Stock Market Bubble: Cause for Concern?
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- Опубліковано 30 кві 2024
- According to Jenermy Grantham and other stock market commentators, the US stock market is in a bubble. But is this true and should investors be worried? In this video, I look at valuations, and consider why this matters. I also discuss whether we should reduce our US allocation, show you how you can do this and finally consider what might make the bubble pop.
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Thank you
Thank you, Ramin. Long time follower and always appreciate your analysis.
Much appreciated @jon34153
Great video. I appreciate the discussion of diversifying geographically and into more reasonably valued sectors like financials and real estate. Two other ways I can think of to avoid over-concentration in a handful of very overvalued US mega caps: 1. Buy small caps and medium caps. There's a lot more to the US market than the S&P500, and there are plenty of ETFs that offer exposure to smaller US equities. 2. Buy an equal-weighted S&P500 ETF. This provides exposure to the S&P500 without over-exposure to a handful of extremely over-valued tech stocks. I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on these two options! Thanks for your always excellent content!
Appreciate your thoughts and you just confirmed my approach to staying invested in a diverse group of US and international low cost index funds. Markets go up and down. Stocks are cheap then expensive, whatever. Always be buying no matter what happens and just ignore the noise. Thank you Ramen.
Excellent as always Ramin.
Thanks for listening @johnennis3542
There's over 6 Trillion $ in money market funds waiting on the side for the Fed to cut interest rates. Where will this money go? I would guestimate that the S&P 500 will be the major beneficiary.
How does that compare to what’s already in those markets?
Back into savings accounts and long bonds, where it came from
@@deamonkind when interest rates fall, you reckon?
This claim is pedaled a lot to suggest the equity rally will continue. Much of the wealth stored in MM funds will stay in cash, whilst those who move out will seek bonds as the natural alternative.
@@edc1569The current global market cap is around $110 trillion and the S&P 500 is around $43 trillion.
Through this video -You have answered my question I posted in super chat the other day towards the end of your live chat. Thank you Ramin 😊
You are so welcome! @vinnyraja
The IPO flow does not suggest we have reached the market peak.
I remember Greenspan's 'irrational exuberance' warning, and the market kept rising for years.
Just keep buying and dont worry about it 🎉🎉🎉
Why do you say this? If the US destroy the dollar and a global event happens, then things will get bad, right?
Thank you! Brilliant!
You're welcome! @fritz2eierkopf249
Hi Ramin tehe 🎉
I remember very similar talk in 1995 and the bull run still had 5 years to go
aye there is no way to know. Like when they forcaste interest rates would rise each year for over a decade from 2008, and they never rose, because the real economy was shot.
Personally I think the thing is to set stop losses and keep on holding the winners, maybe trim a little positions every so often.
@@kr050 Yep. Fixed my mortgage interest rate at 4.95% for the final 5 years because of those forecasts, then interest rates fell to the lowest levels ever.🙄
@@Jalleur14325 How will you know which will be the winners?
Great video ramin. Calm and measured as ever 👍
Thanks 👍@911graeme
In Europe you can find really good companies to reasonable prices. I just baught a Belgian/German Semi fab called X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES. It is supplier to automotive, medical, IoT and other growth sectors with mixed signal semis. Its kind of a smaller Infineon with excellent mgmt, strong growth, little debt and with a P/E of 6!!!
Trouble with forward P/E is research has shown a weak correlation between forward P/E and future stock returns for the S&P 500. Staying invested is a good way of avoiding the problem of inaccurate market analysts causing you to mistime the market and end up with a lower return.
Not with a CAPE analysis. Strong correlation there. VERY strong
Seen research that a the FW PE yield is similar to the returns over a 20 year period plus inflation. So in the long there’s a good correlation just short term you never know what will happen.
Negative correlation between CAPE ratio and S&P500 returns has weakened in recent times, and was historically never a perfect correlation to begin with.
That is a theory, but a problematic one because estimation errors inevitably will lead to inaccurate projections for both short-term and long-term market returns.
Great video. Very informative. Thanks.
Glad it was helpful! @jacc88888
Super professional and informative as usual Ramin - thank you so much for all your hard work in producing this excellent channel.
Much appreciated! @miltonwillis112
The problem with the forward PEs is that they seem predicated on a high level of growth which is unlikely to materialise. Analysts are systematically overoptimistic.
I don't agree. Majority of companies, at least those in SP500 have a positive earnings surprise compared to earnings miss, compared to analysts consensus.
Always grateful for your objective commentary and analysis. Also thought your podcast with Michael on cognitive bias was an excellent listen.
