I have been watching this channel for a good while now so when I took out a mortgage last Autumn I decided to fix my mortgage for the whole term of 12 years at 3.9%, it did seem a tad high at the time but I thought that by doing that and following advice from channels like this one it made sense to me. I'm so glad I did because I do feel some sense of being protected now from all the nightmare of the market at the moment. I'm so glad this guy is now getting the attention he deserves cos this guy talks way way more sense than almost all the other economists out there. Well done mate.
Wow you've lucked out. My mortgage advisor put me on 2 years at 1.54% which I need to renew next October. Rang her up and she's like "oh sorry, I don't know why I did that as everyone else i put on a 5 year deal." 😡😡 although I will be fine as my mortgage payment is extremely low, so will only go up £200-£300 worse case.
I got my mortgage last year and locked for 2 years. Wish I'd done longer. But I can overpay as much as I can with no fees, so I'm just moving all my money into the mortgage. Hopefully my repayments (currently £530 a month (we had a big deposit)) will remain the same as long as we put all our extra cash into the mortgage balance.
@@hmq9052 Defiantly didn't just 'chose that product', that would be a non-advised transaction without an adviser. The person was advised to go on a two year fixed term, they didn't chose the product, they chose to accept the advice. If the product is not suitable then a complaint can be issued which can then be escalated to FOS. With a mortgage, the adviser isn't going to know what the market will do, but they should have had a discussion around short term cost over long term security before providing a recommendation. The fact the adviser doesn't know why they advised them to take out a product is quite ridiculous (it should be covered off in their suitability), as is recommending everyone else to take a 5-year term. A recommendation should be suitable for the client need.
This man talks so much sense it's unbelievable. He needs to get into politics and teach those so called politicians that the country is for all the people and not just the 1%.
This guy is an excellent communicator and teacher. Everything is simplified so your auntie can understand it. With a total leck of buzz words 👍👍 Excellent
Gary you could have kept your talent and knowledge to yourself. I can't thank you enough for breaking down and explaining economics in such a clear way I actually can understand! Please don't stop doing these as we try and navigate these times.
Hey Gary! It's heartwarming to see you with that spring in your step again. I was genuinely worried about how hard you'd obviously found making the video about the mini budget. It was heartbreaking to watch and not just because of what you were saying. The fact that you clearly care so much is really endearing and when you add that empathy to your expertise it's no shock that the videos you are producing are so powerful. I think many people struggle with understanding how much richer someone with a billion pounds is is to a "mere" millionaire till I tell them that a million seconds is 12 days and a billion is 34 years. It's usually at that point that they realise how much inequality there is in the UK and how someone like Sunak isn't their friend and never will be. I'm 56 years old and lucky enough to be relatively comfortable having had a well paid career which meant I could build on the good start I got from buying my first home at 18. The fact that my own kids don't have the opportunities I had to own their own homes breaks my heart. I will never understand how any "normal" person with children could have made their future worse by voting for Brexit or for the Tory party in any recent general election. I can't think of anything more selfish. Thank you for everything you are doing to try to reverse the direction we are heading in and to make the UK a better place for our future generations. You are a force for good and the work you are doing is definitely making a difference. x
So refreshing to hear someone talking actual sense... rather than the usual nonsense spouted by those in charge who have absolutely no idea how the majority have to live in the UK. Keep it up Gary... you are a legend 💚 And your interview with Aaron Bastani was excellent... thanku 💚
I feel so relieved I managed to get a 5 year fixed rate. My current provider wouldn't let me set up a new mortgage until 3 months before the end of the current fixed mortgage. So I found one that could do it 6 months before which was August the 1st. My gut feeling was right on this one. Food shopping yesterday and I've noticed the prices have risen sharply again. Christmas is going to bleak for alot of people especially when the bill's start landing in January.
Thank you once again. An ex Bank of England governor said on the BBC recently that taxing the rich will not get us out of this mess, but to tax the ordinary people. I just heard another BBC reporter saying the only way out of this is more austerity and higher taxes. Although difficult, the ordinary people must be aware and hold these institutions accountable.
hi Gary, I just found your channel a couple of days ago. I was totally confused about what had happened in the uk, I just couldn't understand it. But you have explained it so well. thanks so much. I feel fully educated now. I left the uk over a decade ago because back then it made no sense to me, wages were too low to cover basic life expenses like rent etc... I headed for Asia, where I found a better life standard... now I have been living in France for 6 years, I'm constantly amazed by how much funding and state help people get here compared to the uk, little things like affordable childcare, great benefits system etc etc. What I have understood now, from watching your videos, is that the only reason we have a good system in France is because of the Gillet jaune protestors. Actually the UK just needs to look across the water at how the French deal with their leaders to see how to make a change. Brits have to take to the streets and protest it's the only way. But first they need to understand what they are protesting for and the message needs to be clear to the government... I really hope your channel grows and that it develops some kind of actual movement by the people watching.
I don't normally comment on videos but it is refreshing to finally hear someone speaking like this. I found your videos today and it's a relief that someone else thinks the same. I also studied mathematics, finance and economics and never thought it made sense and due to my background didn't quite make it into the investment banking world. However, I do work with people who try to make me believe my opinions are laughable, they are all Tories and I've seen this happen during covid where everyone in my office bought a property during covid and they are all at retirement age or above. I've tried to discuss with my peers but majority don't really want to hear the truth.
Gary. Love these vids. Consider putting them across podcast services. As they’re monologues they would be perfect as an audio only podcast. Plus, loads of people don’t UA-cam - especially the older generation.
I think he should be on TikTok and instagram reels, and UA-cam shorts, the younger generation has a very short attention span and if this information could be made shorter and faster with links to the UA-cam channel it would get the message out faster to everyone.
Gary, if you were Chancellor of the Exchequer and you announced a budget, what would it look like, what would it contain? For instance, how *would* you tax wealth and the rich to claw back the money given to them in previous years: are there a number of ways it can be done? Ps I always look forward to your videos, along with Double Down News Byline Times and Novara Media. I can't get enough of them!
