Those pilots fought that plane for the longest 20 minutes of their lives. They are heroes for saving those they could. Condolences to the families of those lost.
Damm. They tried to do the impossible and tried as hard as they could and actually saved some life's pulling of this heroic feet of flying. My prayers go out to all families.
@jamierace1832 Ukraine or US backed militias. It's definitely not Russia as half the passengers were Russian and Putin sent aide and released one of the first statements
I'm a former Air Astana 190 pilot, landed at Aktau many times. The jet has a FBW tail, but there are cables for the ailerons that will control them if hydraulic power is lost. Looks like they lost control of the ailerons by the end. I have 5,500 hours on these.
Can you confirm the Stall Speed of the E190 in a clean configuration? Based on video evidence, they've flown around 175 kn ground speed shortly after the right wing started to drop in the end.
That is correct (I am more familiar with the 175). I do believe all the E Jets are built with a hydraulic assisted cable driven aileron and everything else is fly-by-wire.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Spoilers are always hydraulically actuated and have no cable backup, so they would have only the main ailerons, which looks like it wasn't enough.
Aren’t the actual actuators still hydraulic though? And regardless of flight controls, I’m assuming all three hydraulic systems run into/near the APU anyways?
In one video from inside the airplane you can hear a flight attendant telling the passengers to remain seated and remain calm. " Everything will be alright " , she's heard saying. ..........For some reason that brought tears to my eyes. RIP to all involved.
Yes. She said everybody please remain silent. 20 people please move to front side of the plane. Please do not stand in the aisle. It is dangerous. Everything will be all right. Please follow the safety instructions. Please remain seated.... Unfortunately her father told to azerbaijan media that he got a call from AZAL and they told him that she didnt survive the flight.
The pilots of this flight are every bit the same heroes as Al Haynes and his crew. The fact that anyone survived if a tribute to their efforts. God bless them.
Not that it matters that much, but for Russians, Christmas is the 7th of January, and they shot a plane from a muslim country on his way to a muslim region of Russia...
Post soviet states that have the closest ties to Russia all celebrate Christmas on the 31st/1st of Jan. And the Orthodox church on the 7th of Jan. But close enough if you try to down a few passenger jets :(
That sounds pretty unlikely considering almost all of the shrapnel damage is concentrated on the tail surfaces. Also, half of the occupants survived so basically pretty much everyone in the rear section of the fuselage. All of the casualties were most likely in the obliterated forward half of the aircraft so if somehow some shrapnel got to any of them, it didn't make any difference to the outcome.
The first video I watched of this earlier today reminded me immediately of the other flight you mentioned. This crew were fighting the same type of battle. Their actions today saved lives. This crew are heroes.
I don't know how long it took to lose all the hydraulic fluid, but they could have had more control earlier in the period after the missile strike, makes you wonder if they could have chosen a closer landing spot maybe they could have had a better chance? Don't suppose there was much available though due to the mountainous region and they perceived a safer place would be outside of Russia/Chechnya.
@@nickmaclachlan5178 Exactly. They were just shot at by Russian Air Defence. I surely do not blaim them for trying to land outside of Russia. They must have feared to be "falling out of a window" in case they would succed a landing in Russia.
@@nickmaclachlan5178 My guess is the oscillations began shortly after the "strike" like within a few minutes. The crew were likely still trying to figure out what happened when they found the plane out of control. They controlled it well enough to keep it from crashing all the way until time to "land." Heroic effort by the crew.
Lets acknowledge just how spectacular of a job these pilots did with the hand that was dealt them. Talk about having the most limited options with the best possible outcome all things considered! RIP to all lives lost!
Despite incredible efforts from the crew to control an aircraft with no hydraulics they couldn’t reach the runway. Still they managed to save the life of some of the passengers.
I’m just a regular passenger. I saw eyewitness video of the last minutes of the flight and I’ve watched enough Blancolirio videos to recognize that the pilots were struggling to control the aircraft due to a hydraulic problem. I’m shocked to learn that the root cause was that the aircraft was shot down. Those pilots are heroes. If they had tried to return to Baku, there probably would have been no survivors and multiple casualties on the ground. I’ve watched Denys’ video and it is excellent. So much for peace on earth, eh?
