Trade Tariffs Threaten Canadian Housing Market

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  • Опубліковано 4 лют 2025

КОМЕНТАРІ • 314

  • @merevial
    @merevial 17 днів тому +53

    Astronomic housing prices matched with subpar wages and ever growing taxes is a PERFECT cocktail for success.

    • @ethimself5064
      @ethimself5064 17 днів тому +1

      🤣🤣🤣

    • @jamessullenriot
      @jamessullenriot 17 днів тому +2

      @@ethimself5064 And don't forget the ridiculous issue with having to renew your mortgage every few years. A lot would have been alleviated without that. But that would mean Canadian leaders would have to think outside of the box

    • @ethimself5064
      @ethimself5064 16 днів тому +1

      @@jamessullenriot Ya I still renew my mtg. For two years I did 1 year fixed and last June I took out a new mtg over 30 years and dropped my monthly payments by literally 40%. I can keep this game up forever as my mtg. is so small. Personally I can't think of any Federal for decades that are worthy of leading any Party in Canada. When PP got elected I started to research him ending up going back about 15 years. He is as bad as JT or worse in many different ways and is certainly a chronic liar and a bad one at that. Canada ended up spilt between Far Left and Far Right, I believe due to JT and Cronies. JT is nuts as to what he has done politically and shame on the Cronies who supported him and Kudos to those who bugged out over the years. One real issue is that politicians and Parties only think ahead 4 years to get re-elected and not what is best for Canada in the longer term - And along comes JT and Cronies to really screw things up. Egad, here I go again - Hope I answered your reply

    • @universalsorrow
      @universalsorrow 16 днів тому

      nah. here’s a hot take. the cad is about to become worthless. you might as well buy real estate because anything else you hold in canada is about to get obliterated, whether that’s stocks or bonds or heck, holding cash. the cad depreciated from parity to 70 cents on the dollar, and it’s about to get a lot worse
      and before you talk about crypto, canada has one of the least crypto friendly laws in the world.
      and whether you hold usd or bitcoin or whatever it is, guess what happens as the cad keeps going down? that’s riiiiiight. the canadian government comes around and says “hey, we see that your bitcoin and usd is now more valuable relative to our collapsing currency. it’s time to collect this beautiful thing called CAPITAL GAINS TAX” jokes on you, you thought you were preserving your capital by buying good assets; jokes, we’re collecting that gain bitch
      so try as you might, there’s nothing you can do
      meanwhile, the irony is, real estate is the only asset in canada that has no capital gains tax. sure, property prices might not appreciate as fast as your currency devalues… but at the very least, you don’t get fucked on capital gains taxes
      imagine you held bitcoin and now it’s doubled in price. canada says, JOKES. that 100k gain you had!? better give us 33.3% repeating of course, in taxes! GET FUCKED

  • @nicolasbenson009
    @nicolasbenson009 16 днів тому +219

    fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.

    • @Vincent-j8u
      @Vincent-j8u 16 днів тому +3

      Contemplate shifting your investments from real estate to other dependable options such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or precious metals. Severe recessions present potential buying opportunities in the market, but it's essential to approach them cautiously due to the volatility that can provide short-term trading possibilities. While not offering financial advice, it could be prudent to consider investing, given that holding onto cash may not be ideal during this period.

    • @tatianastarcic
      @tatianastarcic 16 днів тому +2

      You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst

    • @JacobsErick-u8r
      @JacobsErick-u8r 16 днів тому +2

      nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?

    • @tatianastarcic
      @tatianastarcic 16 днів тому +2

      I have been working with ““Lisa Grace Myer”” whose expertise in portfolio diversification is unsurpassed and client-focused, I have made more profits with her guidance than I ever did when I tried navigating the markets on my own.

    • @sharonwinson-m8g
      @sharonwinson-m8g 16 днів тому +1

      I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her an outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.

  • @m.b5777
    @m.b5777 17 днів тому +64

    People don't realize how damaging it is for the broader economy when workers are paying over 50% of their income for shelter They don't have the money to spend in other sectors of the economy.

    • @Stormshfter
      @Stormshfter 17 днів тому +15

      Yup.
      Small business will continue to suffer, some will fall, some will cut jobs.
      This creates more unemployed.
      There will be no recovery as long as such a high ratio of earnings goes to shelter.

    • @TheWoodfordreserve
      @TheWoodfordreserve 17 днів тому +1

      Another factor is if you're skilled or high skilled, the USA is now an attractive option and is within reach.
      Brain drain incoming.

    • @huskavarnapunkband
      @huskavarnapunkband 17 днів тому

      Realtors and the nvestors don't care.
      They also delete comments they don't like.
      Kinda like communists

    • @zomgoose
      @zomgoose 17 днів тому +6

      Shockingly, they don't understand. The amount of ignorance is crazy.

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  17 днів тому +3

      @@m.b5777 true

  • @richardhudson1243
    @richardhudson1243 15 днів тому +125

    Great video! For 2025, it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.

    • @HoskinsShanellNicole
      @HoskinsShanellNicole 15 днів тому +1

      I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

    • @ThomasLuke-u3v
      @ThomasLuke-u3v 15 днів тому +2

      You are right! I’ve diversified my $450K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $830k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.

    • @JacobsErick-u8r
      @JacobsErick-u8r 15 днів тому +1

      Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you?

    • @ThomasLuke-u3v
      @ThomasLuke-u3v 15 днів тому +2

      Her name is “Melissa Terri Swayne” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

    • @LUCIASMITH-d1z
      @LUCIASMITH-d1z 15 днів тому +1

      I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send a mail to her and let you know how it goes.Thanks for sharing truly!

  • @Annette_Lisa
    @Annette_Lisa 17 днів тому +161

    My advice: for newbies to grow financially this year, invest. Saving is good, but investing elevates your finances. Why newbie make huge losses on trade is because investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. that will stop you from trading, this has been one of the biggest problem to new traders, l've learned this from my own experience

    • @burnsie3326
      @burnsie3326 17 днів тому

      Trading in Bitcoin now is the wisest thing to do now especially newbies beginner....

