If anyone has the strength to get you interested in a subject not familiar to you....its Mr Sutherland, he has finesse in describing the usually unseen aspects of phenomena ... for me its a blessing to hear your talks
Regarding the traffic and speed I was pulled over by a police once because I slowed down when I noticed him even though I was going the speed limit. He followed me and pulled me over and asked me where I was coming from I told him work it was after 12 a.m. in the morning. He asked me why I slowed down. I told him because it's a natural instinct for me to slow down whenever I see the police.
Very interesting, it’s rare that I sit through entire Ted talk. The information in this talk has the potential to be life altering if applied correctly.
The term B.O.B. is actually an acronym meaning Bewust Onbeschonken Bestuurder (Concious Non-alcoholic Driver) meaning that if they ask you in Holland to be the BOB; you basically agree you won't drink (alcoholic) beverages that night.
+SquareWaveHeaven Same here. I worked in ad land. I loved my work AND hated it. But the worst was typical ad men; arrogant, backstabbing egotists. I needed this guy in the agencies I was at. It wouldn't have made me jaded and kept me in it because the whole ego thing ground me down. But this guy is fab
“Narrative arc can be created by many things, for example The scoring system in tennis. When we watch sport, we create a narrative to explain how the match went, even though this narrative can change 180degrees due to say a lucky shot that went in. In a way we create the meaning by creating a story, and then we create emotions from this created meaning
Arguments for not learning other languages are all very good. One argument for putting some effort into learning the language of the people you deal with, even if you do not become very good, is the message of respect you send. "You are worth my time." Language is also intertwined with culture. Apparently, the Japanese do not have a word for no, and there are reasons for that. If you learn that in the language, the reason the Japanese have difficulty in saying no, the product will not be delivered when you expect it is more understandable. Finns are less inclined to fill silence with small talk. They typically use language to acquire information. English speakers use it differently; they use it to establish whether this person is a friend or foe, hence the need for small talk. Finns don't seem to feel the need for small talk because they trust people.
Loved the comment from Planck. The math for economics is too hard. Agree that football has a degree of irrationality to it. It's just people mostly kicking a ball around. But the commentary is mostly fair since the people are trying to impose their will most of the time. Maybe Rory was just trying to prove his point of irrationality. Or rather maybe it's me being completely irrational. Off now to learn some Hungarian. And then zipper merging!
Interesting, of course, about the Minnesota example is that Minnesota has a lot of Swedish immigrants and the "zipper merge" has been an unwritten rule in Sweden for a lot longer than its existence across the pond.
the natural foreign language to learn being english is of course french. at least historically or traditionally. nowadays it is a sort of kaleidoscopic telescope of maybes but french is the old fashioned second language of english people. the french language and culture was always the most important
I feel that most "developed" countries in the world tend to overeat simply because a surplus is available... reading back what I just typed.. sounds like I'm in 3rd grade again.
@RorySutherland: Regarding the "economists and monopoly" quote you heard from Thaler, the same was said about subsidies and protectionism by Milton Friedman in "Free To Choose" almost 30 years ago. Everyone is against them, but they are for them when it comes to their own profession or industry.
@Anna Dobson. This is a perfectly fair observation. The very presence of the word Cocktail is a prompt. But I can't think of a way of testing this that would isolate these two effects in the real world - though you could do it in an online supermarket, I suspect.
Am I learning behavioral economics principals by viewing this video? I think I am. And he clarifies some implications in the realm of education, language learning, entertainment, in addition to decision-making, human agency, choice.
I like him. I think he would be fun friend for an outing. I don’t think he has ever seen Ronaldo practice. The man uses his feet better than the average person does hands. There is no luck in the way he handles a soccer or “football.” I really don’t have a problem with this speakers view of soccer. I just wanted to ensure that it’s understood. The value one person has in a sport doesn’t negate the immense practice and time a sports player has spent on perfecting a skill. There is luck in sports, and life. There is no doubt about that, but sports or life won’t happen by luck alone. One must actually play sports, and live life to have the chance to experience luck. Luck shouldn’t be a deciding factor to do or not do anything. Luck happens, and life happens. Luck is something that happens, and can sometimes make things more interesting.
He actually makes a little mistake at 20:30 when he talks about limonade. Limonade is a feminine word in french. He just switched the genders. No matter, I think his point comes across very well nonetheless. Great speach!
interesting thoughts on Dual Carriageway speed cameras made by Rory. My idea was they were designed to keep everyone in the "slow" lane, thus freeing up the passing (fast) lane for when it is required. In reality they were an easy cash grab as there was greater instinct to get ahead of the person in front of you as that 35 seconds you saved translates into millions in gain revenue.
Football and tennis are games of skill. A great team/player would beat a mediocre team/player pretty much 100% of the time, so mostly there is human agency, not luck.
