Eight Years Into Matthews' Era, Leafs Need to Change Course
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- Опубліковано 19 вер 2024
- It's time for the annual video on the demise of the Leafs' Cup hopes.
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Changes should've been made after that Montréal series.
Yeah that was an unreal collapse, even by Leafs standards
My idea back then was trade with the Wild for Dumba (a year after his 50 point season) Zucc and their 1st for Marner and Holl. Wild get game-breaking offense and D depth Leafs would have got at the time a top pair right D and essentially what Domi was for them replacing Marner this year and a 1st in the teens or early 20s I can't recall. Plus a couple mil in cap room like $3M I think
@@Junketsuadidas and they have very high standards lol
Nous sommes allés à la coupe cette année là 😎, mais on est tombé sur Tampa en repeat... fuck
Bring in Reeves, lose a pylon.
The answer is clear. Leafs need to bring back Phil Kessel on a one year contract to settle the bad juju and end the curse. Do it now before it is too late.
What about trading Matthews to Pittsburgh?
@@Vladimir_Poutine710 Phil was really great player ... a couple of years ago. It could be a great idea if you propose this way ten years earlier.
The Tavares deal was a curse in disguise. he is simply not worth the cap hit for someone who has at most average 80 points a season. Not bad by any means but certainly not worth 11 million a year.
As a sharks fan, I’m very happy he chose TO over SJ. I think that contract is going to be harder to move than EK65
@@OhYaSurenot really JT basically makes nothing this year as to most his money was in bonuses, with a year left I’m not to sure he would waive it unless they strip him of C
It wasn't even much of a disguise. I never understood the amount of hype that signing generated. Especially for the amount it was worth.
What do you mean disguise?
I was baffled at that signing when it happened. Sure JT is really good, but they already had three elite forwards. Sign JT with big money and now you "had to" sign the trio with big money too. You could have traded Nylander or Marner then instead of just kicking the can along the road to where we are now
Not so secret recipe to win a cup: depth, defense, goaltending
And classic Toronto fashion they got none of those. You could argue Woll to be a good goalie, but he seems to get injured a lot.
@@teapea8184 pretty much
Spot on, a lot of people downplay Cory Crawford's contributions the Hawks cup teams, but look at his stats for those playoffs.
They beat a lot of goalies in the HOF.
nah the most important thing is to sign young players and overpay them to get 8 years out of them, and hoping they will become underpaid as soon as possible as that contract age. Then you have money and can afford the rest.
or you cna put some players on LTIR :D
Yes you are correct.
And Maple Leafs have had some decent goalies. But they can´t afford world beater due to their salary structure. And that structure hurts the defence even more badly.
Lack of depth in offense. I don´t fully agree that is the case. Bertuzzi and Domi can be called sand paper, but both have scored this or previous season 20 goals. Järnkrok scored 20 last season. Knies and Robertson has showed lot of promise. What kind of army of potential 20 goal scorer they need to bring that we will say "now there is depth".
This team is build for offense and it makes nice regularseason stats. It is not made for playoff hockey when goaltending and defense matters. And their offense has been fairly consistently shut down in playoffs.
MacKinnon after elimination (before he got his cup): “I haven’t done S*** in this league.”
Draisaitl after elimination: “It’s cup or bust”
The core four after elimination:
“I think we’re right there” “it’s not the core that’s the problem” basically begging please don’t break us up. It’s not our fault! They don’t have that competitive fire and they’ll never get it done with this group because of it.
They just need a few more million each that’ll help!!!
*Wins one series in like 8 years*
Marner: “We’re basically thought of as gods here.”
It sounds like they lack the drive.
@@brandonflooren5373I’m sure the Leafs front office would hire you with that mentality. Congratulations your about to be Kyle Dubas 2.0.
This is how I define the problem with the Leafs' core forward group (not going to bother with the other issues, many of which we all know). They have great players, but not a great team. These guys can score on their own, but when they have to play as a team, it doesn't click. Regular season, teams don't generally plan for you specifically in their construction or methods, just trying to see what works best for them generally and run it for 6 months. That's how Mathews and Marner can stack up a crapload of points. But when they have to play as a team on the same page in the playoffs, it always falls apart. The fact that teams don't need to "respect" their depth makes it even harder on them. Doesn't have to be all that sexy either, just a couple guys on the bottom six who are good for 15 goals a year, enough that when the top lines are at an impasse, the bottom lines are what determines the final push. Might only determine a couple games in a finals run, but it'll be those games that determine who advances.
Just to take the Hawks during their heyday since they're my team but you can use similar examples for any cup winner. They had Bickell and Bolland in 2013, Saad and Shaw in 2015 (among others like Teravainen and Vermette). Role players for the most part, but everyone knew their names and can name at least one "big goal" they were apart of. When you got that lurking beyond Toews, Kane, Hossa and Sharp--who themselves came in clutch often enough--that's deadly. Leafs aren't deadly, they're an amalgamation of good players who can MAYBE beat you in a best of 7, IF everything goes their way (like Tampa deciding to collapse in 2023 as they did in those games). That's not built for success.
