Thank the electoral college, people blaming the inflation on biden instead of the pandemic, Trump appeasing to young white voters, and him almost being assassinated twice.
Nah, today if someone takes away your fundamental rights they are actually a great politician. I would like to believe Trump's gonna lose by a big margin, but America's an odd place.
@@waltercommunitycollege1615 oh idk, right to abortion? right to proper healthcare? right to a fair judicial system? right to free speech? He has turned this country upside down and turned good hearted Americans aginst each other by spurring on hatred and division, everything the USA should not be about.
There is a logic to the Nevada issue. It's that Nevada, Arizona and Georgia broke hard for trump this time because they are mainly white rural and paranoid republicans. With trump saying to vote early that is what they are doing and have likely already if not soon hit there limit. While there are still alot of voters in the cities. It's just a question of will those people get out and vote for kamala
But it's influencing every other odds market through arbitrage. Hence why Harris is insanely far odds on Paddy Power when in reality she's the favourite.
*Revelation 3:20* Behold, I stand at the door, and knock: if any man hear my voice, and open the door, I will come in to him, and will sup with him, and he with me. HEY THERE 🤗 JESUS IS CALLING YOU TODAY. Turn away from your sins, confess, forsake them and live the victorious life. God bless. Revelation 22:12-14 And, behold, I come quickly; and my reward is with me, to give every man according as his work shall be. I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last. Blessed are they that do his commandments, that they may have right to the tree of life, and may enter in through the gates into the city.
@@ElysiumCreator kalshi has trump at 55 to 45, and polymarket has trump at 58 to 42. Trump has been a favourite for a while now, but it has levelled out as we approach election day
@@ElysiumCreator basically poly market dropped trump 9 points in 2 days likely because early vote just looks terrible for him. 55% of the voting has been women and in last election about 54-57% of women across the swing states voted for biden. It is expected to shift more blue since roe v wade was overturned.
If you believe that the market significantly deviates from reality, you can make a fair bit of money. As of now, Nate Silver has it 55-45 in favor of Trump and Polymarket is 58-42 in Trump’s favor. It doesn’t seem that it is decoupled from reality.
Anecdotally, i beleive historically they've been pretty accurate. Buuuuut when you're talking crypto bros on these sites... idk man, seems pretty biased based off the crypto bros I know.
@@sportsfreak33393 Yhe betting markets had Hillary winning by 91% in some of those betting markets. The markets this time around have large movers dumping sums so large that it is skewing averages.
@@grdfhrghrggrtwqqu project 2025 was drafted by a well known far right think tank. It has nothing to do with Donald Trump or his campaign.Nor does it have a significant number of supporters.
True enough, but it's fair to assume that those registered x will be much more likely to vote x. It can be a good measure of how well the parties are getting their natural supporters to actually get out and vote.
@pizzacalzone6456 no, but it has happened, for example nearly a 1/4 of Democrats in 1984 voted for Reagan. It wouldn't need to be a high percentage of Republicans to vote for Harris to make the difference
I read Trump winning would be bad for Malaysian economy as he will be increasing tariffs. So as much as I love to sit back and relax, the US election is going to affect everyone, including us in Malaysia.
@@thesenate1844 Well considering that system only lasted about 10 years before they Amended the Constitution, I can't imagine why it didn't work out that great. It was basically the second true amendment to the Constitution considering that the first 10 were all put in while the thing was still being ratified to get people on board.
You could say the same about Kamala as she is a complete moron. Trump is a ridiculous choice but the fact that the dems chose Kamala as the individual to battle with trump is the reason why this is such a close election, there are so many more suitable candidates but their strategy is literally “orange man is bad”. This should be a lesson for the following elections to pick the most coherent candidates
America is always going to be Europe's defensive partner, red or blue. America just wants Europe to also have a backbone in the nation's where it would count the most rather than wasting americas resources with over reliance for their own security.
America is in the midst of a political realignment too. Aside from the differing circumstances compared 2020, there is enough movement in voting to throw off our traditional notions of who votes, at what rate, and for whom. That is to say we genuinely don't know. The polling has kinda been all over the place as they try to account for so many different things which are only educated guess, but guesses nonetheless without the hard results to justify them yet. Or worse trying to keep their clients happy. The betting markets, while being indicative, can look more like sports betting where it goes off of vibes. And the increased gender divide is starring to serve more as a proxy for who is doing better.
Underrated comment------------------ There are less pollsters today than in 2016 or 2020, and most weight their polls with a Conservative bias due to how infrequent Republican/Conservative voters respond to pollsters, not to mention the general inaccuracy of using weights for statistical analysis. The polls have a margin of error between 4-5 points, meaning they could be wrong while claiming they were always right. And the key will be demographic makeup-not just a who's who-but an agreeable way with how people identify themselves in 2024, since I see this idea of the 18-29 minority black/brown/asian male, who's non-college educated, who's voting for Trump.
The polling is all over the place because the traditional demographics enclaves for each party have shifted. Who would have ever thought that we would see a Teamsters leader speaking at a GOP convention? Or that the traditionally pro-military Republicans would villainize generals? Instead of white collar vs blue collar + minorities, it's increasingly a highly educated women vs under-educated men contest.
And trying to account for demographics and whatnot isn't a good idea since there has been small gains for Trump among minorities and also young white men are increasingly skewing Conservative while women are even more liberal now. There have been pretty big political changes among people since Covid too. Covid made some people super crazy (hence why RFK had some small support). Probably why the betting markets are super Trump, since well sports betting and now betting in general is very male dominated and Trump obviously is doing well among males.
Not necessarily. There's money on the line and serious betters often gather information to make informed decisions. Again serious betters, but also doesn't mean it'll turn out that way.
*Revelation 3:20* Behold, I stand at the door, and knock: if any man hear my voice, and open the door, I will come in to him, and will sup with him, and he with me. HEY THERE 🤗 JESUS IS CALLING YOU TODAY. Turn away from your sins, confess, forsake them and live the victorious life. God bless. Revelation 22:12-14 And, behold, I come quickly; and my reward is with me, to give every man according as his work shall be. I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last. Blessed are they that do his commandments, that they may have right to the tree of life, and may enter in through the gates into the city.
@@caseclosed9342 Interesting how every single Klanner that has spoken has supported Trump, then. The Grand Wizard David Duke is an open advocate for Trump.
The way Predictit makes money makes its market more inefficient. It isn’t profitable to arbitrage the disparity, essentially, and the prediction market isn’t large enough smooth small (sub 5%) differences.
It's called the house edge. If the odds always added up to exactly 100%, as they do in reality, then the bookies would give out as much money as they take in, and would never be able to pay for their costs or generate profits. If it wasn't a minus sum game, there wouldn't be anyone to take bets, and the betting industry wouldn't exist.
*Revelation 3:20* Behold, I stand at the door, and knock: if any man hear my voice, and open the door, I will come in to him, and will sup with him, and he with me. HEY THERE 🤗 JESUS IS CALLING YOU TODAY. Turn away from your sins, confess, forsake them and live the victorious life. God bless. Revelation 22:12-14 And, behold, I come quickly; and my reward is with me, to give every man according as his work shall be. I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last. Blessed are they that do his commandments, that they may have right to the tree of life, and may enter in through the gates into the city.
