Let's be factual here: RFK Jr. didn't bury the bear in Central Park. He laid it next to a bicycle in order to make it look like someone hit it, then fled the scene. Burying it in the park would be crazy.
I cannot believe that people attack this channel for being pro-Trump or pro-Harris. I guess sometimes people just get upset about politics at all. I've always found you balanced and reasoned. I don't always agree with your analyses, but I always appreciate your fair stance on world (and UK, European, and US) news.
I dont think its a Roght or Left issue. They have become very vapid and make wild predictions based on very little info, but cover their ‘guesses’ with the “anything can happen” caveat.
I don't think we should forget about VP nominees. JD Vance doesn't really bring any new voters into the Trump fold, and has been insulting demographics that he and Trump will need to win the election. Tim Walz on the other hand is a damn near perfect foil to Harris, broadening her ticket and actively trying to strengthen her position with rural white voters, demographics she struggles with.
I'm from Australia, and it amazes me from an outside perspective that anyone could be dumb enough to vote for Kamala; she has to be one of the dumbest people on earth, and it's concerning that we get no say in how these idiots control the world.
There’s a couple problems with this video 1. Majority of polls give Harris a slight lead over Trump instead of the other way around 2. Despite RFK giving his endorsement he is still on the ballot in several battle ground states and is likely to take more Trump voters over Harris especially since the endorsement 3. Harris is also doing well in polls in a majority of swing states even in polls that exclude RFK like NC or Wisconsin but still have him on the ballot
A slight lead is not good enough. You have to factor out millions of votes in safe spots like New York and California. If the election were today, it would pick an electoral college that would install trump and vance .
Joe Biden was up by 6 or 7 at this point in 2020 and collectively won by 40,000 votes in the swing states. Kamala has to win by more than she is leading in the polls now to actually win
@@DarkWhisper07 I mean the guy who is dismissing Harris' convention bump and he is just justifying it saying "trust me, bro". And seeing how you are using an argument from authority I guess that's enough for you. It isn't for me. I understand the UA-cam game is clickbaiting the fuck out of the algorithm, but this is really stupid.
Your analysis is incorrect on Republicans performing better at special elections in 24. They simply performed well in what were already heavily leaning Republican districts.
Not to mention they actually lost some ground in some areas. I heard that almost all the candidates endorsed by the GOP governor of Florida lost. The Moms for Liberty, a fascist group trying to get rid of “wokeness” in school lost almost all their positions.
There are many down ballot races in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina that will probably help Harris a lot..
@@HotRod67877you think Trump will outperform Harris in the debate? Good joke. If you watched the Biden-Trump debate, only reason Trump won it was because he sounded more capable than Biden, which really isn’t saying much whatsoever. If you watch Trump, he was still incoherent and rambled totally off topic from questions
@@MrRapmaster19 yeah but she said worst debater she didn't even make it to Iowa she trying to back out the debate like a coward because she knows she's going to lose
@@MrRapmaster19and also how is she going to defend her 4 years disaster record she's extremely unpopular with the Democrats not even Obama wanted her but she had to get her in there because of sleepy Joe
as a non-American, I think the real tragedy is the fact that neither republicans nor democrats can come up with a decent, sensible and capable presidential candidate. Harris with her dishonety, with her weird cacklings and nonsensical word salads and Trump with his complete lunacy are both frightening.
"She's a smidge behind"? You have to handpick polls to even get close to that assessment. I mean you can argue anything, but if you choose to rely on polls for assessment, you can hardly say that Harris is behind.
@@mrb152 oh is that what they said? That makes a bit more sense. Still a weird thing to point out, seing as both won the popular vote and one of the two also won the electoral vote.
@@hoodatdondar2664 everybody who wants to understand the first damn thing. Because that is the equivalent of national polls. You gotta compare apples with apples.
Last i checked Harris is leading Trump by 3.2% on 538 and winning in 5/7 swing states, and tied in 1 swing state, Georgia, and only losing in 1, North Carolina.
1) That is within the margin of error 2) Polls have never been good at measuring voter enthusiasm to get out and vote 3) Polls are only accurate at the moment that data is collected. Opinions can quickly change thanks to ads and gaffes
My prediction? People who love Trump will say he won. People who love Harris will say she won. As long as neither candidate has a serious gaffe, the debate isn't likely to change anything.
One other key factor is on the ground operation in swing states. The Harris campaign has over 20 offices in Pennsylvania, Trump has far fewer. Trump handed the RNC over to his daughter-in-law, and they have done hardly any organizing. I live in NC and the Harris campaign has been to my house twice, I don't even see any Trump signs nearby. This will be important in the election.
Trump's ground game isn't about winning (though if he pulls a win, they'll take it); it's about using the system's weak points to cast doubt on the results if he doesn't win, and then getting the win via the Supreme Court. I think that's how he wins this one.
@@haggisattack not to mention trump's campaign is already cutting their losses in flippable states they could have taken from the Democrats, i.e. New Hampshire and Minnesota. If they're pulling out of those states now, who knows where else they'll give up on by November.
Idk what indicators you're looking at that tell you Donald is ahead again. While Kamala's momentum has slowed, her lead hasn't vanished, it's stabilized. All of the election predictors and polling trackers I know still have Kamala as the favorite. Her lead isn't huge, but it's undeniable
@@mdl2427 He's not. Kamala has lead in 5 or more of the 7 swing states for the entirety of the past two weeks, with her leading in each of the 7 at some point during that period. Donald Trump has only lead in 3 of the 7 swing states during that period, and never simultaneously. Even if he won all three of them and Nevada (the closest swing state he hasn't lead during that period) Kamala would still win the electoral college.
I’m sorry but setting aside any partisanship, you guys really, really have to get better at research and fact-checking, especially with US politics. Like several others have said, every polling aggregator-538, RCP, even Nate Silver-has Harris ahead or tied in most swing states. Nate Silver’s election prediction model (which is what you cited in the start of the video) isn’t just a polling aggregator; it also tries to weigh external factors beyond polling (for instance, RFKJr dropping out) that might shape the election, and those factors are extremely fickle and prone to being misjudged (like, it already seems like he misjudged how much of an impact RFKJr’s endorsement of Trump would have). Framing her struggles in this specific model as her struggling in the polls is just not accurate. I’m hoping that this was an honest mistake, but even if it is, this is a really embarrassing error that would’ve taken five minutes of research to prevent.