You seem to forget about everything else he says on that particular subject. The individual human agency does matter when it comes down to an individual (as in tennis) and small increments (such in tennis), but in football you have a lot of individually very talented guys (and probably also in a team way talented) that are trying to work as a hive mind against another team trying to work as a hive mind, which in all effect will never work. Instead you've got 22 individuals on a field with their own somewhat random thoughts and actions which in the end gives a result that is pretty difficult to calculate beforehand (that is, random). Thus it is not deterministic, it is on account of randomness = mostly luck. If it weren't mostly based on luck, then people would be earning shitloads of money betting on every game because it was highly predictable who would win. It isn't (especially not when the two teams are highly equal, that is you don't have the brazilian national team play against little league, so yeah it is MOSTLY random not completely). The only reason why bookmakers usually make a lot of cash, cause their system of predicting outcomes are just as highly improbable as economics are, are because they adjust odds and bet rates in a way that makes it almost certain that they will earn quite a fair bit of money either way.
If you've ever done WoW raiding on a hardcore level, you'd truly understand what it means for something to be predictable. Fights like M'uru needed to be executed perfectly every single time, yet one tiny mistake from anyone could wipe the raid. Even though it was one of the most overly tuned fights ever, and only experienced raiders attempted it, there was still room for an 'unlucky' add placement or event caused by another raid member. What mrdillerfar touches on this, but I admit to only skimming his post. To put this into context, you're underestimating the variations of how a ball can be kicked, and how player placement can affect the kicker. There's a reason those in competitive sports and such psych themselves up, and learn to deal with stress; they don't want an unexpected event (bad luck) to mess with their performance. In short...Talazorn, I don't mean this in an offensive way, but I doubt you've ever played competitively with a statement such as that.
I feel as though I understood it, but you never know. Here is my take: Problems can be solved psychologically rather than numerically. Religious traditions might not make sense to us, but when you look at what they do, you can associate the benefit gained with laws we've enforced due to scientific studies. I think the example he made regarding the sabbath(sp?) says it quite well: if people are overworking, make one day a day off. However, to apply it as a simple law would not stick. Let's move to the "Designated Driver" and "Zipper Merge" effects, and apply it to why the "Sabbath" had a name, and stuck. It gave humans a way to associate with the law in a simple way which could be easily followed. So, basically, 'irrationality' to me simply means not thinking of the human brain as a computer, but more in the sense of meteorology(as he more or less stated), in that we must predict how to use information to influence the population rather than statistics. Again, I might have not understood it fully...I've always been interested in human psychology, so that is inevitably how I viewed his talk.
+Lester Dela Cruz ...that's his angle these guys can make shit sound fantastic and bullshit sound intelligent...they've been doing it for years....it's called the delusional concept they've promoted for 30 years and it looks like their winning...so you're not dumb, you're one of the lucky ones loll
Could the sheer novelty of the new placement of cocktail port not have played a role in the rise in spirits being bought? Did the research test at a follow up date?
Do you feel bad selling wine knowing that it's not helping people? There are likely better ways to deal with stress. Once upon a time there was a need alcohol when drinking water was of poor quality. What amazes me the most is that people think so much about how to maximize profit. None the less it was interesting to listen to.
to answer the final question, do not have all government as a single organization. there is no reason that the government that protects you should be the government that governs the roads. let them be separate with separate taxation for funding.
it actually is LA limonade though... 20:28. and french speakers can still understand you if you use the wrong gender, we will just know that you are learning the language and that it's not your first language.
I really get the argument that people want easy binary answers, and are inclined to repeat their past actions. But as I write in November 2024, the rise of populism threatens world peace. It’s clear that the insights of marketers have changed the world, and not for the better. What can be done to encourage independent thought?
I find him engaging insofar as he seems enthusiastic and more or less naturally confident and friendly in body language and a nice varied tone and tempo. He needed to define some of his field jargon, like Network Externalities, unless this TedX Event wasn't meant for a general audience, but But girl, what is he wearing!? It must be Arctic cold in there with his 4 layers! And why is he wearing trousers cut for a man several inches taller? I know it's superficial but I find his sartorial choices endearing and amusing in their eccentricity, nonetheless.
Rory, competent economists do not view monopolies as a bad thing. Michael Jackson has a monopoly on his voice, his performances, and character, but yet that is not hated by economists. there is problem here. the only problem with monopolies economists have is when the monopoly is forced(example: legislated and enforced by law, like mail, or energy, or healthcare, or money etc.) just for future reference =)
mj did not control MUSIC, the monopoly, he was a subset of the music "world". unless retailers/ local councils / politicians wake up amazon will soon be a monopoly... modern controlling factions are in a race to the bottom, would they raise their standards monopoly might be a good thing
I think you're mistaking value for monopoly. Providing value is not a monopoly if there are alternatives that compete. Your Michael Jackon analogy (having a monopoly on his voice), is like saying Coca Cola have a monopoly on Coca Cola.
4:02 Drugs can be synthetic, feelings/emotions, happiness and misery, among others, are THE CLOSEST to "ABSOLUTELY REAL" uhm, "things"...events...states of mind?
