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Your Analysis Patrick, indicates not just Corn for fuel should be questioned in the USA but also Corn for meat feed if that feeds 3 per acre compared to 15 + per acre. I think certain food should be taxed according to environmental impact and health impact when this happens humans as collective could have a chance to meet climate change target of 1.5 C rise by 2100 !
@@112deeps Why do you care? You'll be dead. Anyone asking for more taxes today because something maybe happens or not in 2100 don't deserve to live due to obvious stupidity and should not reproduce for the same reason.
Colors of the Ukrainian flag. Before WW2 Ukraine was known as the breadbasket of Europe. Now it's one of the major breadbasket of the world....or it was before Putin's war.
It would have been rude to poke fun at people literally starving to death. We like to complain about increased grocery prices in a developed world but it will be really bad for countries where people already don't have enough to eat.
@@vengefulspirit99 indeed. Was thinking the same. I live in Canada and I’m complaining about the food prices. But it’s just so much worse for many countries. It’s sad, really.
Yeah and I appreciate his measured, factual explanation. I knew it was getting bad but this really couches how severe things are. I am feeling extremely grateful to be in a stable country with access to fresh food right now.
This is incredibly valuable information. I read similar article on the economist with similar numbers as you've mentioned but had no idea about the railway in Ukraine being different. Which brings up several other elements that need attention. Thank you for the breakdown of geopolitical effect to the market.
I guess the point is that ukranian rails were made under ussr track standard that was different from western standard. It’s something you cannot overcome
Just remember folks, nothing radicalises populations like a bread queue. Even if the food market stabilises and world production gets on top of this quickly, I feel like we're going to see huge civil unrest globally in the last half of this year.
This is going to be a horrible year. I know a woman in Uganda and write to her often. She said that prices for some food items had already risen by 100% before the war in Ukraine began.
Yeah, I'm a year older than you. My youth is being wasted, and it feels terrible. One of the only two companies I've ever worked has shut down because of the lockdowns, and the other had huge layoffs when covid began. I'm now again looking for a job. Broke. The worst part is, it's only getting worse. The next 3 years at least are needed to recover from the coming food shortage.
@@NosyFella I refuse to believe that. I have an optimistic disposition by nature. As bleak as it feels right now, things will get better. Our society goes through highs and lows and this is undoubtedly a low. And it might stay low for a long time, maybe even for years, and it may get even lower, who knows. But we’ll rebound at some point. We’ve had some incredibly dark periods in our history, but we eventually came out the other end to wonderful and prosperous times. I have no reason to believe that this will be any different 🙂 Still, the struggle to stay optimistic at times can be very real
The issues with expecting technology to solve issues like food shortages and the issues with our food production systems is the people in control of technology in this society are often not interested in solving those problems
Matthew, you have identified over population as one issue the powers that be dont want to tackle to solve the problem. I can identify a few more, though Im not sold that the issue isnt over consumption and poor co ordinarion of resources rather than overpopulation. What I truly mean is the solutions needed to combat food shortages and other issues in our society will require decisions that go against the personal interests of those in power. And powerful people have never been one for even the smallest self sacrifice.
This is similar to the outbreak of WWI. Turkey closed the Bosporus which threatened to cut off Russian wheat from the world market. It was part of the logic behind the Gallipoli intervention.
Food shortages have been the catalyst for many crises throughout history. Many major world revolutions have been coincided with food shortages, like the French and Russian revolutions. People don't overthrow their own governments without good reason, and famine is a pretty good catalyst. Hence, why China has a grain reserve.
@@bercaio Yes. I guess this was the crisis that precipitated modern Turkey. No Gallipoli, no Atatürk. Then, as now, when empires collapse, people emerge who wish to take a murderous revenge against anyone who doesn't fit their idea of the nation state.
Just a couple of days after this video Malaysia announce a ban on chicken exports, to curb rising domestic chicken prices. Chicken prices had risen as a result of feed shortages coming from Ukraine. This is going to have dire consequences for Malaysian neighbours who depend on their export, particularly Singapore. The knock on effects of interrupted trade in a global system stretch everywhere, especially in respect to raw materials like minerals, fertiliser, chemicals, plastics, and feed.
Hey it's been over a month since you wrote this comment, did this disruption to chicken supply and distribution have the dire consequences you predicted? I ask because I haven't heard a peep about it. And surely something as dire as you've outlined would be newsworthy, right?
@@sleepytattoos It looks like the import price for chicken has almost doubled in Singapore this year, and there has been noticeable increases for other importers Malaysian chicken. There does seem to be an air of concern in the region over protein affordability, and this would play into that. Trade markets are doing what they are designed to which is recalibrating to the situation. Singapore is now talking about fast tracking chicken imports from Indonesia. This all has certainly been covered in the news if you have a look. There are other factors influencing the price, some domestic regarding agricultural industry practices. However the key point I was making about the knock on effect unexpected trade interruptions is playing out before us.
@@waziammm Source for your claim? A quick google of "Singapore chicken price" says the "Average retail price of whole chicken Singapore April 2019-April 2022. In April 2022, the average retail price for whole chicken in Singapore was 7.21 dollars, while in April 2019 the average retail price was 6.38 dollars." That's not nearly double, nor even close to it.
You took the issue very seriously and did not downplay the impact, but you still didn't resort to fear mongering and sensationalizing. I appreciate it. It's much better than Jake Tran's video title "So We're All Going to Starve"
@@dean_l33 The truth is americans and west will just about get through this crisis but indeed there are catastrophic events waiting for the rest of the world. This famine will bring about alot of regime changes and protests cause the poor will really starve
Its always weird to me to hear that Egypt imports wheat because historically they used to be the breadbasket of Europe. Like in the times of Roman empire yes I know very broad timeframe.
@@adamandsteve13 It's not just any regular agricultural land we're talking about here - these are the floodplains of the Nile. They were one of the initial 4 cradles of human civilization, along with the Euphrates valley, the Indus valley and the Yellow River valley.
@@Raphael4722 Nile doesn't flood nowadays, because of the dam build upstream, so it is not as fertile as it used to be. Also, water itself is reduced greatly, again, because of the dam build upstream by Ethiopia.
This is what we get for having food production far too centralized. With what we know about producing food now we need to start taking more of a local approach. The majority of the world depends far too much on petroleum to bring the food to them
@@ms-jl6dl the technology and know how exists to produce plenty of food even in a city environment. It's just not as cost effective compared to bringing in produced grown in third world countries shipped via globalism bull*hit. The problem of course is because it's cheaper there are no competitive alternatives. The elites can manufacturer a crisis when they damn well please. As they are so obviously doing now. We let the pendulum swing to far in the direction of affordability and completely ignored security
@@Tidalx Right, so. Congestion, and the overall cost of transportation, instead of focusing on several major trade locations for a specific good, with all of the required Infrastructure like Ports, Trains and Roads. Bulk transports of Wheat via Ships is more efficient, both cost wise, and environmentally wise. Plus add the fact, that the population is just...too high, for certain countries to provide for themselves, or the Arability isn't enough like in the UK, Japan and Egypt. They make up for this, at least in Japan by being a hub of Industry, same in the UK. They import basics and exports advance resources. Now. Lets say that the UK tries to switch over to making wheat, for it's own citizens it imports 2270000000 Kg of wheat. or 2270000 Tones, now Lets presume that 1kg is the same as 1m squared of land. 2270000000m squared of land or 2270000 Square Kilometres, the UK has 93400 Square Kilometres of Arable land. So that leaves -2176600 Square Kilometres. So even IF the UK used all of the ARABLE land in the country, it wouldn't make up for the Import Deficit of wheat. It just isn't viable. This is even worse for countries like Japan.
Yes, solutions like AI sorting of food, restructuring the entire US agriculture and putting techy sensors on cows. These are so inadequate that they only reveal the true gravity of the situation.
The synthetic vegetable oils that are added to everything are seriously unhealthy though. The increase in their prices should be a reason to stop using them.
@@Raphael4722 "synthetic vegetable oil" - you, my man, have no idea what are you talking about. How about reading some wiki articles on oils instead of those healthy living webs?
I was wondering when the problem would bubble up. In Southeast Asia several countries held emergency national security meetings over the war, but none of them mentioned it being about food security. I presume that's to avoid a local grocery panic. Indonesia banned export of palm oil and overall ASEAN countries are tightening their own exports of food, on top of India banning wheat exports.
It's more surprising it isn't a strategic priority for low income countries. I mean for us if a bag of flour costs £1 or £2 it's irrelevant but when people have no money food security becomes really important.
@@javelin1423 I read somewhere that India is only banning exports to companies. But will export on government to government basis. So some SEA countries that are friendly with India (and possibly with Russia) will get wheat but the issue here is at the local level. Distributors and retailers would definitely jump on the fear train and jack up prices.
