Global Fertility Decline, Darrell Bricker and Vegard Skirbekk
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- Опубліковано 25 лют 2024
- Darrell Bricker and Vegard Skirbek - Global Fertility Decline: Disaster or Opportunity? Presented by Erlend Kirkevold, 19.02.2024
www.aldringoghelse.no/ - Наука та технологія
Thank you very much for highliting this multifaceted issue.
I'm an emigrated Norwegian, I've lived in Continental Europe for 7+ years with my now wife and have to say it will get worse before it gets better.
Understanding this issue is the most important thing for the average person now.
Thank you and good luck with further research!
Can you elaborate
It is cultural (alienation) but caused by a technological factor (old people don't die anymore) which turns to be an economic factor (resources are blocked by old cohorts and not given to young people: houses, savings, jobs) which feeds again the cultural factor (alienation) because nobody is ready to accept the issue is caused because our beloved olds. Check it and you'll see it is the same in Dallas, Dehli, Tokio or Rome.
Excellent discussion! Looking forward to a Round 2 sometime in the future.
At 6.25, you ask whether 2 billion with older people is really what's wanted by degrowth as it is a flipped pyramid. Unless you're a cruel dictator that deliberately increases the death rate, then lowering the birth rate is the only humane way of getting down to any number that low.... which obviously results in a flipped pyramid. So we need to work on how to manage that rather than implying it is not an option.
What about an airborne virus that just so happens to target the elderly?
@@grahamashe9715 I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks the same.
Everyone has suffered enough. People know every child born will have to go through so much more suffering.
Peter Zeihan has been talking about this for over 10 years now.
But Darrell Bricker is more complete. Zeihan sees it more as a market failure problem while Bricker sees the culture aspect much deeper than Zeihan. And as Zeihan has said if the world can't keep the consumerism model going he has no idea what will happen.
@6140LIBRA The Accidental Super Power, written 10 years ago, 80% accurate. Could your guy say that?
@@jhrusa8125 Apples to oranges.
@6140LIBRA Still doesn't erase the fact that he was 80% right. What's your guy's track record?
@@jhrusa8125 My guy?✌
The (lack of) consumption problem can be ameliorated by inflation. Massive money-printing will devalue what the elderly have in savings whereas young people can be paid a lot more in dollar terms.
I LAUGH because Men DISREGARD, DISRESPECT, INVALIDATE WOMEN! WOMEN are choosing to CLOSE/SHUT DOWN their WOMBS!! I see MEN TALK8NG AMONG THEMSELVES & NO WOMEN AROUND!!! Most Women REALIZED & continue to REALIZE that PATRIACHY/MEN/CAPITALISTS equates Women's WOMBS as a COMMODITY!!! GOODLUCK 😮😂
It can't.
Yup, robots don't buy haircuts or coffee or take yoga classes. Nor do many elders. Darrell is right: consumption will be the problem. But dealing with the effects of climate change will push up infrastructure spending and spending on buildings and equipment, so maybe aggregate demand will not be too badly affected. It's just that every family will feel poor because of high taxes.
With regard to childlessness, we have been here before. Early modern England and northern France had high levels of childlessness among both women and men, about a quarter of the population in both cases.
Edit: No government incentive to increase fertility can possibly work, because no-one will believe that incentives of the required size can be permanent. The only thing incentives do is bring forward child-bearing that was being planned anyway. Look at the Romanian experience. Five percent of GDP being spent to virtually no effect.
Edit 2: Children, and permanent monogamous relationships, are clearly not very desirable goods. Young middle-income people are choosing other things in preference to those. Policy will have to fix that.
There won't be enough people to maintain infrastructure.
I don't know any system that has maintained permanent monogamous relationship concept for long, other than religion. We'll soon find the impact of 3 generations of religion-free marriage-less societies.
@@nadmoi It all depends on what religion. Spirituality and religion are not the same. everyone is spiritual. Religion is an instruction manual, with some more harmful than others. Islam for example, is a misogynistic death cult, Christianity and Judaism are far more civilised. Islam creates economic ruin, Christianity and Judaism presides over successful economies (the Catholic and Orthodox branches of each do not however). So religion is problematic. If a book written by man offers a guide, it can be comforting to some, if it becomes an instruction manual, it is disastrous.
The only way to improve brith rate is have a verry good wealth redistribution system.
People also don't want to have kids because you older people will put money anywhere except into peoples hands,why not stop over taxing everyone outside of the wealth gated communities
Wtf is this comment section?
Being young in the city today is horrible in large part due to the lack of community - lack of young people, families.
There will likely not be a pension system around when I will need it - in about 45 years - because of the lack of young people in relation to elderly.
Loneliness epidemic is largely affected by this.
Horrible economic prospects to come as discussed here.
Immense cultural stagnation as majority voters are/will be 50 year olds.
We as a species seriously need to examine if birth control pills, sexual liberation and forcing women into the working market simply to survive is worth all these problems.
Women in the West are unhappier than ever, "freer" than ever and with fewer children than ever.
Is Tinder really worth all this lol
Yep, he talked about men struggling but women are also not happy, use of anti depressants and similar drugs are at an all time high for middle aged women and even suicide rates have increased as well, most studies looking at women's life satisfaction and "happiness score" have showed a decrease in recent times, I don't know where he get the idea that women on general are doing very well. Both sexes are on roughly path in the long term.
GLOBAL? This is a Western and Eastern problem. I see babies everywhere in Africa. Women have lots of babies
Not by much longer, in sub saharan africa population will also stabilize and decline in a not so distant future.
29:15 It's not quality of education but primarily genetic differences.