Israel-Iran war would cause 'global recession' | Ian Bremmer
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- Опубліковано 10 жов 2024
- "Everyone in the world should worry if there is a broader war between Israel and Iran."
Global oil and gas prices would skyrocket in the event of a war between Israel and Iran, inevitably causing a "global recession", says President and Founder of Eurasia Group Ian Bremmer.
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If a war between two countries whose economies are very minor in comparison to the global economy can trigger a recession, then I would would say that something is fundamentally wrong with how the global economy is set up and probably it deserves that recession and then some.
Yeah, these analysts sell fear.
More than 20% of world's oil goes through SoH which can easily be blocked by Iran! Furthermore attacks can occur on US friendly oil suppliers in the region, remember Aramco attack? Expensive oil means everything in your local city wherever you may be will be more expensive and it doesn't take a genius to understand that.
A war between Israel and Iran could cause a global recession for several reasons:
1. Disruption of Oil Supply: The Middle East is a major oil-producing region. Conflict could disrupt oil production and transportation, leading to skyrocketing oil prices.
2. Instability in Global Markets: War increases uncertainty, causing stock markets and investments to plunge as businesses lose confidence.
3. Impact on Key Shipping Routes: Straits of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil, could be blocked or threatened, severely disrupting global trade.
4. Military Spending Increase: Countries may increase defense budgets, diverting resources away from growth-promoting investments.
Which of those are you skeptical of?
Lol your elites just need an excuse to usher the final stages of the great reset. Remember...you'll be poor AND happy 😅
Dependency on their energy is our weakness. We should develop our own energy supplies
Iran currently only supply's 3% of the world's oil , so replacing it is very easy !
Yah. its a lot more than that . Other wise All stock exchanges wouldn't be fluctuating . Time 4 men to think about their pocket more than conflict Wars.
That's the official number. Iran leaks revealed how they rebrand their oil to sell it internationally
And most goes to China.
If Iran can block the strait of Hormuz, they can limit the transport of oil from Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and UAE, which is a significant chunk of world supply.
@hm5142 iran isn't capable of blocking it though. It would almost certainly bring the gulf states to war with Iran and the US navy outmatches Iran in every single way
Why do people go out of their way to scare people?
Yes you two, it’s the economic statistics that matter here, forget the number of dead and starving needed for Israel to feel safe. Modern day media, such failures as at being human!
Well iranians don't care, why should we? Humanity is overrated
Go to Iran, you’ll feel safe there
Uk is already in recession for years
The recession is here, where do investors look at for wealth gains now? mortgage rates still on the rise with higher imports and lower exports, yet the Fed is to lessen cost. Something will eventually break if they keep raising interests and quantitative tightening.
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Any excuse to raise prices
America makes its own oil these days
So does ur mom
Most the oil made in America are from Venezuela.
Iran’s oil is largely sanctioned and off the market anyway. Destroying their oil production capacity would not affect western oil prices in any permanent or meaningful way.
If anything Iran will be desperate and sell it cheaper
Main buyer is China
The idea is that Iran would attack the oil fields of other countries.
Totally untrue. Supply chains would be more effected than just the price of oil going above $120.
Why?
Sad to see Bremmer’s middle name is now Chamberlain. His analysis is distorted toward giving in to autocrats. He didn’t used to be that way.
The Islamic Shia ruling regime in Iran is not only moving its Drone manufacturing to Russia but also moving its multi-billion-dollar Crusie and Ballistic Missile factories to Russia as well, with the start of the conflict, the Islamic regime will start importing its own missiles manufactured cruise missiles, drones, and ballistic missiles to Iran via Caspian sea and the Caucasus regions.
Parden me . i dont wish to be sooo rude. 'but' this doesn't seem like the best of deals for Iran. As. if it had a billion 'dollar??? business
then it would not need to import from Russia or import back its own stuff??? Because this Would mean a huge reliance upon Russia, from Which Russia could easily set the increased Tariff . Also if Russia supplied them then they have not been that Good. (just being truthful). And Also Why do you say in 'dollars? and not in Iran currency or rubel ??? it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.
Once history looks back on thus terrible situation. My worry is that we British will get associated with the Israelis and their actions. We don't want this stain on our generations to come
The stain is already there, it will never be erased. Britain is complicit in one of the worst crimes against humanity of the first quarter of this century.
The Beirut area has always been the flashpoint for Israeli contention with Iran. Not surprisingly the Whitehouse (when run by Democrats) has always used this tinderbox to create instability when needed.
Here we go
“The global recession will be because of Iran… nothing to do with the US yield curve un-inverting”. Just like “Russia-Ukraine war is causing inflation…. nothing to do with money printing during Covid”
Inflation is 2.5&
@@calc1657 I’m referring the powers that be blaming the conflict when inflation leapt up a couple of years ago. I wouldn’t be so sure inflation is over either… if the interest rate drops presently taking plats are out of necessity, rather that choice, it’s bad news (ie Iran is not to blame for economic disaster)
Those yield curve correlations are too small for statistical significance.
If theres a broader War between Iran and Israel. Everybody Will suffer. The Iranians Will suffer, Even the Jews themselves will suffer, the rest of the World Will suffer, and so will 'Putin'. Therefore if ALL of the men. Want their Economic interest. Then they had ALL better make negotiation to back down their Aggression. When money is threatened then its time for them to get around the negotiation table.
The subsequent rise in the oil price if that waterway is blocked, would be catastrophic, depression. More likely. 150 price conservative
“Recession Risk”? 🤣 Israel’s economy’s in FREE FALL. 😉😎🤣🤣
Aren't we already in recession? Or we just had a short break to catch a breath?
Time to sell!
There is New Year now and Yom Kippur in 10 days time so doubtful anything major will happen. Doubtful would trigger a recession. Overreaction.
What a crock of BS. Oil will flow
This guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about! Iran is already sanctioned… China is about its only customer for oil. The USA is already the largest exporter of oil in the world. The price of oil is traded.. the risks are factored into the price ALL the time
Depression more like it
The Bible prophecies are coming true thanks God
hm very interesting. Yes , if anyone tries to harm the Ayatollah, then they are going to harm themselves on the Global stock exchange.
very interesting. dynamically. Even Putin should try to follow suit for Peace, between all people, so that he doesn't loose out as well.
Disagree!
Haha nothing to do with covid
Israel’s value for the US has been to maintain regional stability, but that has evaporated
US cowardice has created this war
Your a big full to think striking iran oil will cause recession.