Exponential Distribution! AWESOME EXPLANATION. Why is it called "Exponential"?

Поділитися
Вставка
  • Опубліковано 22 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 230

  • @dnsh777
    @dnsh777 4 роки тому +84

    This channel is underrated.

  • @irfansayed414
    @irfansayed414 Рік тому +6

    Over the years, I have searched literally dozens of text books and articles to get an idea why the exponential distribution is a declining curve. This is the first instance that I have encountered a 'success' -- to use a statistical jargon. A similar reasoning explains the exponential smoothing model for forecasting, and only a couple of authors have really bothered to explain it. Great job Justin! Pretty soon, I guess you will need to revise the number of visits to your website!!!!! Thanks a lot!

  • @harshmalik3470
    @harshmalik3470 10 місяців тому +7

    All of your videos keep giving me the Eureka moment at some point in the video. Keep doing what you're doing ZED. Lots of love and admiration.

  • @enchanted_swiftie
    @enchanted_swiftie Рік тому +2

    This channel gets me some internel confidence that the topic I am searching for hours on the internet *will* be resolved with more than enough depth with the clarity needed.

  • @RD-lf3pt
    @RD-lf3pt 4 роки тому +49

    Fantastic, zed statistics! This should be the number 1 option for explaining this topic out there! This is awesome (and what learning should be like). Thanks!

  • @bhavasindhu
    @bhavasindhu 5 років тому +23

    The best intuitive video on exponential distribution I have seen so far.. Thanks Justin for sharing.

    • @RD-lf3pt
      @RD-lf3pt 4 роки тому +1

      Best I've seen by far

  • @thomascao-t8s
    @thomascao-t8s 4 роки тому +7

    your voice so soothing bruh, it plug all the theories into my head perfectly

  • @swkim371
    @swkim371 4 роки тому +5

    Justin explains exactly what I was wondering about the concept, or the big picture, about Exponential Distribution. I wanted so badly to interpret its graph, but there was no tutorial that told me about it until I reached this video. And this one is amazing! It just enlightens all that I wanted to know about this subject. Thanks a lot, Justin!

  • @Doodle-p1m
    @Doodle-p1m 2 роки тому +1

    This video and this channel are definitely the statistics explained in an intuitive way at its best. Love it and feel fortunate to find this resource. THANK YOU!

  • @TUMENG-TSUNGF
    @TUMENG-TSUNGF Рік тому +1

    Another way to get an intuition for the shape of the exponential distribution would be to draw events on a number line you first draw them equal width apart (if it’s 3 hours per event then draw them one hour apart). Now sample 1 point per hour or something like that, you’ll see that the waiting times follow a uniform distribution. Now we can try to “randomize” the intervals a bit aka move the events around by for example one event 2 hours early and another 2 hours late to balance it out (so that the average rate stays the same). You can see that for the two intervals surrounding the event that’s moved two hours early, they were originally both 3 hours. Then, after the move, they become 1 and 5 hours. For the first interval, all waiting times within 1 hour still remain, on the other hand, higher waiting times between 1 and 3 hours are stripped away and converted to waiting times 3-5 hours in the second intervals. Higher waiting times have a higher chance of being converted to even higher waiting times, but lower waiting times do not. That’s why the density is higher towards shorter waiting times. I hope it makes sense.
    Another even simpler way to look at it is: if we sample the waiting times once per hour, for every waiting time of 3 hours, there MUST be one sample each for 2, 1 and 0 hours between it and the next event. On the other hand, if you have a waiting time of 1 hour, there isn’t a guarantee that there exist waiting times higher than 1 hour. In general terms, an instance of a longer waiting time corresponds to one instance each of all the waiting times shorter than it; however, the opposite doesn’t hold true (an instance of a shorter waiting time doesn’t guarantee an instance of any higher waiting time). That’s why the density HAS TO decrease towards higher waiting times.

  • @athar786100
    @athar786100 Рік тому +1

    Brilliant teacher , very clear with a commonsense approach.