    • @StephanieMoore-oj7vz
      @StephanieMoore-oj7vz 17 днів тому

      You're right! I have lost a lot trading all by myself without a guide. It's been an uneasy ride for me. Who is your mentor please. how can i reach him i really need help in this bear market now?

    • @SandraElliot21
      @SandraElliot21 17 днів тому

      You're right! I have lost a lot trading all by myself without a guide. It's been an uneasy ride for me. Who is your mentor please. how can i reach him i really need help in this bear market now?

    • @Annette_Lisa
      @Annette_Lisa 17 днів тому

      Can't share much here, I take guidance from ‘Evelyn Infurna’ a renowned figure in her industry with over two decades of work experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.

    • @SandraElliot21
      @SandraElliot21 17 днів тому

      I searched for her complete name on the internet and located her page. I then sent an email and scheduled a meeting to converse with her; now, I'm awaiting her response.

  • @ElectronicWasteland-p2x
    @ElectronicWasteland-p2x 17 днів тому +13

    If the USA causes a major spike in Canadian unemployment, our highly speculative prices on real estate are at extremely high risk of collapsing rapidly. House-horny Canadians were willing to support these high valuations up until now by whatever means necessary, but if they don't have jobs, it doesn't matter how much they love real estate, prices are coming down hard.

    • @madankt
      @madankt 15 днів тому

      Dissolve OREA. They are simply incompetent....Greedy and recreating BIG SHORT again

  • @jamesheron2282
    @jamesheron2282 17 днів тому +20

    It’s the commodification of housing in Canada that led to speculation and price run up creating the Ponzi scheme of needing ever higher prices to sustain it. Housing should be for homes to shelter residents of Canada not for commodification due to excess greed. Greed always long term ends in corruption of good things. Canada needs less corruption of the values that made it a good country many years ago.
    We need a shake out of the greed inspired speculators with a sustainable trajectory for housing so young families can purchase a home to live and raise a family. We need to stop chasing the greed that has corrupted our values and get back to sustainable healthy and careful growth. Let’s put our wealth into our resources and our technology to grow industry and business with investment into productive assets instead of non-productive assets. Our productivity per person is what matters for our standard of living and it’s been declining rapidly as housing has bubbled up and government has become bloated. We need a complete change in how we invest in Canada!

    • @Brian-dg3gh
      @Brian-dg3gh 17 днів тому

      Speculation is what makes North America different than third world countries. You’re essentially advocating for socialism which inevitably leads to death and famine. Under capitalism some people fail, some people do well and others have way too much. Under socialism almost everyone fails and still some people have way too much.
      Stop importing more people than there are homes until supply and demand are better balanced and naturally speculation will become a higher risk and less reward.

    • @BellaBella-jw9ef
      @BellaBella-jw9ef 17 днів тому +2

      I would vote for you James if you decide to get into politics!

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      Try starting a business in Canada and I am sure you will change your mind.

    • @BellaBella-jw9ef
      @BellaBella-jw9ef 17 днів тому +1

      @@Observer168 🤣so true…. Small business has become a citizenship ticket. Whether you make a profit doesn’t matter as another business outside of the country is making a profit getting you in on the scheme.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@BellaBella-jw9ef what I mean is it’s a uphill battle owning a business in Canada and yes there are plenty of fake businesses in Canada used a fronts to bring money from offshore.

  • @northernpatriot
    @northernpatriot 17 днів тому +24

    Let’s be real. Anyone that bought at the peak or near the peak in 2022 has a lot longer to wait to break even than 3-6 years. Similar to the Calgary example you provided, I think prices will take decades to get back to those all time highs.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      What about the 85% of Canadian home owners that bought before 2020. Many landlords have owned the same homes for decades. The biggest demographic of homeowners are the boomers that bought for dirt cheap.

    • @BellaBella-jw9ef
      @BellaBella-jw9ef 17 днів тому +3

      @@Observer168they will sell into an already flooded market

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@BellaBella-jw9efnot really seeing that. Why would you sell if you bought for dirt cheap 15-20 years ago?

    • @BellaBella-jw9ef
      @BellaBella-jw9ef 17 днів тому

      @@Observer168 well…I don’t see it yet either, but I just saw on another real estate video that there were 600 more listings added to the Langley market in January and it’s not even the end of January nor the spring market. The area I just moved into in north Langley has whole blocks of townhomes empty. Brand new. All the indicators are towards bigger price drops, but who knows though? There’s so many factors and manipulations going on that we don’t know about. Like Steve, I thought the market should have crashed last year, but it didn’t…

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@BellaBella-jw9efthe brand new homes not selling is a very small fraction of the overall market. 600 is a very small number in comparison to the amount of homes owned. It’s not like we suddenly have millions of homes for sale.
      As of 2024, approximately 15.5 million homes are estimated to exist in Canada. However, the percentage of homes currently for sale is relatively low, given that inventory constraints are contributing to tight housing markets. For instance, the number of homes for sale has been constrained, with new listings in Canada declining by around 1.7% in November 2024 compared to the previous month. In addition, the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) for Canada was 58% during the same period, indicating a balanced market  .
      This shows that only a small fraction of homes are for sale at any given time, with the sales numbers reflecting a more limited supply due to factors such as high interest rates, a still-tight housing market in key regions like Ontario and British Columbia, and an increased demand driven by population growth  .

  • @jonathanhardy8683
    @jonathanhardy8683 17 днів тому +71

    My predictions for 2025:
    1) The rich will get richer.
    2) The poor will get poorer.

    • @HaydonAshurstFamily
      @HaydonAshurstFamily 17 днів тому +7

      Or:
      1. The rich will get slightly less rich
      2. The poor will get markedly poorer

    • @ivanandreevich8568
      @ivanandreevich8568 17 днів тому +1

      I'm doing my part.

    • @DummMoney-rr1fi
      @DummMoney-rr1fi 17 днів тому +2

      i'm in one of those categories

    • @CorporateShill66
      @CorporateShill66 17 днів тому +1

      I predict that this will be a very accurate prediction.

