We Need A Big Drop In Interest Rates To Fix The Commercial Real Estate Problem | Jonathan Treussard
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- Опубліковано 24 чер 2024
- Economist and investor Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 176 to discuss the current state of the economy and markets and whether or not we are in bubble territory.
Link:
www.treussard.com/julia
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome Jonathan Treussard
00:52 Macro view, confusing data, too much volatility
04:11 Wealth inequality
05:33 AI
06:33 Is the economy healthy?
07:55 Money illusion
10:07 Bubbles and assessing market valuations
14:36 Geopolitics
17:50 Middle class
19:50 From musician to economist
27:15 Changing perception of America
30:34 Market risks: Nvidia, CRE, Private Equity, and Private Credit
36:00 Banking system
38:33 Concerns about CRE and private credit
41:37 Making decisions under uncertainty
45:12 Parting thoughts
#economy #stockmarket #investing
Hey everyone! I hope you enjoy today's episode featuring Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management. Jonathan is known for his research into bubbles, so we explore whether or not we are in a bubble. Please join me in the comments section with your feedback. And let me know who you'd like to see on the show next! We have episodes this summer with Mike Green, Neil Howe, Dr. Lacy Hunt, David Woo, and others. 😊As always, I appreciate all 39,080 of you who subscribe to this channel. You really are the nicest people on the internet. 💙Julia
No, we don’t need a drop in interest rates, we need a drop in value. Stop inflating the price. Stop the endless money devaluation by printing.
They gave already rich people money, who then bid up assets, started paying those close to them more, and now we have this huge debt bubble built on nothing. I love how these guys love to frame the 2k stimmy checks for a person making 60k a year is the cause of 30% inflation.
Million $ PPP loans which were giving to business without any vetting and then forgiven are the case of inflation.... Not the 2k stimulus checks.
@@Vin-pd7mh the whole thing was a grift. 80% of businesses didn't even need it and it went to second homes and boats
@@Vin-pd7mhYou mean Tom Brady didn't need that million dollar yacht he bought with PPP loan money? 😂😂😂
Yes, inflation is caused by an increase in the money supply. Six trillion increase during the health crisis.
Dropping interest rates makes prices go up and housing becomes even less affordable...
And I hope they lower them again and see prices go back crazy.
@@Resmith18SR Zimbabwe style? Million dollar bread and trillion dollar trailers to live in.
Pretty new to your channel. Kudos to your interview style and for listening and not talking over guests.
How many on your show in the last year thought the crash started yesterday?
Excellent interviewing skills, Great questions asked and highly intelligent Economist made for outstanding discussion!
another great show julia, thanks!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Why do we need a big drop in rates? 65 pct of my portfolio is earning 5.25pct in a Fidelity MMF !
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What a strange comment from Treussard, "“We have a large population that's increasingly gray haired and refusing to move out of empty homes,” Sorry for being alive.😏
You forgot "voted for policies where they have their taxes artificially reduced just because and ruined development so the youth can work closer to their jobs"
@@ericvondielingen5972 lol…Covid didn’t get me, they’ll have to gain some more function. 🏡🪧
Haha my guess is he was trying to say empty nesters are not down-sizing.
Well I like my big house and refuse to "downsize" until I have to.
I think we need a market paradigm that rewards investors in a way that reduces the pump and dump and the market squeeze from derivatives as well as a minimum holding time to stop the insane use of computer algorithm trading. And by the way, did you know that the Govt has changed the 401k ownership so that in the event the too big to fail banks become insolvent, our 401k funds will be drawn down to cover the banks. Basically the super rich who own the biggest share of the biggest banks will get bailed out using Mom and Pop retirement nest eggs. So if you think it's a good system, read the great taking.... and understand that your money is only yours until the Govt needs it. Let that sink in.
The U.S. is in a major stock, bond and real estate (commercial & residential) BUBBLE!
Bonds are at 2002 levels lol down 55%
@@dudewheresmyguitar21 That is only a warm up for the up coming market crash. Bonds if measured by the U.S. 10 year T-Bond yield was pounded down by the Fed's to 0.52% in August 4, 2020 today the yield is 4.20% just slightly below 4.49% average since 1871.
About every 100 days or so the Federal government is generating a 1 trillion dollar shortfall and so far it appears with zero political will to stop this insanity. Plus corporate America is loaded to the gills with debt. Given this backdrop I remain convinced that all three assets remain in bubble land, however, I will admit that bonds less so; a smaller sized bubble. With this economic/political backdrop over the coming years rates - [10 yr. T-Bonds] - could very easily be in the 8% to 10% range.
That's my take...Thanks for the feedback!
Ken
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
“ low rates to fix the commercial real estate problem”.. low interest rates are the root cause of the excessive credit expansion that led to out of control Mel-investments falling apart today.. the quick fix of low rates is not the answer..
Nobody needs to resume "mouse-clicking" trillions of dollars out of thin air. We just did that for over 20 years. Let the rich stand on their own. They'll muddle through.
Nothing worse than a champagne socialist like this guy
This guy has it wrong. We need a big drop in home prices. To do that we need higher interest rates. Then, after time we might be able to refinance if interest rates drop.
No. If your business model requires cheap money to succeed, it's a bad business model.
Smart guy, but I keep hearing from generalists, without real world bank experience, opine on the health of the US banking system. There are many academics that believe CRE will break the banking system. I left the banking system about 18 months ago and I worked for large regional and national banks. Underwriting hurdles were much higher over the past 15 years and the banks are over reserved for any CRE issues. Will we have some failures? Of course, but this not 2008-09 in the banking sector.
love your show and interview style, but this was one of the rather weaker guests.
Except the dead people during the Napoleonic Wars.
What does he think of Trudeau? Biden? I'm sure they are just misunderstood
272,000 jobs - ha ha ha, until it’s revised and the birth/death model is looked into. We’ve lost 1 million full time jobs in a year - employment numbers are total propaganda.
Ironically, he left western Europe and found socialism. If you were to ask him, I believe he would say that government is the answer.
What exactly is this guy's policy prescription? He recognizes the centralized government is the problem but criticizes election results of conservatives who want to dismantle these large, bureaucratic, corrupt, centralized governments.