Much appreciated! @timwood101
Great video as always and lots to think about. Love to hear your thoughts on using an equal weighted fund to stay at a high percentage in the US but derisk based on the weightings being equal versus the Mag 7 or Fab Four or whatever being so huge. Thanks
Great video as always Ramin. I'm heavily invested in US and AI so you have got me thinking. Although I think AI, robotics and semiconductors aren't short-term hype and are actually world changing technologies that will have a huge impact on our future.
For the worse, mostly. Even less human contact.
@@Jalleur14325 In my opinion, that's a good thing. 😆 As Sartre once said, hell is other people - he was right.
That may be true - and their current pricing does include a premium to match that potential
Disagree about putting JUST Japan separately, there are lots of PACIFIC ETFs, which include Japan, Australia - which is what you really want, they also include Hong Kong, Sigapore, New Zealand, depending on the fund.
Vanguard have an Asia Pacific ex Japan ETF, which has returned about 1% a year since its inception 3 years ago, whilst their Japan only ETF has returned just under 6% a year since its inception. Japan has a more advanced economy with larger and better quality companies, as well as a larger population than any of those other countries. Australia is a Pacific version of Scotland, whilst New Zealand is the Pacific's answer to Wales.
@@Andygb78 "since its inception" is the key here, because overall Japan hasn't been doing very well in the last 30 years. That's as long as some people invest in their lifetime before they need to take the money out.
Pacific growth tied to china? if china tanks, they all do.
@@MagicNash89 Yes, Japan hasn't done well since the economic miracle ended in the early nineties, as it's taken them 30 years to get back to where they were in the 80s, but it's still forecast to be amongst the world's top ten economies in 2030, when the UK, France, Italy & Canada all drop out to make way for some of the emerging market nations. So Japan's economic forecast going forward is OK. It wouldn't be my first choice as a country to invest in, but there are worse options out there imo.
@@Andygb78 What makes you say the likes of UK, France .. are dropping out of the top 10 economies and Japan are staying in? Just wondering how you forecast that?
Small caps aren't expensive, you can tell because nobody talks about them anymore. Except for in India where they're all the rage and in a bubble.
Excellent video as usual. Sound sane advice. Regarding your single fund strategy it might make an interesting video to look at levels of protection against loss for different asset types with different providers…. In case of internal fraud (FTX etc), liquidity problems (Northern Rock etc) or other external threats (cyber attack etc). Having 90% of your wealth in a single fund with a single provider must carry some risk….
Thank You.
You're welcome @DPTrainor1
I don't see the point of splitting funds just to weigh regions on your own. The whole point of indexes is that they were weighted according to their performance.
Indexes are present-looking (actually, backward looking up to today). Ramin is talking about forward-looking.
what if you want to have small caps included? how much will be the allocation?
Could you make a video about pros/cons for ETFs based in Ireland vs. Luxembourg? How do withholding tax with more, impact the performance of the ETF? Thanks for all your great content😀
An excellent video. A few months back I changed the equity portion of my pension away from a single All Cap style fund into a a handful of regional ones. US exposure is down from 65% to 50%. Also my M7 exposure is almost halved (despite this, they are still the top 7 in the new portfolio).
What do you think about adding iShares Edge MSCI World Enhanced Value UCITS ETF at times of high valuations?
Looks attractive from a valuation standpoint, but it looked attractive for a decade now and it still vastly underperformed plain SWDA. I'd go for a 20% weight in my portfolio. So, a smaller side bet on value.
I like etf ZLU a low volatility basket of varying sized US companies. It has actually been an outperformer over the last many years.
Great video, thanks. Whats your opinion on solely holding the FWRG Invesco FTSE all world ETF which is diversified with both global developed and emerging markets in 1 fund. OR holding 2 individual funds separating the developed and emerging markets with balanced investment weights? For example investing in 90% VHVG and 10% VFEG. Interested to know your opinion, all the best
I’m 100% FWRG. Cheapest way to ‘own the market’ as far as I’m aware. Simpler than multiple funds and no rebalancing needed.
I own PRIW for developed and EMIM for emerging on InvestEngine at a 75/25 ratio, the weighted average TER comes to 0.0825%, so cheaper than than the Invesco global ETF. The only thing is that as the two ETFs follow different indecies so Poland is represented twice, but as Poland is a very small share of the pie I'm fine with that. And the country is on the up anyhow.
I don't bother with EM, they will still be emerging 50 years from now and in the meantime it just adds volatility with little benefit. Global Developed World for me.