I think that even mentioning the betting markets is somewhat disingenuous, as there have clear and public efforts by Trump supporters to sway them, in order to make is seem like Trump is the obvious favorite to win. You need only look at the time that elon tweeted about polymarket, which led to a huge surge in the odds of Trump winning in the betting markets. I'm really big tldr fan, but I do think that having the betting markets on the same level of importance as poll agregators, and prediction models is just bad journalism.
@@Batmans_Pet_Goldfish Historically sure enough, but the polarization translates in unusual terms into a bias that leans towards a bit of an echo chamber, particularly among those centered in money investing... so cryptobros. I just wouldn't rely on any source too much, and I think even the polling companies are trying to avoid misstepping really hard too.
Sundowning is a set of symptoms that can occur in people with Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia that includes confusion, agitation, anxiety, and irritability in the late afternoon and evening
Kamala will win. I voted Kamala but my friends were voting Trump. They believed that Kamala is anti-catholic and will make the economy worst the next eight years. They worked in a restaurant that went bankrupt this year blaming the illegal immigrants looting their restaurant. Just vote.
@@aaronlucko6952 Yes and no. If the upper midwest trio of states (PA, MI, and WI) are swept by either candidate then it is unimportant. If there is a split, Nevada becomes VERY important
@@blisseyran-dom6822 Unlikely. Nevada is always a pipe dream for Republicans. The polls consistently overestimate their support. They have done so since 2008. They always get close but never secure the victory. It is the same with the Democrats in North Carolina.
Well done for including the conventional markets this time. Fair analysis of the information we have, and the fact that neither outcome would be a surprise.
I wish people would stop misusing the word "Landslide". A landslide is where someone wins by a huge margin, like Thatcher in 83, or labour in 45, 97 & 24. Reagan, Nixon, Johnson, FDR, (arguably Eisenhower and Harding) Wilson: these won by landslides, Others, like Obama, Clinton, Carter, won comfortably, or maintained the majority of their predecessors (Like Bush, Truman, Hoover or Coolidge) which, even more technically doesn't count as a landslide either. Nobody has massively changed the electoral map since the 80s or early 90s ...
I think the formal definition of a landslide in the US is "winning more than 350 electoral votes", which, uf we take the safe states as they are, is impossible for the swing states to achieve.
It’s worth mentioning that there could be legal battles about late-arriving ballots, as the Fifth Circuit has ruled that all ballots must be received (not just postmarked) by the time in-person voting closes. I think the chance SCOTUS has to look at this is high (especially if other appellate courts disagree).
How come you never critisize trump answer its because you see him as a messiah a god and have sexual feelings for him whats with your sexual feelings towards him he CAN do wrong
@@bigmattshort also i predicted the election result.Ive predicted trump winning with 282 electoral votes compared with kamalas 256 electoral votes. I'm a democrat btw
@adamredrup The entire emphasis here is on polls and betting markets instead of factors indicating turnout and ways to interpret early turnout, which at this point is noteworthy. That is clueless, and the channel should stick to analyzing countries like Bulgaria and Slovakia, which are after all more open to logical interpretation than my own. 😆
Not necessarily this time around though. They bake in the errors from prior periods to counter. Add to that, more republicans are going for Kamala than democrats going for Trump. MAGA did a horrible self sabotage of RINOs. It’s going to be very close.
@@WinterXR7 the US hasn't formally declared war since WW2, and considering trump is Putin's little bch boy, it's not like it's going to be peaceful, and trump has said that Israel should "finish the job" -_-
@@kyzantia8884I’m tired of the hate. Tired of the lies, the insurrections against democracy, the insults against the American people, the failed ventures of an orange, the lack of empathy, and the dementia to top it all off. But here we are, saying an experienced prosecutor who has said she’ll respect and unite the American people is going to do the very opposite. I have done so much bipartisan research, and there is a very clear contrast of who will preserve the promise of America versus one who will tarnish and likely tear it apart. Anyone who supports Trump these days has become extremely disillusioned with what they appreciate in their lives, fueled by disdain and fear instead of unity and community cooperation. Because the Republican party has been hijacked by MAGA, by creepy greedy billionairres, by corporations, by insecure white men who think they are important enough to elude the rights of all other Americans. “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” - George Orwell, 1984.
@@kyzantia8884 wrong. Stop spreading misinformation. He never said Trump would win popular vote. This is what is wrong with you all Republicans. When truth Don't go on yall way,yall start lying and spreading. misinformation.
@@ok-vk9fv wrong. He never Said Trump would win popular vote. Stop spreading misinformation. Why are Republicans like this. When they dont like something they straight up start lying about it😑
As a middle of the road, slight right American, I tell all my friends and family the same thing. Regardless of who wins, the sun will rise the next day, and everything will be OK. What happens at your house is more important that what happens in the White House.
Yeah let's all have a good laugh at the yanks again. In the UK we may have voted to destroy the country with Brexit and 13 years of Tory rule and we may have pushed Chamberlain into 5th place as the nation's worst ever PM but at least none of ours is as funny as Trump
As you pointed out, 2016 and 2020 polls correctly predicted the popular vote going to Democrats but both underestimated Trump. Considering how close the polls are and how much Trump improved his early voting numbers (+10% compared to 2020) he's got his best numbers he's ever had in an election. Some forecasts also suggest that whoever wins, would win by taking ALL the swing states, which could very well mean that a Trump landslide is ahead and that, for the first time ever, he actually wins the popular vote too.
in the history of the usa never was one party underestimated by the polls 3 times in a row the methods of the polls are always changing and every time after one side was underestimated 2 times they over corrected for the next election with a female to male vote split of 55% to 45% and females voting 19% more democrat I would expect this trend to continue
Honestly the polls clearly are in favor of Trump but I cannot understand these arguments about early voting. Till last election the clear political message from Trump was that early voting was a scam to avoid, now it is vote as fast as you can. Obviously his early voting results will improve a lot under these assumptions, but you cannot infer anything from it
Its actually an insteresting question because on one hand college graduates and asians vote for democrats but on the other hand all other minorities also vote for democrats. This being the case I would bet its about even overall Actually it seems I underestimated the minorities factor and Republicans in general have about 2-5 points lead, interesting
So much inaccuracies in this video. First of all, if there was a tight electoral map in the year of 2020 it would’ve went to the Democrats because they held majority the House of Representatives. Second of all, since when do elections run based off of betting markets gosh what an idiot
There are a lot of polls, some showing Harris up slightly, some showing Trump up slightly . I'm curious why this particular poll showing Harris leading was chosen as THE poll?