The initial reports from Russian authorities "suggested" bird strikes. However the video and photo evidence posted on social media suggests otherwise. The only way this could be a bird strike was if the birds were full of lead
The last incident this manufacturer had was with Pergozins plane…… And Russia immediately cut up and buried the wreckage. The Manufacturer called Russia to start an investigation and were literally told “Don’t Bother” and were hung up on. Their stock went up a few percent points too because everyone knew that was not the manufacturers fault in that case. Let me tell you Embra will investigate the heck out of this crash. That tail though does not look like rocks just hit it on impact….. to many holes…😢
It appears that shrapnel damaged the rudder controls and/or possibly the horizontal elevator(s). They didn't experience a "bird strike." This was a loss of aircraft control, like the tail explosion on Japan Airlines Flight 123 or the engine/fan blade loss on United Airlines Flight 232 that severed controls. This aircraft was experiencing the same up and down "phugoid cycles."
Those pilots did a very impressive job of controlling that plane with just two engines. They very nearly pulled off that landing but it was doomed because of the high speed required with no flaps. But they nearly pulled off the impossible. Sympathies to all concerned.
I found another video that pans along the side of the fuselage from the tail forward towards the severed end, and there are several more holes visible all the way up to what remains of the left wing rear fairing. Helps to illustrate why a life vest was hit inside the cabin.
Ah, I was waiting for this! There is also video of the opposite side of the tail section showing the exit holes where the edges are bent outwards. What is shown in this video are the entry holes with edges bent inward.
My heart goes out to the pilots and crew who worked so hard to protect the souls in their care, as well as the souls on the ground. Let's hold their loved ones in our prayers. We might also want to remember the soldiers who made this horrific mistake; they must, somewhere in their soul, feel just awful even though they did not mean to hurt innocent people.
4:51 Actually it _is_ the accident aircraft, but on earlier footage of course: 4K-AZ65. Many thanks Juan for another quick report, our thoughts are with all those affected.
Good point Juan, i analised too this morning the track in FR24 and you can see that E190 startings loose control over the caspian sea, heading and airspeed, we know exactly what happen when hidraulic lines fail.
Saw the videos, the plane was rising then dropping multiple times as a result of loss of elevator controls the pilot was using the engines to maintain directional somewhat control over the crippled jet.
Have been waiting for you to weigh in on today's crash. The video of the pilots fighting to control the plane for the last two minutes before the crash breaks my heart. They are heroes. The quick response by Russia, saying this was acrash due to weather, followed by characterizing the emergency was due to a bird strike, made me hope that this was not what it indeed turned out to be.
where ever they are Orville and Wilbur came to attention as these folks passed into history and said "there walks an aviator" . the courage of the crew and calm of the passengers is amazing. the guy reciting the call to faith of his religion almost brings tears.
I have very little doubt that this aircraft was indeed shot down. Denys made a fantastic video explaining it as you have linked. I thought his video style reminded me a lot of your own style. I happen to watch his other channels but the algorithm recommended me his Pilot Blog channel video on this incident. I think he did a fantastic job giving realistic and probable explanations to this crash. Thankfully out of this tragedy some were able to survive and the crash site is in a country that will respect international investigation processes. For the families of those who are lost I am almost certain that there will be an answer as to what happened in due time. May those who became victims find the justice and honesty they deserve.
Juan, I've checked your channel earlier today to see if you already had a video on this. Glad to see I've caught it 34 minutes after you've uploaded it.
Such a sad and needless loss of life. Brings back the sad memory of Korean 007 in 1983. It's too bad that civilians now are more and more becoming collateral damage. Rest in peace to the courageous pilots who fought till the end and sacrificed themselves to save as many passengers as they could.
When I first saw the video, it resembled so much of the flying behavior of the JAL123 and wondered if it had hydraulic problem as well. My heart goes out to those on board. It must have been a terrifying.
Unfortunately it happens to the best of them. I’m not a Boeing fan (sorry Juan!) but the 777 has a stellar safety record that was massively impacted by MH370 and MH17 (the other Russian shoot down incident) in close succession. Neither were a knock on the aircraft, but so many lives lost nonetheless.
Knowing how close Kazakhstan and Russia are, I think it’s inevitable that they will cover this up and say “the holes were from birds traveling at supersonic speeds”
I wouldn't be surprised if agents of Russia are at the crash site looking for the flight recorders just to ensure this vital evidence doesn't get found by crash investigators.
I think the Russia - Kazakhstan relations are less close than Moscow would wish. It is inevitable that the Russians will *try* to cover it up - how successful they are remains to be seen. I hope the Kazakhs hold true. I do think that same hope is the reason those pilots fought that plane all the way back across the Caspian. All honor and respect to them.
Waiting for this one from Juan. Watching people argue and insult each other on other news videos comments. Just figured I’d wait for the experts to weigh in.
@@_Ben4810 You mean like Turkey's occupation of Cyprus since the 70s? They're now members of the EU whilst continuing to occupy that territory with military assets.
