Interest Rates & House Prices - What's Going to Happen?

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  • Опубліковано 28 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 538

  • @ihavenoname4273
    @ihavenoname4273 2 роки тому +296

    I have been watching this channel for a good while now so when I took out a mortgage last Autumn I decided to fix my mortgage for the whole term of 12 years at 3.9%, it did seem a tad high at the time but I thought that by doing that and following advice from channels like this one it made sense to me. I'm so glad I did because I do feel some sense of being protected now from all the nightmare of the market at the moment. I'm so glad this guy is now getting the attention he deserves cos this guy talks way way more sense than almost all the other economists out there. Well done mate.

    • @40yearoldvirgil15
      @40yearoldvirgil15 2 роки тому +6

      Wow you've lucked out. My mortgage advisor put me on 2 years at 1.54% which I need to renew next October. Rang her up and she's like "oh sorry, I don't know why I did that as everyone else i put on a 5 year deal." 😡😡 although I will be fine as my mortgage payment is extremely low, so will only go up £200-£300 worse case.

    • @hmq9052
      @hmq9052 2 роки тому +7

      @@40yearoldvirgil15 You chose that product. She didn't put you on anything

    • @chilldude30
      @chilldude30 2 роки тому +1

      I got my mortgage last year and locked for 2 years. Wish I'd done longer. But I can overpay as much as I can with no fees, so I'm just moving all my money into the mortgage. Hopefully my repayments (currently £530 a month (we had a big deposit)) will remain the same as long as we put all our extra cash into the mortgage balance.

    • @stephenbrown5045
      @stephenbrown5045 2 роки тому +4

      @@hmq9052 Defiantly didn't just 'chose that product', that would be a non-advised transaction without an adviser. The person was advised to go on a two year fixed term, they didn't chose the product, they chose to accept the advice. If the product is not suitable then a complaint can be issued which can then be escalated to FOS. With a mortgage, the adviser isn't going to know what the market will do, but they should have had a discussion around short term cost over long term security before providing a recommendation. The fact the adviser doesn't know why they advised them to take out a product is quite ridiculous (it should be covered off in their suitability), as is recommending everyone else to take a 5-year term. A recommendation should be suitable for the client need.

    • @hmq9052
      @hmq9052 2 роки тому +1

      @@stephenbrown5045 They always leave you with a choice. Of some sort.

  • @rsturgess7139
    @rsturgess7139 Рік тому +20

    This man talks so much sense it's unbelievable. He needs to get into politics and teach those so called politicians that the country is for all the people and not just the 1%.

  • @stevosd60
    @stevosd60 Рік тому +20

    This guy is an excellent communicator and teacher. Everything is simplified so your auntie can understand it. With a total leck of buzz words 👍👍 Excellent

  • @gwainfox
    @gwainfox 2 роки тому +45

    Gary you could have kept your talent and knowledge to yourself. I can't thank you enough for breaking down and explaining economics in such a clear way I actually can understand! Please don't stop doing these as we try and navigate these times.

    • @CEO786
      @CEO786 Рік тому +2

      We won’t stop that’s what me and Gary do.

  • @heidi1573
    @heidi1573 2 роки тому +20

    Finally someone trustworthy to listen to ! This is what I needed straightforward understandable information about the shitshow we’re living in 👍

  • @shiftystylin
    @shiftystylin 2 роки тому +32

    I support it and I spread your knowledge. Your communication is eye opening Gary. Please don't stop spreading this message.

  • @MacFufu
    @MacFufu 2 роки тому +5

    So refreshing to hear someone talking actual sense... rather than the usual nonsense spouted by those in charge who have absolutely no idea how the majority have to live in the UK.
    Keep it up Gary... you are a legend 💚
    And your interview with Aaron Bastani was excellent... thanku 💚

  • @andycairns2729
    @andycairns2729 2 роки тому +27

    Hey Gary! It's heartwarming to see you with that spring in your step again. I was genuinely worried about how hard you'd obviously found making the video about the mini budget. It was heartbreaking to watch and not just because of what you were saying. The fact that you clearly care so much is really endearing and when you add that empathy to your expertise it's no shock that the videos you are producing are so powerful. I think many people struggle with understanding how much richer someone with a billion pounds is is to a "mere" millionaire till I tell them that a million seconds is 12 days and a billion is 34 years. It's usually at that point that they realise how much inequality there is in the UK and how someone like Sunak isn't their friend and never will be. I'm 56 years old and lucky enough to be relatively comfortable having had a well paid career which meant I could build on the good start I got from buying my first home at 18. The fact that my own kids don't have the opportunities I had to own their own homes breaks my heart. I will never understand how any "normal" person with children could have made their future worse by voting for Brexit or for the Tory party in any recent general election. I can't think of anything more selfish. Thank you for everything you are doing to try to reverse the direction we are heading in and to make the UK a better place for our future generations. You are a force for good and the work you are doing is definitely making a difference. x

  • @dg115
    @dg115 2 роки тому +27

    I feel so relieved I managed to get a 5 year fixed rate. My current provider wouldn't let me set up a new mortgage until 3 months before the end of the current fixed mortgage. So I found one that could do it 6 months before which was August the 1st. My gut feeling was right on this one. Food shopping yesterday and I've noticed the prices have risen sharply again. Christmas is going to bleak for alot of people especially when the bill's start landing in January.