Edit: for context I’m a 28 yr old white male in Ohio who voted D down the ticket in 2020. Here is my experience and perspective: I was pumped for Kamala around the DNC and literally everything her campaign did after that was like “🤦♂️ oh no”. My good buddy is mixed, voted Biden in 2020 and is a major hippie, he voted Trump. My artsy friends in the music scene who date non-binary people and support Palestine, they seem to be voting Trump. I was gonna vote Kamala until I saw the “don’t get popped” ads Kamala put out to reach young men. The fact that the only way her campaign could speak to young men was by saying “vote dem, or girls won’t date you” I find truly offensive. If she can’t run a campaign (with the world giving her the benefit of the doubt) how can she run a country. I am (kinda sadly) voting Trump. My coworker has voted Jill stein in every election since 2000 and he’s voting Trump. Everyone I ask responds with a sheepish “….i think I’ve gotta vote Trump”. After this election there is going to be a real big shuffle with demographics, if the democrats pay attention and listen it could be a huge opportunity for them to build a diverse and unstoppable coalition….they probably won’t though. I’m so mad this matters in 2024, but: KAMALA SHOULD HAVE GONE ON ROGAN!!! She was a lawyer, she could kill it, and humanize herself. Kamala has run a terrible campaign. She was thrust into extraordinary circumstances that I couldn’t imagine, but she kinda beefed it. The more Dems try and invalidate new media the fewer places they’ll have to spread their message, and it will slowly make “right wing” ideas seem more and more popular by comparison.
Inflation is below 2%, and our GDP is outperforming other G7 countries, jumping 3% just in the fourth quarter. The stock market is hitting all-time highs, and we’ve got chip manufacturing plants popping up across the country, thats high value add manufacturing. That’s all to say, whoever inherits the country is going to be in an insanely good position and also I really hope Biden gets recognized for everything he done. Remember at this point they said that we would be in a recession!
In a few decades I'm sure Biden's economy will be appreciated. Now way too many people think Trump had a great economy (which he inherited from Obama and somehow ruined 😂)
@@bertilcoolson3922That’s the Republicans cycle. Win the election, claim that the Democrats job on the economy was all their work. Messes up the economy and loses the election. Blames Democrats for messing up the economy. The Democrats win, fix the economy, and the cycle continues.
Inflation is 2.4%. Despite all these statistics, the cost of living is still too high like with gas, groceries and materials. Housing prices are too high in which Kamala's plan to give people $25k when they put a down payment on a house will actually increase house prices by $25k so her plan doesn't help anyone except the people that receive the money from selling the house.
i swear people have always undermined biden's pretty competent presidency. it saddens me because i'd say his presidency is top ~20, reminder that he was sworn into presidency during a horrible period that was caused by trump's poor handling of covid-19
@@anthonycooke2401 yep they will make house pricing go up more then the hand out amount, we did it here in aus and study after study shows all it did was increase house prices.
How? If 70% of a state is guaranteed to go towards one candidate then neither candidate will try and win more voters there. The most contested states will always be the most important electoral college or not.
@@dodoman502 yeah and now the large states where most people live, and the people who most contribute to the economy have much less 'voice' than some rural uneducated hillbilly living on subsidies
Looking at all the polls, bookies, early vote totals, state-level trends, turnout demographics and enthusiasm; I don't think Kamala has much chance of winning this election. Trump should win every swing state by a margin between 0.5 (Michigan, Pennsylvania) and 5 (Georgia, Arizona) in my estimation, and challenge Kamala closely for Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Minnesota. I think Harris will just about hold all of those, but it'll be tight. I estimate a minimum win for Trump of 312 EC votes.
comparing a midterm to a general presidential election is a rookie mistake. presidential elections are a different beast and trump is a turnout machine. He does extremely well with low propensity voters which is how he overperforms polls. I think he takes the victory on tuesday
Not really though, why would half the country vote for a lunatic? Either you are wrong or 70-100 million Americans are wrong. I am pretty sure this is a you thing.
@@zjeee Yes, half the country would vote for a lunatic. Maybe you're not old enough to remember the 2000 election, where one candidate was, agree or disagree on policy, a civilized adult, and the other was a drunken wannabe cowboy. Owning the libs>picking a rational candidate who will improve things. That's why we're at where we're at. GOP tanked the economy in 2008, and we never fully recovered. GOP got us in illlegal wars that Biden got us out of.
Constant exposure to pro republican media owned by billionaires who hate the American people, and all humanity in general. They just love subsidies, gov contacts and tax cuts.
Very close and Republicans are very likely going to wait until election day. Maybe I'm just coping or don't like how so many polls come back with Trump being the favorite to win even by a hair, but I hope some pollsters are getting fired after this similar to 2016. Even if the president we don't want get in I kind of just want this to be over and just make fun of who ever wins and hope Congress reigns in their odder policy.
A lot of sheep in the comments are shocked that Trump is going to win as they have been eating up MSM lies... Even the tea lovers from across the pond 😂
Trumps betting odds are mostly astroturfed however, Elon Musk and a ton of cryptobros on Twitter started betting on Trump like crazy with huge amounts of money. And the odds started changing for Trump once they started betting. What we’re seeing now is neither a last minute surge for Harris or collapse of Trump - its simply the market adjusting itself and people with actual analytic knowledge understanding that it’s a 50/50 race and taking advantage of the bad odds for Harris to increase their potential revenue.
@@snowmonkey1 Mussolini (the inventor of fascism) ran away from the socialist party and was the strongest defender of corporatism (a not-exactly-leftist socioeconomic system), Franco was fervently conservative and religious, and Hitler opposed the revolutionary faction to the point of killing their leaders in the Night of the Long Knives, so... not to a good start with that argument
@@snowmonkey1 What? :/ Benito Mussolini wasn't considered left at all. They were actively considering communists their worst enemies, and it has been going like that for decades later, here in Italy. We INVENTED fascism, we know what we're talking about. There was a "left-ish" movement ahead of Mussolini on that side, but it faded pretty quickly into hard right. Anyway, that doesn't matter. The world is an atom of evil and you're just one of the many electrons around it.
Love that the fate of the world lies in the hands of a couple thousand people in Pennsylvania
The west is not the world hahaha.
@@santiagopayan2531 Without help of the US Ukraine is doomed and peace in Europe is doomed. Which means we are getting closer to WW3.
Yeah but the entire world is affected from the president @santiagopayan2531
Not really, both candidates wont do significant change.
The west lol. If Trump wins don’t worry Saudi Russia uae Qatar North Korea and Syria will celebrate lol.
Ahhh let's enjoy a completely peaceful comment section.
Honestly, how dare you. Your comment is clearly a fascist and/or communist dog-whistle. Shame, shame on you! [sarcasm] ;)
@@roscaris6541 No YOU'RE facist and/or communist for suggesting something so outrageous.
Project 2025 will institute fascism on day 1 btw.
@@grdfhrghrggrtwqqu Stop ruining the mood
Sorry but u want to be able to afford gas and groceries and not have wages destroyed by Inflation
here’s how bernie can still win
Bernie would have won
Damn I wish
they went from manipulating the primaries vs bernie to outright not having them lmao
If they had a proper primary he could. He can pull working-class whites from Trump
You say this as a joke,
But as an ohioan this has a whole other meaning.
As a non American
Good luck America
Vote wisely
You don’t even know what they’re voting for
Not sure where you are, (I'm guessing the Balkans?). In any case, I wish you a wonderful day too.
Trump Because of economy
@@Aadarsh-vw6ez if you think trump will improve the economy then you need to learn basic economics
As an American I actually have a good deal of fear about how this election will play out.
IT SHOULDN’T EVEN BE CLOSE. WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE?
Thank the electoral college, people blaming the inflation on biden instead of the pandemic, Trump appeasing to young white voters, and him almost being assassinated twice.