They don't. Trump has provacateur bots roaming the internet just like a lot of major corporations or other political parties. At the same time, trumps base has meeting platforms where anti-trunp content will get linked for the purposes of old-school 4chan style raids. You can literally see this play out in real time on sites like 4chan and reddit if you catch it right.
It makes sense it’s an unbiased news channel that actually lets people form their own opinions over 74 million people voted for trump in 2020 you can’t expect them to all be crazy right wing same goes for how you can’t expect dems to be crazy leftists
They dont dude. Trunp’s people arent the self educational type. These are probably russians and bots. His folks are over on 4 chan if anywhere. Look for a low brow racist site and you’ll find em.
Their "journalism" is just reading the new york times, the guardian, the FT and sometimes some other random news source. Next time you watch a video and they list their sources in the description, you should read the articles and realise their entire video is just ripped from other journalists doing work.
For party unity, it was smart thing Harris picked Walz as VP. The American left loves the guy, so they felt they really got something with him. I see this as the reason, except for the overarching thing of beating Trump, that the left is muted on Harris. Plus, they might have finally realized a Democrat will still be more left-leaning than a Republican. Staying home in 2016, and being bitter about primaries, has not helped the left.
Gonna be honest as someone thats apart of the left and is pretty online, most of the left loves kamala harris to bits Although I definitely agree that Walz was the best vp pick and I'd argue most of the left like Walz more than Harris Bernie or Bust people make up a small minority of the left, most leftists genuinely agree the democrats are far better than republicans
@@chumley307 People like RFK take more away from the republicans than the democrats All of the government conspiracy shit and anti-vax stuff are way more appealing to republicans than democrats And again I think your vastly overestimating how much support West or Stein have, as well as how much support Trump has Kamala is leading trump in almost every single poll rn It's a much different story if we're talking about Pennsylvania, thats the only state we really have to worry about rn
@@smirkyshadow4152 Yes, but some influential voices were/are still sceptical. These people mostly flipped with the VP pick. They even say that the VP pick was a big gift to the progressive left.
0:25 For some apparent reason, and despite the polls still very much in Harris‘s favor, Nate Silver changed the win probability by three points in favor of Trump after just one day. He includes many polls that are blatantly Republican bias, and actually takes the betting markets into account. You guys shouldn’t take Nate Silver seriously.
As an Australian on the left: - Not getting a fracking ban is silly, but American politics are silly and fracking is not that major an issue for most people. - A federal job guarantee would be amazing, especially in 2024, but even Australia doesn't have one so selling it to America (where the elections are far more advantageous to the right) is a tall order. - Single-payer healthcare would be great, but it also shouldn't really be a federal government issue given how dysfunctional the fed is. The issue on the left-right axis that real matters, both in the short-term and long-term, is taxing the rich. Wealth inequality is corrosive to democracy and both are going to get worse if nothing is done about it. And I'm still appalled at her unthinkably stupid policy of "downpayment assistance" for housing (although as an Australian I'm really not in a position to complain about American housing policy).
Fracking is a major thing in Pennsylvania though. Pennsylvania is like the most important swing state this election so she tries to court the Pennsylvania swing voters
Federal jobs? Why the fuck would I care about federal job guarantees? We are being dragged into a war with Iran. Inflation and avoiding war are the most important thing right now. Most people who are going to vote for Trump are voting for that reason. Even people who like him.
@@foundationgamer9771 Wealth inequality is corrosive to democracy in 3 main ways. 1. As the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, people become disillusioned with the way society works and tend to support anti-establishment politicians even if they support and are the embodiment of the wealthy. 2. Naturally, in the US wealth basically buys you the government. 3. In general, the rich have a lot of power beyond buying elections, such as owning large corporations which dictate a lot of our day to day lives. Once you get rich enough you're basically untouchable to the governments of the world.
Regarding your comment on downpayment assistance, If you lived here in the US you would understand that both millennials and GenZ are caught in a vice of exploding high home values caused by corporate single family and condo home purchases and crushing student loan debts that candidly are a one two punch to the gut for them to be approved for mortgages or amass the down-payments needed to avoid expensive PMI rates. So 25k assistance on downpayment would help getting these young families out of their parents basements. So too would student loan debt relief.
I have always questioned the polls and question them even more now that these pollsters are kind of stuck with the samples they used when Biden was running. If you like her, go vote, if you like him, go vote. I'm personally going 100% for her as that 2020 election/Jan 6th stuff was 100% disqualifying.
Progressive? More war, higher grocery bills, utilities, gas prices, maybe we can start a nuclear war with Russia. Jan 6th was already proven to ve what the right always knew. It's only a few cnn viewers that still are misinformed and to lazy tk discover tgevtruth of the decomcrat's Jan 6th lies. Say, you know that whole Charlotte thing was a lie, oh, and Hunter Biden's laptop was really too. Anyways, your side will win with 107% of thevstolen vote. But, as long as ORANGE MAN BAD doesn't win... you do??
Y'all put a lot of confidence in the polls. My parents in their 70s have never met someone who took part in the polls and nobody my age and younger (43) has a landline.
The people running polls do know about mobiles and the internet. They do 3,000 to cover the whole country so you and your parents will probably never be polled. Don't be surprised.
Polling has become increasingly difficult because of that. Who answers an unknown caller on a cell phone? I think it's why Democrats have outperformed the polls in the recent past.
If you think this election isnt close you are out of touch. Even if polls gave Trump a 70% chance, its still a race. The possiblity of harris winning is segnificant. Edit: Betting markets give Trump 51%
At least half of us are fighting like hell to stop the rising tide of Fascism in the US, world! Please don't give up on us and support us however you can! 💖
The other half is fighting the actual threat: socialism. Socialism is the authoritarianism that has the grip on most of the worlds people from China, Vietnam, Venezeula. The only vaguely fascist country is Russia, which is actually run mostly by former socialist operatives who now run the country as a kleptocracy. There is not "rise of fascism" it's all in the a cover for socialist authoritiarans, as usual.
