One other factor is the collection we already have at home. A lot of us are working through what we have before we buy any more. Too many whiskeytubers telling us the “must have” bottles that are okay and just sit on my shelf untouched.
@jeromeschmidt7805, this is my exact situation! Bought way more than I should have, and now I get to just sit back and discover what I really enjoy or what is only enjoyable with friends/family. I hope the bubble bursts on the whiskey market. When it does, maybe I will have worked through my collection and be ready to jump back in.
I had 44 bottles at my highest. I felt overwhelmed. I know people who have more and I can’t imagine how that feels. My strategy to drink it down was finish 2, replace with one, until I got down to 10 bottles. Interestingly enough, now I only have 3 bottles. And I replace 1 for 1 now. I’m much happier.
Yup, a couple years ago I said I'd draw the line at 100 ...and have since FAR exceeded that 😅 Now I can just sit back and drink and share what I have, maybe pick up an occasional bottle that seems interesting or on the hot list.
When Jack 10 and 12 become readily available at MSRP, then we know it's real. They're still sitting there in most of the nation if you can find them for 3x MSRP.
Your comment about selling excess in the foreign market (eg. abroad) is valid BUT (and it is a big 'but') here in the UK we have a starved market with just a few 'heritage' distillers plying their wares over here (Wild Turkey, Buffalo Trace, Jim Beam, Four Roses & Jack Daniels being the main five), if other bottles appeared on the market there would definitely be a 'splurge' of sales for them at first and hopefully that would equate to repeat sales. As an example, we only get Benchmark #8 over here from the whole Benchmark series, no full proof, no top floor, etc. so they would definitely appeal to the Bourbon market here in the UK for two reasons, one - we don't see them on the shelves and two - the price (Budget Benchmarks would be so appealing to a lot of Bourbon drinkers as cheap daily sippers), then there's the 'mid priced' market Bourbons that would appeal to the discerning drinkers too. As I said we have a starved market here for choice in the UK and I for one would be interested in seeing far more Bourbons on the shelf, more choice just means you actually buy more (which I've learnt from watching the US Bourbon market grow over the last ten years or so), so it's a win for the seller and it's a win for the buyer, so I'm looking forward to seeing far more Bourbon for sale here in the UK in the not too distant future ! If you look at Jack Daniels they released their bonded, bonded rye & bonded triple mash in 700ml bottles which is the standard UK compliant spirit bottle size (rather than the 750ml US standard bottle size), so that tells me that JD are already gearing up for the foreign market rather than the domestic US market and prioritising the foreign first (hence the 70cl bottle size in the US). So if one legacy distiller is already thinking of this then there's no reason to assume that the other major players are not doing the same thing too ! Okay we have a starved market but we do have some great prices, I can go into anyone of the big five supermarkets and buy Buffalo Trace for £20 ($25), Eagle Rare for £30 ($38), Bulleit for £22 ($28) and Bulleit 10yr for £34 ($43) which when you consider they are always in stock and the price includes all taxes is not a bad price ! I just wish that we had more choices (eg. the 12yr Bulleit rye, Old Grandad, Benchmarks, ECBP, etc., etc.). I understand what you are saying but I for one would be happy to be 'flooded' by excess American Bourbon on my own domestic UK market, so very, very, very happy indeed !
This is true, but the economics of craft distilleries do not really allow them to go to foreign markets. As an example, when we sent bottles of The Prideful Goat to Canada they needed to be priced at $120 vs our normal $75 price. The price would be vent higher for the European market. Importers don't want to risk bringing in bottles of something craft at a price of $125 per bottle when there are so many higher age stated scotches available. So it is true that the legacy distilleries can kill it in foreign markets, it isn't much of an opportunity for high cost craft producers.
Thank you for the valuable/educational information. I appreciate you putting these pod casts together. I have started sharing my limited collection with others and have gained several new friends.
I really appreciate your content and your insights. One thing I notice when I listen to the podcast version is that your mic audio is set a fair bit lower than your intro song so I crank the volume on you and then the intro song comes on and I almost jump out of my seat. :). Not a deal breaker but if you can equalize your audio somehow that would be super. Cheers and keep up the great content.
@@BourbonRealTalk a little over a year. By no means an expert! I have been on a barrel pick recently, I didn't realize the importance of it, I thought everyone got to do that! 🤣
The bottling plant is not for sale anymore and there's no evidence they ever sold it or the Rickhouse they had recently purchased. More than likely the website was never updated after Barrel Craft bought the property. It's been 2 months since those rumors were circulating and nothing has come of it. We would have heard by now if they were in serious trouble.
@@Boo_Yeahdisagree just because your not hearing anything about this doesn't mean things are peachy at barrell. They sold a ton of barrels cheap to many NDP companies to try and stay afloat. And losing money on barrels is not a good business plan. Just saying. Is there a heavy hitter investor coming to the rescue? In this market I would have to say no. Whiskey markets are risky at best and the fact that most distillers are so secretive about who they distribute to makes it really hard for most to even understand how this all works. Time will tell but I don't have high hopes for some NDP in the coming years.
I am a Realtor and I do not think there is a coming real estate collapse. I sell houses and I shop for barrels, and the market indicators for those markets are very very different.
As a note on the retail/consumer side, just this morning I was doing the rounds and talked to a manager at one of the larger stores here in Connecticut near me. He mentioned he got "extra allocation" drops recently after being told initially the 2 or 3 bottles they first received was all they could give them. A month later, he got more of those products (Blood Oaths, Redbreast LEs etc) and the rep told him that smaller stores are TURNING DOWN ALLOCATION! No space on the shelf and they are having a hard time taking on more pricey inventory and are starting to say no. It's a clear domino effect from consumer to retailer to producer. And they are starting to tumble.
@@rstrunk85 true, some stores get a Weller Special Reserve and price it like a BTAC 😂 But there is the volume game that they have a difficult time with also. They don't qualify for a full case and the discount that comes with it. Also distributors can't bank on telling a small store that they will definitely get another allotment in a month or two. That product scarcity for the store also drives up the price (not to mention the bottles sell, eventually, at the markup. So they continue their pricing.) I think what I am seeing is these lesser known high dollar bottles are coming in yet the store still has "special editions" from two or three years ago still sitting on their shelf without much buyer interest why would a store manager fork over more capital towards slow moving products? Perhaps with a glut of products on the shelves srp prices eventually come down overall but that will take a lot of time to happen.
Booze has always gone in cycles. I've been drinking both wine and spirits since the 1990s, so I've seen a few booze fads come and go. In the wine industry, there have been periodic "wine lakes" as a massive oversupply hits the market. Wine is in this situation currently. France has paid growers to remove vines, and lower grade wine has been distilled into industrial alcohol and hand sanitizer. Maybe there is a "bourbon lake" sitting out there. When this happens, the lower quality products lose essentially all of their value because demand collapses at that end of the market. Higher end products with strong brand recognition always get through it just fine. Even with a wine lake sitting out there, first growth Bordeaux will continue to sell for exorbitant prices. Even with a bourbon lake sitting out there, taters will still drool over Pappy and BTAC. I will not be surprised if a significant market correction is coming. Many people have observed a softening in the secondary market. I've seen some mid-level allocated products (such as Henry McKenna 10-year) return to shelves and become readily available. I have a rule regarding allocated bourbon - I don't hunt it, I won't wait in a line for it, and I will pay what I think it is worth (which can be more than MSRP if I think MSRP is too low, but not the prices that museums have been charging in recent years) if I stumble onto it. I've been stumbling onto mid-level allocated bourbon lately, and Buffalo Trace products are materializing in my collection even though I'm not putting in any effort or extra money to get them - most recently a bottle of Rock Hill Farms for $63. Additionally, the situation presented in this video adds to the evidence of a coming correction. People have observed Barrell pulling back and selling stuff off. I hope they make it through this, even if they have to contract their business, as I love their products. Smaller NDPs that don't have a distinctive product or brand identity might be in trouble. The proliferation of craft distilleries can't go on forever; those that don't make the cut on quality and those that have too much debt could be in for some hard times, and not all will make it. Those that have a reasonably diverse product line, including products like gin that can be sold immediately after production, might have a better chance. The craft distilleries that are getting into agave spirits and rum might be the smart ones; agave spirits are booming, and rum is showing signs of life and could be the next big thing in barrel aged spirits. Bourbon is showing signs of getting tired. Maybe history is repeating itself. By the 1960s, it had become an uncool dad drink, and to the young hipsters, it was hopelessly square. It's starting to feel that way again; bourbon's primary demographic is middle aged and older men (and I suppose the occasional old hag like me). Also, a lot of people (myself included) are sick and tired of the frenzied scramble for allocated bottles. Young people (who are the potential future market) seem to prefer weed over booze, and those who are drinking spirits are drawn to agave spirits. Out of the specialty bars I visit, wine bars have the oldest crowd, and I think wine is in serious long term trouble if the industry doesn't work hard to attract a younger demographic. It's the preferred drink of old crones like me, and we might be even more uncool than the old men who swill bourbon. Whisky bars are more mixed, but there are a lot of gray heads in those bars too. Tequila and mezcal bars, on the other hand, are full of youthful energy. These places make me feel old, but I enjoy tequila and mezcal, so I visit them anyway. Fancy cocktail bars get some younger people too, and I've seen them order whisky-based cocktails; maybe this is a bright spot for the future of whisky.