@@_Ben4810 Oh yeah, everyone else is respecting "international borders" (as if that was even a agreed upon thing in many cases), it's only Russia that ever violated them...
Just a guess based on the video and the shrapnel damage to the tail, looks like they lost elavotor control and were trying to control the plane with pitch trim.
That pic shows the aircraft stalling the right wing, so Juan is correct. The pilots would have been trying to get that left wing down to keep level so there should have been left spoilers up.
The sad thing is that after the United accident, as well as a very similar case where a DHL A300 was hit by a missile in Baghdad, NASA determined that it would be possible to implement software that uses only engine thrust to controll the plane normally... yet, the regulators to this day don't require this software due to the "low likelihood" of such an incident...
It might be able to maintain directional control for nonmaneuvering flight, but what it's *not* going to do, is permit a controlled landing. No amount of differential thrust control will allow you to come in to land at an acceptable speed, because if you have no elevator (or elevator trim) control or flaps, the only way to keep the nose from dropping is to keep the aircraft fast.
Thank you very much for this explanation. It seems to be plain clear now what happened. Thank you very much, too, for mentioning Denys, he did a very convincing clarification what happened. My condolences to the families and friends of the deceased. May the survivors recover fully.
Interesting that the main stream media (major news outlets) going with the story that the aircraft hit a flock a birds. Those pictures in the video clearly shows it wasn't a bird strike. Prayers to the families.
but not in the news reports. They're still going with the 'possible bird strike' until they get verification. Not everybody can verify immediate reports instantly.
wow i didn't think something like that could be survivable when i saw the crash video and to find out it was shot down, its even more shocking people lived. so tired of evil people spreading pain and suffering to others.
@@georgobergfell Indeed. There was no chance from the beginning that this would be a bird strike, but I thought at first on a technical failure of the flight controls. That the aircraft had problems with its flight controls was obvious when the first video´s about its crash appeared in the net.
@MentourPilot has a video about a maintenance failure that had an E-190's ailerons working opposite and cross-purposes to the controls & the flight spoilers. Very different issue but discusses the aircraft flight controls. Titled: "Runaway AIRCRAFT! This Aircraft Flew TWO HOURS Without CONTROLS!"
Who did it...? Surely to do something, you need to find the cause, and the culprit, right? Or are you just happy to blame a country you probably cant point to on a map, but that you've been taught to hate for reasons you can't explain?
Something else is going on here: Baku to Grozny (approx. 480 km, heading NW) but now the aircraft has an emergency and is travelling East and crashes 440 km from destination Grozny (and 385 km from Baku) having travelled at least half way to destination Grozny as shown by the first part of the flight tracking. Of course there are many possibilities but the basic rules of aviation are seriously conflicted in my mind.
The saddest thing to me is the technology that could have saved them exists. There's a differential thrust tech that I think NASA came up with after United 232 happened but it was deemed too expensive.
It’s just software. No hardware changes required other than an integrated flight control computer system. Airbus has that capability. Boeing does with some of its aircraft (not the 737 however).
4:40 I've taken this video and calculated the ground speed off of it. It's around 175 kn. That's close to stall speed on a fully loaded E190 in a clean config, if I'm not mistaken. That's probably the reason why the right wing drops so sharply.
I believe that the flaps and slats were extended and this can be seen in the still image at 5:00 in your video. It's not 100% clear but you can see the deflection if you look closely.
looks like Asian carriers are flying over this route still from Hong Kong to Europe. CX289 flying right over the spot where the place crashed, as of Dec 26th Hong Kong time
How surprising to see Russian made aircraft in this region... almost as surprising as water being wet. Just out of interest, do you even know where the Caspian Sea is...?
The cable aircraft MD/ DC9 series works best. You can loose all hydraulics you still have perfectly flying aircraft. I flew the earlier same day and route as the Malaysian 17 that got shot down over Ukraine/ Russian border. When I questioned the dispatcher’s decision to route us through a war zone , The answer was that ICAO had the airspace open.
What are the chances that the cables are all missed by the shrapnel? I suppose that some part of a cable system might survive without the rest, but there's already a lot of redundancy in having 3 hydraulic systems. So sad, regardless.
Correction UAL 232
Putin still claiming a bird strike.
Should be a very interesting cockpit voice recorder.
And Denny Fitch, not Finch
No mainstream media - at least here in the UK - is saying anything about a shoot down. What the heck is going on here!
Edited. Juan, the ASN shows accident as category. When would this be updated?
Those pilots fought that plane for the longest 20 minutes of their lives. They are heroes for saving those they could. Condolences to the families of those lost.
Rest in peace.
@@tscott6843 and through their hands they helped saved people and the plane. And now the plane can tell the story of what truly happened.