Technology may have advanced enough to release civilization from the confines of the second law of thermodynamics. These confines were imposed during Victorian England's scientific and religious cultural fascination with steam engines. The second law is behind modern refgeration needing electrical energy to compress the refrigerent to force it to release as waste the heat that it has removed from the refrigerator's service interior in the cooling part of the refrigerent's circulation. There is also discarded heat from mechanical friction and electrical resistance. The total released and discarded heat minus the removed heat equal the electrical input but the attached conversion of electricity into heat is forced. Refrigeration by the principle that energy is conserved should produce electricity instead of consuming it. It makes more sense that refrigerators should yield electricity because energy is widely known to change form with no ultimate path of energy gain or loss being found. Therefore any form of fully recyclable energy can be cycled endlessly in any quantity. In an extreme case senario, full heat recycling, all electric, very isolated underground, undersea, or space communities would be highly survivable with self sufficient EMP resistant LED light banks, automated vertical farms, thaw resistant frozen food storehouses, factories, dwellings, and self contained elevators and horizontal transports. In a flourishing civillization senario, small self sufficient electric or cooling devices of many kinds and styles like lamps, smartphones, hotplates, water heaters, cooler chests, fans, radios, TVs, cameras, security devices, robot test equipment, scales, transaction terminals, wall clocks, open or ciosed for business luminus signs, power hand tools, ditch diggers, pumps, and personal transports, would be available for immediate use incrementally anywhere as people see fit. Some equipment groups could be consolidated on local networks. If a high majority thinks our civilization should geoengineer gigatons or teratons of carbon dioxide out of our environment, instalations using devices that convert ambient heat into electricity can hypothetically be scaled up do it with a choice of comsequences including many beneficial ones. Energy sensible refrigerators that absorb heat and yield electricity would complement computers as computing consumes electricity and yields heat. Computing would be free. Chips could have energy recycling built in. A simple rectifier crystal can, iust short of a replicatable long term demonstration of a powerful prototype, almost certainly filter the random thermal motioren of electrons or discrete positiive charged voids called holes so the electric current flowing in one direction predominates. At low system voltage a filtrate of one polarity predominates only a little but there is always usable electrical power derived from the source, which is Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise. This net electrical filtrate can be aggregated in a group of separate diodes in consistent alignment parallel creating widely scalable electrical power. The maximum energy is converted from ambient heat to productive electricity when the electrical load is matched to the array impeadence. Matched impeadence output (watts) is k (Boltźman's constant), one point three eight x 10^ minus 23, times T (temperature Kelvin) times bandwidth (0 Hz to a natural limit ~2 THz @ 290 K) times rectification halving and nanowatt power level rectification efficiency, times the number of diodes in the array. For reference, there are a billion cells of 1000 square nanometer area each per square millimeter, 100 billion per square centimeter. Order is imposed on the random thermal motion of electrons by the structual orderlyness of a diode array made of diodes made within a slab: ______________________ - Out 🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻 ______________________ + Out All the P type semiconductor anodes abut a metal conductive plane deposited on the top face of the slab with nonrectifying joins; all the N type semiconductor cathodes abut the bottom face. As the polarity filtered electrical energy is exported, the amount of thermal energy in the group of diodes decreases. This group cooling will draw heat in from the surrounding ambient heat at a rate depending on the filtering rate and thermal resistance between the group and ambient gas, liquid, or solid warmer than absolute zero. There is a lot of ambient heat on our planet, more in equatorial dry desert summer days and less in polar desert winter nights. Focusing on explaining the electronic behavior of one composition of simple diode, a near flawless crystal of silicon is modified by implanting a small amount of phosphorus (N type)on one side from a ohmic contact end to a junction where the additive is suddenly and completely changed to boron (P type) with minimal disturbance of the crystal lattice. The crystal then continues to another ohmic contact. A region of high electrical resistance forms at the junction in this type of diode when the phosphorous near the ĵunction donates electrons that are free to move elsewhere while leaving phosphorus ions held in the crystal while the boron donates holes which are similalarly free to move. The two types of mobile charges mutually clear each other away near the junction leaving little electrical conductivity. An equlibrium width of this region is settled between the phosphorus, boron, electrons, and holes. Thermal noise is beyond steady state equlibrium. Thermal noise transients, where mobile electrons move from the phosphorus added side to the boron added side ride transient extra conductivity so the forward moving electrons are preferentally filtered into the external circuit. Mobile electrons are units of electric current. They lose their thermal energy of motion and gain electromotive force, another name for voltage, as they transition between the junction and the array electrical tap. Inside the diode, heat is absorbed: outside the diode, to exactly the same extent, an attached electrical circuit is energized. The voltage of a diode array is likely to be small so many similar arrays need to be put in series to build higher voltage. Understanding diodes is one way to become convinced that Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise can be rectified and aggregated. Self assembling development teams may find many ways to accomplish this wide mission. Taxonomically there should be many ways ways to convert heat directly into electricity. A practical device may use an array of Au needles in a SiO2 matrix abutting N type GaAs. These were made in the 1970s when registration technology was poor so it was easier to fabricate arrays and select one diode than just make one diode. There are other plausible breeches of the second law of thermodynamics. Hopefully a lot of people will join in expanding the breech. Please share the successes or setbacks of your efforts. These devices would probably become segmented commodities sold with minimal margin over supply cost. They would be manufactured by advanced automation that does not need financial incentive. Applicable best practices would be adopted. Business details would be open public knowledge. Associated people should move as negotiated and freely and honestly talk. Commerce would be a planetary scale unified conglomerate of diverse local cooperatives. There is no need of wealth extracting top commanders. We do not need often token philanthropy from the top if the wide majority of people can afford to be generous. Aloha Charles M Brown Kilauea Kauai Hawaii 96754
4:15 "The commentators will construct five-hundred or a thousand words of description". -- If he means they really milk it... This guy has been making the same point for the last four minutes.