I know, Kamala is awful
@@danunpronounceable8559Yeah it's kinda fun how the original comment could mean either one😂
The American experience hey 😂@@TheAlternative_27
Right? Trump 2024 ❤He needs to (and will) win.
"NOOOOOOOOOOO I WAS TALKING ABOUT KUMALA NOOOOOOOOOOOO" Cope and seethe.
I'm old enough to remember when appealing to the very worst of human nature was seen as a bad thing. Ah well, nice civilization we had for a while.
Nah, today if someone takes away your fundamental rights they are actually a great politician. I would like to believe Trump's gonna lose by a big margin, but America's an odd place.
@@dinmavric5504 What fundamental rights has he taken away? Our rights are fine lmao.
@@waltercommunitycollege1615 oh idk, right to abortion? right to proper healthcare? right to a fair judicial system? right to free speech? He has turned this country upside down and turned good hearted Americans aginst each other by spurring on hatred and division, everything the USA should not be about.
Your rights are about to be taken away by the democrats.
@@waltercommunitycollege1615muh free speech
Evaluating polymarket is black magic! It's totally decoupled from the election!
It really seems like it has levelled out right now though, expected as we approach election day. 58% for trump seems accurate
There is a logic to the Nevada issue. It's that Nevada, Arizona and Georgia broke hard for trump this time because they are mainly white rural and paranoid republicans. With trump saying to vote early that is what they are doing and have likely already if not soon hit there limit. While there are still alot of voters in the cities. It's just a question of will those people get out and vote for kamala
@@BuIldogProdwhy do you think 58% for trump is accurate? Based on what?
@@frankkobold reality
But it's influencing every other odds market through arbitrage. Hence why Harris is insanely far odds on Paddy Power when in reality she's the favourite.
Just get this over with so i can start to mentally adapt to whatever sorry state the world will be in!
The world wont change in any major way, the US doesn’t control the world like you think it doss
Real🗣️
Only one talking sense
*Revelation 3:20*
Behold, I stand at the door, and knock: if any man hear my voice, and open the door, I will come in to him, and will sup with him, and he with me.
HEY THERE 🤗 JESUS IS CALLING YOU TODAY. Turn away from your sins, confess, forsake them and live the victorious life. God bless.
Revelation 22:12-14
And, behold, I come quickly; and my reward is with me, to give every man according as his work shall be.
I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last.
Blessed are they that do his commandments, that they may have right to the tree of life, and may enter in through the gates into the city.
If Trump wins, it'll be Harris's job, as the sitting VP and thus president of the senate, to certify his victory. What a kick in the guts that'll be!
She should call Al Gore in that event as he's been there done that
at least she won't claim foul play and incite an insurrection
@@cicolas_nage We'll see.
@@hughjass1044no it’s pretty fucking obvious she won’t because she isn’t a megalomaniac
@@cicolas_nageshe should.
If dems lose they should follow the Trump playbook and give them the taste of their own medicine.
The betting markets have changed dramatically since this video was recorded.
How so? What way have they changed. I don’t tend to look at them
@@ElysiumCreator kalshi has trump at 55 to 45, and polymarket has trump at 58 to 42. Trump has been a favourite for a while now, but it has levelled out as we approach election day
@ Cheers
Smh knew I shouldve bought the dip
@@ElysiumCreator basically poly market dropped trump 9 points in 2 days likely because early vote just looks terrible for him. 55% of the voting has been women and in last election about 54-57% of women across the swing states voted for biden. It is expected to shift more blue since roe v wade was overturned.
Polymarket (and betting in general) is extremely astroturfed, I can't believe so many people are giving it credit at all
Theres a theory that Republicans are inflating Trumps polling so they can claim fraud if they lose
If you believe that the market significantly deviates from reality, you can make a fair bit of money.
As of now, Nate Silver has it 55-45 in favor of Trump and Polymarket is 58-42 in Trump’s favor. It doesn’t seem that it is decoupled from reality.
Polymarket is where you put your money where your mouth is. It's much more reliable than other polls.
Help us brother. My neighbor is MAGATs and my mistress husband is a lunatic 😮
then people will bet on Harris, if they think she's gonna win; which will improve her odds. That's how the free market works
I can’t believe you guys would vote for the candidate I would not vote for! How is this possible?!
So true
Why are we asking betting sites who will win? They're literally gamblers who thrive off of bad odds.
Anecdotally, i beleive historically they've been pretty accurate.
Buuuuut when you're talking crypto bros on these sites... idk man, seems pretty biased based off the crypto bros I know.
They’re not even Americans for the most part.
It’s like taking a poll about who will win the next UK election from China, Zaire, and the Netherlands
because betting sites are even more accurate than polls at determining the winners
@@sportsfreak33393 Yhe betting markets had Hillary winning by 91% in some of those betting markets. The markets this time around have large movers dumping sums so large that it is skewing averages.
No it's not! It's called EVERY election correctly since the late 1970s. EXCEPT 2016
People seem to not be realising that RFT Jr. Elon Musk and Tulsi Gabbard are now on the same ballot
all 3 are politically inept populist grifters who the trump campaign and future administration would be better off without
European bros: " _We didnt start the fire_ "
it was always burning 🔥
How trustworthy are these polls?
But what I do know, is that Trump has, since 2017, been underestimated without a break.
@@willemvandeursen3105 the video doesn’t even mention the main poll aggregator (real clear politics) who has Trump up in the polls.
Since the 2022 election (non presidential year) they have been quite accurate
@@rodrigomoura171All non presidential polls are quite accurate simply because it isnt Trump.
@@rodrigomoura171 except they arent. the polling aggregator's have been flooded with gop commissioned polls which cant be trusted.
Polls generally consist of 1000 people and usually its harder to estimate the real value of the conservative voters they struggle to reach.
LMAO, this is crazy. I have been seeing so many "I can't believe this election is so close" comments on liberal and conservative youtube videos.
Project 2025, look it up.
@@grdfhrghrggrtwqquYou oppose the rise of fascism, I see it as inevitable. Might as well join the fascists early and make bank!
@@grdfhrghrggrtwqqu yeah the amount of fake news about how Project 2025 has anything to do with Trump is wild
@@grdfhrghrggrtwqquI read it, biggest nothing burger ever
@@grdfhrghrggrtwqqu project 2025 was drafted by a well known far right think tank. It has nothing to do with Donald Trump or his campaign.Nor does it have a significant number of supporters.
As a Pole I am really honored that you take such a great value in our opinion. Thank you
Early voting only shows which party the voter is registered to, the votes could be for anyone they will not be counted until election day
Tbh, thats a really good point, but all it does is add further uncertainty.
True enough, but it's fair to assume that those registered x will be much more likely to vote x. It can be a good measure of how well the parties are getting their natural supporters to actually get out and vote.
@@roscaris6541I think there's a good chance many Republicans will vote for Harris bc they don't want Trump
Is it common for Americans to vote for a candidate of the party they're not registered with?
@pizzacalzone6456 no, but it has happened, for example nearly a 1/4 of Democrats in 1984 voted for Reagan.
It wouldn't need to be a high percentage of Republicans to vote for Harris to make the difference
I ain't American. Just going to grab a popcorn and watch as everything unfolds over there across the ocean from Malaysia lol.
I'm sorry to tell you, but this election will have global implications and Trump won't be to your benefit.
