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The REAL Reason Wagner Deployed to BELARUS
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- Опубліковано 10 сер 2023
- What is the Wagner PMC planning from its new bases in BELARUS? This move is a direct threat to NATO members Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, but also on the Northern border of Ukraine. Are we going to see Battle of Kyiv 2.0? Meanwhile, Prigozhin spoke of a grand new adventure in Africa, as the tensions in the Sahel region are heating up.
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Thank you for your sharp eye everyone! The Wagner stickers and their "selfies" near Polish border posts were in fact photoshopped. My apologies for the mistake, I removed that part from the video 🙏🙏
you are the most subjective one who talks in history and politics, but not too much when it comes to france and muslims
can you do an article about the stronger navies in the Black Sea and how they compare and have performed of late?
Africans are more of a problem in France.. But, the Muslims don't belong in Europe either.
So you accidentally posted wagner stickers and selfies. B S. Russian propaganda pusher
it's time for Poland to send troops to Ukraine cover the border with Belarus and to partially encircle Belarus and also free up Ukrainian troops from having a protective order so they can focus on the south
Putin: "Let's relocate your forces to Belarus so HistoryLegends makes a video about this."
Prigozhin: "Yes let's do it, LOL."
100% facts
zamn
Based.
@Serg-wz9jsno wagner never threatened putin instead they kept supporting him they only wanted to take his 2 ministers
@Serg-wz9js The NATO countries, led by the powerful United States, are afraid to fight directly with Russia, all of you have shit in your pants...
I just love how the channel went from "Historian mads at game/movie" to analysis Rus/Ukr war and Wagner movement. It's like a big step of making good contents 😊
Yeah it's smart when you think about it. Alot channels have gotten popular because of the war
Level up
@@historylegends dear historylegends 3:10 clip of "wagnerian trooper is fake it's apolish guy photoshopped. sincerely
I wish he made content about historical topics beyond the Ukrainian War. I know it's currently the main hot topic, but some diversity like several years ago wouldn't hurt.
@@juliankraus1011 Be ready for a nice surprise
I'm a French Canadian and the federal governement has passed an information law prohibiting us from sharing information on the social networks facebook and instagram. This law includes several other clauses but that being said, you are one of my main sources of information on this conflict because of your precision of your information. Your work is important and colossal. Thank you and I support you from Quebec.
Are you living in China? why is there restriction on information
@@hippoace Canada could technically be viewed as mini China given the amount of Chinese there lmao
But here in the UK they want to ban internet encryption using the same excuses as always such as "it will help find gangs and terrorists" yadda yadda.
@@oogaboogaicu lol most western countries are copying China's governmental model of authoritarianism. It's very efficient and stable in the right hands
great most of this is fake propeganda BS from kreml so its great u cant do that, people are stupid enough to belive what they hear here
@@hippoaceit’s crazy. Canada passed some insane law requiring social media companies to pay to feature Canadian news so Facebook, google, etc simply removed all news in Canada and Trudeau is now malding. And his wife just left him, economy is horrible, support at an all time low, losing support in his party and fired most of his cabinet. He’ll be gone soon.
Now waiting for the “real reason” how Prigozhin’s private jet “fell down”
They're just there to teach the Belorussian army the way of the shovel
Putinksky the way of the shovel written by myamoto putinochiku
@schadiel-ghorayeb479 awe mate you been sound schooled by CNN 😂 do you support child sniffer brandon too?
Ukraine almost out of adult fighters...16 and 17 year old kids can't leave Ukraine...Hide them.
The Order of the Shovel, sure they might be cannon fodder with an 80% casualty rate but they work and that’s all that matters!
@@ZootyZoFoUkraine doesn't even have shovels 😂
This video is not aging well with the latest news of possible demise of Prigozhin when he plane was shot down by Russian Air Defence.
This guy's video never ages well. He's just grifting for the pro-Russia side and saying whatever they want to hear. If you go back to his video history, almost every prediction turned out to be wrong.
7:00 He wasn't born in Ukraine and emigrated to Russia. He was born in one USSR region and moved to another USSR region. And only after that the USSR was split into several countries
Even in Post-Soviet countries we use Ukraine/Russia/Belarus to refer to people born in USSR. USSR consisted of 15 republics after all.
Он не эмигрировал. Я в СССР жил в трёх республиках в одной стране.
They were still referred to as Ukrainians kinda like the United Kingdom has both English and Scottish. Don't be stupid.
Your guy just died in a plane "crash."
no you wrong , he just fell from a very very very high window
Out of all the UA-camrs dealing with events surrounding Russia/Ukraine/Africa/Wagner/NATO, I enjoy History Legends the most. Almost all of this guy's predictions come true. Almost every time he comes back on the screen he states "I told you so..."
Name one prediction
@@evansnash09 the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive
Bakhmut@@evansnash09
Except they don't? Guessing everything and some of them being correct isn't the same at being able to read a situation and determine a likely outcome. For example; Bakhmut. Did russia capture it? Yes. Did HistoryCopelord claim it had fallen several times before it actually had? Also yes.
That’s because he tells you exactly what you want to hear, not because it’s the truth Lol.
Your hero just got shot down by a mysterious flying object.
Who
So.... what happened to Prigozhin, Utkin, and the Wagner senior command?? 🤣🤣🤣
They've all been successfully denazified. 😎👍
They kicked your country army ass you should talk about them forever 😂 you guys are shameless
@@Bav_ar You mean they kicked Russia's ass so hard that they managed to fully take over Rostov Von Don (much larger and more populated city than Bakhmut) in several hours, then marched hundreds of kms to Moscow while shooting down 7 Russian aircraft on the way? On the contrary when Wagner was fighting Ukraine they only managed to take Bakhmut after spending 10 months, looks like Wagner gave Russia an EXTREME ass kicking while they suffered hard losing over 20k personnel (Prigozhin's own numbers) against Ukraine but barely lost any personnel during their march to Moscow! Truly Orcs, Orcling and Orc Lover are Shameless!🤣🤣🤣
Not even 2 weeks later Prigozhin kick the bucket 😂
Utkin probably the same
So we can say a big RIP WAGNER
I got to know many youths from Nepal are joining Wagner. In the past Nepal had been the UK's recruitment center for the Royal Gurkha Rifles, but recently the Nepal govt. stopped it. Due to high unemployment among youths, many people are now heading to Russia for very lucrative offers.
