Or the guy who is going to get it wrong again in 2024. He said in 2022 that prices were going to drop in 2023 and there would be all these buying opportunities in late 2023 or early 2024. Notice how he neglected to mention that when showing his own graph with prices up.? Now how he's saying the same thing again, just moved everything back one year.
@johnnylongstocking183 the man's showing statistics and data which don't have an opinion or feelings on what's going to happen. Believe you want obviously, ill stick with what he puts out even if it doesn't go the way the data shows.
@@rpmatt2022 the very same data that shows Jon was completely wrong in 2023. If it makes you feel better to believe he will be correct in 2024 that is all good.
I live in Vancouver, and went to an open house 30k below BC assessment. There were around 50 groups there. Jon, love your videos. Keeps me from making bad real estate decisions
After 40 years of interest rates dropping and dropping, almost ALL Canadians think that falling rates are the norm, just like the sun rises in the morning and falls in the evening. So they are 100% convinced that rates will drop back down to near zero and the value of their houses will zoom back up to where it was. The only thing that will change this view is the banks coming along and foreclosing on their houses after they fail to pay their mortgage for a few months, which is going to start happeing in large numbers pretty soon.
Great update Jon. Sellers need to face reality, this isn't Jan/Feb 2022 when we saw the peek of home prices. I wouldn't be surprised if the BoC holds off on rate cuts, inflation isn't going down. I don't see any conclusive sustained "recovery" until late 2025 at best.
Happy new year John! The simple chart where you break down the message AND the source is some real top shelf JOURNALISM that these “news rooms” should be ashamed they aren’t providing to the people. Hats off to you sir!
There's an election this November in America so no matter what the news is or what the economic conditions are they'll still cut interest rates in America then the Bank of Canada will cut and rents will go to $5,000 a month for a one bedroom apartment.
High immigration rates definitely affect the market but if you do the math we only have 0.5% less Supply since 2018, and prices have gone up 67% on average. I believe that Realtors over focus on that issue to emotionally manipulate people into fomo thinking
Exactly and the prices went up while the boarders closed (so no one come in in 2020 and 2022 tell middle of 2023 …so no population increase…but the prices doubled and tripled
@@SalamNaser-c6h yes I considered that but we still had immigration during lockdowns believe it or not. Your point Still Remains perfectly valid since prices had already ballooned *before* immigration surpassed average levels. (Especially when you account for the Market delay) People also forget that Canadians are only having 1.4 children per couple when it needs to be 2.1. People also ignore the type of immigrants we are getting. I mean no disrespect, but it's not like they are buying up all the houses.
Really can’t see too much of a price drop anymore. Maybe slightly for the next few months but where you see the biggest drop offs in prices are locations that took advantage of bigger price tags outside of major cities. Along with the high end homes that the average Canadian can’t afford. These are the two groups that will see any major change in pricing. Carleton place outside of Ottawa had 800-900k townhomes in the peak which are now selling for 500-600k.
We would also like to know the realtors from BC whom we can trust and who works not just for commission but in the best interest of their clients. Realtors do not educate them either during the process of buying or selling and people have to search for real information. Keep sharing good stuff it's helping people make informed decision and have a look into market trend.
@@Autonomous15must have been responding to another comment with a recommendation but put my response under yours by accident. Good comment, I’ve been searching for a realtor in Burnaby and it’s as you described.
Your forecast that prices were going to drop alot in 2023 was completely wrong so what is going to be different in 2024? There were also supposed to be all these buying opportunities in late 2023 and early 2024 you said a year ago. Where are they?
I have Detached house in Innisfil . Two years ago I was getting 1.6 M. Now nobody is buying in 1 Million. I lost in two years 6 hundred thousand. Jon is right. I think lots of realtors doesn’t like Honest realtor .
@@queen544 one example is not representative of an entire neighborhood let alone an entire city or country. Not doubting your own personal experience but even Jon's own chats show how wrong he was about the 2023 market. Jon can't help himself from saying the market is going to crash. He is a realtor that only does a couple of sales in a year so it's not like he has any sense of the market.
True but to be fair I think we’ve all been wrong on and off in our predictions over the last year, we cant really know anything for certain in this market. There were a lot of agents guaranteeing rate cuts early 2024 too.
@@MentionBiscuit except that Jon continues to act like he knows exactly where the market is going. When he gets it wrong, he never owns up to it. Watch what will happen if he is wrong again this year.
I think sales volume is going to track with affordability. Until house prices come down, sales volume will remain low. Sounds obvious, but so many people disagree with such a simple statement.
And we Canadians want that to happen so everyone can afford a house. It's a necessity though It's made a luxury with unscrupulous people in real estate.
A close friend witnessed Phil Sopher state in a private meeting “ the market is collapsing” I will deny this publicly”. Confirms what some of us now. He’s a liar. So is crew’s economist. When he speaks you can tell by his tone of voice and staccato style of speech that he is lying .Thank you John for your unending integrity. Bull markets die when there are no buyers left. We have buyers that refuse to buy or people who can’t qualify. Bottom line few buyers.
Thanks Jon! Great to see you in our nation's capital. Hopefully you dropped by the PMO and lent them your economic expertise, because they sure as hell need help!
Like, don't take pricing advice from a realtor (especially when he says sales are low). Sales are his income. Realtors notably will underprice your home because a couple hundred thousand less for you is still a great commission for him. Shop around your neighbourhood to see prices. Go to open houses to compare your house with the others in the area. If it's too low, try to hold out, but also take note of what your house has that's unique. But never take pricing advice from an interested realtor. Also, btw, make sure your contract - if you're not private selling, which I recommend - states that commission is paid when you ACCEPT an offer, not when an offer of full price or higher is MADE. That leaves you having to pay commission even if you decide against accepting it because you have an idea someone else might offer more now or in a few months.
have also studied several areas for the last 10 years and many of the houses seen have been relisted for several years, perhaps holding out but when they are relisted very few are at a lower price but many are at much higher prices which lead me to think they most likely belong to Investors/flippers. In the Last 3 years many that have not sold in the last 6 months have come down but not enough and 6 months later they are listed again and again. If sellers want to sell they will bring the price down but believe the coming list of mortgage renewals coming due is going to be a major reality slap in the face for homeowners... New buyers are few and far apart, confidence in the Canadian government and the economy is at all time low, I would not expect any changes in buyers confidence....
Sellers are waiting for the next wave of stupidity. There too narrow minded and greedy to think that anything will change. Some will pull there heads out of the sand. Most will not, until it's too late.
Thanks for the info but now alot of experts in social media people are confused who to listen I see alot empty houses for sale in my area but salers think the internet will drop so there not in a hurry to sale thanks again
Thanks Jon! Love the content. I live in Vancouver and seeing how the market has followed the weather this winter. It's very reassuring to see a realtor speak to a more accurate representation of the market. Keep it up!
You know when you try to break a stick holding both ends and bending it, sellers are at that stage now, holding the strain. Some cracks are already there, but the break has yet to come. Its about time that happens and flow of losses start
We've hit a pivotal point where the Americans have their inflation under control and are able to slowly drop their rates. This won't really impact American homeowners much as many them have much longer mortgages and aren't nearly as leveraged as Canadian homeowners. Meanwhile most of the Canadian economy is already rapidly slowing except the real estate sector, food prices and travel. The Canadian CPI inflation at 3.4^% due to the overvalued real estate sector and rents. I expect to see a big divergence between the 2 countries going forward. Canada is stuck in a very difficult situation. If the BOC follows the Fed, we will see home prices spike creating a disasterous situation. If they don't we will tip into a much more severe recession. Our economy is so imbalanced we really are in a horrible situation.