Fellow Malaysian! Let’s go!
@@dabest8777 Greetings fellow Malaysian haha
real, like whats there for our politics today? uhh seems like all the fun had kinda run out
I read Trump winning would be bad for Malaysian economy as he will be increasing tariffs. So as much as I love to sit back and relax, the US election is going to affect everyone, including us in Malaysia.
Trump/Harris 2024 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Why not go back to the old system, where the runner up becomes Vice President?
Go!
@@thesenate1844 Well considering that system only lasted about 10 years before they Amended the Constitution, I can't imagine why it didn't work out that great. It was basically the second true amendment to the Constitution considering that the first 10 were all put in while the thing was still being ratified to get people on board.
I’m an undecided voter because I LOVE both candidates equally, it’s like picking your favorite child.
LMAO I LOVE YOU@@Fluxwux
your stressing me the fuck out!
The fact that Trump is anywhere close to being re-elected does not speak well about nearly half of the US voters IMO.
You should mind your own business and let them do what they wish to.
Probably because he puts America first, might be difficult for non-Americans to comprehend why Americans want this.
@@championsever9797 are you saying people shouldn’t share their opinions? Sound like a trump voter. Only wants to hear their own voice.
Because European voters are soooo smart when they vote in the same globalist bureaucrats every election cycle - give me a break you beta
You could say the same about Kamala as she is a complete moron. Trump is a ridiculous choice but the fact that the dems chose Kamala as the individual to battle with trump is the reason why this is such a close election, there are so many more suitable candidates but their strategy is literally “orange man is bad”.
This should be a lesson for the following elections to pick the most coherent candidates
Betting markets are the worst way to determine a favorite
This is like 2012 elections where everyone said Romney is winning
Or 2016
@@eddyland1557exactly. and clinton lost😂
Who said Romney would win in 2012 other than himself?!😂 he was obviously going to lose before it even began
@FeZe1997 so that means this time Trump will lose because everyone thinks it's almost certain that he will win
Mate, trump is winning in Nevada and he will probably win the sunbelt. He just had to flip one of the blue wall states.
Trump 2024
i dont wanna speak russian, americans get your shit together ffs
Unfortunately countries in Europe like Germany are also to blame for taking months to reach their 2% in NATO.
Get ready to speak Russian because we can't seem to get our ducks in a row.
What you on about
We are tryingggggggg
America is always going to be Europe's defensive partner, red or blue. America just wants Europe to also have a backbone in the nation's where it would count the most rather than wasting americas resources with over reliance for their own security.
America is in the midst of a political realignment too. Aside from the differing circumstances compared 2020, there is enough movement in voting to throw off our traditional notions of who votes, at what rate, and for whom. That is to say we genuinely don't know.
The polling has kinda been all over the place as they try to account for so many different things which are only educated guess, but guesses nonetheless without the hard results to justify them yet. Or worse trying to keep their clients happy. The betting markets, while being indicative, can look more like sports betting where it goes off of vibes. And the increased gender divide is starring to serve more as a proxy for who is doing better.
Underrated comment------------------
There are less pollsters today than in 2016 or 2020, and most weight their polls with a Conservative bias due to how infrequent Republican/Conservative voters respond to pollsters, not to mention the general inaccuracy of using weights for statistical analysis. The polls have a margin of error between 4-5 points, meaning they could be wrong while claiming they were always right.
And the key will be demographic makeup-not just a who's who-but an agreeable way with how people identify themselves in 2024, since I see this idea of the 18-29 minority black/brown/asian male, who's non-college educated, who's voting for Trump.
The polling is all over the place because the traditional demographics enclaves for each party have shifted. Who would have ever thought that we would see a Teamsters leader speaking at a GOP convention? Or that the traditionally pro-military Republicans would villainize generals? Instead of white collar vs blue collar + minorities, it's increasingly a highly educated women vs under-educated men contest.
And trying to account for demographics and whatnot isn't a good idea since there has been small gains for Trump among minorities and also young white men are increasingly skewing Conservative while women are even more liberal now. There have been pretty big political changes among people since Covid too. Covid made some people super crazy (hence why RFK had some small support).
Probably why the betting markets are super Trump, since well sports betting and now betting in general is very male dominated and Trump obviously is doing well among males.
Betting markets don't mean shit,
Generally only men bet, and men are voting more for Trump
Not necessarily. There's money on the line and serious betters often gather information to make informed decisions.
Again serious betters, but also doesn't mean it'll turn out that way.
"Serious betters" play on the stock market. Most people that bet are men and most people bet for fun.
@@PhthaloJohnson That depends. These people probably don't bet for fun. Otherwise you can bet horses, poker or go to casinos.
Damn those pesky men 😂
@@trilight3597 you literally can bet horses and all sorts of sports on Bet365....
Politics aside is is funny watching people struggling to predict the future.
*Revelation 3:20*
Behold, I stand at the door, and knock: if any man hear my voice, and open the door, I will come in to him, and will sup with him, and he with me.
HEY THERE 🤗 JESUS IS CALLING YOU TODAY. Turn away from your sins, confess, forsake them and live the victorious life. God bless.
Revelation 22:12-14
And, behold, I come quickly; and my reward is with me, to give every man according as his work shall be.
I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last.
Blessed are they that do his commandments, that they may have right to the tree of life, and may enter in through the gates into the city.
Stop using a crypto betting site for these videos.
This is like going to a Klan rally and using their opinion to know who's gonna win...
The Klan would say the Democratic Party
@@caseclosed9342 Interesting how every single Klanner that has spoken has supported Trump, then. The Grand Wizard David Duke is an open advocate for Trump.
@@caseclosed9342 Okay I didn't even know this was an argument. No, they would f*cking not.
@@caseclosed9342
David Duke actually supports Trump, very publicly
How can the odds of Predictit be 54% to 49%?
I don't know, but predictions has never predicted a us presidential election. They got the last two wrong.
The way Predictit makes money makes its market more inefficient. It isn’t profitable to arbitrage the disparity, essentially, and the prediction market isn’t large enough smooth small (sub 5%) differences.
Thank you! I noticed the same thing. 103 total odds?
It's called the house edge. If the odds always added up to exactly 100%, as they do in reality, then the bookies would give out as much money as they take in, and would never be able to pay for their costs or generate profits. If it wasn't a minus sum game, there wouldn't be anyone to take bets, and the betting industry wouldn't exist.
*Revelation 3:20*
Behold, I stand at the door, and knock: if any man hear my voice, and open the door, I will come in to him, and will sup with him, and he with me.
HEY THERE 🤗 JESUS IS CALLING YOU TODAY. Turn away from your sins, confess, forsake them and live the victorious life. God bless.
Revelation 22:12-14
And, behold, I come quickly; and my reward is with me, to give every man according as his work shall be.
I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last.
Blessed are they that do his commandments, that they may have right to the tree of life, and may enter in through the gates into the city.
Bookies are not calculating the odds themselves. It's the people who do it. Wherever they put the money it swings to that side.
If someone told me this would be a question against a trump opponent after 2020! If f! Wouldn’t believe it, this is just crazy!!!
Voting on Tuesday, Cannot Wait!
Who are you going to vote for?
