The Lost Genius of Irrationality: Rory Sutherland at TEDxOxford
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- Опубліковано 1 кві 2013
- Rory is one of the most powerful men in marketing. Educated at Cambridge, he went on to become the Executive Creative Director and Vice-Chairman of OgilvyOne, and the Vice-Chairman of the overall Ogilvy Group. His revolutionary views of marketing and behavioural economics have led him to speak at TED twice already, and he has been elected the next President of the IPA (the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising).
TEDxOxford is organised by University of Oxford students, aiming to bring together the young minds of tomorrow's world with the movers and shakers of today. TEDxOxford is kindly sponsored by Neptune Investment Management - www.neptunefunds.com
In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations) - Наука та технологія
If anyone has the strength to get you interested in a subject not familiar to you....its Mr Sutherland, he has finesse in describing the usually unseen aspects of phenomena ... for me its a blessing to hear your talks
I just binged all his talks, its been awhile since i really enjoyed a single TED talk much less 3 in a row.
Regarding the traffic and speed I was pulled over by a police once because I slowed down when I noticed him even though I was going the speed limit. He followed me and pulled me over and asked me where I was coming from I told him work it was after 12 a.m. in the morning. He asked me why I slowed down. I told him because it's a natural instinct for me to slow down whenever I see the police.
Did he give you a ticket or what happened next?
The term B.O.B. is actually an acronym meaning Bewust Onbeschonken Bestuurder (Concious Non-alcoholic Driver) meaning that if they ask you in Holland to be the BOB; you basically agree you won't drink (alcoholic) beverages that night.
And BOB Doesn't have to buy a soft drink all night his friends buy it for him/her.
I miss Britain and all the fantastic free lectures and debates which abound in quality and quantity like nowhere other.
(:
I generally don't like marketing men, but this talk is both amusing and edifying. Well worth the listen!
+SquareWaveHeaven Same here. I worked in ad land. I loved my work AND hated it. But the worst was typical ad men; arrogant, backstabbing egotists. I needed this guy in the agencies I was at. It wouldn't have made me jaded and kept me in it because the whole ego thing ground me down. But this guy is fab
@@Anonymous-or4ru n
Interesting and highly articulate arguments that easily disguise the fact that they are not watertight.
Still, totally worth the time for a listen. Nothing is really absolute.
“Narrative arc can be created by many things, for example
The scoring system in tennis. When we watch sport, we create a narrative to explain how the match went, even though this narrative can change 180degrees due to say a lucky shot that went in. In a way we create the meaning by creating a story, and then we create emotions from this created meaning
@RorySutherland: Regarding the "economists and monopoly" quote you heard from Thaler, the same was said about subsidies and protectionism by Milton Friedman in "Free To Choose" almost 30 years ago. Everyone is against them, but they are for them when it comes to their own profession or industry.
This guy is brilliant and has made me question my declared preference for the occasional glass. I applaud his perspective
Great talk. Enjoyed it very much.
@Anna Dobson. This is a perfectly fair observation. The very presence of the word Cocktail is a prompt. But I can't think of a way of testing this that would isolate these two effects in the real world - though you could do it in an online supermarket, I suspect.
That was an brilliant speech, kept me hooked the whole way through.
Loved the comment from Planck. The math for economics is too hard. Agree that football has a degree of irrationality to it. It's just people mostly kicking a ball around. But the commentary is mostly fair since the people are trying to impose their will most of the time. Maybe Rory was just trying to prove his point of irrationality. Or rather maybe it's me being completely irrational. Off now to learn some Hungarian. And then zipper merging!
Brilliant, insightful speaker.
I want to work for/with people like this. RS is brilliant.
Anyone else experience an existential crisis during parts of this talk? 😳
What a joy to listen to and what great insights. Love it!
gdrgdrhr
Nicely observed insights. I always find Rory Sutherland talks fascinating.
if only our politicians were as able...
Interesting conversation
Thank youu for it all
oh rory, i love you so much!
Interesting, of course, about the Minnesota example is that Minnesota has a lot of Swedish immigrants and the "zipper merge" has been an unwritten rule in Sweden for a lot longer than its existence across the pond.
a must watch
Am I learning behavioral economics principals by viewing this video? I think I am. And he clarifies some implications in the realm of education, language learning, entertainment, in addition to decision-making, human agency, choice.
