Simplest Difficult Question of Probability | Controversial Probability Question by NMS Sir
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- Опубліковано 30 вер 2024
- In this video , NMS Sir delves into controversial probability question that challenges conventional thinking.
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Answer is 2/3 but the correct explanation is as below.
Sample Set 1= Throw of Dice
S1=(1,2,3,4,5,6)
Sample Set2=Truth or Lie
S2=(T,L)
But outcome of S2 depends on outcome of S1. For ex., if dice rolls 1 , then T=(1) and L=(2,3,4,5,6)
P(T) = P(1)= 2/3 while P(L)= P(2,3,4,5,6)= 1/3
=> P(2)=P(3)….=P(6)= 1/3x1/5
S12= {(1,1),(1,2)……….(1,6),
(2,1),…………..(2,6)
.
.
.
(6,1)…………….(6,6)}
All diagonal terms like (1,1) or (3,3) are truths and their individual probability = 1/6 x 2/3=1/9.
Probability of all other terms = 1/6 x 1/3 x 1/5.
Now Event E= Roll a dice in closed room and man says 6.
E = ((1,6), (2,6),(3,6),(4,6),(5,6),(6,6))
First 5 terms are lies and last one is the truth.
So, P(E)= 5 x 1/6x 1/3 x 1/5+ 1/6 x 2/3
= 1/6
When E has happened, P(T/E) = P(6,6)/P(E)
= 1/6 x 2/3 x 6/1
= 2/3.
Don't try this at home, these stunts are perfomed by experts only. Sir yeh stunts jhelne ki shamta aapne sirf offline wale bacho ko hi di hai abhi tak , online mai kisi ko hajam nahi hoga
Bro ap focus karo apne study , rest ka bagwan or wo khud dekh lenge. ❤
Apka logic thik nehi sir...please review...banda ake 6 announce kar dia...uske corresponding jhoot ki probability 5/6×2/3..aur 1/5 se multiply ho hi nehi sakta.. question ke condition ke bahar chala ja raha hai... condition hai banda ake 6 announce kar dia..matlab andar me kuch aya tha lekin bahar ake oh hamesha ke liye 6 bol diya...to us 6 bolne ke corresponding kitna jhoot hai yeh sirf 5/6×2/3 hi hoga...agar andar 4 pada lekin wo ake 3 bola yeh bhi jhoot hai...lekin isme o count hi nehi hoga..mamla fix kar diya ki o 6 hi bolega..andar chahe kuch bhi pada ho...total outcome ke count me apne extra count kar liya...
Yes I agree with you...Bayes theorem ke total probability me sir ne galat concept laga Diya...extra count kar Diya...andar agar 4 pada tha..bahar ake o phir bhi 6 hi bolega...4 gira tha lekin uske corresponding 1,2,3,5,6 yeh 5 jhoot hai..lekin yeh pe sirf six ke corresponding jhoot hi count hoga..isliye extra 1/5 se multiply ho hi nehi sakta...last line me clearly bol Diya Banda ake 6 bol Diya...matalb o 1,2,3,4,5 bol hi nehi sakta...
telling a truth is 2/3 only if he knows the truth but question is he dont know truth (as dark room) but he tells "six came" means there is no meaning of what probabilty does he tell truth. HENCE, Ans is directly 1/6.
telling a truth is 2/3 only if he knows the truth but question is he dont know truth (as dark room) but he tells "six came" means there is no meaning of what probabilty does he tell truth. HENCE, Ans is directly 1/6.
Excellent solution and analysis of the question! I really appreciate it.
Sirr if a convex lense is half covered with black paper will it form image?? Yeh walaahh question ka concept samjha dijiyegah sir please❤
Ye veritasium bahut pehle daala tha sir Derek
Wow wonderful please make some more videos like this ❤❤ very interesting to see❤
More to come!
Sir please mAke. More videos on sutch basic amazing questions
Definitely
I always do multi-event chain questions by drawing the event tree and assigning the probabilities to the edges.. this way you can never get such questions wrong...Here, the events are getting a six on roll, then choosing to lie or speak truth..then in case of lie...selecting which outcome to speak outside and in case of truth...he has to say it as it is...
When NMS becomes MT
-> The Line of Thinking 🤔🤔🤔
Iit Guwahati accepted that 47.1is incorrect ans. 60.8 is correct answer.ab kya Karo get Takle. Mohit Bhargav sir ko galat sabit kar Rahe the
Kahi ke sir manne ko taiyar nhi honge
Nms sir best ❤❤❤❤
What a Great Teacher......
Prabhu Apni Sharan me le lijiye....❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
❤️❤️🛐🛐 LORD 🕉
NMS SIR: The king of physics and calculation 🔥🔥🔥
For the first time I find probability pretty interesting
It is my weak point.
But none the less thank u sir for clearing my doubt.
Keep watching
reality is something else .
God tussi great ho awesome ❤❤. Jai hind sir Deepak Lucknow
No sir. I think you need to check first term of denominator again. You have consider only one possible lie that he can speak, In denominator one is suppose to add all possible out come. So probability of speaking one particular lie is 1/5 but the total ways in Which he can do that is 5. So 5*1/5 turns out to be 1. So we are again back at first answer according to books. I hope I made my point.
Fir se socho beta
@@NMSPhysicsISAC no sir. I suggest you to think again.
@@rushishah1140see my solution in comments, it will become clear.
Are isse aisa bhi samajh sakte hai, yeh mera solution, 1/6*2/3 whole divided by, (1/6*1/3)[ 6 sachme nahi aya aur usne jhoot bola]+(1/6*2/3)[6 sachmein aya aur usne sach bola]
😅 It sounds more simple and logical to me, what's your thoughts?
