Rise And Fall Of The 2023 Housing Market
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- Опубліковано 25 вер 2024
- Much like the carefully orchestrated steps in crafting a perfect sourdough loaf, the title 'The Rise and Fall of the 2023 Housing Market' encapsulates a meticulously layered narrative. Just as sourdough demands a delicate balance of ingredients and time, this title hints at the intricate interplay of economic factors, government policies, and market dynamics that influenced the real estate landscape in 2023. It explores the initial hopeful rise of the market, akin to the dough's ascent during fermentation, followed by the equally significant downturn-a reflection of the baked bread's fall. This title serves as a mouthwatering invitation to delve into the complexity of the housing market's journey, akin to savoring each stage of sourdough preparation.
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SOURDOUGH RECIPE: In this analogy, the steps of making sourdough bread mirror the steps involved in analyzing and navigating the 2023 housing market. Just as the quality of your bread depends on each step, the success of your housing market decisions depends on a thorough and well-considered approach.
*Ingredients:*
- 1000 grams bread flour
- 650 grams water
- 200 grams active sourdough starter
- 20 grams sea salt
*Instructions:*
1. In a glass or ceramic bowl (avoid metal), combine the bread flour, water, active sourdough starter, and sea salt. Stir all the ingredients together.
2. Let the dough rest for one hour in the same bowl.
3. After the initial hour, perform a series of stretches and folds. Stretch and fold each side and all four corners of the dough every 30 minutes, repeating this process three more times.
4. Allow the dough to bulk rise for 4 to 6 hours until it has doubled in size.
5. After the bulk rise, shape the dough into two sourdough loaves.
6. Preheat your oven with the Dutch oven inside for one hour prior to baking at 500 degrees.
7. Just before baking, remove the hot Dutch oven from the oven and place your formed loaf inside.
8. Cover the Dutch oven and bake at 450 degrees for 20 minutes.
9. After 20 minutes, remove the lid from the Dutch oven, and lower the oven temperature to 425 degrees. Continue to bake for another 20 minutes.
10. After baking, let the bread cool for one hour on a wire rack before cutting, no matter how tempting it may be to dive right in.
This detailed guide should help anyone make delicious sourdough bread following your recipe. Enjoy your baking!
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In this analogy, the steps of making sourdough bread mirror the steps involved in analyzing and navigating the 2023 housing market. Just as the quality of your bread depends on each step, the success of your housing market decisions depends on a thorough and well-considered approach.
**Ingredients:**
- 1000 grams bread flour
- 650 grams water
- 200 grams active sourdough starter
- 20 grams sea salt
In a glass or ceramic bowl (avoid metal), combine the bread flour, water, active sourdough starter, and sea salt. Stir all the ingredients together.
In this step, you're gathering the necessary ingredients for your housing market analysis. The "bowl" represents your data collection and research tools. These ingredients could include data on housing prices, inventory, interest rates, and economic factors.
Let the dough rest for one hour in the same bowl.
This step signifies the initial observation period. You let the data sit for a while without making any judgments. During this time, you might collect historical data and observe trends.
After the initial hour, perform a series of stretches and folds. Stretch and fold each side and all four corners of the dough every 30 minutes, repeating this process three more times.
Now it's time to dive deeper into your analysis. Just like stretching and folding the dough, you conduct periodic evaluations and updates to your data. This could involve checking for changes in market conditions, reassessing your data, and adapting your strategy accordingly.
Allow the dough to bulk rise for 4 to 6 hours until it has doubled in size.
This step represents the broader market growth or decline. You're looking at the overall trend of the housing market over a significant period, assessing whether it's growing or shrinking.
After the bulk rise, shape the dough into two sourdough loaves.
Now that you've analyzed the market, it's time to make decisions. Shaping the dough into loaves is like making choices based on your market analysis. You might decide to invest, buy, sell, or hold based on your findings.
Preheat your oven with the Dutch oven inside for one hour prior to baking at 500 degrees.
This step symbolizes preparation for action. You're getting ready to act on your housing market decisions, just like preheating the oven before baking.
Just before baking, remove the hot Dutch oven from the oven and place your formed loaf inside.