@@wewons I would disagree. In Canada, 3-5 yr mortgages are the norm. This isn't the case in the US. Unless the States sees a major issue like in 2008, most homeowners in the US aren't going to get smashed. Whereas, in Toronto, Vancouver and to a lesser extent Montreal, we have people massively leveraged to their homes. Home prices in Toronto are 162 per cent higher than what a median-earning family can afford, while home prices in Vancouver are 195 per cent higher. The average price pre set ft for a condo is 1400 bucks in Toronto. 700 sq ft is pushing a million bucks. 2000 sq ft houses are 1.5-2 million. And believe me, at the lower end of that it's a fixer upper. Canada is wildly out of whack when it comes to real estate. Wages haven't even come close to tracking home prices in the last 20 yrs. Wages have increased 25-30% since 2003 while home prices have spiked 500% in Toronto. It's that staggering.
@@BellaBella-jw9ef they may well have issues coming but their economy is so diverse they will easily power through. Canada is still a one dimensional economy that basically lives and dies on oil. And as a crutch, we’ve developed a crazy reliance on a non productive sector in the last 22 yrs ie Real estate. In fact, it’s basically developed into a pyramid scheme leaving basic fundamentals in the dust. This sector is a necessity and a foundation for wealth retention but it should never be a driving force in our economy. The American Fed announced 3 int rate cuts because they are watching the divergence between GDP and GDI. Look that one up. I don’t want to get too political but we need leaders who will take some very dramatic moves to increase housing supply, build private coop ownership, cut major taxes, like land transfer, development fees, & GST on new housing. The cost of a new home is 25-30% taxes. And get the municipal councillors out of the way. And drop immigration until they are able to provide homes, schooling and healthcare infrastructure for the people wanting to move here.
I have just sold my house in Duncan BC to move to Victoria BC. I have a large down payment to purchase a condo at around 700k My realtor told me to rent as the market will be dropping significantly. in the next two years and I can save 100's of thousands of dollars. I agreed with his advice and am sitting on the sidelines keenly waiting for my opportunity.
00:02:15 Remax Forcast: 2024 Price Outlook: +0.5%. "Not very bullish, but mildly increasing sales and prices." With the CPI at about +3.5%, those prices are falling in real dollars. If housing prices remain flat and the CPI remains where it's at, then a slow steady decline in the real price of homes is happening.
Thanks for the research. I think the realestate market depends heavily on the rate of immigration. If that reduces, then we will finally see prices come down to a realistic level
Every sale in the last few years in Cape Breton have sold below assessed value in my area. Yet my assessment went up by 21%. Wait till Toronto gets hit with rate increases.
@@JeffSSartorthose imported buyers don’t have a lot of cash, if you are referring to international students. Yes one thing for sure, there are a lot of flippers in the game, and I know they are at the breaking point.
Thanks Jon. Do you see parallels between the US rate cut optimism and the failed BoC pause from last year? I would even argue that the US consumers are stronger than Canadians were when Tiff paused. So what would justify cuts in the US? I think the markets are getting it wrong by jumping to premature cuts.
I think Canada has to stay close to the U.S. when it comes to interest rates. This time Canada raised first and looks like we will be the last to start cutting.
Just something worth "knowing" through the 90s into I think was the crash of 2008, the military would use tax dollars to reimburse any military member whose property price dropped because of the market, up to 100% of their loses including upgrades etc. So absolutely no risk whatsoever and not being cynical but I wonder if anyone sold really low to profit from this legislation? I certainly enjoy your lectures!
I have tried two detached properties in Durham Region(Oshawa and Whitby) under the range of 670k to 780k. Both of them got 25-28 offers. I think this range remains competitive for first time homebuyers and the first time home buyers are only pushed to this region.
Think of how many people's time they're wasting by listing 100-200K under market price so they get 20+ offers. How far off was your offer from the selling price?
Could one not look at this charting the other way. Like Warren buffet. Buy when others are fearful. If market sentiment is an all time low along with sales, is this not the perfect time to buy? Eventually markets will ease, Canadians are still in desperate need of more housing.
people aren't fearful, they just don't think now is a good time for a major purchase. I still see a lot more greed than fear which makes sense since we still haven't hit the fear stage of the asset bubble
I made an offer on a house in Caledonia the seller is saying too low while similar house to that is sitting on the market for almost 4 months for 50K lower what he is asking
I can't comment on it since you're most likely working with a realtor but if it was me, I'd wait a week or two and offer $10K less than first offer. If it sells in the meantime oh well.
I've never called a bottom, above I gave a 2 year window which was an opinion. I've said constantly "buying opportunities" will start end of this year into 2025 sometime.@@johnnylongstocking128
@@jonflynn funny how you claim to have not said things that you clearly have in previous videos or comments. You said buying opportunities in late 2023 into early 2024 and that the bottom was in 2024. Do you ever admit you got something wrong?
Or builders are building less homes because they can't get the high asking prices they want either. So they will wait it out and build when rates are lower. They will continue to build what is on the go already but build less new homes.
Builders are building less homes because it costs them so much to build that it's not even worth their investment anymore. The high cost of materials, labor, development and permit costs. Canada is a ridiculous place for developers to do business now. And all the while they get treated like crap
@@Joe-mz6dc I agree, builders won't jump in with just an interest rate cut. Need a recession to bring the cost of everything else down, materials, land and govt fees in particular
Love the Rideau Canal backdrop. Too bad it was only open for 1.5 days. I suppose that's better than the 0 days last year. Also, that Blair Witch pose of the skater on our right is super creepy. 😮😂
real estate investing is a part of the retirement plan that could be better than RRSP GIC or mutual funds by applying leverage and capital gain exemptions. And doesn’t matter how much is down from the peak as diferent people have time horizons. Houses are not stocks to time and sell
The cost of materials are up! To build the same home it will cost me three times to build, the banks are thieves, they don’t deny it, look at their profits!!
It fell as low as 2.1 times the husbands gross annual salary for a new detached home in the early 1970's in the GTA. Before the late 1970's it was always based on one salary the husband's.
horrible depression coming all because of bankers. As David Rosenberg said all recessions and depressions are caused by bankers. We must end central banking. Every religion declares charging interest is a sin. Interest charges increases inflation and keeps us enslaved.@@jonflynn
The wrench in all those predictions will be the employment / unemployment rate. if the unemployment rate increases substantially, price and sells will likely stay flat or decline.
I have shared much of the same sentiment as you Jon, I just don't know how things can continue like this forever given the price to income rations being so high. Affordability is affordability, people only make so much. Yet housing prices nationwide are down somewhere around 20% ish from the Covid peak. I could see them going down another 10 maybe 20% before a series of interest rate decreases start to put another floor in...when that happens, probably in the last half of 2024 or 2025 (but it's anyone's guess). What are your thoughts on how far down we could go from here and what sort of timeline?