All this is paid for by a 1% transaction tax on goods and services, that over time could render all other taxes obsolete. This is all transactions, so interest payments are also taxed.
Gary please could you do a video explaining in detail who “the rich” are (are they for example investors and shareholders in those energy companies or executives at those energy firms etc) and exactly how the mechanisms which transfer wealth from the government to them work? I’d really like to understand in more detail. Appreciate your work and your message.
Agreed. The usual narrative in the UK is 'the rich' is someone who has more money than I have.. but don't raise my taxes... I'm sure Gary doesn't share this simplistic view but talking about 'the rich' without talking about specific policies and thresholds is all a bit abstract
For people looking for this information, he does now have a video on what would be considered rich - boiling it down, it’s basically the top 1%, those with assets greater than £3M or so at this time. But the main focus is those with assets much higher than that. So very high earners after several years would start to fall into that category, but mostly people with massive generational wealth who pay very little on it.
Hi Gary - it would be great if you could provide an update on this topic. It's so relevant to many of us and now that we have yet another Conservative government, a new budget, the so-called easing of inflation, etc., I'd love to hear your thoughts on the matter. Thank you for all your sound and direct analysis.
Great video. I completed on my house 30/09/2022. When i got my rate with Halifax 2.88% 5 years fixed in June was not happy with my rate as it seemed really high to what the rates were earlier in the year. Looking back now happy I secured a decent rate and got the property in the area i wanted. Inflation is still quite high maybe rates will go down next 1-2 years but we won't have the all time lows anymore.
@GarysEconomics I've just finished watching every video and I'd like to say thanks! Even though it's not a pleasant thought, the sheer scale of the problem may be the thing that ultimately forces a change. Keep going Gary!!
Rate your straight forward language Gary. Something uplifting about hearing , a lets face it, pretty complex subject, addressed so succinctly. Thanks amigo
Yeah because teenagers really care about it. Have you ever tried teaching finance to teenagers? News flash, they don’t care at that age!!! As I didn’t at that age
Great video Gary. Great to see a bit of stability in the past week or so but what a mess our Government has put us all in!! No doubt our new PM will put the blocks on public spending and the impact of this will hit those less well off. He has to do something to help the poorer members of our society but he won't to the correct levels. He will help his kind just as his track record shows.
Gary mate, you are a force for good and could inspire many people to help bring about the changes we need to the economy and to society. I think you should create a simple effective slogan centred around Inequality that resonates and you can then repeat ad nauseum to get through to the vast majority of people. See how "Get Brexit Done" or "Tough on Crime" worked (even though both were utter BS!). Keep up the vids mate, got yourself out there....change will come (hopefully in time!)
I don't see many ways to improve the situation other than getting your videos more traction, getting the message out to tax the rich and trickling the message into the Labour party. So here's my comment and like as a little contribution. Thanks for the video Gary.
Love your analysis Gary. I was economic historian in another life and I looked at what happened in Japan in the 30s,which was fascinatng mirror into much of what is happening now. I agree with you that inflation is potentially a major problem, and this is largely being driven by monetary factors. I think the big question Gary is what does the US do. The US has basically flooded international capital markets with USDs since Lehmans. This made it possible for the BOE and ECB to do the same. It is now drawing back that liquidity.This is the cause of the volatility in the financial markets - the Kwarteng budget fiasco, Credit Suisse etc. It is exposing weaker currencies and banks. This is going to be q particularly difficult time for emerging markets. Of course psychology is behind it, and not rational actors as neo-classical economists like to believe (even soundly capitalised banks can be affected). The IMF is partly responsible for a lot of the problems in world economies today - including a lot of the neo-liberalism behind what ultimately led to inequality and the 2008 financial crisis. But they have wisened up. They are very concerned about a crisis breaking out somewhere in the world while the US winds down its QE program, which is why they were very critical of the Kwarteng budget. My prediction: despite recent volatility, I suspect the US Fed will press on with drawing back on QE. The UK and ECB will then be forced to maintain high interest rates to avoid collapses in their currencies. I therefore think house prices will be weak and fall for the next few years. When the US has finished its QT house price rises will return to some degree - but I am not sure it will return in the way we have been used to over the last 10-20 years.
Most working class people won't be able to buy a house in this country soon. Foreign property companies are buying and finding tax loop holes. Banks are buying houses as a long term investment to rent out. I really admire you Gary for making these videos. A Billionaire on Ted Talks called Nick Hanauer said the pitch folks are coming. When I first saw His Ted talk I thought no way. Now I think we are definitely on the brink. This country is turning in to a mini Brazil. I worked over there for a short while in 1996 and thought how lucky I was to live in the UK. How things can change in a short time. I'm advising 2 of my sons to emigrate to a better country.
Austrian Economics is capitalism on acid - pretty much what Truss wanted to do I think Hayek or von Mises said it should be legal to put your baby on the market to be sold - that’s Austrian economics - sell anything - everything is a market
Brilliant. Heard about you from your guest appearance with Russell Brand. Great to see people interested in Economics of the Poor. Not a lot of money in it but a lot more interesting and relevant to people like me. Hope you get a Nobel Prize some day. :-)
Thanks Gary, great video! I saw an economist on Novara Media recently suggest that a wealth tax would be difficult to implement and would take too long. This has also come up in conversations with my mates. I wonder if that might be something you could address on a video. What would a wealth tax look like and how would it work?
That was Richard Murphy, and I thought it was an odd thing for him to say. Wealth taxes are complicated, but I can't see how that's a reason not to implement them at all.
Hi Gary, thanks for a great video. Please can you explain what you mean by all the money was given to the rich during Covid. Are you referring to business owners in general? As a small business owner I can safely say that the vast majority of the 'support' that we received was in the form of loans that we are now struggling to pay back. This in contrast to the furlough scheme that allowed workers to receive 80% of their salary for not being at work (100% for the public sector). This is something I definitely supported at the time but I do think the narrative seems to be that businesses were bailed out and given bucket loads of money, which I can say from experience is not what happened... Thanks
@@jamesburke4941 no he means big business. So most people who where furloughed got their 80% which most people would have spent on rent, mortgage, utilities, food, etc so ends up in the pockets of big business and then shareholders. However say a market trader working from home would have not been able to spend all his cash, so would have saved a good part of income.