@@pedazodetorpedo China and Taiwan are considered emerging markets by both the MSCI and FTSE indices and so is South Korea by MSCI. But arguably all three are actually developed markets. Or definitely will be in less than 50 years.
AFAIK there is no equivalent to VEU offered outside the US, that would make things much simpler.
Equal weight SPX ETF?
I showed this video to my wife. Specifically the part where you say you dont try to time the market. From 13:22
I saod to her "See , he doesn't try to get in and out, he keeps it simple with a global index. She said "Easy for him to not worry about a crash and not try to find the next Nvidia, hes already rich and doesn't care"
Great video, lots to think about.
Glad you think so! @MidnightSun009
Would have been great to consider factors like the inverted yield curve, bond yields, gold and crypto in this discussion as equities appear to be an anomoly
Hi Raman which global Equity fund, do you use please? Thank you.
He uses VHVG. He talks about this in the previous couple of videos. It is an accumulation global ETF.
@@audreysutherland4739 Thank you Audrey 👍😊
We are saving for a deposit for a house so are investing with that end goal in mind. We've done well of the last year +25% but have just sold all our stocks as we feel they will drop. We have moved some cash into gold which is doing well. I know time in the market is better than timing but we have a short term goal in mind. Once we have a house we will drip feed every month for 15 year plan.
Might be a bubble but, as long as the US sovereign debt mega-bubble keeps feeding it, will be ok.
nice chart, pulling the top 8 out of the rest...
that tells a different POV
Thanks Ramin, this is really informative! I have 2 questions.. 1. What about other asset classes to hedge against equities.. eg Gold or Bonds. 2. Do you know if it's possible to buy a put option on the S&P 500 for those UK investors? I feel this would also be a good way of hedging on a US bubble, but I don't have any experience on this. You help would be greatly appreciated.
Munge. That's a good word... I'm gonna munge that into my vocabulary
Good idea, after all it worked for Charlie Munger
Thanks for another informative and honest presentation. Your steady as she goes approach makes perfect sense as it would most of the time. Warren Buffet said its time in the market don't try to time the market but he also said don't overpay. Easier said than done using a global index fund but there are plenty of over priced companies outside of the super seven,if you have the time and inclination to research individual companies not a problem. I however have a mixed track record and the stress and time it takes is not reflected in the result to be honest,so it's going to be global index funds moving forward. Good luck everyone which ever path you take and hopefully the future will be bright.
The adds ruin your videos for me.
Thanks Ramin, timely and relevant as always. Much appreciated 😊
Glad it was helpful! @alexm7310
pop ! real AI unmasked as something decades down the line
Or more examples of AI fakery are surfaced. Or copyright legal problems with AI training.
POP! is the key word.
If there was an expanded war money would likely move into gold as most markets would be affected, both equities and bonds. Allocation should still be primarily based on your individual risk profile. Gold prices are currently already quite high especially in the last 6 months which might mean some investors are factoring in a crash of some sort. I would love to see China and the US get friendlier as this would really create a further global economic expansion.
Could the S&P be undervalued though due to the money2 supply which has rapidly gone up and devalued currency
That makes no sense, it is denominated in dollars. If the dollar depreciates, it should go up.
@@rjScubaSki I think that's what @XTORTION means - it's gone up because a dollar ain't what it used to be but still has more to run because you need more dollars to truly reflect the intrinsic value of many US stocks now. I think it's a fair point and could explain some of the recent run up.
@@rjScubaSki That's what she said.
@@rjScubaSki Yeh, thats my point..
@@XORTION How does it going up make it undervalued?
09:13 Ramin, what's your take on investing into G500 instead of SPXP?
Which global equity fund is it please Ramin
VHYG
Interesting, Is changing the portfolio balance not another form of timing the market. Changing more to bonds/gold/rest of world investments seems to me although sensible, contradictory to basic rule of not attempting to time the market.
I suppose biggest nugget for me, continue to drip feed into equities but would be intrigued what you would do with a cash pile while doing this?
Jeremy Grantham although often called market bubble to early, he's never been wrong though...and he's definitely not a permabear, he called Mar 09 bottom almost perfectly, and he almost urged people to not get scared and just buy stocks
Nobody is right 100% of the time, not even him.
I wonder where the huge amounts of capex that I suspect will come out of money market funds as rates reduce will be allocated ? That might provide extra stimulus, particularly in under valued markets.
Tech companies and a few others not realising the financial gains from AI. There are a few stories already of over-exageration (lies/misrepresentation?) of AI and what it can do right now. Without earning from AI it will drop prices quickly. Market needs to see real benefits which are scarce at the moment.
