The Fourth Turning Is Here: Our Great National Challenge | Neil Howe
Вставка
- Опубліковано 5 вер 2024
- In Episode 321 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with bestselling author, renowned historian, economist, and theorist of generational change, Neil Howe.
Twenty-five years ago, Neil and his late co-author William Strauss put forward a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back over the last 500 years, they’d uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting roughly 80 to 100 years, with each composed of four eras-or “turnings”-that always arrive in the same order and each last about 25 years.
The last of these eras is always the most perilous. It’s a period of civic upheaval and national mobilization as traumatic and transformative as the New Deal and World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. The authors called it the Fourth Turning, and Neil joins us today to explain why he thinks that the fourth turning has finally arrived, what it means for those of us living during this period, and how his theory of generational change can help us navigate it with courage, competency, and a new-found sense of resiliency that may seem unimaginable to us today.
Howe and Kofinas spend the first hour of their conversation laying the foundation for his theory, discussing the four different seasons of the saecula, as well as the four different generations that propel it forward.
They spend the second hour applying that framework to the Fourth Turning itself, discussing what it would take to consolidate our society, what an existential threat to our nation’s survival will look and feel like, and what we can do to prepare ourselves for this great national challenge that will draw all other problems into it and require the extraordinary mobilization of most Americans.
You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at hiddenforces.i....
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.
If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | UA-cam | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed
Write us a review on Apple Podcasts at apple.co/3fLSIgR
Write us a review on Spotify at spoti.fi/3tv4zYr
Subscribe to our mailing list at hiddenforces.i...
Subscribe & Support the Podcast at hiddenforces.io
Follow Hidden Forces on Twitter: / hiddenforcespod
Follow Demetri on Twitter: / kofinas
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
Episode Recorded on 07/24/2023
Neil Howe is the embodiment of the quote "in order to predict the future, we must study the past". A proof that today's global situation is the same thing our ancestors went through 80 years ago and more. Remember, history repeats every 80 years... because we fail to learn the lessons of 80 years ago.
*The greatest lesson of history is that, ironically, we fail to learn from it.*
He nailed Gen X perfectly. My boomer parents and their siblings had loads of kids. Almost every one of these couples got divorced, and as a result their kids had very few marriages and very few kids. We were jaded because we saw all the BS of the boomer peace and love schtick and totally rejected the hypocrisy and nonsense of it all. It's also why we have no patience for hippies 😂
Neil Howe is gold in writting and delivering history and future predictions
lol, if you think he has done anything of significance, you should look into the Hindu religion. There are thousands of gurus that make Neil look like a snake oil salesman. He's only hijacked their system and sold it to ignorant people who haven't expanded their consciousness past the sub elementary level.
Interesting book, in depth research. I’d also suggest The Rise and Fall of Great Powers by Paul Kennedy 1987. Exhaustively researched analysis of the life cycle of a society
Neil Howe a national treasure!!!
How so?
No he isn’t . He is a puppet . He has placed nicely so everyone thinks the same topic and brings things to fruition . . Our minds are powerful and these are just plants on social media
- Neil Howe's accuracy within this is astoundly credible and well - developed so to historical parameters. (Intriguing and Fascinating research)!
Excellent, thanks again.
In 1932, Americans voted for Roosevelt because he wasn't Hoover. In 2016, Americans voted for Trump because he wasn't Hillary.
And Roosevelt started the welfare parasites class that Trump was trying to elevate. Good thing that Biden got in in time to drag everyone back down into the gutters. Whew! It was a close one! 😅
In 2020, they voted for Biden because he wasn't trump.
The illusion of choice is always trumpeted by the less of two evils dilemma.
What's your point?
Absolutely incredible discussion
Nice job Dimitri.
I wonder does it always have to be a war? Is there a way to get to the next step or the next point without the violence?
Theoretically, no, it doesn't have to be. But it does have to involve big change. And big change tends to make a lot of people scared and upset. Have you seen how people get when they're scared and upset? Now imagine that on a big scale. So yeah, most of the time, war.
@@dansdiscourse4957the plan demic had plenty of folk scared and taking orders so it can take more than war .. though constant talk and threats of war will do the same thing .