    • @Eric-lx8hp
      @Eric-lx8hp 17 днів тому +1

      3rd world country here we come

  • @TonyChev
    @TonyChev 17 днів тому +15

    Purchasing power of the Canadian dollar has declined by around 40% in the last 3 years. If you've only maintained your price, that's still a loss. Investing in Canadian real estate is like buying a Honda Civic and thinking you're going to get your money back when you sell. Smart money has left. It's just a matter of time before the dumb money goes bankrupt and this implodes. The Greater Depression is at hand!

  • @Michaelme-de8zz
    @Michaelme-de8zz 18 днів тому +28

    OK.... bottom line is prepare to tighten your belts, PAY your Debts, and forget whatever you think anything is worth.... because it ain't !

    • @donm2067
      @donm2067 18 днів тому +5

      What about muh real estate?
      Also my 1996 cavalier with 378,000km is worth 12k$ all day long

    • @justadildeau
      @justadildeau 17 днів тому +2

      ​@@donm2067😂 lol on both points

    • @milhouse8166
      @milhouse8166 17 днів тому +1

      Except for stuff having tariffs put on it

    • @huskavarnapunkband
      @huskavarnapunkband 17 днів тому

      Did you guys know these UA-camrs delete comments they don't agree with.
      Kinda like communists

    • @LisaSmith-i9c
      @LisaSmith-i9c 16 днів тому +1

      Hey, some of those cavaliers are still out there kicking, okay.LOLOLOL
      Calgary so many owners took townhomes off of the market before Christmas after reducing and not getting what they wanted now I see them listed for more they originally listed for prior to taking it off…I know we are going to be going into spring market soon enough but this is ridiculous….one has also been listed for rent for months and cannot rent it out for what he wants even….just holding out and meanwhile he likely could have sold for less instead of holding out for extreme pricing and still turned a good profit because it was purchased far before the boom….but still hoping for last years boom and I don’t think it’s happening this year….maybe, just maybe but so many removed and didn’t sell and those are all going to go back to market our landlord is selling along with the landlord across from us this complex already has so many on market right now as is. I’m just hoping in fact we aren’t seeing a rebound with last spring pricing and in fact prices do come down because we made a choice to keep renting this year instead of panicking buying like we were going to.

  • @dimitrychekov1136
    @dimitrychekov1136 17 днів тому +7

    When will pre-con destruction bleed into low-rise?
    1. Investors used HELOCS for pre-con downpayments.
    2. Condo owners can't sell their units (without significant discounts). Less move-up demand.

  • @quantifiablyqorrect2905
    @quantifiablyqorrect2905 17 днів тому +25

    Recession? Its been a recessio for years in canada, now itll be a depression, especially when the millions of immigrants have to go home

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому +5

      @@quantifiablyqorrect2905 most will refuse to leave. The average annual deportation is 10,000 a year. I doubt the government will enforce anything.

    • @dennissanderson5331
      @dennissanderson5331 17 днів тому +3

      ​@@Observer168And these millions of immigrants are going to have cash jobs?

    • @foralex100
      @foralex100 17 днів тому

      @@dennissanderson5331uber eats is as good as cash

    • @Carolinapetroska
      @Carolinapetroska 17 днів тому +1

      Yeah Trudo kicked all the foreigners out , directly or indirectly.

  • @mogulrider
    @mogulrider 17 днів тому +12

    One doesn't buy in a period of uncertainty. One waits for clear air. .... you are welcome

    • @donm2067
      @donm2067 17 днів тому

      Got any predictions for 2025? Or any good reads/documentaries?
      The great taking was a good one from last year.
      Thanks for the recommendations.

    • @mogulrider
      @mogulrider 17 днів тому

      @@donm2067 On Nov 8th, 2021 I advised everyone to sell their excess assets. Few did, in fact, they laughed. Which is fine. I need these folks to be on the other side of my trades. Without them I don't buy cheap assets. I advise anyone to consider waiting until 2026-27. I originally had this timing band. However, there are very large cycle things now happening at the same time. It's the budsiness cycle.. Nothign more. Watch Steve Hanke interviews. He's a monetarist. That matters.
      Pay down debt and don't take on new debt unless it's critical to your life. Horde cash. I'm a trader so I trade the index game in front of me. I'm 90% cash. Been through 5 cycles now nothing changes just the faces.

    • @peterfets4799
      @peterfets4799 17 днів тому

      Unless you have cash, I see in GTA. People picking off "ma and pa" investors on condos, houses and Airbnb and most financially exposed

    • @mogulrider
      @mogulrider 17 днів тому

      @@peterfets4799 catching falling knives is for mugs. There are far better investments that are liquid, untaxed like real estate and their rents not falling. Being liquid in this environment is the key to it all.
      There is no bottom until every spec is flopping on the floor and bank owned are the bulk of listings. We are a long way from that. You are looking at the Japanification of Canada. I originally thought 2026-27 would be the bottom I do not believe that will be the case. It looks more and more like a 10-20yr drawdown...

    • @mogulrider
      @mogulrider 17 днів тому

      @@donm2067 Pray, I'm wrong. I do...

  • @SeemaSaleh-t7v
    @SeemaSaleh-t7v 16 днів тому

    You are the best man with honest, unbiased reviews on 🇨🇦 housing market. Take care

  • @abdelkabirkahlaouy3034
    @abdelkabirkahlaouy3034 16 днів тому

    Thank you that was helpful analysis

  • @silver-en7kl
    @silver-en7kl 17 днів тому +8

    I’m seeing new builds on Vancouver island sit for over a year now. 2 new homes in Courtenay sitting for a year with no sale. The builder has probably dropped to his bottom line (which by now is barely getting his investment back out after all that work….a waste of work and time). The margins on new builds are much thinner than the normie public realizes. Most people wouldn’t get out of bed for the high risk and pittance u make as a builder. The economy is collapsing, this will be the worst economic depression in the history of mankind.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      Just another interest rate cycle, hope things improve after the rate cuts

    • @silver-en7kl
      @silver-en7kl 17 днів тому +3

      @ after the rate cuts we will see hyperinflation. Gold has gone up from $2400 to $4000 in the past 2 years and have u been grocery shopping lately? Our dollar and more importantly, the USA dollar are at the end of their buying power lives. Brace for impact.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@silver-en7kl no way were will see hyperinflation in a recession. It doesn’t work like that.