This isn't to say a team can't win while being top heavy. Oilers I see as a similar team, but their players play well as a team. That gets them to the 2nd round regularly and (once) in the 3rd. Oilers live and die by their team philosophy. Leafs don't have a team philosophy though, just a bunch of players that you hope can win on their talents, and in the playoffs they rarely do.
totally agree ~ my sentiments exactly ~ well said ~
Vermette was totally worth that first round pick.
Very well put. That is why my team, the habs, were able to come back and beat them, because while MTL lacks the talent of top heavy teams, they play a hard grinder game in the playoffs. It's also how we beat Boston a few times in the 2000s we had no business winning. Team philosophy, well put.
Maybe the Leafs news new management and a sort of culture change, allowing real passionate fans to buy tickets at lower prices. Make it a fun atmosphere to play there. Look at MTL, it's always a party, that has to come to marketing and PR
Yup. Bolland was a 3rd line center who blew up the Canucks almost by himself in the playoffs.
A lot of it was the versatility of a lot of those core players. Toews, Sharp, Hossa, Saad, those guys were very dependable when not possessing the puck on defense. Kane was the only one that wasn't great on defense, but his takents made up for that. No bottom 6 players in that era on the blackhawks would ever get close to dressing if they didn't defend well, regardless of which one of the 3 cup winning teams from that era you choose from. Toronto on the other hand has a lot of offensively gifted players llsimilar to Patrick Kane, that suck playing defense, and a bunch of depth that isn't dependable offensively or defensively.
The blackhawks also had a top D-man (Duncan Keith) that could play 25-30 minutes a night, and defend really well on the PK need be, while also quarerbacking the PP really well. After Keith, they had a top 4 of really solid, defensively responsible, puck moving defenseman. Toronto's D-core is awful in comparison to most cup winning squads.
Other cup winning teams of the last number of years can be described that way, whether you're talking about Vegas, Colorado, Tampa, or St Louis.
Leafs blaming Andersen has been such an easy cop out. What is it with Toronto and always blaming their goalies? Its not just the fans, its also the media up there. Its insane.
It’s not just Toronto my friend. I’m a Bruins fan and the amount of blame Rask got for not “winning them” the cup in 2013 and 2019 is insane. However, you would never hear any other fans cite Rask as the reason they lost, and rightfully so. It doesn’t matter how elite your goaltender is, they get blamed if the team loses.
Nobody's blaming Woll. In fact it's been Marner who's been getting the blame over the past few seasons for being a pushover. "push where there's mush" and Marner is mush.
As a leafs fan I love Woll and Samsonove(I have no clue how to spell his name) 🤣
Ugh, Andersen defenders. Like you're not allowed to say Andersen is not good in the playoffs. There is nothing wrong with saying, they were never gonna win anything with him and say he wasn't the sole reason.
Refereeing is too often blamed for losses by the Toronto media.
It’s pretty simple I think tbh. Marner and Tavares make too much money and they lack depth. Plus they’re cursed with injuries. Not easy to fix but also not super complicated.
Exactly. What they need to do is get some more depth scoring and fix the blue line, and get someone to back up Woll.
Seems more like they just an overrated group of stars who get out scored bye their “lack of depth” other teams stars make big plays in big moments. Leafs just hear crickets from their stars in those moments.
JT isn't going anywhere, nor does he need to. He signs a team friendly deal and becomes 3C or moves to the wing.
I agree it’s a simple problem, but because those contracts are going to be so miserable to move, it’s going to be really hard to fix.
Cursed with injuries ??? That’s bullshit
Unfortunately Toronto is either gonna have to "lose" a trade to make some moves, or they have to ride out some contracts.
Imo as a non-leaf fan, any trade involving Marner you cannot lose. He only has one year left and you’re not going to renew him anyways. You likely make the playoffs without him (only situation where I see them losing the trade is missing) and you free up all that cap to actually get someone. Problem is, is finding a team he’s okay with going to and can afford him. How many teams have the assets to trade for Marner (not picks, not prospects, win now kinda guys) and Marner is also willing to join. Probably only a handful. Going to be interesting to see where he goes.
@mattmackie9298 reports already say multiple teams are inquiring about Marner and picks and prospects are not the end of the world. Mostly what leafs need is cap space and teams trading for him will only have to pay him $750,000. They will just have to manage the cap space
@@100Thebobchannel NMC complicates things though. He’ll get control over his destination and finding a team that he’s okay with and can afford the cap hit is definitely the biggest obstacle. It’s not about what he’s worth, teams can offer whatever they want but if he says no it’s dead on arrival.
Wow, someone spelled lose the right way.
None of them want to admit they were wrong and made terrible decisions.... things won't change until one more playoff...
Dom’s article in The Athletic was pretty interesting. It makes sense that the risk-averse mindset would contradict the strengths of the team’s identity.
what does that mean?