Corn ethanol seems to be a consistent problem. It produces less fuel out than the fuel in, prices out other uses and now it's reducing grain available to feed the world. Not only this, but this is something that has been known for years!
Then left does not care they are zealots and the more pain they cause for a greedy undeserving America the better.As long as they don't suffer. Just look at their stance on criminals ,abortions ,illegals.
I always try to imagine what the West’s response would be to something like this, I doubt nestle is going to stop demanding resources to make kit Kats....
@@dulipub If you enjoy eating feed corn, I suppose you could utilize that corn for other purposes. But much of what we're feeding to cattle is not meant for humans and is on land that wouldn't support food crops for humans. And of course, the leather could be replaced with pleather, but that means ramping up PVC production, and PVC is a nasty plastic to work with - you end up breathing in phthalates, an endocrine disruptor. That doesn't affect the laptop class much, but it's hell for the poor sods working in the plastics factories. In the end, reducing cattle counts doesn't solve any problems, it just trades them for other problems.
Just bought (and started reading) your book "Statistics for the Trading Floor". It seems like a great intro to quant finance so far. Fun to read as well
On chapter 5 and its great so far. @Patrick Boyle is there anywhere where I can find solutions to the problems included in the book? Would be great to check my work. Thanks!
Finished the book and here is my review: It is a good book! I recommend knowing some background stats prior to reading. It does a fairly decent job of explaining many things at a surface level. Not too rigorous. My few cons with the book: - The chapters are not really in the most logical order after the first half of the book. For some reason Hypothesis testing is the second last chapter despite hypothesis testing being referenced in like 5 different chapters before hand. There are many instances where you are expected to understand what is being talked about despite not having learned that material in the book yet. Huge editorial oversight. - The later chapters are not only very surface level (not quite deep enough) but also does not have enough examples. I was left confused many times. This is weird because some of the basic easy concepts like coin flip probabilities have extensive examples, however complicated modelling such as ANOVA, cointegration, and OLS regression have little to no examples. I still feel like many of these topics will require me to go look in a stats textbook to even understand the base stuff because of the lack of examples. - No solutions to the problems. This is another pain in the behind that makes no sense in my opinion. Other than that, the book is very good for getting your feet wet in stats and modelling. Definitely not an all encompassing textbook, but a very nice intro primer. I do think the aforementioned cons of this book really do hold it back a lot, but it is still useful book nonetheless. That was my quick review. Great book and thanks Patrick for the read!
I think this is the first time I've ever watched a youtube embedded commercial and went signed up for the service. Nicely done! Great video on the coming food crisis too.
The people who simply complain and call for doom, end up doing nothing about it and never improve their life's. The people who see an issue and try to fix it are the ones who eventually get us out of a bad situation. Try not to be the former. Great video here as you seem to be the latter.
It's a relief to follow financial knowledge over fear mongering banging away everyday. Cause and effect seem completely removed from the modern conversation
thank you for spending time on the subject ... but you're missing several important details :) Ukraine is in the steppe region, same as Romania and Hungary and Southern Russia. The soil is so fertile because the area is very dry, had there been no winters it would be a desert like Kalahari. Production varies a lot from year to year: harsh winters damage crops, wet autumns prevent putting the seed in the soil properly (mud interfering with the machinery), cold springs reduce quality of the grain, dry summers reduce the quality further, wet summers reduce quality by preventing the grain to dry in time etc. The grain from this area is usually of not a very high quality except for maize which is usually better than what is harvested in the more wet and more Western parts of Europe. Most grain exported from the area is for fodder not for human consumption: if the weather conditions are not ideal the wheat does not have as much protein (that is gluten, makes bread tasty and springy) as wheat from France or Germany or even UK. Ukraine is competing with France, Germany and Romania and all the rest of the countries in EU, all having surpluses each year. Romania produced 34 million tons of grain (maize, wheat etc., wheat being 10 million tons) in 2021, more than France and Ukraine, but on average France is the greatest producer and exporter. Each year all those producers compete for exports to Egypt, and sometimes France gets mo0st of the contracts, sometimes Ukraine, or Romania ... even tiny Bulgaria is playing the game because grain production can be mechanized. Most of the countries in EU also have large areas that are not cultivated because there was no market for that much food. The hype over food prices is insane. Most countries in Europe have very large surpluses. US has very large surpluses and the only issue is shipping. Even with the Ukraine crisis we have food overproduction all over the world and yields are growing faster than population is growing. All countries in Europe have reserves and unsold stocks and most grains will last several years before spoiling. Wheat properly stored with the technology from 100 years ago could last 3 years or more, and the Soviet Union famine of the 1930s was caused by these reserves being confiscated and exported then a drought hitting the Southern part, and the Soviet Union having no credit (they reneged on the war time debts) and no money to buy enough food from outside. Africa is growing in the food trade. India is entering that market, and with more than grain, this year I saw Indian seedless grapes in supermarkets, replacing the South American and Italian grapes. They did not stop the exports because they don't have the stocks, but just in case before they know more about the next crop which is around a month away. Also EU has lots of spare capacity for producing nitrates. Romania mothballed and reopened that capacity several times after 2015 because world wide overproduction and electricity prices being kept high ... last time it happened in 2021. The problem is shipping not production ... and EU frogmarching itself into the middle ages without any second thought :( .
@@greenl7661 I would argue maize is the most important, these days even beer is made of maze :) but your point is very good wheat is important in Europe and maybe US, and white bread was the equivalent of "chicken every Sunday", that is high status food
Wow a valuable comment on youtube which added significantly to the content of the video while not personally attacking or critzing the creator. Thank you sir, and thank you Boyle, this is a great community.
It's been pointed out for well over a decade. I don't know who initially did though. I had converted a few of my cars to ethanol going back to 09, so in my research about the fuel I also encountered some studies and information calling it out as a waste of total energy when all inputs are combined. So it's not a new finding. It's pretty well known that it's done to subsidize the massive corn association, as they fight exclusively for corn based ethanol and don't put any effort into other easier to grow crops that don't even need fertilizer.
The phosphate in fertilizers can also be extracted from guano (bird and bat excrement). Since Morocco is known to have 80% of the world's phosphate reserves, that might become the next region of interest soon in an attempt to thwart a food crisis. The irony, of course, is that bats were the alleged culprit of the covid pandemic but have now come to the rescue.
Thank you for your efforts in preparing and communicating this information.With dire potential, a neceesary break from the impeccable wry humor which is a staple of this channel.
I haven’t watched yet but I just want to say how appreciative I am that you are making this video. I know you’ll have a measured take and will come with data
I love you. These videos are very data driven. You get the numbers and attach no political view to the situation, giving a very objective view of the economy.
Thank you for putting forth an accurate and data-oriented take on this issue, rather than resorting to bash the Indian Government, like the G7 did, for trying to protect food security of its own people.
Patrick should read the global dollar wheat export chart that flashed on the screen. Russia exports over $8billion, Ukraine $3b, and France $4b. Why so much diversion about China and India who export so little? A better survey of the global trade would have been more meaningful than a concentration on the Ukraine invasion.
@@davesprivatelounge Yes, good point. Re google/ "In financial year 2021, the share of food and allied products in major imports across India was 4.5 percent. This was an increase from the previous year's share of food products to major imports. For fiscal year 2022, a rise up to over 4.6 percent is expected.Mar 17, 2022
I was raised on a working farm and ranch and commonly heard my dad say we’re not planting this field this year. He would inform me the government was paying him to not plant that field for this particular year (1960-70’s). I never asked and he never advised if they just replaced his anticipated net profit in return for not planting, so I don’t know the specifics. He sold the farm section when I was in university and I never went back except for holidays. Thus, say without reservation, the US could greatly increase it’s production if it wanted and this American production is being manipulated as leaders see fit. So, if prices go up it will be because the government mismanaged the process.
Leaving fields fallow (and rotating crops) has been an important strategy for farmers since the dawn of history. It's less common now than it was 50 or 100 years ago, as farmers will often plant cover crops instead of leaving a field fallow, but the idea is that you need to give the land time to replenish nutrients. Otherwise, you end up with lower yields and less nutritious crops. There is most definitely a reason for it, the government isn't just paying farmers to sit idle because they hate everyone and want people to starve. Which really, ought to be obvious, if you think about it long enough to ask WHY that policy might exist.
I'm stocking up, esp on canned tuna. Combine this with the impending financial meltdown that's going to happen in the markets, and you've got a recipe for civil unrest the likes of which have never been seen in this country before.
I´m also stocking, but don´t rely too heavily on canned tuna, it contains quite a lot of mercury, so if you were to only eat that for a year, you´d probably poison yourself.
