11:20. The thing with Victor is that he’s done it in a weak side in the championship and as soon as he’s been put into a better side more talent he’s immediately upped his game also. As well as performing for the Sweden NT, I understand what Ravi is saying but Gyokeres has done it in the championship for a weak side as well as the NT + playing in European competitions with Sporting he was also very good. Striking market is inflated but 70m for Victor is worth it for his age
I dropped you a DM on Twitter a few days ago Ted! I would REALLY like to hear more in regards to the hiring process in football! It feels like there is still so many gains to be made in this field - especially relative to player cost/spending. What separates teams that know how to hire well from the teams that don't? I think you have hinted to it previously in episodes that so much is based off previous relations, and that this might be setting so many teams and players back.
Enjoying the pod! 2 topics that might be interesting. 1) I just finished reading Ian Graham's book. One chapter has a discussion around some of the fallacies from "The Numbers Game" (Anderson, Sally 2013). What are some of the fallacies or situations where you have used data to overturn an opinion or line of thinking (specifically Ravi, Ted and Kim!). 2) I loved Ravi's discussion of Joao Felix and how his skillset might be a coup for Aston Villa but not quite as effective for a top UCL team (given the fee and salary). It seems that a lot of times, the group's feedback on a player is "not-quite-good-enough-for-a-top-UCL-side-but-good-for-West-Ham" tier. Zaha and Sakho at Palace, Tielemans or Mitrovic maybe. How/where do you like to draw that line and what characteristics would you like to see for a top UCL side to hit the "go button"?
FWIW I am firmly of the belief that Mitrovic could have played absolutely anywhere that could keep him from getting in trouble every single week. He just happened to end up as a mini-legend at Fulham. - TK
@@TransferFlowPodcast I'm a long-time fan as well. A frequent fantasy selection for years. Among that group, he is the one that didn't get a chance at a bigger club so feels like he's in the "we'll sadly never know" category. Maybe a good litmus test is where do you place a Brian Brobbey?
Hi all, loving the pod so far. Two questions from me. 1) Do you have any views on the potential for RAPTOR-esque models for football? OBV covers part of the event side here, but I think there is some evidence that attacker defensive value can be highly variable in a way which isn't measured by pressures. For example, the way a player threatens in behind could have a strong +EV on his team's defensive numbers. Do on-off models hold any hope of solving this in football, or is it a lost cause? 2) Chelsea's ownership thought they had found alpha in what's already a smart space. Turns out they probably didn't. Besides set pieces (and that's debatable) is there any alpha that you think is out there? Or, where do you think the most promising areas to look for alpha are? Cheers.
Birmingham City bought a whole bunch of players and smashed the League One transfer record by a factor of somewhere around 3-5x. Did they sign good players for now, the future, this league and the Championship? Love the pod and the newsletter guys!
Can you breakdown why Spurs were so leaky last year? The defensive numbers were quite high in a number of key positions last year, so would be interested to see which metrics would give away or give insight into their weak defensive performance.
Would maybe like to hear more on youth recruitment and the limitations of data for this or positions on the field you feel are the most valuable (i would assume forwards and maybe dm) but would like to hear your opinions
they are just glorified spread sheeets, the quality you get out depends on the quality you enter. nd it is always hinsight and never foresight :) you camn make your own. check out that brain kluff guy he used to make them and show folk
Would love a discussion of data in tactical analysis and how clubs use it to not only for assessing managers, but for the construction and maintenance of a broader tactical model that guides manager appointments and player recruitment. For one example, tactical analysts may wonder if Roberto De Zerbi’s ideas at Brighton or Andoni Iraola’s at Bournemouth will scale up if appointed by a top 4 Premier League team. How might data be involved in assessing what their game model is and how effective it would be at a top club? Or let’s say Eddie Howe tells Newcastle he’s taking over England at the end of the season and, as luck would have it, Simone Inzaghi has interest in succeeding him. How much can data analysis of tactical ideas help to understand player profiles suited to one tactical setup vs another to ease a big shift in tactical approach?