To add to your take, Henry McKenna has been pretty hard to find in my area for a while. Last week, my local Costco displayed a full pallet that was stacked about 5-6 feet high with Henry McKenna. McKenna is probably one of the easier “harder” bottles to find but I’ve never seen a full pallet on the floor of a big box store before this.
Really appreciate your sentiment and love your attitude towards bourbon chasing. I think you’re right in many facets. I especially agree that rum and/or agave spirits are going to be the next “cool” thing when it comes to aged spirits. As someone who fairly recently found an appreciation for bourbon, I personally have started branching out and trying new sipping rums as the novelty of bourbon has worn off quickly after the realization that the allocated products are not much better than most of my bottom/mid shelf go-tos. Cheers man!
There was a comment further up that said that there is no real evidence of barrell craft selling off their bottling plant and rickhouse. They never sold, and it may have just been that the listings were never updated after barrell craft aquired them. Barrell doesnt seem to be slowing down, and they actually just branched out over seas. I dont think they would have expanded their sales overseas if they were slowing down and selling off major properties they just aquired. He may be right and the listings just never got updated after barrell bought them
@@jacksmith2315 Not what I have heard the rumors are true and unfortunately they may be the first big domino to fall. They almost exclusively occupy the segment of the market he was warning about in the video $12 per year is top dollar and in the long run only sustainable for the legacy distilleries and even then not 10 years from now. The only real bailout for the bourbon market is overseas but that is sustainable either.
I think it will be more of a leveling out. Bourbon was undervalued for awhile, there was big growth, but companies tried to take advantage. Now you get it starting to level. I can tell by what is available now.
I haven't finished watching the video, but so far 100% agree. One thing you haven't mentioned yet in the video is the uptick in tequila. I can only speak from my experience, but locally have seen 2 tequila-centric bars pop up, and my visits to the liquor store see less people searching the whiskey isles. It's mostly the regular 1.75L Jack guys and the flavored whiskey folks that i see. Within the past few months I've noticed my state's liquor stores have increased availability of what I consider good/ harder to find bottles. Perhaps in some areas it's different, but for a while it was hard to find bottles like ECBP, Bookers, anything Barrell, Penelope, 4 roses small batch select ( on the shelf for 3 months wtf?), hell last year i had a hard time finding WT101! That had me very worried. In summary, I sincerely hope everyone who invested money in the whiskey boom comes out on top. However, I will welcome the increase in access to what has been to harder to find bottles and lower prices.
Truly appreciate your content. I’ve cut way back on my bourbon drinking but you are one of the few whiskey content creators who I still follow because your content is solid (and your whiskey is fantastic). The current whiskey market has been due for a shakeout. The manipulation in just about every segment of this industry (esp. investment groups) coupled with the ramp up in production in response to the frenetic demand was bound to come to a head. Looks like that time is coming sooner than later.
I was just about to say the same. I live in D.C. and can go to places in Maryland and Virginia. Whole area is so greedy on bottles. Bottles just sit in stores forever at ridiculous prices. But someone must be buying just enough for these guys to keep doing it. I stopped going past $65 for anything. Luckily, I have one store here where I can buy the usual for MSRP -- like Old Forrester, Buffalo Trace, etc. But they're the only one.
Same here, I can get knob creek barrel select, old forester 1910 or wild turkey rare breed all under $60 in northern Kentucky and they’re all pretty great pours to me
People may be getting tired of paying exorbitant prices for bourbon. It may be part of the general spirits spirits and wine cycles. Or it could be part of a general recession that is feared. The strip clubs have already seen a marked decline in clients. The new car market has contracted over 20% Anything spending viewed as a splurge or a luxury good maybe in trouble.
ummm...the black market has had impact as well. Bottle Chasing. Regardless, the industry is experiencing what all other niches go through. It is a sign of high demand. There is always a 'check'. It's a bubble, plain and simple.
Excellent info. We can already see the secondary market falling over the past few months on everything aside from the most in demand product. I'm also seeing the major chain liquor stores in my area discounting multiple bottles from NDPs that aren't selling at their high asking prices. It's only a matter of time now.
Some market correction is to be expected. I love a selection as much as anyone but is there really sustaining demand for hundreds and hundreds of different bourbons? Not likely.
I enjoy your analytics of the industry, a lot. Fascinating industry. Should be a capstone for an MBA program. I feel like we've passed thru the "love affair" with scotch and moved on to bourbon. And I think we'll see the sunset of mass adoration of bourbon and the "new kid in town" will be tequila. We'll see. Thanks for sharing.
Yeah I’m seeing this at my local honey holes. The usual suspects obviously sell like hotcakes and once in a while a new product will fly but a lot of these smaller brands popping up are just sitting there.
I got into bourbon and rye a few years ago and wound up with around 30 bottles. I quickly realized that drinking every day is a terrible idea and that the hyped whiskeys are generally not worth it. Haven’t bought a new bottle in over a year.
same except i'm going on closer to two years here. i still have like 40 bottles of really good whiskey to pick from any time i want to pour something. Truthfully, I'm set for years at this pace.
I've bought over 50 cases of $40-$60 MSRP Bourbons (plus a stack of age-stated Rye, and another of a $90 MSRP single cask Rum) on $10-$15/ bottle deep clearance in the last four weeks. It's more a correction than a crash. Bourbon 'should be' a $20-50 product. When you vampire 2x to 5x that for too long, the market provides harsh corrections. The collector market is slowing big time, but the casual consumers that actually drink bottles are buying about the same. I'm finding I have regular customers that are leaning to the clearance and bottom shelf whiskeys more often in the mix than the last couple years. The marginal brands, brands with poor promotion, and overpriced brands are in for a rough haul in the next two years.
I won’t pretend to understand the bourbon market. BUT…. I am a Kentucky resident and the amount of new distilleries and Rick Houses that have popped up in the last 10 years has to affect supply to a point that it could get where supply could out pace demand and start to affect price. Legacy brands have really ramped up as well. With that said, people will always want the products that are extremely hard to get and willing to pay more for it. It would not surprise me if distilleries throttle those products and release them in small waves to make them appear they are harder to get than they really are. We have seen this practice done in many different industries to try in keep demand up to Covid panic buying levels.
You two obviously dont live or shop for bourbon in Florida. There is zero slowing down in the bourbon marketplace. We have several local liquor stores where people camp out overnight just for a chance to get an allocated bottle. And are willing to pay crazy secondary prices.
I suspect you saw the title and commented without watching the video. I specifically state that this video is mostly about craft and non distilling producers, and that the information shared in this video will have little effect on legacy distilleries. The bottles people are camping out for are all Legacy distillery products.
I TOTALLY DISAGREE about BTAC being overrated I 1000% say WORTHmore then ur ceiling of $60 BUT would say not worth 8X-12X that of secondary ! SOUNDS LIKE Ur a scotch guy '23GTS best since 20172016
Another issue are the liquor store owners trying to charge full secondary prices. A fair market value is reasonable. Charging $600-800 for EHT single barrel is a no go.
