I learned that the stock market was a rich man's game (yes, grandparents lost it all back then and preached that forever) but I've been around long enough to really taste how great it can be. To be profitable, with inflation at 6.1% These are surely desperate times, but in my opinion, there is no market condition that a good financial advisor cannot navigate, especially those that have existed since the crisis of 2008 and before.
They are quite effective, I've been using the skills of an advisor since the August 2015 stock sell off when the Dow fell over 1800 pts which inherently wiped out all my gains I was in down over $80,000 (terrible times)... That's when I started using an advisor, it took me about 6 months to break even and also a net gain of 'about $830,000 while others have waited over years to break even, being aggressive certainly comes with greater risk, but with an investmėnt advisör, it's all been calculated risk.
my 401k growth has been stagnant since the 2019. I wouldn't mind consulting the advisor who guides you, I really want to grow my retirement fund since I could retire in 3 years.
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Very good video. I like your channel a lot and a long term subscriber. I have a question (not asking for advise, just opinion!): Assuming 2025 does what you think, which is a S&P pull back (or crash, or correction): Do you think it will only be a rotation, meaning while S&P goes down, then value and smallcaps go up OR do you think it'll be a full market crash where smallcaps and value will also go down? Just curious for your opinion on this. Thanks.
It depends on the stocks, some stocks I own aren't even in an index and they should hold up better, but still, everything should go down together, some stocks that are executing will always differentiate
I'm so happy I watched. An economist named Henrik Zeberg corroborates much of this thesis. He has had a similar thesis for quite a few years (noob opinion) but he's screaming bloody murder. GOOD LUCK ALL !
Good stuff. I was talking to someone recently and said I wondered if we were starting to get a rotation out of the top of the index. For me, it'll be interesting to see if that rotation happens or the mag 7 stocks selling off causes the whole thing to correct before we really get the rotation. I'm leaning toward agreeing with your idea of a rotation though. It'll be interesting.
Great video. I am on the same boat and I think NVDA will be the trigger. In about 6 months the comparables will be very hard to match as revenue grew on gpu price hikes and not that much on quantity. The narrative will change sending google (which i think is the most undervalued of the faang), msft, aapl and all the semis down first. I can see a 20% pullback if that happens.
Prefer stock analysis videos. Have you looked into LSXMK? It looks like a buy with decent MOS at 20 pps. Others that look interesting to me are APA (5x FCF, catalyst is Suriname in 12 mos), CNXC (5x FCF, catalyst post-merger synergies and paying down debt)
If there's a belief of a crash then surely cyclical stocks like ULTA are less likely to return to the $600 mark before a crash. So should be considered a sell now?
I don't know if you watched the entire video, but I said in late 2025, that's a year from now, ulta went up 45% in 2 months after it bottomed last year, there's plenty of time if ulta is a short term investment for you, for me I mentioned that I don't touch my long term investments no matter what
@@thepatientinvestor9580 I did watch it, as I do all your videos! I am just confused as to whether ULTA is a short or long term play. If it's to rebound within a year, investor sentiment would have to change for retail. Would that happen leading into a recession and the fear index showing as it is? Sorry, have a feeling I've missed something here that's obvious. I'll rewatch the videos
Thanks for your thesis. I don’t fully agree but I really appreciate your thoughts. I give it about another 1-1.5 years before people realize that NVDA being cheap was only temperory. NVDA already acknowledged it and is offering Ethernet but seemed to paint this in a positive light when it is clearly negative that they will lose their monopoly. I’ve positioned for this already with a large allocation into ANET. But this change will likely be the catalyst to give the market a soft crash as all AI stocks are likely to indiscriminately crash in response. Overall I am still bullish and will keep buying stocks and when this crash happens, I’m going to be buying heavily into other tech names and MNST energy. Idk if I’ll share this on my UA-cam since my channel is so tiny but I may consider making some videos about my positioning.
I checked out a couple of your vids and I think you should share the individual buys. YT really needs more sound stock pickers rather than the typical Sofi/Tesla/unprofitable stock bros that quite honestly don't know anything about portfolio management.