VPs don't really matter in america. now they can get thigns done for sure for sure. but they're not really important other than symbolism. though ofc if im wrong i'd be glad to be corrected.
@@dubby5768 She and Biden is on the same team. She was chosen to be VP because Biden's goals align with her, and she's literally in charge of the border. Why isn't she doing anything now?
He tried calling the Harris Campaign first and they wouldn’t even hear him out. So he called Trump to see if he could work to get some things done and they responded with open arms.
If there's one thing I DON'T want this year, it's a Trump-Biden rematch. But now that VP Harris is the nominee, whoever wins in November, a Trump-Harris rematch in 2028 is what I want EVEN LESS.
My guess is the debate and sentencing in NY will hurt Trump further. Kamala should continue reaching out to moderates and ignore Trump's attacks. She would be wise to do more interviews with friendly/neutral outlets as well.
TLDR is basicly the best most relayable News coverage when it comes to topic in the US . I miss your TLDR US news Channel and if i have to sub to nebula in order to see something like it . that fine. your amarica new channel didn't get the views it needd to be cost effect so im happy to pay for it on Nebula
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio?, I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist
Americans don't have much to choose from with two political parties - one being right (Republicans) and the other being centre right (Democrats). At least Harris/Walz are refreshing compared to Trump/Vance constant whining and negativity.
Kamala, Kamala, Kamala! To rhyme with ‘Pamela’. That was what a group of black women were shouting at the Convention. I’ll tell them you said to shut up.
Would love to see some videos on the US Senate and house elections. These are almost as important as the presidential election and are being massively undercoverred
@@saoirseewing4877 Or, in my case, I like policies from both sides, but the policies I like don't mesh up well enough for me to swing towards either side.
Bit unrelated(this is really the most related place for me to say this in), but communism has been used as a buzzword against democrats so much it now just means "this person who i dont like is to the left of me grrrr" Actual communists should make a new word at this point instead of trying to explain how their personal definition is actually not met by the soviet union so erm please stop using it as an insult
It's like the the terms migrant, illegal immigrant and asylum seeker in Europe, all the words have lost any of their actual meaning, it just describes any sort of foreigner who's assumed to be a bad person thats cheating the system.
Socialist medicine, price fixing, being controlled by the economic elite, taking away gun ownership, economic disaster, etc. sounds like communism to me. You are so far left its unbelievable. You are going to cause a civil war.
@@ToneyCrimson that is false in an important way. UA-cam gives you ads that the advertiser wants to pay to give to you given your data. UA-cam will gladly give you adds that don’t fit your interest if the advertiser says “I want to bid on all people in this area”
@LevNikolayevichMyshkin So since she's a minority and a women it invalidate her as a candidate. Then Republicans wonder why women and minorities aren't voting for them 😂
@@LevNikolayevichMyshkin It's funny, because this comment show how little substance any insults against Harris have. Against Biden, you guys could say he was old, but now that Harris' on the ticket, Republicans have been scrambling to find a good angle to attack her, and it's all boiled down to her race and gender in the end.
@@TheAmericanPrometheusMy main issue with his methodology is that he put down Harris 2 points from the polls to the “predicted outcomes” to account for a convention bump, which most people have noted hasn’t happened. His model also includes Rasmussen who are notoriously unreliable (to the point 538 stopped using them) and drag down Harris’ average in every polling aggregator they are used in.
You're absolutely wrong on the third point. She has received MAJOR backlash from leftists on her more moderate and warhawk positions. Most notably, from Michigan and the "Uncommitted Movement". This will probably lead to many younger voters voting for Jill Stein or Cornell West or staying home altogether.
@@eric2500 Don't you have it the other way around? And they're supposed to mobilize this turn-around from positioning in 6 weeks?!? What are they going to do? Fire Toni Blinken, re-do the DNC, add extra tour dates they don't have to Michigan, outsource half of the promotional videos with conflicting narratives in regards to immigration and foreign policy and change the DOJ to take Black liberation groups off the FBI Watch List?!? You're delusional.
@@eric2500 She better hope the warhawk baby boomers and the centrist Gen Xers she's been sucking up to win her the election, because most of the progressive millennials and the leftist Gen Zers are staying home on this one.
As an American I’ll be voting for Trump this election because life was generally better/cheaper under his leadership. I also agree with any further aid to Ukraine be in the form of loans like it was for our Allies in WW2.
Literally not true. Trump needs just Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania to win. Most likely who gets Pennsylvania wins the elections, it's by far the most important state.
eh Pennsylvania will be the most important swing state in this election followed by Georgia The other swing states are important but those are the most important due to how large they are combined with how close these elections will be.
@@kagnetix6674 yes. But Georgia and NC are harder to get than the other swing states. So the GA, NC, and Pennsylvania route is by far the strongest for Trump and Pennsylvania remains the most important state.
@@davidescristofaros2241 Consiering the soaring rates of registration from The strongest democratic blocs IE minority women is up 175% recently these states are looking heavily underpolled for her.
One line that trips up pro-abortion candidates in the US is the assumption that men are anti-abortion. Not only does this just come across as misandric ans de-incentivise men to vote for them, but it's plain wrong- men support abortion at similar rates to women.
I like this channel, but you clearly aren't reading the updated polls correctly. She's up by a much wider margin than you seem to be claiming here, though it's smart for her to always run as an underdog.
Let's be factual here: RFK Jr. didn't bury the bear in Central Park. He laid it next to a bicycle in order to make it look like someone hit it, then fled the scene. Burying it in the park would be crazy.
Letting a dead bear in Central Park is crazy too.
@@Paulxl irony is dead.
Reading the joke explains the joke. @@Paulxl
😂
In today's world with wacky beliefs being as common as they are, I'd like to bring back the tonal indicators for text.
/s being one of them.