John Weiss 3 months ago edited. In the comments stream, string or thread you sometimes see edited. Do you write War and Peace then upon reflection shorten it up to the size of a comment or a text? Does someone else edit the comment? Share what you know about this.
Network theory... Your bit about behavioural economics vs rational economics, and social heuristics... The assumption of expensive local compute, cheap global communication drives these deductions... May be the case may not be the case. People already spend more than a decade in schools, which is a medium of distributing said social heuristics. It cannot be that hard for people to just figure out the most acceptable behaviour themselves. How much do you want to teach in schools vs how much you want people to figure out by themselves... Things like rational thinking and mathematics are stored in the global communications network, and does not arise locally. Irrational things to be quite easy for a person to come up with, because they are aligned with the feelings mechanism of making decisions, which is not as influenced by the society as the rational thinking part which duplicates network information from society.
We do not learn minoritized languages because from the collective point of view it's impractical. But why it became so? may it have had to do with England's imperialist past? The logic fails in arguments like this. It is not enough to state the difference between an individual and a collective perspective without explaining the historicity of the collective and how it is related to taking responsibility for certain ways of thinking. In short, let's not learn languages and spend the whole day drinking in pubs, it is not our fault, the mechanisms to convince us to find other interests were designed badly.
Brits drive on the left, US drive on the right -- Brits use metric, US uses "standard" (go figure). -- Brits call a "trunk" a "boot", US can understand this, but Canada keeps asking "what's this all a boot?".
+Mark Cabides Hi Mark. The easiest way to think of a heuristic is as a rule of thumb. In this context, a heuristic is something that aids decision making. A heuristic is usually an assumption within a certain context. For example, if you are about to walk outside and you can see that everyone is wearing sunglasses, you might want to stick yours on too. This is based on the heuristic that if a lot of people are doing something, it's often the right thing to do. However, this does not apply in every situation (e.g. squeezing on to The Tube) Hope that helps
Also refers to 2nd hand learning. You can let someone share the experience hot stoves burn, and not need to touch the stove yourself to learn it burns.
Ahh the upper-class English talent of dancing between babble and coherent thought; between sips of wine of course 😁👍 He does speak quickly though, which I like - along with the odd joke to make it all more palatable.
If anyone has the strength to get you interested in a subject not familiar to you....its Mr Sutherland, he has finesse in describing the usually unseen aspects of phenomena ... for me its a blessing to hear your talks
I miss Britain and all the fantastic free lectures and debates which abound in quality and quantity like nowhere other.
(:
That's an interesting observation. I enjoy a lot of free lectures but never really identified them as bring a British thing.
I just binged all his talks, its been awhile since i really enjoyed a single TED talk much less 3 in a row.
Regarding the traffic and speed I was pulled over by a police once because I slowed down when I noticed him even though I was going the speed limit. He followed me and pulled me over and asked me where I was coming from I told him work it was after 12 a.m. in the morning. He asked me why I slowed down. I told him because it's a natural instinct for me to slow down whenever I see the police.
Did he give you a ticket or what happened next?
Very interesting, it’s rare that I sit through entire Ted talk. The information in this talk has the potential to be life altering if applied correctly.
The term B.O.B. is actually an acronym meaning Bewust Onbeschonken Bestuurder (Concious Non-alcoholic Driver) meaning that if they ask you in Holland to be the BOB; you basically agree you won't drink (alcoholic) beverages that night.
And BOB Doesn't have to buy a soft drink all night his friends buy it for him/her.
Hey guys look, it’s the guy from the UA-cam shorts!
Ikr 😂
I generally don't like marketing men, but this talk is both amusing and edifying. Well worth the listen!
+SquareWaveHeaven Same here. I worked in ad land. I loved my work AND hated it. But the worst was typical ad men; arrogant, backstabbing egotists. I needed this guy in the agencies I was at. It wouldn't have made me jaded and kept me in it because the whole ego thing ground me down. But this guy is fab
@@Anonymous-or4ru n
Well, he's not a marketing man, hes a creative advertising man. Big difference between the two.
Interesting and highly articulate arguments that easily disguise the fact that they are not watertight.
Still, totally worth the time for a listen. Nothing is really absolute.
“Narrative arc can be created by many things, for example
The scoring system in tennis. When we watch sport, we create a narrative to explain how the match went, even though this narrative can change 180degrees due to say a lucky shot that went in. In a way we create the meaning by creating a story, and then we create emotions from this created meaning
This guy is brilliant and has made me question my declared preference for the occasional glass. I applaud his perspective
Arguments for not learning other languages are all very good. One argument for putting some effort into learning the language of the people you deal with, even if you do not become very good, is the message of respect you send. "You are worth my time." Language is also intertwined with culture. Apparently, the Japanese do not have a word for no, and there are reasons for that. If you learn that in the language, the reason the Japanese have difficulty in saying no, the product will not be delivered when you expect it is more understandable. Finns are less inclined to fill silence with small talk. They typically use language to acquire information. English speakers use it differently; they use it to establish whether this person is a friend or foe, hence the need for small talk. Finns don't seem to feel the need for small talk because they trust people.