  • @calambuhayjr.josevirgiliog2094
    @calambuhayjr.josevirgiliog2094 3 роки тому

    All I can say is Thank you from the bottom of my heart.... This saved me...

  • @brennawalker9292
    @brennawalker9292 4 роки тому +2

    You seriously rock! I have a test in a few days, and I have watched all of your videos regarding probability distributions. Feeling much much better! Again, thanks so much :)

  • @ericfuerderer1832
    @ericfuerderer1832 6 місяців тому

    Clearest stats video I have ever watched. Thank you

  • @stephenburke9909
    @stephenburke9909 4 роки тому +16

    Would have been nice to state that the y-axis on the exponential dist is lambda for the PDF and a percentage for the CDF.
    Unlike the Poisson Dist as both are in percentage.
    This confused me as I wasn't sure what the Y axis meant. I naturally thought percentage and was wondering why nothing was adding up correctly especially at 16:44 - I was like, it should equal 0.025 or 2.5% which is of course wrong. I watched the whole video with the wrong assumption haha

    • @kushik.naveen
      @kushik.naveen 3 роки тому

      It's mentioned on the y axis, the values. So it's kinda self explanatory 😅

    • @HR-ke1hv
      @HR-ke1hv 3 роки тому

      you are right my friend. I had the same doubt throughout the video

    • @NickHope
      @NickHope 8 місяців тому

      - The Y axis on the exponential distribution PDF does not represent Lambda (nor the probability). It actually represents the PROBABILITY DENSITY, which is the RELATIVE LIKELIHOOD of each value on the X axis occurring. It's scale (0 to 3 in this case) is such that the total area under the graph = 1. But you're right that this was not explained at all in the video.
      - The Y axis on the exponential CDF and the Poisson distributions is probability, on a scale of 0 to 1, and not percentage, which would have a scale of 0 to 100.

  • @arunrajbhandari1656
    @arunrajbhandari1656 2 місяці тому

    I swear bro you are one of the best teachers out there!

  • @AmeerulIslam
    @AmeerulIslam 4 роки тому +4

    the last few minutes gave the most important intuition! Thanks! 17:05 Why is it called "Exponential"??

    • @NickHope
      @NickHope 8 місяців тому

      Because 0.95 keeps getting multiplied by itself in the function. In other words, it is a constant being raised to a power, which is the nature of an exponential function.

  • @BasuthkarKiran
    @BasuthkarKiran 6 місяців тому +1

    Thanks for the wonderful explanation. Just one confusion in the section "Visualisation (PDF and CDF)" - the Exponential distribution graph at @6:35 minutes is correct? because on the Y-axis you have put values greater than 1. but shouldn't these values be less than 1 representing the probability?

  • @karolsowa4402
    @karolsowa4402 4 роки тому +2

    Wow. Just wow. This video is marvellous! We really appreciate your effort!

  • @sultanhaiderwadoodmufti4829
    @sultanhaiderwadoodmufti4829 2 роки тому +1

    Thank you just soooo much! May the lord give you paradise in this in this one and afterlife.

  • @MZmakesgames
    @MZmakesgames 4 роки тому +2

    Omg, cant believe this video doesnt have more likes! top level sta video!

  • @yuganderu5645
    @yuganderu5645 4 роки тому

    Sir you are sooo kind person, you didn't let us to watch the entire poisson distribution video unlike many youtubers who take advantage of this and make viewers watch multiple videos, Sir you are super. Namaskaram sir🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

  • @belzhang5745
    @belzhang5745 3 роки тому

    The way you explained why the pdf looks like it is really amazing! Thank you! I finally realized exponential is related to binomial distribution!

  • @ChetanSingh-om7gk
    @ChetanSingh-om7gk Рік тому

    The last problem was just a fantastic one. First you treat it as an exponential distribution, so the probability of within one min becomes your probability of success. Then you treat it as geometric distribution. Brilliant!

  • @adityaswaroop1596
    @adityaswaroop1596 2 роки тому

    Best content for learning statistics for data science

  • @ContessaCavalier
    @ContessaCavalier 3 роки тому

    This really helps me understand how the statistical tests built on these distribution works!

