How much does immigration affect house prices? I didn't have time to go into detail here. This video ua-cam.com/video/Hy2smgYvnco/v-deo.html explains the link. (There is some, but magnitude disputed)
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets
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It's not about them interest rates though is it. Houses cost less relevant to wages so even though interest rates were higher, it was overall a better gig than what the youth are forced to do today, facts. If a house was 40k but your salary was 20k, can you see how that's different to a house being 300k and your salary being 30-50k and more today?
Great video thanks! Although, I think you’re mostly wrong about immigration. I think it’s one of the main key contributing factors to house price increases.
@@jjefferyworboys8138 what you have to remember is it takes far less for a man to be happy. She could have everything she thinks she wants and still be miserable. Guys can be a lot happier with their lives.
As long as demand significantly exceeds supply prices will not fall in absolute terms. With a rise in wages in real terms prices are unlikely to fall even in real terms. It really is as simple as that. We have a very large shortfall in demand and thanks in part to net migration, we are seeing rising demand. As for the Govt.s plan to build 1.5m new homes over the next 5 years - it has absolutely no chance of succeeding.
Not to mention it isn’t even close to enough to match population growth needs. We added over 700k people to the population last year more than double the planned house building per year.
Don't blame migrant labour for deliberate immigration policies practiced by both Labour and Tory govts. to ensure a steady stream of cheap labour, "free movement" in EU aims for same hypermobile cheap labour. At same time, govts favour high Asset prices in property market( mortgaged persons politically pre-occupied by " dull compulsion of economic survival") and high profits fir banks etc.
😂😂 demand only created by the bank of England interest rates , so low interest rates will flood the market with cheap money , so demand only determined and controlled by how much money bank of England want to allow to tge market
One thing to consider also with more people going onto higher rates over the next year or so is people also coming down from the highs of 5-6% who fixed in for 2 years.
Down versus gold considerably in that period. The deed on my old 1895 Victorian 5 bed semi in Kent showed it first sold for 90 gold sovereigns. So at a time of sound money and industrial wealth, it was £45000 in today’s money. It still has a long way to go to equalise
It's about inequality. As long as average monthly earnings have semblance of an affordability relationship to monthly housing cost (rent or mortgage)... it won't make a difference who owns the asset. Get ready for property ownership status to be the deciding factor in your economic fortunes... haves vs. have-nots.
It's also about younger generations comfort with debt. An average 20 year old nowadays would think nothing of paying 20-30% on top of the OTR price of a car if it was on monthly payment terms, same for the latest phones. Older generations just didn't have that element of easy credit at the same stage of their life. You ask the average Gen Zer what their monthly outgoings are and more importantly WHAT they spend their money on. It will make you want to cry with disbelief and how financially reckless many of them are.
@manvbees I agree, but just look how the entire world is marketed to them. It's not their fault. Any boomer who paid a year's salary for a house in 1969 won't understand.
House prices when we’re talking actual transactions have fallen by about 10% in cities. It’s a buyers market out there but many sellers are too belligerent to lower their asking prices.
Britisher pals, be advised that rural and suburban housing in Japan is way cheaper than UK. At 190 yen to the pound and a low bank rate it a case of fill your boots. A detached house in suburban Japan is about 20% of what you'd pay in the south of England. That's one-fifth, not 20% lower. Jack, the Japan Alps Brit
The Issue in the UK is the change from a manufacturing econony which was spread across Britain, to sevice economy centered in London and the home counties. If predictions become reality, then AI will have a major impact on service industries like finance, research, law, and medicine. Also the preference for using inancial services based in London will decline, because the arrangements with the EU and UK are about to end.
I visited Netherland and found the country richer than UK and also found less asylum , immigrant, stabbing and rubbish on the roads. The house prices looked cheaper than the UK ( £1 mil property would be £650k in Netherlands). I dont know about the salary in banking, finance and IT sector.
In my area there are a lot of buy to let and buy to holiday let properties coming on the market and they are not shifting that easily. Labour have announced a new Renters Rights Bill and there is a crackdown on the business rates/holiday let loophole. The writing is on the wall for landlords with greater regulation and capital gains tax coming down the line. Many are looking at their property holdings closely and feeling that gains in capital value are now looking unlikely. On the other side of the ledger, s21 regulations, proposed decent home standard costs and sharp rises in maintenance costs have made the investment unattractive. 2 year bonds are easily available at 4.5% which in many cases will exceed net yields without the headaches of managing residential property. What this means for property values in anyones guess, it doesn't seem to be a particularly rational market!
I've seen a deep-dive analysis of the U.K. housing market vs. the stock market and the short version is that without state subsidies housing is significantly less attractive investment than an all world stock index. And that is a problem: many people still hang on to the idea that 'bricks and mortar' are the best bet, mainly thanks to multiple governments trying their best to jack up house prices, but now that has reversed somewhat it's going to be interesting.
Don't see the glass half full, see the glass half empty. Nothing is really going up in price, it's fiat money that is losing its value because it is constantly being divided up to maintain the debt system. Now the limit has been reached, citizens no longer have the purchasing power to go into debt due to artificial inflation and the financial power is looking for other formulas to sustain its financial and monetary fraud. Currently, they are trying to condense the population through large masses of immigration to sustain a low supply in the real estate market and tourist housing in the main cities also contributes to causing a low supply. That is why the tourist sector is booming, all in the service of the interests of the financial power.
Nothing is really going up in price, it's fiat money that is losing its value because it is constantly being divided up to maintain the debt . BOOM!!! Look out for BRICS
As someone who has been renting since their early 20s and has no access to family financial aid I have been consistently screwed and honestly the future continues to look bleak 🙃.
Love the channel ❤ Agree with many of your points across many videos. @ 5:13 my take on what drives house prices (short or long term) is more about supply and demand rather than real wages.
It is worth noting the house price falls after 1990 les to the most affordable property market, in living memory, by mid 1996. It took an entire decade to recover from negative equity followimg the 1990 property bubble.
Property price never ever go into reverse no matter what anyone tries to tell you, they can trade sideways for a time but the trajectory will always point north. What they call a crash is a reset, its like parking the car up for a little while until uou get back behind the wheel and carry on. Just as the opening chart shows one curve that has gone straight up. Those that own property know the value of what they hold and will do whatever the can to not sell and ride out the economic storm, even if theyre mortgage prisoners they know the value of the tax beneficial equity is worth whatever struggle may greet them, even if they have to move out and rent their place. Its known the pension crisis that is looming so to be struggling as a senior is a fate worse than death - its diamond hands with property in the UK if you have even an ounce of common sense.
Another one-off change: in 1960, few women earned around where I lived. Now, virtually all women earn. Thus, double the income is chasing each family home. That accounts for one halving of affordability!
That doesn't add up. Two-income households can afford bigger houses than single-income households, but they're also more likely to have kids later on and need a bigger house anyway. A single person doesn't need a house with three or four bedrooms unless they're renting out the spares, in which case that rent will go towards what they can afford to pay in a mortgage.
I used to think this as well however when you look at house price growth and the equal rights act + women in the workplace trends there isn't a correlation. It's really odd because it's stands to reason that banks would naturally do this as you stated but it's not actually supported by any evidence.
It's often hard to get skilled labour to build homes because a lot of the big construction companies want to pay tradespeople rock bottom prices. As a tradesperson, I would rather not do that type of work for the measly rewards of the hard work. Some people are happy smashing houses up all day and putting in the graft required to do it. But the budgets are tight. The prices of the properties do not reflect this. UK property is slowly beginning to feel not worth the money paid, in terms of what you receive for the amount they cost.
How much less do the big firms pay for housebuilding? I work around labour for the extensions game in the south and the tradesmen do well. Bricklayers want £350 per day, sparks £300, chippies £250, and plasterers and painters are trying for similar. Why would the blokes work on house bashing if the pay is bad?
@bogstandardash3751 For an electrician, the expectation is a 3 bedroom house first fixed and second fixed in 5 days, often less at 2 days first fix, 1 day second. Not all construction sites offer poor pay but many try it and want everything done in a very quick time, with no room for error or issues leading to poor quality workmanship to actually make the rates, whilst also being a very tough work day. You are not on a day rate but a price. You can earn more doing your own work instead of working for those companies. You'll generally always find someone willing to do the work, hence why people still do. However, if the money was that good, wouldn't more tradesmen be doing that type of work, and the labour shortages be less of a problem?
The Solution imo ( from a house builder ) Basically houses are too dear to build , tradesmen rates are through the roof and there is a shortage of them ( average tradesman in UK is now over 55 ) Therefore like most industries at the moment , technology has to step in . House building has to go modular or homes have to be 3D printed , costs must come down . If Labour wants to ramp up house building to 1.5 million homes , where are the bricklayers going to come from . Bricklaying rates will soar as the bricklayers will just jump from job to job due to their shortage Technology the solution imo .