Loved the comment from Planck. The math for economics is too hard. Agree that football has a degree of irrationality to it. It's just people mostly kicking a ball around. But the commentary is mostly fair since the people are trying to impose their will most of the time. Maybe Rory was just trying to prove his point of irrationality. Or rather maybe it's me being completely irrational. Off now to learn some Hungarian. And then zipper merging!
That was an brilliant speech, kept me hooked the whole way through.
I want to work for/with people like this. RS is brilliant.
Anyone else experience an existential crisis during parts of this talk? 😳
More like existential crisis management for me.
Ongoing🥴
Interesting, of course, about the Minnesota example is that Minnesota has a lot of Swedish immigrants and the "zipper merge" has been an unwritten rule in Sweden for a lot longer than its existence across the pond.
the natural foreign language to learn being english is of course french. at least historically or traditionally. nowadays it is a sort of kaleidoscopic telescope of maybes but french is the old fashioned second language of english people. the french language and culture was always the most important
I feel that most "developed" countries in the world tend to overeat simply because a surplus is available... reading back what I just typed.. sounds like I'm in 3rd grade again.
@RorySutherland: Regarding the "economists and monopoly" quote you heard from Thaler, the same was said about subsidies and protectionism by Milton Friedman in "Free To Choose" almost 30 years ago. Everyone is against them, but they are for them when it comes to their own profession or industry.
Great talk. Enjoyed it very much.
@Anna Dobson. This is a perfectly fair observation. The very presence of the word Cocktail is a prompt. But I can't think of a way of testing this that would isolate these two effects in the real world - though you could do it in an online supermarket, I suspect.
Nicely observed insights. I always find Rory Sutherland talks fascinating.
if only our politicians were as able...
5:20 "When we cease to believe in God, we'll believe in anything."
-- It sounds better to say "We'll *fall* for anything."
Am I learning behavioral economics principals by viewing this video? I think I am. And he clarifies some implications in the realm of education, language learning, entertainment, in addition to decision-making, human agency, choice.
What a joy to listen to and what great insights. Love it!
gdrgdrhr
I like him. I think he would be fun friend for an outing. I don’t think he has ever seen Ronaldo practice. The man uses his feet better than the average person does hands. There is no luck in the way he handles a soccer or “football.” I really don’t have a problem with this speakers view of soccer. I just wanted to ensure that it’s understood. The value one person has in a sport doesn’t negate the immense practice and time a sports player has spent on perfecting a skill. There is luck in sports, and life. There is no doubt about that, but sports or life won’t happen by luck alone. One must actually play sports, and live life to have the chance to experience luck. Luck shouldn’t be a deciding factor to do or not do anything. Luck happens, and life happens. Luck is something that happens, and can sometimes make things more interesting.
Great talk and all... but why is he wearing so many shirts?
A random sequence of behavioural events ...
Jimi Sayo oobooooo
Jimi Sayo oooooooooooooo
Jimi Sayo oooooooooooooooooooo
Jimi Sayo oooooooooooooooooooooooooo
He actually makes a little mistake at 20:30 when he talks about limonade. Limonade is a feminine word in french. He just switched the genders. No matter, I think his point comes across very well nonetheless. Great speach!
Brilliant, insightful speaker.
Interesting conversation
This is fascinating!
Get his audio book ‘Alchemy’ it’s brilliant.
I'm pretty sure the Minnesota zipper merge is exactly what is required by the highway code
interesting thoughts on Dual Carriageway speed cameras made by Rory. My idea was they were designed to keep everyone in the "slow" lane, thus freeing up the passing (fast) lane for when it is required. In reality they were an easy cash grab as there was greater instinct to get ahead of the person in front of you as that 35 seconds you saved translates into millions in gain revenue.
this man is amazing.
id pay to seem him speak in person
oh rory, i love you so much!
Believing in everything does not create anything.
Speaking of learned behaviors, what am I clapping for? This is a pre-taped session.
Football and tennis are games of skill. A great team/player would beat a mediocre team/player pretty much 100% of the time, so mostly there is human agency, not luck.
You seem to forget about everything else he says on that particular subject.
The individual human agency does matter when it comes down to an individual (as in tennis) and small increments (such in tennis), but in football you have a lot of individually very talented guys (and probably also in a team way talented) that are trying to work as a hive mind against another team trying to work as a hive mind, which in all effect will never work. Instead you've got 22 individuals on a field with their own somewhat random thoughts and actions which in the end gives a result that is pretty difficult to calculate beforehand (that is, random). Thus it is not deterministic, it is on account of randomness = mostly luck.
If it weren't mostly based on luck, then people would be earning shitloads of money betting on every game because it was highly predictable who would win. It isn't (especially not when the two teams are highly equal, that is you don't have the brazilian national team play against little league, so yeah it is MOSTLY random not completely). The only reason why bookmakers usually make a lot of cash, cause their system of predicting outcomes are just as highly improbable as economics are, are because they adjust odds and bet rates in a way that makes it almost certain that they will earn quite a fair bit of money either way.