Indeed. My condolences, too.
Touche.
They say a little over 30 people survived, which is a testament to the flying skills of the pilots.
Damm. They tried to do the impossible and tried as hard as they could and actually saved some life's pulling of this heroic feet of flying. My prayers go out to all families.
Feat. Not feet.
Saved lives but their own
Sad
@@AuH2O really???????
@@KiwiKiwi902feud!
@@KiwiKiwi902proper diction is necessary for clear communication. The dumbing down of society is already prevalent enough.
100% Agree. It was Shot Down.
Many thanks for shout out!
Stay Awesome, thanks for your videos!
It's probably a stupid question, but who do u think shot it down sir?
Thanks Denys for your hard work covering your part of the world!
@jamierace1832 Ukraine or US backed militias. It's definitely not Russia as half the passengers were Russian and Putin sent aide and released one of the first statements
@@jamierace1832 Russia
Who shot it down ?
I'm a former Air Astana 190 pilot, landed at Aktau many times. The jet has a FBW tail, but there are cables for the ailerons that will control them if hydraulic power is lost. Looks like they lost control of the ailerons by the end. I have 5,500 hours on these.
@@SimonWallwork cables most likely run along rear spar of wing. They might have got damaged and failed unfortunately.
Can you confirm the Stall Speed of the E190 in a clean configuration? Based on video evidence, they've flown around 175 kn ground speed shortly after the right wing started to drop in the end.
That is correct (I am more familiar with the 175). I do believe all the E Jets are built with a hydraulic assisted cable driven aileron and everything else is fly-by-wire.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Spoilers are always hydraulically actuated and have no cable backup, so they would have only the main ailerons, which looks like it wasn't enough.
Aren’t the actual actuators still hydraulic though? And regardless of flight controls, I’m assuming all three hydraulic systems run into/near the APU anyways?
In one video from inside the airplane you can hear a flight attendant telling the passengers to remain seated and remain calm. " Everything will be alright " , she's heard saying. ..........For some reason that brought tears to my eyes. RIP to all involved.
😪 - RIP to the Deceased, my condolences to their families and friends. May the survivors recover fully.
that's what everyone around Putin says as they fall.
Yes. She said everybody please remain silent. 20 people please move to front side of the plane. Please do not stand in the aisle. It is dangerous. Everything will be all right. Please follow the safety instructions. Please remain seated.... Unfortunately her father told to azerbaijan media that he got a call from AZAL and they told him that she didnt survive the flight.
@@marqsee7948 This was done by Ukraine
The pilots of this flight are every bit the same heroes as Al Haynes and his crew. The fact that anyone survived if a tribute to their efforts. God bless them.
After what this aircraft suffered, pilots did what they could and honestly performed as best as they could!
Being shot down on Christmas Day? What a nasty world we now live in.
Not that it matters that much, but for Russians, Christmas is the 7th of January, and they shot a plane from a muslim country on his way to a muslim region of Russia...
Russian mir.
In fact, not a problem, it's not christmas day in Russia
There's no ceasefire in the first place. Think it's Russia? They're the first one to send aid 😂
Pre-Christmas. An original pagan holiday.
Post soviet states that have the closest ties to Russia all celebrate Christmas on the 31st/1st of Jan. And the Orthodox church on the 7th of Jan.
But close enough if you try to down a few passenger jets :(
The pilot did well on minimising the casualties. Blessed the star of this tragedy.
Video by a passenger inside the aircraft prior to the crash indicated numerous casualties and fatalities due to shrapnel.
Thanks for posting that information.
😮😢 I did not see that video 😢
That sounds pretty unlikely considering almost all of the shrapnel damage is concentrated on the tail surfaces. Also, half of the occupants survived so basically pretty much everyone in the rear section of the fuselage. All of the casualties were most likely in the obliterated forward half of the aircraft so if somehow some shrapnel got to any of them, it didn't make any difference to the outcome.
When you see how hard it crashes, and the fireball, I'm amazed that anyone survived.
RIP to those who didn't.
And yet most news agencies are still running with a bird strike story
They are just doing what they are paid to do.
well they have difficultys getting basic facts right, so dont exoect anything
@@MyGoogleUA-cam You are a mark.
birds is what the ruzzian av authority published (, very soon afte)
you can check with vlad vladimirovitch putler if that is true
@thgjw63 Close. I'm a Marcus.
Thanks for the speedy update! Dangerous area to be flying over.
Imagine if we had freedom of the press with TWA800. It looked the same.
No it didn’t.
anywhere Putin has stained is a danger to humanity.
Mh 17 and now this one.
