From Uber to Tesla: Navigating the Next Wave of Transportation Tech ++ BioNTech vs. Moderna (e2451)

REQUEST!!
This week on the Oakcliff segment, Dawn discussed the awesome accomplishments of Oakcliff Sailing this year. She suggests 3 ways you can support Oakcliff in 2025, they are…
1. Join and/or host the Oakcliff Winter Tour
2. Train at Oakcliff in '25
3. Make a donation to Oakcliff Sailing
Check out www.oakcliffsailing.org for more.
SHOWNOTES
[01:00] World Oil Supply & Demand (Exhibit C)
The conversation centers on Iran’s oil exports and U.S. policy implications under a new administration. The hosts discuss China’s flat energy demand growth and the critical role supply-side adjustments play in maintaining stable oil prices. They explore the complexity of surplus management and its impact on Brent price stability.
[04:00] U.S. Gas Demand & Supply (Exhibit B)
The hosts analyze the natural gas market, noting seasonal demand fluctuations and the significance of capping dry gas production. They discuss the role of LNG exports, the influence of shifting power generation (including AI-driven demand), and the impact of surplus on price stability. Attention is given to how these factors interact with geopolitical events and long-term production targets.
[06:00] U.S. Government Revenues & Expenses (Exhibit A)
They review the U.S. fiscal picture, focusing on the two trillion-dollar deficit and the challenges of reducing spending by a trillion dollars. The conversation covers potential effects on 10-year rates, Fed funds rates, and overall economic stability. The hosts consider Elon Musk’s proposed budget cuts and regulatory reforms as aspirational steps toward balanced growth.
[09:00] Consumer & Technology Stocks: Uber, DoorDash, Airbnb, Five Below, Harrow (Page 20)
The discussion shifts to consumer and tech-related stocks. They consider the potential turnaround at Five Below, Airbnb’s struggles to maintain free cash flow growth, and Harrow’s supply-demand challenges. The team also contemplates how ride-hailing and delivery companies might adapt to autonomous transportation and AI-driven efficiencies.
[11:00] Uber ($UBER) & the Advent of RoboTaxis (Pages 20 & 1)
Focusing on Uber’s future, the hosts debate whether RoboTaxi services will reshape ride-hailing. They highlight partnerships like Uber-Waymo and consider Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology. The conversation centers on who might control the “choke point” of aggregation and the margin opportunities that come from scaling autonomous fleets.
[13:00] DoorDash ($DASH) & Humanoid Robots (Page 20)
They explore the complexities of last-mile delivery and envision humanoid robots bridging the gap from the curb to the customer’s door. The hosts cite Tesla and other startups innovating in robotics, noting how AI-driven solutions can handle diverse delivery scenarios.
[16:00] Tesla Valuation vs. Uber (Pages 1 & 20)
The team evaluates Tesla and Uber in the context of autonomous driving’s long-term value creation. They weigh Tesla’s high valuation-backed by its leading tech-against Uber’s current multiples and potential platform advantages.
[17:00] Commodities & The China Effect (Page 18: FCX / ALB / CF / NEE)
While China grows at 5%, the nature of its growth (services over heavy industry) may curb traditional resource demand.
[18:00] Logistics & Retail (Page 17: FDX / UPS / NKE / COST)
The conversation turns to FedEx, UPS, Nike, and Costco. They consider Amazon’s logistics advancements as a significant competitive factor and speculate on the possibility of privatizing the U.S. Postal Service.
[19:00] Consumer Food & Beverage (Page 16: MCD / SBUX / CMG / CELH / HLT)
They spotlight Chipotle’s solid performance, Starbucks’ leadership changes, and the evolving energy drink market where Celsius competes.
[20:00] Pharma & Biotech (Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX)
Pfizer’s broad reach contrasts with the more focused R&D approaches of smaller biotech firms. Vertex and Lantheus are noted as high-potential investments with promising pipelines.
[22:00] BioNTech vs. Moderna (Page 15)
The hosts compare BioNTech and Moderna’s post-COVID strategies, assessing their R&D spending and clinical trial prospects. BioNTech’s disciplined cash management and recent positive data stand out. Both companies aim to leverage mRNA technologies for next-generation vaccines, including potential cancer treatments.
[25:00] Oakcliff Update
[27:00] NVIDIA’s AI Leadership (Page 3)
The conversation pivots to AI chips, with NVIDIA at the forefront. They debate if NVIDIA’s sales could surpass ambitious targets by 2027-2028 while maintaining margins.
[30:00] xAI Data Center in Memphis (General)
They highlight how Tesla’s xAI initiative rapidly built a massive data center in Memphis, surpassing industry norms. The hosts question why Microsoft, Amazon, and Google haven’t matched Tesla’s rapid data center growth.