@@Tomasalba-c6s ur mom
I think that even mentioning the betting markets is somewhat disingenuous, as there have clear and public efforts by Trump supporters to sway them, in order to make is seem like Trump is the obvious favorite to win. You need only look at the time that elon tweeted about polymarket, which led to a huge surge in the odds of Trump winning in the betting markets. I'm really big tldr fan, but I do think that having the betting markets on the same level of importance as poll agregators, and prediction models is just bad journalism.
No its just fraking dumb to mention the betting markets
Historically, poll accuracy is 78% and betting accuracy has been 77%. In other words, they tend to be about as accurate as each other.
@@Batmans_Pet_Goldfish Historically sure enough, but the polarization translates in unusual terms into a bias that leans towards a bit of an echo chamber, particularly among those centered in money investing... so cryptobros.
I just wouldn't rely on any source too much, and I think even the polling companies are trying to avoid misstepping really hard too.
Let’s enjoy the peace in comments while it lasts
Sundowning is a set of symptoms that can occur in people with Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia that includes confusion, agitation, anxiety, and irritability in the late afternoon and evening
Preach
We know we’ve seen that with Biden for 4 years
Bro, you are late to the party. Biden already dropped out. Kamala is the new one for the Democrats.
@@thomaschristiansen5133dropped out lol
Kamala will win. I voted Kamala but my friends were voting Trump. They believed that Kamala is anti-catholic and will make the economy worst the next eight years. They worked in a restaurant that went bankrupt this year blaming the illegal immigrants looting their restaurant. Just vote.
on both of you guys defense, i dont think any candidate cares about American fiscal health
Your friend are right and you are stupid
So your friends were right.
T. Immigrant
Thanks for your taxes LOL
The decision comes down to a few swing states, so most likely your vote is not going to push her over the top.
Anyone claiming to know confidently that Harris or Trump will win is full of it. This election is basically as close as it gets.
God it'd be funny to have a repeate of all the "HERE'S HOW HILLARY CAN STILL WIN" from 2016
I think Harris will lose Nevada even if she wins the presidency.
Nevada is literally the least important swing state.
@aaronlucko6952 I know. And given recent polls, I think she'll lose it regardless of if she wins.
@@aaronlucko6952 Yes and no. If the upper midwest trio of states (PA, MI, and WI) are swept by either candidate then it is unimportant. If there is a split, Nevada becomes VERY important
@@blisseyran-dom6822 Unlikely. Nevada is always a pipe dream for Republicans. The polls consistently overestimate their support. They have done so since 2008. They always get close but never secure the victory. It is the same with the Democrats in North Carolina.
I think Trump with win Pennsylvania which should probably seal the deal... I just don't see Harris winning
Video Title: "Why Trump is the Slight Favourite Heading into the Election"... Thumbnail: *Kamala Happy*💀The Thumbnail and Title do not match at all. 🤣
Well done for including the conventional markets this time. Fair analysis of the information we have, and the fact that neither outcome would be a surprise.
I wish people would stop misusing the word "Landslide".
A landslide is where someone wins by a huge margin, like Thatcher in 83, or labour in 45, 97 & 24.
Reagan, Nixon, Johnson, FDR, (arguably Eisenhower and Harding) Wilson: these won by landslides,
Others, like Obama, Clinton, Carter, won comfortably,
or maintained the majority of their predecessors (Like Bush, Truman, Hoover or Coolidge)
which, even more technically doesn't count as a landslide either.
Nobody has massively changed the electoral map since the 80s or early 90s ...
I think the formal definition of a landslide in the US is "winning more than 350 electoral votes", which, uf we take the safe states as they are, is impossible for the swing states to achieve.
It’s worth mentioning that there could be legal battles about late-arriving ballots, as the Fifth Circuit has ruled that all ballots must be received (not just postmarked) by the time in-person voting closes. I think the chance SCOTUS has to look at this is high (especially if other appellate courts disagree).
Tbh that fact that the election is so close is insane
Its funny how this can be interpreted like that from both sides
To everyone in this chat, I just want to let you know that *Jesus loves you* and he can *save you from sin,* sadness and sickness.
@@benjaminv02 yeah that’s true, i should of specified that it’s insane how close trump is too winning
@@Dan_The_Man0-0 I think the same of Kamala hahaha. And im sure thats the reason why its so close :P
@@benjaminv02 most likely tbf i just wish people would stop being so… idk how to describe it… tribal? Ig about it if yk what i mean
Support for trump has been historically underestimated in polls
Support for Harris was underestimated in her california election
@@Magentahedgehogthat was in california though, not the entire country
How come you never critisize trump answer its because you see him as a messiah a god and have sexual feelings for him whats with your sexual feelings towards him he CAN do wrong
@@bigmattshort true
@@bigmattshort also i predicted the election result.Ive predicted trump winning with 282 electoral votes compared with kamalas 256 electoral votes.
I'm a democrat btw
Another clueless take! Early voting in Pennsylvania is skewing Dem, female, and there is a decline with voters over 65.
It's not clueless. If you take issue with them not including details about Pensylvania, that's fine. But there's no need to be insulting.
@adamredrup The entire emphasis here is on polls and betting markets instead of factors indicating turnout and ways to interpret early turnout, which at this point is noteworthy.
That is clueless, and the channel should stick to analyzing countries like Bulgaria and Slovakia, which are after all more open to logical interpretation than my own. 😆
Giving women the right to vote was a mistake
You are coping sir. Republicans have improved their share of early voting overall, which matters more
every analyst is expecting it to be balanced out by election day vote dude it's not even as good as 2020
"Hillary will be our first female president, who is this Trump guy anyway."
Season 2 Ep. 11
Keep in mind that republicans are notoriously underestimated in polling, i am pretty sure trump will win.
Not necessarily this time around though. They bake in the errors from prior periods to counter. Add to that, more republicans are going for Kamala than democrats going for Trump. MAGA did a horrible self sabotage of RINOs. It’s going to be very close.
Nope he won’t win 2022 showed that democrats are being underestimated this time around.
Vote for anti-war candidates.
So.... Kamala and Walz
@@Hiljaa_ Israel and Ukraine would like to have a word with your candidates.
trump wants war with mexico
@@Hiljaa_ Obvious rage bait, good one 🤣
@@WinterXR7 the US hasn't formally declared war since WW2, and considering trump is Putin's little bch boy, it's not like it's going to be peaceful, and trump has said that Israel should "finish the job" -_-
coming back in a few days to see if allan lichtman was right again
hes been wrong before, he also predicted trump would get the popular vote in 2016. At least after this election we can ignore him and his stupid keys.
@@kyzantia8884I’m tired of the hate. Tired of the lies, the insurrections against democracy, the insults against the American people, the failed ventures of an orange, the lack of empathy, and the dementia to top it all off. But here we are, saying an experienced prosecutor who has said she’ll respect and unite the American people is going to do the very opposite. I have done so much bipartisan research, and there is a very clear contrast of who will preserve the promise of America versus one who will tarnish and likely tear it apart. Anyone who supports Trump these days has become extremely disillusioned with what they appreciate in their lives, fueled by disdain and fear instead of unity and community cooperation.
Because the Republican party has been hijacked by MAGA, by creepy greedy billionairres, by corporations, by insecure white men who think they are important enough to elude the rights of all other Americans.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” - George Orwell, 1984.