Why is this a dangerous area?
(It's the Caspian - nowwhere near Ukraine)
The pilots did all they could and saved a lot of passengers
Euronews reports that "surviving passengers heard an explosion followed by what looked like shrapnel hitting the plane, and entering the fuselage".
"Therefore it can be concluded that an exceptionaly sturdy bird hit the plane"
The first video I watched of this earlier today reminded me immediately of the other flight you mentioned. This crew were fighting the same type of battle. Their actions today saved lives. This crew are heroes.
How the hell the crew got that aircraft across the Caspian Sea is beyond me. Truly valiant effort.
I don't know how long it took to lose all the hydraulic fluid, but they could have had more control earlier in the period after the missile strike, makes you wonder if they could have chosen a closer landing spot maybe they could have had a better chance?
Don't suppose there was much available though due to the mountainous region and they perceived a safer place would be outside of Russia/Chechnya.
@@nickmaclachlan5178 Exactly. They were just shot at by Russian Air Defence. I surely do not blaim them for trying to land outside of Russia. They must have feared to be "falling out of a window" in case they would succed a landing in Russia.
@@nickmaclachlan5178 My guess is the oscillations began shortly after the "strike" like within a few minutes. The crew were likely still trying to figure out what happened when they found the plane out of control. They controlled it well enough to keep it from crashing all the way until time to "land." Heroic effort by the crew.
Lets acknowledge just how spectacular of a job these pilots did with the hand that was dealt them. Talk about having the most limited options with the best possible outcome all things considered! RIP to all lives lost!
Despite incredible efforts from the crew to control an aircraft with no hydraulics they couldn’t reach the runway. Still they managed to save the life of some of the passengers.
I’m just a regular passenger. I saw eyewitness video of the last minutes of the flight and I’ve watched enough Blancolirio videos to recognize that the pilots were struggling to control the aircraft due to a hydraulic problem. I’m shocked to learn that the root cause was that the aircraft was shot down. Those pilots are heroes. If they had tried to return to Baku, there probably would have been no survivors and multiple casualties on the ground. I’ve watched Denys’ video and it is excellent. So much for peace on earth, eh?
Juan, thanks for your take on this sad Christmas tragedy.
Glad that there were so many survivors.
The pilot's efforts were heroic.
Well.. It's not birds now is it?
Maybe heavily armed ones.....................
The initial reports from Russian authorities "suggested" bird strikes. However the video and photo evidence posted on social media suggests otherwise. The only way this could be a bird strike was if the birds were full of lead
very angry birds
Birds don't do that dmg cmon now 😂
I can’t believe they’re still reporting that BS
I was very curious because Embraer jets don’t just crash and haven’t had any major crashes with this airframe as far as I remember.
The last incident this manufacturer had was with Pergozins plane……
And Russia immediately cut up and buried the wreckage.
The Manufacturer called Russia to start an investigation and were literally told “Don’t Bother” and were hung up on.
Their stock went up a few percent points too because everyone knew that was not the manufacturers fault in that case.
Let me tell you Embra will investigate the heck out of this crash.
That tail though does not look like rocks just hit it on impact….. to many holes…😢
@ agreed 👍🏻
@@equarg Bird strike, comrade, birds at 33,000 ft have tungsten beaks.
It was shot down.
It appears that shrapnel damaged the rudder controls and/or possibly the horizontal elevator(s). They didn't experience a "bird strike." This was a loss of aircraft control, like the tail explosion on Japan Airlines Flight 123 or the engine/fan blade loss on United Airlines Flight 232 that severed controls. This aircraft was experiencing the same up and down "phugoid cycles."
You were able to discern this from the video? My god you’re a genius.
Those pilots did a very impressive job of controlling that plane with just two engines. They very nearly pulled off that landing but it was doomed because of the high speed required with no flaps. But they nearly pulled off the impossible. Sympathies to all concerned.
Looked so similar to Souix City…
I found another video that pans along the side of the fuselage from the tail forward towards the severed end, and there are several more holes visible all the way up to what remains of the left wing rear fairing. Helps to illustrate why a life vest was hit inside the cabin.
Ah, I was waiting for this!
There is also video of the opposite side of the tail section showing the exit holes where the edges are bent outwards. What is shown in this video are the entry holes with edges bent inward.
My heart goes out to the pilots and crew who worked so hard to protect the souls in their care, as well as the souls on the ground. Let's hold their loved ones in our prayers. We might also want to remember the soldiers who made this horrific mistake; they must, somewhere in their soul, feel just awful even though they did not mean to hurt innocent people.