As interest rates fall and the cost of borrowing becomes more affordable house prices will increase. House price inflation will considerably exceed goods and services inflation. Bottom line is people need to live somewhere.
House prices have not risen over the decades. The value of Sterling (GBP) has fallen in comparison to assets. Why? Money printing and the expansion of credit (inflation) devalues the currency. Therefore housing is a hedge against a falling currency value, somewhat.
I don't understand why you say house prices haven't risen? I bought a flat in 1996 for £60k (£3k deposit) on an income of £30k. That flat would now sell for £350k. I was a few years out of uni. Today new grads still earn £30k. By my calculations the price has gone up.
Houses are also one of the few purchases where one figures out how much you can afford then tries to top out that budget. You rarely get someone with a £300 K budget buying a £200 K house. Most people don’t set out to spend £700 on a television say, they’ll go out and buy the tv they want at a price they decide is reasonable on the day. Credit to Rory Sutherland
It's because they're convinced that it's a good investment and will fund their retirements. Topping out your budget on unambiguous liabilities is one thing but splashing out on a perceived investment is different
I didn't become financially independent until I was in my late 40's, and I'm still in my 40's. In addition to having purchased my second home and earning money on a monthly basis through passive income, I've also achieved three out of five goals. I just hope this inspires someone to realize that it doesn't matter if you don't have any of these things yet, you can start today no matter your age. Change your future by investing! I made a rather big decision by investing in the financial market
The concept of a 30 year mortgage worked fine in an era of a job for life. Now when many people are out of work every 2-3 years, its not possible to save enough in between to subsidise the gaps. More and more people will hit these unemployed patches and lose their homes. I think the 'mortgage' will fall out of favour in the next 20 years as people start to view them as too risky. Personally. I chose a portfolio over a house. Looking at where I am and where my friends are ... I'm night and day ahead.
House price falls beat inflation ie didn't match inflation so in effect fell much more than your charts when factoring in CPI or rpi over last few years
With stagnant UK growth there is reduced asset growth, so any money in circulation is invested by households in the remaining assets like housing that are available - and as housing is an inelastic demand good (shelter) and faced with complex planning permission rules, house price inflation will be a constant.
The relationship between capital assets (property) and labour (wages) is a set of scales; since 1979 + 2008 crash + 2020 Covid has tilted the scales dramatically in favour of capital and the gap between, the difference between capital and labour is ‘filled’ by the Bank of Mom & Dad.
Good data, thank you. On population, we've been importing 1.5x Glasgow a year, and Labour gov will be quite happy to import 300-500k people per year, so supply constraints will get worse. Slum landlords will do better than expected out to 2030.
Inequality is a massive issue here. Unless we find a way to redistribute some of the gigantic wealth accumulation of the last decade or so, we will continue to have the rich buying up property and we will become a renting society with little influence on the costs. A great example was the covid stimulus, that didn't go to us peasants and duting the period the rich actually doubled their wealth - money meant for the economy but actually sitting with the few that has in turn compounded an already massive asset bubble. Government isn't going to do anything about this as it's them and their mates that will lose wealth - incidentally that they would never spend in their lifetime or tens of generations after. There's also stories of asset rich baby bombers that can't upkeep their large family homes where they would notmally downsize because they want the asset wealth to stay. Low interest rate environment doesnt help either with many over leveraging themselves driving up prices further - this in turn affects both house prices but also the economy as free cash is reduced and spent on interest and capital repayment instead. The market needs to be greatly re equalised
6:07 I can no longer afford to move back to Kent from South Wales. Property i sold in Sittingbourne Kent now 200k more than my bungalow in wales. Gap is huge. Gap 20 years ago was only 35k. Now over 200k. Even Margate my home town is now unaffordable. Not interested moving back to the South East due to the mass illegal immigration in that area. I am retired on a failed private pension, so i rely on the oap pension.
@DewiSant-o3yPrynhawn da. Many people move to Wales because it looks nice, or they fell in love with Wales on a holiday, or they have friends or relatives there, so you shouldn't assume the move was 'random'. My family are all from Wales and some live in England now. Not sure how you think it is 'abnormal' to move to Wales. I am glad the Welsh are so fiercely patriotic, but surely it's good when incomers integrate and learn Welsh.
House prices are mostly set by the availability of credit. This is what should be discussed when talking about house prices ups and down. The 2008 credit crunch is just one in a long line of examples. How much would each house be worth if the buyer had to pay cash? And no I’m not complaining. Simply stating a fact. I only skimmed this video, sorry.
Do you think people rely too much on housing as their primary mode of wealth creation? Almost everyone i know thinks that buying a house and the increase of its price is what will set them up for the future. Also how willing are people to downsize? Are people moving out once their kids have left or are they grasping onto a house too big for them for the sake of the price of it?
The problem with downsizing is the stamp duty. It's a lot money down the drain so people would rather not do it. We're not going to downsize for exactly this reason. Friends of ours did and the stamp duty was over £40k!
Houses at 40 year low in UK when measured in gold, rather than pounds. The pound is something you should focus on (v gold not other printed fiat currency) rather than the house. The Bank of England have printed more and more and more ££ out of thin air to hold up the financial system. Eventually it fails however as if you create an infinite amount of something it becomes worthless. The house is still the house, but the pound has been proliferated by multiples.
One issue that often goes unmentioned is the inheritance of wealth within the middle class. My parents inherited very little from theirs. I inherited a not insignificant amount from my parents, and my children will inherit a significant amount from me and my spouse. Edit: I really should watch the whole video before I comment 😂
It's something I have taught recently about. Thinking of my grandparents, parents, myself and now my children. Progressively higher standards of living, level of education (now sure standards are rising) but also significantly lower fertility rates. If this situation is relatively common, you wonder how it will play out, its really just curiosity, because I believe your destiny is largely in your own hands
Correct. It’s all about inherited cash brought about by higher house prices. Higher house prices due to a shortage - itself caused by massive immigration way beyond the ability to build sufficient additional homes. Tony Blair’s inheritance that was expanded by Priti Patel when Home Secretary. Bonkers foresight! Or done on purpose to generate higher inheritance tax receipts?
@@stitcheruk1150I agree with you on immigration but multiple governments (Labour, Conservatives Joint Lib Dems) has also ignored even the growth from the already existing British population having children so I don't short they weren't prepared for people having children & they also weren't prepared for the rising in population through immigration & them having children either. It's the perfect man made housing crisis
Let’s be honest - developers love their high margins and price new houses outrageously high. There should be a national building company with which other developers would need to compete against - that would kill price gauging.
The situation really is obscure.. I moved to the UK from Germany in 2019. I've lived and worked here for over 5 years and was planning to buy a house up north... then suddenly my employer wanted me back in the office in London... so now I am stuck in this vicious cycle where I cannot afford a house anywhere in or near London, rent is too damn high, but I cannot buy a place somewhere else because the jobs aren't there...
The job opportunities outside London are terrible and its one of the main reasons why London is so overcrowded. While cost of living etc will be cheaper vs London, most Brits are leaving the UK to work in their field abroad for a better salary and lifestyle.
Ikr! One thing is for sure, it can’t possibly have anything to do with the importing of tens of millions of third world foreigners. That would be wrongthink
Tight housing supply keeps prices high and insulates the economy from a housing market crash. Previous governments have done little to increase supply, but have allowed airbnbs and student housing to take lots of housing out of the market. We’ve also granted hundreds of thousands of visas for more students and workers without any housing provision. If things don’t change the market, fewer people can afford to buy and housing will be increasingly owned by a small group of very wealthy landlords.
Some Banks are intending to buy new build houses to rent them out.Supply is less than demand and rents are high, how do people save unless living in camper van . Population growth has exceeded house building for more than ten years.
Well I think trailer parks are possible outcome. Local councils have tried cracking down on them but you cant really do much to them other than to ask them to leave. Also the narrowboats are Londons version of "legal trailer parks". I think rents will likely cap out at around 50-60% of dual household income and after a while, you'll see more HMOs (shared accommodation) to keep real estate profits going. I think you can take a look at Australias or Canadas big cities to see what future holds... with all the horror stories of people renting out tent spaces in their gardens and cages in living rooms
I think the problem is that young people often have no choice except to rent because buy to let landlords buy up all the available housing supply in an area (so they can charge ridiculous rents). If corporations are thinking of doing the same thing it will only make matters worse. I can’t see any answer unless renters could get organised and go on strike but that seems unlikely.
@@philiphall8325 a paying rent strike? thats literally theft of services. even if lots of people did it, it wouldn't work because the civil prosecution would destroy those peoples credit rating for a mortgage, creating perpetual renters, if anything increasing the rent for them as they are higher risk tenants with a history of not paying. the ways to get rents down, reverse recent migration trends, get to 5000-10000 specialist skilled workers total, no family no dependents. cut all benefits to housing and house buying (Help to buy has increased house prices by giving first time buyers £6000 extra, which goes straight up the chain). decrease legal standards of buildings to allow for substandard construction for a decreased rent. deport criminals of foreign origin. Ways to get wages up, increase productivity and manufacturing, increase north sea extraction to decrease petrol costs, build railways for the new industrial sectors. etc.