Prices are currently averaging 30 percent decrease from the peak in the GTA ( February 2022). If you account for the opportunity cost on your money over the last 2 years the real price drop is closer to 40 percent. Rates will only drop when unemployment starts increasing. Prices will fall another 10-15 percent from 30 percent drop on average where we are today in the GTA. Power of Sales are coming next. Negative amortizations cannot go on forever. Auditors will for banks to do a full write-down at some point.
My timeline is based of historical trends. Prices will continue to decline as rate cuts start. Bottom may take a while due to all the renewals who will still be renewing at higher rates than they’re currently paying. So price declines continue until at least 2026-2027. Even when rates start dropping existing mortgagors will be seeing higher payments for 1-2 years at least as they renew.
How can anyone take Royal leopard seriously with a statement like that? That’s irresponsible and seems desperate to fool buyers into just getting into the market. Prices literally NEED to go lower. We can’t continue to rack up the amounts of debt we’re in. Lots of people own multiple houses in Canada because they were able to leverage their quickly growing equity to buy more houses. How is that fair to future generations? We’re all stuck in a rut because of high prices. Greater fool theory, if I buy this at this price, someone else will pay more down the road.
Well in our case we were renting a condo and the owners decided to sell. Ergo, we had two choices. 1. We could find another place to rent at more than double what we were currently paying, or 2. Just go ahead and purchase. Obviously the smart thing to do is purchase, otherwise we're just continuing to throw our money away at twice the rate we were in the past. That's the dilemma now for many people, because many investors are starting to offload their investment properties (which contain renters) so that they can get out of the market at what they perceive to be the top.
What I find interesting is not that Jon says that the prices are going down in 2024 (and has been saying that for years)....it's that literally every expert and economist says prices will likely increase when rates slowly drop this year.
Finally someone else sees through his nonsense. When prices don't come down this year, he will just say you have to wait another year. There is a reason this guy only does a couple of deals a year.
Those rate cut will mostly only affect the 1 and 2 year mortgages but it will affect the variable rate ones. The 5, 7 and 10 year mortgages will fall the least percentage-wise.
If you are Bearish on this market, at least you are honest. Any realtor trying to say it's going to kick off again is just showing their ignorance regarding basic economics. House price to income ratio of 15:1 is ridiculous. It should be 3-5:1 in the cities, maybe 7:1 in top areas. New York is 10:1.... Canada is averaging over 13:1 with some areas being higher like Victoria being 15:1. Any realtor that says anything different than what you are saying here... is chasing a commission and not looking out for the best interest of the client.
@@Scarz99 I am looking to buy and hoping to do so in Powell River BC. But the point is people who think that this market can continue upwards into infinity have no basic fundamental understanding of the economics of the situation. Immigration won't prop this market up. The average immigrant make $30k/yr. These prices are completely unaffordable and they will fall no matter what any realtor thinks or says. Realtors, in general have a limited understanding of the macroeconomics of the global bubble that has been created. Mr. Flynn is at least being honest with what the outlook is for real estate. People might not like it, but he's being honest. Of course I'm hoping for prices to go down. So should you. The quicker we actually find a bottom (which this isn't it) the sooner we can dig our way out and get back to a "normal".
@@jonflynn Thank you for being willing to take an honest look at what is going on. As I have said before most realtors are taking an unrealistic view that this can continue. Just from this honest perspective if I were in Ontario instead of BC I would heavily consider you for any real estate transactions. Most realtors (at least that I have seen) are pushing the narrative that this will continue and it simply can't. There will be pain. People will lose their houses and/or significant money if they bought during the frenzy. It's not a fun thing to report to people but it's the truth they need to hear. The BoC doesn't care about you losing your house. They have one mandate "stable prices". And with housing being around 20% of GDP the government will do everything they can to maintain some of that, but that isn't likely to continue forever either. I remember walking the halls of empty new apartments in the 90s. It looks like we might be headed for something similar, or potentially worse. Thanks for the honest report.
One I can say for sure: I can see online is the same houses for sale as few months ago… look like owners can sell … and I am as a buyer don’t want to pay more than 2.5k for my mortgage( Winnipeg) and don’t really care lower rate or lower price, realistically middle class in Manitoba can’t make it and our province is one of the most affordable… And most I don’t understand, how the fukk people from Ontario or BC getting those houses, they are getting only like 5k extra per year to compare what we got here… so how they can afford 1.5mln house idtkn
They ride on the coattails of the Chinese knowing prices can never fall. No matter what the price is the price will always go higher usually doubling every 5 years no matter what wages are.
Oversupply of oil will run out early in the summer, this has been said on most major media around the world. There plan is to get back to restricting the supply to justify upping the price. Higher gas prices are forcasted to follow. Thus increasing inflation, panama canal problem hasnt really been felt yet, but thats coming too. People dont talk about things like this. These are the things the BOC look at though. The path to 2 is not clear. Unemployment rate is the only thing that will get rates lowered. This is the world I live in. Lol People should look at things on a global scale, Canada is a little fish in a big pond, we dont really control were anything goes.
New year rush, lots of people coming out of the woodwork because they've been told prices will skyrocket once rates drop. Now that inflation is higher than expected rates won't drop as soon as expected so that rush may end soon. Recession still hasn't started.
@@jonflynnreal estate investing is a part of the retirement plan that could be better than RRSP GIC or mutual funds by applying leverage and capital gain exemptions. And doesn’t matter how much is down from the peak as diferent people have time horizons. Houses are not stocks to time and sell
You predicted or a year ago that we'll see 2018 home price are going to see them return to that price or not or are we still see sky high prices because I don't see home owners and real estate agents willing to lower there prices and agent taking cut in commission even if home owners who over pay by over bidding on homes and now having to renew there mortgage an are unable afford being force to sell for less and taking a lost an maybe never be able to buy other home I know some home owners may be force to do that and may still have a mortgage cause they couldn't sell to pay off the mortgage
If Jon actually thought we were going to see 2018 prices he would have sold his house at 2022 prices. He didn't because he knows 2018 prices are not coming back. All Jon cares about is clicks on his videos. He needs the ad revenue because he doesn't do many deals and half his office left.
@@johnnylongstocking128 How about you give it some time, and THEN be the judge? Say one suggests that the prices will plummet in August 2023. But guess what, that actually happens in say November 2024 or March 2025. You miss by a year - year and a half, that's all. It is a minor miss, but on the large scale still a decent guess. However, if nothing happens for the next 5 years, THEN you can say that it wasn't the best mathematical model that was constructed. The bottom line is we're all moving towards a gigantic waterfall. A few bumps down the road here and there, global events stop or accelerate down the road...etc, and you miscalculate by say a year. But, dear sir, the numbers DON'T LIE! You can love it or hate it, but we ARE heading for a rough ride here! If you don't see this, I actually envy you!
@@Nemija you are right the numbers do not lie. Jon has been wrong for YEARS now with his predictions. But lets use you logic. I am now predicting that home prices in Canada are going to raise 15% in 2024. But if they don't that is ok, just wait until next year, or the year after that, maybe 2026. As long as they increase 15% at some point see I was right. Same logic.
The inflation is created by the higher interest rate. It will create more supply and more affordability if they drop the rate with government issuing permits efficiently.
Virtually all the immigrants coming to Canada are penniless. The 20k they get to get into Canada is money borrowed from loan sharks. They get here then head for the nearest food bank and hostel yes hostel not hotel.