I cannot believe that people attack this channel for being pro-Trump or pro-Harris. I guess sometimes people just get upset about politics at all. I've always found you balanced and reasoned. I don't always agree with your analyses, but I always appreciate your fair stance on world (and UK, European, and US) news.
I dont think its a Roght or Left issue. They have become very vapid and make wild predictions based on very little info, but cover their ‘guesses’ with the “anything can happen” caveat.
Some people are used to only viewing media that is heavily biased in their direction.
Basically this channel just shows news of us, uk, Europe. The world is just these three places according to this channel
@@AnjaliApta-qt1iw they have a tldr global, go watch that
@@AnjaliApta-qt1iw That’s still two more places than the us covers.
RFK didn't bury the bear, he propped it up like it was riding a bike.
😂😂😂 I just started learning the true lore of Trump and RFK and it truly only gets more wild .
This is somehow more bizarre
Would be a good time to restart TLDR US
Yeah, I'm still surprised they didn't at least bring the channel back for presidential election coverage >_
@@deuscain They should probably continue it even after elections
Isn't that on Nebula or something?
They got What the fuck USA or whatever the channel is.
@@ZombiePepperoni what to follow usa
The winner is going to be more about who bothers to turn up and vote than which candidate is preferred.
I'd argue enthusiasm is high on both sides, but enthusiasm for Trump is still higher.
Remember when Hillary was going to win easily, then the lazy didn't bother to vote? Lmao
I don't think we should forget about VP nominees. JD Vance doesn't really bring any new voters into the Trump fold, and has been insulting demographics that he and Trump will need to win the election. Tim Walz on the other hand is a damn near perfect foil to Harris, broadening her ticket and actively trying to strengthen her position with rural white voters, demographics she struggles with.
JD Vance literally takes votes away!!!! No one likes him!!!! Worse VP pick in US history.
She will need all the help she can get, as the underdog.
I'm from Australia, and it amazes me from an outside perspective that anyone could be dumb enough to vote for Kamala; she has to be one of the dumbest people on earth, and it's concerning that we get no say in how these idiots control the world.
VP doesn't matter.
@@NorthPoleSun: The VP is also the Senate President, and thus has the final say in voting on contentious matters... so yeah, IT DOES.
There’s a couple problems with this video
1. Majority of polls give Harris a slight lead over Trump instead of the other way around
2. Despite RFK giving his endorsement he is still on the ballot in several battle ground states and is likely to take more Trump voters over Harris especially since the endorsement
3. Harris is also doing well in polls in a majority of swing states even in polls that exclude RFK like NC or Wisconsin but still have him on the ballot
I don't think they're using aggregate polling.
Rfk is not standing in battle ground states
@@strategicplays2977 True except Michigan it was ruled he couldn't be taken off the ballot
A slight lead is not good enough. You have to factor out millions of votes in safe spots like New York and California.
If the election were today, it would pick an electoral college that would install trump and vance .
Aged like milk 😂
Is this video’s whole premise based on one outlier poll when the vast majority is showing Kamala in the lead?
I thought exactly that. Nate Silver is clearly saying a lot of bs to justify Trump having the edge.
@@Paulxl his model is not serious 538 is better
Theyre just using that as the premise so TLDR can have a discussion on the points to counter the video they made for trump.
Joe Biden was up by 6 or 7 at this point in 2020 and collectively won by 40,000 votes in the swing states. Kamala has to win by more than she is leading in the polls now to actually win
Even kjp claimed polls don't tell the real story
Your interpretation of polls are way off .
They are taking Nate Silver (the odd one out) at face value.
@@Paulxl You mean the guy who has a stellar track record in predicting US elections..?
@@DarkWhisper07 Allan Lichtman - The Keys to the White House
@@Paulxl FiveThirtyEight forced Nate Silver out...
@@DarkWhisper07 I mean the guy who is dismissing Harris' convention bump and he is just justifying it saying "trust me, bro". And seeing how you are using an argument from authority I guess that's enough for you. It isn't for me. I understand the UA-cam game is clickbaiting the fuck out of the algorithm, but this is really stupid.
Your analysis is incorrect on Republicans performing better at special elections in 24. They simply performed well in what were already heavily leaning Republican districts.
Not to mention they actually lost some ground in some areas. I heard that almost all the candidates endorsed by the GOP governor of Florida lost. The Moms for Liberty, a fascist group trying to get rid of “wokeness” in school lost almost all their positions.
The republicans are over represented in the polls by far.
i mean , Perfoming better = Performed Well
There are many down ballot races in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina that will probably help Harris a lot..
Yeah I don't think that's going to happen after the debate
@@HotRod67877 That's because it's impossible for you to conceive of Trump not winning,... unless dems "cheat".
@@HotRod67877you think Trump will outperform Harris in the debate? Good joke. If you watched the Biden-Trump debate, only reason Trump won it was because he sounded more capable than Biden, which really isn’t saying much whatsoever. If you watch Trump, he was still incoherent and rambled totally off topic from questions
@@MrRapmaster19 yeah but she said worst debater she didn't even make it to Iowa she trying to back out the debate like a coward because she knows she's going to lose
@@MrRapmaster19and also how is she going to defend her 4 years disaster record she's extremely unpopular with the Democrats not even Obama wanted her but she had to get her in there because of sleepy Joe
She now has *four* reasons. Do one more debate, and she will have *five* reasons.
As a Non-American, it is kinda embarrassing how many Americans still support Donald Trump.
As an American, it’s embarrassing to see how folks support establishment politicians
As an american, statements like this are one of the reasons people support Donald Trump.
as a non-American, I think the real tragedy is the fact that neither republicans nor democrats can come up with a decent, sensible and capable presidential candidate. Harris with her dishonety, with her weird cacklings and nonsensical word salads and Trump with his complete lunacy are both frightening.
@@solinvictus6587 Trump interrupted the peaceful transfer of power. He should have been disqualified on that basis alone
@@tefky7964 a politician which tried to incite a coup is considered establishment politician? The beacon of democracy right there…
RFK is the kind of guy you just want to sit down and have a bear with.
A Grizzly bear?