Nepali guys are very tough and loyal: they make for great soldiers
Этой новости год , ты наверное прочитал об этом в Латвийских новостях . И да гхурхи поступают в российскую армию , есть даже фотографии 😂
A lot of Americans joined Wagner when they were in Ukraine.I watched a video showing it.The Americans were saying Ukranians were corrupt.
wait really?
Nepal is full of commies so it wouldn't surprise me. I didn't know Gurkha recruitment and training got banned
Your 'real reason' just died together with Prigozhin on the plane.
Well... that ended as expected for Mr. Prigozhin. 💥
Feels like a build up for a larger war. I always wondered if the mutiny was staged to distract from troop movement, now I wonder even more. Now there is a large contingent of Russian troops training Belarusian soldiers and recruiting in Belarus
Yeah I always thought the same thing.
They count on the West going totally crazy and they plan accordingly. The dogs of war are straining on the leash. Madmen
There were already around supposedly 20-30k troops in Belarus at the end of last summer right after the Kharkiv counteroffensive. Also the west had many headlines about an impending russian invasion from the north during last winter. Even Zaluahny said that Russians were training around 200k troops since the withdrawal from Kyiv for a renewed offensive. I wonder where this is going right now. Russian plan may be to tank the UA offensive until fall and attack during the winter time once again from the north.
@@VaxWax-z5yremove
Wagner is going to take Kiev and that’s why they are in Belarus. The VDV & Spetznaz failed to take it but Wagner is much better trained & experienced and are the best urban warriors in the world bar none. They are like an army of Navy Seals, each with their own special skill-set learned in the toughest place on earth - a Russian prison!
I'm Polish and i love Your channel. You hit a nail in the head. Keep up a good job You do. Sober minded Poles needs Yours analysis 👍. Brilliant channel...and hat down to somebody that young which has so much knowledge about reality on situation...full support to channel👍
Your government is your first enemy. Hope polish ppl realize that sooner than later.
@user-yp7xq1zw7t he's 100% pro Russian not impartial at all
@@jansobieski3127just because he laughs at stupid propaganda doesn't mean't he's pro russian
@@jansobieski3127 Dude, just because one doesn't accept Ukraine narrative it doesn't mean one is pro-Russia. Is that so hard to understand?
@@Losowyhe only trolls at western propaganda and NAFO bots. Its easy to ser how he's far from objective
Wagner troops were moved to Belarus because Russian law doesn't allow private militia troops to be stationed on Russian territory. It's not a big mystery, they were fine in Ukraine, they are fine in Africa, they are fine in Belarus, but not in Russia.
Now not welcome in Belarus because Luka thought Putin was paying for them…😂
Bakhmut is in Donetsk oblast, which was annexed. So they were operating on Russian soil, according to Russian law.
@@jamesthomaspaulJTPBelarus with Russland.
@@TheFrankvHoof Yep. Bakhmut, the gateway for UA to the Donbas where over $13 TRILLION in lithium deposits lay. If you want to know why all this started primarily in the 1st place...
@@TheFrankvHoof But only since last year, thats when the legal issues started. Donbass wasnt foreign soil anymore and there was a problem now.
As a former us marine, It would be hilarious to see battle hardened Wagner troops go up against nato beaurucrat soldiers.....🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Happy when I see guys like you realize this.
Thanks for your service, brother. I only wish you were given the country we all deserve.
Until the nukes start poppin... 😢
Like that time battle hardened Wagner soldiers fought green berets in Syria??
@@ricardo3760I've seen many talk about berets vs wagner in Syria. Feels sick
Exactly why we should mind our own business. Army already lacks manpower and quality ever since the GWOT calmed down. People join just to get benefits or avoid being homeless these days.
I love watching your videos after things happen. really shows how much you know 😂
this aged well for wagner😂😂😂
Belarus: morning my friend you have a new neighbor Poland: who ? Wagner: what up. Poland: 💀
Wagner could barely conquer 1 city in Ukraine after 11 months trying along with prisoners, LPR, DPR, VDV and regular russian army against an army that has no air force but somehow they are a threat for the guys who trained ukranian soldiers... this is just cringe... and high level of fanboyism
Димитриада ;) ? Zapraszamy na wycieczkę ;)!
sure bor stop coping it doesn't work like that
@@Samuel-cg6owWagner is a PMC not a military and since Ukraine just kept sending forces they bombed everything.
@@Samuel-cg6owwe will see. Same as Russia running out of absolutely everything well over a year ago. All Russian army was destroyed, people started to even joke about shovels. Then how many times putin was about to die, 5? 10? Then didint putin poisoned khadyrov and lukashenko? Then from the other side, haven’t Ukraine attacked Poland, and blamed Russia? Trying to cause direct nato Russia war. I don’t know how can you trust anything you see. I watch news from about 30 different channels,and I don’t trust everything I see, doesn’t matter if it’s Russia or Ukraine. In my eyes there is no good guys, and specially nato.
Wagner PMC "A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" - W. Churchill
10 head
No they are just the best goddamned military unit in the world is all, no other unit in the world has their training, weapons & experience, they are an army of Chad Thundercock’s Lol!
@@ZootyZoFoone AC130 gunship and 300 dead Wagnerian soldiers say otherwise. 😂
better said ny Joe Pesci as that creepy JFK conspirator
@@richardcampbell8685Cope Westoid.
No one respects you jokers anymore.
This aged poorly lol
very accurate update from you 😂
Looking at all this through a military lens Wagner's move puts enormous pressure on NATO's plans.
Not really. 20k Men are not much if you think about how much Poland has and how much Nato has in Poland.