I was thinking that with that many new comers to the country that housing pressure will not go down thus affecting the cost. Not all immigrants come with very little money, I would dare say not a lot come with the clothes on their backs. Refugees yes.
@@chadpescod-realtor3308 Prices are rising at the lower end of the housing market. Markham and Richmond as always will lead the entire Godden Horseshoe in price increases and the rest of the cities will follow with a lag period of time. My guess is prices will rise 10 to 12 percent this year and another 15 percent next year.
Here is the bottom line. We just had a pretty hard and fast quantitative tightening, and it still had prices stay high. What would happen when we start to see interest rates start to go down? Prices wouldn't be going down.
@sophielabelle3324 she's asking 689 000. People who work in TO came to Hamilton to buy cheaper homes before the pandemic and pushed up the prices, unfortunately. People are asking over half a million for 1000 square foot homes.
@sophielabelle3324 That's pretty expensive for me. Anything over 1800-2000 for a mortgage is too expensive here, with the median income being 75 000 a year.
Between 2020 and 2022 housing prices increased 80%. Well since then they have dropped over 20%. Here is the bottom line. That 80% gain is going to come out. One way or another. Most likely it will be 1-2% per month slow drip followed by the tanking in the summer. Why? Cause nowhere on planet earth with any housing bubble has it ever ended differently. Including Japan where they have just 2% available land. Why people are not selling ASAP and running with the gains is beyond me. But thats how it works. The smartest people leave with the most gains. That because they know the difference between selling when you can-not when you have to.
Lower their prices, or hold out till 2025 when the fed removes the ban on foreign home purchases? How much is that ban playing a part in the current housing market decline?
@@BriCam1 sorry to hear that, criminal. For the sake of folks like you I hope for reductions. It’s not the increase so much as the fact that it’s just evaporating to interest costs. The agents that walked a lot of folks into this mess can get bent.
@@BriCam1prices won’t go up because we are about to enter a very deep recession. Inflation is up so rates aren’t coming down. You would be wise to sell jow
@@MentionBiscuitthanks for that, yeah I guess we were stupid going variable, I personally call it predatorial lending by the Fed and the BoC. Wife is on maternity leave and in that time, payments from 3600 to 6 per month. My entire pay goes to the mortgage alone... very frustrating and hoping for something to give in the country, before we break
The buyers are stupid and with all of them being wrong they'll all wait too long to buy as always and then get shutout of the market forever for a second time.
More like 50 percent realtor driven overtaking prices must come down to affordable once again restore sanity raise interest rates further stop inflationary escalation once and for all🙈
Most bearish...perhaps. I would suggest the most logical, unbiased and factual realtor. Another excellent clip with value and facts.
Much appreciated, thanks for the comment
Or the guy who is going to get it wrong again in 2024. He said in 2022 that prices were going to drop in 2023 and there would be all these buying opportunities in late 2023 or early 2024. Notice how he neglected to mention that when showing his own graph with prices up.? Now how he's saying the same thing again, just moved everything back one year.
@johnnylongstocking183 the man's showing statistics and data which don't have an opinion or feelings on what's going to happen. Believe you want obviously, ill stick with what he puts out even if it doesn't go the way the data shows.
@@rpmatt2022 the very same data that shows Jon was completely wrong in 2023. If it makes you feel better to believe he will be correct in 2024 that is all good.
@johnnylongstocking183 guess we shall wait and see then.
I live in Vancouver, and went to an open house 30k below BC assessment. There were around 50 groups there. Jon, love your videos. Keeps me from making bad real estate decisions
vancouver market is fked.
Thanks for the support
BC assessment is BS. Vancouver market is BS.
@@letitallout123 The Ontario market delays the bc market by about 8-10 months so we will be like that soon.
They usually assess a home higher even if the house is trash and most buyers want something to live in majority are not project people @@-37driver
You are the most Bearish and unbiased realtor in Canada. Many Thanks for your great information, Jon. You are awesome..!!!
awesome thanks
After 40 years of interest rates dropping and dropping, almost ALL Canadians think that falling rates are the norm, just like the sun rises in the morning and falls in the evening. So they are 100% convinced that rates will drop back down to near zero and the value of their houses will zoom back up to where it was. The only thing that will change this view is the banks coming along and foreclosing on their houses after they fail to pay their mortgage for a few months, which is going to start happeing in large numbers pretty soon.
If u have never been burnt by the hot stove, why would u think it could hurt u.
Very true. Reality check coming soon.
Great update Jon. Sellers need to face reality, this isn't Jan/Feb 2022 when we saw the peek of home prices. I wouldn't be surprised if the BoC holds off on rate cuts, inflation isn't going down. I don't see any conclusive sustained "recovery" until late 2025 at best.
rate cuts won't happen until umemployment rises
Happy new year John! The simple chart where you break down the message AND the source is some real top shelf JOURNALISM that these “news rooms” should be ashamed they aren’t providing to the people. Hats off to you sir!
Awesome, much appreciated.
Your the most sensible realtor on UA-cam!
Thanks
Most logical realtor by far !
There are actually several other bearish realtors as well in Canada.
GREAT WORK!
Always enjoy your videos!
Cheers
I appreciate that!
I find it hard to believe we are going to see a rate decrease anytime soon.
I don't see it either. It would result in higher prices.
There's an election this November in America so no matter what the news is or what the economic conditions are they'll still cut interest rates in America then the Bank of Canada will cut and rents will go to $5,000 a month for a one bedroom apartment.
Same here
I don’t think you’re bearish…..I think you’re realistic and honest ……not many are
Awesome thanks
High immigration rates definitely affect the market but if you do the math we only have 0.5% less Supply since 2018, and prices have gone up 67% on average.
I believe that Realtors over focus on that issue to emotionally manipulate people into fomo thinking
Good point thanks for sharing
Exactly and the prices went up while the boarders closed (so no one come in in 2020 and 2022 tell middle of 2023 …so no population increase…but the prices doubled and tripled
@@SalamNaser-c6h yes I considered that but we still had immigration during lockdowns believe it or not. Your point Still Remains perfectly valid since prices had already ballooned *before* immigration surpassed average levels. (Especially when you account for the Market delay)
People also forget that Canadians are only having 1.4 children per couple when it needs to be 2.1.
People also ignore the type of immigrants we are getting. I mean no disrespect, but it's not like they are buying up all the houses.
Really can’t see too much of a price drop anymore. Maybe slightly for the next few months but where you see the biggest drop offs in prices are locations that took advantage of bigger price tags outside of major cities. Along with the high end homes that the average Canadian can’t afford. These are the two groups that will see any major change in pricing. Carleton place outside of Ottawa had 800-900k townhomes in the peak which are now selling for 500-600k.
We will see, thanks for the comment
We would also like to know the realtors from BC whom we can trust and who works not just for commission but in the best interest of their clients. Realtors do not educate them either during the process of buying or selling and people have to search for real information. Keep sharing good stuff it's helping people make informed decision and have a look into market trend.
We just made a purchase with Hasan Juma's help. He was excellent.
Will check him out thanks
@@jonflynn how is this a cognitive response?
@@Autonomous15must have been responding to another comment with a recommendation but put my response under yours by accident. Good comment, I’ve been searching for a realtor in Burnaby and it’s as you described.
Your forecast that prices were going to drop alot in 2023 was completely wrong so what is going to be different in 2024? There were also supposed to be all these buying opportunities in late 2023 and early 2024 you said a year ago. Where are they?