Given your current thesis, what’s your action plan on your long term holdings that you already have a full position in? Are you going to be trimming them heavily to book in your profits?
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast. I will also suggest investors to get yourselves a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
VENTURING into the trading world without the help of a profesionals, trading and expecting profit is like turning water into wine you would need a miracle...
The crypto market has been unfavorable for months and I keep losing my money selling-off during dips, I'm very scared of holding right now,how do you guys still make so much….?
Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!!Juliana heidi
No doubt!! I never knew juliana heidi had gone viral. I decided to back up my assets and property with her when we met at a conference in Boston, Massachusetts🇺🇸 for the first time..
It is so impossible to predict such things. The overpriced must correct, and the high growth must revert to the mean, but all the rest do not have to follow them although they oftentimes do. Crashes are not mandatory, nor is inflation. If you avoid the overpriced and the high growth and don't panic, your assets will not crash though they will fluctuate.
That's why I said I'm not selling my long term investments, I recognize that, but having a view on the market has helped me maximize short and long term opportunities
Great video. Like the analysis. However, I think that you underestimate the importance of the money supply M2. It is very high over trend and only way to have a crash require a massive event like covid or something very disruptive which I believe is not likely. This is a stock market which reminder of the 1990s. I think that 2025 could be a little pullback so not as good as 2024 but flat or mildly good.
How does a rotation lower the the multiples of the stock market? It doesn't, if small caps and other "boring" stocks do not have higher earnings... The consumer is doing worse, interest rates will still be very high in a year from now and everything gets worse by the day, because the negative effects of high interests rates are cumulative...If you look at the Hussman gauge of market valuations is at sky high levels, the shiller PE is at historical highs, so is the s&p 500 PE ratio(earnings yield is currently worse than before 2022 market crash), price to book value, meaning owners earnings are higher than 2022, price to sales ratio is as high as before 2022 crash, curve is inverting, all big caps except maybe amazon and meta are at very high valuations, 46 PFCF for the biggest company in the world, Apple with a 36 PE ratio, highest point in its history with flat earnings(inflation adjusted they are down) for the past 3 years...broadcom, eli lilly, tesla all extremely high multiples...we are not talking about small companies here...they make up a large portion of the market...
@@wheatandtares9764 did I say the rotation will lower the multiple? I didn't, I said the rotation will happen this year and stocks will crash all together next year, I could be wrong but that's my thesis
@@thepatientinvestor9580 Hey. Thank you for your response. I wasnt suggesting that you said that... what I mean is in general. A stock rotation won't change the multiples or the intrinsic value of the economy as some people think it somehow magically will... but thanks for your answer. Why do you think it will take another 6 months and won't be earlier?
@@wheatandtares9764 because of the 10y minus 3 month being so inverted, the crash happened when it turned positive 100% of the time and we are far from turning positive
I don't think there will be a Fed pivot this year. Looking through the data on FRED, I see no evidence that the economy is slowing, and it looks like inflation is leveling-off. So I think they'll leave short term rates as-is. Long term rates may even drift upward. If inflation does drift downward or unemployment rises, and the Fed does ease, it'll be minimal.
I think you haven't watched the video, I said In 2025 which is starting 6 months from now and at the end of the video i highlighted that a republican majority would change this thesis, thanks
And the trillions of dollars sitting in money market funds will find their way to the markets as interest rates come down which will compensate for a weaker dollar, although if all central banks are cutting, the dollar may not crash
Nice video very informative! One thing to add is the huge us deficit 6-7% GDP with just 2% GDP growth which is pushing up the market, giving a false sense of security and keeping rates higher for longer. If we assume that the US atleast cuts the deficit a little that will have an impact on the market
This will almost never happen, most president nowadays brag about how well the stock market is performing lol, most people are exposed to stocks, I doubt someone will do the right thing
Great video as always. Although a 2025 crash may not be likely if we're still in a bull market. I held on to that cut=crash thought for too long, before realizing this is a bull market, albeit weird/unbalanced. But I agree 100% with your 2024 thesis.
I've been making a lot of losses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do...?