This step represents the moment of execution. You're implementing your decisions in the housing market. Placing the loaf in the hot Dutch oven is analogous to taking action in the real estate market.
Cover the Dutch oven and bake at 450 degrees for 20 minutes.
During this phase, you're closely monitoring the market. Baking at a specific temperature for a set time represents your strategy in action, and you're waiting to see the results.
After 20 minutes, remove the lid from the Dutch oven, and lower the oven temperature to 425 degrees. Continue to bake for another 20 minutes.
You're adjusting your strategy based on initial results. Removing the lid and changing the oven temperature is similar to adapting to changing market conditions. You're flexible in your approach.
After baking, let the bread cool for one hour on a wire rack before cutting, no matter how tempting it may be to dive right in.
Finally, you exercise patience in the market. Even if you see promising results, it's important to wait and let the situation settle before making further moves.
In this analogy, the steps of making sourdough bread mirror the steps involved in analyzing and navigating the 2023 housing market. Just as the quality of your bread depends on each step, the success of your housing market decisions depends on a thorough and well-considered approach.
I really enjoyed watching you bake while learning about housing markets.
@@Palucu thank you. Happy New Year 🎊
We bought a new build (Lennar) this year. We got 15% off the asking price which I don't think would have happened in previous years. In some areas Lennar is still building like they were in 2020-2021 (no buyers, just build, build, build). Admittedly we bought a home in a less popular and older neighborhood they were expanding. If you buy it in the larger "master planned" communities with every amenity you may still be able to get that price reduction, but it will still be higher than in a smaller neighborhood.
Also, we already owned a home and needed to move to a 1 story from a 2 story because of my husband's disability. If it were not for the fact that we already owned a home, then I can't say we could have afforded the mortgage on this home.
Whats your build quality like Those tract builders have a terrible reputation
Corporations should be legally banned from buying individual family homes. They can invest in multifamily buildings.
I concur!!
@@KristinaSmallhorn And after corporations are banned from buying, who are you going to blame for the fact that not everyone can afford a house?
@@seanm3226 wouldn't it make sense to to deal with a major & blatant issue & then work on the slightly contributing factors over time?
We all know housing is not affordable in general ,it's a multilayered issue , that needs a staggered & calculated solution.
Wall Street isn't the only reason but it's certainly exacerbating it
@seanm3226 Which corporate landlord or property management company do you work for?
@@seanm3226 better to blame each other than corporations and hedge funds. Easier to hold the average person accountable.
Unless there are massive job losses (i.e., layoffs) I don't see the housing market falling more than 5% in price. It is simple supply and demand. There is a lack of supply in most markets and demand is still strong, so prices will not fall from current prices. Also, people who already bought in 2020-2022 were much better qualified than in 2005-2008, so the number of foreclosures is not going to explode. I would say prices will be generally flat in 2024 and interest rates will drop to 6.5% during election year 2024. The failure of AirBNBs will not supplement supply to any noticeable degree. I don't think the drop to my predicted 6.5% will spur the market to increase listings or cause people to rush out and buy either. Basically, most markets will remain flat in 2024.
It is kinda strange to pay the buyers agent that’s going against the seller during the whole transaction.
We wanna know more about the cat!
Wait until the layoffs continue in the 2nd/3rd week of next year. We're in a seasonal pause right now and even with the Fed pivot inflation (politically motivated) is too high and people will be forced to sell. The question you have to ask yourself will we have a hard or soft landing that will force home sales, will we have deflation, and how severe. I and my brother are on the sidelines and we make well in the 6 figures salary.
She did the video with the baking!!! 😅
Hopefully more people see this, because a lot of people have an interest in misleading us about housing market dynamics. Stay skeptical out there, friends!
We need to invest in small builders
As a small builder I don’t need investment, I need to be left alone. For some entity to “invest” in my business it is quickly followed by some form of control of my company. No thanks.