I have Detached house in Innisfil . Two years ago I was getting 1.6 M. Now nobody is buying in 1 Million. I lost in two years 6 hundred thousand. Jon is right. I think lots of realtors doesn’t like Honest realtor .
@@queen544 one example is not representative of an entire neighborhood let alone an entire city or country. Not doubting your own personal experience but even Jon's own chats show how wrong he was about the 2023 market. Jon can't help himself from saying the market is going to crash. He is a realtor that only does a couple of sales in a year so it's not like he has any sense of the market.
True but to be fair I think we’ve all been wrong on and off in our predictions over the last year, we cant really know anything for certain in this market.
There were a lot of agents guaranteeing rate cuts early 2024 too.
@@MentionBiscuit except that Jon continues to act like he knows exactly where the market is going. When he gets it wrong, he never owns up to it. Watch what will happen if he is wrong again this year.
@@queen544 Highway 400 takes 10 years off your life. Too many people must have figured it out.
I think sales volume is going to track with affordability. Until house prices come down, sales volume will remain low. Sounds obvious, but so many people disagree with such a simple statement.
very true, it makes sense and is clearly is was happened in late 2022 and 2023
And we Canadians want that to happen so everyone can afford a house. It's a necessity though It's made a luxury with unscrupulous people in real estate.
A close friend witnessed Phil Sopher state in a private meeting “ the market is collapsing” I will deny this publicly”. Confirms what some of us now. He’s a liar. So is crew’s economist. When he speaks you can tell by his tone of voice and staccato style of speech that he is lying .Thank you John for your unending integrity. Bull markets die when there are no buyers left. We have buyers that refuse to buy or people who can’t qualify. Bottom line few buyers.
Thanks for the interesting info.
I work andBurnaby and Vancouver. Honest upfront, understand difficulties faced by consumers.
Your content is much appreciated Jon…no hype.
thanks much appreciated
Thanks Jon! Great to see you in our nation's capital. Hopefully you dropped by the PMO and lent them your economic expertise, because they sure as hell need help!
Picture was from a couple of years ago, just browsing my photos for something wintery. It was my first time skating the Rideau though.
Like, don't take pricing advice from a realtor (especially when he says sales are low). Sales are his income. Realtors notably will underprice your home because a couple hundred thousand less for you is still a great commission for him. Shop around your neighbourhood to see prices. Go to open houses to compare your house with the others in the area. If it's too low, try to hold out, but also take note of what your house has that's unique. But never take pricing advice from an interested realtor.
Also, btw, make sure your contract - if you're not private selling, which I recommend - states that commission is paid when you ACCEPT an offer, not when an offer of full price or higher is MADE. That leaves you having to pay commission even if you decide against accepting it because you have an idea someone else might offer more now or in a few months.
If they don't cut rates on March 6th, I think prices will finally start to come down.
Too much competition in the Spring market.
Good point
This channel should have more 100k subscribers +
thanks
have also studied several areas for the last 10 years and many of the houses seen have been relisted for several years, perhaps holding out but when they are relisted very few are at a lower price but many are at much higher prices which lead me to think they most likely belong to Investors/flippers. In the Last 3 years many that have not sold in the last 6 months have come down but not enough and 6 months later they are listed again and again.
If sellers want to sell they will bring the price down but believe the coming list of mortgage renewals coming due is going to be a major reality slap in the face for homeowners...
New buyers are few and far apart, confidence in the Canadian government and the economy is at all time low, I would not expect any changes in buyers confidence....
Sellers are waiting for the next wave of stupidity.
There too narrow minded and greedy to think that anything will change.
Some will pull there heads out of the sand.
Most will not, until it's too late.
great points, thanks for sharing
An excellent assessment. Thanks.
Jen Hickey....excellent, honest realtor in Vancouver and area
Thanks for the info but now alot of experts in social media people are confused who to listen I see alot empty houses for sale in my area but salers think the internet will drop so there not in a hurry to sale thanks again
They will be in a hurry once fear sets in.
Wait a second! Were you officially awarded that title? How did I miss the awards ceremony!? Congrats, Jon!
Great video as always!
other realtors get awards for the most sales etc, I get for wishing the opposite lol
I have a realtor friend who reached out to me a few times every week, urging me to sale my house, and he is the most bearish realtor I know 😅
He is probably right. Things are going to get worse.
as long as you have somewhere to go, or if you're carrying a lot of debt then sounds like good advice.
Thanks Jon! Love the content. I live in Vancouver and seeing how the market has followed the weather this winter. It's very reassuring to see a realtor speak to a more accurate representation of the market. Keep it up!
thanks for the support
You know when you try to break a stick holding both ends and bending it, sellers are at that stage now, holding the strain. Some cracks are already there, but the break has yet to come. Its about time that happens and flow of losses start
great comparison
We've hit a pivotal point where the Americans have their inflation under control and are able to slowly drop their rates. This won't really impact American homeowners much as many them have much longer mortgages and aren't nearly as leveraged as Canadian homeowners. Meanwhile most of the Canadian economy is already rapidly slowing except the real estate sector, food prices and travel. The Canadian CPI inflation at 3.4^% due to the overvalued real estate sector and rents. I expect to see a big divergence between the 2 countries going forward. Canada is stuck in a very difficult situation. If the BOC follows the Fed, we will see home prices spike creating a disasterous situation. If they don't we will tip into a much more severe recession. Our economy is so imbalanced we really are in a horrible situation.
Brother america is messed. Look at heresy financial. We in the US are heading for big trouble
Thanks for the comment
@@wewons I would disagree. In Canada, 3-5 yr mortgages are the norm. This isn't the case in the US. Unless the States sees a major issue like in 2008, most homeowners in the US aren't going to get smashed.
Whereas, in Toronto, Vancouver and to a lesser extent Montreal, we have people massively leveraged to their homes. Home prices in Toronto are 162 per cent higher than what a median-earning family can afford, while home prices in Vancouver are 195 per cent higher.
The average price pre set ft for a condo is 1400 bucks in Toronto. 700 sq ft is pushing a million bucks. 2000 sq ft houses are 1.5-2 million. And believe me, at the lower end of that it's a fixer upper. Canada is wildly out of whack when it comes to real estate. Wages haven't even come close to tracking home prices in the last 20 yrs. Wages have increased 25-30% since 2003 while home prices have spiked 500% in Toronto. It's that staggering.
@@kevinn1158I think he’s saying that the US is in trouble too. They just have different bubbles.
@@BellaBella-jw9ef they may well have issues coming but their economy is so diverse they will easily power through. Canada is still a one dimensional economy that basically lives and dies on oil. And as a crutch, we’ve developed a crazy reliance on a non productive sector in the last 22 yrs ie Real estate. In fact, it’s basically developed into a pyramid scheme leaving basic fundamentals in the dust. This sector is a necessity and a foundation for wealth retention but it should never be a driving force in our economy.
The American Fed announced 3 int rate cuts because they are watching the divergence between GDP and GDI. Look that one up.
I don’t want to get too political but we need leaders who will take some very dramatic moves to increase housing supply, build private coop ownership, cut major taxes, like land transfer, development fees, & GST on new housing. The cost of a new home is 25-30% taxes. And get the municipal councillors out of the way. And drop immigration until they are able to provide homes, schooling and healthcare infrastructure for the people wanting to move here.
