@@AlexCarroll Exactly; trade up, across or trade down buying would happen in any market; booming, busting or in-between. it's all relative to people who bought quite some time ago. However, the majority of people will ride the market down just as they rode it up; by sitting on the couch. The FTBs, speculators and other "have to sell" vendors will see to that when they establish new, lower comps in now-correcting markets.
Of course Victoria won't "survive"; the only reason prices got so high there is because of spill over from the GVRD which is now on what will be the last downward leg.
So in your mind, prices in Victoria have risen “ONLY” because of demand driven by buyers that accumulated wealth as a consequence of Vancouver real estate?
@@billferguson1368 how does your argument reconcile the fact that between 11-12% of buyers in Victoria BC in 2021-2022 (during the boom phase) were from the lower mainland?
@@AlexCarroll Not sure of your point. In any case, if a 4.5% BoC rate was enough to make the GVRD market turn turtle in 2008, a 4.75% rate now will be more than enough to crush the markets both here and in Victoria, particularly in light of the massive price gains/bloated mortgages/increased aggregate debt loads since then. The only thing that turned things around was the massive interventions by Canada's Plunge Protection team to stop that GFC-era correction dead in it's tracks. Back then, Harper's Feds allowed 0% down payments and 40 year amorts; that, coupled with a BoC rate of 0.50% by the end of Q4, 2009 is what re-ignited things. The GVRD market was also in full correction mode in late 2019 with a BoC rate of 1.75%. Again, the massive COVID-era flood of liquidity only (with a BoC rate reduced to 0.25%) piled it on higher and deeper. In short, it was still a massive bubble then and was inflated into an even bigger one during the pandemic. Guess what? It's now payback time so, clear the rubble, lay the brick.
Remember too, housing corrections are always about price drops, not "sales". When everything is finally said and done (all housing booms end in busts) people focus on who made out like a bandit, who broke even and who got clobbered. So, expect a lot of clobbering; both individually and for the broader economy.
Do you think prices go higher? Lower? Or flat from here?
I don't know who could afford such prices. I mean mass market
@@C_Fak942 If you bought a house in any major market more than 5 years ago, it’s just moving dollars from one place to another.
Lower; housing corrections aren't known to go sideways or, to stop half way, either.
@@AlexCarroll
Exactly; trade up, across or trade down buying would happen in any market; booming, busting or in-between. it's all relative to people who bought quite some time ago. However, the majority of people will ride the market down just as they rode it up; by sitting on the couch.
The FTBs, speculators and other "have to sell" vendors will see to that when they establish new, lower comps in now-correcting markets.
😱 *Promo sm*
YOu need to get rid of Trudeau,..
Ok I’m on it!
Of course Victoria won't "survive"; the only reason prices got so high there is because of spill over from the GVRD which is now on what will be the last downward leg.
So in your mind, prices in Victoria have risen “ONLY” because of demand driven by buyers that accumulated wealth as a consequence of Vancouver real estate?
@@AlexCarroll Yep; the GVRD is always the epicentre of every boom and bust in this province. After all, it always has to start/end "somewhere".
@@billferguson1368 how does your argument reconcile the fact that between 11-12% of buyers in Victoria BC in 2021-2022 (during the boom phase) were from the lower mainland?
@@AlexCarroll
Not sure of your point.
In any case, if a 4.5% BoC rate was enough to make the GVRD market turn turtle in 2008, a 4.75% rate now will be more than enough to crush the markets both here and in Victoria, particularly in light of the massive price gains/bloated mortgages/increased aggregate debt loads since then. The only thing that turned things around was the massive interventions by Canada's Plunge Protection team to stop that GFC-era correction dead in it's tracks.
Back then, Harper's Feds allowed 0% down payments and 40 year amorts; that, coupled with a BoC rate of 0.50% by the end of Q4, 2009 is what re-ignited things.
The GVRD market was also in full correction mode in late 2019 with a BoC rate of 1.75%. Again, the massive COVID-era flood of liquidity only (with a BoC rate reduced to 0.25%) piled it on higher and deeper. In short, it was still a massive bubble then and was inflated into an even bigger one during the pandemic.
Guess what? It's now payback time so, clear the rubble, lay the brick.
Remember too, housing corrections are always about price drops, not "sales".
When everything is finally said and done (all housing booms end in busts) people focus on who made out like a bandit, who broke even and who got clobbered.
So, expect a lot of clobbering; both individually and for the broader economy.