Thanks nice just to listen to something like this once in while
Interesting how the discussion progressed re US conducting two wars at the same time: Philippines Sea and Europe. Both sounded so excited that America was great at winning both wars. You seem to believe you can again win two wars at the same time: China and Russia. What you forget is Soviet Union (Russia) lost 28 million soldiers fighting Hitler for years before US entered the war. In addition, when USA got to Berlin, the Russians were already there and had captured the city.
The fighting with Japan began when the US sanctioned Japan from oil supplies. Japan fought back. US ally, China had lost 10 million lives during that war. They had been subject to extensive bloody battles and brutal treatment by Japanese. It ended because US dropped 2 atomic bombs. Overall America lost 405,000 soldiers. While Russia and China lost 38,000,000. Remember your history. Do you really think the USA can fight two wars at the same time... After all you have few allies left who have large fighting fe/male populations. You will be choosing to fight the two largest and technically advanced armed military of 5.5 million soldiers. Give your heads a shake!!
The effect of technology is missing from this argument.
Not in the books
The short version is, while technology generally keeps improving and giving us gradually (or rapidly better) capabilities, it's role will always be dependent on the mood of the era. In other words the uses to which a technology gets put are going to depend a lot on the hands using it, and that's what the cycle deals with.
@@dansdiscourse4957 well said. Who will prevail between Musk’s vision of technology and TikTok’s hahahaha
The theory skips over some major events that don’t fit into the neat timeline. E.g. World War I.
where are the chapter timestamps?
I hope at the moment we emerge from the 4th turning we get payback against the 2 Big 2 Fail monsters
Did you compare it to other nations with a much richer history of both? No you settle for a 200 year old blimp on the radar, how useless and intellectually lazy.. Like wrighting about Football from 2020 in Denver, whats the point of that?
At the hour mark the author discusses these huge transformative decisions made at the height of crisis. They were horrible and tyrannical and got worse each time!
The heavy taxation of the new citizenry after the Revolution, the heavy regulation of industry after the Civil War, the creation of the Welfare state after the Great Depression. Holy crap! What next? Mark my words, the Social Credit System will be those next crisis "great idea". 😬😔
Maybe you should leave the US. It's not for everyone.
Mr. Howe’s next book should be “How to Build a Lucrative Career as a Charlatan with Only One Cockamamie Idea.” His “theory of history” or whatever it is called bears the level of validity and value of a horoscope.
Exactly and peddling fear always sells
Does this mean we are just doomed to repeat our mistakes?
If we fail to learn history and learn from it… yup
Yeah you're just a tool of the elite that are working with the Jews to control you but I'm sure you think that's a conspiracy theory LOL enjoy the next pandemic
@@tuckerbugeater once you mention these noses, your comment is automatically ghosted by the jewtube
those who study history are doomed to watch as those who don't repeat it
FDR and Lincoln around 1:02??
Yes, the faces of the Gray Champion in the last two Crises.
the theory is interesting but his emphasis is on attitudes not actual history. It does give me hope that we will all come together again as a nation.
- the gray shadow of the mid to late 1970's
The Fourth Turning is a book worth reading. The latest book doesn't add much. Mr. Howe is interesting but it's getting pretty repetitive.
Not everyone has heard him
He’s a demographer… the content only changes a handful of times a century. Even still, it’s the same general cycles.
It's funny that he seems to think he's discovered something new, that is why he is just running in circles holding onto something he discovered 30 years ago, that has been a part of humans since the beginning of time. If you want to understand where he gets his ideas from without overly complicating it (as he does) while also going deeper, just learn about astrology.
@@CasuallyAuthenticI know people want to think of Strauss-Howe generational theory as just more metaphysical nonsense, but it really isn't. It's psychology and sociology played out on a big scale, both in numbers and in time.
@dansdiscourse4957 I don't believe it's metaphysics. As you said, its psychology and sociology based. What I'm saying is he has just hijacked age old ideas and added nothing of significance to it. It would be like Jung taking credit for all of his work, but also not improving upon the archetype and modernizing it as he did.