A Nato invasion is a bigger treat than could be countered with a few Wagners and some Russian Nukes stationed in Bellaruss
@@retributionangel5078Not enough to pose a huge threat, but enough that they can’t be ignored.
@@retributionangel5078 20k wagner musicians scare the fuck out of nato.. the very public reaction to wagner being in belarus was proof..
Currently, 20k swag we troops = 40k Polish troops based on Modern war experience
@slikkyhelp what about the Americans in Poland and Lithuania that have way more experience?
Have in mind that Poland is in the pre-elction period. Government use the threat from Waagner PMC to bring back situation from the beggining of Ukrainian war. In that moment they reached highest support in polls. It can happen again because the biggest opposition party is widely accused of reducing military expenditures.
Reducing military spending now would indeed be unacceptable. Without the extra strain it can become much harder to make sure that the european economy runs itself into the mud deeply and thoroughly enough to make europeans truely pliable and agreeable to any demands in time for when it will finally be required.
Are you telling us that Russia is meddling in western elections again?
Or nato wants us to be scared and go to war against Russia
no one cares about wagner its 8..000..... only supporters still think they can do anything other than to commit warcrimes in africa
How are they afraid of a 90% dead barefoot convict army? Poland not stronk?
This aged well lol
The picture of the "Wagner" soldier at the Polish border is photoshopped btw, it's some Polish guy who wore a Russian patch or smth similar, not a Wagner one tho. The original pic is out there
there was also wagner stickers at polish random spots. Who knows
Prigo calling Putin: "Have you seen the HistoryLegends video from last year about us going to Byelorussia?"
V.V.: "Yes, GRU sent me the youtube link. They have entire unit tracking the guy. What of it?"
Prigo:"Interesting idea..."
V.V.:"Yes, let's do it but you make shure that Americans pay for the fuel"
Next day:
Prigo to CIA:"Now i'm very unhappy with our leadership. How much would you pay for me to deal with the problem?"
After some hagling CIA agrees on 6,3billion
prigo to Putin:"I managed to squeeze 6,3 billion US out of them"
V.V.:"Make shure that they pay before you start to move"
Хахаха добар си брате
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
hahaha plausible
Essa piada foi engraçada...de tão plausívelmente russa
@@bergarcia2742 poderia ser
I think they're there to train Belarus up, then who knows maybe in concert with another Russian offensive or breakthrough they're to march into Ukraine again and towards Kiev at a critical moment. That or they're going to Africa again.
Access to Kiev from Belarus are extremely problematic as the initial phase of the invasion showed (few roads, bridges, big water areas). Hundreds of thousands of soldiers would probably be needed for real push. While neither side can realistically advance even a few kilometers per day anywhere on the defended front line.
Good call. There is actually a video on youtube that claims the exact same possibilities. Search for "The REAL Reason Wagner Deployed to BELARUS".
@@RWM_ In 2022 Russians moved to Kiev during late february - early march, it is a time of "rasputitsa" in the region. So they couldn't use many roads.
@@RWM_ That is why likely such a push would happen only if Ukraine's front collapses in the east, or Russia has made a huge breakthrough and is advancing unopposed. Or at a critical moment during a major battle, Wagner and some supporting forces could make an advance into Ukraine maybe threaten Kyiv, forcing the Ukrainians to then decide if they pull back vital troops or not from the major battle. Which could then cost them the battle.
Wagner alone won't win Russia much gains, but if used as a precision tool, at the a vital moment to shift the balance and drain Ukraine resources elsewhere, they could be devastating in the long run.
Guess the whole point is shown over all in the video. A lot of options and even more questions, what Wagner will do, when it will do and what will happen. Short. A lot of chaos and a lot of troops and material which has to be involved, to plug any possible hole and protect every possible point of entry for Wagner. Just by existing in the point where they are, they keep NATO busy.
Do you ever get tired of being wrong all the time?
Of course he doesn't couse he make money on it. Sadly his dumb pro russian biased audience also never get tired
Option 3: Get rekt
Bro, we need a vid of the situation on the front asap, I don’t listen to main stream anymore only your Chanel 😂
🫡
Indeed 🎉
Indeed 🎉
Amazing analysis Alex, top notch. What's even more puzzling is the fact that Russia already had thousands of troops sent to Belarus earlier and with air capabilities. These troops could work on the rear with artillery, UAVs and air support..
To make matters worse there are Nukes stationed in Belarus. What ifvthe worse gets to the worse and then Russia decides to use Belarus as a proxy with nuclear capabilities.
It's scary regardless of the angle we try to look at this. The mainstream is leading us the wrong way. From war chess tactics to geopolitics and economic tactics. A war with Russia would be deadly for the west.
Russia has been pushed to a point where they've become overwhelmingly deadly in battle.. There's no surprise mainstream PR has been silenced lately.
Crazy world.
Yes the Russians are overwhelmingly dead in battle :P
So many cowering to the Russian paper bear...
@@GeneralBlackNorway it'll be funny when those "dead Russians" come knocking on your door... with their shovels!
lol
@@GeneralBlackNorwayUkrainian soldiers would beg to differ.
I’ll assume you’re 15 the way you’re speaking.
@@GeneralBlackNorway i assume u already aware that the russian now have experience facing enemy with modern NATO supplied equipment and training right? And thats different from going war with guys with cold war AK and barely AA system.
You have the best videos covering this situation. Thanks. Be waiting for the next.
Love your analysis! Very detailed and enlightening.
Connecting Big P's speech about Africa to the Niger coup is wild
love your reporting and you have a sense of humor too!!
There goes your wagner high command LMAO
The Suvlaki/Suvalki line line had me cracked up. Love you innuendos. Keep up the good work.