    • @silver-en7kl
      @silver-en7kl 17 днів тому

      @ you’re missing an important piece of the puzzle. The eastern powers are dismissing the USA dollar. Nobody is buying the USA t bills anymore. There are a couple buyers who still print money to buy the debt bonds and that’s the uk, Canada, Australia. China has stopped buying t bills and so has Japan in favour of buying physical gold instead. There will be a hyper inflationary period quickly turning to a stagflation period. This is where we will see the price of commodities skyrocket while the price of non essential goods drops off a cliff. Food is not getting cheaper just because the economy is tanking, but u might get a good deal on a flat screen tv. Most people can’t see what’s coming because our propaganda news is lying to u about how inflation has dropped to 2%. It’s time to point out the elephant in the room……our dollar has been dismissed.

    • @citizenprotection
      @citizenprotection 17 днів тому +1

      @@silver-en7kl I haven’t had a steak in like a year. One two pack steaks is 80 bucks.

  • @BrentsTreehouse
    @BrentsTreehouse 17 днів тому +3

    If it reduces prices substantially, I'm in favor even though we already own. No reason. House prices should be so high relative to incomes.

  • @silversurfer8237
    @silversurfer8237 18 днів тому +2

    Great content. Downside risks greatly overshadow possible upside surprises.

    • @DJRS2178
      @DJRS2178 17 днів тому

      Delusion. There are 0 reasons for prices to move up, short of a disaster like California. 0.

  • @nickzivs
    @nickzivs 17 днів тому +4

    If you believe that things are rough right now, then get ready for the next several decades of aggressive monetary debasement in an attempt to rein in global debt in nominal terms. That’s unfortunately what we’ve been experiencing and will continue to experience until the liability can pencil against the asset and we have a shit ton of unproductive liability baked in the cake 😢

  • @bull6950
    @bull6950 15 днів тому

    Well explained

  • @deanknowlton
    @deanknowlton 17 днів тому

    Great perspective, Steve! Thank you. There are a couple of takeaways that resonated with me. When hearing broad figures on Canadian real estate, we need to recognize the different markets and products within a market with further distinctions. Ultimately we need to do what is right at the time given personal and local market situations. While it’s important to keep our heads out of the sand, we often need to turn down the noise.

  • @Pseudonymoniae
    @Pseudonymoniae 17 днів тому +1

    The be fair Steve, after accounting for the inflation since 2020, home prices are down close to 30% since the peak of 2021 -- certainly Canada wide, even if some markets faired better.

  • @bjames159
    @bjames159 17 днів тому

    Thanks for your balanced analysis, Steve. It's scary to me that the minister implied that the government / central bankers are prepared to start massively dropping rates again and/or start up the QE to combat the impending tariff fiasco. Here's to hoping that things don't escalate too far.

  • @chincey13
    @chincey13 11 днів тому

    Canadian RE has got to be some of the funniest content on the internet.

  • @AmolGharat
    @AmolGharat 18 днів тому +20

    You spelled depression wrong 😂

  • @heathere9240
    @heathere9240 17 днів тому +1

    Yes, yes and yes.
    But, please, remember how much we, Canada, provide to the United States.
    Without our water, hydro electricity and gas, New York and California (only 2 examples) would flounder.
    Yes, agree with your take on the Greater Vancouver housing market; however, in cities surrounding Vancouver, especially in the Fraser Valley housing values are higher for the past 6 years.

  • @guanzhouzhu7525
    @guanzhouzhu7525 3 дні тому

    Tariffs? Fine. Get the goods sold inside Canada and reduce the prices. This could be an opportunity for Canada to recover.

  • @AshrafulAlam-zw1xw
    @AshrafulAlam-zw1xw 17 днів тому +2

    Are you afraid to call it a crash?

  • @parthppatel28
    @parthppatel28 11 днів тому

    I used to believe that house prices will stay flat BUT NOW I am convinced that houses WILL CORRECT to right evaluations meeting fundamental values. We're going to see North American trade Union.

  • @highplains66
    @highplains66 8 днів тому

    the Vancouver housing market has survived everything, a local recession is nothing.

  • @Victor-herman1971
    @Victor-herman1971 17 днів тому +2

    QT is ending soon at the BOC, and they said they’re going to purchase specific maturities in the secondary market to “ensure liquidity.” You think they’ll target the 5-year and try to push them lower? Trying to prop up housing demand with lower rates?

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  17 днів тому

      @@Victor-herman1971 no just balance sheet management for now

  • @dev4statingx90
    @dev4statingx90 17 днів тому +4

    So where does one park their money? Dividend paying stocks and bonds?

    • @nickzivs
      @nickzivs 17 днів тому +1

      You don’t park your money anywhere, you manage it or more succinctly put, you have to actively invest but manage the risk on a annual basis. It’s time invested or you seek professional help that actually considers the risks rather than DCAing blindly with no consideration of risk. While doing that likely will work to mitigate some inflation losses, it’s definitely going to be mostly highs followed by lows aka volatile given the high positive correlation in most assets these days

  • @Hkhan23
    @Hkhan23 День тому

    What do you see happening with the commercial market in next few months?

  • @surprisek3918
    @surprisek3918 17 днів тому +8

    People: look at the average price of housing over the last 20-30 years. That trend line you see at the far left before prices skyrocketed? It's gonna fall down to that. What does that mean? In the major markets, several hundred thousands of dollars DROP. If you bought in the last 5 years, you bought at the worst possible time in history. We focus on trends. The Fourth Turning. Wake up. The past generation is ending. A new one is arriving. You've been told.