  • @Leila2023_
    @Leila2023_ 2 роки тому +10

    hi Gary, I just found your channel a couple of days ago. I was totally confused about what had happened in the uk, I just couldn't understand it. But you have explained it so well. thanks so much. I feel fully educated now. I left the uk over a decade ago because back then it made no sense to me, wages were too low to cover basic life expenses like rent etc... I headed for Asia, where I found a better life standard... now I have been living in France for 6 years, I'm constantly amazed by how much funding and state help people get here compared to the uk, little things like affordable childcare, great benefits system etc etc. What I have understood now, from watching your videos, is that the only reason we have a good system in France is because of the Gillet jaune protestors. Actually the UK just needs to look across the water at how the French deal with their leaders to see how to make a change. Brits have to take to the streets and protest it's the only way. But first they need to understand what they are protesting for and the message needs to be clear to the government... I really hope your channel grows and that it develops some kind of actual movement by the people watching.

  • @Sa-hi5nq
    @Sa-hi5nq 2 роки тому +8

    Thank you once again.
    An ex Bank of England governor said on the BBC recently that taxing the rich will not get us out of this mess, but to tax the ordinary people. I just heard another BBC reporter saying the only way out of this is more austerity and higher taxes. Although difficult, the ordinary people must be aware and hold these institutions accountable.

    • @IrishBengalCat
      @IrishBengalCat 2 роки тому +1

      Its a rigged game rich own the gov and the media

  • @Skylark_Jones
    @Skylark_Jones 2 роки тому +52

    Gary, if you were Chancellor of the Exchequer and you announced a budget, what would it look like, what would it contain? For instance, how *would* you tax wealth and the rich to claw back the money given to them in previous years: are there a number of ways it can be done?
    Ps I always look forward to your videos, along with Double Down News Byline Times and Novara Media. I can't get enough of them!

    • @ryanfinnerty6239
      @ryanfinnerty6239 2 роки тому +10

      Asset tax, windfall tax, a new income tax bracket, duties on exports

    • @garyseconomics
      @garyseconomics  2 роки тому +83

      Hi Skylar, we have a video about wealth tax coming in 2 weeks, keep watching!

    • @Skylark_Jones
      @Skylark_Jones 2 роки тому +5

      @@garyseconomics Fab!

    • @blindstagehand
      @blindstagehand 2 роки тому +2

      All this is paid for by a 1% transaction tax on goods and services, that over time could render all other taxes obsolete. This is all transactions, so interest payments are also taxed.

    • @gayaa6490
      @gayaa6490 2 роки тому +1

      @@garyseconomics Cannot wait :)

  • @clemparrish7446
    @clemparrish7446 2 роки тому +19

    Gary please could you do a video explaining in detail who “the rich” are (are they for example investors and shareholders in those energy companies or executives at those energy firms etc) and exactly how the mechanisms which transfer wealth from the government to them work? I’d really like to understand in more detail. Appreciate your work and your message.

    • @1292liam
      @1292liam 2 роки тому

      Yeh I’d like to know too

    • @leskouts2
      @leskouts2 2 роки тому

      I'm catching up with Gary's posts if he has not done already would be good to hear.

    • @hughiemg2
      @hughiemg2 2 роки тому +1

      Agreed. The usual narrative in the UK is 'the rich' is someone who has more money than I have.. but don't raise my taxes... I'm sure Gary doesn't share this simplistic view but talking about 'the rich' without talking about specific policies and thresholds is all a bit abstract

    • @rainbowevil
      @rainbowevil 9 місяців тому

      For people looking for this information, he does now have a video on what would be considered rich - boiling it down, it’s basically the top 1%, those with assets greater than £3M or so at this time. But the main focus is those with assets much higher than that. So very high earners after several years would start to fall into that category, but mostly people with massive generational wealth who pay very little on it.

  • @conorwalker1848
    @conorwalker1848 Рік тому +3

    Hi Gary - it would be great if you could provide an update on this topic. It's so relevant to many of us and now that we have yet another Conservative government, a new budget, the so-called easing of inflation, etc., I'd love to hear your thoughts on the matter. Thank you for all your sound and direct analysis.

  • @JM-yf3ol
    @JM-yf3ol 2 роки тому +76

    Gary. Love these vids. Consider putting them across podcast services. As they’re monologues they would be perfect as an audio only podcast. Plus, loads of people don’t UA-cam - especially the older generation.