All good things must eventually come to an end. Those bottles you enjoy, they will be empty at some point and not replaceable. This is one thing I like about single barrel store picks/private barrels. However good they are, I know that experience will inevitably end and it will be time to move forward with life. Too many people living like the bubble will just keep going higher and higher. They should be ashamed of themselves hoarding bottles and gatekeeping them from other people so they can make a buck. Nobody wants the party to stop and be forced to look at the tab.
the most expensive booze I bought is Baker, Knob Creek 12, Russell Res Single Barrel, maybe $79 including tax. I may buy a 1.5 L for about that price, too. such as Maker Mark, Knob Creek 9, 1792,
There is a lot of good information in this video! I like the thought on the age stated or non age stated for X amount of money. From now on, I am looking for this before I spend.
I've amassed over 100 bottles during COVID times and I've been drinking thru my collection, adding maybe 1 bottle for every 4-5 I've finished. I've got some regret buys I'll likely never go back too.
haha All of you that bought high, will now wish that you had waited. The bust is here. All we have to do is stop buying and we will help the bust go longer!
It takes 40 years for a white oak tree to fully mature or to even begin producing acorns. Compare that to the much much shorter time span for sugarcane. I have already noticed that alot of decent premium sipping rums are $20 cheaper than your average 90-110 proof bourbons. Thats part of the reason I have started to switch to rum. There are alot of rums that can compete with whiskeys in the same flavor notes and aromas. Bourbon is just the at the top of the american liquor industry and now the white oak tree population can no longer keep up with production quotas. We will have plenty of used barrels to use for wines, rums, whisky’s etc. but bourbon will get more pricey because of the lack of availability of new oak trees to cut down.
Collapse? I doubt it. Reduction of price and coming back down to Earth? I think more so. As long as the demand is out there and people are lining up for drops and buying secondary the collapse won't be coming soon. A lot of distilleries like Lux Row are expanding still after all. I don't think the industry is going to collapse i think it come back down to Earth as production has increased to meet demand for a lot of the entry level stuff. Buffalo Trace and Weller SR has become a lot more common now in stores when it used to be incredibly scarce. People have been saying the collapse is coming for a couple years now and it still hasn't and demand for bourbon has only increased. If anything the only thing that can hurt the industry is the increase of interest in other spirits like tequila/mezcal and rum. Something has to affect the public's demand for the whiskey to have any major impact on the industry.
A correction on prices and higher age statements is good for consumers, a total collapse would have far reaching consequences that would be bad for everyone.
I understand your calculations, Randy and Lindsay on what the actual whiskey should sell for, but I really feel what’s lacking is the quality and taste of the whiskey and how that figures into the pricing. as a bourbon enthusiast I base my re-purchase of the same product decision on how the whiskey tastes, not how the price should be calculated. great content in this video thank you.
What other channels do you have where I know you from? As soon as I saw you I checked the communities tab to see because you looked familiar but when you said real estate in Texas in knew I was on to something. It could be whiskey, real estate, guns, cars, I can’t place it but I know I’ve seen you round the tube. Great content ill subscribe wherever I see you
According to the guide at Jack Daniels over 80 percent of their market is out of country sells so that really surprised me I would not have thought that at all.
So, sourcing is buying a barrel of whiskey and then slapping your own label on it and calling it your own. That's why I don't buy whiskey that has been sourced.
Generally speaking yes. Some companies do additional aging in their climate to "make it their own". Some do secondary aging in toasted or used barrels to "make it their own". Pursuit United and Barrel Craft Spirits source from multiple distilleries and make their own blend with it to "make it their own". Some blend some of their in house whiskey with sourced barrels. Some start off sourcing so they have a product to sell while their whiskey is aging, with the plan to transition to only their own make. My brand, The Prideful Goat, is likely the type of brand you hate. We do some additional aging, but for the most part we are bottling any whiskey we like that is close to being ready for the market at cask strength and non-chill filtered, as long as we can be on the lower end of the price range for similar offerings from our competitors. It is important as a consumer to educate yourself about bottles before you spend your money so you know what you are actually buying.
@@BourbonRealTalk I think "hate" may be the wrong word. I just like to know what I'm buying. For example, I bought a bottle of Barrel Seagrass Rye last year but I knew I was getting a rye whiskey sourced from different distilleries and blended together. It was good but I also felt the price point was a little high. The issue for me is not knowing who distilled the whiskey. I've seen some where the label states "distilled by MGP" and some that don't tell you who distilled it.
@@joegibson4946 The labeling laws say you must have a state of distillation, but it does not require you to name the distillery. In some instances the NDP is free to do so if they want to go the extra mile on disclosure, and in some cases they are prohibited from doing so by NDAs. I disclose all I can on my labels, but some of the time the TTB won't let me. For example, I am about to release a 12 year Canadian rye whiskey. 7 years in the original barrel (likely not a first fill barrel since that is uncommon in CA), and 5 years in used American whiskey barrels (TN, TX, and MGP rye). I wanted to state it was Canadian rye whiskey on the front label, so consumers didn't assume it was the MGP rye they are accustomed to us releasing, but they would not let me. They said that there was no definition for Canadian rye in the US standards of identity, so they forced me to put the less descriptive name of Rye Whiskey on the front label, with the disclosure that it was sourced from Canada on the back label. I fear some people may buy it thinking it is American, and be disappointed when they find out it is not, but I had no choice. Luckily it is freaking amazing, so I don't think people will care that much.
Fantastic content as always! In the same way that I love Bourbon Pursuit because of the guests that Kenny convinces to go on the podcast, I love the transparency that BRT brings to the conversation. Every BRT video I watch leaves me less ignorant about whiskey than I was just 5 minutes ago. Tremendous value and feels like a great justification for being a Patreon at any tier level. I have no problem investing in organizations that deliver value as consistently as BRT does! FWIW, I think those NDPs who survive the next "glut" will be those with the most effective marketing campaigns. There are so many options on the shelf that marketing is more important than ever to connect with repeat purchasers, and I think you are 100% right that the export market is MUCH more challenging to penetrate than the domestic market. Only the companies that are already multinational are going to be able to do this well, IMO. I expect some of these big multinationals to acquire many smaller American whiskey makers on the cheap if the downturn in the market applies too much pressure domestically. Slainte!
Kenny and Ryan are in a fantasy world though because of their audience of "aficionados" and inability to see things straight. I hope they didn't over buy as I think they did.
Totally love the skit at the end...some of the channels have gotten way too over the top with their reviews. Thank you for keeping it real!!! Cheers!!! 🥃
I've been getting E.H. Taylor at MSRP for about 2 years now. It's dried up a lil lately but still have 7 bottles left. Eagle Rare the same way. I get Weller 12 sparsley. With the expansion the Buffallo Trace did and not driving their prices through the roof. Once they get 5 years on their rick houses the market will be able to be flooded. Their is bottles sitting on the shelf now that would have been sold the day put out a year ago. Only thing that sells fast is the ones that the secondary market is still jacking up.
There is a difference from the flood of new brands and desirability of hard to find old school high end bottles like GTS, PHC, OF, etc Those limited high quality items will hold better value The flood of regular will dilute “that market” The other item to consider…these are consumables, people are drinking them…so again high end bottles have a different value vs high volume bottles The other factor is the upward pressure from retailers raising prices that creates a higher platform for values…ie Henry McKenna was $28…now it’s $60. They have created a retail price that creates a floor for values much higher than what old school people bought in at So…yes room for a correction… But flight to quality, age, low volume production hold higher value
Another thing that I don't hear anyone talk about is changing consumer tastes. Just 5 years ago, the state stores in PA probably had twice as much scotch and Irish whiskey as they do now, and fewer American whiskeys. Now I'm starting to see Tequila grow, as well as rum. That is only going to hurt the market for all whiskies. I'm not saying that tomorrow the bourbon market is going to crash, but I'd be willing to believe in 10 years, there will be a huge difference in the floorspace given to whiskey in general, and US whiskey in particular.