@@habinations more athletic "only offense matters get more 115 lb players go go go" bullshit 🤣
You know what would be super Leafy? Toronto gets rid of Marner & Taveras, they both do extremely well on other teams, and the Maple Leafs continue to suck in future playoffs because a certain someone who stays behind only cares about his paycheck and his regular season records.
@@habinations select quotes:
“While McDavid and MacKinnon are out there thriving in the playoffs because they assert their tempo, Toronto’s top duo seems to prefer to accept whatever tempo their opponent throws at them instead in the name of responsible defending. It’s the distinction between focusing on your own arsenal rather than obsessing over what’s on the other side of the fence. While the percentages may be similar, the actual differences are, well, the difference.”
“Instead, they made sacrifices at the altar of “defense wins championships” - an unworthy mantra for a pair of players with otherworldly offensive ability.
Safe is death, and in this case, it’s the death of what should be elite offense. Some of the negative offensive change is a result of continuously struggling on the power play, too, but even that feels like a result of taking fewer risks and being far too predictable.”
“This change in playing style feels like the smoking gun of everything wrong with the last decade of Leafs hockey. You can take Mike Babcock away from the Leafs, but everything the team has done since feels to have been in servitude of the Babcockian way where a 1-0 win playing The Right Way somehow feels better than a 6-3 win with a couple of defensive breakdowns.”
@@GoodMenstruationAttitude Pretty sure just about every cup winner in the last 10 or so years had at least 2 "go-to" defensemen who could either help the offense or stop the puck when you need them to. Leafs got Reilly and... who? Yeah this year it wasn't really defense that did them in but generally great teams have key scoring generated from their blue line as well (even if only as a secondary assist, or making a key pick off that creates an odd man rush).
You're right that the team has to change course but unfortunately, they have proven to be one of, if not the, most unwilling and unable to change teams in the league and maybe even in all of sports.
Sid Seixeiro is not a person who I usually respect enough to quote but his rant on BT the other morning was spot on! There is a certain culture in Toronto where sports figures are almost deified and as a result, get quite comfortable and lack any real drive to do the dirty work to succeed.
There is a distinct lack of accountability for management across all of Toronto's teams with few if any consequences for failure. Most observers will say that both the Blue Jays and the Raptors should have had much more success over the years than they've had, and they would have if ownership cared enough to make management answer for their lack of results.
There's one more thing I'll say; if fans are going to continue to drop dump truck loads of cash at the doors of Toronto sports teams and not demand better for their investment, they WON'T get it! Harold Ballard even said so himself in the old days - "People will buy tickets no matter what so why should I care how poor the team is?"
I have a real sinking feeling that the only change will be Keefe getting fired.
I hope Im wrong, I really do, but if Shanahan wouldnt change it last year, why would he change it now? I just have zero confidence in that, however I would do anything to be wrong. Marner just doesnt have "it".
Nope. That's exactly what will happen. I don't think they have much choice though. Dubas gave out way too many bad contracts
@@people3865 Unless Shanahan is let go as well, nothing will change. The soft core players will just go cry to Brenden that the new coach is mean to them & he will stop it & force the coach to backtrack just like he did numerous times to Keefe.
@@gregorybiestek3431 I agree, but Shannt won't go. He makes to many good moves off ice.
And people wonder why it didn't work. Right now without trades, they have 18M left next year with basically needing to sign a full 2nd line, top 2 defenseman, 2 top 4 defensemen and a goalie. Good luck if you don't get rid of at least one of the "core four".
@@teapea8184 Instead of trades, the gutsy move that would provide instant results is just buy-out Marner & Taveras, get $11 immediately, and go shopping for decent players. Yes Toronto would struggle to win in the regular season, maybe get the 2nd wildcard, but they could be built to actually win in the playoffs. Unfortunately Leaf fans would NEVER stand for anything like that. They want lots of winning all the time in the regular season plus playoffs. They are delusional.
This is from a reddit post i made the other day: "I love reading people state which "core 4" they'd get rid of. No one can admit that financial structure of this team is broken, and all 4 of them are to blame. None of them deserve a much as they're making.
The "core 4" don't possess "core foundational characteristics" that make up a winning culture, including leadership and hard work. When it came down to brass tax, 2 of the core sat out for a collective 6/7 games in the 1st round. When all 4 were on the ice, a total of 1 goal was scored. So while everybody showed up, that's all they did - they showed up.
With 40-50% of their salary cap going to these 4 players, their inability to either individually produce at a higher rate or to lead the players around them to generate higher production is financially inexcusable.