Lol
"She's a smidge behind"? You have to handpick polls to even get close to that assessment.
I mean you can argue anything, but if you choose to rely on polls for assessment, you can hardly say that Harris is behind.
She's further behind now than both Biden and Clinton were at the same time.
@@mrb152 oh is that what they said? That makes a bit more sense. Still a weird thing to point out, seing as both won the popular vote and one of the two also won the electoral vote.
@@gjk282 Who cares about the popular vote?? People keep saying that as though it means something.
@@hoodatdondar2664 everybody who wants to understand the first damn thing.
Because that is the equivalent of national polls. You gotta compare apples with apples.
Last i checked Harris is leading Trump by 3.2% on 538 and winning in 5/7 swing states, and tied in 1 swing state, Georgia, and only losing in 1, North Carolina.
Last I heard according to yesterday, Trump was ahead in most of them.
I'll come back to this comment when trump beats the DEI hire
1) That is within the margin of error
2) Polls have never been good at measuring voter enthusiasm to get out and vote
3) Polls are only accurate at the moment that data is collected. Opinions can quickly change thanks to ads and gaffes
FiveThirtyEight has become a sham since they forced Nate Silver out, they've completely changed the data set they consider
Kjp herself declared polls don't tell the real story
There is a good reason to believe why she will humiliate Trump in the debate.
Bahahaha 🤣
She'll humiliate herself.
My prediction? People who love Trump will say he won. People who love Harris will say she won. As long as neither candidate has a serious gaffe, the debate isn't likely to change anything.
@@chumley307 just like some ppl said Biden won his debate I guess
@@jedi77palmer Lol, even the staunchest liberals had to admit that was a failure
One other key factor is on the ground operation in swing states. The Harris campaign has over 20 offices in Pennsylvania, Trump has far fewer. Trump handed the RNC over to his daughter-in-law, and they have done hardly any organizing. I live in NC and the Harris campaign has been to my house twice, I don't even see any Trump signs nearby. This will be important in the election.
Trump's ground game isn't about winning (though if he pulls a win, they'll take it); it's about using the system's weak points to cast doubt on the results if he doesn't win, and then getting the win via the Supreme Court. I think that's how he wins this one.
@@haggisattack not to mention trump's campaign is already cutting their losses in flippable states they could have taken from the Democrats, i.e. New Hampshire and Minnesota. If they're pulling out of those states now, who knows where else they'll give up on by November.
Idk what indicators you're looking at that tell you Donald is ahead again. While Kamala's momentum has slowed, her lead hasn't vanished, it's stabilized. All of the election predictors and polling trackers I know still have Kamala as the favorite. Her lead isn't huge, but it's undeniable
@@VoidHeart56 because he's ahead in the swing states
@@mdl2427in what poll. Real clear piltics and 538 have harris winning
@@mdl2427 He's not. Kamala has lead in 5 or more of the 7 swing states for the entirety of the past two weeks, with her leading in each of the 7 at some point during that period. Donald Trump has only lead in 3 of the 7 swing states during that period, and never simultaneously. Even if he won all three of them and Nevada (the closest swing state he hasn't lead during that period) Kamala would still win the electoral college.
@@mooniv4356 not in key swings states
@mdl2427 yes she is. She's ahead in the main 3 and Arizona and Nevada
I’m sorry but setting aside any partisanship, you guys really, really have to get better at research and fact-checking, especially with US politics. Like several others have said, every polling aggregator-538, RCP, even Nate Silver-has Harris ahead or tied in most swing states. Nate Silver’s election prediction model (which is what you cited in the start of the video) isn’t just a polling aggregator; it also tries to weigh external factors beyond polling (for instance, RFKJr dropping out) that might shape the election, and those factors are extremely fickle and prone to being misjudged (like, it already seems like he misjudged how much of an impact RFKJr’s endorsement of Trump would have). Framing her struggles in this specific model as her struggling in the polls is just not accurate. I’m hoping that this was an honest mistake, but even if it is, this is a really embarrassing error that would’ve taken five minutes of research to prevent.
I never knew so many Trump supporters watch TLDR.
They don't. Trump has provacateur bots roaming the internet just like a lot of major corporations or other political parties.
At the same time, trumps base has meeting platforms where anti-trunp content will get linked for the purposes of old-school 4chan style raids. You can literally see this play out in real time on sites like 4chan and reddit if you catch it right.
Most of them are bots
TLDR is fake news
It makes sense it’s an unbiased news channel that actually lets people form their own opinions over 74 million people voted for trump in 2020 you can’t expect them to all be crazy right wing same goes for how you can’t expect dems to be crazy leftists
They dont dude. Trunp’s people arent the self educational type. These are probably russians and bots. His folks are over on 4 chan if anywhere. Look for a low brow racist site and you’ll find em.
Huh? What polls are you looking at? Rasmussen? Trafalgar?
Unbelievable journalism.
They are taking Nate Silver at face value when he is reaching.
they were accused of siding with the far left so to compensate they're swinging the other way
@@Paulxl nate silver model is crazy 538 is better
The cope bots are out in force
Their "journalism" is just reading the new york times, the guardian, the FT and sometimes some other random news source. Next time you watch a video and they list their sources in the description, you should read the articles and realise their entire video is just ripped from other journalists doing work.
For party unity, it was smart thing Harris picked Walz as VP. The American left loves the guy, so they felt they really got something with him. I see this as the reason, except for the overarching thing of beating Trump, that the left is muted on Harris. Plus, they might have finally realized a Democrat will still be more left-leaning than a Republican. Staying home in 2016, and being bitter about primaries, has not helped the left.
Gonna be honest as someone thats apart of the left and is pretty online, most of the left loves kamala harris to bits
Although I definitely agree that Walz was the best vp pick and I'd argue most of the left like Walz more than Harris
Bernie or Bust people make up a small minority of the left, most leftists genuinely agree the democrats are far better than republicans
@@smirkyshadow4152 Most, but not all. If it's even just 10% who decide to vote for West or Stein (or stay home), Trump will have a much easier time.