The stock market almost always does a slow tumble while rate cuts are happening. How far it tumbles depends on how long rate cuts last and how much recession was triggered by higher rates. My guess is the current administration will continue to fudge the numbers to mask the recession that likely started Q3 of 2023 - until after the election. By then, the market will take a hard tumble regardless of market cap.
Pay Attention !! Bro the difference between professional UA-camr and basic UA-camr have a line of Thumbnail !!! I'll do thumbnails but not it is really important but the important the is it increases the CTR of your videos, I work with many youtubers and i know waht a youtube channel needs So i offer you 100 thumbnail at the price $799. Probably this is one of the best investment i here from my clients !! ❤
I got a new microphone so next video should be better, thanks for watching!
It's perfect !
I didn't notice any problems with sound quality.
Love your videos ❤
So great trading to be had in other words
Audio is good!
I learned that the stock market was a rich man's game (yes, grandparents lost it all back then and preached that forever) but I've been around long enough to really taste how great it can be. To be profitable, with inflation at 6.1% These are surely desperate times, but in my opinion, there is no market condition that a good financial advisor cannot navigate, especially those that have existed since the crisis of 2008 and before.
I know having a financial advisor improves your overall portfolio performance, but are they really as effective as you claim?
They are quite effective, I've been using the skills of an advisor since the August 2015 stock sell off when the Dow fell over 1800 pts which inherently wiped out all my gains I was in down over $80,000 (terrible times)... That's when I started using an advisor, it took me about 6 months to break even and also a net gain of 'about $830,000 while others have waited over years to break even, being aggressive certainly comes with greater risk, but with an investmėnt advisör, it's all been calculated risk.
my 401k growth has been stagnant since the 2019. I wouldn't mind consulting the advisor who guides you, I really want to grow my retirement fund since I could retire in 3 years.
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Very good video. I like your channel a lot and a long term subscriber. I have a question (not asking for advise, just opinion!): Assuming 2025 does what you think, which is a S&P pull back (or crash, or correction): Do you think it will only be a rotation, meaning while S&P goes down, then value and smallcaps go up OR do you think it'll be a full market crash where smallcaps and value will also go down? Just curious for your opinion on this. Thanks.
It depends on the stocks, some stocks I own aren't even in an index and they should hold up better, but still, everything should go down together, some stocks that are executing will always differentiate
@@thepatientinvestor9580 Thanks so much. Really I appreciate your answer.
That's a great thesis. Thank you for sharing it!
I'm so happy I watched. An economist named Henrik Zeberg corroborates much of this thesis. He has had a similar thesis for quite a few years (noob opinion) but he's screaming bloody murder. GOOD LUCK ALL !
Interesting thesis. I think a rotation will happen. Thanks.
The question is if you expect a crash 2025 do you exit most of your long positions or just keep them long term and just have more cash set aside
I talked about it in the first 30 seconds, I don't sell my long term positions but I have an amount that I use to bet on such events
Informative video as always. Agree on the rotation. Regarding your recession call, how do we get there if the fiscal deficit stays at 6% of GDP?
Also, GOP are voting for these large spending bills. The uni-party understands that more spending is required to keep the ponzi game going.
Good stuff. I was talking to someone recently and said I wondered if we were starting to get a rotation out of the top of the index. For me, it'll be interesting to see if that rotation happens or the mag 7 stocks selling off causes the whole thing to correct before we really get the rotation. I'm leaning toward agreeing with your idea of a rotation though. It'll be interesting.
Started buying RSP last week, planning to buy all the way down. Ready to see some deep red in my account for a while and then hold.
Great video. I am on the same boat and I think NVDA will be the trigger. In about 6 months the comparables will be very hard to match as revenue grew on gpu price hikes and not that much on quantity. The narrative will change sending google (which i think is the most undervalued of the faang), msft, aapl and all the semis down first.
I can see a 20% pullback if that happens.
Prefer stock analysis videos. Have you looked into LSXMK? It looks like a buy with decent MOS at 20 pps. Others that look interesting to me are APA (5x FCF, catalyst is Suriname in 12 mos), CNXC (5x FCF, catalyst post-merger synergies and paying down debt)
I do this once a month or so
@@thepatientinvestor9580 no worries.