Chris, a suggestion… do an update on this subject and why the BoE is putting up interest rates as this leaver doesn’t effect the cause of this inflation cycle 👍
Hi Gary, great video, is there any chance you'd do a "deep dive" video where you go through the numbers/data on some of this stuff to show your working? I'd like to be able to bring out data when I debate this stuff with my dad. It would be cool to learn how to analyse this stuff and look for certain markers for quality of life etc
Love your clarity ‘ we are trying to solve inequality by using a strategy that increases inequality’. I guess that either they never learn, don’t care, or actually feel pleased with themselves for creating more wealth for themselves and their mates. I feel infuriated by Rishi Sunaks sad face when we don’t agree with him as I am sure he thinks giving people a fuel allowance was a good thing. The fact that all we did was hand it on to the already wealthy companies and shareholders seems to be lost on him.
There's so much focus on what the government has done, which is obviously horrendous, and lots of analysis of why it shouldn't have been done and the effects of their decisions, but one thing I've never seen any content creators do is provide a discussion of what they would do or what should be done. I'd love to see you make a video entitled....If I was the chancellor and discuss your strategy
Great explanation. Would love to hear more about (1) the effect that restricting thbme supply of housing has had on asset prices (we have consistently built less than half the number of new homes agreed that we need, every year for at least 40 years) and (2) what you would do with the money collected from soaking the rich? How do you not end up with a huge number of people dependant on handouts? That is not going to give you back your middle class, is it? Keep up the good work. 😊
Another direct hit Gary. Throwing stones at an elephant unfortunately. We need a new government and hopefully you get a seat at the table economically.
Gary, good video. I believe that house prices may slow for a short period then carry on rising. Also believe that interest rates have little effect or no effect. Since 1950 we had 30 years of rising rates with high house price grown then 40 years of falling rates also with high house price growth. Add to that we've had two large falls in house prices 1990 & 2008 both when interest rates were falling. Currently a couple on a joint income of £80 are probably getting over £4k pay rise plus energy assistance payments which more than covers the higher mortgage charges. Its wage inflation that pushes up house prices. As wages rise mortgages get inflated away & reduce relative to income. A bigger mortgage then becomes more affordable so you can now buy a better house & so it goes on & on. Subscribed.
Damn I was hoping atleast some affordable housing would come down. But I suppose the rich will be snapping those up too. Great content as always mate. Keep it coming. Need to try and do more collaborations with other creators to bring in more growth to the channel.
Gary I think you are so on the ball. I had always been a Labour voter But we the voters gave Tony Blair and New Labour a good working number of seats in the house of commons And I think he sold us all down the river and I have not got it in me to vote for new Labour again
Gary, could you explain how else inflation happens *without* a government printing money? Because you say you think that was the cause...what exactly else would be?
Hi Gary, great analysis. Given the reduction in the energy price guarantee would you say housing is still likely to rise in the medium term? Is the total spend now 50 billion instead of 150?
Gary, can you do a video explaining how you would tax the rich and how much you would expect to generate. Something detailed, that illustrates how many people are in each bracket and the amount expected to be raised. Also include whether you think the rich would leave the country. As when I say to friends and colleagues about taxing wealth every one thinks I’m wrong and that it wouldn’t raise enough money. And of course, I get told that the rich would emigrate. I think those that would emigrate for tax reasons already have.
Thanks for spreading the word. My mum was able to buy our council flat in the hopes of doing it up and getting us a proper family home, with a fat mortgage. When the time came when my mum wasn’t able to pay the mortgage of our flat, a lord and lady offered to buy it, in cash, for a cheekily low amount. Desperation set in and she agreed to the price. Four months later, they one day pulled out of the agreement because they decided they wouldn’t make enough money renting it out. At this point, my mum had quit her job, the wifi, ect, and we were all ready to move out. This is a pain that has stayed with us for 10 years, and will continue on, and it breaks my heart to know that this is absolutely going to happen to others.
Thank you so much for your videos Gary. Reading the news every solution for the living crisis seemed to be focused on austerity as the only solution. My gut feeling was the same as you, that the rich could pay rather than the poor. We are due to remortgage next September and we hoped to incorporate the debt from the help to buy scheme, but this seems impossible now. I guess all we can do is wait, follow your videos and hope interest rates fall. Thanks again for taking the time to make these videos and share your views.
Always find your videos extremely insightful. You mention house prices continuing to rise in the mid to long term based on those that have benefited from government stimulus investing in additional property with little or no mortgage and that you feel interest rates will settle down along with inflation over a similar period...is there much danger do you think that if such a scenario plays out, typical home owners that pay down significant amounts of their mortgage over the next few years look to make large ticket purchases based on the value of their homes increasing? If the BoE feel an asset bubble is contributing to inflation then could we see much higher interest rates for longer?
Thank you for making these important arguments, which are largely kept hidden by much of the media. Hopefully you have also noticed the Labour party under Keir Starmer is also not making these arguments. As a former Labour party member I learnt the hard way that the party has been captured by the same financial interests that have captured the Tory party. The majority Centrist (80% MPs) elements of the party worked tirelessly to prevent policies such as taxing the Rich when Corbyn was the (accidental) leader. See "The Labour Files", The Morning Star, The Canary, Skwawkbox, The independent for details.
Thanks Gary for another 'out of consensus' video. A couple of thoughts: the current inflation started with commodities, are commodity prices predictable in any way? Remember how oil prices fell to MINUS $40 one day in 2020? Also, interest rate hikes can take c. 6 months to work their way through, so let's say early next year, they cause GDP to fall 2% yoy, will the BoE not start reducing them?
Fascinating video. I’ve watched almost all of your videos since I found you in the last few days. I’ve just got a decently paying job out of uni and the plan was to save and put money into property as soon as possible. Unfortunately this looks like it might be out of my reach now. One question - I find it difficult to grasp what you mean by the government giving out money to rich people. Is this in relation to the government borrowing money from rich people? How is this actually done? I’m aware you’ve addressed this but every time I start to understand it, it slips away! Keep doing what you’re doing!!
