Tesla Semi Will Fail - Or Will It?
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- Опубліковано 27 вер 2024
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Patreon Member “Anderson_W” Challenges IA
Anderson_W says…
ROI good investment?
My Semi Video has detailed cost savings broken down but let’s just talk fuel:
Aerodynamics
Semi Competition
Secret is ??
Plaid Torque Magic - High RPM
Naysayers - Gates & Daimler
Time to Charge
Cost to Charge
4 Mega Chargers cost $260K
MegaChargers vs Superchargers
Supercharger Cost to Setup
Battery
Fuel & Maintenance
PGE is a special case
Reliability & Safety
How much will this cost the end user?
Tesla Semi will cost $450,000 each
Real Cost of a Semi
ESG
Renewables vs Fossil Fuels
Competition
Margins and Tesla
FSD
Niche Market
Center Seat
Don’t Bet Against Someone Like Elon
Wow !
I have always enjoyed your reviews. This one has to be my most favorite.
Wow, thanks!
I am a huge fan of your channel. Learn a lot but specifically about trucking I wanted to correct you last time and so do I this time. I do manage 4-10 trucks for 8 years and want to tell you these expenses are way off. Diesel cost if $0.5-0.6/mi, not $0.945/mi as calculated here. Also brakes as stated in the last video are $150 per axle. Thank is $450-750 per truck ot tractor-trailer. Other than these specifics you are doing an amazing job, I watch every video and learn. Thank you for doing it!
Thank you for that. I did pull the data from a reputable source but I’ve never driven a truck but this is really good to know
@@InvestAnswers tesla will indeed capture the market by offering low maintenance equipment. Example: top-tier mechanics explained to me that some of my newer trucks are built in the way that multiple sensors have expensive chips in each of them while previous models had all five of these sensors connected to one chip. New trucks are built in the way that you have to spend more money on every repair. Menu experience technicians are making conclusions that this is part of the design to earn from service. If tesla will offer a less predatory design, customers will turn to Tesla.
So I don’t know much about driving a big rig truck, but I wonder how the hell do you hold your water for 8 hours? I can’t even hold my water for an hour before I gotta go to the can!😆😆😆
So here’s the thing about Tesla, that some people fail to see, Tesla, is a disruptor, and as Elon previously stated, it is the speed of innovation, not just innovation, but the speed at which innovation can take place that keeps the competition. scratching their heads wondering, what will they get hit with next?
So it’s not the big, that eats the small! It’s the fast that eats the slow!
I suspect most fleet operators in CA will cover their properties with solar panels, buy a few Megapacks and mega chargers then effectively go off-grid.
Levelized cost of energy in a solar + battery system is less than $0.10/kWh… PG&E is over double this rate off-peak and about 5x this rate on-peak. Opt out.
Regen is the greatest thing ever. My model 3 has 88k of aggressive driving and the brakes look to have at least 80% left in them. Barely any wear on the rotors and pads. 4 years of ownership, $600 on maintenance. Crazy for a 500hp performance sedan.
As a trucker in Sweden and an educator in the field I csn say that these trucks will work just fine.
European laws require 45 min breaks after 4.5h of driving or 45 min break after 6h if worktime ( loading, driving etc )
I’ve already told my boss to look into this. If we can charge during our lunchbreaks or where we park. It’s a suuuper profitable investment.
Awesome video with lots of kpm as always. It's so exciting to think of how much safer our roads would become with lots of Tesla Semis...uncountable times one sees truck drivers playing around with their mobiles and every time a child (or adult) gets killed by being in the blind spot of a turning truck, I have to think that this would not happen anymore with the Tesla Semi. Thanks so much 🙂and have a lovely weekend
Elon still needs to prefect the driverless option though that's the were the money is, but time will tell.
Thank you once again James-you WORK relentlessly to bless so many people you'll never meet in ways you'll never know. Started following you after I bought MSTR 2020- (and as a pastry chef- & countless midnight - early morning study after work (i work 12 + hours per day in a 1 star M) managed to increase the little nest egg quite substantially) .
Point is (it really is irrelevant what u might think of Elon) I have watched him closely and its not enough to say " he's just a genius " - there are many peeps whose IQ will fall in that cat- he really IS something special. Never ever bet against tech. Its astonishing to me to see how many "green -peace ESG tree hugging types" want to see h fail. Talk about a confusion.
Tesla, a soft ware company (like Aapl) whose bat/solar business hasn't even started picking up is but one of his ventures solo started and managed- go check out 4 those who care to : NeurA-Link, The Boring Co, StAr-Link (imho going to nullify cellphone providers) Space-X.