Overseas investment buyers and rich people with housing portfolios keep pushing up the demand. We need 5 million genuine council homes with a condition that they will never be sold off.
That's something nobody seems to want to talk about.....they think the public are idiots. This will only get worse when starmer decides to import another 3m from the third world
@@speedyhillskithey all have to live somewhere and they all add to housing demand. Increased rental demand pushed prices up because higher rents mean BTL landlords can then buy higher priced houses
Please make videos of house price , salary in the UK compared to EU countries like Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy, Germany. Many EU , UK dual citizens working in London are planning to retire in the EU and stopped buying property in the UK and buy property in EU countries.
Ireland is building 40,000 dwellings next year. Its NOT enough. We are running as fast as we can but we are standing still. UK equivalent would be 520,000 dwellings.
@@philipvjones397 Ireland has experienced significant population growth since joining the European Economic Community (EEC), now the European Union (EU), in 1973. Here’s a rough breakdown of the population growth rate from 1973 to recent times: 1. 1973 (EEC entry): Ireland’s population was around 3 million people. 2. 2023 (50 years later): Ireland’s population surpassed 5.1 million. Growth rate: • The population increased by approximately 70% over the 50-year period. • This represents an average annual growth rate of around 1% per year over that period. Key factors contributing to population growth: • Economic expansion: Especially since the 1990s, driven by foreign investment and Ireland’s status as a tech and finance hub (the “Celtic Tiger” era). • EU membership: Facilitated labor mobility and attracted migrants, particularly after the 2004 EU enlargement. • High birth rates (historically higher than the EU average). • Migration trends: While Ireland saw significant emigration in the 1980s, it became a net recipient of immigrants in later years. These factors collectively explain Ireland’s steady population increase since joining the EEC.
Prices likely to continue to rise due to demand continuing to increase in numbers of people in the country. Japan not comparable with regard to falling birthrate as they allow very little immigration.
I believe the only factor that matters here is currency debasement, its been happening and will continue to happening with bigger values and this will nominally inflate prices as our pound will buy us less and less. Rents will also keep inching upwards due to that inflation
Loads of great stats and a lovely slow pace to take the info in. I think the factor missed though in why house prices did not dip much is not just bank of mum and dad, but significantly bolstered by the super rich buying assets. - see Gary's Economics channel
This is a really interesting take on the housing market. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?
It doesn't help with the fact that people consider housing as an investment for it to just sit there and gather dust or to rent out to tenants. I doubt population is the main issue here at all
It's not so complicated, a huge shortfall in housing stock, everybody needs somewhere to live, thus the old adage, supply and demand. I bought 20 years ago and even then everyone expected the housing bubble to burst, there is a trend to all of this, I bought in London, after 5 years I moved to the Southeast coast knowing it would out preform London and it has. Even if a huge amount of housing is built the quality of housing today is crap and pre-1980's builds will always be more desirable.
House prices are up around 4% year on year; gold is up over 25% in same period. The modest increase in house price is actually a big crash compared to real inflation. Need to compare everything with real inflation using 1980s definition, then people will realise most house price increases are just due to inflation, aka money printing.
It’s all about inheritance. People inherit money and it’s a natural instinct to use cash to buy a larger house. A shortage of housing exacerbates the problem. SIMPLE answer !
Those house price increase charts do not account for inflation. House prices in 2024 are exactly the same as in 2004 when inflation is taken into account.
Inflation. Gives a higher price tag but has it increased the value of the house. Shopping has doubled since covid..bottled water etc.my house hasn't increased
Check BRICS. Dedollarization will cause hyper inflation in the US. FED rates have been considered by some bankers at 8%. The BofE has to keep parity and you can guess the rest. 80% of mortgages in 2022 (peak) were fixed rate as opposed to 20% in the 2009 crash. This has slowed the crash rate, but as more come off fixed, so prices will be effected. I think price attrition will continue for 3 to 5 years. World economies will continue to fail.
"mass immigration has little effect on house prices" After that statement, I knew pretty much to ignore everything you said afterwards. If all immigration was halted tomorrow, including repatriation of those here, house prices would fall heavily. Especially large properties in central London, and former family homes, carved into HMOs in poorer areas. Just look at the local council and cerco with their desperate adds for rental property or compulsory purchase. Or the immediate falls in the highest end properties each time, following sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela. When the most expensive city in the nation - London - has become minority indigenous 42% over the past two decades (our other large cities are on the same trajectory), and fully 2/3 of new births have been born to non British citizens, you see the problem. There would have been a sharpish fall in population, and less demand, all things equal. The inward population numbers is not an accident. There has been a precieptous fall in UK productivity since the 2008 crisis, despite a large increase in debt liabilities to service debts. In the absence or real, productivity lead growth, headline GDP figures are bolstered by inward migration numbers. Without it, bond prices would fall hard on international markets. Selling off property for speculation, by demand created by inward migration, is the main economic growth engine now for GDP. So, the question is really about how much longer voters and politicians can bribe each other over continued mass immigration into the UK, money printing and tax transfers to existing property and land owners, to keep the Ponzi running, before the democracy Vs civil war tension can play out. We are in a neo-feudal nation now, so all analysis must start from the calculation of how that structure can continue survival without revolt, and how long money can be extracted from non property owners to enrich property owners in a rigged economy. Perhaps forever, given the increasing encroachment into civil rights and free speech, we currently witness. It just isn't an economics issue now, apart from the forecasting of the day a USSR style collapse is forced onto the UK by a black swan event, to expose the contradictions. That, or a swing to libertarian economic policy, but we know that's unlikely as politicians MUST prop up the Ponzi to stay in power. Supply and demand analysis of the UK property "market" 😉 is just boomer cope or gas lighting. In the same way economic analysis of the Soviet economy was meaningless, until the day it collapsed all of a sudden, but without any prediction date by economists.
I completely agree with you on his sentiments about mass immigration. This is the first video I’ve watched from this guy, but I feel like he’s ignoring the elephant in the room.
Why parents should not help their children if they can?? And yes when a generation replaces another there is transfer of wealth from one to another,,.it has been the case for thousands of years…The UK economic system is build on increasing real estate prices over long term…those who can’t see it and stay on the sideline will suffer by getting stuck on the renting ladder..Real average house prices are stuck as same level for 20 years..it’s time for average real income levels to increase because this is where the problem on the UK is…stagnated real incomes for the majority of population for the last 10/15 years..
I think I have the solution: De-commodify housing now, not later, not in 10-15 years, now. Or at least the majority of it, to still give people the opportunity to own something private if they really want to. But for most people’s cases, they just want a roof over their heads and nothing more, increasing the opinion amongst younger people, myself and yourself included, that housing should be a guaranteed right and a basic living standard to be met.
i dont belive that house prices are as high as owners state if you factor in inflation and what you measure the increase in if you use currency yes they have but if yiu culculate house prices in gold ounces house prices are at a 40 year low. what the common person forgets is it is your currency being inflated not only your house price increasing. the only entity make money from houses are the mortgage companies
So it’s inflation not taking into account. The fact that money is going down in value so it’s not really the house price is going up as much as he say it is.
I think you are downplaying the impact of around 15 million additional people on the impact of the housing sector. If the UK kicked out every single immigrant tomorrow the idea that housing prices wouldn't collapse by several factors is beyond absurd. An Economist should understand the affect of supply and demand. The extra demand 15 million people added to housing was likely the most important factor on price rises for at least the last 10 years if not the last 20.
Demographics are the problem with this observation. Ignore it at your peril. In a society where the current working age population pay the pensions of the retried, as that ratio changes so does the cost to those of working age. Housing people is the problem choosing to construct that housing isn't in the interest of the wealthy. As inequality increases so will the compounding effect of the wealthiest having the ability to purchase the assets of the middle and lower incomes classes and so will their capital and income streams from it. Remove immigrants from the nation and all you will have is a society without sufficient workforce to support the infrastructure or the elderly literally societal collapse a recession of monumental depth. Paying people sufficiently they can afford an acceptable standard of living is a choice.
Who’s going look after the elderley folks? Staff the nhs? Without immigration uk would collapse within 2 weeks, uk house prices would be the least problem you’d have…
U.K. Population has doubled in 100 years though, but ultimately with the advancements in technology like Microsoft Teams, I will only travel into the office a max of twice a week. Live in Scotland, work in London. Simple.
He misses the most important figure: rental yield, because when this remains high, then there will always be buyers in the market EVEN IF SALARIED INDIVIDUALS CANNOT AFFORD IT, others can. Such as asset managers and any company or individual who is cash rich…especially elites looking to diversify their portfolios away from stocks and bonds.