@Mark thanks for taking the time to reply, mark. I am an absolutely art person and not at all a maths person, so find it all a tad hard to grasp. However, I am aware this knowledge is very empowering, so I am trying to learn. Your description has helped a lot!
Some markets like the one in Canada have lower elasticity due to the amount of immigration we get and how few houses we build. Even if interest rates go up prices don't go down as much because the supply is not growing at the same rate as demand.
Hey Gary, what would you recommend for first time buyers in London? Think the main question coming up if it's better to rent or to buy (and bite the bullet with high mortgage rates etc at the moment).
Hi Gary,loving your work. Do you still have the same opinion on your forecast today given very recent events (base rate now 5%!!). Intrigued to know what your thoughts are for the next year/18months on interest rates.
Hi Gary, could you do a video on "Shorting Stocks"? I just can't understand how people have the nerve to borrow someone else's stock to resell over and give back the stock in time.
Energy commodity price inflation is the primary cause of what were experiencing at the moment. It creates further inflation in every other sector which is dependent on that energy, which is why practically everything is going up in tandem.
Can you make a video showing how we can hedge against these outcomes?. Some of us do have some trading experience but I found it hard to short the s and p 500 so what do you use to trade ect. How did you place a trade on interest rates going up?
As a self employed person renting a flat in Surrey, £12k in my bank account would be lovely, but unfortunately wouldn't go very far towards a deposit. Maybe it would be enough for some people to take them over the edge and be able to afford to buy, but for many it wouldn't. The problem is even bigger than just re-distributing that £750bn. That just gets us back to pre 2020, but we still need to build more houses to rebalance the supply/demand in the South East.
More houses could be part of the solution, but creating more and better work across the country is the bigger part IMHO If we don't have huge numbers of people moving to the south for work, we wouldn't have so much pressure on housing in the area
Right to buy was a Thatcher con from the getgo. Unless the social housing stock was replenished, which it never has been, it was bound to result in a social renting sector disaster, Now we have a burgeoning class of modern day Rachmans ripping ordinary people to shreds with the private rented sector con, with no alternative for many.
The BOE has been performing QE for years which led to a rise in asset prices including housing... compounded by years of austerity instead of going for sustainable growth... now we have had a pandemic and a war in Europe too... plus the government give aways... things are catching up with us !!
Hi Gary, Love your videos - I'm learning a lot. A quick question: Why are Labour politicians reluctant to commit to taxing the very rich? I would understand their resistance to increasing taxes on middle-income earners or even those who are relatively well off, but why would a commitment to tax the very rich, who make up a tiny proportion of the electorate and would generally vote Tory anyway, be seen as a vote loser?
Thanks Gary! It's easy to want to bury our heads in the sand given the bleak outlook, but so important that we're armed with the facts and info to feel inspired and driven to push for change! Out of curiosity, when referring to 'the rich', how much wealth are we talking? What are the markers between being comfortable and rich?
I'm so glad when COVID hit I foresaw a big hit to the economy this then lead to me getting a fixed rate deal until 2026 at 2.15%. With that deal and having no debt other than my mortgage we are going to be ok. The only thing that is hurting at the moment is the house is a fair bit cooler as we try to use less heating.
There is no major oversupply or speculative credit bubble like there was heading into the 2008 GFC, so without mass distressed sales prices will at most correct a little before resuming upward trjectory. The next major crash is likely around 2026/7 given the 18.6 year land price cycle average over centuries (see Homer Hoyt/Fred Harrison/Roy Wenzlick/Phil J Anderson).
I have been watching this channel for a good while now so when I took out a mortgage last Autumn I decided to fix my mortgage for the whole term of 12 years at 3.9%, it did seem a tad high at the time but I thought that by doing that and following advice from channels like this one it made sense to me. I'm so glad I did because I do feel some sense of being protected now from all the nightmare of the market at the moment. I'm so glad this guy is now getting the attention he deserves cos this guy talks way way more sense than almost all the other economists out there. Well done mate.
Wow you've lucked out. My mortgage advisor put me on 2 years at 1.54% which I need to renew next October. Rang her up and she's like "oh sorry, I don't know why I did that as everyone else i put on a 5 year deal." 😡😡 although I will be fine as my mortgage payment is extremely low, so will only go up £200-£300 worse case.
@@40yearoldvirgil15 You chose that product. She didn't put you on anything
I got my mortgage last year and locked for 2 years. Wish I'd done longer. But I can overpay as much as I can with no fees, so I'm just moving all my money into the mortgage. Hopefully my repayments (currently £530 a month (we had a big deposit)) will remain the same as long as we put all our extra cash into the mortgage balance.
@@hmq9052 Defiantly didn't just 'chose that product', that would be a non-advised transaction without an adviser. The person was advised to go on a two year fixed term, they didn't chose the product, they chose to accept the advice. If the product is not suitable then a complaint can be issued which can then be escalated to FOS. With a mortgage, the adviser isn't going to know what the market will do, but they should have had a discussion around short term cost over long term security before providing a recommendation. The fact the adviser doesn't know why they advised them to take out a product is quite ridiculous (it should be covered off in their suitability), as is recommending everyone else to take a 5-year term. A recommendation should be suitable for the client need.
@@stephenbrown5045 They always leave you with a choice. Of some sort.
This man talks so much sense it's unbelievable. He needs to get into politics and teach those so called politicians that the country is for all the people and not just the 1%.
This guy is an excellent communicator and teacher. Everything is simplified so your auntie can understand it. With a total leck of buzz words 👍👍 Excellent
Gary you could have kept your talent and knowledge to yourself. I can't thank you enough for breaking down and explaining economics in such a clear way I actually can understand! Please don't stop doing these as we try and navigate these times.
We won’t stop that’s what me and Gary do.
Finally someone trustworthy to listen to ! This is what I needed straightforward understandable information about the shitshow we’re living in 👍
I support it and I spread your knowledge. Your communication is eye opening Gary. Please don't stop spreading this message.