  • @jonathshijan
    @jonathshijan 3 місяці тому +1

    Prob that visitor lands before 6:01 and before 6:21 are the same due to memorylessness. When applying the same logic to the problem you solved last, I don't get the logic behind the probabilities differing. Those should also be the same using the same logic and memorylessness?

  • @observever7808
    @observever7808 4 роки тому +1

    Brilliant, loved the simple PDF explanation at the end

  • @kushik.naveen
    @kushik.naveen 3 роки тому

    Best channel for Statistics!!!

  • @ramanujraychoudhury4398
    @ramanujraychoudhury4398 3 роки тому

    This is a kind request to have a video series on Permutation, Combination ,Probability and Calculas. I must say your videos are very awesome. The way you explained things is fantastic. Thanks Justin

  • @jitendranath4058
    @jitendranath4058 3 роки тому

    I understand how simple it is just because of your this video. Thank you so much.

  • @rruihh5311
    @rruihh5311 3 роки тому

    you re video is just perfect. you also explain very well why things are like this or like that

  • @archerdev
    @archerdev 2 місяці тому +1

    pois(X) and exp(X) bless you sir for this great lecture. Wonderful.

  • @dominiclederer9564
    @dominiclederer9564 9 місяців тому

    These videos are incredibly informative ! I encourage you make some more !!!

  • @jediTempleGuard
    @jediTempleGuard 2 роки тому

    Awesome. Especially, the last sections explanation was crystal clear. Thank you.

  • @andreaLA222
    @andreaLA222 3 роки тому

    Best intuitive explanation I’ve found. Thanks!

  • @kanikabagree1084
    @kanikabagree1084 4 роки тому

    This video is amazing the only video which explains exponential distribution in depth . Thankyou so much

  • @zubairafzal6812
    @zubairafzal6812 4 роки тому

    Great explanation. Cannot be better than that. Crystal clear my concept. Thanks

  • @joycwang
    @joycwang 2 роки тому

    UA-cam algorithms must be pretty good that it didn’t take me long to find this video on exponential distribution >< This one answered my question exactly which is why the exponential pdf looks like the way it does. Took me to click on 4 different videos and maybe 20mins of watching in total to get to this one

  • @NickHope
    @NickHope 8 місяців тому +2

    The axes on the graphs could do with some explanation...
    6:06 On the Poisson distribution PMF graph on the left:
    - The X axis represents unique visitors to the website per hour.
    - The Y axis represents the probability of each discrete number of people visiting per hour.
    On the Exponential distribution PDF graph on the right:
    - The X axis represents hours until next arrival.
    - The Y axis does NOT represent the probability itself, which would have a scale of 0 to 1. Rather, the Y axis represents the PROBABILITY DENSITY, which is the RELATIVE LIKELIHOOD of each value on the X axis occurring. It's scale (0 to 3 in this case) is such that the total area under the graph = 1.
    08:27 - On both CDF graphs, the Y axes DO represent the probability (scale 0 - 1).
    10:21 until the end - The Y axis still represents the probability density (converted for minutes) and not the actual probability.
    17:10 The explanation is a bit misleading. It doesn't explain why the graph falls; if the Y axis represented the probability of visitors arriving within discrete periods on the X axis, it would fall anyway, in a linear fashion, so that the product of the values on the X and Y axes remained uniform. But it does explain why the graph is CONCAVE, due the exponential nature of the function, and not linear. It's also unfortunate and confusing in this example that the PROBABILITY DENSITY at 0 minutes (0.05) is the same figure as the PROBABILITY that a visitor lands within each minute (0.05). They are not the same thing.

    • @rom3o.s_regr3t
      @rom3o.s_regr3t 3 місяці тому

      Thank you Nick! ❤

    • @NickHope
      @NickHope 3 місяці тому

      @@rom3o.s_regr3t You are welcome, Bontle :)

  • @shubhamjain4086
    @shubhamjain4086 4 роки тому

    The best video for understanding exp dist...loved the way it explains!

  • @Eagle-eyed978
    @Eagle-eyed978 4 роки тому +1

    I think one of the best explanations on Exponential Distribution. Could you please share any content with its link to CTMC and Transient Analysis.