If there's a belief of a crash then surely cyclical stocks like ULTA are less likely to return to the $600 mark before a crash. So should be considered a sell now?
I don't know if you watched the entire video, but I said in late 2025, that's a year from now, ulta went up 45% in 2 months after it bottomed last year, there's plenty of time if ulta is a short term investment for you, for me I mentioned that I don't touch my long term investments no matter what
@@thepatientinvestor9580 I did watch it, as I do all your videos! I am just confused as to whether ULTA is a short or long term play.
If it's to rebound within a year, investor sentiment would have to change for retail. Would that happen leading into a recession and the fear index showing as it is?
Sorry, have a feeling I've missed something here that's obvious. I'll rewatch the videos
@@salterwackadooday for me ulta has priced in the recession and will rebound way before this whole thing happens
@@thepatientinvestor9580 got it. Appreciate the reply. I'm a natural blonde 😂
Thanks for your thesis. I don’t fully agree but I really appreciate your thoughts. I give it about another 1-1.5 years before people realize that NVDA being cheap was only temperory. NVDA already acknowledged it and is offering Ethernet but seemed to paint this in a positive light when it is clearly negative that they will lose their monopoly. I’ve positioned for this already with a large allocation into ANET. But this change will likely be the catalyst to give the market a soft crash as all AI stocks are likely to indiscriminately crash in response. Overall I am still bullish and will keep buying stocks and when this crash happens, I’m going to be buying heavily into other tech names and MNST energy. Idk if I’ll share this on my UA-cam since my channel is so tiny but I may consider making some videos about my positioning.
I checked out a couple of your vids and I think you should share the individual buys. YT really needs more sound stock pickers rather than the typical Sofi/Tesla/unprofitable stock bros that quite honestly don't know anything about portfolio management.
Given your current thesis, what’s your action plan on your long term holdings that you already have a full position in? Are you going to be trimming them heavily to book in your profits?
NEVER!!!!! I never touch my long term investments
Great to hear your thoughts.
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast. I will also suggest investors to get yourselves a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
VENTURING into the trading world without the help of a profesionals, trading and expecting profit is like turning water into wine you would need a miracle...
The crypto market has been unfavorable for months and I keep losing my money selling-off during dips, I'm very scared of holding right now,how do you guys still make so much….?
Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!!Juliana heidi
Great to see you guys talking of juliana , Trading on your own can be very dangerous i can testify to that. This woman changed the game for me
No doubt!! I never knew juliana heidi had gone viral. I decided to back up my assets and property with her when we met at a conference in Boston, Massachusetts🇺🇸 for the first time..
It is so impossible to predict such things. The overpriced must correct, and the high growth must revert to the mean, but all the rest do not have to follow them although they oftentimes do. Crashes are not mandatory, nor is inflation. If you avoid the overpriced and the high growth and don't panic, your assets will not crash though they will fluctuate.
That's why I said I'm not selling my long term investments, I recognize that, but having a view on the market has helped me maximize short and long term opportunities
Great video. Like the analysis. However, I think that you underestimate the importance of the money supply M2. It is very high over trend and only way to have a crash require a massive event like covid or something very disruptive which I believe is not likely. This is a stock market which reminder of the 1990s. I think that 2025 could be a little pullback so not as good as 2024 but flat or mildly good.
Very possible
How does a rotation lower the the multiples of the stock market? It doesn't, if small caps and other "boring" stocks do not have higher earnings... The consumer is doing worse, interest rates will still be very high in a year from now and everything gets worse by the day, because the negative effects of high interests rates are cumulative...If you look at the Hussman gauge of market valuations is at sky high levels, the shiller PE is at historical highs, so is the s&p 500 PE ratio(earnings yield is currently worse than before 2022 market crash), price to book value, meaning owners earnings are higher than 2022, price to sales ratio is as high as before 2022 crash, curve is inverting, all big caps except maybe amazon and meta are at very high valuations, 46 PFCF for the biggest company in the world, Apple with a 36 PE ratio, highest point in its history with flat earnings(inflation adjusted they are down) for the past 3 years...broadcom, eli lilly, tesla all extremely high multiples...we are not talking about small companies here...they make up a large portion of the market...