@@kyzantia8884 wrong. Stop spreading misinformation. He never said Trump would win popular vote. This is what is wrong with you all Republicans. When truth Don't go on yall way,yall start lying and spreading. misinformation.
He only predicts the polular vote, which he predicted wrong in 2016
@@ok-vk9fv wrong. He never Said Trump would win popular vote. Stop spreading misinformation. Why are Republicans like this. When they dont like something they straight up start lying about it😑
when you said old school bookies I thought some mafia guys were gonna get quoted lol
I know and understand this channel's bias is with the Democrats, but that thumbnail is deceptive af. The trend on the graph is completely wrong.
It’s just a mirror, it’s not that deep.
It’s to demotivate republicans from voting by making them think they’re comfortably in the lead.
What? the trend is as they described it: Trump is ahead but has been decreasing since last week.
It's not bias when they other party is a racist lunatic
FAKE EU SUPPORTIVE NEWS!
Betting markets are incredibly biased, and I hate how much credence is being given to them.
Lol @ Trump dancing when the odds were named.
It shouldn't even be close if peiple have any sense. Nobody with a brain should be voting for Trump
He puts America first, Americans like that. Rest of the world does not.
Nobody with a brain is voting harris.
@@zjeee He puts, or does he say he puts? Huge difference! I hope we won't see that unfolding.
Harris is a brainless twit, that's who is brainless
@@zjeee not really. He likes wealthy americans. His tariff plans are going to screw over the middle class.
The US is becoming a lost cause
@@theprinceofawesomeness doing better than literally any other developed nation
Yea…except for that largest economy in the world, etc
Depends on what happens after the election
@@NewDealDem2187 Fair but a lot of our enemies are catching up (especially China who has already eclipsed our GDP (w/ PPP taken into account))
@@jumpy2783 China is going through a huge population decline and has a huge unemployment crisis so that’s very unlikely
As a middle of the road, slight right American, I tell all my friends and family the same thing. Regardless of who wins, the sun will rise the next day, and everything will be OK. What happens at your house is more important that what happens in the White House.
Yeah let's all have a good laugh at the yanks again. In the UK we may have voted to destroy the country with Brexit and 13 years of Tory rule and we may have pushed Chamberlain into 5th place as the nation's worst ever PM but at least none of ours is as funny as Trump
Account located in 🇮🇳
@@user-tp4jl4xt6w He literally has a video of him on his channel. He's from UK
🤣
...what about Boris?
This is the most expensive coin flip in human history
As you pointed out, 2016 and 2020 polls correctly predicted the popular vote going to Democrats but both underestimated Trump. Considering how close the polls are and how much Trump improved his early voting numbers (+10% compared to 2020) he's got his best numbers he's ever had in an election. Some forecasts also suggest that whoever wins, would win by taking ALL the swing states, which could very well mean that a Trump landslide is ahead and that, for the first time ever, he actually wins the popular vote too.
trump's not gonna win. The votes of women will make sure of that. It's gonna come down to Pennsylvania
It's possible, but still probably best to keep an open mind till the election happens.
in the history of the usa never was one party underestimated by the polls 3 times in a row
the methods of the polls are always changing and every time after one side was underestimated 2 times they over corrected for the next election
with a female to male vote split of 55% to 45% and females voting 19% more democrat I would expect this trend to continue
and then dont forgett how the 2022 midterm was predicted vs how it turned out
Honestly the polls clearly are in favor of Trump but I cannot understand these arguments about early voting. Till last election the clear political message from Trump was that early voting was a scam to avoid, now it is vote as fast as you can. Obviously his early voting results will improve a lot under these assumptions, but you cannot infer anything from it
I really hate the electoral college.
It makes my vote essentially pointless every time considering that I don't live in a swing state.
The fact that the race is this close between the two makes me wonder as to what the average IQ of trump voters is vs kamala voters.
Edit: Ohh no
probably 105 vs 95
Its actually an insteresting question because on one hand college graduates and asians vote for democrats but on the other hand all other minorities also vote for democrats. This being the case I would bet its about even overall
Actually it seems I underestimated the minorities factor and Republicans in general have about 2-5 points lead, interesting
Makes me wonder if Kamala supporters have 1% of critical thinking skills, probably not. They watch MSNBC and believe everything.
Only one group primarily went to college, a place to meet a variety of people with differing opinions and races.
@@TheFinalChapters education doesn't mean intelligence
So much inaccuracies in this video. First of all, if there was a tight electoral map in the year of 2020 it would’ve went to the Democrats because they held majority the House of Representatives. Second of all, since when do elections run based off of betting markets gosh what an idiot
Trump slight favorite + Electroral College = Trump guaranteed win.
No
There are a lot of polls, some showing Harris up slightly, some showing Trump up slightly .
I'm curious why this particular poll showing Harris leading was chosen as THE poll?
Please, America, don't throw away your democracy.
Too late they already did, America has been a two- party state for a long time.
what the hell does that even mean
What democracy, man. Grow up, it is rigged as hell.
Says the people who support Islamic radicalism like it's not an anti-democratic ideology.
@bots102 this is the thing, they should be a 3 party state, if they were it would stop this.
trump 2024
Trump is America's last hope
He is Russia's last hope and the final nail in the American coffin.
Edit: for context I’m a 28 yr old white male in Ohio who voted D down the ticket in 2020.
Here is my experience and perspective:
I was pumped for Kamala around the DNC and literally everything her campaign did after that was like “🤦♂️ oh no”. My good buddy is mixed, voted Biden in 2020 and is a major hippie, he voted Trump. My artsy friends in the music scene who date non-binary people and support Palestine, they seem to be voting Trump. I was gonna vote Kamala until I saw the “don’t get popped” ads Kamala put out to reach young men. The fact that the only way her campaign could speak to young men was by saying “vote dem, or girls won’t date you” I find truly offensive. If she can’t run a campaign (with the world giving her the benefit of the doubt) how can she run a country. I am (kinda sadly) voting Trump. My coworker has voted Jill stein in every election since 2000 and he’s voting Trump. Everyone I ask responds with a sheepish “….i think I’ve gotta vote Trump”.
After this election there is going to be a real big shuffle with demographics, if the democrats pay attention and listen it could be a huge opportunity for them to build a diverse and unstoppable coalition….they probably won’t though.
I’m so mad this matters in 2024, but: KAMALA SHOULD HAVE GONE ON ROGAN!!! She was a lawyer, she could kill it, and humanize herself. Kamala has run a terrible campaign. She was thrust into extraordinary circumstances that I couldn’t imagine, but she kinda beefed it. The more Dems try and invalidate new media the fewer places they’ll have to spread their message, and it will slowly make “right wing” ideas seem more and more popular by comparison.
You guys are underestimating 13 keys to white house
I generally prefer Democrats, but I think the west needs a strong leader right now. Trump 2024!
He's a couple dozen big macs away from the grave, not strong.
He's 82. Congrats.
@ and still better than Kamala 👁👅👁
@@lewisbaitup6352 aren’t Harris supporters meant to be woke? What is this judgmental attitude
@@furrball *78
I remember when the title said kamala and not trump
She is losing so hard that I don't believe she can win
Inflation is below 2%, and our GDP is outperforming other G7 countries, jumping 3% just in the fourth quarter. The stock market is hitting all-time highs, and we’ve got chip manufacturing plants popping up across the country, thats high value add manufacturing.