Cool video. I'll need to watch it again to really understand the market details. Another possibility is people with the ability to hold can sit on their inventory and bring it to market later as longer-aged bourbon. As long as you haven't sold it you haven't taken a loss. FWIW, I know a lot of guys who used to drink Scotch but who have switched to bourbon because Scotch just got too expensive. Interesting data point: My local shop re-arranged things and needed to get rid of shelf space. He discounted a variety of things that weren't selling well. A lot of it was rye.
You are correct. It is the reason why TN whiskey adopted the Lincoln County Process. Now all the big distilleries use a column still and the process likely isn't necessary.
Whiskey Tube caused a whiskey boom, and it's what's gonna cause the boom to bust. Too many people just jumped on the bandwagon without even liking whiskey. They just seen some tik toks where someone else new to the game said they should drink this. After it's all calmed down, they all realized they aren't really whiskey fans except for a shot of jack at the bar.
Im a young buck to the hobby(24) and this information is super informative and super exciting! I got into the hobby debatably at the worst time around a year+ ago. As I was entering I got lucky to get access to “okay” secondary asks, but even then, I remember WFP peaked near me at 400. These days some will let it go for 170-180. Of course BT products are strong, but more and more do I notice bottles are fetching people lunch money over MSRP. On top of that, as a newbie, as more allocated bottles sit on shelves or sell for a hair over MSRP the thought of prices going down is like a ray of sun coming down. I’ve been desensitized to over paying and my skin has been hardened by all the old heads roasting me for paying anything over MSRP of a bottle 10-20 years ago.
Absolutely - this industry overinflated during COVID and we’re about to see a lot of subprime labels go belly up because they are not worth the dollar.
It’s funny…..I literally talked with my brother in law about this exact topic yesterday. Personally I don’t want a recession in the market but some prices for certain bottles (excluding secondary market) are crazy. But just this year I think at least in my state and surrounding states we’ve seen the prices come down a little which is a good sign. Love the video and so happy that someone high in the industry that also has their own brand can give a very insightful look to the logistics from the inside. Thank you
In my control state, I've not seen much change in price but maybe a slight increase in availability. Things my be a little different in non-control states. I don't know.
Edit: I am wrong, but I won't delete it to hide it, that's not how I roll. Good on you sir!!! What I said that is wrong below. Wow, Calling a company a Karen, because they don't want you to use their design without a licensing agreement? If the tables were turned would you be the Karen or the company stealing your design?
Do you know how many tulip shaped glasses are out there without being licensed? They never called it a Glencairn, which is a trademark. Trying to day you own a shape is ridiculous. That's like saying you own the shape triangle because you made a glass that looks like a triangle. So, yes they are being a Karen. A big company like that worried about a few hundred glasses that "look" like yours... seems pretty petty to me. Are they going after tulip shaped wine glasses next?
Most of the people who consume my videos are in on the joke. If you notice at the end of the commercial the spelling of the name Karen is different. Just google Karen whiskey glass and I think you will get it.
Most of the people who consume my videos are in on the joke. If you notice at the end of the commercial the spelling of the name Karen is different. Just google Karen whiskey glass and I think you will get it.
Everybody's saying "collapse," but that word indicates a catastrophic falling apart of the market. I don't think we're headed for a collapse, but if prices do come down I won't complain. But the costs to the producers will have to come down first, or else distillers will go broke. But lemme see what you have to say. 🙂 4:59 The $10 per of age rule of thumb must have a mighty limited application. I don't have a single bottle on where the formula works, and I'm not sure I ever have. Within my budget, at least, the older a whiskey is, the further below the $10/year price it is, and the younger it is, the further above that price it is. Now with more expensive or older bottles (say, above $50 and 10 years) the correlation might be closer. And while I was rattling that off, you changed to $12 (which suppose makes sense). That doesn't alter the preceding paragraph, though. Whether it's $10 per year or $12, I've just never seen a correlation in the prices I pay. 🙂
The barrel market is already collapsing. I have emails form a barrel broker from two years ago where they were asking over $4,000 for a 5 year bourbon barrel. Last week they sent an inventory list that included 6 year barrels for $2,200. As I mentioned in the video, this does not have a direct impact on legacy distillers.
I really enjoy your content. I watch many of your videos over the past couple years. Thanks for representing the consumers and educating through the channel. You’ve kept me sensible when looking for good bourbon!🥃
Interesting take on the topic. I hadn't really thought about the investment groups sitting on tons of inventory. If the Chinese ever develop a taste for whiskey instead of Baijiu, we whiskey fans are screwed. The legacy distilleries will fixate on the huge new market and shift a ton of product there. Prices in the US will increase and availability will drop substantially.
If this ever happens, it might be good for baijiu fans like me. High end baijiu has become extremely expensive in recent years. An oversupply in China would cause prices to drop, and maybe more of it would get exported.
I have not watched this whole video yet, but hopefully they talk about the white oak forestry. We all know the criteria for making bourbon and the forestry cannot keep up with thousands of newly cut barrels a year anymore. I have read that we have enough white oak trees to sustain the industry for about 30 more years and thats it. After that, we will have to wait another 40+ years for the new trees planted to mature. Just something to think about. Thats why Makers Mark and a few other distilleries are starting thier own forestry projects. They want to source thier own barrels so that they have a sustainable supply when the rest of the country runs out of it.
One other factor is the collection we already have at home. A lot of us are working through what we have before we buy any more. Too many whiskeytubers telling us the “must have” bottles that are okay and just sit on my shelf untouched.
Not to mention certain people pushing the buy it and back it up recommendation.
@jeromeschmidt7805, this is my exact situation! Bought way more than I should have, and now I get to just sit back and discover what I really enjoy or what is only enjoyable with friends/family. I hope the bubble bursts on the whiskey market. When it does, maybe I will have worked through my collection and be ready to jump back in.
My current strategy is to keep a running inventory of 25 full bottles and drink about two bottles per month.
I had 44 bottles at my highest. I felt overwhelmed. I know people who have more and I can’t imagine how that feels. My strategy to drink it down was finish 2, replace with one, until I got down to 10 bottles. Interestingly enough, now I only have 3 bottles. And I replace 1 for 1 now. I’m much happier.
Yup, a couple years ago I said I'd draw the line at 100 ...and have since FAR exceeded that 😅 Now I can just sit back and drink and share what I have, maybe pick up an occasional bottle that seems interesting or on the hot list.
In December, Single barrel,barrel proof JD was $99. This week it was $69
When Jack 10 and 12 become readily available at MSRP, then we know it's real. They're still sitting there in most of the nation if you can find them for 3x MSRP.
Your comment about selling excess in the foreign market (eg. abroad) is valid BUT (and it is a big 'but') here in the UK we have a starved market with just a few 'heritage' distillers plying their wares over here (Wild Turkey, Buffalo Trace, Jim Beam, Four Roses & Jack Daniels being the main five), if other bottles appeared on the market there would definitely be a 'splurge' of sales for them at first and hopefully that would equate to repeat sales. As an example, we only get Benchmark #8 over here from the whole Benchmark series, no full proof, no top floor, etc. so they would definitely appeal to the Bourbon market here in the UK for two reasons, one - we don't see them on the shelves and two - the price (Budget Benchmarks would be so appealing to a lot of Bourbon drinkers as cheap daily sippers), then there's the 'mid priced' market Bourbons that would appeal to the discerning drinkers too. As I said we have a starved market here for choice in the UK and I for one would be interested in seeing far more Bourbons on the shelf, more choice just means you actually buy more (which I've learnt from watching the US Bourbon market grow over the last ten years or so), so it's a win for the seller and it's a win for the buyer, so I'm looking forward to seeing far more Bourbon for sale here in the UK in the not too distant future !
If you look at Jack Daniels they released their bonded, bonded rye & bonded triple mash in 700ml bottles which is the standard UK compliant spirit bottle size (rather than the 750ml US standard bottle size), so that tells me that JD are already gearing up for the foreign market rather than the domestic US market and prioritising the foreign first (hence the 70cl bottle size in the US). So if one legacy distiller is already thinking of this then there's no reason to assume that the other major players are not doing the same thing too !
Okay we have a starved market but we do have some great prices, I can go into anyone of the big five supermarkets and buy Buffalo Trace for £20 ($25), Eagle Rare for £30 ($38), Bulleit for £22 ($28) and Bulleit 10yr for £34 ($43) which when you consider they are always in stock and the price includes all taxes is not a bad price ! I just wish that we had more choices (eg. the 12yr Bulleit rye, Old Grandad, Benchmarks, ECBP, etc., etc.).
