OH LUCKY DAY! | Arena Open Day 2 | MKM Karlov Manor Draft | MTG Arena
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- Опубліковано 5 жов 2024
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![He Made [NO ARTIFACT] Warwick Reroll Work! | In Too Deep with Frodan](/img/n.gif)
I'm sure this day was so frustrating but I know I - and I'm sure I'm not alone - have been so invested in these arena open videos all week and they have been so entertaining and gripping! Thanks Nummy for all you do!
Fun content regardless. I know it can be frustrating but you truly bring a lot of much needed relaxation to our lives through your videos. It is greatly appreciated.
Well said.
Man, that's why I love you, Nummy. The SALT levels must have been insane, especially after Game 1, yet you never raged. Now please go drink 5 gallons of water for that salt, we want you in good health 😂❤
5 GALLONS!? HAVE YOU HEARD OF HYPONATREMIA!?
M1G1, I think binding must be the correct play? With investigator in play, using the last card is a huge plus. OP can't exactly sit back and bluff tricks / keep cards in hand. Worst case scenario OP plays a removal / huge brick wall flier... which leaves us in an advantageous position anyway. Not exactly ever playing around a mythic, but when I was watching it, I was thinking of...
Granite Witness / Stalker / Phantom / Savior / Moroii ... all leaves us without lethal next turn. I mean... we had to bind it the following turn anyway before attacking for lethal.
We still love you though Kenji =) This format has been brutal for you, we hope you feel better soon.
That's magic baby.
That game 1 Im not sure I agree with the reasoning. That disguise creature could have been a flyer or a reach creature or that gargoyle that taps thing down and also flies along with the bomb potential. It is that unknown card vs 1 unknown off the top. Seems better to me to answer whats on the board rather than the top of an unknown deck.
Thanks for taking us on the journey with you, Kenji! Epic week of videos
Game 1 must have been insanely tilting. 1 lander into 1 lander into no lander???? Then OP hits the most insanely clutch top decks. Props for staying composed and thanks as always for the content.
Man this journey was such a rollercoaster... heartbreaking to see all the super low lows of the variance..
Hope you keep your head up and move on to the next one!
Thanks for sharing with us this journey Nummy!
Thanks for all the content! I was practically shouting at my phone for you to bind the disguise in game 1 😅
Me too. I was counting the creatures for an op “on the job” and removing one was the smart thing to do. Of course you remove the unknown.
Yeah it's not even a hindsight decision, that was the obvious play for me..
Yeah that was extremely unexpected for him not to use the removal there. I was screaming! I can't believe that punt lol
Oh well, on to the next.
Yeah, there's just no reason to chance it honestly. Even if it wasn't Vindicator and was just a crocodelf or the 6/7, you should just spend your mana and keep the threats contained I think. It being vindicator was a surprise blowout though.
I wonder whether this had anything to do with the opponent being a monster pro. I've seen many people (myself included) fall victim to an assumed obligation to play "extra tricky", when the obvious move would do
I disagree that waiting in game 1 was the right decision. There are 37 disguises in MKM, 26 of which are in OP's colors. 7 of those prevent next turn lethal already (+5 with right mana draw).
Focusing on commonly played white disguises, the options are: dog walker, witness, nightwatch, savior, and gatekeeper. 3 out of the 5 stop lethal. It's more likely the disguise will stop lethal than the chance they draw a flier, with the additional benefit of having mana available the next turn.
what they said;
sometimes brain doesn't work when shuffler gives you 4 4 4
And is not just about opponent preventing lethal, he is going to be forced to block with no way to turn the tables against On the Job and a disguised Greenbelt Radical with the 7th land draw.
Besides, he may be playing another color not shown on the table, (gravestone strider generating blue for exit specialist ability).
Yeah huge missed opportunity to just cast the spell while fighting from behind with a 4 card keep and go for it, this kind if hesitation had really been costing Nunot this entire set
A week of Saturdays on UA-cam was pretty great.