Hey Gary! It's heartwarming to see you with that spring in your step again. I was genuinely worried about how hard you'd obviously found making the video about the mini budget. It was heartbreaking to watch and not just because of what you were saying. The fact that you clearly care so much is really endearing and when you add that empathy to your expertise it's no shock that the videos you are producing are so powerful. I think many people struggle with understanding how much richer someone with a billion pounds is is to a "mere" millionaire till I tell them that a million seconds is 12 days and a billion is 34 years. It's usually at that point that they realise how much inequality there is in the UK and how someone like Sunak isn't their friend and never will be. I'm 56 years old and lucky enough to be relatively comfortable having had a well paid career which meant I could build on the good start I got from buying my first home at 18. The fact that my own kids don't have the opportunities I had to own their own homes breaks my heart. I will never understand how any "normal" person with children could have made their future worse by voting for Brexit or for the Tory party in any recent general election. I can't think of anything more selfish. Thank you for everything you are doing to try to reverse the direction we are heading in and to make the UK a better place for our future generations. You are a force for good and the work you are doing is definitely making a difference. x
So refreshing to hear someone talking actual sense... rather than the usual nonsense spouted by those in charge who have absolutely no idea how the majority have to live in the UK.
Keep it up Gary... you are a legend 💚
And your interview with Aaron Bastani was excellent... thanku 💚
I feel so relieved I managed to get a 5 year fixed rate. My current provider wouldn't let me set up a new mortgage until 3 months before the end of the current fixed mortgage. So I found one that could do it 6 months before which was August the 1st. My gut feeling was right on this one. Food shopping yesterday and I've noticed the prices have risen sharply again. Christmas is going to bleak for alot of people especially when the bill's start landing in January.
Thank you once again.
An ex Bank of England governor said on the BBC recently that taxing the rich will not get us out of this mess, but to tax the ordinary people. I just heard another BBC reporter saying the only way out of this is more austerity and higher taxes. Although difficult, the ordinary people must be aware and hold these institutions accountable.
Its a rigged game rich own the gov and the media
hi Gary, I just found your channel a couple of days ago. I was totally confused about what had happened in the uk, I just couldn't understand it. But you have explained it so well. thanks so much. I feel fully educated now. I left the uk over a decade ago because back then it made no sense to me, wages were too low to cover basic life expenses like rent etc... I headed for Asia, where I found a better life standard... now I have been living in France for 6 years, I'm constantly amazed by how much funding and state help people get here compared to the uk, little things like affordable childcare, great benefits system etc etc. What I have understood now, from watching your videos, is that the only reason we have a good system in France is because of the Gillet jaune protestors. Actually the UK just needs to look across the water at how the French deal with their leaders to see how to make a change. Brits have to take to the streets and protest it's the only way. But first they need to understand what they are protesting for and the message needs to be clear to the government... I really hope your channel grows and that it develops some kind of actual movement by the people watching.
I don't normally comment on videos but it is refreshing to finally hear someone speaking like this. I found your videos today and it's a relief that someone else thinks the same. I also studied mathematics, finance and economics and never thought it made sense and due to my background didn't quite make it into the investment banking world. However, I do work with people who try to make me believe my opinions are laughable, they are all Tories and I've seen this happen during covid where everyone in my office bought a property during covid and they are all at retirement age or above. I've tried to discuss with my peers but majority don't really want to hear the truth.
Gary. Love these vids. Consider putting them across podcast services. As they’re monologues they would be perfect as an audio only podcast. Plus, loads of people don’t UA-cam - especially the older generation.
I'm old, but prefer you tube to podcasts. It's a fair point, though, as everyone would benefit from knowing about GarysEconomics.
I would happily help with this
Agreed re podcast version. I listen to a lot of stuff while running or doing jobs round the house. 👍🏻
Podcast/TikTok could certainly be another way forward. A nice antidote a lot of the macho crap content that's out there.
I think he should be on TikTok and instagram reels, and UA-cam shorts, the younger generation has a very short attention span and if this information could be made shorter and faster with links to the UA-cam channel it would get the message out faster to everyone.
Only when we accept the truth of things as they are can we begin taking steps towards meaningful change. Thanks for sharing your knowledge Gary
Gary, if you were Chancellor of the Exchequer and you announced a budget, what would it look like, what would it contain? For instance, how *would* you tax wealth and the rich to claw back the money given to them in previous years: are there a number of ways it can be done?
Ps I always look forward to your videos, along with Double Down News Byline Times and Novara Media. I can't get enough of them!
Asset tax, windfall tax, a new income tax bracket, duties on exports
Hi Skylar, we have a video about wealth tax coming in 2 weeks, keep watching!
@@garyseconomics Fab!
All this is paid for by a 1% transaction tax on goods and services, that over time could render all other taxes obsolete. This is all transactions, so interest payments are also taxed.
@@garyseconomics Cannot wait :)
Gary please could you do a video explaining in detail who “the rich” are (are they for example investors and shareholders in those energy companies or executives at those energy firms etc) and exactly how the mechanisms which transfer wealth from the government to them work? I’d really like to understand in more detail. Appreciate your work and your message.
Yeh I’d like to know too
I'm catching up with Gary's posts if he has not done already would be good to hear.
Agreed. The usual narrative in the UK is 'the rich' is someone who has more money than I have.. but don't raise my taxes... I'm sure Gary doesn't share this simplistic view but talking about 'the rich' without talking about specific policies and thresholds is all a bit abstract
For people looking for this information, he does now have a video on what would be considered rich - boiling it down, it’s basically the top 1%, those with assets greater than £3M or so at this time. But the main focus is those with assets much higher than that. So very high earners after several years would start to fall into that category, but mostly people with massive generational wealth who pay very little on it.
Hi Gary - it would be great if you could provide an update on this topic. It's so relevant to many of us and now that we have yet another Conservative government, a new budget, the so-called easing of inflation, etc., I'd love to hear your thoughts on the matter. Thank you for all your sound and direct analysis.
I'm coming from future he was right on everything he said
Love your channel Gary- finally someone who clearly explains how we are being effected by this Government’s policies.