I understand what you are saying but I for one would be happy to be 'flooded' by excess American Bourbon on my own domestic UK market, so very, very, very happy indeed !
I think this applies to the entire European market
This is true, but the economics of craft distilleries do not really allow them to go to foreign markets. As an example, when we sent bottles of The Prideful Goat to Canada they needed to be priced at $120 vs our normal $75 price. The price would be vent higher for the European market. Importers don't want to risk bringing in bottles of something craft at a price of $125 per bottle when there are so many higher age stated scotches available. So it is true that the legacy distilleries can kill it in foreign markets, it isn't much of an opportunity for high cost craft producers.
Thank you for the valuable/educational information. I appreciate you putting these pod casts together. I have started sharing my limited collection with others and have gained several new friends.
Our pleasure. We love seeing the community get together and hearing your stories. Keep it up!
Sounds like Knob Creek is still great value.
Yes it is. I love the 120 proof. Virtually barrel proof. KC will ALWAYS be an awesome value. Tastes phenomenal to me.
I really appreciate your content and your insights. One thing I notice when I listen to the podcast version is that your mic audio is set a fair bit lower than your intro song so I crank the volume on you and then the intro song comes on and I almost jump out of my seat. :). Not a deal breaker but if you can equalize your audio somehow that would be super. Cheers and keep up the great content.
I will work on this
Too many crappy craft makers in the game, and too many taters making stuff with MGP. Those bottles on the table are prime examples.
Thank you for your video, I always appreciate the insight and helpful opinions of others on my bourbon journey 🥃
Our pleasure. Thanks for watching! How long have you been interested in bourbon?
@@BourbonRealTalk a little over a year. By no means an expert! I have been on a barrel pick recently, I didn't realize the importance of it, I thought everyone got to do that! 🤣
I think another sign of this is age statements being on more and more bourbons because there is just more old stock around.
The writing is on the wall, with Barrel Craft selling off barrels and putting up their 5 million dollar bottle plant for sale should make others weary
The bottling plant is not for sale anymore and there's no evidence they ever sold it or the Rickhouse they had recently purchased. More than likely the website was never updated after Barrel Craft bought the property. It's been 2 months since those rumors were circulating and nothing has come of it. We would have heard by now if they were in serious trouble.
@@Boo_Yeahdisagree just because your not hearing anything about this doesn't mean things are peachy at barrell. They sold a ton of barrels cheap to many NDP companies to try and stay afloat. And losing money on barrels is not a good business plan. Just saying. Is there a heavy hitter investor coming to the rescue? In this market I would have to say no. Whiskey markets are risky at best and the fact that most distillers are so secretive about who they distribute to makes it really hard for most to even understand how this all works. Time will tell but I don't have high hopes for some NDP in the coming years.
I guess everyone's piggybacking off the coming real estate collapse UA-cam genre.
I am a Realtor and I do not think there is a coming real estate collapse. I sell houses and I shop for barrels, and the market indicators for those markets are very very different.
As a note on the retail/consumer side, just this morning I was doing the rounds and talked to a manager at one of the larger stores here in Connecticut near me. He mentioned he got "extra allocation" drops recently after being told initially the 2 or 3 bottles they first received was all they could give them. A month later, he got more of those products (Blood Oaths, Redbreast LEs etc) and the rep told him that smaller stores are TURNING DOWN ALLOCATION! No space on the shelf and they are having a hard time taking on more pricey inventory and are starting to say no. It's a clear domino effect from consumer to retailer to producer. And they are starting to tumble.
Many of these smaller stores would move more allocated product if their prices weren’t outlandish. I call it the tertiary market.
@@rstrunk85 true, some stores get a Weller Special Reserve and price it like a BTAC 😂
But there is the volume game that they have a difficult time with also. They don't qualify for a full case and the discount that comes with it. Also distributors can't bank on telling a small store that they will definitely get another allotment in a month or two. That product scarcity for the store also drives up the price (not to mention the bottles sell, eventually, at the markup. So they continue their pricing.)
I think what I am seeing is these lesser known high dollar bottles are coming in yet the store still has "special editions" from two or three years ago still sitting on their shelf without much buyer interest why would a store manager fork over more capital towards slow moving products? Perhaps with a glut of products on the shelves srp prices eventually come down overall but that will take a lot of time to happen.
Booze has always gone in cycles. I've been drinking both wine and spirits since the 1990s, so I've seen a few booze fads come and go. In the wine industry, there have been periodic "wine lakes" as a massive oversupply hits the market. Wine is in this situation currently. France has paid growers to remove vines, and lower grade wine has been distilled into industrial alcohol and hand sanitizer. Maybe there is a "bourbon lake" sitting out there. When this happens, the lower quality products lose essentially all of their value because demand collapses at that end of the market. Higher end products with strong brand recognition always get through it just fine. Even with a wine lake sitting out there, first growth Bordeaux will continue to sell for exorbitant prices. Even with a bourbon lake sitting out there, taters will still drool over Pappy and BTAC.
I will not be surprised if a significant market correction is coming. Many people have observed a softening in the secondary market. I've seen some mid-level allocated products (such as Henry McKenna 10-year) return to shelves and become readily available. I have a rule regarding allocated bourbon - I don't hunt it, I won't wait in a line for it, and I will pay what I think it is worth (which can be more than MSRP if I think MSRP is too low, but not the prices that museums have been charging in recent years) if I stumble onto it. I've been stumbling onto mid-level allocated bourbon lately, and Buffalo Trace products are materializing in my collection even though I'm not putting in any effort or extra money to get them - most recently a bottle of Rock Hill Farms for $63. Additionally, the situation presented in this video adds to the evidence of a coming correction. People have observed Barrell pulling back and selling stuff off. I hope they make it through this, even if they have to contract their business, as I love their products. Smaller NDPs that don't have a distinctive product or brand identity might be in trouble. The proliferation of craft distilleries can't go on forever; those that don't make the cut on quality and those that have too much debt could be in for some hard times, and not all will make it. Those that have a reasonably diverse product line, including products like gin that can be sold immediately after production, might have a better chance. The craft distilleries that are getting into agave spirits and rum might be the smart ones; agave spirits are booming, and rum is showing signs of life and could be the next big thing in barrel aged spirits.
Bourbon is showing signs of getting tired. Maybe history is repeating itself. By the 1960s, it had become an uncool dad drink, and to the young hipsters, it was hopelessly square. It's starting to feel that way again; bourbon's primary demographic is middle aged and older men (and I suppose the occasional old hag like me). Also, a lot of people (myself included) are sick and tired of the frenzied scramble for allocated bottles. Young people (who are the potential future market) seem to prefer weed over booze, and those who are drinking spirits are drawn to agave spirits. Out of the specialty bars I visit, wine bars have the oldest crowd, and I think wine is in serious long term trouble if the industry doesn't work hard to attract a younger demographic. It's the preferred drink of old crones like me, and we might be even more uncool than the old men who swill bourbon. Whisky bars are more mixed, but there are a lot of gray heads in those bars too. Tequila and mezcal bars, on the other hand, are full of youthful energy. These places make me feel old, but I enjoy tequila and mezcal, so I visit them anyway. Fancy cocktail bars get some younger people too, and I've seen them order whisky-based cocktails; maybe this is a bright spot for the future of whisky.
To add to your take, Henry McKenna has been pretty hard to find in my area for a while. Last week, my local Costco displayed a full pallet that was stacked about 5-6 feet high with Henry McKenna. McKenna is probably one of the easier “harder” bottles to find but I’ve never seen a full pallet on the floor of a big box store before this.
I read this and think you are spot on.
Really appreciate your sentiment and love your attitude towards bourbon chasing. I think you’re right in many facets. I especially agree that rum and/or agave spirits are going to be the next “cool” thing when it comes to aged spirits. As someone who fairly recently found an appreciation for bourbon, I personally have started branching out and trying new sipping rums as the novelty of bourbon has worn off quickly after the realization that the allocated products are not much better than most of my bottom/mid shelf go-tos. Cheers man!
