler40
    @cobbler40 Рік тому +2

    Long term property will be a good investment against inflation

  • @Dr.Sheffield
    @Dr.Sheffield Рік тому

    Thanks

  • @dobias28
    @dobias28 Рік тому

    Step 1: Disassociate mortgages from housing.

    • @mikeparrott8304
      @mikeparrott8304 Рік тому

      What would that look like practically?
      Cash only with a big price drop?

  • @mehranfarh9457
    @mehranfarh9457 Рік тому

    Great video

  • @susannnico
    @susannnico Рік тому +1

    The greater the automated income you can build, the freer you will become. Taking the first step is the hardest, but 5 houses later living off automated income since July 6, 2016. You’ve got to start taking steps to achieve your goal.

    • @susannnico
      @susannnico Рік тому

      Wow!!! I know *ROCH DUNGCA-SCHREIBER* and I have been growing with her since 2017. Her expertise has been the best for my financial journey. I have created a passive income over the years and life feels really better and easy for me. I feel so delighted to read these good reviews about her

  • @jabbadabbajew6035
    @jabbadabbajew6035 Рік тому

    It won’t affect me. The house is paid off and we banged all our spare cash into ISAs. The monthly interest is high enough now to pay most of the monthly bills. We saw it coming during Covid. You can’t print free money forever.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      til they crash too :) hmm, maks me consider gold under my pillow haha

    • @jabbadabbajew6035
      @jabbadabbajew6035 Рік тому

      @@PazLeBon lol luckily ours are cash ISA’s so the bank has to go bust first, but to counter that we have several bank accounts ready so we just transfer the maximum insured amount into each one. Tested it already and the transfer is instant 👍

  • @Witnessmoo
    @Witnessmoo Рік тому +1

    I work full time, save a lot and invest. I could choose to have a much higher quality of life and have two more holidays a year, but a much nicer car etc but I don’t do that, I save and invest as much as I can - in the past I put some investment into rentals. Now, they are untenable. I really really don’t want to sell the rentals and make my tenants homeless. One them them has a toddler same age as my son. I have held off selling because I feel bad but I know I’m screwing myself over here because the cost from rates, and the Osborne tax changes is going to destroy years of progress. For one of the rentals I am making a loss! I feel like the government has forced me to become a charity. I don’t know what to do. My cousin is a full time landlord and he advises me to be ruthless - sell and look after my own family first. This government should not be creating these conditions. It will be so damaging from every perspective.

  • @JimBob-vg2og
    @JimBob-vg2og Рік тому +1

    I listen in x2 speed, it’s more tolerable

  • @888ssss
    @888ssss Рік тому

    im only part time. if i bought a house i would have to work full time, and i dont want to work full time.

  • @rajomshanati
    @rajomshanati Рік тому

    Normal people can't afford home loans less money out going too much

  • @cbb9580
    @cbb9580 Рік тому +1

    Let this overinflated economy ho bust cost of living in Canada is off the rail keep raising the interest rates stop this inflationary death sentence to responsible Canadians the people who caused and drove prices higher were the irresponsible listen to your realtors borrow cheap money and pay way to much for housing and everything else nobody twisted their arms🤡

  • @rajomshanati
    @rajomshanati Рік тому

    Uk need 1 million new homes to balance prices richer going richer around London they need to expand London

  • @drscopeify
    @drscopeify Рік тому +2

    I have a funny feeling that Inflation is about to wake up big time. OIL is at $85. Stocks on a bull craze. US and Canada Q3 forecast for GDP are running red hot again UK and EU are just behind by a few months perhaps.

    • @Loundsify
      @Loundsify Рік тому

      Dotcom 2.0 coming in stocks.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      @@Loundsify some stocks will be so high in value they can buy all the other stocks too :/

  • @Notorious46
    @Notorious46 Рік тому

    You'd think the million + net migration into the UK might figure into your reasoning? I fail to see how such a huge, huge increase in people requiring a home would have any impact on the.. price of a home. Because famously demand does nothing to the price of a house. Do they (economists) have some way of working around this or are they just cowards?

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      just need to build more houses that are under 100k.. it isnt any special thinking required, its just a huge con for realtors and rich folk

  • @mrcf20
    @mrcf20 Рік тому

    At the end, end user pay all the bill. Which mean renter suffer

  • @simongrey5058
    @simongrey5058 Рік тому

    The house builders need to be forced to build and to hell with their 40% profit margin. What other industry has that sort of profit on a single product?!

    • @ecos889
      @ecos889 Рік тому

      It's also planning permission, really, though if government removed VAT from building materials for a few years, loosened planning permission and set up contracts to build more council housing that would solve most of the issues. Removal of VAT would increase margins to get builders to build houses for cheaper, more council housing will force the private sector to reduce rents to compete with council housing and also government contracts of building more housing will reduce house value as landlords will be more wary of purchasing housing as investments to rent off due to decreased in average rental prices.
      Gov ain't gonna do that though of course, since they are trickle-down economic people. Which trickle-down translates to the 1% hoarding all the wealth to themselves and trying to extract the remaining 20% of the wealth they don't have from the 99% to the 1%.