This is (understatement) such an exciting time to be alive- the x-pollination of varioius industries' r&d combined with exponential increase (go study what that looks like- exponential growth is so miss understood and so hard to grasp) is mind baffling.
James youn Sir are such Such!! a huge blessing in helping to aid in keeping us abreast with SUPER HIGH QUALITY NO FRILLS TO THE POINT UNBIASED WELL RESEARCHED DATA - that is relevant , timely ,precise and packs 100% KPM- all without (highly invasive irritating advertising). You sir are a true blessing.
Thank you!
Nothing in there about the weight of the cab, and the maximum tow capacity. Do we know these details publicly yet?
Great discussion today and excellent real world points made!!! 👏👏
As for those who keep pretending that ALL electricity comes from coal, refute them.
1.) Wind and solar and battery tech synergistically, and dramtically increase the value of each other.
2.) These technologies are growing exponentially.
3.) They never compare coal versus diesel. They usually ignore the impacts of diesel.
Well argued. Thanks James and the team.
I'm a semi truck driver for the second largest Supermarket in the UK.
The supply chain networks in the UK mean much shorter journeys. I never drive for more than 4.5 hours striaight without stopping for my legal 45 minute break.
In reality the supply chain means trunk networking trailers to depots which most are no more than 2 hours apart. The loads are redistributed between to new trailer and driver to deliver to the local surrounding supermarkets. A charging station at each depot could very well be enough.
Awesome feedback thank you so much. Keep on trucking 🫡
You are sadly mistaken if you think a battery powered truck is going to get out of paying the same road tax as a diesel rig does via diesel fuel taxes.
An EV truck driver isn't going to be able to walk away from the truck while charging as so cavalierly stated... not when you have three rigs sitting behind you waiting to charge.
Any truckstop I've been to would need 50 or 60 chargers to cover the normal truck traffic. That would only be $3,600,000 for charging hardware plus a coal fired power plant next door to supply all that electricity.
Hey Anderson W!! Great challenge, thanks!!
Thank you James 🤗
Sure was a fun research project! Uncomfortably LONG Tesla
The best review of the tesla semi I have seen so far. As a former over the road professional truck driver I am very impressed by these numbers, and my experience as a full time driver. For a solo driver, which is what I preferred myself, this has many advantages. For team drivers maybe not quite as well for now as the truck does not stop for the required rest periods, just changte drivers and the off driver in the sleeper. The distance covered is what pays, you are not making much at slower speeds or waiting for routine maintenance. The acceleration and faster speeds up grades will be profitable for the driver and the regenerative braking beats noisy jake brakes in both durability and added efficiency without the maintenance of the more complex retarders. I'm wondering how much drain of batteries will be required for heating in cold weather driving, comfort means a lot for those like I was who live in their trucks. This is also necessary while waiting in truck stops for loads or for roads to clear and electric heat and air conditioning takes a lot of battery power. Perhaps an auxiliary means of heat will be necessary or hook ups at truck stops.
But will they float?
Wow! A metric ton of good KPM. Thank you Mr. Anderson, and James.
🙏🙏🙏
It was fun to dive into some numbers and see what I came up with.
@@andersonw2253 Excellent research and questions. thanks 🙏- AW and I just realized AW is for awesome 👏
X TRUCK driver retired and you are spot on. New regulations won't let you move without the government permission. Rules have changed.
Thanks James. Excellent work. On charging grid mix consider that the efficiency of battery ev means even on the dirtiest coal grid that's fewer emissions & particulates than the equivalent amount of diesel engines spreading crap around. Always blows the haters' minds. Not the slam they think it is, not ideal of course but still better than numerous engines with exhaust fumes far and wide. Bless you Sir.
Thank you very much James!!
You are very welcome
James, here in the Netherlands, Europe the average KWH (kilowatthour) price is currently $0,82 (down from $0,91 last december).
1 liter Diesel is about E1,90 which translagtes to 7,84 $/gallon
@investanswers thanks James, always enjoy your content & analysis! I have close contacts in the truck component manufacturing industry and the biggest problem we've discussed re: electric semis is the weight of the battery. I'd be curious to learn how Tesla battery weight compares to its competitors.
I'm keen to see what James has to say. I'm in the transport industry, and thus far for our applications, the current technology for battery electric just isn't there. Tare weights are far too high, as we are never cubed out. I see the Tesla semi as being a rather niche product fit for the time being.
This was my thesis as well. I spoke with a friend in the industry and he passed on the purchase of Tesla Semi due to the things that you will hear about.