    • @rachelk8368
      @rachelk8368 17 днів тому +2

      I agree. What the past gave to todays market won’t be repeated- global peak population, Chinese money, low interest rates

    • @nickzivs
      @nickzivs 17 днів тому

      Maybe. Maybe monetary debasement is the game plan in which case if you read about similar periods in history, once you go through the rebalancing in supply/demand, the debasement lifts all tides in nominal terms. In real terms? Depends on the sentiment behind the asset …

  • @olgatempel3466
    @olgatempel3466 17 днів тому +4

    It is not really threaten , it is more like correction.......an outside force drove the market to a place where the average Canadian cant afford a house ..without destroying the equity their parents built up ..or themselves..(help with down payments).....
    Only a small percentage of Canadians bought in the last 10 years ....but realtors are trying to save the market to fill their pockets at the expense of future generations of canadians....wages are not going up

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      Yes only a small percentage of home owners bought in the last 10 years. 90% of the homes were bought prior to 2015 and mostly owned by the boomers.

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  17 днів тому

      @@olgatempel3466 realtors don’t set prices, the market does.

  • @argeldelacruz9545
    @argeldelacruz9545 17 днів тому

    I slightly agree with you. Also seems this would be a best case scenario for Canada. Here’s hoping

  • @Burboss
    @Burboss 14 днів тому

    man... he is not only bad with logic but with math too!

  • @MichaelMacaque
    @MichaelMacaque 3 дні тому

    Feb 1 - 25% is here and canadian politicians couldn't do anything

  • @mgregorian
    @mgregorian 17 днів тому +2

    Sitting on sidelines with cash for next few months seems like a good idea.

  • @waterloojew
    @waterloojew 9 днів тому

    It's expected that Canadian unemployment will go to 10% and our economy will be in a worse state then peak covid. Canadian real estate will come down as people lose their jobs and things get progressively worse in Canada.

  • @XMG3
    @XMG3 14 днів тому

    flat home prices means losses as CAD keeps devaluing

  • @nunol1554
    @nunol1554 17 днів тому +4

    Us is not going to put tariffs on Canada, its just a way to negotiate and Canada to get something done lol

    • @Jay-nq2jl
      @Jay-nq2jl 17 днів тому +2

      I wish you were right but your not

    • @nunol1554
      @nunol1554 17 днів тому

      @@Jay-nq2jl im right you are wrong hehe

    • @nefigushki
      @nefigushki 16 днів тому

      awesome insight. You're so knowledgeable, and this "something" really explains everything.

    • @nunol1554
      @nunol1554 16 днів тому

      @@aaaaaadasjfodsfdjfbdshifb not happening

  • @ethimself5064
    @ethimself5064 17 днів тому

    In Vancouver all one needs to do is cross a street and watch the home prices deviate a staggering amount

  • @MapleCanada-w6g
    @MapleCanada-w6g 17 днів тому +2

    Canadian real estate never goes down , I swear😂

  • @Carolinapetroska
    @Carolinapetroska 17 днів тому +1

    How is that going to shape the real estate market ? It's already dead and you can't kill something that's already dead....

  • @algernon2005
    @algernon2005 17 днів тому +14

    Our townhouse doubled in price since 2015, Thornhill Woods,Vaughan ,Ontario.
    My son who us 19 now got diagnosed with depression, because he doesn't see any hope ,he told me that he never will be able to afford property in our area even in GTA , doesn't matter what level of education he is going to choose.
    Looks like only MAID gonna help( parents will be disposed to let children to be able to live in their homes) . Or multigenerational families will be a norm again

    • @abcdjhffkuggf
      @abcdjhffkuggf 17 днів тому +10

      There's no good reason to live in GTA or Vancouver area. Advise your son to seek his fortune elsewhere. Whether elsewhere in Canada, USA, or abroad.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      Every single major city in the world is unaffordable to its local people.

    • @heck0272
      @heck0272 17 днів тому

      That’s called a bubble, which is about to burst…

    • @HaydonAshurstFamily
      @HaydonAshurstFamily 17 днів тому +2

      It’s been about k burst since 2005 according to many 🙄 😂

    • @milhouse8166
      @milhouse8166 17 днів тому

      @@abcdjhffkuggf don't we have a population growth problem already though? 😕

  • @ninemoonplanet
    @ninemoonplanet 14 днів тому

    Good, lower housing prices will be a long-term benefit. Houses are NOT bank accounts. They're shelter, a place to be safe.
    Personally, condos are the equivalent of "human chicken coops". No facilities for children, no places outdoors nearby, and towers create heat islands that are dangerous in a high heat wave like that heat dome a few years ago.
    No solar, wind or other green technology for heat or cooling.
    The housing market is far overpriced.

  • @bcb777
    @bcb777 17 днів тому +2

    What the tariffs and recession hits, people will lose their jobs. Everything will go down fast.

    • @Chain987
      @Chain987 17 днів тому +1

      Masses just cannot apprehend what's coming.

  • @parthppatel28
    @parthppatel28 11 днів тому

    Canadian politicians and lobbyists made a BAD decision by concentrating on housing for economy than on Canadian resources to develop industries. Now we have US that is holding Canada by its balls and will dictate terms. But HEY, SOME Realtors think prices will go up. They say that when you wake them up from sleep. 😂😂😂

  • @ivanandreevich8568
    @ivanandreevich8568 17 днів тому +2

    So Steve in 3 years if prices are flat is there down 20% including inflation

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  17 днів тому +1

      @@ivanandreevich8568 in real terms yes. Not sure about 20% inflation…

  • @b-rare
    @b-rare 17 днів тому

    I never liked the condo investing so many negatives. It’s a gamble on price appreciation and that’s it, whereas if you put some work in you can win so many ways with real estate . bRRRR is the only way to win and you have to buy off market to get an instant wedge deal. You can barely buy off the mls and make money especially after tax. You need to wholesale

  • @ryanewoldt8809
    @ryanewoldt8809 17 днів тому

    People don't realize that income tax was started to replace tariffs with tariffs countries should be able to get rid of income tax on there working class. So 20 percent tariffs on imports may lead to higher prices but more money in your pocket and insensitive to manufacture at home no matter the country. Just saying taxes on individuals makes you a slave or at best an employee or even property of the government 🎉

  • @rachelk8368
    @rachelk8368 17 днів тому +1

    Market sounds very different in Vancouver vs Fraser valley

  • @mogulrider
    @mogulrider 17 днів тому

    Just think, being liquid, instead of being stuck in sinking real estate, means you have capital to jump on trading opportunities. Like buying Trumpcoin for $1.50 on Friday night and selling it for 66 bucks 2 days later on Sunday.
    That's liquidity....