Great video. I completed on my house 30/09/2022. When i got my rate with Halifax 2.88% 5 years fixed in June was not happy with my rate as it seemed really high to what the rates were earlier in the year. Looking back now happy I secured a decent rate and got the property in the area i wanted. Inflation is still quite high maybe rates will go down next 1-2 years but we won't have the all time lows anymore.
@GarysEconomics I've just finished watching every video and I'd like to say thanks! Even though it's not a pleasant thought, the sheer scale of the problem may be the thing that ultimately forces a change. Keep going Gary!!
Rate your straight forward language Gary. Something uplifting about hearing , a lets face it, pretty complex subject, addressed so succinctly. Thanks amigo
I’ve learned more about how this stuff works, in the past few weeks, than I learned in 60 years..
They should be teaching this stuff in schools..!
That would be giving the gane away!
Yeah because teenagers really care about it. Have you ever tried teaching finance to teenagers? News flash, they don’t care at that age!!!
As I didn’t at that age
Appreciate you taking the time to keep us all informed.
Great video Gary.
Great to see a bit of stability in the past week or so but what a mess our Government has put us all in!!
No doubt our new PM will put the blocks on public spending and the impact of this will hit those less well off. He has to do something to help the poorer members of our society but he won't to the correct levels. He will help his kind just as his track record shows.
Gary mate, you are a force for good and could inspire many people to help bring about the changes we need to the economy and to society. I think you should create a simple effective slogan centred around Inequality that resonates and you can then repeat ad nauseum to get through to the vast majority of people. See how "Get Brexit Done" or "Tough on Crime" worked (even though both were utter BS!). Keep up the vids mate, got yourself out there....change will come (hopefully in time!)
Tax the Rich.
Yes and that slogan should be simply...tax the rich
Tax Wealth, Not Work
Totally agree
and take care of yourself
I don't see many ways to improve the situation other than getting your videos more traction, getting the message out to tax the rich and trickling the message into the Labour party. So here's my comment and like as a little contribution. Thanks for the video Gary.
Love your analysis Gary. I was economic historian in another life and I looked at what happened in Japan in the 30s,which was fascinatng mirror into much of what is happening now. I agree with you that inflation is potentially a major problem, and this is largely being driven by monetary factors.
I think the big question Gary is what does the US do. The US has basically flooded international capital markets with USDs since Lehmans. This made it possible for the BOE and ECB to do the same. It is now drawing back that liquidity.This is the cause of the volatility in the financial markets - the Kwarteng budget fiasco, Credit Suisse etc. It is exposing weaker currencies and banks. This is going to be q particularly difficult time for emerging markets. Of course psychology is behind it, and not rational actors as neo-classical economists like to believe (even soundly capitalised banks can be affected). The IMF is partly responsible for a lot of the problems in world economies today - including a lot of the neo-liberalism behind what ultimately led to inequality and the 2008 financial crisis. But they have wisened up. They are very concerned about a crisis breaking out somewhere in the world while the US winds down its QE program, which is why they were very critical of the Kwarteng budget.
My prediction: despite recent volatility, I suspect the US Fed will press on with drawing back on QE. The UK and ECB will then be forced to maintain high interest rates to avoid collapses in their currencies. I therefore think house prices will be weak and fall for the next few years. When the US has finished its QT house price rises will return to some degree - but I am not sure it will return in the way we have been used to over the last 10-20 years.
Most working class people won't be able to buy a house in this country soon. Foreign property companies are buying and finding tax loop holes. Banks are buying houses as a long term investment to rent out. I really admire you Gary for making these videos. A Billionaire on Ted Talks called Nick Hanauer said the pitch folks are coming. When I first saw His Ted talk I thought no way. Now I think we are definitely on the brink. This country is turning in to a mini Brazil. I worked over there for a short while in 1996 and thought how lucky I was to live in the UK. How things can change in a short time. I'm advising 2 of my sons to emigrate to a better country.
Can you do a video on Austrian economics? Rich people seem to be proposing Neo Feudalism. Great content. Thanks for what you're doing!
came here to ask this too
Austrian Economics is capitalism on acid - pretty much what Truss wanted to do
I think Hayek or von Mises said it should be legal to put your baby on the market to be sold - that’s Austrian economics - sell anything - everything is a market
So refreshing to hear someone talking sense on the economy. Thanks for the content, please keep it coming!
Brilliant. Heard about you from your guest appearance with Russell Brand. Great to see people interested in Economics of the Poor. Not a lot of money in it but a lot more interesting and relevant to people like me. Hope you get a Nobel Prize some day. :-)
Welcome aboard!
Thanks Gary, great video! I saw an economist on Novara Media recently suggest that a wealth tax would be difficult to implement and would take too long. This has also come up in conversations with my mates. I wonder if that might be something you could address on a video. What would a wealth tax look like and how would it work?
ua-cam.com/video/2iSsu_pwHSE/v-deo.html this video addresses whether we can tax them. Wealth tax video is coming very soon!
That was Richard Murphy, and I thought it was an odd thing for him to say. Wealth taxes are complicated, but I can't see how that's a reason not to implement them at all.
Hi Gary, thanks for a great video.
Please can you explain what you mean by all the money was given to the rich during Covid. Are you referring to business owners in general?
As a small business owner I can safely say that the vast majority of the 'support' that we received was in the form of loans that we are now struggling to pay back. This in contrast to the furlough scheme that allowed workers to receive 80% of their salary for not being at work (100% for the public sector). This is something I definitely supported at the time but I do think the narrative seems to be that businesses were bailed out and given bucket loads of money, which I can say from experience is not what happened...
Thanks
@@jamesburke4941 no he means big business. So most people who where furloughed got their 80% which most people would have spent on rent, mortgage, utilities, food, etc so ends up in the pockets of big business and then shareholders. However say a market trader working from home would have not been able to spend all his cash, so would have saved a good part of income.
It’s in their interest to pretend it’s difficult to implement when it comes to taking from workers it’s surprisingly easy
Chris, a suggestion… do an update on this subject and why the BoE is putting up interest rates as this leaver doesn’t effect the cause of this inflation cycle 👍
Thanks Gary you are empowering people 🙌
Clear and accessible as always. Thank you.