As always, Alex brings up a Potpourri of detailed research on background and facts corelated with the current topic sprinkled with humour and well thought of analysis. Related video footages add to the veracity of the narration and visual understanding. Voice modulation adds to the interest and drama! No wonder he takes time to post his videos. Surely, they are worth the wait and looking forward. Keep us enlightened Alex. Bravo!
are you rehearsing for the movie trailer?😅
Pretty unrealistic explanations. Wagner has maybe, one division of light infantry - they can't do much outside of raiding across the border. They are no longer under the Russian banner so any strikes they launch from Belarus would be considered attacks by Belarus which could draw in other countries. They are training the Belarussians and going to Africa. That's it.
Very unrealistic
Да ладно тебе, слишком очевидную дезу кидаешь. Такое не прокатывает. Или уже прокатывает? Я постепенно перестаю сомневаться в глупости западной аудитории...🤦♂️
If that makes you sleep better, then OK, I guess that's exactly what Wagner wants.
lol ok, you have a "Hermann Göring" strategical wit and reality going on about you
😂 this dude
I consider the Wagner presence in Belarus as a detterent for a Polish incursion into Western Ukraine, the moment the war goes completely South for Ukraine.
I'm surprised you didn't explore that option, in my opinion it is the exact reason they are there, the moment the Polish go in, they go in, and so the message to the Polish Government is clear:Stay put.
Poland no longer claims West Ukraine, They have no reason nor any interests to reclaim West Ukraine. That wouldn't make any sense whatsoever especially with the fact that Poland sent tons of weapons to Ukraine, that would be very contradictory.
@@polishoperator5687 What?
Did you just say they would have no interest in reclaiming Western Ukraine?
I guess that's one opinion, also it doesn't matter what they've sent to Ukraine f the Ukrainian army gets overwhelmed presenting the Russians with the opportunity of capturing Ukrainian ground at their will.
A Polish intervention in Western Ukraine would be seen as preventing a complete Russian victory.
Polish govmnt has no interest in western UA b/c it would cost billions and billions to integrate it, plus there is almost zero Poles there, plus PL is not in a business of invading its neigbbours nowadays. Reclaimimg western UA is just a wet dream of far far right niche in my country, Poland.
@@Warszawski_Modernizm EU would pay for it tho, not Poland themselves
@@Warszawski_Modernizm Even if Poland doesn't care they do care about the Russians not winning.
And faced with the prospect of either the Russians occupying Western Ukraine or themselves, which would they choose.
Wagner must be the best urban fighting soldiers in the world. Similar to the Siberians that fought from Stalingrad to Berlin
And history legends was completely wrong... yet again...
Seriously. He should have been right about at least one thing by pure accident...
Capturing a large but relatively undefended city for a short while, even if they can't (and don't even intend to) hold it for long, has been an effective strategy across history. One of the best examples is the 1757 raid on Berlin.
Yep, it's work big time especially if your enemy started proganda that your army is not strong and capable.
Prime example is the capture of Yogyakarta by Indonesian Army, this cripled the position of Dutch in international eyes.
Another example is tet offensive.
Enjoying the seriously important content conveyed with mirth and sarcasm, this is such a brilliant delivery to remove the emotion and focus on the issues at hand. We need many more like yourself to deliver the message simply and very effectively. Cheers mate from Aotearoa New Zealand.
Agreed.
Kia ora, Chur.
@@brutallyremastered4255aye
👍
i have had a lifelong interest in naval warfare and would love an article about the regional naval powers in the Black Sea. this might include what ships are available and how each navy is performing in comparison to one another
A good idea when the Wagners are on the move and are ready for action. The move into Belarus should make the NATO schweinhund think twice before attempting any of their nonsense. The Wagners are doing an excellent job in Sudan, protecting the China National pipeline. Love to see how they are going to handle the NATO war pig in Niger.
"Love to see how they are going to handle the NATO war pig in Niger."
Unfortunately the US has no fears about bombing Niger into submission. Wager\Niger is going to need some serious Air defense. Probably going to run into issues getting supplies since Niger & Chad are land locked.
The last time America and Wagner fought, the Wagner soldiers who were left got medals for surviving, we are happy to help Russians earn these medals.
Schwienhund....luv it 😂
@@JallyJam to bomb a squad in an open field and be proud of it?
And I heard Americans were awarded medals for the murder of civilians@@JallyJam
Wagner forces of the current 15k mercenaries can swell up to 80k strong even more while in Belarus. The equipments Wagner forces returned to Russia are for repairs and refurbishment. After repairs, Russia will give it to Belarus to strengthen defense ties that will eventually fall into Wagner forces stationed near the borders. Wagner forces can also use the African crisis to train new recruits together with their African counterparts, far from western eyes. Wagner will wait until they regain their strength of about 50k strong in order to reinforce their bases.
The so called Wagner Mutiny was most likely to rat out anti putin players in Russia .
🤣😂 Prigozhin is such a good actor.
It is the most likely what happened. But I still believe pirigozin was killed there and then. Why there is no clear videos of him for almost 2months. And few speeches I heard, I don’t know, I listened to him daily and I have a good hearing, his voice was not the same. I might be wrong, but I still think he’s gone.
Well that was part of it but they main play was to move troops into Belarus to put pressure on US logistics. End of them day what this really comes down to is economics. And yes Russia is winning, otherwise the USA wouldn't use our spooks to light Russia on fire.
@@JJ-3033breh
That's cope
The Wagner Group brings unfamiliar words, nomenclature and expressions derived from recent combat experience. This knowledge won't appear in any field manual. its too recent. Having brilliant, up to date generals doesn't help if the sergeant reading an order needs an explanation. Armies, like sports teams, have play books. Most of the chapters cover the basics. The later chapters touch on fancier operations. The experts make this stuff look easy, it isn't. Like a circus act, the fancy stuff takes lots of practice.
the only circus is the nazi-infested ukrainian army, government, and police, NATO leadership, and US government.
Lukashenko booked Barça😎
It took wagner 10 months to capture one town in Ukraine and they lost 10000s of men. If you honestly think that wagner would be anything more than a joke to a real NATO army with the latest weapons and tactics you are obviously drunk. It would be a massacre.
Good comment.