  • @aimanali9868
    @aimanali9868 4 місяці тому

    Man i would have never understood it any other way. Outstanding explanation 👏👏👏

  • @ahmedraouf1518
    @ahmedraouf1518 4 роки тому

    Appreciating your smart way to lead us through exponential distribution

  • @shambo9807
    @shambo9807 3 роки тому

    Saving lives. My lecturer and textbook use lambda as both the Poisson mean and Exponential mean. Can't begin to explain how many hours I wasted not realising they were referring to two different means. Thought I was losing it. Was ready to drop out of math and try my luck in humanities.

  • @prashant0104
    @prashant0104 4 роки тому

    amazing videos. your explanations, oration, recording, and visuals all are superb!

  • @RaynerGS
    @RaynerGS 3 роки тому

    Amazing Class! Salute from Brazil.

  • @suryanshmahajan6717
    @suryanshmahajan6717 4 роки тому +1

    Ohh man you made me very clear on exponential distribution thank you so much for it . Also please make a video on Gamma distribution

  • @balagopallalpet872
    @balagopallalpet872 5 років тому +2

    Awesome explanation, Sir

  • @HermioneSharman15
    @HermioneSharman15 4 роки тому

    Thank You so much for the explanation in the "exactly" scenario, zedstatistics. This helped me a lot. Thanks a million.

  • @lynncho568
    @lynncho568 4 роки тому

    very very clear explanation. Thank so much. You did help me to understand Possion and Exponential!

  • @ling6701
    @ling6701 2 роки тому

    Best explanations ever. Thanks.

  • @ThepExcel
    @ThepExcel Рік тому

    wow! really good explaination

  • @iamzeyadzidan
    @iamzeyadzidan 3 роки тому

    This video really helped me a lot understanding the difference between Poisson and Exponential distributions. Outstanding ❤ Thank you and keep up the good work 🙏🏻

  • @12345saha
    @12345saha 2 роки тому

    Simply superb, thanks for making these videos. Hope you keep making more videos on statistics!

  • @laaarsas2
    @laaarsas2 Рік тому +1

    @7:36 what is the unit on the Y-axis of the graph to the right?

    • @NickHope
      @NickHope 8 місяців тому +1

      The Y axis represents the PROBABILITY DENSITY, which is the RELATIVE LIKELIHOOD of each value on the X axis occurring. It's scale (0 to 3 in this case) is such that the total area under the graph = 1.

  • @croissaux
    @croissaux 3 роки тому +1

    14:35 4th line
    since it is cdf, wouldnt it be P(X

    • @NickHope
      @NickHope 8 місяців тому

      Not really, because the X axis is continuous, rather than showing discrete values. 30 minutes is a moment in time on the X axis, with zero width. So the probability of the next visitor arriving at exactly 30 minutes is 0. So 'P(X

  • @asishcodes
    @asishcodes Рік тому

    You are so good in explaining maths.

  • @ayushkumarsingh8020
    @ayushkumarsingh8020 3 роки тому

    Thank u so much!These lectures are very intutive!!

  • @HonestADVexplorer
    @HonestADVexplorer 3 роки тому

    Did I just learn what exponential distribution is? :)
    Thank you!

  • @okier7
    @okier7 3 роки тому

    Wow this is soo coool! It is a great addition to "Practical statistics for data scientists" book. Thanks!

  • @onurd2195
    @onurd2195 2 роки тому

    archangel of stats explanations thx zed

  • @maryland19921
    @maryland19921 3 роки тому

    You are an incredible instructor.

  • @mayankchauhan6680
    @mayankchauhan6680 4 роки тому

    After seeking around a lot of videos its the only video which shows why its PDF looks the way it looks

  • @alexsasmrchannel
    @alexsasmrchannel 5 років тому +1

    Great video thanks for the help!