    • @annstafford4789
      @annstafford4789 2 роки тому +7

      I'm old, but prefer you tube to podcasts. It's a fair point, though, as everyone would benefit from knowing about GarysEconomics.

    • @LeeroyJenkinsWeb3
      @LeeroyJenkinsWeb3 2 роки тому +3

      I would happily help with this

    • @andrewwhitfield5212
      @andrewwhitfield5212 2 роки тому +1

      Agreed re podcast version. I listen to a lot of stuff while running or doing jobs round the house. 👍🏻

    • @johnmartinez7440
      @johnmartinez7440 2 роки тому +1

      Podcast/TikTok could certainly be another way forward. A nice antidote a lot of the macho crap content that's out there.

    • @Leila2023_
      @Leila2023_ 2 роки тому +2

      I think he should be on TikTok and instagram reels, and UA-cam shorts, the younger generation has a very short attention span and if this information could be made shorter and faster with links to the UA-cam channel it would get the message out faster to everyone.

  • @georgedotjohnston
    @georgedotjohnston 2 роки тому +5

    Only when we accept the truth of things as they are can we begin taking steps towards meaningful change. Thanks for sharing your knowledge Gary

  • @kmarialovesnature
    @kmarialovesnature 2 роки тому +2

    I don't normally comment on videos but it is refreshing to finally hear someone speaking like this. I found your videos today and it's a relief that someone else thinks the same. I also studied mathematics, finance and economics and never thought it made sense and due to my background didn't quite make it into the investment banking world. However, I do work with people who try to make me believe my opinions are laughable, they are all Tories and I've seen this happen during covid where everyone in my office bought a property during covid and they are all at retirement age or above. I've tried to discuss with my peers but majority don't really want to hear the truth.

  • @saimaahmad2213
    @saimaahmad2213 Рік тому +2

    Love your channel Gary- finally someone who clearly explains how we are being effected by this Government’s policies.

  • @sardav160479
    @sardav160479 2 роки тому +15

    The richest PM in government will never tax the rich because they are his peers and his mates

    • @jjefferyworboys8138
      @jjefferyworboys8138 2 роки тому

      The top 1% of earners pay @ one third of all income tax, the top 50% of earners pay 90% of all income tax. Guess who pays the least ?

  • @kapparo4746
    @kapparo4746 8 місяців тому +1

    I'm coming from future he was right on everything he said

  • @zeea6507
    @zeea6507 2 роки тому +1

    Great video. I completed on my house 30/09/2022. When i got my rate with Halifax 2.88% 5 years fixed in June was not happy with my rate as it seemed really high to what the rates were earlier in the year. Looking back now happy I secured a decent rate and got the property in the area i wanted. Inflation is still quite high maybe rates will go down next 1-2 years but we won't have the all time lows anymore.

  • @mattsennett
    @mattsennett 2 роки тому +31

    Great video Gary.
    Great to see a bit of stability in the past week or so but what a mess our Government has put us all in!!
    No doubt our new PM will put the blocks on public spending and the impact of this will hit those less well off. He has to do something to help the poorer members of our society but he won't to the correct levels. He will help his kind just as his track record shows.

  • @richardporter6
    @richardporter6 2 роки тому +10

    Appreciate you taking the time to keep us all informed.

  • @simonoxenham5493
    @simonoxenham5493 2 роки тому +3

    @GarysEconomics I've just finished watching every video and I'd like to say thanks! Even though it's not a pleasant thought, the sheer scale of the problem may be the thing that ultimately forces a change. Keep going Gary!!

  • @lokiwun
    @lokiwun 2 роки тому +1

    Rate your straight forward language Gary. Something uplifting about hearing , a lets face it, pretty complex subject, addressed so succinctly. Thanks amigo

  • @Tochinoki
    @Tochinoki 2 роки тому +57

    Can you do a video on Austrian economics? Rich people seem to be proposing Neo Feudalism. Great content. Thanks for what you're doing!

    • @MagaCow
      @MagaCow 2 роки тому

      came here to ask this too

    • @twominutesturkish6664
      @twominutesturkish6664 2 роки тому +1

      Austrian Economics is capitalism on acid - pretty much what Truss wanted to do
      I think Hayek or von Mises said it should be legal to put your baby on the market to be sold - that’s Austrian economics - sell anything - everything is a market

  • @ThatGuyThanus
    @ThatGuyThanus 2 роки тому +5

    I’ve learned more about how this stuff works, in the past few weeks, than I learned in 60 years..
    They should be teaching this stuff in schools..!

    • @iainarmstrong6248
      @iainarmstrong6248 2 роки тому

      That would be giving the gane away!