The Russian Empire deliberately made them wider so that in the event of an invasion, the enemy could not use the railway. and it worked, the Nazis could not properly supply the troops
Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, many fields have been mined. That will take many many years to clear so the land can be used again without risk. My opinion...I expect food prices to either remain this high or higher over the next 3 to 5 years.
I swear to god why in the ass do we still use anti-personnel mines... Why do people not fucking figure out that at the end of the war they don't just disappear. War or not, win or lose, they don't go away. They stay in the ground. They wait to be found.
@@moonshadow7057 US is going to have no problems with food and it will stay cheap in the US. The issues are places in the world were they do not have the ability. China imports almost 90% of its food.
@@bighands69 if price stays cheap it means there’s no shortage, it’s not like if Americans start save more food those food will be donated to Africa anyway
What's so important for people to understand is LESS WHEAT = LESS MEAT. This isn't about running out of bread, crackers, and cereal. Grains are mostly used to feed OUR FOOD. PROTEIN is a NECESSITY, unlike carbohydrates. We need grain to feed chickens, pigs, cows, and other sources of protein. This is all about moving us off of meat and onto reconstituted insect protein, and they'll say it's about saving the environment.
Last time the Middle East suffered from northern hemisphere grain export shortages, we got the Arab Spring.... I'll be watching Lebanon very closely this year
My country's govt (Serbia) is contemplating stopping food exports in general, which would affect most of the neighboring countries.. If Hungary decides to do so as well it's gonna be catastrophic.
And for which country does yours export anything? Certainly not to Kosovo and Bosna and Herzegovina, given that you tried to wipe them off the face of the earth.
Serbia was betrayed and repeatedly sttabed in the back by the rest of Europe. So it is legitimate now that Serbia stops food exports to that same Europe who pushed so hard to destroy Yugoslavia.
The initial promise made about growing crops for Ethanol was, that only marginal land was going to be used. On that basis, all is good but the reality has turned out bad.
Thank you for your input. I’ve heard that things will be horrible and millions will starve. You are more level headed than almost everyone I have heard.
@@nimernimer that is assuming that there will be no adaptations. There will be a short term crunch and I personally have put back 2 months worth of calories just in my long term storage. I’m stocking up but it is good to hear that a more neutral voice instead of the “everyone is going to die” crowd.
@@mro2352 name a single project being even discussed to augment the nitrates shortage. These plants require multi year planning not to mention the input resources have to come from somewhere. If you can afford to stock calories then your not going to be part of the famine. This will decimate africa.
@@nimernimer I understand. There is no talk now because no one is currently short what is normal. This will only be discussed once people are starving and the Biden administration sure isn’t going to do much. In fact he is causing more problems because of the rejection of increased gas leases and the anti fossil fuels agenda is forcing the US to burn its own food supply in the way of ethanol and in fact is talking of increasing the amount of ethanol allowed in gas by 5%. I also agree that this will be absolutely devastating to the third world. I’m not trying to make light of it. My main point is that this is a problem and to have Patrick address it as an actual problem as he seems to be measured and level headed shows how bad things in the back ground are.
@@bighands69 A lot of angry people in the "everywhere else", people who will lose family during these times aka with nothing to lose, will come a-knocking in the West in the near future. And in an ironic twist, it will be western films like Joker, The Dark Knight, The Batman and Fight Club that would inspire them to just, "..watch the world burn." and "stick it to the man" i.e. the west. If the West doesn't want to do anything now like stop the war in Ukraine and assist these smaller, vulnerable nations navigate their food shortages and economic troubles then it better keep close eye on those nuke storage. You won't know what vengeful, angry people are capable of doing.
US , Canada and France are among the top wheat exporters .... Those countries should play a positive role in releasing their reserves to stabilise wheat prices for next two years ...
Well one thing you can be pretty sure of: developed countries will never see periods of significant deflation ever again. Central bankers hate deflation far more than they dislike inflation. Long term nominal bonds at low interest rates hedge outcomes that central bankers will never allow to happen.
Thank you for bring attention to this Patrick. This is going to be a HUGE problem this fall/winter. A mass starvation event is on the way. The poorest countries will suffer most. 😬
On top of worsting droughts in the US, and ocean salting farms in Italy with less Alp snow available to melt. Everything that can go wrong, is going wrong, all at once.
@@bonzibuddy6852 That’s a discussion best kept off the comment section, haha. Just to add oil on the fire ur trying to start, I’ll mention Bill Gates’ contribution to the population boom in the poor counties you’re thinking about 😇
@@louisvl10 it's true though. why have kids that you can't feed. same with poor people in the us who have many kids that they can't feed and live off of the government. your response is ignorant
So a lot of agricultural production might move to countries like America and Canada. It may be both good and in fact necessary to support investment in agriculture to keep stability in the west. No matter what, the situation looks okay for developed nations, and horrific for those least developed. Seems like a change in the world order is brewing.
the problem is production has lag time, there won't be supply in time for the coming crisis, there will be food shortages like never before seen in our lifetimes, that combined with shortages in diesel and fertiliser means it could be a few years before we even have the production needed, developing countries are going to be completely decimated
You can't just completely overhaul an industry and start growing food in the West, producing anything is not that simple or fast. It will be years minimum and in the short term, massive food shortages (indeed worse in developing countries) but will still be seen in Western countries because of that lag time. Even if we started massively producing in the US right this second (which isn't possible, both due to the fact that food grows based on seasons and that it takes planning and $$$ to do it), much of that food would not be ready for a year or two. And.. we're not going to get on it nearly that fast, in fact, we're producing *less* than normal. There will surely be shortages we have not seen in our lifetimes, how bad exactly, we can't tell.
Josh Segeleon the west is already capable of growing a surplus. The problem is that farmers are being paid by corporation to burn it to keep up the high prices on food
@@jsedge2473 The US already grows huge stores of food. The federal government buys a lot of agriculture and often puts it in warehouses where they go bad. On top of that, unlike the developing world, America has a much more stable and efficient domestic production chain, along with significant trade between us, Canada, and Mexico. Even if things were at the worst, the US has 40% of its population as obese and 60% is estimated to be overweight. America will be fine. So chill with the black pills before you OD.
You may or may not realize that a lot of the current food price increases we are seeing in the US are the work of local and nation wide retail grocers. You make it worse by implying that we should get used to it because underlying conditions justify the rise. I know this for a fact because I shop assiduously for food in Delray Beach FL and in Smithtown NY and see items like beets offered from prices varying from 33 to 99 cents per pound or chicken leg quarters offered from $4.80 to $8.90 for a 10 pound bag. The cheaper bag was more neatly cut and the quarters were all the same size. I see milk offered at $1.65 for 1 gallon of 1% milk at ALDI Lake Grove and at $4+ at Stop and Shop Smithtown. I see eggs varying in price from $2 for a dozen large, which is by no means cheap (was 60 cents in November) to $3. Whatever the underlying conditions may be, we are presently seeing simple price gouging for lagniappe.
It won't get boring at least. Not that is has been last century. But it won't get boring and not that deadly yet so it's a good show for the most part.
India did not banned wheat exports , its just that private players can't export now. Countries can still get indian wheat by asking on government level , and the previous orders will be fulfilled soon. this ban is to ensure no hoarding by countries like china and other private players who will hoard frains and will release when price will rise.
Billionaires bought a lot of farmland in the last decades. In the end they own everything, from crop to politicians to information. Looking at the supermarkets in my country we feed everybody with or without fertilizers, with or without Ukraine or Russia.
Hmmm. Wheat shortages means no more bread, cake, biscuits, spaghetti, noodles, breakfast cereal... But there will still be yam, rice, Irish potatoes, sweet potatoes, beans, cocoyam, acha, meat, fish, palm oil... I'm seeing a healthier lifestyle.
One piece of good news, or at least less bad news, is that reportedly Ukrainian farmers have mostly been able to plant their spring crops. It was expected that the war would have a major impact on this but apparently it is going much better than anticipated.
The whole corn-to-ethanol thing is more luxury than necessity. Meaning, we do it because we can. In a crunch, we can turn it off and point the corn to human consumption. Environmentalists will stfu when they have a mouth full of sandwich.
13:21 Yes it is indeed less calories per acre, but more micronutrient dense, cow and pork are way higher in micronutrient content that crops, micronutrient content of food is extremely important not just the calories. You can have fat people who are still malnourished because of eating high caloric foods but not very nutrient dense (like corn for example).
Field corn grown in US, however, needs to be processed to be used as food. Those calories taste like crap and have low nutritional value. Referring to the calories per acre point made.
You are right corn has poor nutritional value but when turned to masa and used for tortillas, tacos, tomales, and nachos its not so bad for taste 😉 I read of terrible stories from Haiti during their food crisis where mothers were baking biscuits made from a mixture of mud and sugar for their children. I can't comprehend what that must have been like.