Throw on Morgan Reilly and it's basically a core 5. Let me just say that he makes nearly as much as Victor Hedman 🙉🤣 the two are not even comparable"
*tacks
It’s poor roster construction for the Leafs and it’s been kinda a running joke here in St. Louis that hiring a coach like Berube is going to solve any of their problems. Berube was a highly effective coach with the defensive juggernaut of a team he had in 2019 and 2020 in St. Louis and he struggled with the Blues when they weren’t a defensive juggernaut from 2021 till when he was fired. Point being the Leafs are nowhere close to the complete monster of a roster that the Blues had during their cup window or even when they were still competitive in Berube’s final years. That’s why we find it so funny that the Leafs organization and their fans believe that with half a team that the Leafs will be able to replicate the Blues success with Berube now their coach. It will be another rude awakening when nothing changes for the Leafs and having a good coach means nothing if there isn’t enough talent up and down the roster for said coach to work with.
Brendan shanahan next
the best reason i'd fire Shanahan is for willing to re-hire Dubas last year and firing him after a press conference he didn't like.
@@chrisbelos2834 No $hite, that was bad optics for Shanahan.
Please.
A new THG video always makes me happy 👍Thank you Shannon!
The obvious issues are the dollars locked into the core four… but what do you do? Tavares is untradeable at that cap hit and that contract solves itself at the end of next season. Matthews and Willy are signed long term and no one in TO wants to see them gone…
So everyone is pointing at Marner… who has a NMC. The Leafs will have no leverage in any deal… are Leafs fans ready to see him leave for a major downgrade?
I’m calling it, if Marner goes the leafs go half way the way the Flames went post Goudreau/Tkachuk departure…
You know what would be super Leafy? Toronto gets rid of Marner & Taveras, they both do extremely well on other teams, and the Maple Leafs continue to suck in future playoffs because a certain someone who stays behind only cares about his paycheck and his regular season records. The Leafs only win when that someone decides he wants to play with grit.
That’s the thing, just by complete circumstance, their marginally best playoff performer is the only one contract and performance wise that is moveable. It’s a shit sandwich either way you look at it and Toronto is going to have to make a painful decision soon or later. Even if they clean out upper management, the new brain trust will have to deal with the same ailment.
@@gregorybiestek3431no
best hockey content on yt, thanks man
Most knowledge
I’m telling everyone I know that you are one of the best hockey channel out there. Thabk you for all the hard work. Great video!
The fact that Matthews and McDavid haven't won a cup yet just goes to show that you need a well balanced team and a 60 goal scorer does not guarantee success.
Absolutely. And they haven't really been close either. Toronto has won 1 playoff series with this group. Edmonton, despite getting to the conference finals 2 years ago, was still 8 wins away from a cup (since they were swept by Colorado). Like you said - well balanced & depth seems to be the keys to success.
Shannon we need a mock draft!!!
Way too early for that. There are deals yet to be made. He does it right before the real thing.
He basically does it when doing the prospect videos, he wears jersey of the team he thinks might draft the player.
Glad you're finally catching on.... been saying this for a long time now, and people kept saying give it more time.
Just need more time. Maybe coach number 28 will help?
Don't give up. It will work. Trust the process. Give it just more time.
@@aapoheikkila5542 I'll stick to football for the next two years 😊
You got people still saying give them more time. They haven't had a proper coach yet. Some people are deluded into thinking that Marner is not a problem in the playoffs. They think him having 50 points in 57 games is good. And really, for a guy making $10.93M, that's below average. He should be well over a point a game. McDavid has 96 points in 60 playoff games. Leon Draisaitl has 100 points in 60 playoff games. MacKinnon has 48 goals and 114 points in 88 playoff games.
Marner is getting paid like they are, even more than Draisaitl, and he's hasn't come close to producing at the rate those 3 are. But "you can't trade a talent as good as Marner because you'll never be able to replace what he does."
Well played, sir .. well played
I can imagine Marner getting traded and then scoring a series clinching goal against the Leafs next year.
That won't happen, because he would (almost certainly) be moving to the western conference (if anybody is stupid enough to take him).
More importantly it would never happen with the Leafs making the finals.
How could anyone imagine Marner scoring a clinching goal 😂😂😂
marner is going to get traded to a bottom feeding team
he wont be in the playoffs next year if he's traded
I could see the Capitals trading for Marner and making the playoffs as a wild card and knocking out Toronto in the first round next season.
As a Capitals fan, I'd be happy to trade Jensen or Van Riemsdyk (but not Fehervary or Sandin) for Marner.
They NEED a 1A goalie and a 1A defenseman
I’m a Bruins fan and even I’m like jeez their fans deserve better
Haha we have better, it's called your favorite NFL team 😅
Hit the nail right on the head with this one
Wow, when THG lays enumerates the feeble streaks (eg. not finishing first in the league since 1963), it really hits home.
Been saying it since they signed Tavares. Can't spend that much money on 4 forwards and win a cup. Haven't even won more than a single round. Proofs in the puddin
Lmao thats like saying you can't win a cup with mcdavid since he hasn't done it yet. What asinine logic.