  • @anmolpardeshi3138
    @anmolpardeshi3138 21 день тому

    in section 4, where you calculate F(x) ie CDf, it should have an integral formula, correct? for within 10 minutes, it would be integral from zero to 10 where that integral evaluated at t=0 is zero [1-e^0] and at t=10 the pdf f(x) is 1-e^(-x/u) is 0.39. but not sure where the integral is rules are being applied - meaning, integral of x is x^2/2 so what would be integral of 1-e^(-x/u) and then that integrals answer should be evaluated at t=0 and t=10.

  • @inamahdi7959
    @inamahdi7959 7 місяців тому +1

    Interesting. when you were explaining the pdf, I couldn't help but notice that behavior was similar to the geometric distribution. I wonder why.

  • @Muzahid19dec
    @Muzahid19dec 3 роки тому

    This topic was explained very nicely. Thank you.

  • @aneesarom
    @aneesarom Рік тому

    your explanations are really great. could you do more distrubution videos

  • @dindor138
    @dindor138 3 роки тому

    He's the teacher we never had.

  • @redouanekassa9453
    @redouanekassa9453 3 роки тому +1

    Hi, first, grangrats for this amazing channel. I've got a question. In timestamp 17:00? Shouldn't we say probability for the second hand side statement should be formulated as P(20

    • @tikku195
      @tikku195 3 роки тому

      Did you find the answer to the question? I have the same doubt

    • @tikku195
      @tikku195 3 роки тому

      Oh great! FYI- People dying from Keto will perhaps follow a Poisson distribution 😀. And the reason will most likely be kidney failure and not rise in HbA1c

    • @kandelaarjan363
      @kandelaarjan363 7 місяців тому

      what's the answer?

  • @kandelaarjan363
    @kandelaarjan363 7 місяців тому

    At 18:18 i dont' think the probability is the same -should be formulated as P(20

  • @leventnergiz
    @leventnergiz 8 місяців тому

    Damn that's awesome! Now i understand where the ' exponential' came from.🎉

  • @dm3248
    @dm3248 3 роки тому

    I always thumps up before watching you're videos :p

  • @yuanyuanli3112
    @yuanyuanli3112 4 роки тому +1

    Hi, could you make a video about Gamma distribution? Thanks

  • @henrmota
    @henrmota 4 роки тому +2

    The last part reminds me of the binomial distribution without de combinations in the formula.

  • @lonandon
    @lonandon 3 роки тому

    What's difference between the problem at 18:48 and the problem at 20:24?

  • @linalee481
    @linalee481 3 роки тому

    so cool, I wondered why distribution looks like that. so clear now!

  • @soonerbjj
    @soonerbjj 5 років тому +2

    Fantastic video. Keep it up.

  • @ksreynosomoreno7036
    @ksreynosomoreno7036 4 роки тому

    Okay, okay, so anyone would listen to Justin explain even how sand is made. Thanks for the video !

    • @zedstatistics
      @zedstatistics  4 роки тому +1

      Sand videos, hey? That's really gonna take my channel in a different direction but let's do it!

  • @youcefyahiaoui1465
    @youcefyahiaoui1465 2 роки тому

    Hello, First I would like to express my appreciation and admiration for the epic way you're teaching these topics with a big time THANK YOU. I do want to ask this question pertaining to the Poisson requirement that the events must occur at a constant rate paradox. If they're occuring at a constant rate. Does this requirement apply on the average sense? Otherwise, if the rate of events (events per time) is constant, then why are what is the purpose of the distribution?

  • @komuna5984
    @komuna5984 2 роки тому

    This was really helpful! Thanks a lot for your kind effort.

  • @sephdisclosed
    @sephdisclosed 3 роки тому

    In getting the probability for the visitor to land within third minute, why dont we just do P(X

  • @mohdathar10
    @mohdathar10 5 років тому +2

    Hello Sir, I have watched many of your vedios..And I really like those.. Kindly make one vedio on endowgenity. or suggest me some source.
    Thank you.🙂

  • @mytissue97
    @mytissue97 10 місяців тому

    Really fantastic! I know this distribution better than ever! btw, can you teach two more distribution - the gamma and the beta distribution. Thank you so much for your explanation anyway😄!