But a lump sum is like drip feeding over a 20 year investing horizon? Is t it always best to get the money in as soon as you can and anything else, would be a fool hardy attempt at timing the market? Thoughts please.
Thank you, awesome analysis as usual. I don't think that there will be an implosion...I do think that the S&P 500 will trade sideways for a few.years before another leg up, as to what that catalyst will be, possibly another AI moment through Quantum computing
Foist!
This is why I'm just going to invest in Cakebox and Michelmersh Brick Holdings.
Comparibg todays PE ratios with those of a decade ago is surely faulty? The world has moved on... Hasnt it?
I have VUAG and FWRG, this obviously makes me overweight America I just cant bring myself to sell the VUAG
The suggestion that war in Europe would trigger a stock crash is interesting, following a description of investing elsewhere than the US. You might say that war in Europe would encourage investors to move their money to the US, and cause a big rise in the US market if their was fighting or the possible threat of it in Europe.
From what I understood it works like this: a global index fund rebalances twice a year. So stocks that grow faster get sold off twice a year. And that extra money is spend in stocks that grew less. So you get sell high buy low automatically.
Am I wrong?
Yes
Hi Ramin, I’m looking to move an old work place pension into a SIPP so I can manage it myself and have more flexibility to invest in things other than funds. Do you have any recommendations. Any help is greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Maybe a correction is coming. It'll then be time to BACK UP THE TRUCK!
I'm about to drop a lump sum into a passive global tech tracker, which will create a 15% tech : 85% global tracker portfolio. Hmmm is this the correct approach, or is tech/US expensive for a reason?
Is it my imagination or is there a lot more negative news and pessimism seeping into the financial discourse since the Fed stood up and basically said we may get rate reductions at some point this year or maybe not? It's all a bit of a worry really!
The US jobs figures show the economy is doing very well .
Full time jobs are constantly falling
can you buy S&P500 ex mega 7?
Too wanted funds are world ex US and funds excl mega caps.
+ MSCI Pacific ex Japan and MSCI Canada and you have all parts of MSCI World.
Exactly my split👍
Is it just me or is the UK vanguard website not user friendly.
When do u think they'll create an app 😂 christ the website isn't intuitive
I like your vidos, but 3 ads hmmm… you will do ok wothout them, think casey nesitat
if the US market is going to pop then why put anything in ?
Because it’s only a forecast which may be wrong and the bubble is very restricted in scope to a handful of companies, with most S&P 500 not overly high on p/e index and potential for more growth
I've been hearing the same the last 3 years lol
EV, AI and supporting manufacturing materials technology hitting hard practical obstacles / limitations.
Munged. Describes the feeling inside head
Forward PE ratios are meaningless when the money printer goes brrrrrr. These old (yet very experienced) financial dinosaurs dont appear to understand the new world order of the money printer and hyper inflation. We have never been at 130% debt to GDP, do you think the government will QT anymore, and then add an election year...erm, QE to infinity and beyond!
The only good bit of advice and where I totally agree is to DCA any large sums, one I learnt the hard way!
The Fed don’t know what’s going on either. They’re all clowns. Just trend follow with a 10% stop. End.
People need to get comfortable with world politics being less stable but I do agree on AI. The hype alone of AI has become a cancer, even the most normal people slipping “AI” into a sentence (extra points for “generative AI”). So insidious for us all now, never mind enslaving humanity to the machines later! It really needs to deliver big.
The Freetrade extended advert - yawn.
Money printer go brrrrrrrrrr
Hmmmm. I'm sceptical that the US market is in a bubble. First of all, AI is a real technological breakthrough that will change the world in many ways, especially in the world of work. AI can technically replace millions of jobs worldwide, and this in itself is going to be worth untold hundreds of billions of dollars. It will be much bigger than the e-commerce boom of the late 90s/early 00s where pots of money were invested in loss making e-commerce companies that simply looked good on paper. And then the other breakthrough will be in electric motoring, with rapid charging and far higher capacity batteries will finally make electric motoring viable for everybody, not just the 'clean energy' nerds. In science there are many US pharma and biotech companies at the bleeding edge of medical research, with possible breakthroughs on cancer treatment, life extension and other things just around the corner. The US stock market is more dynamic than it has ever been and I see no end to it unless a nuclear war breaks out - something I regard as less than a 1% possibility. Also, interest rates are currently still a little high, and once inflation goes further down, interest rate reductions will cause more money to flow into the stock market. I see a bull market lasting possibly until 2026 or 2027. There may be a sharp drop thereafter, but those who have been investing for years will still have made big gains even after the inevitable drop.