I haven't played magic in a bunch of months but like to check in with Kenji sometimes, and sometimes it makes me want to play again and sometimes it reminds me of all the times the game made me want to put my fist through a windowpane, which is honestly a good service!
Anyway, thanks and happy games!
Probably some of the most frustrating games I've ever seen, at times I almost had to look away :D Props to you for staying composed and not letting it affect your game.
That’s magic baby. That really is the only thing that can be said.
Good games, I've watched, and enjoyed, a number of your arena open videos in the past week or so. Keep rocking it!
On the one hand, it's easy to retrospectively say that removing the face-down was the smart move. On the other, holding the Makeshift Binding to push for the win was definitely correct.
A little loaded, but what's your overall opinion of the change to Play Boosters, specifically in Sealed?
It's nice to know that sometimes, even if it's just for a single decision, I can play better than the pros. I would have bound that unknown disguise card without hesitation in match 1. And I was saying that out loud to the screen as well. I was chanting "bind it, bind it, bind it..." Alas, would have been absolutely epic to have come back from a mull to four against a world champion.
I used to complain a lot the last couple of months regarding my luck and variance and whatever, but after watching your open journey, you just took a lot of pressure from my back. This was really entertaining, and frustrating. Good luck on the next one!
Numot: The frustration games.
Game 1 there was a couple of reasons to binding the face down. It would put you at 22 life and their attack with an on the job would be 21 damage. They also had black mana and could have the 1/1 that eats a card from hand.
Thanks for the content, Nummy
First of all, thanks for the entertaining content as always. I hate to add to the chorus, but I do think this result was appropriate in the sense that the better player won in match 1 due to playing better. I'm not saying I would have played better, I wouldn't have, but I think it's important to always be open to how we can improve. It was unfortunate you had to mull to 4, but then you drew extremely well, and simply weren't able to capitalize on it due to a slight misplay at the very end (not using the binding, which everyone else has already gone into detail on so I won't belabor the point).
Tilting for sure, but I think you'll improve more if you reconsider the play and perhaps discuss it with other pros rather than blame the mull to 4 or the luck of your opponent. I always appreciate when creators are willing to examine their plays more closely as opposed to being positive that they made the right play and were on the wrong end of variance. Sometimes that's true, of course, but I think the sense of injustice (I can't believe they had it!) leads to biases in thinking.
Nice surprise to see a Day 2 vidéo ! Wasn't really expected it lol
I've noticed a trend with people who win in arena opens. They get passed insane bomb mythics and rare non stop.
I am so happy, that you qualified for day two. Felt really.pitty for you dealing with OPs bomby decks or mana issues :) and now to this video.... Whoooo on earth shifts a pick 1 pack 1 Aurelia's vindicator? What did they pick??? We need answers!!!
i just saw lines of play that i hadnt even considered. nice
Heartbreaking game 1
What a rough Open. You did great regardless, variance is a cruel mistress.
Nummy I felt you pain on not casting the binding on the mulligan to 4 against JiRock(one of the best if not the best limited player on Arena)…I find your videos entertaining and glad I can watch you instead of entering myself
Keep up the good work 💙
All nummy content is good content and I’m stoked to see how this day 2 goes
I have to give props to [Simon] at the end though. When given nothing but a bunch of disguise creatures, you have to roll with it, and it ended up being a 6-8 face down nightmare :p
Hey nummy i really enjoy your content for the last probably five years thx for the effort. Ive been in your shoes quite a few times with the opens and can really get your frustration. I think on the other hand you also missed some lines probably because of it like in game2 m1 after the binding you seem to have a really good attack with on the job i think and ofc the redraw with the clue to find more pressure etc. Havent seen the whole vid yet but its hard ti see you so frustrated 😢 gl next time and keep up the good content❤
Jirock: Jean-Emmanuel Depraz, current World champions. Should have won that game Numot!
Huh?