Carter was of Silent gen. Full of process, etc
No he was a GI, but ran counter to his generation, like Jack Kerouac did in literature
The silent generation were born during WW2. Carter was born 1924
The Beach Boys were NOT Boomers.
42:46 9/11 was the shocking jolt to the sense of American security invulnerability.
It was a psy op.
Yes, the realisation of what your own government was capable of, and the utter complicity of the controlled corporate media. Nightmarish.
No it was an actual attack carried out by people within the US government and Israelis but go #### yourself
They worked with Israelis and they probably did most of the work
Politicians/Picadors...
In A BullRing, The 'MADador'
hides a sword under a red cape
Before ending the life of the Bull ! ...
to the applause of spectators.
Beginning of The Bullfight,
men on horseback [picadors/politicians]
stick picks into the muscles of the
Bull to weaken it !!!!
In The End Of Days, Born-again
ESCAPE to Heaven
in The Rapture....
Pray You & Yours Are Born-again!! AMEN
❤🏆👍🏼🎯❤
Vote Libertarian 💯 n00bs 🔥🔥🔥
RFK Jr
Is Donald Trump the gray champion? I have a good feeling he will be elected in 2024 and lead our country out of this Fourth Turning. I can’t see the democrats as being strong enough to do so.
You can’t vote your way out of this. The Uniparty brought us here, 1 man won’t change that.
@@PistonHonda87Wow.. clearly you haven't read the book, because had you done so you'd know there is a "gray champion" that leads the nation through the crisis period or fourth turning such as George Washington, Abe Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt and possibly Donald Trump. That's through not away.
Trump may end up being the reason democracy fails. In fact it’s looking more and more like it will.
You should vote for Jared from Subway where Jeffrey Epstein maybe even Joe Biden you seem to like pedophiles
@Punk_On_Demand Trump is only a catalyst to help awaken a.d build up to the emerging champion. Trump does not poses the qualities of a "gray champion". A champion is selfless, and un-corrupted he is the embodiment of the people he champions. Trump is none of these things, not even a martyr. He is only the transparent antagonist, who played the game and got caught, while exposing the reality of our failed Democracy. Fyi, Niel did not invent the gray champion and he didn't even do it justice. There is no one gray champion, it is the collective achieving the archetype and with it the people become their own champion. Washington and Lincoln are no champions, only exploiters of their situatuion. Everything they did, was for their own gains. It's was the people who are the champions. And this is why the cycle continues, because just as the champion was setting in motion the next antagonist was already coming to power. We will only break from this cycle when we realize that we are our own champions, nature is our only leader and self knowledge and love are the only qualities we need to poses.
I think the fourth turning really begun in 2016.
Why?
@@edsacks The crisis mood only really begun in 2016 in my opinion. Also there's nothing on the horizon that could resolve the issues facing America which makes me think that the crisis will last another 10-15 years at least, which would make this fourth turning implausibly long.
Too big to fail was in 2008 which really began a bad mood. Trust me!
@@schmiggidy it's definitely not even the beginning of the beginning
@@danesovic7585 You might not realize how much the market crash affected people around the world. That crisis lead to fear and anxiety. People went looking for help, i.e. government. The crisis continued and exacerbated by Obama being a wedge along racial divisions and people vs the police. Police step back, chaos with riots, unruly campus voices and protest complaining of their safety and a disrespect of diverse views, while the normal working people feel slighted by their leaders and social structures and begin to push back by voting for a new voice of antiestablishment leadership in 2016. The politic push back from 2016 is with the use of fear to regain power and manipulation of people with the use of media. Enter Russia hoax, very fine people hoax, and multiple other media fear propaganda and lies including the fear narrative of covid. The crisis started in 2008 and hasn't stopped yet. And won't till roughly 2028 - 2032.
And to add for comparison, before 2008, there was, besides the wars in the middle east, a good sense of unity and positive outlook. Racial tensions were pretty low. For instance, Rush Hour 3 staring a black man and an Asian, premiered at number 1 in August 2007 and continued at number 2 for 14 weeks. And Black Eyed Peas, a mixed race music group, had numerous hits. Especially off their E.N.D. album released in 2009.