  • @pkiskool
    @pkiskool 17 днів тому

    Prices will fall where it will fall, stay a float where it will, even grow where it can. If you bought that place in the likes of Edmonton or Peterborough 2021 and beyond, I’m sorry but you aren’t making money selling that anytime soon. If you bought something at a highly desired location with limited supply, it will still sell ok and even generate profit. I’m willing to bet there are a lot more cases that are like the former than the latter, hence the overall trend and stats would be a decline.

  • @hakimbey6270
    @hakimbey6270 17 днів тому

    I think everything its going to be fine why because we survived the pandemic for 3 years, the tariffs are no bad compare to a pandemic

  • @Carolinapetroska
    @Carolinapetroska 17 днів тому

    'people are reintering the market...' lol

  • @igorhariton3112
    @igorhariton3112 17 днів тому +3

    Data is manipulated.

  • @donm2067
    @donm2067 17 днів тому +8

    North Thompson is priced 25% above peak, barely anything sells and when it does its 100% someone who sold in the lower mainland.
    Its ridiculous, the market is a lock and nobody will come down in price because the Realtors have everyone convinced that their giving up 500k$.

    • @DJRS2178
      @DJRS2178 17 днів тому +2

      Until they are forced sellers and panic sets in. What happens to people's emotions when the stock market crashes this year and paper wealth gets a 50% cut. Higher debt levels, unemployment, savings dropping, businesses failing daily economy is horrible, Canada's largest sector housing is dead, trades workers are looking....

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      You need to understand that the biggest demographic of home owners are the boomers and those homes were probably bought for dirt cheap.

    • @silver-en7kl
      @silver-en7kl 17 днів тому

      @@DJRS2178truth, we are now entering the worst economic collapse in the history of mankind and the propaganda media is still fooling the sheep with their lies about inflation dropping.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому +2

      Bet they were bought when the homes were dirt cheap. Perhaps even people selling their parents homes after being inherited.
      Actually there’s a house on my block that’s selling for $2.2 million by a guy that inherited a home that was bought for 300k around 20 years ago. It was rented out a few times and the guy refused to drop the price. Been on and off the market multiple times.

    • @proudcanadian1837
      @proudcanadian1837 17 днів тому +1

      I would say much up there is more than 25%! I know someone in Metro vancouver sold their home for 1.3 million and then moved to vernon, where bought a home for 880k when the house across the street not a year and a half earlier sold for 465k!

  • @DanMaxe24
    @DanMaxe24 17 днів тому +1

    You are the GOAT! Clear messages, a lot of honesty. So rare these days. Keep it up!

    • @kmann5288
      @kmann5288 17 днів тому +3

      Goat? Greatest of All Time? In what context does that declaration be applicable?

    • @DanMaxe24
      @DanMaxe24 17 днів тому

      @@kmann5288if you have listened to this guy long enough you would understand. The main reason of my comment is his honesty. Saying he was wrong at times and why. Anyways, you don’t have to agree with me. What do you think about his analysis?

    • @kmann5288
      @kmann5288 17 днів тому

      @DanMaxe24 yes he is the michael Jordan of vancouver real estate. The muhammad ali of analysis, the Wayne gretzky of pre cons

    • @DanMaxe24
      @DanMaxe24 17 днів тому

      @ 🤣🤣🤣 nice trolling man. All jokes aside, if you compare Steve to other “real estate bros”, he is pretty good. It looks like you’ve had some bad experience with him. What happened?

    • @kmann5288
      @kmann5288 17 днів тому

      @DanMaxe24 never met him and have no I'll feelings. But I find your calmness and politeness to be infuriating.

  • @nickd9274
    @nickd9274 17 днів тому

    Steve what would you say the actual bid is on a new dog crate?

  • @Bobber888
    @Bobber888 16 днів тому

    Edmonton is booming

  • @JohnDoeses
    @JohnDoeses 16 днів тому

    cool

  • @BotBot-y5c
    @BotBot-y5c 17 днів тому +1

    Live with your parents for the next 3-4 years. Invest all your money in U.S growth mutual funds. Your money will grow at 12%. Buy a house after 3-4 years. You will be much better than buying now and being slave to debt.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      Doesn’t always work out like that. Bear markets can also be very painful.

    • @nefigushki
      @nefigushki 16 днів тому

      except never buy mutual funds.

  • @zoopieproulx5004
    @zoopieproulx5004 17 днів тому

    Mr
    Polievre at what age will you hike the age of eligibility for old age pension and will you cut are knew dental plan and how many job are you planning to cut in the federal goverment in Ottawa
    Please Canadian to your home work before you vote

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  17 днів тому

      @@zoopieproulx5004 old pension eligibility should absolutely be raised

  • @Observer168
    @Observer168 17 днів тому

    2020 to 2024, approximately 16.7% of all homes in Canada were bought during this five-year period. Here’s a breakdown of the total:
    • 3.67% (2020) + 4.00% (2021) + 3.00% (2022) + 2.67% (2023) + 3.33% (2024) = 16.67%
    So, about 16.7% of all homes in Canada were sold in the last five years.
    This suggests that despite the high market activity in recent years, the majority of homes in Canada remain with long-term owners or have not been sold within this short time frame.