What they said about 1st EVs. Once cost to run and maintain comes down, Semi EVs inevitable
Likewise, i work in the commercial vehicle space.
EVs will dominate passcars but h2 will dominate medium/heavy duty. Still plenty of life left in gas and petrol for some applications....
@@andersonw2253 thanks for setting the challenge - would be interested to hear your thoughts now after James' video - did he address all your points? Cheers mate.
@@tdtesla , the short answer is yes. I respect James' thesis on almost everything. It is healthy to do your own research! I reached out to a friend that owns a trucking company and asked him interview questions and then did the math. I appreciate james giving me the chance to challenge him. I hope that it helped someone out there!
Hahaha Driving in the middle is like driving a Formula 1 😁... And we know what they use the CBs radio for 🤣🤣... Sharing infos yup ! Anyway, I'm wondering about the habitacle of the semis. It's too "clean", seem fragile all those tablets/screen, etc... Even if the breaks would last much longer, what about the other stuff. How much does it costs to replace a broken screen or the entire tablet ? Truckers treat their trucks like a membre of their own family, but accidents happen, coffee, food, grease... All over the screens... I suppose everything is water/dirt/sand proofed. Or is Elon's idea of a truck driver is someone wearing a tuxedo and using plastic gloves to touch the steering wheel ?
Much appreciated James! I'm so used to looking at your live channel that I missed a few videos here. I'll be catching up now 👍
In Europe you must stop after 4hours and 30 min ( If you don't want big trouble)
Thank you James for a great video!❤️ Also no, we cant trust WHO👍
Absolutely!!
Nice shirt! And thanks for the great work and info.
James have you been to Cuba Africa both East & South Africa have you been to Galapagos Islands, Iceland, Arctic or Antarctica,?
If not please consider...they are amazing places. I am a single woman & have been to all those places & nothing happened
Highly recommend them
will do but so hard to get to - been to Havana many times
Thanks James for the update on Tesla
Sunday best,🙏 James for another fabulous KPM
Tesla CEO Elon Musk broke the record for the largest amount of money lost by one person, according to a Guinness World Records article on January 6, 2023. He has lost $180 billion since November 2021, largely due to the poor performance of Tesla stocks in recent years. Doesn’t investing in his businesses seem like a bit of a risky move? Is it purely based on the belief that mass EV adoption is an absolute certainty? Would love to know your thoughts James.
If fast charging reduces the service life of batteries, even with cryogenic cooling aren't Tesla trucks going to suffer on overall per mile costs?
I really like your shirt, James. Thank you for all you do!
what is the net cargo capacity though? huhhhhh, them heavy batteries lot more than diesel.
The weight of the battery pack would be too excessive.
Ok boomer
With respect. I just couldn’t resist seeing your name 😆
You know nothing about Tesla Semi. Nothing.
The Tesla semi will probably do well with short haul trucking but not in long haul trucking unless the battery technology and charging infrastructure is massively improved. Also the more EV's there are on the road the higher the price of electricity will be which will negate the price savings of EV's.
Bugattis aren't engineered for lowest drag, they want to create some downforce to stay on the road at close to 300mph. The side effect of this downforce is some drag. By contrast a Honda insight has a drag coefficient of approx 0.27. The Tesla semi is the scaled up version of that with more frontal area. Quite an improvement from the average truck on the road.
I don’t know how you manage to make a video every single day. Such brilliant content. Thank
You
Thanks James, coffee ☕️ went down well with this one 👌.Enjoy your evening from 🇦🇺 🪃 🇦🇺 🪃
I like this method of notifying I can’t set a reminder Tesla moon boys 🎉
Hi all, quick question :)
Is patreon suitable for newbies?
Do you think humans will drive at all in the future? I know people who love ICE cars and the way they feel and drive. And those who simply like to get behind the wheel of a car and take long drives.
It will be interesting to see what the future holds.
I agree - I have a Tesla Model 3 & it is such fun to drive!! I always want the option. Maybe steering wheel & pedals that fold away for when you can't be bothered, or want to be driven home from the bar lol.
it's easy for an electric vehicle to have a lower drag coefficient than an ICE sports car because the ICE engine literally has to take in air to burn in the engine as well as pass through the radiator for cooling
seven cents per kilowatt-hour? where can I get some?
Simpsons nail it again - anyone see the Simpsons episode where Homer drives the self-driving truck? First aired in 1999
Thank you James. Always appreciated
Very welcome
Great informative video mate
All the stats are great but where are we going to get the POWER? Cal is already running short. Have you seen Lake Meade lately?
$0.07 electricity cost is HUGEly optimistic.