That’s all to say, whoever inherits the country is going to be in an insanely good position and also I really hope Biden gets recognized for everything he done. Remember at this point they said that we would be in a recession!
In a few decades I'm sure Biden's economy will be appreciated. Now way too many people think Trump had a great economy (which he inherited from Obama and somehow ruined 😂)
@@bertilcoolson3922That’s the Republicans cycle. Win the election, claim that the Democrats job on the economy was all their work. Messes up the economy and loses the election. Blames Democrats for messing up the economy. The Democrats win, fix the economy, and the cycle continues.
Inflation is 2.4%. Despite all these statistics, the cost of living is still too high like with gas, groceries and materials. Housing prices are too high in which Kamala's plan to give people $25k when they put a down payment on a house will actually increase house prices by $25k so her plan doesn't help anyone except the people that receive the money from selling the house.
i swear people have always undermined biden's pretty competent presidency. it saddens me because i'd say his presidency is top ~20, reminder that he was sworn into presidency during a horrible period that was caused by trump's poor handling of covid-19
@@anthonycooke2401 yep they will make house pricing go up more then the hand out amount, we did it here in aus and study after study shows all it did was increase house prices.
As a Canadian, I'm expecting a big tariff on Canadian exports when Trump gets re-elected again.. complete madness.
Electoral college is such a stupid idea
Right now, yes. But in revolutionary america (classical American republicanism) it was great!
How? If 70% of a state is guaranteed to go towards one candidate then neither candidate will try and win more voters there. The most contested states will always be the most important electoral college or not.
I thinks it’s still relevant. Without it states like California with large populations would give smaller states no voice
@@dodoman502 yeah and now the large states where most people live, and the people who most contribute to the economy have much less 'voice' than some rural uneducated hillbilly living on subsidies
Won't matter when he wins the popular vote too
4:45 that also applies to the 2016 election, why didn't you mention it ?
Trump 2024 ❤
People are waking up. TRUMP 2024❤️🇺🇸
If we want to save the country, please vote for Trump.
Looking at all the polls, bookies, early vote totals, state-level trends, turnout demographics and enthusiasm; I don't think Kamala has much chance of winning this election. Trump should win every swing state by a margin between 0.5 (Michigan, Pennsylvania) and 5 (Georgia, Arizona) in my estimation, and challenge Kamala closely for Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Minnesota. I think Harris will just about hold all of those, but it'll be tight. I estimate a minimum win for Trump of 312 EC votes.
I am so glad we have your estimate to rely on, random youtube commenter.
comparing a midterm to a general presidential election is a rookie mistake. presidential elections are a different beast and trump is a turnout machine. He does extremely well with low propensity voters which is how he overperforms polls. I think he takes the victory on tuesday
Sorry Trumpets, but Kamala had the second verse in the ERB battle
Trump is FINISHED!!!!
trump and kamala fans need to accept that roosevelt will come out of the dead on november 5th and sweep the election on a flying moose
this is going to be 2016 all over again
@@kyzantia8884 I doubt it, Trump had the second verse in 2016
Those election polls mishaps can also be caused by a cyber attack.
Americans, can you just get this over and done with please.
it never ends, one the election is don’t it’s time for the half term campaign to begin 🙄🙄 it’s a circus
@@iancouper3644 it is 😵💫
Trump 2024🎉🎉
It's our party and Weil cry if we want too 😂
@@Trump2024-z7nyour account was made 1 day ago, totally not a bot lmao
I'm surprised that TDLR didn't mention the idea of reflectivity when it comes to the polls....
Why is this even close. Trumps a lunatic 🤷♂️
Not really though, why would half the country vote for a lunatic? Either you are wrong or 70-100 million Americans are wrong. I am pretty sure this is a you thing.
@@zjeee Dude can't see Harris has half a brain. Trump is a PROVEN success.
@@zjeee Nice ad populum fallacy you got there, buddy. Trump's not just a lunatic but also a convicted felon and a traitor.
@@zjeee Yes, half the country would vote for a lunatic. Maybe you're not old enough to remember the 2000 election, where one candidate was, agree or disagree on policy, a civilized adult, and the other was a drunken wannabe cowboy. Owning the libs>picking a rational candidate who will improve things. That's why we're at where we're at. GOP tanked the economy in 2008, and we never fully recovered. GOP got us in illlegal wars that Biden got us out of.
Constant exposure to pro republican media owned by billionaires who hate the American people, and all humanity in general. They just love subsidies, gov contacts and tax cuts.
Our 13GBP magazine
FOOD AND GAS PRICES ARE TOO HIGH.
If Kalama is elected I am sure we will head for an economic recession.
Yes for sure.. why would anyone vote for more of the same?? absolutely crazy
it's what Elon Musk promised if Trump wins. Have fun.
@@furrballElon is more scary then Trump
Ridiculous to learn about betting markets with politics.
Very close and Republicans are very likely going to wait until election day. Maybe I'm just coping or don't like how so many polls come back with Trump being the favorite to win even by a hair, but I hope some pollsters are getting fired after this similar to 2016. Even if the president we don't want get in I kind of just want this to be over and just make fun of who ever wins and hope Congress reigns in their odder policy.
By whom?? Ever poll, election analysist, and book puts Trump up by several percentages.
A lot of sheep in the comments are shocked that Trump is going to win as they have been eating up MSM lies... Even the tea lovers from across the pond 😂
Trumps betting odds are mostly astroturfed however, Elon Musk and a ton of cryptobros on Twitter started betting on Trump like crazy with huge amounts of money. And the odds started changing for Trump once they started betting. What we’re seeing now is neither a last minute surge for Harris or collapse of Trump - its simply the market adjusting itself and people with actual analytic knowledge understanding that it’s a 50/50 race and taking advantage of the bad odds for Harris to increase their potential revenue.
MUMU🤣😂😂😂😂😂
Fox is the mainstream media. More people watch FOx than all the other stations combined
Basically a bad election to bet since it's basically no better than a coin toss
Coin flip - democracy vs fascism. No. Not stressful at all!
Is Harris the fascist?
You realise the term fascism was first used to describe leftist ideology.
@@snowmonkey1 Mussolini (the inventor of fascism) ran away from the socialist party and was the strongest defender of corporatism (a not-exactly-leftist socioeconomic system), Franco was fervently conservative and religious, and Hitler opposed the revolutionary faction to the point of killing their leaders in the Night of the Long Knives, so... not to a good start with that argument
@@snowmonkey1 What? :/ Benito Mussolini wasn't considered left at all. They were actively considering communists their worst enemies, and it has been going like that for decades later, here in Italy. We INVENTED fascism, we know what we're talking about. There was a "left-ish" movement ahead of Mussolini on that side, but it faded pretty quickly into hard right. Anyway, that doesn't matter. The world is an atom of evil and you're just one of the many electrons around it.
You again bring up betting sites promoted in trump circles, as if gamblers are never wrong
Hopefully not. The Democrats must be punished.
Who would be punished: middle and lower income people.
@@Zett76exactly
Love it that many news outlets are saying that Harris is on top but aight.