@CD-tk2oc Edmonton has won 7 rounds with McDavid, appearing in a conference final and stanley cup final that went to 7 games. With better cap management they probably would have had more success. To be fair they did pay a d-man 10.4 who isn't living up to his salary so just spending money on different positions isn't the be all end all. The players you spend big on have to deliver results but generally it's really hard to win without good cap management. Toronto isn't currently comparable to Edmonton at all. 1 single round is absolutely abysmal. Once Johnny T is gone and with the cap going up, they can spend some money on goaltending and defence so maybe they will have a real shot if they get players who can deliver when it counts.
I think Marner and Tavares made more than their worth in past seasons. It cost the team the chance to sign a better goalie and improve their blueline. There's more to it of course but those are my main points.
Trade ghost Matthews then you can actually thrive as a team... Sure he's good in the regular season but he is a complete ghost when it comes to the playoffs
Also, by comparison: McDavid has played 55 games in the playoffs, has 88 points. So while none of the core 4 is at a point-per-game, McDavid is over an assist per game while also having scored 30 goals.
McDavid (along with other playoff teams’ top players who have went deep) has tenacity and balls though. He’s willing to chip and chase if needed…playoff type hockey where often times it hurts and it’s hard. Core 4 (especially Marner) refuse to play that way. Call it tough, call it tenacity, call it testosterone, whatever….Nylander is closest, but those core 4 guys, especially Marner, won’t do it. He thinks he can dance around the neutral zone with time and space to backhand toe drag drop pass or whatever like it’s February in San Jose. Instead of gaining the red line and chipping it in and go to work. I’ve actually seen Mathews turn aside to get out of the way of a shot against, instead of sacrificing himself for his team. It was the epitome of the core 4’s entitled, celebrity, fashion magazine culture.
McDavid has now played 3 more playoff games than Marner. He has 96 points in 60 games. Leon Draisaitl has also played 60 playoff games, and he has 100 points. Marner has 50 points in 57 games. So all these people talking about how he produces in the playoffs have the wool pulled over their eyes. He's making $10.93M and he's not even a point a game player in the playoffs.
Thank you. I'm beyond impressed with your knowledge and insights. You didn't sell out. The world needs more like you.
It’s wild that 6 years later the results are still the same. I’m an Avs fan so I’m indifferent to the Leafs success, but it’s super interesting to watch the entire process. In my opinion, they need to get rid of one of the core 4 contracts and spend that money on only defenseman as that seems to consistently be their weak spot. Will be interesting to see what other moves they make this offseason.
that's what many of us have thought for quite a while....
Though it should also be mentioned that Freddy was the closest thing we've had to a consistent goalie in this era
A future Mitch Marner assist on a Matvei Michkov goal sounds fun to me.
The problem with toronto is Shanahan the minute dubas hinted at breaking up the core 4 Shanahan fired him.
Thanks for how detailed you are Shannon!
Though Marner and Tavares cap hits are too high. On July 1st they both get large bonuses paid that are about 90% of their salary for next season. So as of July 1st the actual cash for their salary is less than a million. They will likely have to eat cap to trade to a contender who is at the cap, but any budget teams will likely see it as a bonus since they will be able to get to floor without spending the actual money. They both likely would not go to that type of team so the Leafs will eat some cap if they are traded but I severely doubt there will need to be sweeteners because both are still very good and in Marners case elite talents who can help any hockey club. Toronto likely eats 25% of the cap and will end up paying out 20 millions dollars in bonuses for next season but both are very tradeable with only the no move complicating things as I am sure they will not want to go to certain teams.
It’s almost like when your glass cannon doesn’t fire you don’t win.
To me the Kadri-Barrie trade exemplifies the poor roster building the Maple Leafs have suffered from for all these years. In 2019, they gave up Kadri, a former 7th overall pick, to acquire Tyson Barrie along with Alexander Kerfoot. Due to the Maple Leafs' stacked offense, Kadri was only playing on the third line while Barrie was the best producer on the Avalanche's blue line. Kerfoot was a great addition since he was the exactly the type of depth forward the Maple Leafs needed instead of Kadri.
So in the short term, it seemed like a good deal. But fast forward one year with Barrie exiting through free agency, all you were left with is Kerfoot for Kadri while the hole on defense remained as gaping as before.
In the meantime, Kadri ultimately became a key piece of the Avalanche's dominant 2022 Stanley Cup run, not only filling that all important 2C position (that was originally left open when Duchene was traded), but also contributing with massive performances both against the Blues and the Lightning in the finals.
That Colorado team was unstoppable and Kadri was a big reason why. He's also been BY FAR the best player on the Flames the last two years.
It doesn't matter what Leaf management does. The Harold Ballard curse will thwart anything they do, since the curse affects management most of all.
This is hockey, not Harry Potter.
I really agree with your analysis. I don’t think any of the core 4 are bad players… and the Leafs are undeniably a good team. The problem is that probably 20 other teams are good and have some good players. The teams that win the Cup are great and usually have a roster that works better on the ice than on paper: the Leafs have a lot going, but there’s some x-factors that are clearly missing.