    • @ozjob
      @ozjob Рік тому

      Yeah because teenagers really care about it. Have you ever tried teaching finance to teenagers? News flash, they don’t care at that age!!!
      As I didn’t at that age

  • @alanturner4326
    @alanturner4326 2 роки тому +4

    Most working class people won't be able to buy a house in this country soon. Foreign property companies are buying and finding tax loop holes. Banks are buying houses as a long term investment to rent out. I really admire you Gary for making these videos. A Billionaire on Ted Talks called Nick Hanauer said the pitch folks are coming. When I first saw His Ted talk I thought no way. Now I think we are definitely on the brink. This country is turning in to a mini Brazil. I worked over there for a short while in 1996 and thought how lucky I was to live in the UK. How things can change in a short time. I'm advising 2 of my sons to emigrate to a better country.

  • @WillReynolds88
    @WillReynolds88 2 роки тому +20

    Thanks Gary, great video! I saw an economist on Novara Media recently suggest that a wealth tax would be difficult to implement and would take too long. This has also come up in conversations with my mates. I wonder if that might be something you could address on a video. What would a wealth tax look like and how would it work?

    • @garyseconomics
      @garyseconomics  2 роки тому +10

      ua-cam.com/video/2iSsu_pwHSE/v-deo.html this video addresses whether we can tax them. Wealth tax video is coming very soon!

    • @thomaspowell2043
      @thomaspowell2043 2 роки тому +5

      That was Richard Murphy, and I thought it was an odd thing for him to say. Wealth taxes are complicated, but I can't see how that's a reason not to implement them at all.

    • @jamesburke4941
      @jamesburke4941 2 роки тому +1

      Hi Gary, thanks for a great video.
      Please can you explain what you mean by all the money was given to the rich during Covid. Are you referring to business owners in general?
      As a small business owner I can safely say that the vast majority of the 'support' that we received was in the form of loans that we are now struggling to pay back. This in contrast to the furlough scheme that allowed workers to receive 80% of their salary for not being at work (100% for the public sector). This is something I definitely supported at the time but I do think the narrative seems to be that businesses were bailed out and given bucket loads of money, which I can say from experience is not what happened...
      Thanks

    • @simplesimon5739
      @simplesimon5739 2 роки тому +2

      @@jamesburke4941 no he means big business. So most people who where furloughed got their 80% which most people would have spent on rent, mortgage, utilities, food, etc so ends up in the pockets of big business and then shareholders. However say a market trader working from home would have not been able to spend all his cash, so would have saved a good part of income.

    • @GrimReader
      @GrimReader 2 роки тому +4

      It’s in their interest to pretend it’s difficult to implement when it comes to taking from workers it’s surprisingly easy

  • @Aldeni1551
    @Aldeni1551 2 роки тому +1

    I don't see many ways to improve the situation other than getting your videos more traction, getting the message out to tax the rich and trickling the message into the Labour party. So here's my comment and like as a little contribution. Thanks for the video Gary.

  • @johnglynhughes4239
    @johnglynhughes4239 Рік тому +4

    Bottom line: Do NOT be in debt. Easier said than done - but I saw this coming ten years ago and took action. If you're in debt they OWN you.

  • @joyfullerton8841
    @joyfullerton8841 2 роки тому +5

    Hi Gary, great video. Can you please do a video about universal basic income - good or bad idea?

  • @getreal7964
    @getreal7964 2 роки тому +94

    Gary mate, you are a force for good and could inspire many people to help bring about the changes we need to the economy and to society. I think you should create a simple effective slogan centred around Inequality that resonates and you can then repeat ad nauseum to get through to the vast majority of people. See how "Get Brexit Done" or "Tough on Crime" worked (even though both were utter BS!). Keep up the vids mate, got yourself out there....change will come (hopefully in time!)

  • @Matkins85
    @Matkins85 2 роки тому

    So refreshing to hear someone talking sense on the economy. Thanks for the content, please keep it coming!

  • @jamest5149
    @jamest5149 Рік тому +1

    Chris, a suggestion… do an update on this subject and why the BoE is putting up interest rates as this leaver doesn’t effect the cause of this inflation cycle 👍

  • @simonsmatthew
    @simonsmatthew Рік тому +1

    Love your analysis Gary. I was economic historian in another life and I looked at what happened in Japan in the 30s,which was fascinatng mirror into much of what is happening now. I agree with you that inflation is potentially a major problem, and this is largely being driven by monetary factors.
    I think the big question Gary is what does the US do. The US has basically flooded international capital markets with USDs since Lehmans. This made it possible for the BOE and ECB to do the same. It is now drawing back that liquidity.This is the cause of the volatility in the financial markets - the Kwarteng budget fiasco, Credit Suisse etc. It is exposing weaker currencies and banks. This is going to be q particularly difficult time for emerging markets. Of course psychology is behind it, and not rational actors as neo-classical economists like to believe (even soundly capitalised banks can be affected). The IMF is partly responsible for a lot of the problems in world economies today - including a lot of the neo-liberalism behind what ultimately led to inequality and the 2008 financial crisis. But they have wisened up. They are very concerned about a crisis breaking out somewhere in the world while the US winds down its QE program, which is why they were very critical of the Kwarteng budget.
    My prediction: despite recent volatility, I suspect the US Fed will press on with drawing back on QE. The UK and ECB will then be forced to maintain high interest rates to avoid collapses in their currencies. I therefore think house prices will be weak and fall for the next few years. When the US has finished its QT house price rises will return to some degree - but I am not sure it will return in the way we have been used to over the last 10-20 years.

