An essay of mine on Aeschylus and the fourth turning of Ancient Greece has been accepted into a humanities conference. I make sure to share the video with you after I present it. Keep up the good work.
Also it would be interesting as to why this would not be considered a fourth turning. Surely there are some that see this as a 2nd turning for through their lens.
It’s a slow burn right up to the apex crisis and then its raging fire. The US involvement in WWII, US Civil War and the Revolution (a little longer) were all over and done in less than 5 years. All conflicts had a familiar build up though.
It very well might be...although, I said the same thing last year. One thing's for sure: things are getting crazier, and they won't get less crazy anytime soon.
I never understood how the Awakening (2nd Turning) can be interpreted as going on till as late as 1984. The protests and counterculture were the most central themes of the Awakening and almost everything we associate with that was very much dormant by the time Jimmy Carter was in the White House. I would say the 3rd Turning (Unraveling) would surely have begun around 1980 at the very latest with Reagan's election or maybe two or three years earlier. Things like tax revolts and tax cuts mixed with the Iran hostage crisis of 1979 seem to be more consistent with that of an unraveling rather than an awakening in the general sense. In the sense that things and old ways do indeed start to unravel. As for when our 4th Turning began I don't see how or why 9/11 can't be seen as the turning point. The response and after effects of it shook and changed the world, there is absolutely no downplaying it whatsoever and the crises it triggered. A lot of old freedoms we took for granted were never the same again. Strauss and Howe did predict that the impending 4th Turning would have a catalyst that is very sudden and dramatic and lists a major terror attack, a big financial collapse and a global pandemic being the likely sparks. Indeed all three have occurred but it was the major terror attack that happened first. The ending? The absolute s***show year that was 2020 really must have been the start of the climax part like WW2 was to the last 4th Turning and levels of unprecedented unrest seen in the post-1945 world, certainly the free world and the war going on in Ukraine right now (feeling like a proxy world war?) sound like the very turbulent conclusions comparable with previous 4th Turnings. When will it mercifully be over? Perhaps around 2026 or 2028 and no later. Why not?
The timing of each era can't be separated from generational changes. Not only are those clear in retrospect looking back through history, but they were felt and were usually plainly visible at the time or times in question. 1984 is the right year for the beginning of the Unraveling. The re-protection of kids which started to make its impact felt in 82 is characteristic of changes that have happened in other eras. But the re-protection of kids doesn't start Unravelings; it marks the dying embers of the Awakening, shortly before the Unraveling actually begins. 9/11 was too early for the Crisis to begin. The oldest Boomers weren't yet 60, the oldest Xers were barely 40, the oldest Millennials weren't yet 20. But just as importantly, if 9/11 really had begun the Crisis, the reaction to the withdrawal from Afghanistan 18 months ago would have been ENORMOUS. You would have seen headlines about "the end of the American empire", in every news publication, on every news segment, in books...the event would have been a LOT bigger than it was, if that had been the case. This Crisis isn't going to end for at LEAST another five years. Events are moving much too slowly. Both the generations and events aspects have to be balanced in making these assessments. By the way, I might be off by two or three years in my basic prediction of when this ends. But I'd wager everything I own that this isn't still going in 2035.
@@generationreport Sorry but what do you mean by the "re-protection of kids"? And does each turning, especially the Crisis, have to start when each generation is at a specific age?
@@jmxtvarchive9064 Xers vs Millennials. 81 babies are Xers; 82 babies are Millennials. Read about the Adam Walsh murder in 81; it was THE pivot point in bringing about modern protective parenting. Much of the difference between Xers and Millennials rests from that time and that shift. And no it doesn't. But there's never been an instance in modern history when a turning started as the leading edge of a generation was 19. It's never happened. 9/11 was too early for the fourth turning to begin.
@@generationreport Yet according to that book the fourth turning of the saeculum before last, the one ending with the American Civil War, only lasted six years.
@@jmxtvarchive9064 And the reason for that is because, according to their argument, the Crisis materialized so fast and so malevolently, that it virtually destroyed the country. The way they phrase the argument, the more I read it, is clunky. But I think its logic works. In terms of length, the Civil War Crisis is the exception that proves the rule.
Economic cycles suggest that there may be difficult times up to 2034 and beyond, so IDK if that is a good kind of pain like the 1980s or a bad kind of pain like the 1930s, though this is just a probability and not certainty
![ПОЛНАЯ ИСТОРИЯ ЭКЗОРЦИЗМА [Топ Сикрет]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/qBySr6Bt0B8/mqdefault.jpg)
An essay of mine on Aeschylus and the fourth turning of Ancient Greece has been accepted into a humanities conference. I make sure to share the video with you after I present it. Keep up the good work.