@@dickdeoreothe first op
In game 1 I couldn't understand why Kenji wouldn't just bind the face-down card. The rest of the board was wide, but not deadly, and he had lethal on board through his fliers - why take the risk of not knowing what that card is and can do? Could have been a large flier or reach creature, too, so just go ahead and bind it already! That could have been an epic win on a mulligan to four. :-(
holding the bind was very bad play, and he was punished for it
hey kenji, thanks for posting the arena open content!
2:37 100% certain it had to be smugglers copter. It's the only card that takes priority over every other card in the pack due to any deck being able to use it. The only bomb more potent than vindicator would be Kaya since planeswalker removal was pretty absent in this set.
With all those person of interest passed and felonious rage I’m surprised you said there were no red open signals
Loss streaks still offer moments to learn, like how to pivot and try to play from behind. When to push advantage, press your luck, etc.
Why no Person of Interest pick 7? Insane for boros
Boros was open, was a bad decision imo
I wonder what they picked over Vindicator, must have been a Rare/Mythic from the LIST .. I opened a 3- Rare Pack with one just yesterday in a Draft
feel bad for you man, but still was very nice to see the whole series! :(
What card would someone possibly P1P1 over Aurelia's Vindicator?? And in pack 3 you got passed Yarus and Massacre Girl? What deck passes all 3 of those?
This has been the best. It's why I stopped playing arena: never win a die roll, opponent never bricks. An infuriating experience, but nice to see others have it too
Yarus is a bomb in my book, if they cant deal with it you just win
could not understand that either we were splashing red already anyway....
There were definitely games where drawing it would have broken things wide open for Kenji that he eventually lost. I agree that it was a mistake, though it's pretty close. Perhaps there's games he won that he would have lost without the extra early play.
Well you did verse the world champ in game one and almost won it. Great draft, great play Kenji.
binding the morph g1 doesn't seem wrong to me. there's plenty of common morphs that get annoying there too. could be a granite witness, the disenchant guy, riftmaker hellion etc.
All of those you could still target next turn with the binding. Not using binding immediately is playing around most of the possible outs.
EDIT:
I've kinda looked into this more thoroughly than I wanted. The face down cards he's supposed to kill immediately include:
- Aurelia's Vindicator
- Culvert Ambusher
- Unyielding Gatekeeper
- Vengeful Creeper
- Sanguine Savior
- Granite Witness
(not counting double black cards and red or blue cards) That's way more than I expected tbh.
The non-disguise creatures with flying or reach in those colors they could draw include:
- Absolving Lammasu
- Call a surprise Witness
- Griffnaut Tracker
- Wojek Investigator
- Tomik Wielder of Law
- Wispdrinker Vampire
- Teysa Opulent Oligarch
- Glint Weaver
- Vitu-Gazi Inspector
- Sumala Sentry
- Kraul Whipcracker
(not including bad cards like Doorkeeper Thrull)
So that's eleven potential topdecks to play around. It's kinda random to guess how many of them they're likely to have in their deck. Probably not more than 3 though and they have like 25ish cards left so that's like 12% they hit one of those. Whereas I'd give their disguise creature a 6 in 22 chance (=27%) of being relevant (22 is the number of playable disguise creatures in their colors). So yeah. I might have missed something and obviously some guesswork is included, but seems like not playing binding was a slight mistake.
I thought you were wrong but my analysis ended up supporting your point :(
@@chandir7752 they stop lethal next turn though and let oppo see another card and I think the chance of the facedown card doing that is higher than a random card they draw doing that.
@@chandir7752 Cheers for doing a thorough analysis! no harm in looking at the details :)
Couldn't you flip the Vindicator in response to the Pyrotechnic Performer trigger at 56:19 to exile the warden to prevent the damage? Since it wouldn't be able to deal the damage if it were gone.
just checked the card on gatherer and the ruling is that once the ability goes on the stack, it will see the last known power of the creature even if it leaves the battlefield before the triggered ability resolves
I don’t see why you wouldn’t binding the face down card… opp is topdecking, binding only useful vs a flyer, flyers are face down anyway in this format so you’ll never know which face down card is the one at the point you could use binding
however super unlucky aaah
Hard agree. Until then he was firmly in the lead and the only thing (apart from an insane topdeck) that could've wrecked him was the one face-down piece.