There was a comment further up that said that there is no real evidence of barrell craft selling off their bottling plant and rickhouse. They never sold, and it may have just been that the listings were never updated after barrell craft aquired them. Barrell doesnt seem to be slowing down, and they actually just branched out over seas. I dont think they would have expanded their sales overseas if they were slowing down and selling off major properties they just aquired. He may be right and the listings just never got updated after barrell bought them
@@jacksmith2315 Not what I have heard the rumors are true and unfortunately they may be the first big domino to fall. They almost exclusively occupy the segment of the market he was warning about in the video $12 per year is top dollar and in the long run only sustainable for the legacy distilleries and even then not 10 years from now. The only real bailout for the bourbon market is overseas but that is sustainable either.
The biggest issues these companies are starting to have is they want to sell that bottle at $120, but I am only willing to pay $60 for it
I think it will be more of a leveling out. Bourbon was undervalued for awhile, there was big growth, but companies tried to take advantage. Now you get it starting to level. I can tell by what is available now.
Yeah I think this is far more likely.
demand still exists. the crazies have slowed down buying at the dumb prices
I haven't finished watching the video, but so far 100% agree. One thing you haven't mentioned yet in the video is the uptick in tequila. I can only speak from my experience, but locally have seen 2 tequila-centric bars pop up, and my visits to the liquor store see less people searching the whiskey isles. It's mostly the regular 1.75L Jack guys and the flavored whiskey folks that i see.
Within the past few months I've noticed my state's liquor stores have increased availability of what I consider good/ harder to find bottles. Perhaps in some areas it's different, but for a while it was hard to find bottles like ECBP, Bookers, anything Barrell, Penelope, 4 roses small batch select ( on the shelf for 3 months wtf?), hell last year i had a hard time finding WT101! That had me very worried.
In summary, I sincerely hope everyone who invested money in the whiskey boom comes out on top. However, I will welcome the increase in access to what has been to harder to find bottles and lower prices.
Agree…. Liquor stores that were reasonable are now museums.. and they will feel it. Plus the out put has me worried about the quality…. Like blantons.
Truly appreciate your content. I’ve cut way back on my bourbon drinking but you are one of the few whiskey content creators who I still follow because your content is solid (and your whiskey is fantastic).
The current whiskey market has been due for a shakeout. The manipulation in just about every segment of this industry (esp. investment groups) coupled with the ramp up in production in response to the frenetic demand was bound to come to a head. Looks like that time is coming sooner than later.
My price point is $60.00; no reason to spend more.
So many incredible whiskeys at 60$
@@rayfordpayne5808 there sure is. But theres so many better ones at $80-100
Totally agree. I could even go down to $50 and be happy!
I was just about to say the same. I live in D.C. and can go to places in Maryland and Virginia. Whole area is so greedy on bottles. Bottles just sit in stores forever at ridiculous prices. But someone must be buying just enough for these guys to keep doing it. I stopped going past $65 for anything. Luckily, I have one store here where I can buy the usual for MSRP -- like Old Forrester, Buffalo Trace, etc. But they're the only one.
Same here, I can get knob creek barrel select, old forester 1910 or wild turkey rare breed all under $60 in northern Kentucky and they’re all pretty great pours to me
People may be getting tired of paying exorbitant prices for bourbon. It may be part of the general spirits spirits and wine cycles. Or it could be part of a general recession that is feared.
The strip clubs have already seen a marked decline in clients.
The new car market has contracted over 20%
Anything spending viewed as a splurge or a luxury good maybe in trouble.
ummm...the black market has had impact as well. Bottle Chasing. Regardless, the industry is experiencing what all other niches go through. It is a sign of high demand. There is always a 'check'. It's a bubble, plain and simple.
I appreciate the educational videos in addition to the usual reviews. Nice change of pace.
We love sharing what we learn with you all in the community. Thank you for being here!
Excellent info. We can already see the secondary market falling over the past few months on everything aside from the most in demand product. I'm also seeing the major chain liquor stores in my area discounting multiple bottles from NDPs that aren't selling at their high asking prices. It's only a matter of time now.
Some market correction is to be expected. I love a selection as much as anyone but is there really sustaining demand for hundreds and hundreds of different bourbons? Not likely.
I enjoy your analytics of the industry, a lot. Fascinating industry. Should be a capstone for an MBA program. I feel like we've passed thru the "love affair" with scotch and moved on to bourbon. And I think we'll see the sunset of mass adoration of bourbon and the "new kid in town" will be tequila.
We'll see.
Thanks for sharing.
What kind of psycho moves on from Scotch to bourbon? That's a huge step backwards.
@@darlsbarkley3493So you say
Yeah I’m seeing this at my local honey holes. The usual suspects obviously sell like hotcakes and once in a while a new product will fly but a lot of these smaller brands popping up are just sitting there.
The bourbon version of the Dutch Tulip market is developing.
I got into bourbon and rye a few years ago and wound up with around 30 bottles. I quickly realized that drinking every day is a terrible idea and that the hyped whiskeys are generally not worth it. Haven’t bought a new bottle in over a year.
same except i'm going on closer to two years here. i still have like 40 bottles of really good whiskey to pick from any time i want to pour something. Truthfully, I'm set for years at this pace.
I've bought over 50 cases of $40-$60 MSRP Bourbons (plus a stack of age-stated Rye, and another of a $90 MSRP single cask Rum) on $10-$15/ bottle deep clearance in the last four weeks. It's more a correction than a crash. Bourbon 'should be' a $20-50 product. When you vampire 2x to 5x that for too long, the market provides harsh corrections. The collector market is slowing big time, but the casual consumers that actually drink bottles are buying about the same. I'm finding I have regular customers that are leaning to the clearance and bottom shelf whiskeys more often in the mix than the last couple years. The marginal brands, brands with poor promotion, and overpriced brands are in for a rough haul in the next two years.
I won’t pretend to understand the bourbon market. BUT…. I am a Kentucky resident and the amount of new distilleries and Rick Houses that have popped up in the last 10 years has to affect supply to a point that it could get where supply could out pace demand and start to affect price. Legacy brands have really ramped up as well. With that said, people will always want the products that are extremely hard to get and willing to pay more for it. It would not surprise me if distilleries throttle those products and release them in small waves to make them appear they are harder to get than they really are. We have seen this practice done in many different industries to try in keep demand up to Covid panic buying levels.
You two obviously dont live or shop for bourbon in Florida. There is zero slowing down in the bourbon marketplace. We have several local liquor stores where people camp out overnight just for a chance to get an allocated bottle. And are willing to pay crazy secondary prices.
I suspect you saw the title and commented without watching the video. I specifically state that this video is mostly about craft and non distilling producers, and that the information shared in this video will have little effect on legacy distilleries. The bottles people are camping out for are all Legacy distillery products.
I TOTALLY DISAGREE
about BTAC being overrated
I 1000% say WORTHmore then ur ceiling of $60
BUT would say not worth 8X-12X that of secondary !
SOUNDS LIKE Ur a scotch guy
'23GTS best since 20172016
Another issue are the liquor store owners trying to charge full secondary prices. A fair market value is reasonable. Charging $600-800 for EHT single barrel is a no go.
All good things must eventually come to an end. Those bottles you enjoy, they will be empty at some point and not replaceable. This is one thing I like about single barrel store picks/private barrels. However good they are, I know that experience will inevitably end and it will be time to move forward with life. Too many people living like the bubble will just keep going higher and higher. They should be ashamed of themselves hoarding bottles and gatekeeping them from other people so they can make a buck. Nobody wants the party to stop and be forced to look at the tab.
As long as people keep paying $150-$300 for bottles, companies will keep making them.
the most expensive booze I bought is Baker, Knob Creek 12, Russell Res Single Barrel, maybe $79 including tax. I may buy a 1.5 L for about that price, too. such as Maker Mark, Knob Creek 9, 1792,
There is a lot of good information in this video! I like the thought on the age stated or non age stated for X amount of money. From now on, I am looking for this before I spend.
I've amassed over 100 bottles during COVID times and I've been drinking thru my collection, adding maybe 1 bottle for every 4-5 I've finished. I've got some regret buys I'll likely never go back too.