If you've ever done WoW raiding on a hardcore level, you'd truly understand what it means for something to be predictable. Fights like M'uru needed to be executed perfectly every single time, yet one tiny mistake from anyone could wipe the raid. Even though it was one of the most overly tuned fights ever, and only experienced raiders attempted it, there was still room for an 'unlucky' add placement or event caused by another raid member.
What mrdillerfar touches on this, but I admit to only skimming his post.
To put this into context, you're underestimating the variations of how a ball can be kicked, and how player placement can affect the kicker. There's a reason those in competitive sports and such psych themselves up, and learn to deal with stress; they don't want an unexpected event (bad luck) to mess with their performance.
In short...Talazorn, I don't mean this in an offensive way, but I doubt you've ever played competitively with a statement such as that.
That really was soooo good!
Brillant!
a must watch
soccer=tribalism so football=tribalism. TreB gives two thumbs up.
Thank youu for it all
I feel like this guy is saying something smart but I'm just too dumb to get any of it...
I feel as though I understood it, but you never know. Here is my take:
Problems can be solved psychologically rather than numerically. Religious traditions might not make sense to us, but when you look at what they do, you can associate the benefit gained with laws we've enforced due to scientific studies.
I think the example he made regarding the sabbath(sp?) says it quite well: if people are overworking, make one day a day off. However, to apply it as a simple law would not stick. Let's move to the "Designated Driver" and "Zipper Merge" effects, and apply it to why the "Sabbath" had a name, and stuck. It gave humans a way to associate with the law in a simple way which could be easily followed.
So, basically, 'irrationality' to me simply means not thinking of the human brain as a computer, but more in the sense of meteorology(as he more or less stated), in that we must predict how to use information to influence the population rather than statistics.
Again, I might have not understood it fully...I've always been interested in human psychology, so that is inevitably how I viewed his talk.
Same here :)
+Lester Dela Cruz ...that's his angle these guys can make shit sound fantastic and bullshit sound intelligent...they've been doing it for years....it's called the delusional concept they've promoted for 30 years and it looks like their winning...so you're not dumb, you're one of the lucky ones loll
TheTrueforeigner
Right, and the fact that you can't type a proper sentence clearly makes you qualified to say that.
~_~
Literally had this exact thought watching this, to some of what he was saying
Could the sheer novelty of the new placement of cocktail port not have played a role in the rise in spirits being bought? Did the research test at a follow up date?
Do you feel bad selling wine knowing that it's not helping people? There are likely better ways to deal with stress. Once upon a time there was a need alcohol when drinking water was of poor quality. What amazes me the most is that people think so much about how to maximize profit. None the less it was interesting to listen to.
behavioralist in five shirts in front of a strange array of red prop bottles
to answer the final question, do not have all government as a single organization. there is no reason that the government that protects you should be the government that governs the roads. let them be separate with separate taxation for funding.
Hereto or more correctly hereafter these events are moving through a period which they periodically move through.
20:03 the language thing is so true
god, he must be sweltering!
Does anyone else think he looks like the older, wiser brother of Andy Serkis?
it actually is LA limonade though... 20:28. and french speakers can still understand you if you use the wrong gender, we will just know that you are learning the language and that it's not your first language.
It's good forthe economyofmy local community
I really get the argument that people want easy binary answers, and are inclined to repeat their past actions. But as I write in November 2024, the rise of populism threatens world peace. It’s clear that the insights of marketers have changed the world, and not for the better. What can be done to encourage independent thought?
I find him engaging insofar as he seems enthusiastic and more or less naturally confident and friendly in body language and a nice varied tone and tempo.
He needed to define some of his field jargon, like Network Externalities, unless this TedX Event wasn't meant for a general audience, but
But girl, what is he wearing!? It must be Arctic cold in there with his 4 layers! And why is he wearing trousers cut for a man several inches taller? I know it's superficial but I find his sartorial choices endearing and amusing in their eccentricity, nonetheless.
The elite with plummy accents can get away with shabby appearance! 😂
Well said 😄
Rory,
competent economists do not view monopolies as a bad thing. Michael Jackson has a monopoly on his voice, his performances, and character, but yet that is not hated by economists. there is problem here. the only problem with monopolies economists have is when the monopoly is forced(example: legislated and enforced by law, like mail, or energy, or healthcare, or money etc.)
just for future reference =)
mj did not control MUSIC, the monopoly, he was a subset of the music "world". unless retailers/ local councils / politicians wake up amazon will soon be a monopoly... modern controlling factions are in a race to the bottom, would they raise their standards monopoly might be a good thing
I think you're mistaking value for monopoly. Providing value is not a monopoly if there are alternatives that compete. Your Michael Jackon analogy (having a monopoly on his voice), is like saying Coca Cola have a monopoly on Coca Cola.
Why do I see white Neil degrass Tyson
Yes!! Maybe it’s their obvious enthusiasm and engagement?
99 bottles of beer on the wall backdrop.
I just love his view on wine
the doctor
lol yeah he'd make a great dr. who
I was convinced he was Andy Serkis , Gollum from Lord of the Rings. 👀
Nice subtle tag for SW Airlines btw lolz ;>
4:02 Drugs can be synthetic, feelings/emotions, happiness and misery, among others, are THE CLOSEST to "ABSOLUTELY REAL" uhm, "things"...events...states of mind?
those god dam bookshelves
Maybe they look like statistics lol
12:00 the moment Rory invented the current gin and tonic industry
Amazing .