A seller refused to consider offers below 278k 6 months ago. Listed again a week ago and is up for 265k lol😂. This is a common mistake in my area of Swale and they are just following the market down. The game is nearly up for the US ecconomy, as the government run out of money for subsidises for failing businesses like Intel. We need another crash and reset to restore actual values in the markets.
First of all average salary in the Uk is about £35 grand a year. Comparing numbers like for like is silly. Secondly the UK housing market isn't in a bubble. The US housing market is. The UK actually has a shortage of housing and prices are kept high by demand for new homes not from suppliers expecting absurd returns. It isn't uncommon for houses to receive even a 20% markup on asking price in the UK. Its so bad people have stopped working because they don't believe they will ever be able to afford a new home.
@@rinnin If house prices are increasing by 2% per year and you think it’s better to leave your money in the bank earning 4%, the logic is flawed for several reasons: 1. Real Return After Inflation: While your savings account might give you 4% interest, inflation can reduce your actual purchasing power. For instance, if inflation is 3%, your real return is only 1%. Meanwhile, the 2% increase in house prices might actually outpace the real value growth of your savings. 2. Long-Term Appreciation of Housing: House prices tend to appreciate over time, often by more than 2% annually, especially when considering the long term. Historically, real estate has proven to be a strong investment. Even if house prices are only increasing by 2% right now, over the long term, they could increase at a much higher rate, leading to significant capital gains. Keeping your money in a bank might miss out on this potential appreciation. 3. Leveraging Real Estate Investment: When buying a house, you typically use leverage (mortgages), meaning you can control a larger asset with less upfront money. This leverage amplifies your returns. For instance, a 2% increase on a $300,000 house is $6,000, which is much higher than a 4% interest on a smaller bank balance. 4. Housing as a Tangible Asset: Housing provides not just potential appreciation but also utility-you can live in it or rent it out, which offers financial benefits beyond the price increase alone. By contrast, savings in a bank only accumulate interest and don’t provide any tangible benefits. 5. Opportunity Cost of Not Owning a Home: If house prices are rising, delaying the purchase of a home could mean you’ll need more money later to buy the same property. Even a 2% annual increase can make houses more expensive over time, eroding the purchasing power of your savings. In summary, focusing solely on a 2% annual rise in house prices compared to a 4% bank return ignores factors like inflation, the long-term potential for home appreciation, the benefits of leveraging, and the tangible utility of owning property. I think you’re thinking like a Brexiteer, no disrespect intended.
@@rinnin If house prices are increasing by 2% per year and you think it’s better to leave your money in the bank earning 4%, the logic is flawed for several reasons: 1. Real Return After Inflation: While your savings account might give you 4% interest, inflation can reduce your actual purchasing power. For instance, if inflation is 3%, your real return is only 1%. Meanwhile, the 2% increase in house prices might actually outpace the real value growth of your savings. 2. Long-Term Appreciation of Housing: House prices tend to appreciate over time, often by more than 2% annually, especially when considering the long term. Historically, real estate has proven to be a strong investment. Even if house prices are only increasing by 2% right now, over the long term, they could increase at a much higher rate, leading to significant capital gains. Keeping your money in a bank might miss out on this potential appreciation. 3. Leveraging Real Estate Investment: When buying a house, you typically use leverage (mortgages), meaning you can control a larger asset with less upfront money. This leverage amplifies your returns. For instance, a 2% increase on a $300,000 house is $6,000, which is much higher than a 4% interest on a smaller bank balance. 4. Housing as a Tangible Asset: Housing provides not just potential appreciation but also utility-you can live in it or rent it out, which offers financial benefits beyond the price increase alone. By contrast, savings in a bank only accumulate interest and don’t provide any tangible benefits. 5. Opportunity Cost of Not Owning a Home: If house prices are rising, delaying the purchase of a home could mean you’ll need more money later to buy the same property. Even a 2% annual increase can make houses more expensive over time, eroding the purchasing power of your savings. In summary, focusing solely on a 2% annual rise in house prices compared to a 4% bank return ignores factors like inflation, the long-term potential for home appreciation, the benefits of leveraging, and the tangible utility of owning property.
@@victoredwards3959yep, Dad bought first house for 6000, that same house is now over 500K, sold his car to buy it. In the bank that same money is near worthless.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
whilst rents are so high and rise each year, buying makes more sense, house price £200,000, deposit 10% leaves a mortgage of £180,000 with capital and interest payment of £858 per month at 4%, some deals out there at this rate, but to rent the same property is £995 per month, which would you prefer
Don't forget the costs of stamp duty, legal, mortgage survey, insurance, maintenance, ongoing minor refurb etc when you buy outright. None of these apply when you rent. Plus the opportunity cost of not investing the 20k deposit. And a 'forever home' is rare, so you have all these costs again when you sell, with the hope that the price of your home has increased in the meantime....
@@kevinsyd2012 Also opportunity costs of being stuck having to live in the same house for 30+ years. If you buy a house in Newcastle, but then a job opportunity opens up for you with a good salary, but it requires you to live in London, then you are kind of tied down to living in the house you are paying a mortgage on. Also, if you buy a house in an area, and crime in the area increases, the value of property decreases etc. you are pretty much stuck living there.
Renting would be better at those figures, you're saving 150 per month, but annually you'll pay more than £1800 in upkeep. Boilers break, windows fail, carpet needs changing, kitchens get old, bathrooms get old.. it's always something. Tbf the landlord will also want to sell at that price as he'll not make a profit so you can't win either way.
How much does immigration affect house prices? I didn't have time to go into detail here. This video ua-cam.com/video/Hy2smgYvnco/v-deo.html explains the link. (There is some, but magnitude disputed)
A wage collapse has been sold as a house and asset price boom.
It's simply inflation and ever more worthless currency.
The value hasn't risen at all
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Jessica Lee Horst for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
It's not about them interest rates though is it. Houses cost less relevant to wages so even though interest rates were higher, it was overall a better gig than what the youth are forced to do today, facts.
If a house was 40k but your salary was 20k, can you see how that's different to a house being 300k and your salary being 30-50k and more today?
Great video thanks!
Although, I think you’re mostly wrong about immigration. I think it’s one of the main key contributing factors to house price increases.
Thanks!
I’m young and have 2 daughters and I know for a fact I will have to contribute massively towards their first house if they ever finally move out.
Top tip, marry someone older who already has substantial assets. It's what my ex wife did and she now has a nice paid for house.
@jjefferyworboys8138 if my wife left me I'd sell up and move into a van, save up and tour Europe
@@jjefferyworboys8138 what you have to remember is it takes far less for a man to be happy. She could have everything she thinks she wants and still be miserable. Guys can be a lot happier with their lives.
@@veddyvengwoman don’t like to get married
As long as demand significantly exceeds supply prices will not fall in absolute terms. With a rise in wages in real terms prices are unlikely to fall even in real terms.
It really is as simple as that.
We have a very large shortfall in demand and thanks in part to net migration, we are seeing rising demand. As for the Govt.s plan to build 1.5m new homes over the next 5 years - it has absolutely no chance of succeeding.
Not to mention it isn’t even close to enough to match population growth needs. We added over 700k people to the population last year more than double the planned house building per year.
Don't blame migrant labour for deliberate immigration policies practiced by both Labour and Tory govts. to ensure a steady stream of cheap labour, "free movement" in EU aims for same hypermobile cheap labour. At same time, govts favour high Asset prices in property market( mortgaged persons politically pre-occupied by " dull compulsion of economic survival") and high profits fir banks etc.
There's a serious birth rate crisis
How are you defining demand?
😂😂 demand only created by the bank of England interest rates , so low interest rates will flood the market with cheap money , so demand only determined and controlled by how much money bank of England want to allow to tge market
One thing to consider also with more people going onto higher rates over the next year or so is people also coming down from the highs of 5-6% who fixed in for 2 years.
Down versus gold considerably in that period. The deed on my old 1895 Victorian 5 bed semi in Kent showed it first sold for 90 gold sovereigns. So at a time of sound money and industrial wealth, it was £45000 in today’s money. It still has a long way to go to equalise
But in no way is that the same market.
It's about inequality.
As long as average monthly earnings have semblance of an affordability relationship to monthly housing cost (rent or mortgage)... it won't make a difference who owns the asset.
Get ready for property ownership status to be the deciding factor in your economic fortunes... haves vs. have-nots.
It's also about younger generations comfort with debt. An average 20 year old nowadays would think nothing of paying 20-30% on top of the OTR price of a car if it was on monthly payment terms, same for the latest phones. Older generations just didn't have that element of easy credit at the same stage of their life.
You ask the average Gen Zer what their monthly outgoings are and more importantly WHAT they spend their money on. It will make you want to cry with disbelief and how financially reckless many of them are.
@manvbees I agree, but just look how the entire world is marketed to them. It's not their fault.