@@chumley307 People like RFK take more away from the republicans than the democrats
All of the government conspiracy shit and anti-vax stuff are way more appealing to republicans than democrats
And again I think your vastly overestimating how much support West or Stein have, as well as how much support Trump has
Kamala is leading trump in almost every single poll rn
It's a much different story if we're talking about Pennsylvania, thats the only state we really have to worry about rn
@@smirkyshadow4152 Yes, but some influential voices were/are still sceptical. These people mostly flipped with the VP pick. They even say that the VP pick was a big gift to the progressive left.
@@AntonSjöstedt give me the name of an influential leftist that wasn’t onboard with Kamala
0:25
For some apparent reason, and despite the polls still very much in Harris‘s favor, Nate Silver changed the win probability by three points in favor of Trump after just one day. He includes many polls that are blatantly Republican bias, and actually takes the betting markets into account.
You guys shouldn’t take Nate Silver seriously.
Nate Silver shouldn't take Nate Silver seriously
Nate Silver has been forced out of FiveThirtyEight...
Every election nerd I know on Twitter loves to shit on Silver for his downfall
As an Australian on the left:
- Not getting a fracking ban is silly, but American politics are silly and fracking is not that major an issue for most people.
- A federal job guarantee would be amazing, especially in 2024, but even Australia doesn't have one so selling it to America (where the elections are far more advantageous to the right) is a tall order.
- Single-payer healthcare would be great, but it also shouldn't really be a federal government issue given how dysfunctional the fed is.
The issue on the left-right axis that real matters, both in the short-term and long-term, is taxing the rich. Wealth inequality is corrosive to democracy and both are going to get worse if nothing is done about it. And I'm still appalled at her unthinkably stupid policy of "downpayment assistance" for housing (although as an Australian I'm really not in a position to complain about American housing policy).
Fracking is a major thing in Pennsylvania though. Pennsylvania is like the most important swing state this election so she tries to court the Pennsylvania swing voters
How is wealth inequality corrosive to democracy? One man, one vote completely ignores factors of wealth, so what gives?
Federal jobs? Why the fuck would I care about federal job guarantees? We are being dragged into a war with Iran. Inflation and avoiding war are the most important thing right now. Most people who are going to vote for Trump are voting for that reason. Even people who like him.
@@foundationgamer9771 Wealth inequality is corrosive to democracy in 3 main ways.
1. As the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, people become disillusioned with the way society works and tend to support anti-establishment politicians even if they support and are the embodiment of the wealthy.
2. Naturally, in the US wealth basically buys you the government.
3. In general, the rich have a lot of power beyond buying elections, such as owning large corporations which dictate a lot of our day to day lives. Once you get rich enough you're basically untouchable to the governments of the world.
Regarding your comment on downpayment assistance, If you lived here in the US you would understand that both millennials and GenZ are caught in a vice of exploding high home values caused by corporate single family and condo home purchases and crushing student loan debts that candidly are a one two punch to the gut for them to be approved for mortgages or amass the down-payments needed to avoid expensive PMI rates. So 25k assistance on downpayment would help getting these young families out of their parents basements. So too would student loan debt relief.
You seem to have seen some wired outlier polls
I have always questioned the polls and question them even more now that these pollsters are kind of stuck with the samples they used when Biden was running. If you like her, go vote, if you like him, go vote. I'm personally going 100% for her as that 2020 election/Jan 6th stuff was 100% disqualifying.
Progressive?
More war, higher grocery bills, utilities, gas prices, maybe we can start a nuclear war with Russia. Jan 6th was already proven to ve what the right always knew. It's only a few cnn viewers that still are misinformed and to lazy tk discover tgevtruth of the decomcrat's Jan 6th lies. Say, you know that whole Charlotte thing was a lie, oh, and Hunter Biden's laptop was really too. Anyways, your side will win with 107% of thevstolen vote. But, as long as ORANGE MAN BAD doesn't win... you do??
Agree 100%
Y'all put a lot of confidence in the polls. My parents in their 70s have never met someone who took part in the polls and nobody my age and younger (43) has a landline.
43. The age of the oldest millennials.
The people running polls do know about mobiles and the internet. They do 3,000 to cover the whole country so you and your parents will probably never be polled. Don't be surprised.
Polling has become increasingly difficult because of that. Who answers an unknown caller on a cell phone? I think it's why Democrats have outperformed the polls in the recent past.
3:43 Gyatt
True
True
True
True
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next:Three reasons why tomorrow would never come
Not in the backwards shithole that is the US, in europe we are fine
Such incredible cope
If you think this election isnt close you are out of touch. Even if polls gave Trump a 70% chance, its still a race. The possiblity of harris winning is segnificant.
Edit: Betting markets give Trump 51%
Three reasons why tomorrow will come
@@joshuanorman2They said the same in 2020, even convinced themselves yesterday never came
Appreciate TLDR always making videos from both sides, refreshing to see 🙌🙌
I’d also add another reason. Trump is definitely unpopular thank people think
And Kamala is popular?
@@HeortirtheWoodwarden Yes she has a favorability of +1 .
Walz = +12
Vance = -25
Trump = -9
The US electorial system is absurdly complicated...and not standard across the country...
Waiting for Allan Lichtman to weigh in. He says polls don’t matter but rather who currently controls the White House along with 12 other issues.
I haven’t seen the 538 averages move all that much though…..? Where’s the dynamic shift?
At least half of us are fighting like hell to stop the rising tide of Fascism in the US, world! Please don't give up on us and support us however you can! 💖
Define "fascism".
is the fascism in room with you?
@@HeortirtheWoodwarden Mass deportations!
The other half is fighting the actual threat: socialism. Socialism is the authoritarianism that has the grip on most of the worlds people from China, Vietnam, Venezeula. The only vaguely fascist country is Russia, which is actually run mostly by former socialist operatives who now run the country as a kleptocracy. There is not "rise of fascism" it's all in the a cover for socialist authoritiarans, as usual.
Doesn't change the fact that she's still in the Executive Branch and can do something about her campaign promises NOW.
VPs don't really matter in america. now they can get thigns done for sure for sure. but they're not really important other than symbolism. though ofc if im wrong i'd be glad to be corrected.