  • @Tom-lx5re
    @Tom-lx5re 2 роки тому +4

    Hey Gary thanks so much for this! Great video. One question: Why does government running a deficit lead to higher interest rates? Thanks a mill x

  • @adventureswithmm
    @adventureswithmm 2 роки тому +2

    Thanks Gary you are empowering people 🙌

  • @laurencehunt5508
    @laurencehunt5508 2 роки тому +5

    Hi Gary, great video, is there any chance you'd do a "deep dive" video where you go through the numbers/data on some of this stuff to show your working? I'd like to be able to bring out data when I debate this stuff with my dad. It would be cool to learn how to analyse this stuff and look for certain markers for quality of life etc

  • @DirtyJokesFan
    @DirtyJokesFan 2 роки тому +3

    Clear and accessible as always. Thank you.

  • @kalbirsingh1411
    @kalbirsingh1411 2 роки тому

    Gary your a young man . Who haven't experienced downturns

  • @dalskiBo
    @dalskiBo Рік тому +1

    Thanks Gary, corruption is shocking in this country.

  • @kennedyjames007
    @kennedyjames007 Рік тому +2

    Brilliant. Heard about you from your guest appearance with Russell Brand. Great to see people interested in Economics of the Poor. Not a lot of money in it but a lot more interesting and relevant to people like me. Hope you get a Nobel Prize some day. :-)

  • @rumalahmed3806
    @rumalahmed3806 2 роки тому +2

    Thank you for your knowledge and insight, really appreciated.

  • @1966wilky
    @1966wilky 2 роки тому +1

    I’ve disliked governments in the past, and I’ve even hated a few, but I’ve never been afraid of a government until now.

  • @tonychorley4936
    @tonychorley4936 Рік тому +3

    Love your clarity ‘ we are trying to solve inequality by using a strategy that increases inequality’. I guess that either they never learn, don’t care, or actually feel pleased with themselves for creating more wealth for themselves and their mates. I feel infuriated by Rishi Sunaks sad face when we don’t agree with him as I am sure he thinks giving people a fuel allowance was a good thing. The fact that all we did was hand it on to the already wealthy companies and shareholders seems to be lost on him.

  • @aderiley6592
    @aderiley6592 2 роки тому +3

    Thanks for doing what you do brother ✌️

  • @newstartt99
    @newstartt99 Рік тому

    Great explanation. Would love to hear more about (1) the effect that restricting thbme supply of housing has had on asset prices (we have consistently built less than half the number of new homes agreed that we need, every year for at least 40 years) and (2) what you would do with the money collected from soaking the rich? How do you not end up with a huge number of people dependant on handouts? That is not going to give you back your middle class, is it? Keep up the good work. 😊

  • @happywednesday6741
    @happywednesday6741 2 роки тому +1

    Gary, could you explain how else inflation happens *without* a government printing money? Because you say you think that was the cause...what exactly else would be?

  • @debbiemiller163
    @debbiemiller163 2 роки тому +1

    You’re amazing Gary keep on keeping on xx

  • @azapura
    @azapura 2 роки тому +3

    Great stuff! Thank you!

  • @darrenlemaire8750
    @darrenlemaire8750 2 роки тому +6

    Gary, can you do a video explaining how you would tax the rich and how much you would expect to generate. Something detailed, that illustrates how many people are in each bracket and the amount expected to be raised. Also include whether you think the rich would leave the country. As when I say to friends and colleagues about taxing wealth every one thinks I’m wrong and that it wouldn’t raise enough money. And of course, I get told that the rich would emigrate. I think those that would emigrate for tax reasons already have.

    • @garyseconomics
      @garyseconomics  2 роки тому +2

      ua-cam.com/video/2iSsu_pwHSE/v-deo.html - talks about if the rich will leave. Wealth tax video coming soon....

  • @CarlosWillis
    @CarlosWillis 2 роки тому +2

    There's so much focus on what the government has done, which is obviously horrendous, and lots of analysis of why it shouldn't have been done and the effects of their decisions, but one thing I've never seen any content creators do is provide a discussion of what they would do or what should be done.
    I'd love to see you make a video entitled....If I was the chancellor and discuss your strategy

  • @magiccards88
    @magiccards88 2 роки тому +1

    It's Sunday and the legend is back!