One thing to remember is that cows alone eat and consume over 20x more food than the entire human population. The agricultural Industry consumes around 40x more food than the entire human population. The "food shortages" is deliberated power games. Imo.
Patrick's description of the bare quantitative bones of western food production is simply breathtaking. We shall see how the political parties in the first world countries rise (or fail to rise) to this emerging reality, and how they respond to the truly needy. In the U.S. it will lead to blame of the current administration for what is actually a worldwide phenomenon.. The entrenched agribusiness subsidy for corn production coupled with the legislated demand for fuel augmentation for US's love of inefficient vehicles will put tremendous pressure on the incumbent, even though subsidies have been largely promoted by conservative agribusiness lobbyists. Sobering to realize that these large corporations can essentially determine that it is better to feed less people per acre in return for increased profit. Thank you Patrick for pointing that out.
@@robc8892 yes he is and he also taught me. But all investment professionals have diverse outlooks and opinions. Some miss key factors and the wider perspectives. I believe he covered them well, especially in terms of the bigger picture.
I live in Central Wisconsin and the farmers here are feeling all of those problems. Let's hope on a good rain supply. In the west , Colorado, Wyoming ,Nebraska and Kansas are experiencing a multi year draught. Oh hurricane season is coming. A good hurricane hitting the gulf coast drives up oil prices.
Canada literally have the ability to produce more of every single commodity in short supply at the moment. problem is our shithead goverment and its associated systems are so slow to react to anything happening that we will let this opportunity evaporate.
The shithead conservatives would be just as slow, since the magic wands they all believe in do not exist, lmao. Conservative government is usually catastrophic, with most runaway deficit situations in the last 40 or 50 years being triggered by Conservative policies. The Liberals have to come in afterwards to clean up the dumpster fires that previous Conservative administrations left behind. Conservative general incompetence is mind boggling.
@@tehepicduck101 Nothing. He is not interested in anything constructive actually being done, he is more interested in stopping abortion, letting everyone play with guns and putting more people in jail for longer. That is about the extent of the typical Conservative mentality. The are not really interested in good government or growing the economy, those things are just covers they pay lip service to in order to pursue batshit crazy social policies, which is what they are really about.
2 Esdras 15:1-9 "Behold, speak thou in the ears of my people the words of prophecy, which I will put in thy mouth, saith the Lord: And cause them to be written in paper: for they are faithful and true. Fear not the imaginations against thee, let not the incredulity of them trouble thee, that speak against thee. For all the unfaithful shall die in their unfaithfulness. Behold, saith the Lord, I will bring plagues upon the world; the sword, famine, death, and destruction. For wickedness hath exceedingly polluted the whole earth, and their hurtful works are fulfilled. Therefore saith the Lord, I will hold my tongue no more as touching their wickedness, which they profanely commit, neither will I suffer them in those things, in which they wickedly exercise themselves: behold, the innocent and righteous blood crieth unto me, and the souls of the just complain continually. And therefore, saith the Lord, I will surely avenge them, and receive unto me all the innocent blood from among them."
Do you never stop to think though, why is a country that's frozen half the year a prolific exporter of food but countries with warmer climates and higher rainfall are importing food? Something is very wrong here.
Except that it takes a lot of willpower to make use of that hedge. Overweight people are going to be protesting food prices just as much as skinny people.
@@gregwilvert I might be crying for a doughnut but yall thin pepole will have starved long before that. After the apocalypse the formerly fat will rule the world! In the future thin people will be remembered like the dinosaurs are now. I can already see it. I can see Utopia.
The issue with using more tech in farming is that the infructructer is not there... Try getting cell service anywhere between the Mississippi and the Rocky's.
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No money with me sorry 🙇🏻
Your Analysis Patrick, indicates not just Corn for fuel should be questioned in the USA but also Corn for meat feed if that feeds 3 per acre compared to 15 + per acre. I think certain food should be taxed according to environmental impact and health impact when this happens humans as collective could have a chance to meet climate change target of 1.5 C rise by 2100 !
@@112deeps Why do you care? You'll be dead. Anyone asking for more taxes today because something maybe happens or not in 2100 don't deserve to live due to obvious stupidity and should not reproduce for the same reason.
We are in Russia and our country was captured by schizofascists.
Colors of the Ukrainian flag.
Before WW2 Ukraine was known as the breadbasket of Europe.
Now it's one of the major breadbasket of the world....or it was before Putin's war.
First video in a while without the trademark wit and sarcasm. Speaks to the severity of the situation
It would have been rude to poke fun at people literally starving to death. We like to complain about increased grocery prices in a developed world but it will be really bad for countries where people already don't have enough to eat.
@@vengefulspirit99 indeed. Was thinking the same. I live in Canada and I’m complaining about the food prices. But it’s just so much worse for many countries. It’s sad, really.
Just one tiny little chuckle at the "typically understated Canadian couple".
Yeah and I appreciate his measured, factual explanation. I knew it was getting bad but this really couches how severe things are. I am feeling extremely grateful to be in a stable country with access to fresh food right now.
I wonder if you made the connection of the photo of Elon Musk shown at exactly the moment he mentioned AI..I fund that rather amusing
This is incredibly valuable information. I read similar article on the economist with similar numbers as you've mentioned but had no idea about the railway in Ukraine being different. Which brings up several other elements that need attention. Thank you for the breakdown of geopolitical effect to the market.
Glad it was helpful!
I guess the point is that ukranian rails were made under ussr track standard that was different from western standard. It’s something you cannot overcome
@@rodion86 Yup. Actually passenger trains crossing from Poland to Belarus have their wheels replaced which takes a couple of hours each time.
@@rodion86 Russia was afraid of Western Europe ( namely NATO country members) invading them via rail.
Look who’s talking...
@@paulsz6194 hmm make sense every hour is precious but with that there is ni threat to Europe either as Rusia cannot fight where it rails cannot reach
Just remember folks, nothing radicalises populations like a bread queue.
Even if the food market stabilises and world production gets on top of this quickly, I feel like we're going to see huge civil unrest globally in the last half of this year.
@Artur Ararat надейся))
Let them eat cake.
I 100% agree, as a layperson, I would be surprised if we didnt see some sort of worldwide chaos because of this
@Artur Ararat then it is time for the third world to destroy the first world.
@@Vid_Master This plus high gas prices, classic chaos spell.
This is going to be a horrible year. I know a woman in Uganda and write to her often. She said that prices for some food items had already risen by 100% before the war in Ukraine began.
That is incredibly sad to hear.
Overpopulation will be addressed real soon.
Oh Lord
@@bloodbarage Overpopulation.... to the point where China has many ghost cities, and Mongolia has more horses than people.
@@bloodbarage Right. Easy to say when you are conveniently, comfortably out of reach of the detriment of such an event.
I was 24 when COVID first started, now I’m turning 27 soon. It feels like I’m gonna be 40 by the time the world is somewhat stable and normal again 😢
unfortunately the world will only get more and more unstable as climate change gets worse :(
Yeah, I'm a year older than you. My youth is being wasted, and it feels terrible.
One of the only two companies I've ever worked has shut down because of the lockdowns, and the other had huge layoffs when covid began.
I'm now again looking for a job. Broke.
The worst part is, it's only getting worse. The next 3 years at least are needed to recover from the coming food shortage.
The world today is as normal as it will be for the rest of our lives
@@NosyFella I refuse to believe that. I have an optimistic disposition by nature. As bleak as it feels right now, things will get better. Our society goes through highs and lows and this is undoubtedly a low. And it might stay low for a long time, maybe even for years, and it may get even lower, who knows. But we’ll rebound at some point. We’ve had some incredibly dark periods in our history, but we eventually came out the other end to wonderful and prosperous times. I have no reason to believe that this will be any different 🙂
Still, the struggle to stay optimistic at times can be very real
@@Dreadlock1227 The current times are probably one of the best compared to most of human history. The world could easily get much, much worse.
The issues with expecting technology to solve issues like food shortages and the issues with our food production systems is the people in control of technology in this society are often not interested in solving those problems
It's much more profitable to remedy the paper cuts of rich people.
@matthew tong. I think we might be approaching the same reality from different angles. I think our points might be complimentary
Matthew, you have identified over population as one issue the powers that be dont want to tackle to solve the problem. I can identify a few more, though Im not sold that the issue isnt over consumption and poor co ordinarion of resources rather than overpopulation. What I truly mean is the solutions needed to combat food shortages and other issues in our society will require decisions that go against the personal interests of those in power. And powerful people have never been one for even the smallest self sacrifice.
I dont think i did actually, the world isnt as homogenous as it appears
Seemingly very different effects depending on the person from my observations during this here pandemic 🤪
Thank you for a clear and easily understandable explanation. Appreciated, I have English as my second language.