@@seanm3226Build what's profitable. The end. For those in the back, business comes down to volume or margin. You already know that 🥂
Depends on what you mean by a small builder. Do you mean someone that builds small homes (1200-1500 sq ft) or builds a small number of 5000 sq ft homes annually? Unfortunately, the term “small home builder” is interchangeable in the lexicon. I only wish I could find someone that builds small, quality built homes even at their own slower pace!
Interest rates going lower. Home prices going higher.
Traditionally, yes. But the past several years all the rules have been broken.
So what the cause of lower rate? If FED lower rate just for flare the inflation that mean the overall economic will collapse.
@@PatamaGomutbutrawith the rate of inflation dropping the FEd needs to cut rates so they don’t become more restrictive. Additionally, banks historically have a fee on top of the FED funds rate that is 1.5-2% higher (their cut) it is around 3% right now. Add those two cuts and rates are closer to 5%
Absolutely love how you did this video! Amazing how the crash bros were wrong once again- Wishing you a super happy and blessed New Year Kristina!
Thank you for keeping us informed
Beautiful kitchen...love the baking metaphor! I tend to agree...there's no way out without a MAJOR investment from the government. Just like in previous times of extreme need. Merry Christmas, Kristina!
This seems right to me too. Maybe decades ago things could have been different with smaller, civically-minded private actors stepping up. But not now.
For comparison, Vienna built more homes in 2023 than ALL of Los Angeles has been bragging about completing in the next decade.
Think about that! (Vienna also has no homelessness.)
I can smell that bread. Seriously. 😂
The bread looks awesome.
BUY LAND first People‼️
Stop waiting for Others to determine your future while the CROOKS continue to STEAL FROM YOU ‼️
Absolutely LOVE this gal !!
And I love you too!!
Interesting analogy with the bread making/baking to the housing market of 2023. 2024 will be more of the same, limited inventory and high prices will keep most out, interest rates will retract, but not enough to make that big of a difference, the economy will continue to sputter along thus no real income growth and to top it off it's an election year, grab onto something its going to be a bumpy ride
As long as the corrupt AF / criminally indicted / con artist looser oh and twice impeached ____orange guy has a opportunity to become the new American dictator I mean president again ...we are in for a horrible ride in 2024 and potentially worse 2025 and beyond. SMH
Let’s slap an 80% profit tax on real estate investors on single family homes and use the money to build affordable housing for qualified buyers- those who will actually live in those homes- no renting
Absolutely loved this video.
Investors are going to continue buying up properties so long as they can squeeze 2500 to 4200 rent out of people. It wasnt uncommon for them to require up to 3 months worth of rent just for a deposit. So as a result Governor Newsome signed a bill capping deposits at no more than 1 months rent.
Like Ive always said, if the private industry causes or cant fix a problem, then government is going to have to step in. "Like"
Maybe you could build a house as your next metaphor.
Did I hear that guy you were doing the video with say "return to affordability"? Is that guy nuts? Slower growth from here does not wipe out three years of huge and unsustainable growth. Homes today are still very unaffordable. Housing unaffordability remains at their record worst.
Your break looks beautiful!! I think demand will stay high at the lower and middle end of the market in any city that is thriving because of the shortage. The upper end? Who knows.
When did you start making sour dough bread
I made the starter during the start of the pandemic. I only would make recipes that required a little starter but never actually made real breads until about 2 months ago. Apparently since my starter was very developed it made for tasty bread. Now I’m kinda obsessed with making bread almost daily. 😂
real estate and bread whisperer
can we get a video on how to make the soudough starter?
Oh!!! I’ve been waiting for someone to ask me this. I already had it saved in my phone just for this moment. Making a sourdough starter is a simple process, but it requires patience and attention. Here's a basic guide to get you started:
### Ingredients
- Whole grain flour (like whole wheat or rye) - It's richer in nutrients and wild yeasts.
- Water - Preferably filtered or dechlorinated.
Instructions
Day 1: Initial Mixing
1. **Mix Flour and Water**: In a clean jar, mix 1/2 cup of whole grain flour with 1/4 cup of water. The consistency should be like thick paste.
2. **Cover and Rest**: Cover the jar loosely with a cloth or lid and let it sit at room temperature (around 70°F or 21°C) for 24 hours.