  • @maskmanfive3774
    @maskmanfive3774 Рік тому

    It's the chicken coming home to roost

  • @kellywalker4494
    @kellywalker4494 Рік тому +1

    Goodness me, this guy is a doom and gloom merchant. I bet he’s great fun at parties. UK is obsessed with property and at least outside London UK property is cheap compared to other countries. Salaries need to catch up, people in uk are under paid and over taxed. Property will be fine in the long run.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      don talk ridiculous

  • @cbb9580
    @cbb9580 Рік тому

    Cant wait maybe I can afford one if the prices drop by half the inflated realestate market needs a drastic quantitative price correction it's ridiculously overpriced RAISE THE FN INTEREST RATES IF IT LOOKS LIKE SHIT SMELLS LIKE SHIT THEN ITS SHIT 💩

  • @Snugggg
    @Snugggg Рік тому

    cash buying landlords will continue to expand their portfolios at the cost of the rest of the population and wider economy.

  • @Happytruth
    @Happytruth Рік тому

    Always makes me laugh when we keep talking about build more houses because you can’t build more houses forever and ever, why not start looking at other options.

  • @Dee-w5y
    @Dee-w5y Рік тому

    I'm thoroughly enjoying the panic I'm seeing lately in real estate. 2024, and 2025 will be very interesting considering all the negative news and attention home values have been receiving. YoY price de lines will continue for over a decade. God bless, America.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      only it clearly did not

  • @serenitycoastUK
    @serenitycoastUK Рік тому

    Pay more for less. you will just get cash buyers coming in and squeeze those who are leverages to the tits. we have too many people not enough houses. Houses may go down a little bit but not crash. we have world wide buyers.

  • @alexp8924
    @alexp8924 Рік тому

    Low interest rates doesn’t make bonds soar. Its the other way around. Overpaying during high inflation is also a horrible idea. Inflation is 10% your interest is maybe 5-6% plus you are tying your wealth to illiquid depreciating asset. Horrible advice.

  • @davidcamraj3303
    @davidcamraj3303 Рік тому +1

    it will always come down to supply and demand, simple as!!

    • @scazz007
      @scazz007 Рік тому +9

      Affordability?

    • @Stuark54
      @Stuark54 Рік тому +10

      That’s what every landlord says but house prices and rent prices have reached their limit because people’s wages can no longer keep up. If interest rates go up then people will lose their houses which will increase supply and drive down prices. The bubble is going to burst. Best to get out now.

    • @andrewkelly8696
      @andrewkelly8696 Рік тому +3

      It’s impossible to have demand if the potential purchaser can not fund the purchase, houses are simply mortgaged backed financial instruments that you personally consume with a ongoing maintenance cost, it’s the affordability and availability of credit that underwrites the market for housing, prices will have to meet a price level which has affordable demand dynamics, the reality is only just starting to sink in, normalisation of interest rates was inevitable at some point. Value does not exist until you can convert it into hard currency, we have buyers exhaustion.

    • @MarKeMu125
      @MarKeMu125 Рік тому +1

      And demand is down? Certainly at these prices anyway

    • @WhichDoctor1
      @WhichDoctor1 Рік тому +1

      if housing is treated as a commodity yes. If housing is treated as a public service, and really what more basic need do people have than a place to live, then housing can be provided affordably and securely to those who need it without being at the mercy of Capricious market forces

  • @theonh9365
    @theonh9365 Рік тому

    Did it crash yet?

  • @antoniopalmero4063
    @antoniopalmero4063 Рік тому

    Not gonna happen .

  • @RandyPelletier
    @RandyPelletier Рік тому +4

    The housing prices are going up faster than any working person could save. I feel exceptionally lucky I started investing in my early 40s and consistently compounded my income to create more cash flow. I grew to a 7 figure well-diversified portfolio having exposure to different prolific investments mainly blue chip stocks, bonds, precious metals, and high yield dividend funds. ever grateful to Trisha Jean Webb my F.A... Now house and cars all paid off and no other debt.

    • @craigrussell2045
      @craigrussell2045 Рік тому

      I think real estate agents and appraisers are also trying to keep the housing prices high because they make more from commission percentage.

    • @lucyAngletont
      @lucyAngletont Рік тому

      If banks can't withstand the bubble crash then maybe they shouldn't have been handing out expensive mortgages that caused the bubble.

    • @CliffWarrensmith
      @CliffWarrensmith Рік тому

      I'm hoping for the housing market crash. I did look up your FA and I'm impressed with the reviews, very remarkable with solid accreditation. I hope she is open to assist me.

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому +1

      i think people worying about paying thier mortages right now are not fkn nterested in your stock portfolio. in fact id say it was dam insensitive

    • @PazLeBon
      @PazLeBon Рік тому

      @@craigrussell2045 its part of the countries wealth estimate.. the value of housing.. and also many politicians own real estate companies and rental agents etc. its thier interst to raise them and totally against te publics interest. hence we still build luxury but invite russians and other rich foreignors in to buy them. not poorer people who can only afford an affordable housetho. iTs borderline nazi when you lookat it closely

  • @garyhowtobluetoothjblheadp3583

    Let it crash - teach the greedy subscribers a lesson as far as I’m concerned?!

  • @JenniferA886
    @JenniferA886 Рік тому +5

    One nuke from Russia / Belarus and it’s game over…

    • @george6977
      @george6977 Рік тому +6

      You will not have to worry about paying your mortgage then.

    • @ljonata
      @ljonata Рік тому +2

      No need. The US has been turning the UK into a mere and harmless colony.

  • @DamianCrain
    @DamianCrain Рік тому

    Once a migrant moves in your home goes down hill in value