"The Democratic Republic of Congo is considered the world's richest country in terms of wealth in natural resources. Most of the raw mineral deposits remain untapped and are worth an estimated $24 trillion. These deposits include the world's largest coltan reserves and considerable amounts of cobalt."
This shows how RICH African people are, why they are kept so poor. Congo has 24 TRILLION in rare Earth elements. Why are the people so poor?
Because without Western/Chinese corporations, African countries have no way of efficiently exploiting these raw materials (no capital, no equipment, no knowledge, no skilled workers,…)
There’s also a theory in economics called “The Resource Curse” which theorizes that an abundance of raw resources is correlated with less economic growth, less democracy and worse development
The Wagner deployed in belarus also slows down the rate of deployment of amunition to ukraine because they may also want to create a backup stock for poland if anything happens
If anything happens?
What could happen if Poland faced Belarus?
Mate sorry but Poland has access to fighter jets. The only reason Ukraine uses artillery is because they can’t use fighter aircraft due to Russia shooting down 60% of their air force. Poland doesn’t have that problem and neither does NATO. Since Vietnam they have pivoted to air dominance and anti-aircraft suppression. And you have to know it won’t just be Poland in this conflict. It’s all of NATO if Poland is invaded, and know the US still has 8400 of their Abrams and their 4000 fighter jets along with Europe’s 1200.
@Custodes_Veritatus, as you already tired, Westerners, to represent the aggressor and invader from Russia. Why would Russia invade Poland? To fight NATO? Does she need it? that's what your under-politicians, dancing to the tune of the globalists, have been teasing Russia in recent years and provoking a conflict, that's for sure. Well, if an open conflict between Russia and NATO is destined to happen, then your 8000 Abrams will not have time to sail to Europe. Russia will not peel onions when its existence is at stake.
@@Custodes_Veritatus mate sorry, but the Wagnerites do not need Russian air defense equipment or aviation, they have enough captured anti-aircraft systems, as well as those Western systems that they bought from the Ukrainians (Wagner is a private organization and mutually beneficial business is their strong side) to destroy _everything_ that the Poles can put up or NATO even in their own skies. And they can easily be presented as 'a little local Polish opposition' in the same way as the Ukrainians did in Belgorod. This game of overcoming border outposts under the cover of artillery fire is worth playing together.
@@DartXL yo, xxl - u getting delusional - poaland is not a banana republic like ruskiya, no mirracles like little local opposition, no ruskiye mir.
As a musician you are used to go on tour, now and then.
You do realize that picture of the "Wagner" soldier at the border with Poland is actually just a Polish soldier photoshopped with the Wagner patch. I don't understand how we are this far along and this is still being propagated...
Your videos are the only ones I have to watch unblinked and many times unwound. Hats off!
Nice Video, hey can you make a Video about the Situation in Kupyansk?
The age of empire soundbites are always hilarious
I think the main reason they are in Belarus is a far more boring legal reason. Having a Russian PMC was already bending the Russian constitution a bit and they certainly couldn't operate on Russian soil, that caused a bit of a pickle after the referendums; technically the Wagner operations in (then) Bakhmut were illegal. The original solution to this was going to be to disband Wagner and have them all sign Russian military contracts but we all saw how that turned out. The solution we are probably seeing is that Wagner will become a Belarussian PMC where I presume there are less legal restrictions. If Wagner becomes a Belarussian PMC they will be able to operate wherever they are required, including the newest parts of Russia and any others that may be added in the future.
Interesting idea. But I can say with confidence that Belarus has very strict laws for mercenarism. Belarusians who fought as volunteers in the DPR and LPR since 2014 are being prosecuted under criminal articles in their homeland. Greetings from Russia
My friend, your numbers are off. Belarus, Sahel, Mexico. Wagner is everywhere.
CARD: Zelensky. Class: Actor. (Class trait: Rhetoric replaces Strategy skill.) Ability: Each turn can use 1 Media Offensive instead of 1 Military Offensive. Cost per use: 1 Army Division.
now that is funny
Accurate
And don't forget 100 photo sessions in the same shirt per week ( to boost the moral of soldiers ig)
Одлична анализа стања на терену. Ја лично мислим да се ради о проширењу фронта на северу Украјине ,,што би значило слабљење украјинских нато трупа.
Jebes NATO
Белорусская база
Српски је кул језик, сада дубоко зарони.
И ја мислим исто. Нису луди да крену на НАТО, јер НАТО само то и чека
Slazem se kolega.
I'm not convinced that Wagner is as independent of the Russian MOD as you might suppose and although they clearly do not take orders directly from Moscow, the central command of Wagner are all Spetznaz/GRU officers so they not only know the Russian military system inside out, they are still an active component of it, no matter how anyone wants to spin it. It's almost like it is necessary for being able to carry out the kinds of actions that they perform that such an organisation needs to be fully independent of the regular command structure.
Plausible deniability is only one part of it. I think the entirely separate command and logistics of PMCs is required because they need the freedom of movement and certainty of supply to be able to function effectively and not become mired in the bureaucracy that retards regular forces during active operations, something we all know very well thanks to the very public limitations that US forces were subject to in Afghanistan and Iraq.
It is a fact, even in the West, that PMCs can only exist with the full support of the government otherwise they would represent a threat to national security, being a fully-equipped private army that can literally deploy anywhere at anytime and would only be able to be dealt with by the national military forces if they just decided to take over. And remember that Blackwater, now Greystone International, very nearly did take over parts of the US when they were deployed internally to restore order in the wake of natural disasters such as the Californian Wildfires and most notably Hurricane Katrina.
So, there isn't a single place in the world that uses PMCs that isn't vulnerable to such organisations deciding to go rogue. France is perhaps the only country that would be resistant to such an insurrection as the Foreign Legion are forbidden from deploying within French territory and are headquartered primarily in the parts of former French West Africa that they still have influence over, which until recently included Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali and Mauritania.