I asked this in the comment section of a previous pod but I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on opportunity cost in the transfer market. For example, I can get player X for a good fee/wages relative to their ability but signing them means I don't have the budget for player Y who fills a role of greater need. How do you optimise this? When, if ever, does a deal become so good that you just go for it, even if it prices you out of other top targets? Secondary question: Which metrics are most predictive of a coach's ability to make the leap to a better team/league? (I realise there are subjective, stylistic factors here too). Tertiary question: who finishes 4th in the PL this season and why? I think this is considerably harder to predict than top 3/relegation.
eah 4th is tricky.. spurs cant defend, newcastle missing some depth quality, utd poor manager, villa first time in europe for decades, brighton i cant judge at all.. sooo if they perform, maybe Chelsea.. or a dark dark horse like forest :0
@@PazLeBon Nuno's tactics are very centralising (drawish against similar strength teams) so I think Forest will end up lower-mid table barring a points deduction. Chelsea would have been clear favourites for top 4 had they kept Poch and added 2-3 players but the less said about their summer the better. United haven't strengthened enough in midfield and were awful last year (again, speaks to my point about opportunity cost that they made a huge risky long term investment in Yoro when they needed an entirely new midfield). Brighton honestly have a decent chance but they're a wildcard. Villa overperformed their metrics last season. Spurs maybe? Idk. As we've both said, there isn't a clear candidate.
Here are some topic ideas I would find really interesting: 1. Set piece breakdowns: The value of set pieces and how routines have evolved. It seems now set pieces are like NFL style “plays” rather than the old school “front post or back post” also any particular routines you like, or how to build a squad to be valuable at set pieces. 2. A series called ‘stocks’ pick some players where you expect the ‘stock’ of the player to significantly rise or fall over the next year or so and explain why. 3. Markets - which markets / leagues / regions hold the best / worst value in buying players. Are there any regions with tonnes of talent that clubs aren’t utilising? 4. The value of academies and if they provide value. Are academies now just about poaching the best players in the 15-18 range? 5. Managers Which managers do you like / dislike from a data perspective, also what data is involved in ‘ranking’ a manager. For example can you value the squad strength of a team and if a manager performs above / below the ability of the squad.
Hi here’s a question: with the women’s game getting more and more popular do the same models + analysis approaches that have been used and established for the men’s game thus far still apply? If yes what are the similarities and if not what are the differences? And as a second follow up question as someone former people who worked in that space…it seems there’s always controversy around the pay for women’s teams vs men’s teams. How do the revenue models differentiate and is women’s soccer an interesting investment vehicle for untapped value at the moment? Cheers
![IN TOUCH With Grealish's Agents • Bisseck On The RADAR • Spurs PREPARE Buonanotte Bid [UPDATE]](/img/n.gif)
Leave a comment telling us any topics you'd like to see covered and any questions you have!
11:20. The thing with Victor is that he’s done it in a weak side in the championship and as soon as he’s been put into a better side more talent he’s immediately upped his game also. As well as performing for the Sweden NT, I understand what Ravi is saying but Gyokeres has done it in the championship for a weak side as well as the NT + playing in European competitions with Sporting he was also very good. Striking market is inflated but 70m for Victor is worth it for his age
I dropped you a DM on Twitter a few days ago Ted! I would REALLY like to hear more in regards to the hiring process in football! It feels like there is still so many gains to be made in this field - especially relative to player cost/spending. What separates teams that know how to hire well from the teams that don't? I think you have hinted to it previously in episodes that so much is based off previous relations, and that this might be setting so many teams and players back.
Enjoying the pod! 2 topics that might be interesting.
1) I just finished reading Ian Graham's book. One chapter has a discussion around some of the fallacies from "The Numbers Game" (Anderson, Sally 2013). What are some of the fallacies or situations where you have used data to overturn an opinion or line of thinking (specifically Ravi, Ted and Kim!).
2) I loved Ravi's discussion of Joao Felix and how his skillset might be a coup for Aston Villa but not quite as effective for a top UCL team (given the fee and salary). It seems that a lot of times, the group's feedback on a player is "not-quite-good-enough-for-a-top-UCL-side-but-good-for-West-Ham" tier. Zaha and Sakho at Palace, Tielemans or Mitrovic maybe. How/where do you like to draw that line and what characteristics would you like to see for a top UCL side to hit the "go button"?
FWIW I am firmly of the belief that Mitrovic could have played absolutely anywhere that could keep him from getting in trouble every single week. He just happened to end up as a mini-legend at Fulham. - TK
@@TransferFlowPodcast I'm a long-time fan as well. A frequent fantasy selection for years. Among that group, he is the one that didn't get a chance at a bigger club so feels like he's in the "we'll sadly never know" category. Maybe a good litmus test is where do you place a Brian Brobbey?
Hi all, loving the pod so far.
Two questions from me.
1) Do you have any views on the potential for RAPTOR-esque models for football? OBV covers part of the event side here, but I think there is some evidence that attacker defensive value can be highly variable in a way which isn't measured by pressures. For example, the way a player threatens in behind could have a strong +EV on his team's defensive numbers. Do on-off models hold any hope of solving this in football, or is it a lost cause?