Any boomer who paid a year's salary for a house in 1969 won't understand.
House prices when we’re talking actual transactions have fallen by about 10% in cities. It’s a buyers market out there but many sellers are too belligerent to lower their asking prices.
Britisher pals, be advised that rural and suburban housing in Japan is way cheaper than UK. At 190 yen to the pound and a low bank rate it a case of fill your boots. A detached house in suburban Japan is about 20% of what you'd pay in the south of England. That's one-fifth, not 20% lower.
Jack, the Japan Alps Brit
The Issue in the UK is the change from a manufacturing econony which was spread across Britain, to sevice economy centered in London and the home counties. If predictions become reality, then AI will have a major impact on service industries like finance, research, law, and medicine.
Also the preference for using inancial services based in London will decline, because the arrangements with the EU and UK are about to end.
I visited Netherland and found the country richer than UK and also found less asylum , immigrant, stabbing and rubbish on the roads. The house prices looked cheaper than the UK ( £1 mil property would be £650k in Netherlands). I dont know about the salary in banking, finance and IT sector.
Net migration is double in the UK could be a factor.
In my area there are a lot of buy to let and buy to holiday let properties coming on the market and they are not shifting that easily. Labour have announced a new Renters Rights Bill and there is a crackdown on the business rates/holiday let loophole. The writing is on the wall for landlords with greater regulation and capital gains tax coming down the line. Many are looking at their property holdings closely and feeling that gains in capital value are now looking unlikely. On the other side of the ledger, s21 regulations, proposed decent home standard costs and sharp rises in maintenance costs have made the investment unattractive. 2 year bonds are easily available at 4.5% which in many cases will exceed net yields without the headaches of managing residential property.
What this means for property values in anyones guess, it doesn't seem to be a particularly rational market!
I've seen a deep-dive analysis of the U.K. housing market vs. the stock market and the short version is that without state subsidies housing is significantly less attractive investment than an all world stock index. And that is a problem: many people still hang on to the idea that 'bricks and mortar' are the best bet, mainly thanks to multiple governments trying their best to jack up house prices, but now that has reversed somewhat it's going to be interesting.
Yes but interest rates are falling
Don't see the glass half full, see the glass half empty. Nothing is really going up in price, it's fiat money that is losing its value because it is constantly being divided up to maintain the debt system. Now the limit has been reached, citizens no longer have the purchasing power to go into debt due to artificial inflation and the financial power is looking for other formulas to sustain its financial and monetary fraud. Currently, they are trying to condense the population through large masses of immigration to sustain a low supply in the real estate market and tourist housing in the main cities also contributes to causing a low supply. That is why the tourist sector is booming, all in the service of the interests of the financial power.
Nothing is really going up in price, it's fiat money that is losing its value because it is constantly being divided up to maintain the debt . BOOM!!! Look out for BRICS
100%
As someone who has been renting since their early 20s and has no access to family financial aid I have been consistently screwed and honestly the future continues to look bleak 🙃.
Love the channel ❤
Agree with many of your points across many videos.
@ 5:13 my take on what drives house prices (short or long term) is more about supply and demand rather than real wages.
It is worth noting the house price falls after 1990 les to the most affordable property market, in living memory, by mid 1996. It took an entire decade to recover from negative equity followimg the 1990 property bubble.
Property price never ever go into reverse no matter what anyone tries to tell you, they can trade sideways for a time but the trajectory will always point north. What they call a crash is a reset, its like parking the car up for a little while until uou get back behind the wheel and carry on. Just as the opening chart shows one curve that has gone straight up. Those that own property know the value of what they hold and will do whatever the can to not sell and ride out the economic storm, even if theyre mortgage prisoners they know the value of the tax beneficial equity is worth whatever struggle may greet them, even if they have to move out and rent their place. Its known the pension crisis that is looming so to be struggling as a senior is a fate worse than death - its diamond hands with property in the UK if you have even an ounce of common sense.
Another one-off change: in 1960, few women earned around where I lived. Now, virtually all women earn. Thus, double the income is chasing each family home. That accounts for one halving of affordability!
That's a very good point.
Yes, it is an important factor, somewhat mitigated by rise in number of single people households. (like me!)
That doesn't add up. Two-income households can afford bigger houses than single-income households, but they're also more likely to have kids later on and need a bigger house anyway.
A single person doesn't need a house with three or four bedrooms unless they're renting out the spares, in which case that rent will go towards what they can afford to pay in a mortgage.
@@tealkerberus748 You're missing the point: it's not about the space needed, it's the capital that the buyer can raise, and two incomes double that.
I used to think this as well however when you look at house price growth and the equal rights act + women in the workplace trends there isn't a correlation.
It's really odd because it's stands to reason that banks would naturally do this as you stated but it's not actually supported by any evidence.
It's often hard to get skilled labour to build homes because a lot of the big construction companies want to pay tradespeople rock bottom prices. As a tradesperson, I would rather not do that type of work for the measly rewards of the hard work. Some people are happy smashing houses up all day and putting in the graft required to do it. But the budgets are tight. The prices of the properties do not reflect this. UK property is slowly beginning to feel not worth the money paid, in terms of what you receive for the amount they cost.
How much less do the big firms pay for housebuilding?
I work around labour for the extensions game in the south and the tradesmen do well.
Bricklayers want £350 per day, sparks £300, chippies £250, and plasterers and painters are trying for similar.
Why would the blokes work on house bashing if the pay is bad?
@bogstandardash3751 For an electrician, the expectation is a 3 bedroom house first fixed and second fixed in 5 days, often less at 2 days first fix, 1 day second. Not all construction sites offer poor pay but many try it and want everything done in a very quick time, with no room for error or issues leading to poor quality workmanship to actually make the rates, whilst also being a very tough work day. You are not on a day rate but a price. You can earn more doing your own work instead of working for those companies.
You'll generally always find someone willing to do the work, hence why people still do. However, if the money was that good, wouldn't more tradesmen be doing that type of work, and the labour shortages be less of a problem?
The Solution imo ( from a house builder )
Basically houses are too dear to build , tradesmen rates are through the roof and there is a shortage of them ( average tradesman in UK is now over 55 )
Therefore like most industries at the moment , technology has to step in . House building has to go modular or homes have to be 3D printed , costs must come down .
If Labour wants to ramp up house building to 1.5 million homes , where are the bricklayers going to come from . Bricklaying rates will soar as the bricklayers will just jump from job to job due to their shortage
Technology the solution imo .
With tax busting rises being predicted in October. I can't imagine its going to do much good for the housing market.
As interest rates fall and the cost of borrowing becomes more affordable house prices will increase.
House price inflation will considerably exceed goods and services inflation. Bottom line is people need to live somewhere.
House prices have not risen over the decades. The value of Sterling (GBP) has fallen in comparison to assets.
Why? Money printing and the expansion of credit (inflation) devalues the currency. Therefore housing is a hedge against a falling currency value, somewhat.
Would you say average income has been almost stagnant for the past two decades?
I don't understand why you say house prices haven't risen? I bought a flat in 1996 for £60k (£3k deposit) on an income of £30k. That flat would now sell for £350k. I was a few years out of uni. Today new grads still earn £30k. By my calculations the price has gone up.
@@palmtree-e2l i could never imagine a circumstances like that now
Houses are also one of the few purchases where one figures out how much you can afford then tries to top out that budget. You rarely get someone with a £300 K budget buying a £200 K house. Most people don’t set out to spend £700 on a television say, they’ll go out and buy the tv they want at a price they decide is reasonable on the day. Credit to Rory Sutherland
Like me, I bought a house, and then realised I had to borrow on a credit card to buy fridge e.t.c.
It's because they're convinced that it's a good investment and will fund their retirements. Topping out your budget on unambiguous liabilities is one thing but splashing out on a perceived investment is different
Brilliant analysis as ever
Is the currency depreciating or are the prices rising?
I didn't become financially independent until I was in my late 40's, and I'm still in my 40's. In addition to having purchased my second home and earning money on a monthly basis through passive income, I've also achieved three out of five goals. I just hope this inspires someone to realize that it doesn't matter if you don't have any of these things yet, you can start today no matter your age. Change your future by investing! I made a rather big decision by investing in the financial market
All thanks to Jaspreet Singh with his investment advice, at least I can afford a good home and also have to retire early.
I have also worked with the same Jaspreet Singh. he is very insightful and understanding. he is also a patient teacher..
I have seen so many recommendations about Jaspreet Singh, his strategy must be good for people to talk about him....
I'm putting my money into gold, silver and certain cryptos, not the stock market. Crash incoming along with house prices.
I will sacrifice a chicken to the god that is Jaspreet Singh. Bow down before him puny mortals!!
Stagnation in wages and house price growth.
Wonder if the two are linked to the demand side of the equation that is never discussed in Parliament.
I love your analyses, I'm not an economist at all and it really helps me understand the market.
