Is Our Next Storm Brewing Up?
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- Опубліковано 18 вер 2024
- Looks like a solid signal for a pronounced CAG event continues in the western Caribbean beginning this weekend. Whether or not that leads to a new named storm or more in the region remains to be seen.
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This feels like the one to watch closely if you live anywhere along the gulf, and even the east coast. A lot of model runs have shown whatever this could be, crossing over Florida and strengthening again near the Carolinas. It also looks like it's going to be massive and will have impacts for areas far away from the eye. I don't think anybody will be out of the crosshairs for at least a few days.
Holy cow, that water temperature anomaly in the North Pacific looks insane.
Mark, thank you for a great reflection on the season so far
The way I see it, every forecast model run shows a potential future storm, even it it turns out to be a completely different storm that is still several years away. I think it's helpful for people to see what storms are possible, because it's only a matter of time before they happen. Ocean heat content has increased dramatically in recent years, meaning storm X could happen sooner rather than later.
I keep seeing others talk about this Euro AI. Is that a completely different model, is it an interpretation of the Euro…what exactly is it? For what it’s worth it seems to follow the Canadian and GFS more closely
I think interpretation of the euro.
That CAG and a favorable MJO, look out. The tropics will be busy in next three weeks, and beyond.
I am seeing some clusters of clouds building up down at the Carribean so something is about to brew up 😮
Recent +9 day GFS model projection depicting 934 mb (possible Cat 5) just south of Louisiana coast
Thx Mark
Thank you Mark trends are your friends😮,
I have a question for everyone, what’s the worst case scenario for a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico?? I’m talking about any year, but what’s the highest storm surge/winds n worst location a hurricane can do, I would think Tampa with 30+ storm surge with like, 185 winds, but what’s y’all opinions??
Katrina at full strength instead of weakening ,and a few miles further west putting NO in the right front quad.
@@Daloyalfan18could the storm surge get up to 35/40 ft???
Trying to think of absolute worst case scenario so you can start preparing for the impacts?
A slow moving, high end major hurricane, coming into the northern gulf, thats pretty large.
Texas and Florida
Thanks
Welcome!
The pattern looks more like Sandy from 2012 when it comes to the weather pattern for next week. A powerful hurricane coming out of the Caribbean as a blocking high pressure develops over Canada and perhaps Greenland with a trough over the central US to possibly pull the storm up the east coast. While the placement of the trough may be a little further back to the west in comparison to Sandy it still in general is a very identical look to nearly 12 years ago when Sandy ran up the entire US east coast and ultimately made a devastating impact in the Northeast leaving the region decimated by the storm. I think some of the models are indicating that happening especially on the CMC model which I saw something like it while watching the Arcfield Weather channel. If verified, could be potentially devastating to the eastern Gulf coast, Florida, and the US east coast.
In other words, everyone from LA Eastward to Maine, top off your supplies.
@@Nadine-bv3jm It includes TX which is also increasingly possible as well. So, the entire US coastline needs to watch this is the way to put it.
great update. Pls explain what the CAG is?
Just a big area spinning of disturbed weather.. that can get a storm going.
@@canucksfan2024Too simple,the person wanted a complex scientific explanation as to what it is and how it develops.👎
@tauceti8060 well that is basically what it is.. I'm not that smart at this lol
The CAG is basically when you get a low pressure area over central america. It acts like a monsoon trough and conversion zone, as it slows down the trades in the atlantic.
So air in the western caribbean builds up and also helps to prevent the sea from cooling. Energy forms within the CAG and then splits off the main circulation over central america and will develop if conditions are right.
Its most common in early and late season when there is northern winds from the gulf but the itcz is far enough north to begin gyres like it.
Hope this explains it.
@@StormCoderWorld huge thank you. I do really appreciate it. thanks for explanation.
This will miss tampa
Maybe. Don't jinx yourself.
The 12z e members of the GFS just ran a little while ago almost every member makes a hard sharp Northeast turn into Florida euro is complete opposite😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Clarity, right? 🫤
@@hurricanetrack I just looked at the new Euro e members 12z There are a few more now than previous making that Northeast turn into Florida Like most of the GFS e-members But we know this will bounce back and forth until we get an actual low pressure forming in the Caribbean Then the models will have something to grab onto Then your hurricane operational models will start running Once we get that Hwrf- h m o n spaghetti plot will start running maybe we'll have more clarity by The Weeknd I live on the west coast of Florida I'm watching this
I don’t know what to make of this but I think this could possibly be a South Florida storm
texas about to get hammered 🤣🤣🤣
First!!! 🤣🤣🤣
And you thought your comment mattered….😮
He said a whole bunch of nothing
You’re probably right 🤣
@@hurricanetrack wait at least another 5 days so you can give a better accurate picture 😆
when i saw ur pic , sayin nothing made a whole lotta sense 😂😂😂 Crooked Joe
I hope so!! 👀
Fake news comment
😅😅😅😅😅