I'm kinda looking into this more thoroughly than I wanted. The face down cards he's supposed to kill immediately include:
- Aurelia's Vindicator
- Culvert Ambusher
- Unyielding Gatekeeper
- Vengeful Creeper
(not counting double black cards and red or blue cards) That's way more than I expected tbh.
The non-disguise creatures with flying or reach in those colors they could draw include:
- Absolving Lammasu
- Call a surprise Witness
- Griffnaut Tracker
- Wojek Investigator
- Tomik Wielder of Law
- Wispdrinker Vampire
- Teysa Opulent Oligarch
- Glint Weaver
- Vitu-Gazi Inspector
- Sumala Sentry
- Kraul Whipcracker
(Not including bad cards like Doorkeeper Thrull)
So that's eleven potential topdecks to play around. It's kinda random to guess how many of them they're likely to have in their deck. Probably not more than 3 though and they have like 25ish cards left so that's like 12% they hit one of those. Whereas I'd give their disguise creature a 4 in 18 chance (=22%) of being relevant (18 is the number of playable disguise creatures in their colors). So yeah. I might have missed something and obviously some guesswork is included, but seems like not playing binding was a slight mistake.
I was gonna call you guys hindsight Andys but my analysis ended up supporting your point :(
@@chandir7752Another super interesting aspect of this is that binding the facedown card ALSO happens to play around the opponent topdecking On the Job. If he binds it and opponent plays OTJ, he goes to 22 life and they would have exactly 21 power worth of creatures, which lets him no-block safely. With the facedown on the battlefield, if they attack all, he has to either accept dying to OTJ, or block with both creatures and risk losing at least one.
It's honestly such an interesting decision point, the mathologists could probably have a field day trying to figure out which choice has the higher win percentage.
@@patterson7958 True. Something similar happens if it's Greenbelt Radical - they'd attack for exactly 20. But we can safely block a dog though and they need to draw a land and pay it precombat so that's not relevant afterall.
But I kinda forgot that even granite witness we're supposed to target immediately. And even Sanguine Savior, as that also prolongs the game and gives them extra outs. So yeah the longer I look into it the more it seems like it's a mistake not to makeshift bind immediately.
Honestly, man, that mull to 4 was played so well except at the end. Definitely would respect the face down that that was op last card over a top deck 🤷♂️
Rootin for ya, bud
Dude so brutal that vindicator
Man, that first play was tough AF. Definitely there is something wrong with the shuffler sometimes, specially in Bo3. WoTC should remedy that.
Thank you for the content! That's Magic baby
Honestly wondering if that p1p2 pass was them seeing your name and giving it to you? Can't imagine what else they'd have taken instead for it to be a natural decision. Deserved either way!
Maybe they Opened a Raktos?
Very glad that you made it to the second day. GLHF
why would you not binding at the end of game 1?????????????
What card would someone take over Vindicator? Doppelgang maybe?
none if It were me
The vehicle
pack had 2 vindicators. Only explanation
@@JasonJia909 The 3/3 vehicle let you stay open. Is not so clear.
@@pepeluissaezbaez4855 nah I agree, I was kinda kidding about the second copy of vindicator (though it is a possibility)
Pack 1 Pick 2 - person to your right took the land??
I guessed the Irelia in game one and still feel like that was a complete steal... We have a saying, "It's not the same to call the devil, than to see it coming."
brutal
That first game though💀
Jesus, the start was probably the worst Mulligan I have ever seen.
I very much enjoyed your pain and suffering over the last week. Better luck next time.
Here for the anger management
Of course you bind it, its the only thing that could screw you for the win. Better to be proactive than reactive. Playing in fear of what could be instead of what is usually loses you the game.