@@dubby5768 She and Biden is on the same team. She was chosen to be VP because Biden's goals align with her, and she's literally in charge of the border. Why isn't she doing anything now?
Mostly because trump hasn't won anything since 2016, few politicians can have such a tremendous losing streak and still be a candidate
Nixon
Kamala also didn't win the presidential nomination in 2020.
@@uanime1 your right she won with joe biden
Neither did Kamala. In 2020 she was the first one out.
@@Aaron_Guest She's still won all the other races she's run in
I'm American & I'm also wondering "WTF, USA?!?!" & have been for ~10 years....
I liked RFK... But he backed out and became a traitor to his battle. I see that as a coward move.
He tried calling the Harris Campaign first and they wouldn’t even hear him out. So he called Trump to see if he could work to get some things done and they responded with open arms.
If there's one thing I DON'T want this year, it's a Trump-Biden rematch. But now that VP Harris is the nominee, whoever wins in November, a Trump-Harris rematch in 2028 is what I want EVEN LESS.
The US spectrum is so warped if you think stances like that on healthcare are centrist.
To who?
TLDR: we don't have a left wing bias.
Put a video like this out.
Forgot to add the “this video was paid for by the Harris for president” thing. Lmao
You forgot to watch the one they may before giving 3 reasons Trump would win. You're angry about the sequel when you never even saw the original.
@@JohnDoe-pk2hs no it’s just a bad video.
My guess is the debate and sentencing in NY will hurt Trump further. Kamala should continue reaching out to moderates and ignore Trump's attacks. She would be wise to do more interviews with friendly/neutral outlets as well.
Can and will. Decisively
38 likes in two minutes? hmmm
@@OscarBorrem Seems like this user is a bot....
Hell no
@@OscarBorrem Refresh the page. The likes & time update differently🤦♂. I would tell you to use your head but...🤷♂
She's not gonna win
Nobody wants harris
Harris for the White House 2024
trump for the Big House 2025
Everyone to the POOR HOUSE.
@@mah29001I’m going to the HAUNTED HOUSE
@@JamailvanWestering Does it have an OUT HOUSE?
@@chumley307 I don’t know but look at that ugly TOWN HOUSE!
@@JamailvanWestering Ever watch Michael Landon on LITTLE HOUSE?
TLDR is basicly the best most relayable News coverage when it comes to topic in the US . I miss your TLDR US news Channel and if i have to sub to nebula in order to see something like it . that fine. your amarica new channel didn't get the views it needd to be cost effect so im happy to pay for it on Nebula
These guys are playing both sides 😂
Thank you for balanced news
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio?, I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.
I just curiously searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. Thank you
Spam bots out in force. Because people with those levels of returns will clearly take on new clients via an email sparked from a UA-cam comment lol
BOT ALERT
Americans don't have much to choose from with two political parties - one being right (Republicans) and the other being centre right (Democrats). At least Harris/Walz are refreshing compared to Trump/Vance constant whining and negativity.
HARRIS can beat Trump. Use the female candidate’s LAST NAME just like you do with the male candidate.
"Kamala" sounds more distinctive.
Jamala sounds cooler
Screaching about how men are treated with so much respect in politics is surely convincing to anyone not familiar with politics at all.
Kamala, Kamala, Kamala! To rhyme with ‘Pamela’.
That was what a group of black women were shouting at the Convention.
I’ll tell them you said to shut up.
Would love to see some videos on the US Senate and house elections. These are almost as important as the presidential election and are being massively undercoverred
The moderate independent centre is a myth
Cope
@@saoirseewing4877 no, it's the code for "i won't deal with liberal bullshit or republican lies"
@@saoirseewing4877 Or, in my case, I like policies from both sides, but the policies I like don't mesh up well enough for me to swing towards either side.
No that’s video is sponsored my the Harris waltz campaign 😂😂
Bit unrelated(this is really the most related place for me to say this in), but communism has been used as a buzzword against democrats so much it now just means "this person who i dont like is to the left of me grrrr"
Actual communists should make a new word at this point instead of trying to explain how their personal definition is actually not met by the soviet union so erm please stop using it as an insult
It's like the the terms migrant, illegal immigrant and asylum seeker in Europe, all the words have lost any of their actual meaning, it just describes any sort of foreigner who's assumed to be a bad person thats cheating the system.
Progressive is another word for communist. Are you a progressive?
Socialist medicine, price fixing, being controlled by the economic elite, taking away gun ownership, economic disaster, etc. sounds like communism to me. You are so far left its unbelievable. You are going to cause a civil war.
i've started to use the term "post-progressive" as my practical framework for radical politics
@@Gregorythe5_5551st how many times have you screamed fascist?
Copium 2.0 😂😂
Why am i getting a Ad about DR Fauci? This stuff is wild.
It gives you ads based on your interests. UA-cam algorithem most of the times now you better than you do.
@@ToneyCrimson that is false in an important way. UA-cam gives you ads that the advertiser wants to pay to give to you given your data. UA-cam will gladly give you adds that don’t fit your interest if the advertiser says “I want to bid on all people in this area”
The ad is just WooooooW
I read RealClearPolitics and Trump is getting stomped. I don’t know what you’ve been reading.
They have been reading the bs Nate Silver has been saying.
Ah The Electoral College, one of Slavery's enduring legacy.
Can and will. Decisively.
Cope and seethe. Trump's gonna win this, Kamala is a late minute JOKE.
No way you get a DEI president. It's hoever.
@LevNikolayevichMyshkin So since she's a minority and a women it invalidate her as a candidate. Then Republicans wonder why women and minorities aren't voting for them 😂
LMFAO now that's hopium
@@LevNikolayevichMyshkin It's funny, because this comment show how little substance any insults against Harris have. Against Biden, you guys could say he was old, but now that Harris' on the ticket, Republicans have been scrambling to find a good angle to attack her, and it's all boiled down to her race and gender in the end.
"WTF, USA??"
You are so right to ask. Don't blame you for looking askance, we worry ourselves, we are looking askance ourselves. At ourselves.