I feel that most "developed" countries in the world tend to overeat simply because a surplus is available... reading back what I just typed.. sounds like I'm in 3rd grade again.
5:20 "When we cease to believe in God, we'll believe in anything."
-- It sounds better to say "We'll *fall* for anything."
this man is amazing.
Could the sheer novelty of the new placement of cocktail port not have played a role in the rise in spirits being bought? Did the research test at a follow up date?
id pay to seem him speak in person
He actually makes a little mistake at 20:30 when he talks about limonade. Limonade is a feminine word in french. He just switched the genders. No matter, I think his point comes across very well nonetheless. Great speach!
Great talk and all... but why is he wearing so many shirts?
A random sequence of behavioural events ...
Jimi Sayo oobooooo
Jimi Sayo oooooooooooooo
Jimi Sayo oooooooooooooooooooo
Jimi Sayo oooooooooooooooooooooooooo
I'm pretty sure the Minnesota zipper merge is exactly what is required by the highway code
Nice subtle tag for SW Airlines btw lolz ;>
Speaking of learned behaviors, what am I clapping for? This is a pre-taped session.
"stickability" ...TreB notes for near future use ;>
I like him. I think he would be fun friend for an outing. I don’t think he has ever seen Ronaldo practice. The man uses his feet better than the average person does hands. There is no luck in the way he handles a soccer or “football.” I really don’t have a problem with this speakers view of soccer. I just wanted to ensure that it’s understood. The value one person has in a sport doesn’t negate the immense practice and time a sports player has spent on perfecting a skill. There is luck in sports, and life. There is no doubt about that, but sports or life won’t happen by luck alone. One must actually play sports, and live life to have the chance to experience luck. Luck shouldn’t be a deciding factor to do or not do anything. Luck happens, and life happens. Luck is something that happens, and can sometimes make things more interesting.
Well said 😄
Amazing .
the natural foreign language to learn being english is of course french. at least historically or traditionally. nowadays it is a sort of kaleidoscopic telescope of maybes but french is the old fashioned second language of english people. the french language and culture was always the most important
99 bottles of beer on the wall backdrop.
behavioralist in five shirts in front of a strange array of red prop bottles
Hereto or more correctly hereafter these events are moving through a period which they periodically move through.
Football and tennis are games of skill. A great team/player would beat a mediocre team/player pretty much 100% of the time, so mostly there is human agency, not luck.
You seem to forget about everything else he says on that particular subject.
The individual human agency does matter when it comes down to an individual (as in tennis) and small increments (such in tennis), but in football you have a lot of individually very talented guys (and probably also in a team way talented) that are trying to work as a hive mind against another team trying to work as a hive mind, which in all effect will never work. Instead you've got 22 individuals on a field with their own somewhat random thoughts and actions which in the end gives a result that is pretty difficult to calculate beforehand (that is, random). Thus it is not deterministic, it is on account of randomness = mostly luck.
If it weren't mostly based on luck, then people would be earning shitloads of money betting on every game because it was highly predictable who would win. It isn't (especially not when the two teams are highly equal, that is you don't have the brazilian national team play against little league, so yeah it is MOSTLY random not completely). The only reason why bookmakers usually make a lot of cash, cause their system of predicting outcomes are just as highly improbable as economics are, are because they adjust odds and bet rates in a way that makes it almost certain that they will earn quite a fair bit of money either way.
If you've ever done WoW raiding on a hardcore level, you'd truly understand what it means for something to be predictable. Fights like M'uru needed to be executed perfectly every single time, yet one tiny mistake from anyone could wipe the raid. Even though it was one of the most overly tuned fights ever, and only experienced raiders attempted it, there was still room for an 'unlucky' add placement or event caused by another raid member.
What mrdillerfar touches on this, but I admit to only skimming his post.
To put this into context, you're underestimating the variations of how a ball can be kicked, and how player placement can affect the kicker. There's a reason those in competitive sports and such psych themselves up, and learn to deal with stress; they don't want an unexpected event (bad luck) to mess with their performance.
In short...Talazorn, I don't mean this in an offensive way, but I doubt you've ever played competitively with a statement such as that.