The greatest goalie in world can't stop pucks when you have a bunch of left-overs & has-beens as defensemen. But that's what Toronto has had for years since they decided to put all their cap space in just a few forwards. The Maple Leafs are all regular season supers and playoff pushover puppies. Getting rid of Marner will not change anything as long as a certain someone who wears 34 only cares about his paycheck and his regular season records. Only when he wants to play with grit will the Leafs win.
@@GospelTestimonyHow many O'Brien Trophies has Toronto won since Kawhi left?
@donaldpaluga how many wouod they have won with DeRozan? Probably 1 less than they got
Yea. Decent to good team, but all contenders knows how to shut them down in a 7 game series. They're not even competetative enough to compete for top 4 in the east.
@@GospelTestimony Getting rid of one or two of the core is a start, but not will never solve anything unless those that remain play with grit. Right now the Leafs lose when 4 players are targeted. It won't help if they have fewer core players as long as they ignore defense. Unfortunately Toronto fans aren't willing to stand for regular season mediocrity in order to have playoff success. They are stuck on pre-cap buy the best of everybody teams.
I honestly don't know if this team can be fixed, they have so many holes trading Marner and letting Tavares' contract expire after next season probably won't fix them. Nobody seems to bring up that they suck at drafting. Their homegrown big 4 were all selected in the top 10 in the draft. Where is there Pavelski, Guentzel, Kucherov, or Point? Heck the Sharks top D-pairing for most of the 2010s was Vlasic and Braun. Vlasic was picked in the second round and Braun the 7th. The Maple Leafs haven't drafted anyone like that outside of the top 10. A big reason they can't support the core, is because they haven't really drafted any impact players outside of the first round. You can't do that in the salary cap era have success in the playoffs.
Always the best content, Ty for the in depth discussion 🤝
Good analysis that too much dough goes to core 4. Common knowledge but well said here compared to other teams
Fantastic " Look at what's ailing Toronto ! Now are they going to Fix it ??
Everyone talks about the money spent on those 4 guys and not having enough around them. That is NOT the problem. The depth players especially this year were enough for them to win. The playoff problem is (and always has been) that the core 4 do not produce in the playoffs. If they just scored even half of what they do in the regular season they would have had a lot more rounds won than they have. The third and fourth lines this year were great defensively. If the core 4 had averaged 3 goals per game on the regular they would still be playing. Stop complaining about the goaltending. Expecting the goalie to keep under 2 goals every game just so they can win isn’t realistic for any team in this league. No one would complain about half the cap spent on those 4 guys if they would just produce.
Well done THG.
This was a great straight forward video
Would you rather have 6-7 20 goal scorers or 3-4 50 goal scorers? Having 3-4 deep lines like Vegas did, wins championships.
*grabs popcorn 🍿
Trade Marner or Tavares for a 7th D and can of beans if you have too. The 11 million to spend is far more important
Just want to be clear. I’m a devils fan. Having said that. You are 100% right about the leaf’s construction with contracts. I’ve said it for a long time. And while the Devils have their own struggles. My number one fear has been that they too would give their players Toronto like contracts. Thankfully it hasn’t happened yet…
PS…
If the Devils go for Sheldon Keefe, I’ll sell my jerseys now.
I would be hesitant too if I were you. Seems like the GM is on the hot seat though, hopefully you guys can figure it out.
"Toronto like contracts" a new phrase is coined.
One of the things the Cap era has done is make building a Cup winner a lot more difficult. The Canada vs US pressures aside, the cap hasn't changed the fact that top players will still get their money and those salaries have continued to go up exponentially regardless. If you're not careful as a GM, you could find yourself with a really top-heavy team. One of the reasons the Bruins have stayed competitive and a relative contender for so long is that they have never really had a "superstar" player. They've had very good players, but rather than having the McDavids of the world, they had Bergeron and Krejci, guys who were excellent at both ends of the ice, but also commanded significantly less in cap money. It's pretty hard to put together a complete, hardworking team when you have players like Matthews, Marner and Tavares eating into half your cap space. If those guys don't show up in the playoffs, you're in a lot of trouble. The problem is that guys like Bergeron and Krejci were hardworking players who actually had to outwork the opposition every night to be successful, which proves that having the most talented players doesn't always guarantee success if those players rely solely on that talent.
Yup, the old saying “hard work beats talent when talent refuses to work hard” comes to mind when i think of this Leafs team
Excellent points, Chris. You can also put the 2019 StL Blues Cup winner in that category. No top superstar (Tarasenko and Pietrangelo aren’t quite superstars IMO), but 2 solid forward lines and their 3rd and 4th lines were deep and played heroically.
The other key was a big, mobile D-corps. Most were over 6’2”.
Plus Binnington was on fire.
So, to me that’s the model, rather than having 3-4 superstars and “a bunch of other guys”.
@@OldRustySteelesounds like what our canucks have atm!! ✌🏼🔥
@@ameliedewitte Good luck Amelie! As a long-suffering Blues fan (until June 12, 2019 😃), I’m rooting for Vancouver. It’s time for you guys to hoist The Cup!