Thanks...good luck!
I'd be interested in seeing this as well, if you are planning to make it public. Thanks!
It’ll be great if you could do some long form style videos. Fascinating subject.
Also it would be interesting as to why this would not be considered a fourth turning. Surely there are some that see this as a 2nd turning for through their lens.
It’s a slow burn right up to the apex crisis and then its raging fire. The US involvement in WWII, US Civil War and the Revolution (a little longer) were all over and done in less than 5 years. All conflicts had a familiar build up though.
Slowly, then all at once.
Do you think 2023 might a gateway year? I think given how's we already had some crazy events and it's just March.
It very well might be...although, I said the same thing last year. One thing's for sure: things are getting crazier, and they won't get less crazy anytime soon.
@@generationreport Guess that means should buckle up and prepare for the crazy ride.
@@Coldsummer91 Yup. In the meantime, please share my content with other people. I work very hard on it.
I never understood how the Awakening (2nd Turning) can be interpreted as going on till as late as 1984. The protests and counterculture were the most central themes of the Awakening and almost everything we associate with that was very much dormant by the time Jimmy Carter was in the White House.
I would say the 3rd Turning (Unraveling) would surely have begun around 1980 at the very latest with Reagan's election or maybe two or three years earlier. Things like tax revolts and tax cuts mixed with the Iran hostage crisis of 1979 seem to be more consistent with that of an unraveling rather than an awakening in the general sense. In the sense that things and old ways do indeed start to unravel.
As for when our 4th Turning began I don't see how or why 9/11 can't be seen as the turning point. The response and after effects of it shook and changed the world, there is absolutely no downplaying it whatsoever and the crises it triggered. A lot of old freedoms we took for granted were never the same again. Strauss and Howe did predict that the impending 4th Turning would have a catalyst that is very sudden and dramatic and lists a major terror attack, a big financial collapse and a global pandemic being the likely sparks. Indeed all three have occurred but it was the major terror attack that happened first.
The ending? The absolute s***show year that was 2020 really must have been the start of the climax part like WW2 was to the last 4th Turning and levels of unprecedented unrest seen in the post-1945 world, certainly the free world and the war going on in Ukraine right now (feeling like a proxy world war?) sound like the very turbulent conclusions comparable with previous 4th Turnings.
When will it mercifully be over? Perhaps around 2026 or 2028 and no later. Why not?
The timing of each era can't be separated from generational changes. Not only are those clear in retrospect looking back through history, but they were felt and were usually plainly visible at the time or times in question.
1984 is the right year for the beginning of the Unraveling. The re-protection of kids which started to make its impact felt in 82 is characteristic of changes that have happened in other eras. But the re-protection of kids doesn't start Unravelings; it marks the dying embers of the Awakening, shortly before the Unraveling actually begins.
9/11 was too early for the Crisis to begin. The oldest Boomers weren't yet 60, the oldest Xers were barely 40, the oldest Millennials weren't yet 20. But just as importantly, if 9/11 really had begun the Crisis, the reaction to the withdrawal from Afghanistan 18 months ago would have been ENORMOUS. You would have seen headlines about "the end of the American empire", in every news publication, on every news segment, in books...the event would have been a LOT bigger than it was, if that had been the case.
This Crisis isn't going to end for at LEAST another five years. Events are moving much too slowly. Both the generations and events aspects have to be balanced in making these assessments. By the way, I might be off by two or three years in my basic prediction of when this ends. But I'd wager everything I own that this isn't still going in 2035.
@@generationreport Sorry but what do you mean by the "re-protection of kids"?
And does each turning, especially the Crisis, have to start when each generation is at a specific age?
@@jmxtvarchive9064 Xers vs Millennials. 81 babies are Xers; 82 babies are Millennials. Read about the Adam Walsh murder in 81; it was THE pivot point in bringing about modern protective parenting. Much of the difference between Xers and Millennials rests from that time and that shift.
And no it doesn't. But there's never been an instance in modern history when a turning started as the leading edge of a generation was 19. It's never happened. 9/11 was too early for the fourth turning to begin.
@@generationreport Yet according to that book the fourth turning of the saeculum before last, the one ending with the American Civil War, only lasted six years.
@@jmxtvarchive9064 And the reason for that is because, according to their argument, the Crisis materialized so fast and so malevolently, that it virtually destroyed the country. The way they phrase the argument, the more I read it, is clunky. But I think its logic works. In terms of length, the Civil War Crisis is the exception that proves the rule.
Economic cycles suggest that there may be difficult times up to 2034 and beyond, so IDK if that is a good kind of pain like the 1980s or a bad kind of pain like the 1930s, though this is just a probability and not certainty