Somebody tell me how to participate in the testnet project of Venom which is having a huge money inflo please make a video or explain me about that
I NEED TO KNOW THIS! Where is James from? Cant determine the accent.
IMO after my own due diligence. The Tesla semi is now a driver friendly truck it is truly a driverless dream as of now . By no means is it a slam dunk but I think Elon can pull it off
@jonny_laguna I agree not***** a driver friendly car at all . No naps the windows are too far to clean from the inside to talk to anyone outside the truck is a pain .
Trucks need to pick u and deliver (the last 100 yards into and out of lot). No software will EVER be able to do that (unless the lot is built to accommodate that type of semi)
What about simple re-design depots for drivers get on for the first and last 100 yards? Seems simple fix
@cersei69 I agree that would work but adds a huge wrinkle in effort and expense required for implementation
musk got y'all fooled, where's the net cargo capacity? hmmmmm
Payload on a flatbed trailer is around 22 tons.
.7 for established electric price is way too low
As a truck driver I know the Lot Lizards are not gonna be happy with AI Semis taking away their business 😂
fascinating as always
Lovely video sir
Energy economics of the Tesla semi kill the diesel semi.
Tesla semi $0.07 per kWh x 1.7 kWh per mile = $0.12 per mile
Diesel semi $4.60 per gallon / 6.5 mpg = $0.71 per mile
I am a Tesla investor. That out of the way, your calcs assume the electricity price would remain constant and the grid will be able to handle more more EVs, trucks etc. Who will make all the bigger investment of upgrading the current grid which is forced in summer months when everyone turns their ACs on?
A Tesla supercharging network for these trucks will require entire substations to recharge them. The infrastructure is simply only not there, but not robust enough to handle adding them.
I can imagine only dedicated natural gas pipelines and on site power generation like Microsoft does with their wyoming server farms would be able to supply that much power in the short term. Later this century nuclear or battery backed up wind in the midwest.
@@RandomPerson-vf3ld …This is one solution to this problem. But, building that sort of infrastructure is years away and not built into the cost of the trucks end users will pay. The actual cost of these trucks will top 500,000 dollars to build this infrastructure out if they want this to be a reality.
Truckers don’t like to stop at all really .
That’s why they but drive time limits on drivers and there’s a ton of regulations
I believe semi can go for about 1000 miles or about 1200 on full tanks .
Big Tesla fan but from what truckers say the range is the biggest issue . They are losing money sitting at a truck stop
I think Semi's won't fly, but there will be a lot of them driving 🙂
If these tesla semi trucks are so wonderful, why don't we see them on the road? hmmmm
Currently these Tesla trucks are 'mid-range' trucks; which is fine. But will Tesla ever be able to create a practical long-range truck?
James, you have a Tesla? Cool! You must do well!
Great video! Tesla has a build quality issue that needs resolving for all of its cars; you think they would have resolved bad fits etc. Given the option of say a VW or Ford EV that is better overall quality would you not expect market share to be eroded until fixed, especially due to the reproduction of AI FSD tech?
People say that it’s so funny. Model Y flies off of 300 foot Cliff n four passenger survive. I have driven a ModelX for 4 1/2 years never had a problem.
Nope. Gasoline autos have build quality issues. Dah. Tesla - domination city.
You’re regurgitating 5 years old information!! Go to Tesla showroom and see for yourself!!
@@InvestAnswers Many thanks for the reply. I only mention this as all videos I see seem to show issues with rubber seals, body lines, etc. The real reason for the question is in a force-field analysis is this a real issue or a potentially perceived issue for an individual to adopt a Tesla. I don't at present own one but it along with quality of service is something that bothers me far more than FSD. I'm a firm believer that stock and product are two separate entities but both have bearing on the other. Keep up the animal work.
@@dogfacedponysoldier87 - It's a good way of looking at it. I only mention it as you're paying a lot for a vehicle and ensuring the door seals stay on the car could be a barrier to entry for people. The great thing about Tesla is their first mover advantage leading to market dominance.
Hi James! :)
Has Tesla fixed the issue of cold stopping owners starting their cars, or any EV manufacturer?
Ah! Articulated lorry to those in the UK 😀
How much free-cashflow does Tesla have to grow it's various businesses? When will Tesla be able to buy back the ~25% shares it diluted investors with? Knowing this will help understand when you as an investor will become profitable?
Umm : Elon: hold my kambucha
No they won’t actually fly but pretty close 😂
The 'Tesla killer' apart from more established auto manufacturers is blue hydrogen, how far away is that disruption from posing a challenge? With airplanes already looking to hydrogen when do you think this tech could trickle down?