Appreciate it!! Was defs rooting for the blues during their cup run as well 🙏🏼🙏🏼
they need a proper stanley cup goalie and they need depth in the defense
They needed that 6 years ago BEFORE they gave Tavares $11M a year. Now, they can't afford either of those things.
Shannon makes more sense than the Maple Leafs management over the past eight years.
They should never have gotten Tavares in the first place
Totally agree; they could have beefed up their defense with that money.
So the whole world seems to understand that this core 4 shit doesn't work. Why can't management see it?
This year they wouldn't have needed more depth scoring if the PP could have converted a few more. As much as the cap numbers are better for COL, you just can't compare the difference in performance between MacKinnon, Rantanen, Nichushkin, and Makar, and the Leafs core 4.
I agree they need a number 1, 30 minute all situational Dman. Plus a true number 1 goalie.
One of the things that I loved about the Dallas Stars this year was that they had eight guys with 20+ goals. They did not have a 40 goal scorer. They had three lines that could score and their fourth line was also pretty darned good at scoring, and they were very good at scoring short-handed goals. Yeah, from the basic fan level it is really great with a guy like Mathews who can score 69 goals for a team, but when he isn't on the ice it's time to go the snack bar. I would much rather have a team like the Stars with scoring all over and on every line. That was the Avalanches problem against the Stars in that they did not have three lines that could score for them and when they lost Nichushkin they were down to four guys who could score. That was their weakness.
Love the content! Keep up the good work. I'm a leaf fan sadly lol
Excellent analysis.
The Toronto script writers seems to have found what they like. Good, but not great, never to make a deep run because it still makes them money.
10/10- no notes. I think you nailed every part of this conundrum
great look brother
I’m not going to comment on right or wrong, but I love the analysis
Sooo… The Leafs are paying Tavares the same as Kreider and Shesterkin combined. That is just genius. (No wonder the rangers are good)
They remind me so much of my Caps between 2009-2017.
Not for me, those caps won Pres trophies and actual playoff rounds
The Caps did win playoff series during that period, and were the best team in the league 3 times. Their main issue was that they couldn't seem to solve the Penguins or the Rangers in the second round.
No as a totally neutral Habs fan I think they should run it back again. To paraphrase a former GM "They can and they will."
Seriously defence has always been a problem name one of the teams they have played in the first round that feared their defensive group.
They scored 12 goals in 7 games this year. The D and goaltending actually did well. The core forwards failed. 1 for 21 on the pp!!
As a Leafs fan, they were so good defensively this year that they have a lot to build on for next year
I think the conversation with Marner starts on July 1st and you talk to him about where he thinks his next contract should be, if it starts with 11, you ask him where he would like to be traded and start working on a deal. If he's willing to come down to around 9.5 per, next year his money is down, Tavares money is down and salary cap goes up and you have the money to build a good team
Shannon made a business decision putting this video first. 😂 I agree, they need to trade at least one of them (not Matthews) and give Woll the net from the get go next year with more depth.
I dont mind it. The first teams eliminated (Islanders, Lightning, Jets) are old news by now, why go in order of eliminated when this will get his name out there better?
Problem with that last part is that Woll keeps getting injured
The things I’ve noticed in this era…we play one style and it’s not one that works well in the playoffs. The last 4 games of the Boston series we played a different style but it didn’t stick
I love watching these year after year man
Everyone talks about moving Marner - it isn't as easy as everyone seems to think. The biggest problem is he has an NMC and it's up to him to waive it. Even if he does waive it, the Leafs are going to want a steep price in return - whether people want to admit it or not, Marner is one of the best playmakers in the NHL and players like him don't come cheap.
Also, Tavares' contract comes off the books after this season and that's a lot of salary that could be used elsewhere. My thought is to suck it up for next season and see how the team does under the guidance of a new coach and if they do well, there's the possibility of extending Marner's contract. If they don't do as well as expected, then blow up the team.
Tavares' contract comes off the books after next season, not this one. So that's nearly $23M in cap space committed to two guys for next year. And the team is not winning bringing both of those guys back next year. Marner has NMC, but plenty of players have waived NMCs before. And considering it's going to be a contract year for Marner, does he really want to stay in a place where he's not wanted? The Leafs are not offering him an extension with a raise. And if he doesn't want to waive his NMC, the front office can play hardball and stick him in the press box until he gives a list of teams he's willing to go to. And also, teams will know the Leafs are desperate to offload Marner, so the asking price won't be so steep. And really, the Leafs need the cap space more than they need a good return from trading him.
Every team needs to change. The question for Toronto is how much change and in what areas. I think getting rid of Tavares and his contract is the only thing I'd put on the essential list. I wouldn't dump any of their other stars with long-term contracts -- the cap is going up and the Leafs worked hard to negotiate these deals. Matthews and Nylander were injured or unavailable at times, as was Woll. They still almost won the series against Boston! I am not a Leafs follower so I may not feel the long frustration with this core, but I would not throw babies out with the bathwater on this. I think they are getting better and now cap space is coming.... a very small retool, not a massive rebuild is my feeling.