I tend to agree with this sentiment. Tech has become so embedded in our every day lives, only a world wide catastrophy can disrupt its growth.
If I can earn 12% return in BTL i wont be betting on the stock market I am staying away for Equit Funds If a crash was to happen I would be buying trackers again
BTL are a headache, hence why I also invest in global funds
@@carlyndolphin It depends as if you run BTL as a business or a side line I am into Business and use a company i am 66 and i retired at 40 from the job hated so much itsgiven me everything i had ever wished for and the freedom thats priceless
Tesla is in the middle of a price war for their auto business, so it's maybe be premature to count them out after their first miss.
First miss 😂😂😂
@@Goady1000 They are an AI company in the same way that WeWork was a tech company LOL. The most overvalued car manufacturer in the world, even at it's current valuation.
@@MattMcQueen1 does thier Ai have the ability to access our world through its eyes and ears and interpret it?
I wanted this to give it more context.
The example provided showed that it can go through data but no fact checking.
Tesla AI requires data mining, inferencing and multiple fact checking every micro sec. That is exponentially much more advanced than answering questions on a chat box.
@@Goady1000 10 consecutive quarterly earnings where they beat expectations prior to finance rate hikes. That has nothing to do with it right?
@@breyrey7612 yh can't beat you sheep like the apple sheep
Not oly Donald Tusk, the British defense minister said the same.
Scaremongering rubbish. Nobody wants nuclear war - not the Russians, not the Chinese, not any other country.
We are all going to die the world is at an end. If the market crashes then its time to go shopping.
in few words. Get ready for the collapse men!
Oh no, not Freetrade again! As the new financial year is approaching (or is already here if you’re reading this later) loads of comparisons videos have popped up on UA-cam of different platforms to use, showing how bad Freetrade is compared to the others. I guess they must be paying you a lot as you keep pushing it.
That's sponsorship, I don't expect it's a lot but it helps him produce excellent content, so it's win, win.
@@george6977 yeah I love his content but like the others he should do a comparison video and be honest. I'm sure a lot will just sadly go with Freetrade as he comes across quite trustworthy
I don't necessarily disagree with freetrade being "great" but it's certainly not the worst broker in the world.
What's your main issues with it?
It's only a win win for those of us not stupid enough to go with Freetrade. Freetrade what a contradiction
@@GavinLawrence747check out the recent comparison videos on here they explain it much better than I can and go into greater detail
Is it me or is this like trying to count grains of sand contained in a thimbel when the reality is the thimbel is poised on the edge of a quicksand desert! Why is it in a bubble, what is it disguising and what purpose does it serve, its synthetic. A frankenstein economy. It is like watching people with a firehose trying to temper flames inside a volcano! The best advice is get out while you still can!
Uncle Jeremy was wrong since 2022 😂😂😂😂😂
I am invested in a global stock. I might sell 1/5th and hold as cash and drip feed back into the market over the next 12 to 24 months
Simple solution....DIVERSITY...you will get stung if you drop your basket of eggs
Markets are correlated, so when S&P 500 crashes, they all do. Diversify into bonds? If inflation takes off bonds are very risky. I prefer to accept the volatility of stocks, even 'a lost decade'.
Retail investors have flooded the market because of brokers like robinhood that offer commission free trade and ease of use.
More Americans (both in real terms and as a percentage of population) invest in stocks than any time in history.
Also, more investors from around the world invest in US stock because of how easy it is.
Of course p/e ratios will rise🤣🤣🤣
Jeremy Grantham is a joke. He’s been a bear forever, he’s always wrong, but because he sounds and looks like somebody who knows what they’re talking about he gets covered.
The bubble will pop when they realise AI is not as great as they are making out .
International cabal of stupid accountants attack incoming
The rally is being fueled by the wealth of the rich. We've been transferring greater and greater proportions of our wealth to the rich and they have been banking it and taking their 5% on it when the interest rates are high. When interest rates started to fall they started to invest more in assets. If interest rates fall further this year, as they are forecast to, this will keep the market going up. This is the Thomas Piketty, Gary Stevenson thesis.
Gary Stevenson 😂
@@chrisf1600 What do you think is happening?
What I would like to know is anyone concerned about the possibility of a Trump autocracy and the implications for foreign investors in the US market? Investors haven’t faired well in other autocracies. It’s not something I’ve seen discussion on in financial circles only political/law ones
Are you seriously concerned about this? You know Trump has been president before right?
@@alexanderrowe790 well, when you listen to people who knew him for many years like Michael Cohen, yeah.
@@rodbrown7284 Stop listening to the talking heads and actually think it through