Russia's involvement in Africa goes as far back as all the other former European colonial powers. However, because of the Soviet collapse, Russia lost the ability to project its influence so far abroad. But now, thanks to China's relations with Africa souring, Russia has become the new friend of last resort that many non-Western aligned governments and rebel groups have decided to rally to for protection and support, particularly as they expect retaliation from the West, especially their former colonial "masters".
It also gives Wagner an active training ground for their greener recruits in an environment that is removed from media scrutiny and bias where they will be tested against the intelligence and logistics of the West without being at risk of airstrikes and remote attacks via drones. Thus, when they are redeployed to Europe, Russia will have a very large and formidable combat-hardened force that NATO will struggle to contend with in the event of a future Russo-NATO conflict.
Wagner is just the sort of organisation that Moscow can rely upon to strengthen its relations with its old friends and new partners alike as they are proven, they are reliable and they never quit, no matter the beating they might take.
I think the real reason that Wagner deployed to Belarus is purely mind games and it is intended to achieve several outcomes:
- First, we all know Belarus is basically Russia as it has been forever and anything that Minsk announces was first decided in Moscow anyway so by sending Wagner to their vassal, I mean, ally, Russia are defending themselves against any possible NATO or Western intelligence interventions in their border region such as overthrowing the Lukashenko government or sponsoring partisan activities inside Russia like the Belgorod operation.
I think it also plays into a consideration or concern that the Russian MOD might have regarding a widening of the conflict by Polish, Lithuanian and Ukrainian forces simultaneously launching operations against Belarus to tie up Wagner and draw away resources that Russian needs to defend its holdings in Ukraine. Because these are offensive actions, Article 5 wouldn't be invoked so any Russian or Belorussian response to said attacks would not result in NATO intervention. However, this force would be difficult for Russia to combat at short notice given that the force distributions wouldn't be balanced, with completely fresh well-supplied troops on the Polish and Lithuanian sides and battle-hardened and tested troops coming from Ukraine essentially trapping a lightly-equipped Wagner and the trained part of Belarus' forces between them like a hammer and anvil;
- Second, Moscow had to respond to Wagner publicly in a way that didn't result in having to destroy their most effective fighting force but still be seen to be punishing them for their "unlawful" actions. So, "exiling" the group from Russia achieves this without looking weak or like they had been caught off guard and Belarus is close enough still to Russia proper that if Wagner's services are required again in the conflict, they are at least at hand. I think the casualties that Wagner inflicted on the Russian air force were simply revenge for the airstrike against them, hence why that didn't result in any reprisals against the Wagner leadership or personnel;
- Third, following on from above, there is obviously a huge element of psychological warfare about anything concerning Wagner both from within the organisation itself or from the Kremlin. What I mean by this is that as the Wagner leadership are all Spetnaz/GRU officers and most if not all the relevant politicians in Moscow are ex-intelligence officers, psyops are like second nature to all these people so whenever they say anything about anything, you really need to pay attention to the context so you don't get taken in and misdirected.
Although it has been publicly stated that there was no coordination between Wagner and the Russian MOD regarding the "rebellion", I think it's more likely that this entire episode was one giant false flag operation designed to test the Russian people's resolve in the face of a potential invasion, to test the response time of Russian forces to such an incursion (hence the lack of forewarning) and to "reset" the public discourse regarding Russia's "special military operations" in Ukraine, which had come under intense scrutiny and criticism from political opponents of the Kremlin within Russia and was starting to gain traction ahead of the coming elections;
- Fourth, it exhausts the restriction regarding convicted criminals being able to move freely within Russia, which they by law are not allowed to without legislative permission. Since it would have been a hugely expensive and onerous process for the Duma to create and pass new legislation allowing Wagner PMC to freely move within Russia, they simply expedited it by exiling them instead;
- Fifth, having deployed nuclear assets to Belarus, it would have been incredibly reckless and potentially dangerous to have such equipment beyond the direct control of Moscow. Placing their best people inside the country to watch over these assets is a very sensible decision and it avoids a host of hazards, not least of all being that given how active the CIA and other Western intelligence have been in attempting to foment discord and sponsor partisans against Russian interests, a nuclear device would be a prime target for sabotage, not so much to set it off but rather to cripple it and to steal information regarding it, thereby potentially undermining Russia's deterrent capability;
- Sixth, Wagner's presence on their border makes NATO sweat and specifically gives both Warsaw and Vilnius pause when considering their position vis a vis Ukraine. Soldiers on active duty are 3-4 times more expensive to maintain than those on reserve on average so by forcing Poland and Lithuania to deploy large numbers of soldiers to their borders with Belarus, it is forcing them into expenditures that they would otherwise not be required to that then potentially draws nearer the point at which domestic support for Ukraine will collapse as it becomes economically unfeasible to maintain in light of these "unnecessary" costs, especially as the EU heads towards recession;
- Seventh, it equally may cause Kiev to falter or panic by Wagner basically being in striking range of the capital and therefore draw Ukrainian forces away from their offensives in the south and the east. At least, I'm in agreement with you that this is part of the thinking behind the deployment and the construction of bases along the Belarus-Ukraine border. Ukrainian intelligence has proven rather difficult to penetrate in terms of the reasoning behind their actions but since they are not given to panic or irrational decisions, this is probably unlikely to do much more than further entrench the Ukrainian people into their siege mentality from which it will become ever more difficult to draw them into negotiations in the future.
Having said all of this, I cannot see Wagner being used to actually attack Kiev nor NATO assets in Western Ukraine and equally I think it highly unlikely that they will launch any sort of incursion into the Suwalki Gap, both of which would be definite red lines for NATO attacks on Russia, something that the Kremlin has thus far taken great pains to avoid as much as possible despite all the provocations. The organisation is too smart to do something so counter productive and suicidal and even though people want to act like Moscow has gone mad, they are definitely too smart to bring on their own annihilation by such foolhardy ventures. I mean, it'd be easy for the war if they did because then Russia would be destroyed so no more war. But it just isn't going to happen.