The concept of a 30 year mortgage worked fine in an era of a job for life. Now when many people are out of work every 2-3 years, its not possible to save enough in between to subsidise the gaps. More and more people will hit these unemployed patches and lose their homes. I think the 'mortgage' will fall out of favour in the next 20 years as people start to view them as too risky. Personally. I chose a portfolio over a house. Looking at where I am and where my friends are ... I'm night and day ahead.
House price falls beat inflation ie didn't match inflation so in effect fell much more than your charts when factoring in CPI or rpi over last few years
Great video. Thank you for the clearly presented info. How did you animate these graphs?
With stagnant UK growth there is reduced asset growth, so any money in circulation is invested by households in the remaining assets like housing that are available - and as housing is an inelastic demand good (shelter) and faced with complex planning permission rules, house price inflation will be a constant.
The relationship between capital assets (property) and labour (wages) is a set of scales; since 1979 + 2008 crash + 2020 Covid has tilted the scales dramatically in favour of capital and the gap between, the difference between capital and labour is ‘filled’ by the Bank of Mom & Dad.
Good data, thank you.
On population, we've been importing 1.5x Glasgow a year, and Labour gov will be quite happy to import 300-500k people per year, so supply constraints will get worse. Slum landlords will do better than expected out to 2030.
Thanks. I really appreciate your insight into this dire situation.
Inequality is a massive issue here.
Unless we find a way to redistribute some of the gigantic wealth accumulation of the last decade or so, we will continue to have the rich buying up property and we will become a renting society with little influence on the costs. A great example was the covid stimulus, that didn't go to us peasants and duting the period the rich actually doubled their wealth - money meant for the economy but actually sitting with the few that has in turn compounded an already massive asset bubble.
Government isn't going to do anything about this as it's them and their mates that will lose wealth - incidentally that they would never spend in their lifetime or tens of generations after.
There's also stories of asset rich baby bombers that can't upkeep their large family homes where they would notmally downsize because they want the asset wealth to stay.
Low interest rate environment doesnt help either with many over leveraging themselves driving up prices further - this in turn affects both house prices but also the economy as free cash is reduced and spent on interest and capital repayment instead.
The market needs to be greatly re equalised
Great video as always and answers both questions I had and ones I hadn’t thought of.
Housing is essential, population growth 📈 is unprecedented. Housing follows the Law of Supply and Demand right? More people means more demand...
6:07 I can no longer afford to move back to Kent from South Wales. Property i sold in Sittingbourne Kent now 200k more than my bungalow in wales. Gap is huge. Gap 20 years ago was only 35k. Now over 200k. Even Margate my home town is now unaffordable. Not interested moving back to the South East due to the mass illegal immigration in that area. I am retired on a failed private pension, so i rely on the oap pension.
I wouldn't worry, you're better off where you are
Kent is manic, fields all turning into housing estates, crowded towns, litter and jammed roads - I left three years ago and would never go back.
@DewiSant-o3yPrynhawn da. Many people move to Wales because it looks nice, or they fell in love with Wales on a holiday, or they have friends or relatives there, so you shouldn't assume the move was 'random'. My family are all from Wales and some live in England now. Not sure how you think it is 'abnormal' to move to Wales. I am glad the Welsh are so fiercely patriotic, but surely it's good when incomers integrate and learn Welsh.
House prices are mostly set by the availability of credit. This is what should be discussed when talking about house prices ups and down. The 2008 credit crunch is just one in a long line of examples. How much would each house be worth if the buyer had to pay cash?
And no I’m not complaining. Simply stating a fact.
I only skimmed this video, sorry.
Do you think people rely too much on housing as their primary mode of wealth creation? Almost everyone i know thinks that buying a house and the increase of its price is what will set them up for the future. Also how willing are people to downsize? Are people moving out once their kids have left or are they grasping onto a house too big for them for the sake of the price of it?
The problem with downsizing is the stamp duty. It's a lot money down the drain so people would rather not do it. We're not going to downsize for exactly this reason. Friends of ours did and the stamp duty was over £40k!
Houses at 40 year low in UK when measured in gold, rather than pounds. The pound is something you should focus on (v gold not other printed fiat currency) rather than the house. The Bank of England have printed more and more and more ££ out of thin air to hold up the financial system. Eventually it fails however as if you create an infinite amount of something it becomes worthless. The house is still the house, but the pound has been proliferated by multiples.
One issue that often goes unmentioned is the inheritance of wealth within the middle class. My parents inherited very little from theirs. I inherited a not insignificant amount from my parents, and my children will inherit a significant amount from me and my spouse.
Edit: I really should watch the whole video before I comment 😂
It's something I have taught recently about. Thinking of my grandparents, parents, myself and now my children. Progressively higher standards of living, level of education (now sure standards are rising) but also significantly lower fertility rates. If this situation is relatively common, you wonder how it will play out, its really just curiosity, because I believe your destiny is largely in your own hands
They haven’t inherited your money yet. Let’s wait for the budget.
Correct. It’s all about inherited cash brought about by higher house prices. Higher house prices due to a shortage - itself caused by massive immigration way beyond the ability to build sufficient additional homes. Tony Blair’s inheritance that was expanded by Priti Patel when Home Secretary. Bonkers foresight! Or done on purpose to generate higher inheritance tax receipts?
@@stitcheruk1150I agree with you on immigration but multiple governments (Labour, Conservatives Joint Lib Dems) has also ignored even the growth from the already existing British population having children so I don't short they weren't prepared for people having children & they also weren't prepared for the rising in population through immigration & them having children either. It's the perfect man made housing crisis
And those who don’t inherit anything are left more and more behind.
Let’s be honest - developers love their high margins and price new houses outrageously high. There should be a national building company with which other developers would need to compete against - that would kill price gauging.
The situation really is obscure.. I moved to the UK from Germany in 2019. I've lived and worked here for over 5 years and was planning to buy a house up north... then suddenly my employer wanted me back in the office in London... so now I am stuck in this vicious cycle where I cannot afford a house anywhere in or near London, rent is too damn high, but I cannot buy a place somewhere else because the jobs aren't there...
What feild of work are you in ?
With respect I imagine your long term prospects are better in Germany.
Most Brits I know are having conversations about how we get out of the UK.
The job opportunities outside London are terrible and its one of the main reasons why London is so overcrowded. While cost of living etc will be cheaper vs London, most Brits are leaving the UK to work in their field abroad for a better salary and lifestyle.
Awesome thanks. Brilliant content. Spot on. Well said.
I still can’t work out why prices have gone up so much! House prices, rent. I still can’t work it out!
The government restricts house building keeping prices high, supply and demand.
Lack of housing squeezes the market
Ikr! One thing is for sure, it can’t possibly have anything to do with the importing of tens of millions of third world foreigners. That would be wrongthink
Lack of housing and diluted purchasing power due to currency printing
The same reason that food, transport, energy and utilities have - your owners don't want you well off
Insightful
Thank you Sir
Ive got a decent deposit and perfect credit history and still cant afford a house
Tight housing supply keeps prices high and insulates the economy from a housing market crash. Previous governments have done little to increase supply, but have allowed airbnbs and student housing to take lots of housing out of the market. We’ve also granted hundreds of thousands of visas for more students and workers without any housing provision. If things don’t change the market, fewer people can afford to buy and housing will be increasingly owned by a small group of very wealthy landlords.
Some Banks are intending to buy new build houses to rent them out.Supply is less than demand and rents are high, how do people save unless living in camper van . Population growth has exceeded house building for more than ten years.
Well I think trailer parks are possible outcome. Local councils have tried cracking down on them but you cant really do much to them other than to ask them to leave. Also the narrowboats are Londons version of "legal trailer parks". I think rents will likely cap out at around 50-60% of dual household income and after a while, you'll see more HMOs (shared accommodation) to keep real estate profits going.
I think you can take a look at Australias or Canadas big cities to see what future holds... with all the horror stories of people renting out tent spaces in their gardens and cages in living rooms
I think the problem is that young people often have no choice except to rent because buy to let landlords buy up all the available housing supply in an area (so they can charge ridiculous rents). If corporations are thinking of doing the same thing it will only make matters worse. I can’t see any answer unless renters could get organised and go on strike but that seems unlikely.
@@philiphall8325 a paying rent strike? thats literally theft of services. even if lots of people did it, it wouldn't work because the civil prosecution would destroy those peoples credit rating for a mortgage, creating perpetual renters, if anything increasing the rent for them as they are higher risk tenants with a history of not paying.
the ways to get rents down, reverse recent migration trends, get to 5000-10000 specialist skilled workers total, no family no dependents. cut all benefits to housing and house buying (Help to buy has increased house prices by giving first time buyers £6000 extra, which goes straight up the chain). decrease legal standards of buildings to allow for substandard construction for a decreased rent. deport criminals of foreign origin.