The ailerons are the only non-fly by wire flight control system in the E-jet 170/190 series
4:51 Actually it _is_ the accident aircraft, but on earlier footage of course: 4K-AZ65.
Many thanks Juan for another quick report, our thoughts are with all those affected.
Indeed.
After searching the comments once more I see it had been acknowledged already.
Loved flying on the 190, what a strong little airplane. 😢
Good point Juan, i analised too this morning the track in FR24 and you can see that E190 startings loose control over the caspian sea, heading and airspeed, we know exactly what happen when hidraulic lines fail.
analyzed
@Lauren-vd4qe *analysed
@@jamieflame01 both are correct, depending upon American English or British English versions.
@@jamieflame01
... and 'lose'
There is pitiable spelling in so many comments - usually in the Dunning-Kruger bunch.
@@MrSnout5 my google only shows my version as correct hmmm. ive never seen it spelled any different
Saw the videos, the plane was rising then dropping multiple times as a result of loss of elevator controls the pilot was using the engines to maintain directional somewhat control over the crippled jet.
Prayers and condolences to all families involved
Have been waiting for you to weigh in on today's crash. The video of the pilots fighting to control the plane for the last two minutes before the crash breaks my heart. They are heroes. The quick response by Russia, saying this was acrash due to weather, followed by characterizing the emergency was due to a bird strike, made me hope that this was not what it indeed turned out to be.
Ahh, I was waiting for Juan to make a video! And here it is! Thank you, Juan, and a merry Christmas to you. :)
where ever they are Orville and Wilbur came to attention as these folks passed into history and said "there walks an aviator" .
the courage of the crew and calm of the passengers is amazing. the guy reciting the call to faith of his religion almost brings tears.
I have very little doubt that this aircraft was indeed shot down. Denys made a fantastic video explaining it as you have linked. I thought his video style reminded me a lot of your own style. I happen to watch his other channels but the algorithm recommended me his Pilot Blog channel video on this incident. I think he did a fantastic job giving realistic and probable explanations to this crash. Thankfully out of this tragedy some were able to survive and the crash site is in a country that will respect international investigation processes. For the families of those who are lost I am almost certain that there will be an answer as to what happened in due time. May those who became victims find the justice and honesty they deserve.
Let’s hope so but don’t hold your breath. When MH17 was shot down the Russians weren’t allowed to examine the wreckage and it was all cleared away…
Have been waiting all day for your official report to come in
Same.
Juan, I've checked your channel earlier today to see if you already had a video on this.
Glad to see I've caught it 34 minutes after you've uploaded it.
Such a sad and needless loss of life. Brings back the sad memory of Korean 007 in 1983. It's too bad that civilians now are more and more becoming collateral damage. Rest in peace to the courageous pilots who fought till the end and sacrificed themselves to save as many passengers as they could.
MH17 seems a more obvious parallel, shot down just a few hundred miles from where this went down.
It's not like ka 007 at all.
007 was air to air among other differences.
@@melted_cheetah You miss the point. The similarity is RUSSIA shot down both airliners.
@@HiNickCares You miss the point.. Who shot down both airliners?
Thanks for working Christmas to bring is this important information. Things keep getting more deadly all over that region.
he's doing it for views and thus $. don't assume he's doing it for you, he's not.
Whats been going on i Paris today? Three Paris originating transatlantic flights all turned back less than an hour into their flights.
😮
🚀🚀🚀
Which ones ? Weather is overcast but much calmer than Sunday and Monday, where winds were quite high and big gusts.
😮
@ I think it was a couple of AF and one Air Caribes. From both Paris airports, and all turned back just after leaving the French mainland.
When I first saw the video, it resembled so much of the flying behavior of the JAL123 and wondered if it had hydraulic problem as well. My heart goes out to those on board. It must have been a terrifying.
Excellent analysis. Thank you!
Thank you Juan for your view!
Absolutely agreeing with you after seeing the first images of the fuselage.
The Embraers have such a stellar safety record.
It seems like it was shot down by a missile.
That´s right in my country the only one accident was a pilot error landing through a heavy rain in SKMR on 2007.
Unfortunately it happens to the best of them. I’m not a Boeing fan (sorry Juan!) but the 777 has a stellar safety record that was massively impacted by MH370 and MH17 (the other Russian shoot down incident) in close succession. Neither were a knock on the aircraft, but so many lives lost nonetheless.
Considering how it held up after a ballistic attack it's pretty safe
@@mipmipmipmipmip-v5xmanpads have a pretty small warhead. The damage seems about right. Still impressive structural stability tho 👍🏻
Knowing how close Kazakhstan and Russia are, I think it’s inevitable that they will cover this up and say “the holes were from birds traveling at supersonic speeds”
I wouldn't be surprised if agents of Russia are at the crash site looking for the flight recorders just to ensure this vital evidence doesn't get found by crash investigators.