Is his trouser size a part of his thesis?
Do you feel bad selling wine knowing that it's not helping people? There are likely better ways to deal with stress. Once upon a time there was a need alcohol when drinking water was of poor quality. What amazes me the most is that people think so much about how to maximize profit. None the less it was interesting to listen to.
I was convinced he was Andy Serkis , Gollum from Lord of the Rings. 👀
god, he must be sweltering!
well you should say LA limonade :)
4:02 Drugs can be synthetic, feelings/emotions, happiness and misery, among others, are THE CLOSEST to "ABSOLUTELY REAL" uhm, "things"...events...states of mind?
I just love his view on wine
...loves the delusional concept and will work it like a pro
I wonder why there are red bottles in the background? 🤔
Red and white to tedx color scheme, the background as he speaks from the red. On the floor.
behavioralist to audience: this is how we prey on you you amoebas. audience: clap clap clap
good
Please I need subtitles to understand this in Spanish
Yes, he does speak English rather quickly--but imagine how fast it would seem to us if he were speaking in Spanish!
Does anyone else think he looks like the older, wiser brother of Andy Serkis?
those god dam bookshelves
Maybe they look like statistics lol
soccer=tribalism so football=tribalism. TreB gives two thumbs up.
Fine
Andy Serkis?
Believing in everything does not create anything.
Can someone explain to me what a hereistic is? I'm jus askn here case I got more questions
+Mark Cabides Hi Mark. The easiest way to think of a heuristic is as a rule of thumb. In this context, a heuristic is something that aids decision making. A heuristic is usually an assumption within a certain context. For example, if you are about to walk outside and you can see that everyone is wearing sunglasses, you might want to stick yours on too. This is based on the heuristic that if a lot of people are doing something, it's often the right thing to do. However, this does not apply in every situation (e.g. squeezing on to The Tube)
Hope that helps
Also refers to 2nd hand learning. You can let someone share the experience hot stoves burn, and not need to touch the stove yourself to learn it burns.
Best description of heuristics! You win the Internet today! ;-)
Same issue football
Food
Football
Basket ball
Tennis
Thanks Sir so much
the doctor
lol yeah he'd make a great dr. who
I feel like this guy is saying something smart but I'm just too dumb to get any of it...
I feel as though I understood it, but you never know. Here is my take:
Problems can be solved psychologically rather than numerically. Religious traditions might not make sense to us, but when you look at what they do, you can associate the benefit gained with laws we've enforced due to scientific studies.
I think the example he made regarding the sabbath(sp?) says it quite well: if people are overworking, make one day a day off. However, to apply it as a simple law would not stick. Let's move to the "Designated Driver" and "Zipper Merge" effects, and apply it to why the "Sabbath" had a name, and stuck. It gave humans a way to associate with the law in a simple way which could be easily followed.
So, basically, 'irrationality' to me simply means not thinking of the human brain as a computer, but more in the sense of meteorology(as he more or less stated), in that we must predict how to use information to influence the population rather than statistics.
Again, I might have not understood it fully...I've always been interested in human psychology, so that is inevitably how I viewed his talk.
Same here :)
+Lester Dela Cruz ...that's his angle these guys can make shit sound fantastic and bullshit sound intelligent...they've been doing it for years....it's called the delusional concept they've promoted for 30 years and it looks like their winning...so you're not dumb, you're one of the lucky ones loll
TheTrueforeigner
Right, and the fact that you can't type a proper sentence clearly makes you qualified to say that.
~_~
Literally had this exact thought watching this, to some of what he was saying
to answer the final question, do not have all government as a single organization. there is no reason that the government that protects you should be the government that governs the roads. let them be separate with separate taxation for funding.
the word he was searching for is tandem
Rory,
competent economists do not view monopolies as a bad thing. Michael Jackson has a monopoly on his voice, his performances, and character, but yet that is not hated by economists. there is problem here. the only problem with monopolies economists have is when the monopoly is forced(example: legislated and enforced by law, like mail, or energy, or healthcare, or money etc.)
just for future reference =)
mj did not control MUSIC, the monopoly, he was a subset of the music "world". unless retailers/ local councils / politicians wake up amazon will soon be a monopoly... modern controlling factions are in a race to the bottom, would they raise their standards monopoly might be a good thing
it actually is LA limonade though... 20:28. and french speakers can still understand you if you use the wrong gender, we will just know that you are learning the language and that it's not your first language.