Day 2-5: Daily Feedings
1. **Check the Starter**: By day 2 or 3, you should see some bubbles, indicating that fermentation has begun.
2. **Feed the Starter**:
- Remove and discard about half of the starter.
- Add another 1/2 cup of flour and 1/4 cup of water, and mix well.
- Cover and let sit for another 24 hours.
3. **Repeat Daily**: Continue this feeding process daily. By days 4 or 5, the starter should have doubled in volume and have a pleasant, sour smell.
Day 6 and Beyond: Maintaining Your Starter
1. **Starter Maturity**: The starter is mature and ready for baking when it reliably doubles in size within 4 to 6 hours of feeding.
2. **Regular Feedings**: Once mature, continue feeding it daily if kept at room temperature. If refrigerated, it needs feeding once a week.
Tips
- **Temperature**: If your kitchen is cool, the starter may take longer to ferment.
- **Water**: If your tap water is highly chlorinated, use filtered or bottled water.
- **Flour Type**: After the initial mix, you can start using all-purpose flour for feeding if preferred.
- **Hygiene**: Always use clean utensils and jars to prevent unwanted bacteria from contaminating your starter.
- **Discard**: The removed starter doesn’t have to go to waste; it can be used in a variety of recipes.
Patience is key! It might take a little longer for your starter to show signs of activity, but keep at it. Happy baking!
@KristinaSmallhorn I would still like to watch you make it... like we're hanging out making sourdough starter together because doesn't everyone do this?
Kristina, I am interested in what would be necessary to start a co-op for a mobile home park where the residents would own the lot their home is parked on. Sort of like co-housing but with a mobile home park rather than the usual townhouses. We as a people must get together and pool our resources to create affordable housing and not be at the mercy of an industrial landlord.
Please checkout ROC USA. This is something they help people with. rocusa.org/
@@KristinaSmallhorn Thanks
I truly believe it wil struggle
Same with the crash bros the motivation is there from the prices only go up cried who are over-leveraged in real estate.
I see houses sit for 60-90 days or more and the drop prices, some by $20k. When the escrow is figured with new tax increases in February, what happens?
Spring will be interesting. Bankruptcy is up 18%, credit cards at $1T. So who is buying?
People with money and corporations and hedge funds.
@@KristinaSmallhorn but they also have limitations. If money is down for them then it hurts everyone. Rents go down in price. Everyone hates Black Rock but how much of the market do they own? 1%?
The debt is the issue. Rent is so cheap it would be almost double to buy. We have zero debt and are amassing a down payment. Rents in my city have 3% rent control. With inflation they barely scrape by. Index funds do better, less the maintenance fees and taxes.
The same debt we paid off people over-leveraged in real estate, helocs to remodel, mortgage to buy rental property, short/long term, have and will be feeling the pressure to sell. Think of how insurance and tax increases impact this.
People who bought high are holding the bag when the houses sit. When the selling season starts in spring many underwater in real estate and debt might have little choice.
I think that's why people are jumping in with way high prices. Seen a house sit a year a drop $80k still sitting. This is in an area that you couldn't not sell and would have bidding wars.
Seems like the party is over.
2023 was a year that people thought carefully about the phrase "Jane Doe SPENT her life teaching..or John Doe SPENT his life as an attorney...Many people are choosing to SPEND their lives differently. Maybe the geographic move to cheaper housing area, maybe decluttering/downsizing the amount of space needed..Seriously thinking cuz life isn't 2 out of 3...best way to not only spend money...best way to spend to enhance the quality of life.
I don't know what will happen in the housing market. I know it's hugely unaffordable, and I predict unaffordability will continue to be a problem without a crash. It's simple economics, and everything has gotten so out of whack the housing market isn't working for most people. It absolutely needs to correct, and correct hard. Let's not pretend this historic price growth is anything approaching normal, and its effects have wrecked the housing market.
LOL "The Crash Boys" Unless we have mass layoffs (And I dont see that happening) home prices cant come down. We have a shortage. 2024 is an election year and the money printing will commence. As the sugar flows rates fall and more buyers come into the market. Prices go up
I agree !!!