There must have been 2 vindicators in the pack the guy was passing you. That or he was trolling idk how you would explain it differently
Cool deck~ I think you drafted really well~ I think most picks I would have done the same way
Thanks for the video!
I wouldve ended up boros. The performer and argos plus a few other picks i thought were sketchy. Nervous gardners are better in slower non white decks cuz you need the fixing and landa
First game sounds strange.. but that's why i love magic mtg. Cause.. you can never expect what's happening. Every game is different
the porn bots are out in force today it seems
I am so angry at the risk Kenji took by not binding the morph creature at first round.
There was no reason for him not to do it. The opponent was dead on board and would depend on a topdeck, whereas the morph creature could mean a way for him to comeback, as it did. And it doesn't necessarilly need to be a mythic to represent a problem. Granite Witness, for instance, could have bought the time needed for the opponent to comeback. The rare elephant, the helion as a suprise blocker, there was a lot of ways how it could have gone wrong.
33:13 -- You might be regretting taking second relive the past instead of second pick your poison...
Bruh I look down at my phone, I look back up at my tv and see you BOTTOMING 3 CARDS! My guy where do you want me to send the flowers? Jesus Christ.
I'm gonna be honest I would have used the binding on that second match
Well done
Those novice inspectors turn one every game without fail. Stay strong Kenji, this is very much unfair
that final match was especially frustrating cause opponent literally topdecked gas like 5 turns in a row, never missing a beat
pretty sure nummy had a way better deck but turns out when your opponent draws exclusively spells in the late game you lose
A lot of pain, but amazing content.
I feel bad for you in game one with the horrible one land/no land mulligans, but I think no matter what the face down creature was, I would have binded it. Sure you don't play around a mythic, but even if was a Granite Witness or Phantom, your plan to win with flying creatures goes out the window. Tough one.
The videos from this series need to come with a high sodium warning. Rough beats.
Who passes Aurelias Vindicator... Jesus. Also: As bad as Black/White is im Surprised you dont go Soul Enervation P1P4, Seems wrong.
27:57
I watch your videos since only 1 year and certainly improve a lot due to your content. Never seen you decide to not remove a threat he could have since his beginning hand and let them top decking instead :o
unfortunate for sure 😢 but you didnt apply your own advice.
Nummy stop saying what you don't want. Believe it or not your words have power, focus and say what you do want and only that. It will not work right away but after a short delay it should get better with your "luck" ;)
No no bro, it was your mistake. Arena gave you all you need after mull 4, but you were too greedy to keep you removal 😢
Wow I don't play best of three so I have never seen a no land hand
I think your losing streak affected your play in game one specifically, you played both careful and greedy banking too much on top decks rather then getting immediate value in the later turns.
Still good play as always, looking forward to the next one! Good luck, this deck was sick!
My heart hurts for you, That Mul 1st round was statistically insane with a zero land draw. Sry dude.
I would never (literally never) pass vindicator p1p1 LOL
only thing I can think of is it was one of those weird friggin packs with TWO vindicators
idk what even could have been in that pack, a smuggler's copter or something?
black and green wins if you get the bombs
that first match, and to say arena shuffler isn’t rigged
just watching this shit i got frustrated af. mull to 4, opp top decks like crazy, shit draws. everything that coudlve gone wrong, happened.
:( ... we will be here for you again next time ;)
God the pack 1 pick 2 vindicator setting hopes so high...
This format feels very high variance, which is a shame because there's also a lot of really interesting choices otherwise.
Brutal
12:18 MEOW
Feyd Rautha plays MTG
7th time is the charm I guess
your pain is our joy ....well it was painful to see ...i would prefered seeing you succeed after what you been trough the last episodes of drafts and sealed pools
That first game was tilting. Sorry Nummy, better luck next time.
i had the biggest hunch that the facedown card was vindicator xD
yeah, I understand why he didn't binding it, but really I just felt like it had to be done, the only way that game is lost is if that face down card is relevant or they double topdeck or something.
punted game 1 match 1
Bots in the comment section. on a Mtga Video. neat.