This is similar to the outbreak of WWI. Turkey closed the Bosporus which threatened to cut off Russian wheat from the world market. It was part of the logic behind the Gallipoli intervention.
Mmm, I remember that intervention went swimmingly
@@orueom7720 Yes, Winston was right on target with his military goals with that one. Gallipoli came after the mess he created if I'm not mistaken.
Food shortages have been the catalyst for many crises throughout history. Many major world revolutions have been coincided with food shortages, like the French and Russian revolutions. People don't overthrow their own governments without good reason, and famine is a pretty good catalyst. Hence, why China has a grain reserve.
That's not Turkey, that's the Ottoman Empire.
@@bercaio Yes. I guess this was the crisis that precipitated modern Turkey. No Gallipoli, no Atatürk. Then, as now, when empires collapse, people emerge who wish to take a murderous revenge against anyone who doesn't fit their idea of the nation state.
Just a couple of days after this video Malaysia announce a ban on chicken exports, to curb rising domestic chicken prices. Chicken prices had risen as a result of feed shortages coming from Ukraine. This is going to have dire consequences for Malaysian neighbours who depend on their export, particularly Singapore.
The knock on effects of interrupted trade in a global system stretch everywhere, especially in respect to raw materials like minerals, fertiliser, chemicals, plastics, and feed.
Hey it's been over a month since you wrote this comment, did this disruption to chicken supply and distribution have the dire consequences you predicted? I ask because I haven't heard a peep about it. And surely something as dire as you've outlined would be newsworthy, right?
@@sleepytattoos It looks like the import price for chicken has almost doubled in Singapore this year, and there has been noticeable increases for other importers Malaysian chicken. There does seem to be an air of concern in the region over protein affordability, and this would play into that. Trade markets are doing what they are designed to which is recalibrating to the situation. Singapore is now talking about fast tracking chicken imports from Indonesia. This all has certainly been covered in the news if you have a look.
There are other factors influencing the price, some domestic regarding agricultural industry practices. However the key point I was making about the knock on effect unexpected trade interruptions is playing out before us.
@@waziammm Source for your claim? A quick google of "Singapore chicken price" says the "Average retail price of whole chicken Singapore April 2019-April 2022. In April 2022, the average retail price for whole chicken in Singapore was 7.21 dollars, while in April 2019 the average retail price was 6.38 dollars." That's not nearly double, nor even close to it.
You took the issue very seriously and did not downplay the impact, but you still didn't resort to fear mongering and sensationalizing. I appreciate it. It's much better than Jake Tran's video title "So We're All Going to Starve"
Jake Tran videos fall into the problem of addressing a serious issue of not so seriously sometime underselling it others time overblowing it.
I wonder what Jake used his video to sell. His videos are just an elaborate advert these days.
@@dean_l33 The truth is americans and west will just about get through this crisis but indeed there are catastrophic events waiting for the rest of the world. This famine will bring about alot of regime changes and protests cause the poor will really starve
@Quentin Styger I agree it is getting abit out of hand now.
@Quentin Styger that makes two of us
The live chat during the premiere was so much fun
Lovely to see you here
Just lovely 😊
Aw man you were there? I'm sad I missed it 😭 Sounds awesome
Is that on ur channel? I hadn’t notice.
Pls do a video on Sovereign Wealth Funds ! Eg,Temeask ?
This is spot on from a systems dynamic perspective. Problems in the food supply will destabilize at risk countries, leading to a much wider impact
No he isn't
@@cityofjoy8830 any further info :?
Its always weird to me to hear that Egypt imports wheat because historically they used to be the breadbasket of Europe. Like in the times of Roman empire yes I know very broad timeframe.
It was cooler down there back in the day
Population of Egypt is 90 million people. Agricultural land is only 4% of their territory.
@@adamandsteve13 It's not just any regular agricultural land we're talking about here - these are the floodplains of the Nile. They were one of the initial 4 cradles of human civilization, along with the Euphrates valley, the Indus valley and the Yellow River valley.
@@Raphael4722 Nile doesn't flood nowadays, because of the dam build upstream, so it is not as fertile as it used to be. Also, water itself is reduced greatly, again, because of the dam build upstream by Ethiopia.
This is what we get for having food production far too centralized. With what we know about producing food now we need to start taking more of a local approach. The majority of the world depends far too much on petroleum to bring the food to them
But... muh globalization!
How would you bring "local" foods to the cities? Horse and carriage?
@@ms-jl6dl why not?
@@ms-jl6dl the technology and know how exists to produce plenty of food even in a city environment. It's just not as cost effective compared to bringing in produced grown in third world countries shipped via globalism bull*hit. The problem of course is because it's cheaper there are no competitive alternatives. The elites can manufacturer a crisis when they damn well please. As they are so obviously doing now. We let the pendulum swing to far in the direction of affordability and completely ignored security
@@Tidalx Right, so. Congestion, and the overall cost of transportation, instead of focusing on several major trade locations for a specific good, with all of the required Infrastructure like Ports, Trains and Roads. Bulk transports of Wheat via Ships is more efficient, both cost wise, and environmentally wise. Plus add the fact, that the population is just...too high, for certain countries to provide for themselves, or the Arability isn't enough like in the UK, Japan and Egypt. They make up for this, at least in Japan by being a hub of Industry, same in the UK. They import basics and exports advance resources. Now. Lets say that the UK tries to switch over to making wheat, for it's own citizens it imports 2270000000 Kg of wheat. or 2270000 Tones, now Lets presume that 1kg is the same as 1m squared of land. 2270000000m squared of land or 2270000 Square Kilometres, the UK has 93400 Square Kilometres of Arable land. So that leaves -2176600 Square Kilometres. So even IF the UK used all of the ARABLE land in the country, it wouldn't make up for the Import Deficit of wheat. It just isn't viable. This is even worse for countries like Japan.
Normally everyone just lists all the issues we are facing and no one suggests possible solutions. Thanks for adding that at the end
Ain’t that just the way she goes?
Welcome to economic analysis 101 lol
Yes, solutions like AI sorting of food, restructuring the entire US agriculture and putting techy sensors on cows. These are so inadequate that they only reveal the true gravity of the situation.
It's reports like this that really show the true value of your channel.
Love the quality of this information
Thanks for answering why there was no sunflower oil in my supermarket. Never thought that the war in Ukraine would impact me in such a weird way
The synthetic vegetable oils that are added to everything are seriously unhealthy though. The increase in their prices should be a reason to stop using them.
It's an omega 6 and causes inflammation if not in the proper ratio.
@@Raphael4722 "synthetic vegetable oil" - you, my man, have no idea what are you talking about. How about reading some wiki articles on oils instead of those healthy living webs?
Top quality material, as usual. Thank you.
I was wondering when the problem would bubble up. In Southeast Asia several countries held emergency national security meetings over the war, but none of them mentioned it being about food security. I presume that's to avoid a local grocery panic. Indonesia banned export of palm oil and overall ASEAN countries are tightening their own exports of food, on top of India banning wheat exports.
It's more surprising it isn't a strategic priority for low income countries. I mean for us if a bag of flour costs £1 or £2 it's irrelevant but when people have no money food security becomes really important.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but IIRC, didn't India stopped wheat export as well? I wonder if things are gonna snowball in SEA
@@javelin1423 I read somewhere that India is only banning exports to companies. But will export on government to government basis. So some SEA countries that are friendly with India (and possibly with Russia) will get wheat but the issue here is at the local level. Distributors and retailers would definitely jump on the fear train and jack up prices.
Corn ethanol seems to be a consistent problem. It produces less fuel out than the fuel in, prices out other uses and now it's reducing grain available to feed the world. Not only this, but this is something that has been known for years!
Yes, true, but government regulations on gasoline demand that ethanol be used there, even though it produces less BTU than gasoline.
US subsidies on corn completely fucks the whole of South and Meso America
Then left does not care they are zealots and the more pain they cause for a greedy undeserving America the better.As long as they don't suffer. Just look at their stance on criminals ,abortions ,illegals.
Ethanol is a scam, someone's still making money on it.
@@ahmataevo Yet another example of our continuing plutocracy.
I always try to imagine what the West’s response would be to something like this, I doubt nestle is going to stop demanding resources to make kit Kats....
Also ethonol and beef are huge resources hogs that use a lot of basic resources(grain) to output minimal luxury goods.
Nestle will even suck water out of drought stricken places to fill their water bottles, lowering the water table even further
@@dulipub If you enjoy eating feed corn, I suppose you could utilize that corn for other purposes. But much of what we're feeding to cattle is not meant for humans and is on land that wouldn't support food crops for humans. And of course, the leather could be replaced with pleather, but that means ramping up PVC production, and PVC is a nasty plastic to work with - you end up breathing in phthalates, an endocrine disruptor. That doesn't affect the laptop class much, but it's hell for the poor sods working in the plastics factories. In the end, reducing cattle counts doesn't solve any problems, it just trades them for other problems.