One of the depth issues relates to all of the players (like Kadri and Hyman) that were moved because they couldn't afford to keep them. Add to that all of the bad trades Dubas made, including all of the draft picks he squandered. Next year (2025), they don't pick until the 5th round! You need to be able to have good young players on entry level contracts.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a remarkable team. With their speed and skill on the ice, the team is built for the regular season. they are not boring to watch but for the playoff, it's kind of funny the way you describe it historically
What's remarkable about them? I'll wait.
Read a little deeper. It’s easy to glean. The person said “built for the regular season”. Then says “but for the playoffs”. So when the person says “remarkable” they are pointing out how they are extremely good in the regular season and fall apart in the playoffs
Morgan Reilly isn’t a step below makar he’s 3 steps below makar, which isn’t an insult because fox and Hughes are also a step below makar
Leafs fan here - I agree with your assessment and I agree with your suggestion of what action they need to take (change philosophy, move off the core).
My question for you is: do you think they can actually make the moves they need to make and end up with a competitive team?
As a Tampa Bay fan I can tell you that stamkos taking a team-friendly deal has done wonders for the organization in their ability to continuously be in the running. I'm just for that he deserves to remain a bolt for the rest of his career.
Leafs fans were pretty happy for the regular season.
You can't have more than 1/2 your cap space tied up in 4 forwards. Can't see anyone taking on any of those contracts. Even Marner for just 1 year.
I am not convinced that Kyle had any autonomy in the contract negotiations. It’s the Shanaplan.
That click bait hooked me hard.
Keeping players in a Canadian market usually seems to cost more due to the exchange rate and taxes. The players get less per dollar and need more money to break even with other US market contracts (especially in states that also don't have income tax). Would be cool to see a video detailing how big that discrepancy actually is.
Honest hypothetical question. If you gave this current Leafs roster to Torts for one season, could he win a Cup? I still don't think the defense is good enough, but their stars also don't perform all at once like they should.
While torterella is an amazing coach, he isn’t the best in every scenario, and might not be the best one for this group
@@Kmartsmart they need a coach like him to challenge the stars like Montgomery did for Pastrnak. But I also remembered Toronto's media. While every press conference would be blockbuster entertainment, he would probably lose it and get fired a few weeks in.
Tortorella would have a psychotic breakdown if he was dealing with Toronto media every day.
I bet you he could get the Leafs past the first round! Torts is a great coach but his style and message break down after only a few seasons. Outside of Vancouver, though, he has been a good coach everywhere he has been. I loved him here in Columbus and his teams were our best teams by a wide margin.
When Dangle says the mix isn't right. You know it's time for a change.
I am pining for a an NHL playoffs in which we get multiple Canadain franchises in the 3rd round. If the Sens and Habs could just shape up ...
Lol you probably would have told the red wings to move on from Yzerman too
Leafs imo are in a similar situation to the 05/06 Ottawa Senators. They leaned out the roster and went to the cup final. You need to wait a bit to really get the team on a good track key moves would be:
-Get a couple right shot defencemen Target Mountour and Pesce.
-Acquire Ullmark or Saros. Alternatively I would sign Stolarz and give Woll the #1 position maybe sign another vet in case Woll is injured.
- Move Marner or sign and trade Bertuzzi for another 2C and some energy wingers to add more depth.
- Wait until JT is off the books or try to trade him at the deadline and get a 2C between 6-8 million.
- I would also try to Chychrun or another two-way defencemen.
Big guy is the one you get the farm for,cheers
As a canes fan - I don't feel nearly as bad after watching this
Great video. I’m very curious to see what the leafs opening night roster looks like next season
Something( as a flames fan, though) I would like to see is markstrom traded to the leafs for marner
Markstrom is great but he's in his mid 30's. That'd be a hard bargain for Calgary
The most absurd thing about Leafs overpaying players is that playing for them brings crazy sponsorship opportunities. They should be paying the least in the league by far to their superstars as the earning potential would easily offset that.
@4:55 that was pure roast 😆
Just a thought…..but wouldn’t it be nice if the salary cap was adjusted for local taxes?
Teams within states with next to nothing in income tax should have less cap space, or am I crazy?
Such an unprecedented history of failure. Always finding the most painful way to lose. Most loyal and tortured fanbase.
The Leafs just need to play their game, give 110% and leave it all out on the ice.
Or something.
It’s a rough spot. Have to ride out the Tavares last year, not moving that. Marner has to go. It’s the only option. Need to whittle the big money down to Matthews and Nylander. Build up depth in the lineup.
As for Marner I can’t see him stomaching taking less than he is right now. Maybe teams will draw the line in the sand, but who knows.
I truly hope they find a way to fix this. Just want to see the Leafs turning things around and actually winning for once.
the question is, is there any other team that wouldve paid close to the numbers the "core 4" are getting? you cant expect to win the cup if youre overpaying people