Ways to get wages up, increase productivity and manufacturing, increase north sea extraction to decrease petrol costs, build railways for the new industrial sectors. etc.
Often they save by living with parents, hence the parents want to help them get their own place.
Net immigration of around 700,000 not including illegals, visas, family visas etc. doesn't help.
Overseas investment buyers and rich people with housing portfolios keep pushing up the demand. We need 5 million genuine council homes with a condition that they will never be sold off.
House prices rising? Banks allowing excess multiples of incomes…Not taking other outgoings into account…
Rent should be regulated. It's a free for all now. Pension funds are buying rental properties,etc.
the job outlook has to keep up
With an extra 750,000 people entering the UK every year, house prices (and rent) will continue to skyrocket. Supply and demand, simple as that.
The next Big *Boom* 🚀 will come in rocket shape before any other type of boom
Yep glad all those immigrants can afford 250k houses lol
That's something nobody seems to want to talk about.....they think the public are idiots. This will only get worse when starmer decides to import another 3m from the third world
@@speedyhillskithey all have to live somewhere and they all add to housing demand. Increased rental demand pushed prices up because higher rents mean BTL landlords can then buy higher priced houses
@@speedyhillski Landlords can and especially if the government is paying the rent!
Please make videos of house price , salary in the UK compared to EU countries like Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy, Germany. Many EU , UK dual citizens working in London are planning to retire in the EU and stopped buying property in the UK and buy property in EU countries.
Ireland is building 40,000 dwellings next year.
Its NOT enough.
We are running as fast as we can but we are standing still.
UK equivalent would be 520,000 dwellings.
@@philipvjones397 Ireland has experienced significant population growth since joining the European Economic Community (EEC), now the European Union (EU), in 1973. Here’s a rough breakdown of the population growth rate from 1973 to recent times:
1. 1973 (EEC entry): Ireland’s population was around 3 million people.
2. 2023 (50 years later): Ireland’s population surpassed 5.1 million.
Growth rate:
• The population increased by approximately 70% over the 50-year period.
• This represents an average annual growth rate of around 1% per year over that period.
Key factors contributing to population growth:
• Economic expansion: Especially since the 1990s, driven by foreign investment and Ireland’s status as a tech and finance hub (the “Celtic Tiger” era).
• EU membership: Facilitated labor mobility and attracted migrants, particularly after the 2004 EU enlargement.
• High birth rates (historically higher than the EU average).
• Migration trends: While Ireland saw significant emigration in the 1980s, it became a net recipient of immigrants in later years.
These factors collectively explain Ireland’s steady population increase since joining the EEC.
We'll be back to families living in 1 room again. This period of small luxury was a mistake the elites let happen
Boom in order to bust. One of the bankers' favourite pastimes.
Prices likely to continue to rise due to demand continuing to increase in numbers of people in the country. Japan not comparable with regard to falling birthrate as they allow very little immigration.
Amazing 49 600 subscribers ( oct 2024), the Boss is in Town !
Has everyone noticed the desperate sellers trying to lure people in before the next downturn ? They’re everywhere. Things must be bad.
Can only speak of where I live, but there's a downturn here in overpriced Dorset & some new housing developments have been mothballed.
Currently were I live house pricing is around 50k to expensive
lol yeh, I’m one of them 😂
Unfortunately not prices had a meagre drop earlier this year and have since risen above it again I’m not seeing any decline on prices here
Loads of flats on the market at the mo!
There is no room to boom !!! It’s only one direction !!!!
Thank you
I believe the only factor that matters here is currency debasement, its been happening and will continue to happening with bigger values and this will nominally inflate prices as our pound will buy us less and less. Rents will also keep inching upwards due to that inflation
Loads of great stats and a lovely slow pace to take the info in.
I think the factor missed though in why house prices did not dip much is not just bank of mum and dad, but significantly bolstered by the super rich buying assets. - see Gary's Economics channel
This is a really interesting take on the housing market. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?
It doesn't help with the fact that people consider housing as an investment for it to just sit there and gather dust or to rent out to tenants. I doubt population is the main issue here at all
Clearly importing 500k+ people year after year is massively affecting house prices and affordability
@@manjeetgill1
How?
It's not so complicated, a huge shortfall in housing stock, everybody needs somewhere to live, thus the old adage, supply and demand. I bought 20 years ago and even then everyone expected the housing bubble to burst, there is a trend to all of this, I bought in London, after 5 years I moved to the Southeast coast knowing it would out preform London and it has. Even if a huge amount of housing is built the quality of housing today is crap and pre-1980's builds will always be more desirable.
Compare house price index vs rpi (1980s definition) vs gold
House prices are up around 4% year on year; gold is up over 25% in same period. The modest increase in house price is actually a big crash compared to real inflation. Need to compare everything with real inflation using 1980s definition, then people will realise most house price increases are just due to inflation, aka money printing.
No matter the economic situation....... PEOPLE........ HAVE TO.............. . LIVE.................. . SOMEWHERE *
Any video mentioning the "housing crisis" needs to also mention the immigration crisis
It’s all about inheritance. People inherit money and it’s a natural instinct to use cash to buy a larger house. A shortage of housing exacerbates the problem. SIMPLE answer !
Houses need to be seen as homes. Not a asset for greedy barstools to make Mega money from!! 😡
government just need to build loads of council flats like they did in the 1960s and 1970s. People act like its more complicated that it really is.
Those house price increase charts do not account for inflation. House prices in 2024 are exactly the same as in 2004 when inflation is taken into account.
YEAH, Someone who understands!
Correct! I have bought two BTL flats this year - both at a price of 2004!
Inflation. Gives a higher price tag but has it increased the value of the house.
Shopping has doubled since covid..bottled water etc.my house hasn't increased
Check BRICS. Dedollarization will cause hyper inflation in the US. FED rates have been considered by some bankers at 8%. The BofE has to keep parity and you can guess the rest. 80% of mortgages in 2022 (peak) were fixed rate as opposed to 20% in the 2009 crash. This has slowed the crash rate, but as more come off fixed, so prices will be effected. I think price attrition will continue for 3 to 5 years. World economies will continue to fail.
"mass immigration has little effect on house prices"
After that statement, I knew pretty much to ignore everything you said afterwards.
If all immigration was halted tomorrow, including repatriation of those here, house prices would fall heavily. Especially large properties in central London, and former family homes, carved into HMOs in poorer areas. Just look at the local council and cerco with their desperate adds for rental property or compulsory purchase. Or the immediate falls in the highest end properties each time, following sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
When the most expensive city in the nation - London - has become minority indigenous 42% over the past two decades (our other large cities are on the same trajectory), and fully 2/3 of new births have been born to non British citizens, you see the problem. There would have been a sharpish fall in population, and less demand, all things equal.
The inward population numbers is not an accident. There has been a precieptous fall in UK productivity since the 2008 crisis, despite a large increase in debt liabilities to service debts. In the absence or real, productivity lead growth, headline GDP figures are bolstered by inward migration numbers. Without it, bond prices would fall hard on international markets. Selling off property for speculation, by demand created by inward migration, is the main economic growth engine now for GDP.
So, the question is really about how much longer voters and politicians can bribe each other over continued mass immigration into the UK, money printing and tax transfers to existing property and land owners, to keep the Ponzi running, before the democracy Vs civil war tension can play out.
We are in a neo-feudal nation now, so all analysis must start from the calculation of how that structure can continue survival without revolt, and how long money can be extracted from non property owners to enrich property owners in a rigged economy. Perhaps forever, given the increasing encroachment into civil rights and free speech, we currently witness. It just isn't an economics issue now, apart from the forecasting of the day a USSR style collapse is forced onto the UK by a black swan event, to expose the contradictions. That, or a swing to libertarian economic policy, but we know that's unlikely as politicians MUST prop up the Ponzi to stay in power.
Supply and demand analysis of the UK property "market" 😉 is just boomer cope or gas lighting. In the same way economic analysis of the Soviet economy was meaningless, until the day it collapsed all of a sudden, but without any prediction date by economists.
I completely agree with you on his sentiments about mass immigration. This is the first video I’ve watched from this guy, but I feel like he’s ignoring the elephant in the room.
Always adjust for inflation. You welcone.
Why parents should not help their children if they can?? And yes when a generation replaces another there is transfer of wealth from one to another,,.it has been the case for thousands of years…The UK economic system is build on increasing real estate prices over long term…those who can’t see it and stay on the sideline will suffer by getting stuck on the renting ladder..Real average house prices are stuck as same level for 20 years..it’s time for average real income levels to increase because this is where the problem on the UK is…stagnated real incomes for the majority of population for the last 10/15 years..
The world is so fucked that housing is an asset rather than a right everyone should be able to afford
I think I have the solution:
De-commodify housing now, not later, not in 10-15 years, now.
Or at least the majority of it, to still give people the opportunity to own something private if they really want to.