Just bought (and started reading) your book "Statistics for the Trading Floor". It seems like a great intro to quant finance so far. Fun to read as well
Give us a review afterwards. Thanks
@@curtisalex456 Same, replying to get notifed
Likewise, keen to hear your thoughts on it!
On chapter 5 and its great so far. @Patrick Boyle is there anywhere where I can find solutions to the problems included in the book? Would be great to check my work. Thanks!
Finished the book and here is my review:
It is a good book! I recommend knowing some background stats prior to reading. It does a fairly decent job of explaining many things at a surface level. Not too rigorous.
My few cons with the book:
- The chapters are not really in the most logical order after the first half of the book. For some reason Hypothesis testing is the second last chapter despite hypothesis testing being referenced in like 5 different chapters before hand. There are many instances where you are expected to understand what is being talked about despite not having learned that material in the book yet. Huge editorial oversight.
- The later chapters are not only very surface level (not quite deep enough) but also does not have enough examples. I was left confused many times. This is weird because some of the basic easy concepts like coin flip probabilities have extensive examples, however complicated modelling such as ANOVA, cointegration, and OLS regression have little to no examples. I still feel like many of these topics will require me to go look in a stats textbook to even understand the base stuff because of the lack of examples.
- No solutions to the problems. This is another pain in the behind that makes no sense in my opinion.
Other than that, the book is very good for getting your feet wet in stats and modelling. Definitely not an all encompassing textbook, but a very nice intro primer. I do think the aforementioned cons of this book really do hold it back a lot, but it is still useful book nonetheless.
That was my quick review. Great book and thanks Patrick for the read!
I think this is the first time I've ever watched a youtube embedded commercial and went signed up for the service. Nicely done! Great video on the coming food crisis too.
The people who simply complain and call for doom, end up doing nothing about it and never improve their life's. The people who see an issue and try to fix it are the ones who eventually get us out of a bad situation. Try not to be the former. Great video here as you seem to be the latter.
I mean what could an ordinary citizen do to fix global food shortage?
@@tpeterson9140 its not much but reducing meat/dairy consumption to signal markets to change towards more sustainable practices is a start
Excellent research and I will be buying survival food just in case. Thanks!
Glad it was helpful!
It's a relief to follow financial knowledge over fear mongering banging away everyday. Cause and effect seem completely removed from the modern conversation
Stupid leading the stupid.
thank you for spending time on the subject ... but you're missing several important details :)
Ukraine is in the steppe region, same as Romania and Hungary and Southern Russia. The soil is so fertile because the area is very dry, had there been no winters it would be a desert like Kalahari. Production varies a lot from year to year: harsh winters damage crops, wet autumns prevent putting the seed in the soil properly (mud interfering with the machinery), cold springs reduce quality of the grain, dry summers reduce the quality further, wet summers reduce quality by preventing the grain to dry in time etc. The grain from this area is usually of not a very high quality except for maize which is usually better than what is harvested in the more wet and more Western parts of Europe. Most grain exported from the area is for fodder not for human consumption: if the weather conditions are not ideal the wheat does not have as much protein (that is gluten, makes bread tasty and springy) as wheat from France or Germany or even UK.
Ukraine is competing with France, Germany and Romania and all the rest of the countries in EU, all having surpluses each year. Romania produced 34 million tons of grain (maize, wheat etc., wheat being 10 million tons) in 2021, more than France and Ukraine, but on average France is the greatest producer and exporter. Each year all those producers compete for exports to Egypt, and sometimes France gets mo0st of the contracts, sometimes Ukraine, or Romania ... even tiny Bulgaria is playing the game because grain production can be mechanized. Most of the countries in EU also have large areas that are not cultivated because there was no market for that much food.
The hype over food prices is insane. Most countries in Europe have very large surpluses. US has very large surpluses and the only issue is shipping. Even with the Ukraine crisis we have food overproduction all over the world and yields are growing faster than population is growing.
All countries in Europe have reserves and unsold stocks and most grains will last several years before spoiling. Wheat properly stored with the technology from 100 years ago could last 3 years or more, and the Soviet Union famine of the 1930s was caused by these reserves being confiscated and exported then a drought hitting the Southern part, and the Soviet Union having no credit (they reneged on the war time debts) and no money to buy enough food from outside.
Africa is growing in the food trade. India is entering that market, and with more than grain, this year I saw Indian seedless grapes in supermarkets, replacing the South American and Italian grapes. They did not stop the exports because they don't have the stocks, but just in case before they know more about the next crop which is around a month away.
Also EU has lots of spare capacity for producing nitrates. Romania mothballed and reopened that capacity several times after 2015 because world wide overproduction and electricity prices being kept high ... last time it happened in 2021. The problem is shipping not production ... and EU frogmarching itself into the middle ages without any second thought :( .
Thank you for your input. Much appreciated.
I'd like to add that wheat is not world's most important grain either, it's rice. Greatly said, thank you.
@@greenl7661 I would argue maize is the most important, these days even beer is made of maze :) but your point is very good
wheat is important in Europe and maybe US, and white bread was the equivalent of "chicken every Sunday", that is high status food
Wow a valuable comment on youtube which added significantly to the content of the video while not personally attacking or critzing the creator. Thank you sir, and thank you Boyle, this is a great community.
@@greenl7661 however, it would be for certain countries, especially Africa.
Just want to say that Charlie Munger pointed out the danger of ethanol.
It's been pointed out for well over a decade. I don't know who initially did though.
I had converted a few of my cars to ethanol going back to 09, so in my research about the fuel I also encountered some studies and information calling it out as a waste of total energy when all inputs are combined. So it's not a new finding. It's pretty well known that it's done to subsidize the massive corn association, as they fight exclusively for corn based ethanol and don't put any effort into other easier to grow crops that don't even need fertilizer.
The phosphate in fertilizers can also be extracted from guano (bird and bat excrement). Since Morocco is known to have 80% of the world's phosphate reserves, that might become the next region of interest soon in an attempt to thwart a food crisis. The irony, of course, is that bats were the alleged culprit of the covid pandemic but have now come to the rescue.
As a farmer it's hard to imagine the supply from bats etc would be significant
80%!? Then time to bring democracy to Morocco.
There're a bad disputed between Morroco vs Algeria up coming future. It might escalate to wars.
Good information, except bats didn't cause the virus, it was created in a lab.
@@MrCODEmaster999 *Kissenger intensifies*
In the Ukraine there is a WAR now, not so called conflict. Please don't underestimate the things are happening.
Thank you for your efforts in preparing and communicating this information.With dire potential, a neceesary break from the impeccable wry humor which is a staple of this channel.
I've been buying a little extra dry food to store every week for months.
I haven’t watched yet but I just want to say how appreciative I am that you are making this video. I know you’ll have a measured take and will come with data
Very much enjoy your format. Thanks mate. Brilliant material without the pomp. Be great King!
I love you. These videos are very data driven. You get the numbers and attach no political view to the situation, giving a very objective view of the economy.
Thank you for putting forth an accurate and data-oriented take on this issue, rather than resorting to bash the Indian Government, like the G7 did, for trying to protect food security of its own people.
Большое спасибо вам за такую великую проделанную работу. Дай бог вам здоровья и миру мир.
I fear that more countries will drop out as exporters because of political unrest / rebellion caused by famine. This could lead to a chain reaction.
Fear spreads like a virus too.
I think food shortages were a large part of the Arab spring as well.
In the worst scenario, yes.
@@davesprivatelounge maybe this will lead to the United States/Canada becoming the new USSR
Patrick should read the global dollar wheat export chart that flashed on the screen. Russia exports over $8billion, Ukraine $3b, and France $4b. Why so much diversion about China and India who export so little? A better survey of the global trade would have been more meaningful than a concentration on the Ukraine invasion.
India produces a lot of wheat, and most of it is for domestic consumption. 1.5 billion people and all.
@@davesprivatelounge Yes, good point. Re google/ "In financial year 2021, the share of food and allied products in major imports across India was 4.5 percent. This was an increase from the previous year's share of food products to major imports. For fiscal year 2022, a rise up to over 4.6 percent is expected.Mar 17, 2022
because its not about exports but total production.
I was raised on a working farm and ranch and commonly heard my dad say we’re not planting this field this year. He would inform me the government was paying him to not plant that field for this particular year (1960-70’s). I never asked and he never advised if they just replaced his anticipated net profit in return for not planting, so I don’t know the specifics. He sold the farm section when I was in university and I never went back except for holidays.
Thus, say without reservation, the US could greatly increase it’s production if it wanted and this American production is being manipulated as leaders see fit. So, if prices go up it will be because the government mismanaged the process.