PRIVATE ARMIES are a plague on Governments or anyone who is tempted to hire them. They are mercenaries. Its a business. The client is the one who pays the best and risks the least. Putin is losing. Prigozhin has made his money.
Africa has often lured white men into the darkness in search of treasure.
Check out: COLTAN MINNG , CONFLICT MINERALS & AFRICAN SLAVES
Beware beware the bight of Benin , 1 comes out for 20 that go in.
Bravo 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾 excellent analysis I see you pay attention to every detail
Top notch coverage and insight on these affairs
As usual, great analysis. Smarter than most grownups these days. Keep it up!
Hey man, just a shout out from the sea here, I've got to tell you that was one well put together, informative, interesting, and super entertaining video.
Really looking at all the angles, I like it,
It looks like the news are already old. The latest rumor is that the PMC is leaving Belarus because Lukashenko can't afford them 😂
The Germany joke had me rolling😂
The chances to atack Poland are ZERO!!! and the chances to win just a meter (a square) terrain in Poland are also ZERO!!!
Greetings from Romania.
Chances of trolling everyone west of UKR is 110% tho... Worth it 🤷
Chances of Poland sending troops to Ukraine are ZERO.
This is Russian trolling in progresss.. Make the media think that you will attack Poland but instead attack Ukraine causing Ukraine to panic….😅
Wagner mostly trolled Russian goverment with their mutiny, and shooting down russian helis KEK@@LupusInFabula80
4:17 LOL I can't believe that guy on the left has NWA hat 😂😂😂💀
the real reason is that intelligence learned about Poland’s attack on Belarus! but Wagner prevented this!
For us in Russia, the Wagner rebellion was a big mystery. "What the hell was that!?!" Many Russians supported this rebellion. I'll explain why. The Russian army is not tasked with winning this conflict. They occupied part of the territory of Ukraine and then the Russian government hopes to conclude some kind of peace treaty with Ukraine. Russian troops were at the gates of Kyiv, then there were negotiations in Istanbul and the Russians left the Kyiv region, Chernihiv region, and other regions. Then again there were negotiations on the ammonia pipeline in the fall of 2022. And the Russians again leave the Kharkov region. Then again negotiations on the "grain deal" and the Russians again left Kherson and the territories on the right bank of the Dnieper River. The people of Russia do not understand what it is? Is it a war or an endless attempt to negotiate constantly making concessions? Do not understand why the bridges on the territory of Ukraine are not destroyed? Why are other elements of the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine not being destroyed? They don't understand why they release captured Nazis from the Azov regiment? They do not understand why only 300,000 were mobilized. If the Russians want to win this war, they should have mobilized no less than the Ukrainians mobilized. Conclusion: this is not a war, but a big top circus. Only a bloody circus. Sorry for my English. Greetings from Russia!
I have a theory about all leaders involved in this war are making big money meanwhile zelensky is just a sacrifice. Zelensky is an icon here in west such thumberg and all “ good “ icon made up by west. They built a character like in a story. But what I see is that Putin and his counterpart are all working togheter to make money over Ukraine. Example? Ukraine attempt to kill Putin, Biden stop them. Poland people start to be worry to get involved into this conflict, Putin moves troops close to Poland so the gov can keep prosegue with this Russian phobic thing.
I'm an Indian in India. How much would I get paid a month if I joined Wagner to fight for Russia?
$2,400 as a monthly salary. There are also bonuses from $1,500 to $7,000.
Зависит от страны пребывания , если собираетесь на Украину, то вам не в Вагнер . И ещё индиец из Индии скоро зима , не забывай что у нас холодно 😊 .
im in turkish military and thats way more than what im paid lol@@HellGrouse
@@noir1923so join them
Don’t kill yourself
It’s not Bollywood
Very good report as always!
Amazing content man. Keep up the good work!
LOVE YOUR CHANNEL !! SUPREME CONTENT !!! SUPER INFORMATIVE !! KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK 👍 👍 👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
Slava HistoryLegends
Russia will deal with Poland asymmetrically. I.e. they will not do any classical invasion. Migrant crisis, maybe. But I suspect something more sinister, something new.
I also think Wagner in Belarus is much smaller as they are not paid to just sit around. The need to be used. So maybe attack from the north in the winter with heavy Belorus support.
Belakraine will look nice with new colors. Too bad for the Russians though...
Crazy New Theory: Wagners come to Belarus, take newly delivered nuclear weapons, pass as migrants to European capitals and detonate nuclear weapons there. And then Russia, Belarus and Wagner invade Europe and take everything up to Gibraltar 👍
@@user-wl9hv7ux1t not even Call of Duty would craete a stupid scenario like this
@russianoccupant7383 Belgorod shows that Russia did not place defenses everywhere. So Belarus would be an easy target that Russia wouldn't be prepared to defend. So if Belarus attacks Ukraine it's bye bye Belarus.
@@user-wl9hv7ux1t Nuclear weapons aren't so tiny you can smuggle them up your arse...
The one with Wagnerian selfie in the poland border was originally a Polish border guard replaced with wagnerian.
Your profile pic is hard but what are you doing here? I thought thorfinn was against violence and anywhere near it😂
On point, Mr Perestroyka
Wagner is going to be like a guest of Belarus that will end up never leaving.
Kinda like NATO in Western Europe 😂
nonsense they're always going to be able to leave
@@parlyramyarwhy would you want NATO to leave?
@@andrewwhitehead2353 cause they are an occupying force keeping Europe as vassal states under the united states.
Good ! Why should they? While nato/America occupies Europe
The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry is concerned that the Wagnerians are massively crossing the border of Poland under the guise of refugees. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Moravecki said that the Wagnerians might try to cross the border disguised as refugees. A new wave of panic swept Poland. The locals are sure that illegal immigrants, who are actually fighters of the "Wagner", are already entering the country from Belarus. Evgeny Prigozhin: Today we are determined by the following tasks, the contours of which are increasingly drawn. Speaking about the tasks of the "Wagner", Prigozhin explained that "these are of course tasks that will be carried out in the name of the greatness of Russia". Speaking about the personnel work of the "Wagner" group, he noted that "most of our fighters are on vacation, as long as before there was a long period of very stressful work, recruitment to PMCs is temporarily suspended". Wagner’s going on holiday to Poland... )))
Wave of panic? Bro.. The topic is so popular in our country but it is made just for the "game of politics". Elections in 🇵🇱 is coming. So the government wants to show us how they care and protect a country.