  • @davidgane5786
    @davidgane5786 2 роки тому +3

    Bleak is an understatement how is this going to improve anytime soon! I’m thinking in terms of years 😢

  • @patriciacollier128
    @patriciacollier128 2 роки тому

    I hope you can get involved with The People's Assembly Against Austerity especially Laura Pidcock
    And Enough Is Enough - your the voice comrade

  • @rodfoster1
    @rodfoster1 2 роки тому

    thank you for your insights my friend, You are a good man

  • @knowledgeis5855
    @knowledgeis5855 2 роки тому

    What is the most effective way to support this message?
    We can watch and rant but what exactly is the best way to approach MP's step by step?

  • @kevinvance6350
    @kevinvance6350 2 роки тому

    Gary, good video. I believe that house prices may slow for a short period then carry on rising. Also believe that interest rates have little effect or no effect. Since 1950 we had 30 years of rising rates with high house price grown then 40 years of falling rates also with high house price growth. Add to that we've had two large falls in house prices 1990 & 2008 both when interest rates were falling. Currently a couple on a joint income of £80 are probably getting over £4k pay rise plus energy assistance payments which more than covers the higher mortgage charges. Its wage inflation that pushes up house prices. As wages rise mortgages get inflated away & reduce relative to income. A bigger mortgage then becomes more affordable so you can now buy a better house & so it goes on & on.
    Subscribed.

  • @robertwhittall8874
    @robertwhittall8874 Рік тому

    Gary I think you are so on the ball.
    I had always been a Labour voter
    But we the voters gave Tony Blair and New Labour a good working number of seats in the house of commons
    And I think he sold us all down the river and I have not got it in me to vote for new Labour again

  • @schumanhuman
    @schumanhuman 2 роки тому +2

    There is no major oversupply or speculative credit bubble like there was heading into the 2008 GFC, so without mass distressed sales prices will at most correct a little before resuming upward trjectory. The next major crash is likely around 2026/7 given the 18.6 year land price cycle average over centuries (see Homer Hoyt/Fred Harrison/Roy Wenzlick/Phil J Anderson).

  • @zk1801
    @zk1801 2 роки тому

    This is very informative Gary . Thank you for sharing your insight. I hope more people get your message

  • @markbain9290
    @markbain9290 2 роки тому +1

    Thanks Gary for another 'out of consensus' video. A couple of thoughts: the current inflation started with commodities, are commodity prices predictable in any way? Remember how oil prices fell to MINUS $40 one day in 2020? Also, interest rate hikes can take c. 6 months to work their way through, so let's say early next year, they cause GDP to fall 2% yoy, will the BoE not start reducing them?

  • @darrenmyners
    @darrenmyners 2 роки тому

    Hi Gary, great analysis. Given the reduction in the energy price guarantee would you say housing is still likely to rise in the medium term? Is the total spend now 50 billion instead of 150?

  • @Col96
    @Col96 2 роки тому +3

    Thanks for spreading the word. My mum was able to buy our council flat in the hopes of doing it up and getting us a proper family home, with a fat mortgage. When the time came when my mum wasn’t able to pay the mortgage of our flat, a lord and lady offered to buy it, in cash, for a cheekily low amount. Desperation set in and she agreed to the price. Four months later, they one day pulled out of the agreement because they decided they wouldn’t make enough money renting it out. At this point, my mum had quit her job, the wifi, ect, and we were all ready to move out.
    This is a pain that has stayed with us for 10 years, and will continue on, and it breaks my heart to know that this is absolutely going to happen to others.

  • @marihutten
    @marihutten 2 роки тому

    Some markets like the one in Canada have lower elasticity due to the amount of immigration we get and how few houses we build. Even if interest rates go up prices don't go down as much because the supply is not growing at the same rate as demand.

  • @conconmc
    @conconmc 2 роки тому

    Hey Gary, what would you recommend for first time buyers in London? Think the main question coming up if it's better to rent or to buy (and bite the bullet with high mortgage rates etc at the moment).

  • @Dr.Stacker
    @Dr.Stacker 2 роки тому

    How long do you define Medium Term?

  • @brams77
    @brams77 Рік тому

    How do you bet on interest rates going up?

  • @thomaswhitehead5496
    @thomaswhitehead5496 2 роки тому +1

    Keep up the good work with these videos ✊️

  • @huxley49620
    @huxley49620 2 роки тому +1

    I’d also be curious to hear your take on Austrian Economists like Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard

  • @workhardplayhard7610
    @workhardplayhard7610 2 роки тому +1

    Damn I was hoping atleast some affordable housing would come down. But I suppose the rich will be snapping those up too. Great content as always mate. Keep it coming. Need to try and do more collaborations with other creators to bring in more growth to the channel.

  • @gayaa6490
    @gayaa6490 2 роки тому

    Another great, pertinent video G - merci beaucoup! :)

  • @Ianpact
    @Ianpact 2 роки тому

    Thank you, Gary.

  • @jonvanderkreek9897
    @jonvanderkreek9897 2 роки тому +6

    Id love to hear your thoughts on mechanisms to tax the rich. higher marginal income taxes, wealth tax, property tax, sales tax?