3 reasons why something will or won't happen )
The only battle ground state Trump is higher than Harris is North Carolina and is .3%
Why are you use Nate Silver when he's currently being funded by Peter Thiel. There are so many other better sources of polling.
He's funded by Thiel??? Which one? 538 or his new website(Silver Bulletin)?
Wait what? Nate Silver is being funded by Thiel?
Silver Bulletin. He hasn't been involved with 538 since last year.
So what's your issue with his polling methodology?
@@TheAmericanPrometheusMy main issue with his methodology is that he put down Harris 2 points from the polls to the “predicted outcomes” to account for a convention bump, which most people have noted hasn’t happened. His model also includes Rasmussen who are notoriously unreliable (to the point 538 stopped using them) and drag down Harris’ average in every polling aggregator they are used in.
This is such a shallow analysis, social media is not real life, polling isn’t even real.
oh lordy
This is one of those times when even if you are not colorblind, instead of seeing blue and red you see purple and purple.
This video is weird - from the polls aggregators Harris is ahead in almost all swing states.
Kjp herself declared polls don't tell the real story
You're absolutely wrong on the third point. She has received MAJOR backlash from leftists on her more moderate and warhawk positions. Most notably, from Michigan and the "Uncommitted Movement". This will probably lead to many younger voters voting for Jill Stein or Cornell West or staying home altogether.
Maybe. This is still in play and there is a unique opportunity for Biden to play good cop and Harris to play bad cop.
@@eric2500 Don't you have it the other way around? And they're supposed to mobilize this turn-around from positioning in 6 weeks?!? What are they going to do? Fire Toni Blinken, re-do the DNC, add extra tour dates they don't have to Michigan, outsource half of the promotional videos with conflicting narratives in regards to immigration and foreign policy and change the DOJ to take Black liberation groups off the FBI Watch List?!? You're delusional.
@@eric2500 She better hope the warhawk baby boomers and the centrist Gen Xers she's been sucking up to win her the election, because most of the progressive millennials and the leftist Gen Zers are staying home on this one.
What polls are you looking at? The vast majority of polling puts Harris ahead, not just on popular vote but also odds of winning etc
Donold is about to enter retired home or jail
He about to enter the White House and Harris is about to enter a white room in a straitjacket
Still can't pronounce Maryland correctly 😂😂😂😂😂
It's a fine line to discuss this objectively. Looks good so far! Good work!
Downvoted for only using Nate Silver.
As an American I’ll be voting for Trump this election because life was generally better/cheaper under his leadership. I also agree with any further aid to Ukraine be in the form of loans like it was for our Allies in WW2.
Wasn't covid under trump? Surely that messes with things
Things was better under trump because covid wasn’t really a thing until late 2019. Biden had to step in on a already hurt economy
Trump became president in middle of a great economic boom (from 2009) while Biden got heavily hurt post COVID economy
Stop saying there's no bias. It only means you are biased. Just keep doing good reporting and let the viewer decide about any bias.
Yeah they have a visible bias for a long time now and it feels so fake to hear them pretend its otherwise.. starts to feel like tv media
Trump or Bust !
Too Long Didnt Read The Polls.
1. No voter ID required
2. 2am boxes of ballots dropped off
3. Voting machines hooked up to internet
Those are my 3 reasons why she will win
YEP!
Trump admitted he lost in 2020 cope
Just my early morning instructions on how to disbelieve my eyes and ears in 2 months slop slop slop… nummm num num num
1) she lies
2) she cheats
3) she steals
I can reliably trust trump to continue his his usual childish behavior
I think people focus waaaay too much on Pennsylvania. It’s a big state yes. But if Harris wins the others it doesn’t really matter.
Literally not true. Trump needs just Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania to win.
Most likely who gets Pennsylvania wins the elections, it's by far the most important state.
eh Pennsylvania will be the most important swing state in this election followed by Georgia
The other swing states are important but those are the most important due to how large they are combined with how close these elections will be.
@@davidescristofaros2241 Harris could snatch either NC or Georgia and Trumps pathway to 270 is almost fully gone.
@@kagnetix6674 yes. But Georgia and NC are harder to get than the other swing states. So the GA, NC, and Pennsylvania route is by far the strongest for Trump and Pennsylvania remains the most important state.
@@davidescristofaros2241 Consiering the soaring rates of registration from The strongest democratic blocs IE minority women is up 175% recently these states are looking heavily underpolled for her.
What polls are these ? When did they come out? Who did them?
Ok you had me there. That channel name is clever. 😂
Jesus Christ american politics are fucked
Harris needs to do more interviews!
One line that trips up pro-abortion candidates in the US is the assumption that men are anti-abortion. Not only does this just come across as misandric ans de-incentivise men to vote for them, but it's plain wrong- men support abortion at similar rates to women.
Your other video wasn't Trump can win it was called Trump will win, you renamed it.
Not saying you have bias, but it is an odd but of retcon.
Here's the title of the other vid
"3 Reason Trump Could Still Beat Kamala"
as far as I'm aware the first one was changed to how trump *can* win after backlash, so i imagine they're just trying not to repeat their mistakes
We are not going back!
Change doesnt happen unless you vote for it. Vote Harris.
Harris is already in charge with Biden, voting for Harris is voting for more of the same..?
Vote trump 2024
Bot
How is it voting for change when you vote for the sitting Vice President?
@@michaelscott3946 how is voting for Harris voting for change? She is in power now?
It is also more than two months until voting day. A lot can happen so at this point predictions are a muggs game.
She will!
Nah she won't
Why has she not done a live interview ?
Interviews are not being done live. These are called press-confereces. Interviews are always pre-recorded
Does she have to?
@@Bob-Fieldsyes
@@HotRod67877Nope.
@@robertking4645cope
It would be a tragedy for the USA if Trump were to win. It would be governance under the Christian Hayseeds.
no couches would be safe
@@bulkax303lol 😆
I like this channel, but you clearly aren't reading the updated polls correctly. She's up by a much wider margin than you seem to be claiming here, though it's smart for her to always run as an underdog.