This was a Finance 301 course! Great overview of different businesses models in the space and your take on the market!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Great topic. Cheers to another bourbon dark age
Thanks for watching!
The large retailers are loaded up with cases of sub par brands, cases stacked up on the floor and shelves gathering DUST 🤔
Karen clip is really funny! 🤣😂🤣😂
Glad you like it! :)
Great analysis! While I am a big craft whiskey fan and do not wish for any of them to fail, I can’t lie…I would love to see prices come down!
haha All of you that bought high, will now wish that you had waited. The bust is here. All we have to do is stop buying and we will help the bust go longer!
Your desire to find cheaper whiskey has the unfortunate consequence of ruining peoples lives, so don't root too hard for the pain.
It takes 40 years for a white oak tree to fully mature or to even begin producing acorns. Compare that to the much much shorter time span for sugarcane. I have already noticed that alot of decent premium sipping rums are $20 cheaper than your average 90-110 proof bourbons. Thats part of the reason I have started to switch to rum. There are alot of rums that can compete with whiskeys in the same flavor notes and aromas. Bourbon is just the at the top of the american liquor industry and now the white oak tree population can no longer keep up with production quotas. We will have plenty of used barrels to use for wines, rums, whisky’s etc. but bourbon will get more pricey because of the lack of availability of new oak trees to cut down.
I learned how the bourbon business works. Subscribed.👍
Welcome! Thanks for being here!
Makers Mark has been dropping for the last year.
Collapse? I doubt it. Reduction of price and coming back down to Earth? I think more so. As long as the demand is out there and people are lining up for drops and buying secondary the collapse won't be coming soon. A lot of distilleries like Lux Row are expanding still after all. I don't think the industry is going to collapse i think it come back down to Earth as production has increased to meet demand for a lot of the entry level stuff. Buffalo Trace and Weller SR has become a lot more common now in stores when it used to be incredibly scarce. People have been saying the collapse is coming for a couple years now and it still hasn't and demand for bourbon has only increased. If anything the only thing that can hurt the industry is the increase of interest in other spirits like tequila/mezcal and rum. Something has to affect the public's demand for the whiskey to have any major impact on the industry.
There will be a collapse in the barrel market. Legacy distilleries will likely experience very little disruption.
This is bad news for the autobody industry.
Sooo…cheaper aged whiskey right? That’s a good thing for consumers yes?
A correction on prices and higher age statements is good for consumers, a total collapse would have far reaching consequences that would be bad for everyone.
What if they open up the chinese market....or the Asian countries as they are not really into whiskeys currently
We talk about that in the video.
Happy National Bourbon Day!
Back atcha!
Oh financial speculators are asking you for advice? Ok
What are you going on about?
Where does the 460 come from, bottles per barrel? Thank you
The equation assumes 180 bottles per barrel (which could be way off). It is $460 per year of age that results in $12 cost at retail per bottle.
I understand your calculations, Randy and Lindsay on what the actual whiskey should sell for, but I really feel what’s lacking is the quality and taste of the whiskey and how that figures into the pricing. as a bourbon enthusiast I base my re-purchase of the same product decision on how the whiskey tastes, not how the price should be calculated. great content in this video thank you.
I feel that way about Rosewood Rye
Definitely good insight on the possible leveling of the market.
Thanks for watching!
What other channels do you have where I know you from? As soon as I saw you I checked the communities tab to see because you looked familiar but when you said real estate in Texas in knew I was on to something. It could be whiskey, real estate, guns, cars, I can’t place it but I know I’ve seen you round the tube. Great content ill subscribe wherever I see you
Great topic, thanks for your insight. On the retail side, seeing a lot of previously hard to find bottles now sitting on the shelf. The glut is on!
Oh Well. I needed to quit drinkin anyway.
$100 per bottle is nuts
Good bye blue run. Good bye nulu.
Way to go with the transparency and honesty, especially for someone with stake in the game. Best of luck to you!! 💪💪👊👊
Thank you!
According to the guide at Jack Daniels over 80 percent of their market is out of country sells so that really surprised me I would not have thought that at all.
Old #7 is a staple around the world for whiskey. I'm not sure it's even close to the same way for other distillers like JD
Very Interesting info. I appreciate it! Hope to try The Prideful Goat!
Let us know what you think when you do!
So, sourcing is buying a barrel of whiskey and then slapping your own label on it and calling it your own. That's why I don't buy whiskey that has been sourced.
Generally speaking yes. Some companies do additional aging in their climate to "make it their own". Some do secondary aging in toasted or used barrels to "make it their own". Pursuit United and Barrel Craft Spirits source from multiple distilleries and make their own blend with it to "make it their own". Some blend some of their in house whiskey with sourced barrels. Some start off sourcing so they have a product to sell while their whiskey is aging, with the plan to transition to only their own make. My brand, The Prideful Goat, is likely the type of brand you hate. We do some additional aging, but for the most part we are bottling any whiskey we like that is close to being ready for the market at cask strength and non-chill filtered, as long as we can be on the lower end of the price range for similar offerings from our competitors. It is important as a consumer to educate yourself about bottles before you spend your money so you know what you are actually buying.
@@BourbonRealTalk I think "hate" may be the wrong word. I just like to know what I'm buying. For example, I bought a bottle of Barrel Seagrass Rye last year but I knew I was getting a rye whiskey sourced from different distilleries and blended together. It was good but I also felt the price point was a little high.
The issue for me is not knowing who distilled the whiskey. I've seen some where the label states "distilled by MGP" and some that don't tell you who distilled it.
@@joegibson4946 The labeling laws say you must have a state of distillation, but it does not require you to name the distillery. In some instances the NDP is free to do so if they want to go the extra mile on disclosure, and in some cases they are prohibited from doing so by NDAs. I disclose all I can on my labels, but some of the time the TTB won't let me. For example, I am about to release a 12 year Canadian rye whiskey. 7 years in the original barrel (likely not a first fill barrel since that is uncommon in CA), and 5 years in used American whiskey barrels (TN, TX, and MGP rye). I wanted to state it was Canadian rye whiskey on the front label, so consumers didn't assume it was the MGP rye they are accustomed to us releasing, but they would not let me. They said that there was no definition for Canadian rye in the US standards of identity, so they forced me to put the less descriptive name of Rye Whiskey on the front label, with the disclosure that it was sourced from Canada on the back label. I fear some people may buy it thinking it is American, and be disappointed when they find out it is not, but I had no choice. Luckily it is freaking amazing, so I don't think people will care that much.
For the regular Joe’s out there , money does matter .. most of us can’t afford the good stuff.
It’s sad that it comes down to this…
Fantastic content as always! In the same way that I love Bourbon Pursuit because of the guests that Kenny convinces to go on the podcast, I love the transparency that BRT brings to the conversation. Every BRT video I watch leaves me less ignorant about whiskey than I was just 5 minutes ago. Tremendous value and feels like a great justification for being a Patreon at any tier level. I have no problem investing in organizations that deliver value as consistently as BRT does!
FWIW, I think those NDPs who survive the next "glut" will be those with the most effective marketing campaigns. There are so many options on the shelf that marketing is more important than ever to connect with repeat purchasers, and I think you are 100% right that the export market is MUCH more challenging to penetrate than the domestic market. Only the companies that are already multinational are going to be able to do this well, IMO. I expect some of these big multinationals to acquire many smaller American whiskey makers on the cheap if the downturn in the market applies too much pressure domestically. Slainte!
Kenny and Ryan are in a fantasy world though because of their audience of "aficionados" and inability to see things straight. I hope they didn't over buy as I think they did.
Totally love the skit at the end...some of the channels have gotten way too over the top with their reviews. Thank you for keeping it real!!! Cheers!!! 🥃
Thanks so much!
I've been getting E.H. Taylor at MSRP for about 2 years now. It's dried up a lil lately but still have 7 bottles left. Eagle Rare the same way. I get Weller 12 sparsley. With the expansion the Buffallo Trace did and not driving their prices through the roof. Once they get 5 years on their rick houses the market will be able to be flooded.
Their is bottles sitting on the shelf now that would have been sold the day put out a year ago. Only thing that sells fast is the ones that the secondary market is still jacking up.