But for most people’s cases, they just want a roof over their heads and nothing more, increasing the opinion amongst younger people, myself and yourself included, that housing should be a guaranteed right and a basic living standard to be met.
Interest rates didn't go through the roof" in 2022 the simply visited a normal level
i dont belive that house prices are as high as owners state if you factor in inflation and what you measure the increase in if you use currency yes they have but if yiu culculate house prices in gold ounces house prices are at a 40 year low. what the common person forgets is it is your currency being inflated not only your house price increasing. the only entity make money from houses are the mortgage companies
So it’s inflation not taking into account. The fact that money is going down in value so it’s not really the house price is going up as much as he say it is.
I think you are downplaying the impact of around 15 million additional people on the impact of the housing sector.
If the UK kicked out every single immigrant tomorrow the idea that housing prices wouldn't collapse by several factors is beyond absurd. An Economist should understand the affect of supply and demand. The extra demand 15 million people added to housing was likely the most important factor on price rises for at least the last 10 years if not the last 20.
Shout this louder. The 'elephant' in the room that if you try to address you're racist.
The 15 million immigrants that help prop this country up?
Demographics are the problem with this observation. Ignore it at your peril. In a society where the current working age population pay the pensions of the retried, as that ratio changes so does the cost to those of working age. Housing people is the problem choosing to construct that housing isn't in the interest of the wealthy. As inequality increases so will the compounding effect of the wealthiest having the ability to purchase the assets of the middle and lower incomes classes and so will their capital and income streams from it. Remove immigrants from the nation and all you will have is a society without sufficient workforce to support the infrastructure or the elderly literally societal collapse a recession of monumental depth. Paying people sufficiently they can afford an acceptable standard of living is a choice.
Who’s going look after the elderley folks? Staff the nhs? Without immigration uk would collapse within 2 weeks, uk house prices would be the least problem you’d have…
@@naheemhaneef123i don t think that all the immigrants are looking after the elderly and working in healthcare.
U.K. Population has doubled in 100 years though, but ultimately with the advancements in technology like Microsoft Teams, I will only travel into the office a max of twice a week.
Live in Scotland, work in London.
Simple.
When interest rates went through the roof? ???6%
When you have only ever experienced artificially low interests it's a big shock when they return to historic norms.
He misses the most important figure: rental yield, because when this remains high, then there will always be buyers in the market EVEN IF SALARIED INDIVIDUALS CANNOT AFFORD IT, others can. Such as asset managers and any company or individual who is cash rich…especially elites looking to diversify their portfolios away from stocks and bonds.
The elites as you call them invest in commercial property, not home rentals. They don't want the hassle of dealing with the great unwashed as tenants.
A seller refused to consider offers below 278k 6 months ago. Listed again a week ago and is up for 265k lol😂.
This is a common mistake in my area of Swale and they are just following the market down. The game is nearly up for the US ecconomy, as the government run out of money for subsidises for failing businesses like Intel.
We need another crash and reset to restore actual values in the markets.
Greed never ends well
this
First of all average salary in the Uk is about £35 grand a year. Comparing numbers like for like is silly.
Secondly the UK housing market isn't in a bubble. The US housing market is. The UK actually has a shortage of housing and prices are kept high by demand for new homes not from suppliers expecting absurd returns. It isn't uncommon for houses to receive even a 20% markup on asking price in the UK.
Its so bad people have stopped working because they don't believe they will ever be able to afford a new home.
£265k for a house is very cheap (compared with Canada and Australia). Let's go and buy a few.
7:52 House price increase of 2% per year? I think I’ll leave money in the bank earning 4% per year!
@@rinnin If house prices are increasing by 2% per year and you think it’s better to leave your money in the bank earning 4%, the logic is flawed for several reasons:
1. Real Return After Inflation:
While your savings account might give you 4% interest, inflation can reduce your actual purchasing power. For instance, if inflation is 3%, your real return is only 1%. Meanwhile, the 2% increase in house prices might actually outpace the real value growth of your savings.
2. Long-Term Appreciation of Housing:
House prices tend to appreciate over time, often by more than 2% annually, especially when considering the long term. Historically, real estate has proven to be a strong investment. Even if house prices are only increasing by 2% right now, over the long term, they could increase at a much higher rate, leading to significant capital gains. Keeping your money in a bank might miss out on this potential appreciation.
3. Leveraging Real Estate Investment:
When buying a house, you typically use leverage (mortgages), meaning you can control a larger asset with less upfront money. This leverage amplifies your returns. For instance, a 2% increase on a $300,000 house is $6,000, which is much higher than a 4% interest on a smaller bank balance.
4. Housing as a Tangible Asset:
Housing provides not just potential appreciation but also utility-you can live in it or rent it out, which offers financial benefits beyond the price increase alone. By contrast, savings in a bank only accumulate interest and don’t provide any tangible benefits.
5. Opportunity Cost of Not Owning a Home:
If house prices are rising, delaying the purchase of a home could mean you’ll need more money later to buy the same property. Even a 2% annual increase can make houses more expensive over time, eroding the purchasing power of your savings.
In summary, focusing solely on a 2% annual rise in house prices compared to a 4% bank return ignores factors like inflation, the long-term potential for home appreciation, the benefits of leveraging, and the tangible utility of owning property.
I think you’re thinking like a Brexiteer, no disrespect intended.
Your money in the bank is being destroyed by inflation. So living your money in the bank is losing game. Don’t do it .
@@rinnin If house prices are increasing by 2% per year and you think it’s better to leave your money in the bank earning 4%, the logic is flawed for several reasons:
1. Real Return After Inflation:
While your savings account might give you 4% interest, inflation can reduce your actual purchasing power. For instance, if inflation is 3%, your real return is only 1%. Meanwhile, the 2% increase in house prices might actually outpace the real value growth of your savings.
2. Long-Term Appreciation of Housing:
House prices tend to appreciate over time, often by more than 2% annually, especially when considering the long term. Historically, real estate has proven to be a strong investment. Even if house prices are only increasing by 2% right now, over the long term, they could increase at a much higher rate, leading to significant capital gains. Keeping your money in a bank might miss out on this potential appreciation.
3. Leveraging Real Estate Investment:
When buying a house, you typically use leverage (mortgages), meaning you can control a larger asset with less upfront money. This leverage amplifies your returns. For instance, a 2% increase on a $300,000 house is $6,000, which is much higher than a 4% interest on a smaller bank balance.
4. Housing as a Tangible Asset:
Housing provides not just potential appreciation but also utility-you can live in it or rent it out, which offers financial benefits beyond the price increase alone. By contrast, savings in a bank only accumulate interest and don’t provide any tangible benefits.
5. Opportunity Cost of Not Owning a Home:
If house prices are rising, delaying the purchase of a home could mean you’ll need more money later to buy the same property. Even a 2% annual increase can make houses more expensive over time, eroding the purchasing power of your savings.
In summary, focusing solely on a 2% annual rise in house prices compared to a 4% bank return ignores factors like inflation, the long-term potential for home appreciation, the benefits of leveraging, and the tangible utility of owning property.
@@victoredwards3959yep, Dad bought first house for 6000, that same house is now over 500K, sold his car to buy it. In the bank that same money is near worthless.
So where you going to live?
let us build our own houses stop the big companies buying up all the land
Property speculations will cost the British their whole country.
Imagine if you constantly added to the population by a thousand every few days.... would look a bit 'dinghy' wouldn't it for house availability.
Why UK forecasts are much diffrent than eu or germany? In eu we expect lower and lower hause prices.
In the UK, the house prices are manipulated like some big shots do in stocks..
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
whilst rents are so high and rise each year, buying makes more sense, house price £200,000, deposit 10% leaves a mortgage of £180,000 with capital and interest payment of £858 per month at 4%, some deals out there at this rate, but to rent the same property is £995 per month, which would you prefer
Renting makes moving house easier … buying is great if you know that you want to live in the same house for the next 20-30 years.
Don't forget the costs of stamp duty, legal, mortgage survey, insurance, maintenance, ongoing minor refurb etc when you buy outright. None of these apply when you rent. Plus the opportunity cost of not investing the 20k deposit. And a 'forever home' is rare, so you have all these costs again when you sell, with the hope that the price of your home has increased in the meantime....
@@kevinsyd2012 Also opportunity costs of being stuck having to live in the same house for 30+ years.
If you buy a house in Newcastle, but then a job opportunity opens up for you with a good salary, but it requires you to live in London, then you are kind of tied down to living in the house you are paying a mortgage on.
Also, if you buy a house in an area, and crime in the area increases, the value of property decreases etc. you are pretty much stuck living there.
Renting would be better at those figures, you're saving 150 per month, but annually you'll pay more than £1800 in upkeep.
Boilers break, windows fail, carpet needs changing, kitchens get old, bathrooms get old.. it's always something.
Tbf the landlord will also want to sell at that price as he'll not make a profit so you can't win either way.