I have just sold my house in Duncan BC to move to Victoria BC. I have a large down payment to purchase a condo at around 700k My realtor told me to rent as the market will be dropping significantly. in the next two years and I can save 100's of thousands of dollars. I agreed with his advice and am sitting on the sidelines keenly waiting for my opportunity.
00:02:15 Remax Forcast: 2024 Price Outlook: +0.5%. "Not very bullish, but mildly increasing sales and prices."
With the CPI at about +3.5%, those prices are falling in real dollars. If housing prices remain flat and the CPI remains where it's at, then a slow steady decline in the real price of homes is happening.
Thanks for the info, makes sense.
As always good honest truth. Please keep up these honest reviews.
One of the best real estate updates.
Keep up the great work.
I appreciate that!
The thing about owning tangible items everybody needs, inflation always makes them worth more.
My experience in Arizona in 2012 was it dropped 75%before it rebounded.
Thanks for the research. I think the realestate market depends heavily on the rate of immigration. If that reduces, then we will finally see prices come down to a realistic level
Lots of assessment clauses houses in the market . Listing going up in Durham region.
Thanks for the comment
Every sale in the last few years in Cape Breton have sold below assessed value in my area. Yet my assessment went up by 21%. Wait till Toronto gets hit with rate increases.
10.5 percent increase in property tax is slated for Toronto. Exactly half what your assessment increase is.
Taxes will go up everywhere as city budgets are increasing exponentially
Inflations up to 3.4%. There won’t be any rate cuts because the government keeps spending
There won't be any rate cuts because they keep importing buyers
very true
@@JeffSSartorthose imported buyers don’t have a lot of cash, if you are referring to international students. Yes one thing for sure, there are a lot of flippers in the game, and I know they are at the breaking point.
Thanks Jon. Do you see parallels between the US rate cut optimism and the failed BoC pause from last year? I would even argue that the US consumers are stronger than Canadians were when Tiff paused. So what would justify cuts in the US? I think the markets are getting it wrong by jumping to premature cuts.
I think Canada has to stay close to the U.S. when it comes to interest rates. This time Canada raised first and looks like we will be the last to start cutting.
Hi John you are 💯 percent right you have big like from me
Thank you kindly
The turning point will be layoffs, when companies run out of money like real people
exactly
Just something worth "knowing" through the 90s into I think was the crash of 2008, the military would use tax dollars to reimburse any military member whose property price dropped because of the market, up to 100% of their loses including upgrades etc. So absolutely no risk whatsoever and not being cynical but I wonder if anyone sold really low to profit from this legislation? I certainly enjoy your lectures!
I have tried two detached properties in Durham Region(Oshawa and Whitby) under the range of 670k to 780k. Both of them got 25-28 offers. I think this range remains competitive for first time homebuyers and the first time home buyers are only pushed to this region.
Think of how many people's time they're wasting by listing 100-200K under market price so they get 20+ offers. How far off was your offer from the selling price?
@@jonflynn following
Could one not look at this charting the other way. Like Warren buffet. Buy when others are fearful. If market sentiment is an all time low along with sales, is this not the perfect time to buy? Eventually markets will ease, Canadians are still in desperate need of more housing.
Warren doesn't understand today everything is a ponzi. The U.S. stock market, Bitcoin the Canadian housing market all of them are ponzi's.
people aren't fearful, they just don't think now is a good time for a major purchase. I still see a lot more greed than fear which makes sense since we still haven't hit the fear stage of the asset bubble
I made an offer on a house in Caledonia the seller is saying too low while similar house to that is sitting on the market for almost 4 months for 50K lower what he is asking
So buy the other one?
I am
@@ArZ00765 Hurry before he raises his price.
I can't comment on it since you're most likely working with a realtor but if it was me, I'd wait a week or two and offer $10K less than first offer. If it sells in the meantime oh well.
Thank you Jon. Up and to the right IMO.
Thanks for the comment
Always look forward to your videos Jon!
Glad to hear it!
Thanks Jon. Nice review this week!
Thanks for watching!
Where is the bottom of the price?
The bottom was the beginning of October 2023 when interest rates peaked. If yu wwiated to buy since then you've waitied too long.
Bottom will be 2025-2027 in my opinion
@@jonflynn why do you keep changing when the bottom will be?
I've never called a bottom, above I gave a 2 year window which was an opinion. I've said constantly "buying opportunities" will start end of this year into 2025 sometime.@@johnnylongstocking128
@@jonflynn funny how you claim to have not said things that you clearly have in previous videos or comments. You said buying opportunities in late 2023 into early 2024 and that the bottom was in 2024. Do you ever admit you got something wrong?
Or builders are building less homes because they can't get the high asking prices they want either. So they will wait it out and build when rates are lower. They will continue to build what is on the go already but build less new homes.
They're going to keep waiting because people can't afford the homes even with 0 rates 😅
I agree, good point
@@rjkrjk8344 why don't they lower their prices then?
Builders are building less homes because it costs them so much to build that it's not even worth their investment anymore. The high cost of materials, labor, development and permit costs. Canada is a ridiculous place for developers to do business now. And all the while they get treated like crap
@@Joe-mz6dc
I agree, builders won't jump in with just an interest rate cut.
Need a recession to bring the cost of everything else down, materials, land and govt fees in particular
Love the Rideau Canal backdrop.
Too bad it was only open for 1.5 days. I suppose that's better than the 0 days last year.
Also, that Blair Witch pose of the skater on our right is super creepy. 😮😂
real estate investing is a part of the retirement plan that could be better than RRSP GIC or mutual funds by applying leverage and capital gain exemptions. And doesn’t matter how much is down from the peak as diferent people have time horizons. Houses are not stocks to time and sell
Thanks for the comment
The cost of materials are up! To build the same home it will cost me three times to build, the banks are thieves, they don’t deny it, look at their profits!!
I agree, they want us all to be debt slaves
Ave price to ave income ratio historically 3:1. It hit 15:1. It always comes back to 3:1. That is an 80% DROP IN PRICE. LOOKOUT BELOW.
This is the reality that the geniuses can’t accept. “SOLD Under Ask 2024”
It fell as low as 2.1 times the husbands gross annual salary for a new detached home in the early 1970's in the GTA. Before the late 1970's it was always based on one salary the husband's.
BANKERS RUINING THE COUNTRY@@parkerbohnn
even at 5:1 people will be jumping out of windows
horrible depression coming all because of bankers. As David Rosenberg said all recessions and depressions are caused by bankers. We must end central banking. Every religion declares charging interest is a sin. Interest charges increases inflation and keeps us enslaved.@@jonflynn
Look it's all about affordability that's the bottom line. I was offered a 10% variable rate from CIBC need 200k to afford a townhouse in Oakville
yep
The wrench in all those predictions will be the employment / unemployment rate. if the unemployment rate increases substantially, price and sells will likely stay flat or decline.
yep, that's the key to the puzzle, until then high rates and flat prices
I definitely have zero confidence in the real estate market in Canada. Happy I got out of it in time and never returning to it.
Great job!