Why football players can play a game about 90minutes its the longest term play
Why do I see white Neil degrass Tyson
Yes!! Maybe it’s their obvious enthusiasm and engagement?
Network theory...
Your bit about behavioural economics vs rational economics, and social heuristics...
The assumption of expensive local compute, cheap global communication drives these deductions...
May be the case may not be the case. People already spend more than a decade in schools, which is a medium of distributing said social heuristics. It cannot be that hard for people to just figure out the most acceptable behaviour themselves.
How much do you want to teach in schools vs how much you want people to figure out by themselves... Things like rational thinking and mathematics are stored in the global communications network, and does not arise locally. Irrational things to be quite easy for a person to come up with, because they are aligned with the feelings mechanism of making decisions, which is not as influenced by the society as the rational thinking part which duplicates network information from society.
33:07 hahahaha
18:12 The Dutch language uses "s" sounds. English and Dutch are very similar. He clearly needs to work on his Dutch much more. Lol. The pilot must have either had a speech impediment or just thought it was funny.
TreB MoMeNt here: In the US, "right lane" drivers should ALWAYS have lower speed than to their left lanes. You Brits.. *chuckles*...
Brits drive on the left, US drive on the right -- Brits use metric, US uses "standard" (go figure). -- Brits call a "trunk" a "boot", US can understand this, but Canada keeps asking "what's this all a boot?".
Dear Canada: "What's it all a boot"? Answer "Alfie!" ;-)
Finally a man who shares my view on wine.
The single most pretentious beverage in these times.
Is it because they have to thing a stragedy ?
We do not learn minoritized languages because from the collective point of view it's impractical. But why it became so? may it have had to do with England's imperialist past? The logic fails in arguments like this. It is not enough to state the difference between an individual and a collective perspective without explaining the historicity of the collective and how it is related to taking responsibility for certain ways of thinking. In short, let's not learn languages and spend the whole day drinking in pubs, it is not our fault, the mechanisms to convince us to find other interests were designed badly.
4:15 "The commentators will construct five-hundred or a thousand words of description".
-- If he means they really milk it... This guy has been making the same point for the last four minutes.
John Weiss 3 months ago edited. In the comments stream, string or thread you sometimes see edited. Do you write War and Peace then upon reflection shorten it up to the size of a comment or a text? Does someone else edit the comment? Share what you know about this.
@@nicholasgardiner9601 not sure what you're saying. If it says "edited" that means i edited it.
@@johnywhy4679 replying to Johnny why okay thank you. Express Yourself!
He speaks so much and says so little.
Plugaru C. Sebastian it’s filler bro
Ahh the upper-class English talent of dancing between babble and coherent thought; between sips of wine of
course 😁👍 He does speak quickly though, which I like - along with the odd joke to make it all more palatable.
Whereas you text eight words and say nothing. In reply to Plugaru C. Sebastian's 1st comment.
I think he said quite a lot.
How about raising your social standing: ..... I teach you Turkish, Rory.!
19 dislikes from football commentators
His comments on the randomised nature of football is absolute nonsense.
HIS COMMENTS' ARE WELL PRESENTED HERE. VERY WELL STATED! GOD BLESS YOU ALL.
/facepalm
He broke himself in the first 10 seconds.......
All about the nudging.....
gerd gigerenzer gut instincts stuff here...
:)
Sounds like he was never very good a football as a kid
P
his cloths has gone binary.
Binary like,2 4 8 16
Good luck getting people to listen to arbitrarily-defined, scientifically-devoid laws written by a government at best half the country hates.
Say what you will about religion, but it generally works, and you can't replace it.
So the last 4months proved how wrong your comment was
are oxford uni sponsored by coke
This is.....exhausting....I don't need this much mental strain...mental masturbation...blah blah blah...35 minutes of abstract, intellectual concept...for what?
Bizarre weirdo shows he doesn't understand anything for 30 minutes straight.
Such s load of pompous waffle.
What a waste of time.
Tooooooo long
Look at how this guy is dressed. This video is meant to make you a bum! Do not watch!!!