Leaving fields fallow (and rotating crops) has been an important strategy for farmers since the dawn of history. It's less common now than it was 50 or 100 years ago, as farmers will often plant cover crops instead of leaving a field fallow, but the idea is that you need to give the land time to replenish nutrients. Otherwise, you end up with lower yields and less nutritious crops. There is most definitely a reason for it, the government isn't just paying farmers to sit idle because they hate everyone and want people to starve. Which really, ought to be obvious, if you think about it long enough to ask WHY that policy might exist.
Thanks Patrick! You consistently provide the best content and presentation on UA-cam!
Спасибо за подробный анализ
Time to fcking stop the food wasting. Time to fine supermarkets for every ton of thrown out product
They legally have to throw it out u moron
From Trinidad 🇹🇹 &Tobago very informative 🙏 thanks much
I'm stocking up, esp on canned tuna. Combine this with the impending financial meltdown that's going to happen in the markets, and you've got a recipe for civil unrest the likes of which have never been seen in this country before.
Which country
@@sonic10ultimate this one
that one
I´m also stocking, but don´t rely too heavily on canned tuna, it contains quite a lot of mercury, so if you were to only eat that for a year, you´d probably poison yourself.
Extremely informative! You are a treasure on youtube financial education!
Superb narrative. I wasn’t aware of the track gauging issues for example and the impacts on food production. Quite eye-opening.
The Russian Empire deliberately made them wider so that in the event of an invasion, the enemy could not use the railway. and it worked, the Nazis could not properly supply the troops
Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, many fields have been mined. That will take many many years to clear so the land can be used again without risk. My opinion...I expect food prices to either remain this high or higher over the next 3 to 5 years.
I swear to god why in the ass do we still use anti-personnel mines...
Why do people not fucking figure out that at the end of the war they don't just disappear. War or not, win or lose, they don't go away.
They stay in the ground. They wait to be found.
We need to stop throwing out food that doesn't look nice and stop allocating so much of our corn to ethanol
we will stop, when price shoots up
@@moonshadow7057
US is going to have no problems with food and it will stay cheap in the US. The issues are places in the world were they do not have the ability. China imports almost 90% of its food.
@@bighands69 if price stays cheap it means there’s no shortage, it’s not like if Americans start save more food those food will be donated to Africa anyway
It's kinda dark to imagine that shit's about to get even worse.
What's so important for people to understand is LESS WHEAT = LESS MEAT. This isn't about running out of bread, crackers, and cereal. Grains are mostly used to feed OUR FOOD. PROTEIN is a NECESSITY, unlike carbohydrates. We need grain to feed chickens, pigs, cows, and other sources of protein. This is all about moving us off of meat and onto reconstituted insect protein, and they'll say it's about saving the environment.
Ok, Snowflake.
You are the greatest "explainer".
I never miss a video.
Last time the Middle East suffered from northern hemisphere grain export shortages, we got the Arab Spring.... I'll be watching Lebanon very closely this year
My country's govt (Serbia) is contemplating stopping food exports in general, which would affect most of the neighboring countries.. If Hungary decides to do so as well it's gonna be catastrophic.
And for which country does yours export anything? Certainly not to Kosovo and Bosna and Herzegovina, given that you tried to wipe them off the face of the earth.
@@geoffreycharles6330 amazing. You can't escape angry people yeling about politics on the internet
@@geoffreycharles6330 how is this relevant?
tko vas vodi dobro ste dogurali i do tu...
Serbia was betrayed and repeatedly sttabed in the back by the rest of Europe. So it is legitimate now that Serbia stops food exports to that same Europe who pushed so hard to destroy Yugoslavia.
The initial promise made about growing crops for Ethanol was, that only marginal land was going to be used. On that basis, all is good but the reality has turned out bad.
Thank you for your input. I’ve heard that things will be horrible and millions will starve. You are more level headed than almost everyone I have heard.
Your underestimating. Without a fertiliser solution, the world will loose a billion to starvation within 10 years.
@@nimernimer that is assuming that there will be no adaptations. There will be a short term crunch and I personally have put back 2 months worth of calories just in my long term storage. I’m stocking up but it is good to hear that a more neutral voice instead of the “everyone is going to die” crowd.
@@mro2352 name a single project being even discussed to augment the nitrates shortage. These plants require multi year planning not to mention the input resources have to come from somewhere. If you can afford to stock calories then your not going to be part of the famine. This will decimate africa.
@@nimernimer you're taking the numbers out of your ass. There no methodology to calculate how damaging lack of fertilizers will be.
@@nimernimer I understand. There is no talk now because no one is currently short what is normal. This will only be discussed once people are starving and the Biden administration sure isn’t going to do much. In fact he is causing more problems because of the rejection of increased gas leases and the anti fossil fuels agenda is forcing the US to burn its own food supply in the way of ethanol and in fact is talking of increasing the amount of ethanol allowed in gas by 5%. I also agree that this will be absolutely devastating to the third world. I’m not trying to make light of it. My main point is that this is a problem and to have Patrick address it as an actual problem as he seems to be measured and level headed shows how bad things in the back ground are.
Thanks!
The world really did end in 2012, we all just got sent to hell without realizing it.
The North America will be fine and do will Western Europe but everywhere else there will be problems.
@@bighands69 A lot of angry people in the "everywhere else", people who will lose family during these times aka with nothing to lose, will come a-knocking in the West in the near future. And in an ironic twist, it will be western films like Joker, The Dark Knight, The Batman and Fight Club that would inspire them to just, "..watch the world burn." and "stick it to the man" i.e. the west.
If the West doesn't want to do anything now like stop the war in Ukraine and assist these smaller, vulnerable nations navigate their food shortages and economic troubles then it better keep close eye on those nuke storage. You won't know what vengeful, angry people are capable of doing.
@@bighands69 yes and then refugees are coming.
It ended in the 70s and 80s when organised labour was crushed by capital.
what do you mean?
US , Canada and France are among the top wheat exporters ....
Those countries should play a positive role in releasing their reserves to stabilise wheat prices for next two years ...
Well one thing you can be pretty sure of: developed countries will never see periods of significant deflation ever again. Central bankers hate deflation far more than they dislike inflation. Long term nominal bonds at low interest rates hedge outcomes that central bankers will never allow to happen.
These videos are always GREAT!
Thank you for bring attention to this Patrick. This is going to be a HUGE problem this fall/winter. A mass starvation event is on the way. The poorest countries will suffer most. 😬
On top of worsting droughts in the US, and ocean salting farms in Italy with less Alp snow available to melt. Everything that can go wrong, is going wrong, all at once.
@@swaggery Yup. The pigeons are all coming home to roost. And it's not going to be pretty. 😬
Maybe the poorest countries should stop having kids they can't feed...
@@bonzibuddy6852 That’s a discussion best kept off the comment section, haha. Just to add oil on the fire ur trying to start, I’ll mention Bill Gates’ contribution to the population boom in the poor counties you’re thinking about 😇
@@louisvl10 it's true though. why have kids that you can't feed. same with poor people in the us who have many kids that they can't feed and live off of the government. your response is ignorant
Anyone else shook by how concise, well paced, and interesting this way?
So a lot of agricultural production might move to countries like America and Canada. It may be both good and in fact necessary to support investment in agriculture to keep stability in the west. No matter what, the situation looks okay for developed nations, and horrific for those least developed. Seems like a change in the world order is brewing.
the problem is production has lag time, there won't be supply in time for the coming crisis, there will be food shortages like never before seen in our lifetimes, that combined with shortages in diesel and fertiliser means it could be a few years before we even have the production needed, developing countries are going to be completely decimated
You can't just completely overhaul an industry and start growing food in the West, producing anything is not that simple or fast. It will be years minimum and in the short term, massive food shortages (indeed worse in developing countries) but will still be seen in Western countries because of that lag time. Even if we started massively producing in the US right this second (which isn't possible, both due to the fact that food grows based on seasons and that it takes planning and $$$ to do it), much of that food would not be ready for a year or two. And.. we're not going to get on it nearly that fast, in fact, we're producing *less* than normal. There will surely be shortages we have not seen in our lifetimes, how bad exactly, we can't tell.
Josh Segeleon the west is already capable of growing a surplus. The problem is that farmers are being paid by corporation to burn it to keep up the high prices on food
Australia too, now that there is a new government there willing to enact this.
@@jsedge2473 The US already grows huge stores of food. The federal government buys a lot of agriculture and often puts it in warehouses where they go bad. On top of that, unlike the developing world, America has a much more stable and efficient domestic production chain, along with significant trade between us, Canada, and Mexico. Even if things were at the worst, the US has 40% of its population as obese and 60% is estimated to be overweight. America will be fine. So chill with the black pills before you OD.