Last year people are overly pestimistic and turn opposit. This year people are overly optimistic and over confident enough to say " mass layoffs will never happen" ..interesting to see the result.
I love the Kitties!
Who are these companies that want to buy "unused" land? What do they plan to fo with it?
The Crash Bros are not saying that the market is going to suddenly crash. It will be sneak up like in 2008. Remember that the cracks in the system were showing in 2005. The crash will happen in the commercial and investment real estate, first. Everyone is talking about how strong the unemployment market is. But it is false data. I who have 4 pt jobs is counted as 4 people in the stats... Huh? A lot of people are doing this!
They will at some point be right.
@@KristinaSmallhornEven a broke clock is right twice a day 🍻
Fun fact: mom and pop landlords own more investment housing in the US than corporations do
Mom and Pop investors don’t dictate the cost of housing for one specific area and town due to owning several houses in one neighborhood. They are not the issue.
@@KristinaSmallhorn They are when we either piggyback off corporate investor pricing or raise rent over the corporate investor because of a limited market. It goes both ways. Landlord here.
@@cb5516 oh, I get it!
@@cb5516that's just capitalism baby!!
Yeah, cars & housing has been declared to have crashed hundreds of times this year alone, according to the click-bait brigade.
I think that the buyers should be paying the buyer's agent because maybe they don't want to pay a for an agent. Maybe they are talented and smart people..maybe have enough moxie from life experience that they do not need a buyer's agent.. That being said. I think that most people should have a buyer's agent.
“'There are signs that the cumulative rate hikes are doing their job and working to bring the rate of inflation down to its goal rate. High interest rates are impacting the economy and hopefully will bring inflation back to 2% next year. The next move by the Fed will be a rate cut at some point in 2024.'”
You do understand that the inflation rates they give you excludes the important things like housing, food, utilities, etc? Those components are left out by design to give us bogus inflation rates or we’d have mutiny on the bounty!
Change is not always Progress. But a french king said "the more things change, the more they stay the same." - those business buildings to homes, re the toilets. Never been in a business building that did not have great "conveniences", and usually a bunch of em with hygiene facilities. So ... keep it like THAT, and hand out pass keys to residents. Showers/baths/laundries? Can that be on the ground floor as a shared facility? I see how one factor in life divides us more than even Envy - and that is - being able to Share. Maturity Index Indicator.
There's a crash coming. Only way a Crash doesn't come is if the market actually stabilizes and sells homes that are affordable or Rent prices have to become more affordable. It's like this there's a Rent bubble happening and either the rent bubble pops or Builders need to not wasting time building homes no one can afford to live in.
Interesting. It seems like the average American not being able to afford a house doesn't matter, nor does it affect selling prices. There doesn't seem to be a lack of buyers. Hmm....
@@cb5516Classic recipe for a bubble. Low supply high demand and prices climbing. So one or two things happen Market smooths into a healthy stable market or the bubble pops and we're in a worst scenario than 2008.
Just... no. There isn't gonna be a crash. The law that allowed the 2008 crash to happen was restored. Builders learned not to get stuck holding the bag during musical chairs. There are very few bad loans out. There's no catalysts for a crash. What are you basing your crash upon?
I agree. No signs of a crash@@arnezbridges93
@@Dallen9 Who dictates the supply? The same people who benefit from underbuilding. Then throw in restrictive building codes to keep affordable housing out a the tax base up and you have a manipulated market. That doesn't even mention the rental situation where most states charge double the property tax for a rental vs homeowner. The average American will soon be irrelevant in housing
3rd!!!!!
Glad to see you!!
Last year people are overly pestimistic and turn opposit. This year people are overly optimistic and over confident enough to say " mass layoffs will never happen" ..interesting to see the result.
I think mass layoffs are inevitable.
Just watched a video from UA-camr “How Money Works”, and they went into why the “silver tsunami” is never going to happen. Either due to Boomers selling their home to afford retirement, or because the home is going to be passed to investors due to the money getting eaten up.
That’s an interesting theory. It’s going to be interesting because I don’t see the wealth being passed down to younger generations. Thats for sure.