I have shared much of the same sentiment as you Jon, I just don't know how things can continue like this forever given the price to income rations being so high. Affordability is affordability, people only make so much. Yet housing prices nationwide are down somewhere around 20% ish from the Covid peak. I could see them going down another 10 maybe 20% before a series of interest rate decreases start to put another floor in...when that happens, probably in the last half of 2024 or 2025 (but it's anyone's guess). What are your thoughts on how far down we could go from here and what sort of timeline?
Home prices will rise 10 to 12 percent this year and another 15 percent in 2025.
Prices are currently averaging 30 percent decrease from the peak in the GTA ( February 2022). If you account for the opportunity cost on your money over the last 2 years the real price drop is closer to 40 percent. Rates will only drop when unemployment starts increasing. Prices will fall another 10-15 percent from 30 percent drop on average where we are today in the GTA. Power of Sales are coming next. Negative amortizations cannot go on forever. Auditors will for banks to do a full write-down at some point.
@@parkerbohnn😂😂
@@frankferreira8955it’s the power of sales that’s keeping the mystery of ‘no foreclosures’ at bay
My timeline is based of historical trends. Prices will continue to decline as rate cuts start. Bottom may take a while due to all the renewals who will still be renewing at higher rates than they’re currently paying. So price declines continue until at least 2026-2027. Even when rates start dropping existing mortgagors will be seeing higher payments for 1-2 years at least as they renew.
How can anyone take Royal leopard seriously with a statement like that? That’s irresponsible and seems desperate to fool buyers into just getting into the market. Prices literally NEED to go lower. We can’t continue to rack up the amounts of debt we’re in. Lots of people own multiple houses in Canada because they were able to leverage their quickly growing equity to buy more houses. How is that fair to future generations? We’re all stuck in a rut because of high prices. Greater fool theory, if I buy this at this price, someone else will pay more down the road.
Well in our case we were renting a condo and the owners decided to sell. Ergo, we had two choices. 1. We could find another place to rent at more than double what we were currently paying, or 2. Just go ahead and purchase. Obviously the smart thing to do is purchase, otherwise we're just continuing to throw our money away at twice the rate we were in the past. That's the dilemma now for many people, because many investors are starting to offload their investment properties (which contain renters) so that they can get out of the market at what they perceive to be the top.
They got their 2023 forecast right unlike Jon who said prices were going to decline alot. Maybe they know a little more than Jon does.
well said, it seems like everything is based on that theory these days
What I find interesting is not that Jon says that the prices are going down in 2024 (and has been saying that for years)....it's that literally every expert and economist says prices will likely increase when rates slowly drop this year.
Finally someone else sees through his nonsense. When prices don't come down this year, he will just say you have to wait another year. There is a reason this guy only does a couple of deals a year.
Those rate cut will mostly only affect the 1 and 2 year mortgages but it will affect the variable rate ones. The 5, 7 and 10 year mortgages will fall the least percentage-wise.
Who are these experts and economists? Please share, and not the ones hired by real estate brokerages.
@@jonflynn there is this really cool new thing you can do these days called reading. Even better you can do it on your phone.
If you are Bearish on this market, at least you are honest. Any realtor trying to say it's going to kick off again is just showing their ignorance regarding basic economics. House price to income ratio of 15:1 is ridiculous. It should be 3-5:1 in the cities, maybe 7:1 in top areas. New York is 10:1.... Canada is averaging over 13:1 with some areas being higher like Victoria being 15:1.
Any realtor that says anything different than what you are saying here... is chasing a commission and not looking out for the best interest of the client.
Great point, most realtors are oblivious to household income to house price ratios and have normalized the bubble. It will pop like it always does.
Sounds like your hoping prices will go down...where are you looking to buy?
@@Scarz99 I am looking to buy and hoping to do so in Powell River BC. But the point is people who think that this market can continue upwards into infinity have no basic fundamental understanding of the economics of the situation.
Immigration won't prop this market up. The average immigrant make $30k/yr. These prices are completely unaffordable and they will fall no matter what any realtor thinks or says. Realtors, in general have a limited understanding of the macroeconomics of the global bubble that has been created. Mr. Flynn is at least being honest with what the outlook is for real estate. People might not like it, but he's being honest.
Of course I'm hoping for prices to go down. So should you. The quicker we actually find a bottom (which this isn't it) the sooner we can dig our way out and get back to a "normal".
@@jonflynn Thank you for being willing to take an honest look at what is going on. As I have said before most realtors are taking an unrealistic view that this can continue. Just from this honest perspective if I were in Ontario instead of BC I would heavily consider you for any real estate transactions. Most realtors (at least that I have seen) are pushing the narrative that this will continue and it simply can't.
There will be pain. People will lose their houses and/or significant money if they bought during the frenzy. It's not a fun thing to report to people but it's the truth they need to hear. The BoC doesn't care about you losing your house. They have one mandate "stable prices". And with housing being around 20% of GDP the government will do everything they can to maintain some of that, but that isn't likely to continue forever either. I remember walking the halls of empty new apartments in the 90s. It looks like we might be headed for something similar, or potentially worse.
Thanks for the honest report.
@jaredwebster7138 why would any homeowner wish for prices to go down?
One I can say for sure: I can see online is the same houses for sale as few months ago… look like owners can sell … and I am as a buyer don’t want to pay more than 2.5k for my mortgage( Winnipeg) and don’t really care lower rate or lower price, realistically middle class in Manitoba can’t make it and our province is one of the most affordable…
And most I don’t understand, how the fukk people from Ontario or BC getting those houses, they are getting only like 5k extra per year to compare what we got here… so how they can afford 1.5mln house idtkn
They ride on the coattails of the Chinese knowing prices can never fall. No matter what the price is the price will always go higher usually doubling every 5 years no matter what wages are.
Me either
House prices are way too high
You’re correct.
Rideau Canal as the backdrop! Love it. Would be nice if it opened this year… great vid John
Thanks, pic was from 2022
Oversupply of oil will run out early in the summer, this has been said on most major media around the world.
There plan is to get back to restricting the supply to justify upping the price.
Higher gas prices are forcasted to follow.
Thus increasing inflation, panama canal problem hasnt really been felt yet, but thats coming too.
People dont talk about things like this.
These are the things the BOC look at though.
The path to 2 is not clear. Unemployment rate is the only thing that will get rates lowered.
This is the world I live in.
Lol
People should look at things on a global scale, Canada is a little fish in a big pond, we dont really control were anything goes.
great comment.
Idk what’s happening, toronto still had 8 bidders on a house I tried to buy yesterday near high park.
You waited too long you should have bought in October last year.
New year rush, lots of people coming out of the woodwork because they've been told prices will skyrocket once rates drop. Now that inflation is higher than expected rates won't drop as soon as expected so that rush may end soon. Recession still hasn't started.
What did Jon said in spring 2020?
That prices were going to crash. Same as he said in 2021, 2022 and 2023. It's also the same thing he is going to say in 2025 as well.
Nothing, I wasn't making these videos then.
@@jonflynnreal estate investing is a part of the retirement plan that could be better than RRSP GIC or mutual funds by applying leverage and capital gain exemptions. And doesn’t matter how much is down from the peak as diferent people have time horizons. Houses are not stocks to time and sell
I am from Burnaby. Not a single realtor I know of has the same mindset as you are, Jon. Exactly the opposite.
Yeah it sucks, have been trying to find one and they're all singing the same tune.
@@jonflynn They have been on that drug for way too long, Jon. What else to expect from them?
@@Scarz99
Lol.
