Investors Analyze India, Mexico and South Africa Elections

DoubleLine Global Bond Portfolio Manager Bill Campbell moderates a June 6, 2024, discussion with fellow Portfolio Manager Valerie Ho and Sovereign Analyst Nicholas Engler on the national elections recently held in India, Mexico and South Africa. Among the topics covered:
(0:57) Valerie Ho’s views on the surprising loss of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s congressional majority. India Prime Minister Narendra Modi had expected his BJP and allies to gain seats in the elections ended June 2.
(3:30) In the future, a slower pace of business-friendly reform, particularly with respect to land and labor reforms.
(5:39) DoubleLine’s favorable outlook for the Indian economy, given a growing 1.4 billion population, with over 50% under the age of 30, benefits from the realignment of global supply chains and relatively robust economic fundamentals.
(7:26) Nicholas Engler’s identifying voter dissatisfaction in South Africa “with the amount of corruption at all levels of government” and the African National Congress’s failure to improve living standards as drivers behind the ANC’s loss of single-party control for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994.
(9:52) Business-friendly and -unfriendly scenarios as the ANC tries to broker power-sharing deals with other political parties to cobble together a voting majority in the National Assembly and form a government.
(14:58) In Mexico, Valerie Ho’s take on Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential election victory by a wider-than-expected margin with enlarged majorities for her political party, Morena, in the lower and upper houses of the Mexican congress, an outcome that rattled currency markets.
(16:16) Market concerns of possible radical constitutional changes in the wake of a strengthened Morena governing party, perhaps even as soon as September by outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
(19:59) Risks to Mexico posed by different scenarios in the U.S. presidential and congressional elections in November.