How crazy stupid brainwashed irresponsible naive and so on must be a person to think that wagner could somehow be a real threat for a country? lol
As a Polish citizen i can only say to the wagners: you're welcome
Do a favor to the world 🙏
Większych głupot dawno nie czytałem.
Russia has no intrest in invading Poland. They only want to prevent Poland from invading western Ukraine and adding additional problems. They aren't that stupid that they would invade Poland.
Today (11.08.2023) some people living in Kraków found Wagner PMC stickers that said "we are here", "join us" with QR code that sends you (obviously) to Wagner PMC recruting website. Stickers were spotted near Armia Krajowa Museum in parking lot, in Kraków main station, in public toilets, and in some other places (by now there's at least 10 confirmed wagner pmc stickers in Kraków).
jeah... I'm so obstany ze strachu, that I can ledwo czytać in English 😅
And seriously: everything is possible, but there is more panic in Germany caused by self-burned e-cars, that in Poland by Wagner right now (until it sleeps).
GRU and KGB has it's ,,triggers" in Poland since ,,the west" fucked us in Jalta. It's going to be a couple more. And it's going to blow up somewhere, someday. Moust of us just know it.
Very good analysis, and very worrying too…
When you said "Troll the Poles" I had to stop the video because I was laughing so hard. 😂
Love your work Man!
AHAHAHAHA that guy with the patch isn't a Wagnerian he's just a pole in the Polish army who posts on /chug/!
I can't believe the madman caused so much uproar!
Hes a Polish dude
Hey, do you have the 27 minute Wagner Assault Commander "Zombi" interview subtitled??? I saw your video of the wagner commanders and i woukd like to watch the interview. Thx.
3:17 thanks for telling me what NOT to look up, now I can watch some real reporting
I like your videos, facts and rational analysis. We need more of it.
Keep up the great videos!
So Wagner's position leaves the West with at least six options: Belarus itself, Kyiv, Poland, Lithuania, Syria (and the Middle East), and Africa (in almost any direction). Meanwhile, like a couple of months after the "coup" in Russia and Wagner redeployment, Blinken started to 'express concern'. There should be an anti-swamp coup in America and redeployment of the American forces back from Ukraine, Poland and the rest of 'democracies to their last native male citizen'.
Smoked
The way you called out Bald and Bankrupt was unexpected but I’m happy you did
@@roddeazevedo I hope he is
What do you mean by called out? Did Bald and Bankrupt do something?
@@yzmey42113 basically in his younger years he posted under an alias on a forum confirmed to be him that he would go around poor Eastern European countries including Russia and he would gain the trust of local villagers and their elders and then sleep with their women and leave. In Chechnya a few years back he called a Chechen girl a bird or something or chick idk and Chechens interrogated and humiliated him. Not only was he disrespectful to locals but their traditions and customs too not just in Russia and Belarus but literally everywhere. Then when Russia invaded Ukraine in February he ran to Ukraine and went around the cities enjoying himself and criticising Russia and stuff and criticising Putin Slava Ukraini type stuff and tried to come back to Russia and then left
@@SK-ik9mc Not sure how trustworthy some unknown forum post is, it can be anyone but whatever. I don't usually believe these hearsay stories. I heard about the story in Chechnya, he made a compliment about a Chechen woman and so they detained him and make him apologize. In his video I never seen him being disrespectful to locals. The "Slava Ukraini" part is true, he said that in one of his videos long before the war started in 2022. He was in Moscow with Alina in that park that symbolizes various former Soviet republics, and when they walked by the building symbolizing Ukraine he said "Slava Ukraini". But he probably doesn't know the history of that slogan like most westerners.
The intro is super dope 😂.
17:18, that's is a nice border fence.
I think it's important to mention that a lot of the forested area south of Belarus is still contaminated with radioactive fallout from Chernobyl.
😂🤣You might wanna watch a BBC documentary about it and rethink that outdated info.
Yes they’ll invade Chernobyl
Yeah and you think that matters? We are talking about Wagner; the most fierce fighting force& biggest bunch of badasses in the world, not the U.S. Army of transsexuals!
И что ? Там много мутантов ? Хотя да , те кто к югу от Белоруссии уже давно мутировали мозгом .
@@ZootyZoFoYeah badass radiation poisoning .
_U-Cranium is successfully relocating their offensive to the defensiveline ¡_
You analysis is one of the best! Love watching this.
Very interesting and well documented as usual .Your evaluation of the exact number of"Wagnerians" is kind of frightening but probably accurate. I notice they like placing references to ww2 in their propaganda pictures : there is a very famous photo of ww2 showing german soldiers braking a border barrier on a road to Poland , of course the barrier bares the red and whites stripes. If these pictures carry some kind of truth than it means we are gone 70 years back in terms of civilization.
Западный мир со своим "мировым порядком, основанным на правилах" стремительно движется в сторону архаики. Небольшой поимер, культура отмены - это остракизм Древней Греции. Промышленное развитие заменяют сферой услуг. В религиозные убеждения возвращают принцип "око за око".
*Yes, unfortunately, the predatory strategy of NATO leaves no other options for Russia, and the experience of attacks on Russia over the past 300 years, even in Germany, received its name "Drang nach Osten" and the expansion of NATO to the East leaves Russia no options other than the complete and total destruction of Europe , let me remind you that as a result of the past "Drang nach Osten" euro of barbarians and cannibals, 27 million people died in Russia, of which 16 million were civilians!*
Most likely empty tanks and vehicles typical Russian maskirovka