@@wheatandtares9764 did I say the rotation will lower the multiple? I didn't, I said the rotation will happen this year and stocks will crash all together next year, I could be wrong but that's my thesis
@@thepatientinvestor9580 Hey. Thank you for your response. I wasnt suggesting that you said that... what I mean is in general. A stock rotation won't change the multiples or the intrinsic value of the economy as some people think it somehow magically will... but thanks for your answer. Why do you think it will take another 6 months and won't be earlier?
@@wheatandtares9764 because of the 10y minus 3 month being so inverted, the crash happened when it turned positive 100% of the time and we are far from turning positive
Perfect appreciate your work
..all the way from india
I don't think there will be a Fed pivot this year. Looking through the data on FRED, I see no evidence that the economy is slowing, and it looks like inflation is leveling-off. So I think they'll leave short term rates as-is. Long term rates may even drift upward.
If inflation does drift downward or unemployment rises, and the Fed does ease, it'll be minimal.
Interesting thesis .. thank-you for sharing!
I enjoy your videos. Thanks for what your expertise
Ill revisit this video in 6 months
I think you haven't watched the video, I said In 2025 which is starting 6 months from now and at the end of the video i highlighted that a republican majority would change this thesis, thanks
would you advise to sell out now and buy in during the crash at the bottom? i only hold good blue chips dividend stocks not tech
something that you haven't touched is the lowering interest rates in theory will make the dollar weak and make foreign funds pull some of their money.
And the trillions of dollars sitting in money market funds will find their way to the markets as interest rates come down which will compensate for a weaker dollar, although if all central banks are cutting, the dollar may not crash
I think you are correct
Nice video very informative!
One thing to add is the huge us deficit 6-7% GDP with just 2% GDP growth which is pushing up the market, giving a false sense of security and keeping rates higher for longer.
If we assume that the US atleast cuts the deficit a little that will have an impact on the market
This will almost never happen, most president nowadays brag about how well the stock market is performing lol, most people are exposed to stocks, I doubt someone will do the right thing
Great video as always. Although a 2025 crash may not be likely if we're still in a bull market. I held on to that cut=crash thought for too long, before realizing this is a bull market, albeit weird/unbalanced. But I agree 100% with your 2024 thesis.
It's a bull market until it's not my friend
This is an interesting take. But tbh i am already buying reits.
Excellent analysis
Great video
Good video thanks
we already have a recession in consumption in the United States. retail in the United States is already suffering consequences from the recession.
You've got a good head for this
The tech sector will correct, not the entire market, IMO.
This time it's different. This time it's much worse.
MCD NOC SBUX UNP PEP
HSY
interesting video
I just watched this video, good insight, too. "Stock Market at New Highs? Here's What I'm Buying Part 1 of 2" by Adam Khoo.
What’s going on with geopolitics? You should know.
I know, but I don't get political on youtube
Not sure you are grasping how bad the economy and consumer are doing! We will see a very deep recession IMO and it’s incoming.
interesting thank you!
So buy up the usual October bottom lol
Bull forever
suicide
👍
The market may crash within a month or less.
haha I hope
Manage my money please
Join my group and you can follow what I do in real time
I've been making a lot of losses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do...?
@Mia-qu4skbrilant spam.. hehe
Stephanie Antoni is so bad at trading she has to give discounted toss jobs behind a truck stop to pay her bills.
The stock market almost always does a slow tumble while rate cuts are happening. How far it tumbles depends on how long rate cuts last and how much recession was triggered by higher rates.
My guess is the current administration will continue to fudge the numbers to mask the recession that likely started Q3 of 2023 - until after the election. By then, the market will take a hard tumble regardless of market cap.
Pay Attention !!
Bro the difference between professional UA-camr and basic UA-camr have a line of Thumbnail !!!
I'll do thumbnails but not it is really important but the important the is it increases the CTR of your videos, I work with many youtubers and i know waht a youtube channel needs
So i offer you 100 thumbnail at the price $799. Probably this is one of the best investment i here from my clients !! ❤