2) Chelsea's ownership thought they had found alpha in what's already a smart space. Turns out they probably didn't. Besides set pieces (and that's debatable) is there any alpha that you think is out there? Or, where do you think the most promising areas to look for alpha are? Cheers.
Birmingham City bought a whole bunch of players and smashed the League One transfer record by a factor of somewhere around 3-5x. Did they sign good players for now, the future, this league and the Championship?
Love the pod and the newsletter guys!
Can you breakdown why Spurs were so leaky last year? The defensive numbers were quite high in a number of key positions last year, so would be interested to see which metrics would give away or give insight into their weak defensive performance.
Would maybe like to hear more on youth recruitment and the limitations of data for this or positions on the field you feel are the most valuable (i would assume forwards and maybe dm) but would like to hear your opinions
Thanks for the unbiased take on Chelsea!
Thanks for watching!
Where are the betting newsletters/ pods? 1st one was great
Starts again on Friday!
Can you do a whole show or a small section on how to learn more about analytics by ourselves.
they are just glorified spread sheeets, the quality you get out depends on the quality you enter. nd it is always hinsight and never foresight :) you camn make your own. check out that brain kluff guy he used to make them and show folk
Would love a discussion of data in tactical analysis and how clubs use it to not only for assessing managers, but for the construction and maintenance of a broader tactical model that guides manager appointments and player recruitment.
For one example, tactical analysts may wonder if Roberto De Zerbi’s ideas at Brighton or Andoni Iraola’s at Bournemouth will scale up if appointed by a top 4 Premier League team. How might data be involved in assessing what their game model is and how effective it would be at a top club?
Or let’s say Eddie Howe tells Newcastle he’s taking over England at the end of the season and, as luck would have it, Simone Inzaghi has interest in succeeding him. How much can data analysis of tactical ideas help to understand player profiles suited to one tactical setup vs another to ease a big shift in tactical approach?
Sunderland are halfway through a five-year-plan trying to do a Brentford. How are they going?
TransferFlowPodcast, i turned on notifications
I asked this in the comment section of a previous pod but I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on opportunity cost in the transfer market. For example, I can get player X for a good fee/wages relative to their ability but signing them means I don't have the budget for player Y who fills a role of greater need. How do you optimise this? When, if ever, does a deal become so good that you just go for it, even if it prices you out of other top targets? Secondary question: Which metrics are most predictive of a coach's ability to make the leap to a better team/league? (I realise there are subjective, stylistic factors here too). Tertiary question: who finishes 4th in the PL this season and why? I think this is considerably harder to predict than top 3/relegation.
eah 4th is tricky.. spurs cant defend, newcastle missing some depth quality, utd poor manager, villa first time in europe for decades, brighton i cant judge at all.. sooo if they perform, maybe Chelsea.. or a dark dark horse like forest :0
@@PazLeBon Nuno's tactics are very centralising (drawish against similar strength teams) so I think Forest will end up lower-mid table barring a points deduction. Chelsea would have been clear favourites for top 4 had they kept Poch and added 2-3 players but the less said about their summer the better. United haven't strengthened enough in midfield and were awful last year (again, speaks to my point about opportunity cost that they made a huge risky long term investment in Yoro when they needed an entirely new midfield). Brighton honestly have a decent chance but they're a wildcard. Villa overperformed their metrics last season. Spurs maybe? Idk. As we've both said, there isn't a clear candidate.
Here are some topic ideas I would find really interesting:
1. Set piece breakdowns:
The value of set pieces and how routines have evolved. It seems now set pieces are like NFL style “plays” rather than the old school “front post or back post” also any particular routines you like, or how to build a squad to be valuable at set pieces.
2. A series called ‘stocks’
pick some players where you expect the ‘stock’ of the player to significantly rise or fall over the next year or so and explain why.
3. Markets - which markets / leagues / regions hold the best / worst value in buying players. Are there any regions with tonnes of talent that clubs aren’t utilising?
4. The value of academies and if they provide value. Are academies now just about poaching the best players in the 15-18 range?
5. Managers
Which managers do you like / dislike from a data perspective, also what data is involved in ‘ranking’ a manager. For example can you value the squad strength of a team and if a manager performs above / below the ability of the squad.
Hi here’s a question: with the women’s game getting more and more popular do the same models + analysis approaches that have been used and established for the men’s game thus far still apply? If yes what are the similarities and if not what are the differences?
And as a second follow up question as someone former people who worked in that space…it seems there’s always controversy around the pay for women’s teams vs men’s teams. How do the revenue models differentiate and is women’s soccer an interesting investment vehicle for untapped value at the moment? Cheers
im not sure its really growing, i doubt men will ever really be interested