Electric is not the future, there isn't enough energy in the world for every single combustion vehicle to be changed to electric nor capability to build the infrastructure for it, also if the demands grow the price will also go up, so the comparison about diesel and electric prices is not valid until you compare apples to apples, and nowadays the percentage of 100% electric vehicles is really small.
The aero part can also be applied to combustion trucks so that's not a factor, the tesla truck is a concept not tested in the real world with thousands of trucks working in a variety of road/ambient conditions like in the North of Canada during winter or a Desert in Africa for his entire life.
The electric charging stations needed for 100% electric cars and trucks, all with super fast charge capability, will need such a high demand of electricity and power that just the cables and infrastructure needed will be massive, not to talk about the price of copper if everyone uses electric will go through the roof, and all of the other metals like lithium for the batteries.
Also the real carbon footprint of an electric vehicle is massive, just the energy required to extract lithium, put it in a ship to transport it to the other side of the world to transform it into a bettery to then again travel thousands of miles to be fitted in a car, then again transported to the end user, just that is a massive carbon footprint, not to talk about the limited life of a battery, and forcing people to swap cars for electric ones is more contaminating that just keeping them running.
In the end Tesla will have to evolve to hydrogen or whatever ends up being the real solution to fossil fuels or it will die.
I think it will tank longer then people think for tesla semi's. The more weight the more battery you burn. The trailers leaving my place carry 30,000 to 60,000 lbs every single load through snow and the worst roads imagineble. Battery consumption for something like that is extreme and fsd is impossible. Optimal conditions though warm weather areas with decent roads I can see it happen.
You completely omitted HYLN in your comparison.
Are you saying that Elon is expanding the Nevada for nothing? When a guy can design a rocket after it launches, then it returns back to the launch pad, I don't doubt him. He's already proven so many wrong. I will have to see it fail before I believe it will fail. There may be some hiccups like the rocket, but I have no doubt that Elon will figure it out. 100%
👌😃🍷 ❤️ 🎶
James for president
Why not just convert all trucks to electric would be cheaper.
Again, a total lack of understanding of Tesla's poor quality. Look at statistics. And Elon's recognition that the quality is lousy.
James, you're a legend, and I love your channel, but please stop doing these 'I got challenged videos' rather do a video about the Tesla semi videos and the economics of it as you see it, the whole trying to prove your point vibe is not cool.
What about Hyllion and the ERX semi ?
I really hope they do a sprinter van. I put the deposit down for a cybertruck as I plan to travel to national parks with it but a Tesla sprinter van would be next level. Thanks for the video James
That would be cool!
Some think earnings report suggest Tesla Van may be coming
That would be so cool
Great idea
@@BeefNEggs057 I wouldn't be apposed to parking at RV parks when needed. With the CysberTruck there's talk of having the option to have solar over the bed cover. That won't cover driving needs but may be enough for living in the truck over a period of time. I'm looking forward to the CysberTruck update to see if this comes true and what range updates they have
I love chanel
U good honest and give us a lot good 👍
Regen braking alone is a reason enough to get all trucks with this feature.. I drove trucks for 10 years and now drive a Tesla.. It will work and sell out for years..
They will fly! This whole Pepsi deal is a mega Beta test, Semi doesn’t have 4680 cells, not even AutoPilot enabled. Still no Megacharger network deployed yet.
For now it’s only baby steps, but with lighter packs (4680 fully developed) and a proper charging network this will be a big catalyst for the stock.
James take a closer look to Megapacks, gross margins there are even better and it’s just 4-6% of the business 😉, if you put real numbers on the Megapacks, people would understand how big energy division will be on Tesla
Ha! So true about long distance driving and knowing every rest stop.
It’s 15minute breaks every 5.5hrs driving mandatory in Australia.. larger companies make drivers have more breaks…given recent deaths on roads..Big selling point for EV trucks
Possible in walled garden....warm garden🤣
What about reduced load capacity due to battery weight. This would cause significant profit loss.
bill gates, an expert about vaccines and electric vehicles, and anything else you can think of. He learned on lot on that island.
When will Tesla build a family car? Model S and Y are nice cars but useless for a family with 2-3 kids going on vacation ;)
James Thank you
The community of communities grows.😀
Are you still a sol fan?
thanks James
Let's wait and see what James has to say...he has the research that I don't even have a clue how do!
Electric vehicles are just as bad if not worse than fossil fuel powered vehicles. Change my mind. We need hydrogen powered vehicles.
Only you can change your mind...
This likes to waiting ratio is fantastic 😊 g'day all