"stickability" ...TreB notes for near future use ;>
Any relationship with Autherland lumber?
Technology may have advanced enough to release civilization from the confines of the second law of thermodynamics.
These confines were imposed during Victorian England's scientific and religious cultural fascination with steam engines.
The second law is behind modern refgeration needing electrical energy to compress the refrigerent to force it to release as waste the heat that it has removed from the refrigerator's service interior in the cooling part of the refrigerent's circulation. There is also discarded heat from mechanical friction and electrical resistance. The total released and discarded heat minus the removed heat equal the electrical input but the attached conversion of electricity into heat is forced.
Refrigeration by the principle that energy is conserved should produce electricity instead of consuming it.
It makes more sense that refrigerators should yield electricity because energy is widely known to change form with no ultimate path of energy gain or loss being found. Therefore any form of fully recyclable energy can be cycled endlessly in any quantity.
In an extreme case senario, full heat recycling, all electric, very isolated underground, undersea, or space communities would be highly survivable with self sufficient EMP resistant LED light banks, automated vertical farms, thaw resistant frozen food storehouses, factories, dwellings, and self contained elevators and horizontal transports.
In a flourishing civillization senario, small self sufficient electric or cooling devices of many kinds and styles like lamps, smartphones, hotplates, water heaters, cooler chests, fans, radios, TVs, cameras, security devices, robot test equipment, scales, transaction terminals, wall clocks, open or ciosed for business luminus signs, power hand tools, ditch diggers, pumps, and personal transports, would be available for immediate use incrementally anywhere as people see fit.
Some equipment groups could be consolidated on local networks.
If a high majority thinks our civilization should geoengineer gigatons or
teratons of carbon dioxide out of our environment, instalations using devices that convert ambient heat into electricity can hypothetically be scaled up do it with a choice of comsequences including many beneficial ones.
Energy sensible refrigerators that absorb heat and yield electricity would complement computers as computing consumes electricity and yields heat. Computing would be free. Chips could have energy recycling built in.
A simple rectifier crystal can, iust short of a replicatable long term demonstration of a powerful prototype, almost certainly filter the random thermal motioren of electrons or discrete positiive charged voids called holes so the electric current flowing in one direction predominates. At low system voltage a filtrate of one polarity predominates only a little but there is always usable electrical power derived from the source, which is Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise. This net electrical filtrate can be aggregated in a group of separate diodes in consistent alignment parallel creating widely scalable electrical power. The maximum energy is converted from ambient heat to productive electricity when the electrical load is matched to the array impeadence.
Matched impeadence output (watts) is k (Boltźman's constant), one point three eight x 10^ minus 23, times T (temperature Kelvin) times bandwidth (0 Hz to a natural limit ~2 THz @ 290 K) times rectification halving and nanowatt power level rectification efficiency, times the number of diodes in the array.
For reference, there are a billion cells of 1000 square nanometer area each per square millimeter, 100 billion per square centimeter.
Order is imposed on the random thermal motion of electrons by the structual orderlyness of a diode array made of diodes made within a slab:
______________________ - Out
🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻
______________________ + Out
All the P type semiconductor anodes abut a metal conductive plane deposited on the top face of the slab with nonrectifying joins; all the N type semiconductor cathodes abut the bottom face. As the polarity filtered electrical energy is exported, the amount of thermal energy in the group of diodes decreases. This group cooling will draw heat in from the surrounding ambient heat at a rate depending on the filtering rate and thermal resistance between the group and ambient gas, liquid, or solid warmer than absolute zero. There is a lot of ambient heat on our planet, more in equatorial dry desert summer days and less in polar desert winter nights.
Focusing on explaining the electronic behavior of one composition of simple diode, a near flawless crystal of silicon is modified by implanting a small amount of phosphorus (N type)on one side from a ohmic contact end to a junction where the additive is suddenly and completely changed to boron (P type) with minimal disturbance of the crystal lattice. The crystal then continues to another ohmic contact.
A region of high electrical resistance forms at the junction in this type of diode when the phosphorous near the ĵunction donates electrons that are free to move elsewhere while leaving phosphorus ions held in the crystal while the boron donates holes which are similalarly free to move. The two types of mobile charges mutually clear each other away near the junction leaving little electrical conductivity. An equlibrium width of this region is settled between the phosphorus, boron, electrons, and holes. Thermal noise is beyond steady state equlibrium. Thermal noise transients, where mobile electrons move from the phosphorus added side to the boron added side ride transient extra conductivity so the forward moving electrons are preferentally filtered into the external circuit. Mobile electrons are units of electric current. They lose their thermal energy of motion and gain electromotive force, another name for voltage, as they transition between the junction and the array electrical tap. Inside the diode, heat is absorbed: outside the diode, to exactly the same extent, an attached electrical circuit is energized. The voltage of a diode array is likely to be small so many similar arrays need to be put in series to build higher voltage.
Understanding diodes is one way to become convinced that Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise can be rectified and aggregated. Self assembling development teams may find many ways to accomplish this wide mission. Taxonomically there should be many ways ways to convert heat directly into electricity.