Well said Patrick, as always you hit the nail on the head.
You may or may not realize that a lot of the current food price increases we are seeing in the US are the work of local and nation wide retail grocers. You make it worse by implying that we should get used to it because underlying conditions justify the rise. I know this for a fact because I shop assiduously for food in Delray Beach FL and in Smithtown NY and see items like beets offered from prices varying from 33 to 99 cents per pound or chicken leg quarters offered from $4.80 to $8.90 for a 10 pound bag. The cheaper bag was more neatly cut and the quarters were all the same size. I see milk offered at $1.65 for 1 gallon of 1% milk at ALDI Lake Grove and at $4+ at Stop and Shop Smithtown. I see eggs varying in price from $2 for a dozen large, which is by no means cheap (was 60 cents in November) to $3.
Whatever the underlying conditions may be, we are presently seeing simple price gouging for lagniappe.
Professional clear wonderful coverage. Grateful 🙏
Wow! What a time to be alive.
For the moment, sure.
Don't worry, the being alive part might not last long!
It won't get boring at least. Not that is has been last century.
But it won't get boring and not that deadly yet so it's a good show for the most part.
100% my thoughts. Just that my brain added the word "bad"
It's so incredibly boring chasing one imagined apocalypse after another
Thanks and gratitude for this video. My father’s peoples were farmers, a long time ago, in Ohio.
Ok
India did not banned wheat exports , its just that private players can't export now. Countries can still get indian wheat by asking on government level , and the previous orders will be fulfilled soon. this ban is to ensure no hoarding by countries like china and other private players who will hoard frains and will release when price will rise.
Awesome episode. Thanks Patrick.
Billionaires bought a lot of farmland in the last decades. In the end they own everything, from crop to politicians to information. Looking at the supermarkets in my country we feed everybody with or without fertilizers, with or without Ukraine or Russia.
the only channel where i dont even skipp the sponsor part of the video.
You’re doing a good job here fella 👍🏻
Hmmm. Wheat shortages means no more bread, cake, biscuits, spaghetti, noodles, breakfast cereal...
But there will still be yam, rice, Irish potatoes, sweet potatoes, beans, cocoyam, acha, meat, fish, palm oil...
I'm seeing a healthier lifestyle.
One piece of good news, or at least less bad news, is that reportedly Ukrainian farmers have mostly been able to plant their spring crops. It was expected that the war would have a major impact on this but apparently it is going much better than anticipated.
You can plant all you want (around 70% of usual IIRC) , if you don't have place to store it's all for nothing.
There are also reports of russian shooting incendiary shell at wheatfields in southern Ukraine. At this time normally farmers start gather it...
The whole corn-to-ethanol thing is more luxury than necessity. Meaning, we do it because we can. In a crunch, we can turn it off and point the corn to human consumption. Environmentalists will stfu when they have a mouth full of sandwich.
13:21 Yes it is indeed less calories per acre, but more micronutrient dense, cow and pork are way higher in micronutrient content that crops, micronutrient content of food is extremely important not just the calories. You can have fat people who are still malnourished because of eating high caloric foods but not very nutrient dense (like corn for example).
Or we could get this occasionally grow plants that aren't corn. Not even all the time. The rigidity of our current system will kill people
Now this is some content that i need
Field corn grown in US, however, needs to be processed to be used as food. Those calories taste like crap and have low nutritional value. Referring to the calories per acre point made.
Calorie is more important than nutrition in starving country. Nutrients are luxury when energy is tanking
When a person is starving anything that can be eaten will be consumed.
Grandma used wood chips in beaking bread to make it the stomach as least feel full. Lived through WW2 as a kid in Germany
You are right corn has poor nutritional value but when turned to masa and used for tortillas, tacos, tomales, and nachos its not so bad for taste 😉
I read of terrible stories from Haiti during their food crisis where mothers were baking biscuits made from a mixture of mud and sugar for their children. I can't comprehend what that must have been like.
One thing to remember is that cows alone eat and consume over 20x more food than the entire human population. The agricultural Industry consumes around 40x more food than the entire human population.
The "food shortages" is deliberated power games. Imo.
Patrick's description of the bare quantitative bones of western food production is simply breathtaking.
We shall see how the political parties in the first world countries rise (or fail to rise) to this emerging reality, and how they respond to the truly needy.
In the U.S. it will lead to blame of the current administration for what is actually a worldwide phenomenon..
The entrenched agribusiness subsidy for corn production coupled with the legislated demand for fuel augmentation for US's love of inefficient vehicles will put tremendous pressure on the incumbent, even though subsidies have been largely promoted by conservative agribusiness lobbyists. Sobering to realize that these large corporations can essentially determine that it is better to feed less people per acre in return for increased profit. Thank you Patrick for pointing that out.
Lake Mead just breached the 1050 level which will trigger more water reductions for Arizona agriculture. More reductions below 1045.
Another golden nugget which reflects the wisdom of wider factors missed by investment professionals. Thank You Patrick
He is a investment professional
@@robc8892 yes he is and he also taught me. But all investment professionals have diverse outlooks and opinions. Some miss key factors and the wider perspectives. I believe he covered them well, especially in terms of the bigger picture.
I live in Central Wisconsin and the farmers here are feeling all of those problems. Let's hope on a good rain supply. In the west , Colorado, Wyoming ,Nebraska and Kansas are experiencing a multi year draught. Oh hurricane season is coming. A good hurricane hitting the gulf coast drives up oil prices.
Well, I can afford to lose a few pounds . . .
*a lot of pounds ( o.o)
Hopefully that's in weight, and not in Sterling.
Thanks, as always sober and sound.
Canada literally have the ability to produce more of every single commodity in short supply at the moment. problem is our shithead goverment and its associated systems are so slow to react to anything happening that we will let this opportunity evaporate.
What could the Canadian government do that the private industry couldn't?
sad
@@tehepicduck101 Canadian government can get out of the way and stop with the runaway regulation and environmental protection religion.
The shithead conservatives would be just as slow, since the magic wands they all believe in do not exist, lmao.
Conservative government is usually catastrophic, with most runaway deficit situations in the last 40 or 50 years being triggered by Conservative policies. The Liberals have to come in afterwards to clean up the dumpster fires that previous Conservative administrations left behind. Conservative general incompetence is mind boggling.
@@tehepicduck101 Nothing. He is not interested in anything constructive actually being done, he is more interested in stopping abortion, letting everyone play with guns and putting more people in jail for longer. That is about the extent of the typical Conservative mentality. The are not really interested in good government or growing the economy, those things are just covers they pay lip service to in order to pursue batshit crazy social policies, which is what they are really about.
2 Esdras 15:1-9
"Behold, speak thou in the ears of my people the words of prophecy, which I will put in thy mouth, saith the Lord: And cause them to be written in paper: for they are faithful and true.
Fear not the imaginations against thee, let not the incredulity of them trouble thee, that speak against thee. For all the unfaithful shall die in their unfaithfulness.
Behold, saith the Lord, I will bring plagues upon the world; the sword, famine, death, and destruction. For wickedness hath exceedingly polluted the whole earth, and their hurtful works are fulfilled.
Therefore saith the Lord, I will hold my tongue no more as touching their wickedness, which they profanely commit, neither will I suffer them in those things, in which they wickedly exercise themselves: behold, the innocent and righteous blood crieth unto me, and the souls of the just complain continually.
And therefore, saith the Lord, I will surely avenge them, and receive unto me all the innocent blood from among them."
Ahh American agriculture. You can feed the world with your corn, but instead you feed the cows.
Do you never stop to think though, why is a country that's frozen half the year a prolific exporter of food but countries with warmer climates and higher rainfall are importing food? Something is very wrong here.
@@thomas316 soil
@@thomas316 mechanization and technology
ya, because beef is one of the best sources of nutrition you clown.
Thanks for putting this out
Finally being overweight (aka physical hedge against food price inflation) seems like its paying off.
That's pretty funny. 👍
Except that it takes a lot of willpower to make use of that hedge. Overweight people are going to be protesting food prices just as much as skinny people.
You will be crying for a donut
@@gregwilvert I might be crying for a doughnut but yall thin pepole will have starved long before that. After the apocalypse the formerly fat will rule the world! In the future thin people will be remembered like the dinosaurs are now. I can already see it. I can see Utopia.
The issue with using more tech in farming is that the infructructer is not there... Try getting cell service anywhere between the Mississippi and the Rocky's.
For the global wheat shortage I’m doing my bit to help by going keto on grass fed beef.
Can't print your way out of this problem. It could get bad
I feel sorry for those out there who still think this is a coincidence.
A great video delivering the facts, sobering to hear.
I feel much safer growing my own food.
My figs and tomatoes I grow on my patio are becoming ready to eat TODAY! 🙂🙂🙂