    • @Jo-mf2vu
      @Jo-mf2vu 17 днів тому +1

      That is not bullish for house prices. When a Boomer with no mortgage and a house that is worth way more than he or she ever expected it to be decides to cash out, that person will be quicker to take the highest bid and bring down the entire price of the neighborhood. They will still do very well. There are loads of retirees and others with tons of equity that can push the sell button in a declining market and accelerate the sell-off.

    • @HaydonAshurstFamily
      @HaydonAshurstFamily 17 днів тому +1

      Don’t know about that. I think the vast majority of owners anchor to peak prices - not what they paid - and therefore resist selling for less than peak prices. I know I do this (I also know it’s not particularly rational 🤷‍♂️ )

    • @Jo-mf2vu
      @Jo-mf2vu 17 днів тому +1

      ​@HaydonAshurstFamily I agree with you, most want to wait for peak prices. But many have been waiting since fall of 2022 for their price, when it becomes clear they won't get it, they can easily sell and still tell themselves they did very well.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@Jo-mf2vuwell many people bought their homes when they were dirt cheap 20-30 years ago. Lots of homes that sit on the market are actually inherited from their parents so there’s no urgency.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@HaydonAshurstFamilyyup, many bought when the homes were super cheap. They still want top dollar and don’t mind just sitting on the homes or rent them out for a few more years.

  • @andrewmccoll1582
    @andrewmccoll1582 17 днів тому

    What about end user condos 2+ Bedroom over 800 Sq Ft) with decent maintenance fees? Everything can't be about golden egg single family homes. People (young families) can't afford those, Steve.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@andrewmccoll1582 sounds great! Maybe you should create a charity and try building them.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      You go try building affordable housing

    • @andrewmccoll1582
      @andrewmccoll1582 17 днів тому

      @Observer168 I think you missed my point

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@andrewmccoll1582 there are tons of large apartments with 3 beds or more but none are affordable. You can’t build “affordable” and stay in business especially with high land costs and development fees. That’s why I suggested you go try.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@andrewmccoll1582 there are tons of big 3 bedroom apartments but it’s impossible to build something considered affordable when cost of land, materials, construction and development fees are high.

  • @Vm19879
    @Vm19879 17 днів тому

    I m tired, man you have to understand economy. With tariff and counter tariff, big elephant is inflation and boc will increase mortgage interest rates. They will not cut it.

  • @hill4377
    @hill4377 17 днів тому +8

    You watch. In 6 month house prices will tank, and this guy will post a video discussing how it happened......
    Mark my word, housing is going to absolutely crash. Dropping $100k turns.

    • @DJRS2178
      @DJRS2178 17 днів тому +1

      100%

    • @aynrandfan7454
      @aynrandfan7454 17 днів тому

      lol you poors have been waiting for the so called crash in housing prices for decades while the rest of us who bought have made massive profits 😂 have fun renting for life LOSERS

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      Bet houses won’t tank in 6 months. Probably just go sideways for a few more years. The biggest demographic of home owners are the boomers that bought prior to 2015.

    • @rachelk8368
      @rachelk8368 17 днів тому

      I agree.
      Fraser valley is already hurting bad only a matter of time till vancouver gets hit

    • @HaydonAshurstFamily
      @HaydonAshurstFamily 17 днів тому +1

      “Mark my words”
      👍 😂

  • @yeshuapleaseprotectthechil2150
    @yeshuapleaseprotectthechil2150 14 днів тому

    Recession???
    The Great Depression.

  • @craigs1710
    @craigs1710 17 днів тому

    Inbound? It's here mate.

  • @CP-yl5bl
    @CP-yl5bl 2 дні тому

    This guy has no clue .Advising people to buy a property if you can afford ? In light of massive tariffs ? Ignore him…. And DO NOT BUY ANYTHING EXCEPT FOOD GAS AND OTHER NECESSITIES. At least for next few weeks. We have never been in this situation so just be cautious and save money. Look after your family.

  • @gimusk5667
    @gimusk5667 16 днів тому +1

    Inbound? Bruh its here 😂. Buckle up buckaroos

  • @anthonygiuliano1839
    @anthonygiuliano1839 17 днів тому +1

    Not looking good from a Tarriff perspective

  • @mirzakibria744
    @mirzakibria744 2 дні тому

    Long Live Trudeau ❤-The National Hero - Salute!!!

  • @jadejackson1509
    @jadejackson1509 12 днів тому

    lmao, thinking condo price correction wont effect sfh is such realtor cope.
    Many homes are rented top 4-10 students to pay the mortgage. You get a glut of condos at cheap prices it will effect prices for rentals in sfh which will effect valuation.

  • @USAFIRSTMAGA
    @USAFIRSTMAGA 17 днів тому +2

    As an American I thought you were referring to Vancouver Washington I had to google it learned something new about yourcountry. Tarrifs are on the way, TRUMP 🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸 make America great again!

  • @RobbyD-u1h
    @RobbyD-u1h 16 днів тому

    Hope it crashes, maybe on the rebuild we will actually build some businesses and invent some stuff instead of trading houses at the expense of the future generations. What a joke this has been.

  • @politicalofficer832
    @politicalofficer832 17 днів тому +2

    Housing crash would be great, bring those prices down

    • @nefigushki
      @nefigushki 16 днів тому +1

      oh yeah, that would be real great.. people going bankrupt, banks going bankrupt, businesses closing doors, unemployment rising.
      pure win-win.

  • @zoopieproulx5004
    @zoopieproulx5004 17 днів тому +4

    Mr Carney his a smart man. He his a tru Canadian
    He his NOT MEGA he bring a knew breath of fresh air
    Quebec and Ontario support him.DONT DO THE SAME MISTAKE LIKE AMERICANS DID
    Do your home work before voting for Pierre
    Nicole

  • @stockey
    @stockey 17 днів тому

    Depression inbound.