I think the Russia - Kazakhstan relations are less close than Moscow would wish. It is inevitable that the Russians will *try* to cover it up - how successful they are remains to be seen. I hope the Kazakhs hold true.
I do think that same hope is the reason those pilots fought that plane all the way back across the Caspian. All honor and respect to them.
Agree.
I was waiting for your valuable video on this, and also thanks for mentioning Dennis! Merry Christmas, Juan!
Merry Christmas, Juan (and your family). Thank you for all your educational information.
Estaba esperando tus impresiones sobre el accidente, no podían ser más exactas, gracias
I was hoping you would do a video on this. Thank you!
Waiting for this one from Juan. Watching people argue and insult each other on other news videos comments. Just figured I’d wait for the experts to weigh in.
Your pic of the access panel IS of the accident a/c, 4K-AZ65.
He knows that. He was referring to the previous picture of the trim indicator on another similar plane.
Thanks. 'Before the accident' I should have said...
@@threadripper979 Roger.
Those pilots were really trying. Edited to add thanks for getting this out so quickly
You took the words right out of my mouth, I thought it was like the Sioux City one when I first watched the video before this morning.
Can’t we all just get along one freakin day of the year?
Maybe but we could never agree on the same day😂
Everyone would get along fine if international borders were respected...This is all yet again on Russia...& they simply do not care.
@@_Ben4810 You mean like Turkey's occupation of Cyprus since the 70s?
They're now members of the EU whilst continuing to occupy that territory with military assets.
@@_Ben4810 Oh yeah, everyone else is respecting "international borders" (as if that was even a agreed upon thing in many cases), it's only Russia that ever violated them...
@@_Ben4810 All on Ukraine, you mean: they're the ones who refuse to negotiate and were attacking Russia in that area at the time.
Great analysis once again Juan
I wonder if they went to Kazakhstan as Russia is not doing crash investigations at the moment.
The true mystery is what happened over Grozny. Traffic control probably did something...or localizer was switched off.
Just a guess based on the video and the shrapnel damage to the tail, looks like they lost elavotor control and were trying to control the plane with pitch trim.
engine thrust
We can be heroes, just for one day!
True heroes, the pilots
That Denis part? He's a complete tool.
Commercial aircraft should not be in a war zone. Especially one that has GPS being jammed.
Baku is not really a war zone..
@@rkan2 Chechnya is in the zone of frequent drone strikes from Ukraine.
Should've close the airspace ngl
Do you even know where the Caspian Sea is...?
Maybe take a few minutes to look at a map.
@@cerealport2726 this plane was flying to Russia through the mountains. The person in the first comment wrote everything correctly.
Thanks for showing this
was waiting for this video.
Glad to hear you commenting on this. You're one of the few people I'd believe when reporting on this.
I cant think of a more terrifying situation for everyone involved.
Small correction, with left ailerons (right turn), you won’t get left spoilers, you’ll get spoilers on the right wing.
That pic shows the aircraft stalling the right wing, so Juan is correct. The pilots would have been trying to get that left wing down to keep level so there should have been left spoilers up.
Merry Christmas Juan to you Jenny and the Family.
Incredible piloting to keep it up that long and to save so many lives.
Heartbreaking! And, infuriating. Can't imagine how hard the pilots were working to make it in safely. 😢
The sad thing is that after the United accident, as well as a very similar case where a DHL A300 was hit by a missile in Baghdad, NASA determined that it would be possible to implement software that uses only engine thrust to controll the plane normally... yet, the regulators to this day don't require this software due to the "low likelihood" of such an incident...
It might be able to maintain directional control for nonmaneuvering flight, but what it's *not* going to do, is permit a controlled landing. No amount of differential thrust control will allow you to come in to land at an acceptable speed, because if you have no elevator (or elevator trim) control or flaps, the only way to keep the nose from dropping is to keep the aircraft fast.
Thank you very much for this explanation. It seems to be plain clear now what happened. Thank you very much, too, for mentioning Denys, he did a very convincing clarification what happened.
My condolences to the families and friends of the deceased. May the survivors recover fully.
Interesting that the main stream media (major news outlets) going with the story that the aircraft hit a flock a birds. Those pictures in the video clearly shows it wasn't a bird strike. Prayers to the families.
but not in the news reports. They're still going with the 'possible bird strike' until they get verification. Not everybody can verify immediate reports instantly.
wow i didn't think something like that could be survivable when i saw the crash video and to find out it was shot down, its even more shocking people lived. so tired of evil people spreading pain and suffering to others.