There is a difference from the flood of new brands and desirability of hard to find old school high end bottles like GTS, PHC, OF, etc
Those limited high quality items will hold better value
The flood of regular will dilute “that market”
The other item to consider…these are consumables, people are drinking them…so again high end bottles have a different value vs high volume bottles
The other factor is the upward pressure from retailers raising prices that creates a higher platform for values…ie Henry McKenna was $28…now it’s $60. They have created a retail price that creates a floor for values much higher than what old school people bought in at
So…yes room for a correction…
But flight to quality, age, low volume production hold higher value
Another thing that I don't hear anyone talk about is changing consumer tastes. Just 5 years ago, the state stores in PA probably had twice as much scotch and Irish whiskey as they do now, and fewer American whiskeys. Now I'm starting to see Tequila grow, as well as rum. That is only going to hurt the market for all whiskies. I'm not saying that tomorrow the bourbon market is going to crash, but I'd be willing to believe in 10 years, there will be a huge difference in the floorspace given to whiskey in general, and US whiskey in particular.
Cool video. I'll need to watch it again to really understand the market details.
Another possibility is people with the ability to hold can sit on their inventory and bring it to market later as longer-aged bourbon. As long as you haven't sold it you haven't taken a loss.
FWIW, I know a lot of guys who used to drink Scotch but who have switched to bourbon because Scotch just got too expensive.
Interesting data point: My local shop re-arranged things and needed to get rid of shelf space. He discounted a variety of things that weren't selling well. A lot of it was rye.
Kinda true in a way, as non traditional taste of whiskey, but the pot still is really the original way to distill.
You are correct. It is the reason why TN whiskey adopted the Lincoln County Process. Now all the big distilleries use a column still and the process likely isn't necessary.
@@BourbonRealTalk oh ya, so they can continuously distill, total money, time saver
I really liked this one. Great job you two! I knew this would happen eventually
Thank you!
Always appreciate hearing about trends in the market, and this channel is always providing relevant information. Cheers!
Thank you, we appreciate the feedback. Cheers!
Whiskey Tube caused a whiskey boom, and it's what's gonna cause the boom to bust. Too many people just jumped on the bandwagon without even liking whiskey. They just seen some tik toks where someone else new to the game said they should drink this. After it's all calmed down, they all realized they aren't really whiskey fans except for a shot of jack at the bar.
Very interesting subject. Really enjoyed your thoughts.
Appreciate that. Thanks for being here!
Im a young buck to the hobby(24) and this information is super informative and super exciting! I got into the hobby debatably at the worst time around a year+ ago. As I was entering I got lucky to get access to “okay” secondary asks, but even then, I remember WFP peaked near me at 400.
These days some will let it go for 170-180. Of course BT products are strong, but more and more do I notice bottles are fetching people lunch money over MSRP. On top of that, as a newbie, as more allocated bottles sit on shelves or sell for a hair over MSRP the thought of prices going down is like a ray of sun coming down. I’ve been desensitized to over paying and my skin has been hardened by all the old heads roasting me for paying anything over MSRP of a bottle 10-20 years ago.
Interesting commentary from the business perspective.
Thank you!
Absolutely - this industry overinflated during COVID and we’re about to see a lot of subprime labels go belly up because they are not worth the dollar.
GlenKaren...i see what you did there. Kudos 🙌🏽 Trademark your glass... THE GLENKAREN... Or the Karen Glen. You're welcome. 🥃🥃 14:11
I don't want the smoke 🤣
@@BourbonRealTalk If you don't want the smoke maybe just call the glass 'Peaty' like the dog from Little Rascals 😉
It’s funny…..I literally talked with my brother in law about this exact topic yesterday.
Personally I don’t want a recession in the market but some prices for certain bottles (excluding secondary market) are crazy. But just this year I think at least in my state and surrounding states we’ve seen the prices come down a little which is a good sign.
Love the video and so happy that someone high in the industry that also has their own brand can give a very insightful look to the logistics from the inside. Thank you
In my control state, I've not seen much change in price but maybe a slight increase in availability. Things my be a little different in non-control states. I don't know.
Appreciate all you do!
Thanks for being here!
The rush to foreign markets is already happening. BT opening their tasting / bottle room in Europe is a prime example
This looks familiar to when Dickel shut down in the late 90’s
That was crazy.
The barrel market is one thing. The collapse in consoomer demand is another altogether
Edit: I am wrong, but I won't delete it to hide it, that's not how I roll. Good on you sir!!!
What I said that is wrong below.
Wow, Calling a company a Karen, because they don't want you to use their design without a licensing agreement? If the tables were turned would you be the Karen or the company stealing your design?
Thats a fair question and one that should be answered.
Do you know how many tulip shaped glasses are out there without being licensed? They never called it a Glencairn, which is a trademark. Trying to day you own a shape is ridiculous. That's like saying you own the shape triangle because you made a glass that looks like a triangle. So, yes they are being a Karen. A big company like that worried about a few hundred glasses that "look" like yours... seems pretty petty to me. Are they going after tulip shaped wine glasses next?
Lol you really don't get it? Glen 'karen' Glass. 😎
Most of the people who consume my videos are in on the joke. If you notice at the end of the commercial the spelling of the name Karen is different. Just google Karen whiskey glass and I think you will get it.
Most of the people who consume my videos are in on the joke. If you notice at the end of the commercial the spelling of the name Karen is different. Just google Karen whiskey glass and I think you will get it.
Most informative. Thank you for sharing this.
Thanks for watching!
Some market contraction will benefit consumers/drinkers of bourbon.
Everybody's saying "collapse," but that word indicates a catastrophic falling apart of the market. I don't think we're headed for a collapse, but if prices do come down I won't complain. But the costs to the producers will have to come down first, or else distillers will go broke.
But lemme see what you have to say. 🙂
4:59 The $10 per of age rule of thumb must have a mighty limited application. I don't have a single bottle on where the formula works, and I'm not sure I ever have. Within my budget, at least, the older a whiskey is, the further below the $10/year price it is, and the younger it is, the further above that price it is. Now with more expensive or older bottles (say, above $50 and 10 years) the correlation might be closer.
And while I was rattling that off, you changed to $12 (which suppose makes sense). That doesn't alter the preceding paragraph, though. Whether it's $10 per year or $12, I've just never seen a correlation in the prices I pay. 🙂
The barrel market is already collapsing. I have emails form a barrel broker from two years ago where they were asking over $4,000 for a 5 year bourbon barrel. Last week they sent an inventory list that included 6 year barrels for $2,200. As I mentioned in the video, this does not have a direct impact on legacy distillers.
Appreciate the great info as always! Interesting stuff, thanks!
Thanks for watching!
Thank for the information! Great video.
Glad it was helpful!
I try to stick with the big brands but would like to branch out to the smaller craft distillers.
Lot's of good information to digest in one viewing. I'll be watching again. I might bring a pencil & paper to take notes, too.
I really enjoy your content. I watch many of your videos over the past couple years. Thanks for representing the consumers and educating through the channel. You’ve kept me sensible when looking for good bourbon!🥃
Thanks for being here. I'm glad it's been helpful for you!
Interesting take on the topic. I hadn't really thought about the investment groups sitting on tons of inventory. If the Chinese ever develop a taste for whiskey instead of Baijiu, we whiskey fans are screwed. The legacy distilleries will fixate on the huge new market and shift a ton of product there. Prices in the US will increase and availability will drop substantially.
If this ever happens, it might be good for baijiu fans like me. High end baijiu has become extremely expensive in recent years. An oversupply in China would cause prices to drop, and maybe more of it would get exported.
I have not watched this whole video yet, but hopefully they talk about the white oak forestry. We all know the criteria for making bourbon and the forestry cannot keep up with thousands of newly cut barrels a year anymore. I have read that we have enough white oak trees to sustain the industry for about 30 more years and thats it. After that, we will have to wait another 40+ years for the new trees planted to mature. Just something to think about. Thats why Makers Mark and a few other distilleries are starting thier own forestry projects. They want to source thier own barrels so that they have a sustainable supply when the rest of the country runs out of it.
ua-cam.com/video/InQl2lQ-kkA/v-deo.html
Good video
Thanks!