  • @g.a.brownetylutanic2028
    @g.a.brownetylutanic2028 3 дні тому

    Lmao 😂. De-risking now is a little late. De-risked last summer. I know you have to promote your industry. Or at least not dump on it. I’m ready to return to BC real estate in 36-48 months for the screaming deals that will avail us. As a born contrarian raised to do math as the ultimate truth teller, I could not do a podcast where I have to promote a flawed narrative. Still end of the day , you are doing good work for the economic illiterate that can’t be bothered until their ship (titanic) has hit the iceberg. It’s sad

  • @jayd6098
    @jayd6098 17 днів тому +2

    Regardless what every one think about housing. If there is job loss, people can't buy a shit regardless how much want they have.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      Most people buying million dollar homes in Vancouver don’t even have jobs in Canada. Most have sources of income in another country.

  • @stevegaspar5191
    @stevegaspar5191 17 днів тому

    Isn't it possible that to battle a recession the Bank of Canada will reduce rates to near zero again. You know as well as I know that's basically the only tool they have to fight recessions. Besides printing more money add quantitative easing. That should be good in certain parts of Canada especially Alberta as mortgage rates dip. I remember back in 2008 I had a mortgage in BC with Maple Trust where I was paying for quite a while 1/4 of 1% on my variable mortgage.

    • @stevegaspar5191
      @stevegaspar5191 17 днів тому

      I like you said recently there is a bunch of pent-up demand for housing in Canada. And it's not from temporary workers or foreign students.

  • @haythamsanad7209
    @haythamsanad7209 13 днів тому

    Your inputs are helpful but you move a lot while talking and it is uncomfortable some times to watch you specially on th tv screen and that for es me to look a way and just listen

  • @hill4377
    @hill4377 17 днів тому +3

    So house prices will not tank. 😂. Got it. Omg. 😂😂😂

    • @DJRS2178
      @DJRS2178 17 днів тому +1

      He's in so much denial.

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      Only a small percentage of home owners bought in the last 10 years. 90% of the homes were bought prior to 2015 and mostly owned by the boomers. Which means home prices will just so sideways for a few more years.

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  17 днів тому

      @@hill4377 been hearing this for 10 years now.

    • @realitysells2299
      @realitysells2299 17 днів тому

      @@saretsky Different economic climate, different conditions Steve. You're been guzzling too much of that Canadian real estate kool-aid if you can't see the potential in a trend change.

    • @saretsky
      @saretsky  17 днів тому

      @@realitysells2299 ok let’s make a friendly bet. You name the price decline, loser donates to charity

  • @fidelsalazar74
    @fidelsalazar74 17 днів тому

    All noise

  • @peterswistak7180
    @peterswistak7180 17 днів тому +1

    Buying on a falling knife 🔪...riiiiiiight ....not to mention a housing bubble like no other ...Tariffs only the last nail in the Coffin ..

    • @nefigushki
      @nefigushki 16 днів тому

      oh don't be so negative.. there are plenty of nails to follow.

  • @MauriceDeClerk
    @MauriceDeClerk 17 днів тому

    Lol, this guy's message 10 months later lol.

  • @ParveenSharma-se2fy
    @ParveenSharma-se2fy 16 днів тому

    O threats to housing narket nothing to do with terif no good news from you

  • @Observer168
    @Observer168 17 днів тому

    Rent Growth (2020 to 2024):
    • One-bedroom apartments: Increased from $2,000 in 2020 to $2,787 in 2024 (39% rise).
    • Two-bedroom apartments: Increased from $2,700 in 2020 to $3,741 in 2024 (38.6% rise).
    Real Estate Growth (2020 to 2024):
    • Average home prices in Greater Vancouver increased by 20% over the same period.
    While real estate prices grew by 20%, rents increased more sharply at 39%, reflecting affordability challenges and heightened rental demand.
    Since 2020, Vancouver’s rental prices have risen by approximately 30-40%, depending on the property type. While rents have recently dropped 7% from their peak in late 2024, they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels due to high demand, limited supply, and ongoing affordability challenges .

    • @Jo-mf2vu
      @Jo-mf2vu 17 днів тому

      This is a perfect description of a bubble.

    • @HaydonAshurstFamily
      @HaydonAshurstFamily 17 днів тому

      Your comment is a perfect example of confirmation bias

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@Jo-mf2vuBill Ferguson been saying that since 2016

    • @Observer168
      @Observer168 17 днів тому

      @@HaydonAshurstFamily As of 2024, approximately 15.5 million homes are estimated to exist in Canada. However, the percentage of homes currently for sale is relatively low, given that inventory constraints are contributing to tight housing markets. For instance, the number of homes for sale has been constrained, with new listings in Canada declining by around 1.7% in November 2024 compared to the previous month. In addition, the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) for Canada was 58% during the same period, indicating a balanced market  .
      This shows that only a small fraction of homes are for sale at any given time, with the sales numbers reflecting a more limited supply due to factors such as high interest rates, a still-tight housing market in key regions like Ontario and British Columbia, and an increased demand driven by population growth  .

  • @sz4846
    @sz4846 17 днів тому

    Big Crash coming. Smart ones sold and moved out

  • @zooski151
    @zooski151 18 днів тому +1

    Steve for prime minister‼️‼️

  • @ParveenSharma-se2fy
    @ParveenSharma-se2fy 16 днів тому

    Another bull shit how much rent comming down 25 dollars all bullshit

  • @SmartDealswithJayaThakkar
    @SmartDealswithJayaThakkar 16 днів тому

    Here are my key take away from 2024 market from Trreb report. ua-cam.com/video/Zke9qrJUc-s/v-deo.html Please let me know what you think about this.

  • @smity25ca
    @smity25ca 17 днів тому +1

    Alberta 51st 🥳

  • @romeoandjuliet6522
    @romeoandjuliet6522 17 днів тому

    Canada will come on its knees I hope Trump change his Mind

  • @memenone501
    @memenone501 17 днів тому

    We could probably come through all this pretty well if we respond by cutting taxs an deregulation then focusing on investing in company's and pipelines at home. Or mabe let's fold an become American haha

  • @ChrisMCP2
    @ChrisMCP2 16 днів тому

    Cuts cuts cuts to the rate either way. QE and prices to the moon. Mark this post.