    • @garyseconomics
      @garyseconomics  2 роки тому +6

      Hi Jon, we have a video on a possible wealth tax coming out in a few weeks! Keep watching

    • @JamesParus
      @JamesParus 2 роки тому +2

      Progressive property tax. Where first house is free and after that it goes up fast. But of course they could go around it with companies that do the owning.

    • @schumanhuman
      @schumanhuman 2 роки тому +2

      @@JamesParus You shouldn't make the fist property tax free as some very wealthy people who only own a single mansion might then pay less tax. A flat land value tax on all land with a land dividend returned to everyone would be very progressive. 60% of UK wealth is land value according to the ONS, look deeper that includes a lot of the stock makrets value as well (REIT's, bank profits, corprorate real estate)

    • @jjefferyworboys8138
      @jjefferyworboys8138 2 роки тому

      @@schumanhuman Doesn't Stamp Duty do that very simply ?

    • @schumanhuman
      @schumanhuman 2 роки тому

      @@jjefferyworboys8138 Stamp duty is pretty good and the Tories shouldn' have reduced it but, no it's not so simple. It mostly taxes the same thing (land) as LVT but far less efficiently. Because it is a tax on transactions it risks reduces the number of transactions (aka market churn) , in econo speak it distorts the market.
      That is exactly the problem right now with interest/mortgage rates being so high, basically no one wants to give up their fixed rate mortgages so even if they wanted to move they are holding tight as long as possible.
      So even if in theory higher interest rates reduce house prices (and over the long term they would), they are also contraining supply of existing housing and reducing new construction. Like stamp duty the effects are uneven and contradictory.
      A big landowner like the Duke of Westminster (net worth around 10billion, almost all inhereted property) doesn't pay a penny in stamp duty/CGT if he just holds on to his land forever and collects the rent regardless that prices may fall (lower pirce = higher yield) . The (regressively structured) council tax he pays is a pittance vs the value he extracts from society. At te very least we should reassess (hasn't been done since the 1990's) and restructure council tax from it's crude banding so we are not subsidising such shirkers.
      Stamp duty and CGT on property are both decent taxes at low/moderate levels, but an ongoing tax on property, even more so one on land value only, has far more benefits and potential to reduce wealth inequality and the boom bust cycle driven by land speculation (see Fred Harrison's 18 year cycle theory).

  • @paulstaines9205
    @paulstaines9205 Рік тому

    Thanks for the information. I hope this gets the weight behind it it needs. I will share with everyone I can.

  • @abhogal11
    @abhogal11 2 роки тому +2

    Keep up the good work bro 💪

  • @joannagreaves7616
    @joannagreaves7616 2 роки тому

    Great clear explanation of how to really level up. Tax wealth and wealth transfer. Make the super rich pay their dues

  • @JWHarris........
    @JWHarris........ 2 роки тому

    Cheers Gary.

  • @emmadolley4
    @emmadolley4 2 роки тому

    Thank you so much for your videos Gary. Reading the news every solution for the living crisis seemed to be focused on austerity as the only solution. My gut feeling was the same as you, that the rich could pay rather than the poor.
    We are due to remortgage next September and we hoped to incorporate the debt from the help to buy scheme, but this seems impossible now. I guess all we can do is wait, follow your videos and hope interest rates fall. Thanks again for taking the time to make these videos and share your views.

  • @richardstreet7518
    @richardstreet7518 2 роки тому +1

    The BOE has been performing QE for years which led to a rise in asset prices including housing... compounded by years of austerity instead of going for sustainable growth... now we have had a pandemic and a war in Europe too... plus the government give aways... things are catching up with us !!

  • @robertwinslade3104
    @robertwinslade3104 2 роки тому +3

    Would be interested to see you address land value taxes in a video

    • @daviddavies2945
      @daviddavies2945 2 роки тому

      Right to buy was a Thatcher con from the getgo. Unless the social housing stock was replenished, which it never has been, it was bound to result in a social renting sector disaster, Now we have a burgeoning class of modern day Rachmans ripping ordinary people to shreds with the private rented sector con, with no alternative for many.

  • @Capped-virus
    @Capped-virus 2 роки тому

    Always find your videos extremely insightful. You mention house prices continuing to rise in the mid to long term based on those that have benefited from government stimulus investing in additional property with little or no mortgage and that you feel interest rates will settle down along with inflation over a similar period...is there much danger do you think that if such a scenario plays out, typical home owners that pay down significant amounts of their mortgage over the next few years look to make large ticket purchases based on the value of their homes increasing? If the BoE feel an asset bubble is contributing to inflation then could we see much higher interest rates for longer?

  • @Charleighcharger
    @Charleighcharger Рік тому

    Gary, how do you counter the argument, if you tax them they will take their money abroad?