Agar 6 gira and wo sach bola hoga to 1/6*2/3 possibility and 6 nhi gira and ake 6 gira ye bolega to 5/6*1/3 possibility to total possibility ke liye add kar do 1/6*2/3+5/6*1/3= 7/18 😅😅
Bayes theoram se ek aur way h…..ki trutth ka probability fir 6 ka probability….ab 6 aa chuka h toh btao truth hone ka probability……2/3
❤❤❤❤
🙂
your teaching style is awesome😍😍
Keep watching
bada mazedar sirji
Dhanyawaad
Your answer is wrong dude, he can tell a lie in infinite possibilities, he can also tell 20 aya he has no limitation to tell a lie isliye 1/5 karne ka koi sense nahi he ... Please kabhi kabhi dusro ki baat bhi man lia kijiye
Dice ke outcome mein 20 bolte hue thoda achcha nhi lagega
@@Lovenmssir boss pahle total probability ko samzo. 1/5 dalne ka koi sense nahi nikalta Varna sare dice ke saval jo hum karte the galat ho jayege
Bhai dice to dekh le pehle.,
20 kaise aa jaayega dice mai
Bhai mere , 1/5 ka sense banta hain.. agar 5 aya aur usne 1 bola, to ek jhooth hain, 2 aaya aur usne 3 bola vo ek jhooth hain..aise 5 jhooth hain..aur 6 aaya aur usne ek jhooth bola vo bhi ek jhooth hain..to aise 6 jhooth hain@@RakeshKumar-zl3wy
I think kucch question ke answer koi satisfy nahi de sakta
Can u start concept series sir
U can transfer u r knowledge to our India ❤❤
Sir lekin Jab Aapne 5/6 likha tab ye to confirm kar diya tha na ki 6 nahi aaya hai....
Mtlb 6 naa aaye to 5 number bache
Inmai se ek select karne ki probability= 5C1/6
fr dubaara 1/5 mulitply kyu?
Lets say 4 aaya ab woh jhuth bolega to uski probability 1/3 hai yani ki 2 or 3 or 5 or 1 or 6 mein se kuchh bole uski probability 1/3 hai to 6 bolne ki 1/15 ho gyi na
NCERT question
Thermodynamics me prob ati h sir
Sir please aisi videos bnate rhiya kare please please
Surely
Sab upar se gaya
Pura smjh agya sir..bdia 👍👍
Wrong concept
Sorry sir but i as not able to understand how you multiply it with one by two
1/5
Sir please take that question of solenoid in magnetism which was asked in adv. and one of your student(whose rank was 23) did it right but in adv. its answer was wrongly solved. 📚🔎💡
Sir ,the probability that it is actually 6 ≠ the probability that he is telling truth (2/3) because sir
wo andhera room mein dice throw krta hai toh usko kaise pata chala ki 6 aya hai ki nhi , matlab wo joh 6 aya hai bol raha hai wo truth bhi ho sakta hai and false bhi ho sakta hai
Andhera as in a closed room, not a dark room (read the original question on the slide)
After reading the complete questions, please do comment
Arey hame maaf krdo vailog humse galti ho gya , age se dhyan rakhenge 🤣🤣
I think this question was asked in WBHS in some year. I have come across this question while preparing for my HS this year.
Y cbse board me hajaar bar aya hua h
Still her kitaab mein galat answer hai aur sab yahi kara rhe
Not a good explanation , it is like tukka in case of Bayes theorem.
You should think like that ....
A : speaking truth
B : announces that it is six
C : actually six
Using Bayes
P(C/B)=P(C intersection B)/P(B)
=P((B intersection A)
intersection B)/P(B)
=P(A intersection B)/P(B)
=p(A) P(B)/P(B) =P(A)
Hence 2/3 is correct .
Bhai lekin. Sir ki soch to god level hai na....
U can't always stick to method
NO WE SHOULD NOT , BUT ALWAYS TRY TO THINK BIG FORMULA (NEVER TRY TO SOLVE FROM BASIC , BECAUSE IT NEVER GONNA IMPROVE YOUR MIND , MAY STRONG YOUR CONCEPT ) AND BELIEVE ME MANY ( MORE THAN 90 PERCENT (GOOD PEOPLE ) THINK FROM BASIC )
drive.google.com/file/d/1-BW0_I_HDK8VIR2ZvoDBneCQy65Py4Wk/view?usp=drivesdk
sir please review question 10 physics paper1 the answer is 3 not 1, i think because when you have error of 1 percent in 2 quantities.
How can a quantity made from above 2 quantities can still have 1 percent I am not opposing differential method but it is always not right
amazing sir!! Liked your analysis of this question :))
sir please review question 10 physics paper1 the answer is 3 not 1, i think because when you have error of 1 percent in 2 quantities.
How can a quantity made from above 2 quantities can still have 1 percent I am not opposing differential method but it is always not right
drive.google.com/file/d/1-BW0_I_HDK8VIR2ZvoDBneCQy65Py4Wk/view?usp=drivesdk
please reply it sir
i think this question needs to be talked i do not know how to reach you
Man i got to see ur comment in every video
Aisa isliye kyuki equation me saare terms reciprocal me hai. Reciprocal ke time error normal se kam raheta hai.
@@Shreyas_Jaiswal see my answer as drive file up
both formulas are same whether in reciprocal or f equals to way , diiferential way is wrong as it subtracts errors but we know that errors add up
better arguments are welcome
drive.google.com/file/d/1-BW0_I_HDK8VIR2ZvoDBneCQy65Py4Wk/view?usp=drivesdk
sir please review question 10 physics paper1 the answer is 3 not 1, i think because when you have error of 1 percent in 2 quantities.
How can a quantity made from above 2 quantities can still have 1 percent I am not opposing differential method but it is always not right