The richest PM in government will never tax the rich because they are his peers and his mates
The top 1% of earners pay @ one third of all income tax, the top 50% of earners pay 90% of all income tax. Guess who pays the least ?
Great stuff! Thank you!
Hey Gary thanks so much for this! Great video. One question: Why does government running a deficit lead to higher interest rates? Thanks a mill x
Thank you for your knowledge and insight, really appreciated.
Bottom line: Do NOT be in debt. Easier said than done - but I saw this coming ten years ago and took action. If you're in debt they OWN you.
Hi Gary, great video, is there any chance you'd do a "deep dive" video where you go through the numbers/data on some of this stuff to show your working? I'd like to be able to bring out data when I debate this stuff with my dad. It would be cool to learn how to analyse this stuff and look for certain markers for quality of life etc
Hi Gary, great video. Can you please do a video about universal basic income - good or bad idea?
You’re amazing Gary keep on keeping on xx
Thanks for doing what you do brother ✌️
thank you for your insights my friend, You are a good man
Love your clarity ‘ we are trying to solve inequality by using a strategy that increases inequality’. I guess that either they never learn, don’t care, or actually feel pleased with themselves for creating more wealth for themselves and their mates. I feel infuriated by Rishi Sunaks sad face when we don’t agree with him as I am sure he thinks giving people a fuel allowance was a good thing. The fact that all we did was hand it on to the already wealthy companies and shareholders seems to be lost on him.
There's so much focus on what the government has done, which is obviously horrendous, and lots of analysis of why it shouldn't have been done and the effects of their decisions, but one thing I've never seen any content creators do is provide a discussion of what they would do or what should be done.
I'd love to see you make a video entitled....If I was the chancellor and discuss your strategy
Gary your a young man . Who haven't experienced downturns
Thank you, Gary.
Great explanation. Would love to hear more about (1) the effect that restricting thbme supply of housing has had on asset prices (we have consistently built less than half the number of new homes agreed that we need, every year for at least 40 years) and (2) what you would do with the money collected from soaking the rich? How do you not end up with a huge number of people dependant on handouts? That is not going to give you back your middle class, is it? Keep up the good work. 😊
This is very informative Gary . Thank you for sharing your insight. I hope more people get your message
Another direct hit Gary. Throwing stones at an elephant unfortunately. We need a new government and hopefully you get a seat at the table economically.
Gary, good video. I believe that house prices may slow for a short period then carry on rising. Also believe that interest rates have little effect or no effect. Since 1950 we had 30 years of rising rates with high house price grown then 40 years of falling rates also with high house price growth. Add to that we've had two large falls in house prices 1990 & 2008 both when interest rates were falling. Currently a couple on a joint income of £80 are probably getting over £4k pay rise plus energy assistance payments which more than covers the higher mortgage charges. Its wage inflation that pushes up house prices. As wages rise mortgages get inflated away & reduce relative to income. A bigger mortgage then becomes more affordable so you can now buy a better house & so it goes on & on.
Subscribed.
Nice one geezer x
I’ve disliked governments in the past, and I’ve even hated a few, but I’ve never been afraid of a government until now.
Thanks for the information. I hope this gets the weight behind it it needs. I will share with everyone I can.
Cheers Gary.
Thanks Gary, corruption is shocking in this country.
great stuff
Thanks for this
Damn I was hoping atleast some affordable housing would come down. But I suppose the rich will be snapping those up too. Great content as always mate. Keep it coming. Need to try and do more collaborations with other creators to bring in more growth to the channel.
Gary I think you are so on the ball.
I had always been a Labour voter
But we the voters gave Tony Blair and New Labour a good working number of seats in the house of commons
And I think he sold us all down the river and I have not got it in me to vote for new Labour again
Gary, could you explain how else inflation happens *without* a government printing money? Because you say you think that was the cause...what exactly else would be?
It's Sunday and the legend is back!
Hi Gary, great analysis. Given the reduction in the energy price guarantee would you say housing is still likely to rise in the medium term? Is the total spend now 50 billion instead of 150?
Bleak is an understatement how is this going to improve anytime soon! I’m thinking in terms of years 😢
Keep up the good work with these videos ✊️
Gary, can you do a video explaining how you would tax the rich and how much you would expect to generate. Something detailed, that illustrates how many people are in each bracket and the amount expected to be raised. Also include whether you think the rich would leave the country. As when I say to friends and colleagues about taxing wealth every one thinks I’m wrong and that it wouldn’t raise enough money. And of course, I get told that the rich would emigrate. I think those that would emigrate for tax reasons already have.
ua-cam.com/video/2iSsu_pwHSE/v-deo.html - talks about if the rich will leave. Wealth tax video coming soon....
Another great, pertinent video G - merci beaucoup! :)
Thanks for spreading the word. My mum was able to buy our council flat in the hopes of doing it up and getting us a proper family home, with a fat mortgage. When the time came when my mum wasn’t able to pay the mortgage of our flat, a lord and lady offered to buy it, in cash, for a cheekily low amount. Desperation set in and she agreed to the price. Four months later, they one day pulled out of the agreement because they decided they wouldn’t make enough money renting it out. At this point, my mum had quit her job, the wifi, ect, and we were all ready to move out.
This is a pain that has stayed with us for 10 years, and will continue on, and it breaks my heart to know that this is absolutely going to happen to others.
I am so sorry 😢
Been waiting for an update in these changing times
Thank you so much for your videos Gary. Reading the news every solution for the living crisis seemed to be focused on austerity as the only solution. My gut feeling was the same as you, that the rich could pay rather than the poor.
We are due to remortgage next September and we hoped to incorporate the debt from the help to buy scheme, but this seems impossible now. I guess all we can do is wait, follow your videos and hope interest rates fall. Thanks again for taking the time to make these videos and share your views.