  • @maxgee1691
    @maxgee1691 2 роки тому

    We're about to start looking for a new mortgage deal - wrong time I know, but our current 2-year deal expires middle of next year. Starting to wonder whether it's wiser to go variable rate rather than risk locking in a higher rate, although it seems rates are currently falling due to Austerity 2.0's effect on the CoL crisis as Gary says here

  • @bw7043
    @bw7043 Рік тому

    Hi Gary,loving your work. Do you still have the same opinion on your forecast today given very recent events (base rate now 5%!!). Intrigued to know what your thoughts are for the next year/18months on interest rates.

  • @iamsimiller
    @iamsimiller 2 роки тому

    Another direct hit Gary. Throwing stones at an elephant unfortunately. We need a new government and hopefully you get a seat at the table economically.

  • @thechosenwon6762
    @thechosenwon6762 2 роки тому

    Been waiting for an update in these changing times

  • @PKSiAMiAM
    @PKSiAMiAM 2 роки тому

    I'm so glad when COVID hit I foresaw a big hit to the economy this then lead to me getting a fixed rate deal until 2026 at 2.15%. With that deal and having no debt other than my mortgage we are going to be ok. The only thing that is hurting at the moment is the house is a fair bit cooler as we try to use less heating.

  • @benghiskahn3673
    @benghiskahn3673 2 роки тому

    Energy commodity price inflation is the primary cause of what were experiencing at the moment. It creates further inflation in every other sector which is dependent on that energy, which is why practically everything is going up in tandem.

  • @mdhazeldine
    @mdhazeldine 2 роки тому +1

    As a self employed person renting a flat in Surrey, £12k in my bank account would be lovely, but unfortunately wouldn't go very far towards a deposit. Maybe it would be enough for some people to take them over the edge and be able to afford to buy, but for many it wouldn't. The problem is even bigger than just re-distributing that £750bn. That just gets us back to pre 2020, but we still need to build more houses to rebalance the supply/demand in the South East.

    • @markwelch3564
      @markwelch3564 2 роки тому

      More houses could be part of the solution, but creating more and better work across the country is the bigger part IMHO
      If we don't have huge numbers of people moving to the south for work, we wouldn't have so much pressure on housing in the area

  • @AceIslam
    @AceIslam Рік тому

    Hi Gary - Been watching you on TV and on youtube, you explain the transfer of wealth to the rich really well, but how do we as common people address this to reduce the tax burden on ordinary people who don’t have any real means of minimising their tax liability and successive governments don’t close the tax avoidance loopholes for the rich.

  • @source2950
    @source2950 2 роки тому +1

    How do you bet on housing prices going up? Or interest rates going up?

  • @Westlake72
    @Westlake72 2 роки тому

    Hi Gary, Love your videos - I'm learning a lot. A quick question: Why are Labour politicians reluctant to commit to taxing the very rich? I would understand their resistance to increasing taxes on middle-income earners or even those who are relatively well off, but why would a commitment to tax the very rich, who make up a tiny proportion of the electorate and would generally vote Tory anyway, be seen as a vote loser?

  • @specter1019
    @specter1019 2 роки тому +1

    I genuinely believe it's gonna be austerity season 2. I don't see any other way forward. That will force BoE to slash rates to encourage borrowing and investment and hopefully we'll have long-term low rates again.

  • @FallopianDismay
    @FallopianDismay Рік тому

    Thanks for this

  • @themarksmith
    @themarksmith 2 роки тому +6

    Thank you for what you do Gary!

  • @rwenzok
    @rwenzok 2 роки тому +1

    Why is it that when everything goes up in price it is inflation but when house prices go up its not inflation or it is good inflation. Stealing from future generations is not an investment strategy.

  • @lonevoice
    @lonevoice 2 роки тому +1

    I agree with Gary. There certainly seems to be a disconnect with reality in government over the past decade or so. Unfortunately I can't see any sign of resolution any time soon and little discussion about the obvious solutions.
    The problem is the affluent. By their nature the affluent always have a surplus over their spending requirements and that surplus always finds its way into assets. Assets such as property and shares are finite in size so more money chasing these assets invariably pushes up their prices. This is what we have seen and this effectively splits the economy.
    We effectively have the real economy of business, jobs and wealth creation and a separate economy of the affluent's static wealth. Government policy over recent times has been to get money out of the real economy and into that of the affluent with detrimental consequences.
    We saw under Cameron the slashing of large company corporation tax from 28% down to 19%, and the to rate of income tax from 50% down to 45%. Osborne said that it showed that the UK was open for business but was a complete failure. This I believe could easily be reversed. More importantly however is the report from the Wealth Tax Commission which estimates that £260bn could be gained from a one off wealth tax of 1% on family assets over £1million. These are the areas which I believe government should focus but we all know they won't.

  • @jpswerve182
    @jpswerve182 2 роки тому

    Hi Gary, could you do a video on "Shorting Stocks"? I just can't understand how people have the nerve to borrow someone else's stock to resell over and give back the stock in time.