The Two Elevators have 2 PCUs each (4 in total) powered by HYD SYS 1, 2 and 3. If they lost all the HYD SYS (1+2+3) things got really ugly.
Thank you for prompt answers, the news in Finland told us it was a birdstrike 😂
A flock of birds, flying at FL330, with tungsten beaks!
German News here said the same for a while but it seems they are changing their narrative now 😂
Russia propaganda.
@@georgobergfell Indeed. There was no chance from the beginning that this would be a bird strike, but I thought at first on a technical failure of the flight controls. That the aircraft had problems with its flight controls was obvious when the first video´s about its crash appeared in the net.
Who fired the missile?
Who could that be... 😂
Russia air defence
Lot of propaganda on that question. Very little actual evidence.
@@AliKenan-bc1huWhere's your evidence of this? Very serious accusation there.
Russian air defense mistaking the plane as a Ukrainian drone, most likely.
Senseless and heartbreaking 💔 RIP
So seems to be a repeat of MH17.
Was waiting to see what you thought. Thanks for this
Thanks for the shout out to Denys. He has been doing a great job reporting for the past 3 years.
Indeed.
Watched his take on things first, good guy, well explained.
Who shot this aircraft down and why?
Someone on the passenger list hd a price on their hear evidently
The upload that i was looking for.
@MentourPilot has a video about a maintenance failure that had an E-190's ailerons working opposite and cross-purposes to the controls & the flight spoilers.
Very different issue but discusses the aircraft flight controls.
Titled: "Runaway AIRCRAFT! This Aircraft Flew TWO HOURS Without CONTROLS!"
Hi thanks , you always with a very wise knowledge in aviation. 👍
Good job as always, Juan. It's so good to know we can get the straight information from you. Thanks!
That up an down reminds me of Japan airlines 747 aft bulkhead blowout,,,up an down until finally,,DC10 even,,,similar,,
tHAnks Juan...was waiting for this...
And nothing will be done about it. This is sick.
Was anything done when the US shot down Iran Air 655?
@@858BillNope
It will probably be blamed on Russia like MH17.....the real culprit was Ukraine.
What is supposed to be done about it? I'm just curious.
Who did it...?
Surely to do something, you need to find the cause, and the culprit, right?
Or are you just happy to blame a country you probably cant point to on a map, but that you've been taught to hate for reasons you can't explain?
Something else is going on here: Baku to Grozny (approx. 480 km, heading NW) but now the aircraft has an emergency and is travelling East and crashes 440 km from destination Grozny (and 385 km from Baku) having travelled at least half way to destination Grozny as shown by the first part of the flight tracking. Of course there are many possibilities but the basic rules of aviation are seriously conflicted in my mind.
Ever heard of an alternate airport?
Thanks Juan, horrendous.
The saddest thing to me is the technology that could have saved them exists. There's a differential thrust tech that I think NASA came up with after United 232 happened but it was deemed too expensive.
It’s just software. No hardware changes required other than an integrated flight control computer system. Airbus has that capability. Boeing does with some of its aircraft (not the 737 however).
4:40 I've taken this video and calculated the ground speed off of it. It's around 175 kn. That's close to stall speed on a fully loaded E190 in a clean config, if I'm not mistaken. That's probably the reason why the right wing drops so sharply.
I believe that the flaps and slats were extended and this can be seen in the still image at 5:00 in your video. It's not 100% clear but you can see the deflection if you look closely.
It was a cowardly attack. My condolences to the affected families.
Who did it...? Show us the evidence.
How do you know it was deliberate - How do you know it was not a tragic mistake?
@@cerealport2726prob 🇮🇱
looks like Asian carriers are flying over this route still from Hong Kong to Europe. CX289 flying right over the spot where the place crashed, as of Dec 26th Hong Kong time
There was a Russian Il-76 landing there later on - the clean up team?
You have to ask the guys that blew the gas pipe as Biden promised.
How surprising to see Russian made aircraft in this region... almost as surprising as water being wet.
Just out of interest, do you even know where the Caspian Sea is...?
The cable aircraft MD/ DC9 series works best. You can loose all hydraulics you still have perfectly flying aircraft.
I flew the earlier same day and route as the Malaysian 17 that got shot down over Ukraine/ Russian border. When I questioned the dispatcher’s decision to route us through a war zone , The answer was that ICAO had the airspace open.
What are the chances that the cables are all missed by the shrapnel? I suppose that some part of a cable system might survive without the rest, but there's already a lot of redundancy in having 3 hydraulic systems.
So sad, regardless.
So sad. 😞