A practical device may use an array of Au needles in a SiO2 matrix abutting N type GaAs. These were made in the 1970s when registration technology was poor so it was easier to fabricate arrays and select one diode than just make one diode.
There are other plausible breeches of the second law of thermodynamics. Hopefully a lot of people will join in expanding the breech. Please share the successes or setbacks of your efforts.
These devices would probably become segmented commodities sold with minimal margin over supply cost. They would be manufactured by advanced automation that does not need financial incentive. Applicable best practices would be adopted. Business details would be open public knowledge. Associated people should move as negotiated and freely and honestly talk. Commerce would be a planetary scale unified conglomerate of diverse local cooperatives. There is no need of wealth extracting top commanders. We do not need often token philanthropy from the top if the wide majority of people can afford to be generous.
Aloha
Charles M Brown
Kilauea Kauai Hawaii 96754
...loves the delusional concept and will work it like a pro
Please I need subtitles to understand this in Spanish
Yes, he does speak English rather quickly--but imagine how fast it would seem to us if he were speaking in Spanish!
I wonder why there are red bottles in the background? 🤔
Red and white to tedx color scheme, the background as he speaks from the red. On the floor.
There is no way 10 cars per lane is more efficient than a zipper. Maybe 2 or 1.5.
Same issue football
Food
Football
Basket ball
Tennis
Thanks Sir so much
The e cigs comment aged like a bottle of the ol redorwhite
well you should say LA limonade :)
Andy Serkis?
the word he was searching for is tandem
4:15 "The commentators will construct five-hundred or a thousand words of description".
-- If he means they really milk it... This guy has been making the same point for the last four minutes.
John Weiss 3 months ago edited. In the comments stream, string or thread you sometimes see edited. Do you write War and Peace then upon reflection shorten it up to the size of a comment or a text? Does someone else edit the comment? Share what you know about this.
@@nicholasgardiner9601 not sure what you're saying. If it says "edited" that means i edited it.
@@johnywhy4679 replying to Johnny why okay thank you. Express Yourself!
good
Network theory...
Your bit about behavioural economics vs rational economics, and social heuristics...
The assumption of expensive local compute, cheap global communication drives these deductions...
May be the case may not be the case. People already spend more than a decade in schools, which is a medium of distributing said social heuristics. It cannot be that hard for people to just figure out the most acceptable behaviour themselves.
How much do you want to teach in schools vs how much you want people to figure out by themselves... Things like rational thinking and mathematics are stored in the global communications network, and does not arise locally. Irrational things to be quite easy for a person to come up with, because they are aligned with the feelings mechanism of making decisions, which is not as influenced by the society as the rational thinking part which duplicates network information from society.
Fine
Why football players can play a game about 90minutes its the longest term play
Finally a man who shares my view on wine.
The single most pretentious beverage in these times.
We do not learn minoritized languages because from the collective point of view it's impractical. But why it became so? may it have had to do with England's imperialist past? The logic fails in arguments like this. It is not enough to state the difference between an individual and a collective perspective without explaining the historicity of the collective and how it is related to taking responsibility for certain ways of thinking. In short, let's not learn languages and spend the whole day drinking in pubs, it is not our fault, the mechanisms to convince us to find other interests were designed badly.
TreB MoMeNt here: In the US, "right lane" drivers should ALWAYS have lower speed than to their left lanes. You Brits.. *chuckles*...
Brits drive on the left, US drive on the right -- Brits use metric, US uses "standard" (go figure). -- Brits call a "trunk" a "boot", US can understand this, but Canada keeps asking "what's this all a boot?".
Dear Canada: "What's it all a boot"? Answer "Alfie!" ;-)
behavioralist to audience: this is how we prey on you you amoebas. audience: clap clap clap
Can someone explain to me what a hereistic is? I'm jus askn here case I got more questions
+Mark Cabides Hi Mark. The easiest way to think of a heuristic is as a rule of thumb. In this context, a heuristic is something that aids decision making. A heuristic is usually an assumption within a certain context. For example, if you are about to walk outside and you can see that everyone is wearing sunglasses, you might want to stick yours on too. This is based on the heuristic that if a lot of people are doing something, it's often the right thing to do. However, this does not apply in every situation (e.g. squeezing on to The Tube)
Hope that helps
Also refers to 2nd hand learning. You can let someone share the experience hot stoves burn, and not need to touch the stove yourself to learn it burns.
Best description of heuristics! You win the Internet today! ;-)
He speaks so much and says so little.
Plugaru C. Sebastian it’s filler bro
Ahh the upper-class English talent of dancing between babble and coherent thought; between sips of wine of
course 😁👍 He does speak quickly though, which I like - along with the odd joke to make it all more palatable.
Whereas you text eight words and say nothing. In reply to Plugaru C. Sebastian's 1st comment.
I think he said quite a lot.
As an autistic person, almost non of the things he says is applicable to me
His comments on the randomised nature of football is absolute nonsense.
HIS COMMENTS' ARE WELL PRESENTED HERE. VERY WELL STATED! GOD BLESS YOU ALL.
Is it because they have to thing a stragedy ?
How about raising your social standing: ..... I teach you Turkish, Rory.!
All about the nudging.....
his cloths has gone binary.
Binary like,2 4 8 16
Is his trouser size a part of his thesis?