Always find your videos extremely insightful. You mention house prices continuing to rise in the mid to long term based on those that have benefited from government stimulus investing in additional property with little or no mortgage and that you feel interest rates will settle down along with inflation over a similar period...is there much danger do you think that if such a scenario plays out, typical home owners that pay down significant amounts of their mortgage over the next few years look to make large ticket purchases based on the value of their homes increasing? If the BoE feel an asset bubble is contributing to inflation then could we see much higher interest rates for longer?
Keep up the good work bro 💪
I’d also be curious to hear your take on Austrian Economists like Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard
Thank you for making these important arguments, which are largely kept hidden by much of the media. Hopefully you have also noticed the Labour party under Keir Starmer is also not making these arguments. As a former Labour party member I learnt the hard way that the party has been captured by the same financial interests that have captured the Tory party. The majority Centrist (80% MPs) elements of the party worked tirelessly to prevent policies such as taxing the Rich when Corbyn was the (accidental) leader. See "The Labour Files", The Morning Star, The Canary, Skwawkbox, The independent for details.
Thanks Gary for another 'out of consensus' video. A couple of thoughts: the current inflation started with commodities, are commodity prices predictable in any way? Remember how oil prices fell to MINUS $40 one day in 2020? Also, interest rate hikes can take c. 6 months to work their way through, so let's say early next year, they cause GDP to fall 2% yoy, will the BoE not start reducing them?
Are we sure it started with commodities?
Fascinating video. I’ve watched almost all of your videos since I found you in the last few days. I’ve just got a decently paying job out of uni and the plan was to save and put money into property as soon as possible. Unfortunately this looks like it might be out of my reach now.
One question - I find it difficult to grasp what you mean by the government giving out money to rich people. Is this in relation to the government borrowing money from rich people? How is this actually done? I’m aware you’ve addressed this but every time I start to understand it, it slips away!
Keep doing what you’re doing!!
@Mark thanks for taking the time to reply, mark. I am an absolutely art person and not at all a maths person, so find it all a tad hard to grasp. However, I am aware this knowledge is very empowering, so I am trying to learn. Your description has helped a lot!
Great clear explanation of how to really level up. Tax wealth and wealth transfer. Make the super rich pay their dues
I hope you can get involved with The People's Assembly Against Austerity especially Laura Pidcock
And Enough Is Enough - your the voice comrade
great vid mate
Thank you for what you do Gary!
What is the most effective way to support this message?
We can watch and rant but what exactly is the best way to approach MP's step by step?
Some markets like the one in Canada have lower elasticity due to the amount of immigration we get and how few houses we build. Even if interest rates go up prices don't go down as much because the supply is not growing at the same rate as demand.
Hey Gary, what would you recommend for first time buyers in London? Think the main question coming up if it's better to rent or to buy (and bite the bullet with high mortgage rates etc at the moment).
Hey Gary, well done! Wondering who out there you think is getting US (and possibly Canada - where I'm from) economic analysis largely correct? Thanks!
keep up the good work pal ✊
Hi Gary,loving your work. Do you still have the same opinion on your forecast today given very recent events (base rate now 5%!!). Intrigued to know what your thoughts are for the next year/18months on interest rates.
Hi Gary, could you do a video on "Shorting Stocks"? I just can't understand how people have the nerve to borrow someone else's stock to resell over and give back the stock in time.
Energy commodity price inflation is the primary cause of what were experiencing at the moment. It creates further inflation in every other sector which is dependent on that energy, which is why practically everything is going up in tandem.
Can you make a video showing how we can hedge against these outcomes?. Some of us do have some trading experience but I found it hard to short the s and p 500 so what do you use to trade ect. How did you place a trade on interest rates going up?
As a self employed person renting a flat in Surrey, £12k in my bank account would be lovely, but unfortunately wouldn't go very far towards a deposit. Maybe it would be enough for some people to take them over the edge and be able to afford to buy, but for many it wouldn't. The problem is even bigger than just re-distributing that £750bn. That just gets us back to pre 2020, but we still need to build more houses to rebalance the supply/demand in the South East.
More houses could be part of the solution, but creating more and better work across the country is the bigger part IMHO
If we don't have huge numbers of people moving to the south for work, we wouldn't have so much pressure on housing in the area
Would be interested to see you address land value taxes in a video
Right to buy was a Thatcher con from the getgo. Unless the social housing stock was replenished, which it never has been, it was bound to result in a social renting sector disaster, Now we have a burgeoning class of modern day Rachmans ripping ordinary people to shreds with the private rented sector con, with no alternative for many.
The BOE has been performing QE for years which led to a rise in asset prices including housing... compounded by years of austerity instead of going for sustainable growth... now we have had a pandemic and a war in Europe too... plus the government give aways... things are catching up with us !!
Hi Gary, Love your videos - I'm learning a lot. A quick question: Why are Labour politicians reluctant to commit to taxing the very rich? I would understand their resistance to increasing taxes on middle-income earners or even those who are relatively well off, but why would a commitment to tax the very rich, who make up a tiny proportion of the electorate and would generally vote Tory anyway, be seen as a vote loser?
Thanks Gary!
It's easy to want to bury our heads in the sand given the bleak outlook, but so important that we're armed with the facts and info to feel inspired and driven to push for change!
Out of curiosity, when referring to 'the rich', how much wealth are we talking?
What are the markers between being comfortable and rich?
Doh......I looked a little further....
ua-cam.com/video/AU8UTIVjZ0Y/v-deo.html
In his interview with Owen Jones he mentioned net worth of over 100 million pounds to start with.
Jeeze the channel is growing fast.
I'm so glad when COVID hit I foresaw a big hit to the economy this then lead to me getting a fixed rate deal until 2026 at 2.15%. With that deal and having no debt other than my mortgage we are going to be ok. The only thing that is hurting at the moment is the house is a fair bit cooler as we try to use less heating.
There is no major oversupply or speculative credit bubble like there was heading into the 2008 GFC, so without mass distressed sales prices will at most correct a little before resuming upward trjectory. The next major crash is likely around 2026/7 given the 18.6 year land price cycle average over centuries (see Homer Hoyt/Fred Harrison/Roy Wenzlick/Phil J Anderson).