On what
Vegetables?
Chicken maybe?
No one believes you.
@@Scarz99 dude... knock it off
You predicted or a year ago that we'll see 2018 home price are going to see them return to that price or not or are we still see sky high prices because I don't see home owners and real estate agents willing to lower there prices and agent taking cut in commission even if home owners who over pay by over bidding on homes and now having to renew there mortgage an are unable afford being force to sell for less and taking a lost an maybe never be able to buy other home I know some home owners may be force to do that and may still have a mortgage cause they couldn't sell to pay off the mortgage
If Jon actually thought we were going to see 2018 prices he would have sold his house at 2022 prices. He didn't because he knows 2018 prices are not coming back. All Jon cares about is clicks on his videos. He needs the ad revenue because he doesn't do many deals and half his office left.
The party is just getting started
@@jonflynn you said that last year too.
@@johnnylongstocking128
How about you give it some time, and THEN be the judge? Say one suggests that the prices will plummet in August 2023. But guess what, that actually happens in say November 2024 or March 2025. You miss by a year - year and a half, that's all. It is a minor miss, but on the large scale still a decent guess. However, if nothing happens for the next 5 years, THEN you can say that it wasn't the best mathematical model that was constructed. The bottom line is we're all moving towards a gigantic waterfall. A few bumps down the road here and there, global events stop or accelerate down the road...etc, and you miscalculate by say a year.
But, dear sir, the numbers DON'T LIE! You can love it or hate it, but we ARE heading for a rough ride here!
If you don't see this, I actually envy you!
@@Nemija you are right the numbers do not lie. Jon has been wrong for YEARS now with his predictions.
But lets use you logic. I am now predicting that home prices in Canada are going to raise 15% in 2024. But if they don't that is ok, just wait until next year, or the year after that, maybe 2026. As long as they increase 15% at some point see I was right. Same logic.
people are still asking for 750k on their homes while bids are coming in 50-100k under asking
I see it all the time
please let us know if you hear of good realtors here in metro Vancouver! It's so hard to find and work with geniune ones!😢
I just did a bunch of research there and they’re hard to find. I zeroed in on one but waiting for the buyer to confirm before I phone interview her.
How can the prices take off? Most people can't afford the payments. Its mostly about the payments!
The inflation is created by the higher interest rate. It will create more supply and more affordability if they drop the rate with government issuing permits efficiently.
Thanks for the comment
Just wondering Jon, if you ever take into account the 500+K a year of new residents Canada gets in relation to your predictions?
Virtually all the immigrants coming to Canada are penniless. The 20k they get to get into Canada is money borrowed from loan sharks. They get here then head for the nearest food bank and hostel yes hostel not hotel.
Canadians can't afford homes, what makes you think immigrants coming from third world countries will?
I was thinking that with that many new comers to the country that housing pressure will not go down thus affecting the cost. Not all immigrants come with very little money, I would dare say not a lot come with the clothes on their backs. Refugees yes.
@@jonflynnexactly
sellers are not lowering prices
buyers are waiting for the lower prices
Buyers are starting to buy again.
yep
@@chadpescod-realtor3308 Prices are rising at the lower end of the housing market. Markham and Richmond as always will lead the entire Godden Horseshoe in price increases and the rest of the cities will follow with a lag period of time. My guess is prices will rise 10 to 12 percent this year and another 15 percent next year.
Prices are way too high
Yep
With new Inflation report rising not only will they freeze rate cuts they may even hike em up!
many didn't see that coming
Send those rates higher..🎉🎉🎉
@@jonflynn the inflation report was right in line with market expectations. So ya most who know saw it coming.
Here is the bottom line. We just had a pretty hard and fast quantitative tightening, and it still had prices stay high. What would happen when we start to see interest rates start to go down? Prices wouldn't be going down.
Ok
House across the street in Hamilton wants $459 a square foot ffs
Can build for half that, just need a lot first though
But Hamilton is not worth much to begin with.
@sophielabelle3324 she's asking 689 000. People who work in TO came to Hamilton to buy cheaper homes before the pandemic and pushed up the prices, unfortunately. People are asking over half a million for 1000 square foot homes.
@sophielabelle3324 That's pretty expensive for me. Anything over 1800-2000 for a mortgage is too expensive here, with the median income being 75 000 a year.
I've seen apartments in Edmonton sell for less than forty dollars a square foot.
Not bearish enough! Soon people will need to pay money to get rid of their houses!
yep, it's happened before
!.2 million coming into Canada last year and 600,000 are living in tents.
The ones who survive this winter.
"population trap" as that economist from the national bank put it
Between 2020 and 2022 housing prices increased 80%. Well since then they have dropped over 20%. Here is the bottom line. That 80% gain is going to come out. One way or another. Most likely it will be 1-2% per month slow drip followed by the tanking in the summer. Why? Cause nowhere on planet earth with any housing bubble has it ever ended differently. Including Japan where they have just 2% available land. Why people are not selling ASAP and running with the gains is beyond me. But thats how it works. The smartest people leave with the most gains. That because they know the difference between selling when you can-not when you have to.
Great comment thanks for sharing.
No I don’t think so labor cost tax hike 10.5 percent everything cost more
Thanks for the comment
In 2025 house market price going down?
Yep, that's what I predict by my forecast.
@@jonflynn how about in 2024 ?
Lower their prices, or hold out till 2025 when the fed removes the ban on foreign home purchases? How much is that ban playing a part in the current housing market decline?
You think people can hold for a year? 😂
that's the plan with our house anyways . Not sure what everyone else can do. We are on variable and have seen our monthly payment go up 2400$ a month
@@BriCam1 sorry to hear that, criminal. For the sake of folks like you I hope for reductions. It’s not the increase so much as the fact that it’s just evaporating to interest costs.
The agents that walked a lot of folks into this mess can get bent.
@@BriCam1prices won’t go up because we are about to enter a very deep recession. Inflation is up so rates aren’t coming down. You would be wise to sell jow
@@MentionBiscuitthanks for that, yeah I guess we were stupid going variable, I personally call it predatorial lending by the Fed and the BoC. Wife is on maternity leave and in that time, payments from 3600 to 6 per month. My entire pay goes to the mortgage alone... very frustrating and hoping for something to give in the country, before we break
Price change cart is setting up a head and shoulders. lol he called it as I was typing
@10:28 Steve Starsky cries at this part
haha
Definitely. Prices zre still too high that's why properties are not selling
The buyers are stupid and with all of them being wrong they'll all wait too long to buy as always and then get shutout of the market forever for a second time.
I don’t care who’s most bearish only about objective unbiased sources of info/data. Always DYOR. Edit: other economic factors at play as John knows.
Thanks for the comment
Phil Soper hasn’t made a statement in good faith in his life.
You could be right
Nope I don’t see any drop anytime soon its supply and demand = higher and higher again !
Royal LePage clowns. 🤡
😂
You can drop prices all you want for the majority it’s over. No one can afford a house, groceries, utilities, insurance, etc etc
More like 50 percent realtor driven overtaking prices must come down to affordable once again restore sanity raise interest rates further stop inflationary escalation once and for all🙈
u r realistic
Thanks
The price will follow the construction price less 20%
Interesting take
Bring in 1.5 million people to Canada that don't a a pot to pee in. Kinda difficult to generate sales
Very true
Finally someone sane.
Thanks