  • @rishabhnarula1999
    @rishabhnarula1999 Рік тому +1

    thank you sir, great explanations and really helpful 😅😅👌👍
    though in between the moments i do notice certain use of of rough language, just an advise on what could make these better. Personally i really like the way Mr. Grant on 3B1B talks, utterly admiring the beauty of the subject.😅😊
    (to be quite precise, the beauties of geometrical patterns in curves of graphs and sequences and series that make them look the way they do, shall never be compared to a can of worms in my opinion, i am sorry)

  • @TishvikSharma
    @TishvikSharma Рік тому

    Hi thanks for making these videos, can you make one such video on Kappa values and Weibull distribution

  • @waynemahlungwa2278
    @waynemahlungwa2278 4 роки тому

    thank you so much for the explanation on exponential distribution i found it easy to understand

  • @anantjain3031
    @anantjain3031 3 роки тому

    Thank you very helpful, can you please do a video on gamma distributions

  • @DanielTysonM
    @DanielTysonM 3 роки тому

    Does it make sense to look at the probability of an event occurring between two points for an exponential distribution?

  • @maryaslane1937
    @maryaslane1937 2 роки тому

    I cannot thank you enough for this video

  • @CV_CA
    @CV_CA 8 місяців тому

    3:00 The horse kick deaths were decreasing by the same ratio as soldiers got run over by cars.

  • @karpagams2236
    @karpagams2236 Рік тому

    Sir, can you please explain random variable to Probability distribution function of Continuous case.

  • @tahamansoor6548
    @tahamansoor6548 Рік тому

    Thank you so much. This was very well explained.

  • @vickylin715
    @vickylin715 3 роки тому +1

    Thank you very much for the video. Very well explained! One thing I don't understand is that at 8:57, the CDF graph on the right is different from the one at 10:21. I understand that to address the question about having arrivals within 10 mins, we need to use CDF, but why are these two CDF graphs different? I am a bit confused. Also, could you help explained the transformation you did at 10:21? I understand that you want to look at minutes instead of hours, but the y-axis was also changed from number of visitors to probability and the graphs look the same! What kind of transformation you did there? Would appreciate your help!

    • @NickHope
      @NickHope 8 місяців тому

      - Regarding your 1st question, the graph on the left shows the cumulative probability of visitors per hour. The graph on the right shows the cumulative probability of hours until the next arrival. They're just 2 different (but related) things.
      - Regarding your 2nd question, the Y axis did not change from number of visitors to probability. In both cases, the Y axis represents the PROBABILITY DENSITY, which is the RELATIVE LIKELIHOOD of each value on the X axis occurring (with a scale such that the total area under the graph = 1). This was not explained in the video. When he changed the X axis to minutes, the probability density just got converted for minutes, and ended up looking like probability itself, but it isn't.

  • @rozakhakimova
    @rozakhakimova 3 роки тому

    Thank you! So easy and clear ❤️🙏🏻

  • @jonmoore8995
    @jonmoore8995 2 роки тому

    Fantastic. Keep up your good work!

  • @imi1458
    @imi1458 4 місяці тому

    Wow. That is all I can say.
    It’s all so clear now😌

  • @TweakBug
    @TweakBug 3 роки тому +4

    Hi , in the initial PDF of the exponential (hours), how is it possible to take values upto 3.0 on the Y-axis ? Also, how can we intuitively understand the 'mean' of the exponential distribution from its graph ? Thanks

    • @NickHope
      @NickHope 8 місяців тому

      Regarding your 1st question, the Y axis on the exponential distribution PDF does not represent the probability (on a scale of 0 to 1). It actually represents the PROBABILITY DENSITY, which is the RELATIVE LIKELIHOOD of each value on the X axis occurring. It's scale (0 to 3 in this case) is such that the total area under the graph = 1. This wasn't explained in the video.
      Regarding your 2nd question, you can visually divide the area under the graph in half, vertically, and see where that line intersects the X axis, which isn't easy or accurate.

  • @bhavanisankarlenka
    @bhavanisankarlenka 2 місяці тому

    Thankyouuuu so much!❤❤, Very well explained