So you don’t think the homes for sale at 2MM that sold 3 years ago for $500K and flipped 3 times since then will hold their value? That is south Florida in a nutshell.
Check the unemployment rate chart and the 10yr minus 2yr yield curve. Recession is hitting early next year. And unemployment will rise. This is what will cause people to flood the market with houses for sale. Prices will tank.
Thank you for the comment. You might be right. 35% +- should bring current affordability closer into historical ranges. Once these cycles get going, they generally over-shoot. It creates enormous opportunity if you are ready. Good comment. Michael Douville
Thank you for the comment. The price drop returns the Market to equilibrium. If factors deteriorate, then the equilibrium could very well be lower. Nice comment. Michael Douville
Phoenix is exempt from a lot of issues in other places. - Huge amount of older people own property with no mortgage or very low interest rates. No incentive to sell. Contributes to lower supply. - Still a growing hotbed of tech. Lots of folks still moving to Phoenix metro. Huge demand. - Nobody is building up, so the only way to add housing is to expand outwards but many people don't want to live on the fringes. Houses in neighborhoods that people want to live will remain in high demand.
@@WilliamFisher1 majority of homes are owned by younger people. There are old person communities everywhere. Yes Arizona may have slightly more in a few areas but this had been the case in 2008 as well and look what happened. Arizona and the Phoenix area will be no different this time around. Look at the 10 yr minus 2yr yield curve and the unemployment rate chart. The charts themselves show you that they predict recessions and we have one coming just around the corner. And it’s gunna be a doozy. The yield curve has been inverted deep and for a longer period of time and will lead do longer and deeper recession. People act like people have been calling the recession for such a long time now when in reality, the timing is right on track. It takes about 2 years for fiscal and monetary policy to be seen in the macro economy. We’re riding a knife edge right now. Be a little patient. It will surely come.
If you own a home, prices are steady to up a little. If you are looking for a home, prices are crazy high. If you’re on the sidelines waiting and watching videos like yours… a crash is just around the corner, for atleast the last 3-4 years.
Prices have been dropping for the last few months from what I've seen on Zillow. Then there's maybe 5% of properties that have been listed for several years without any price drops. I suspect that the federal reserve will do everything in its power to keep prices artificially high to prevent true price discovery. I don't think we've recovered from the 90's bubble.
Thank you for the comment. I bought a ton of properties 2020-2022 and stopped buying when my model peaked. I made a lot of money and so far, have kept it. Farmers do not plant seeds in Winter. I am expecting a bumper crop coming in the Spring when I will buy like crazy!!! Michael Douville
What's coming will be worse than '08. If home buyers have the patience to wait they can get a good deal. It's going to be years though. Not next year. Most people don't know that the Twin Towers in NYC had very low vacancy before they were destroyed.
There is way too much cumulative inflation combined with government mortgage debt forbearance, loan modifications, foreclosure stopages, on and on. Deflation in home prices & property taxes will NOT be allowed. The housing market is fully socialized now.
I'm in Florida on the coast.. already lost 15-17% on my home and falling fast. So this is not accurate at all. Imagine the blue cities in a year if Florida is doing this already
Regardless of price, there is a large percentage of the population that do not want to buy homes. Even if there is a big price drop a lot of people don’t want to be responsible for the upkeep or taxes and insurance.
Thank you for the great comment. Yes, they are my customers! it is a very good symbiotic relationship. I provide a Clean, Safe, and Friendly house, and they lease it from me and make it their home! Michael Douville
at some point you have to actually make a prediction. You cannot keep saying "the big crash and huge buying opportunity is coming...next year" LOL! Meanwhile home sell prices still going up in 2024 in most markets.
Thank you for the comment. Yes, there is a huge shortage of affordable homes. If all cars were $150,000, most of us would all be walking! Michel Douville
Selling BAC as they have billions of unrealized losses. Their financial statemenst are not mark to market. Holding billions of mortgage bonds when the bonds were bought at 2.75% and what are those bonds worth mark to market
Good. Bubbles need to pop so young people can afford a house again. To prevent this in future, take away the Fed's power to set interest rates.
Місяць тому+1
Actually, what happened in 2009-2015 is dollars were funneled to Wall St bankster companies Blackrock and Blackstone. From there it was funneled to smaller "affiliates" across Amurika. All cash buyers so no need to take a risk on a middle class Amurikan who needed a mortgage. Naturally, Blackrock and Blackstone bought thousands of homes. Who really knows how many they bought?
Share holders can save the USA, without their money Blackrock will not be able to control housing and the economy, just take your money out of Blackrock
Місяць тому
Well, if you just said that homes didn't even reach "fair value" during the 2009 housing meltdown, and now you say prices are definitely going to adjust...are you not "gambling" that the properties you own now drop in price below the 2010-2012 lows? What am I missing?
Excellent comment. Yes, my portfolio is at risk of correcting. The value has risen substantially as the Bubble rose. I fully expect it will be affected, My portfolio produces Income, consistent monthly income without any debt. I am more concerned with the Cash flow than the Capital Gains. Further, the cash flow gives me great purchasing power to deploy Capital and leverage up when the "Buy Points" are reached. Very good analysis.......good job. Michael Douville
I am from the NYC-LI area. Unlike 2008, few will be hurt if there is a "crash." Then, unlike the media narrative, "high" prices were substantiated by salaries and didn't seem that high at the time. Now? Everyone knows it's a bubble and sales are down, down, down. Rich people know they're settling when they buy a house in a middle class area. It's sort of an open secret it's a bubble. So if there is a crash, relatively few people will see paper wealth disappear. Not great for them but same as when many of us have lost $$ on bonds or stocks. Not the end of the world. Will be same as 2008 if white collar jobs keep going away though!
We need the government to immediately reissue new/more forgivable PPP loans to orthodontic, real estate, and lawyers offices so this money can go into second homes in the sun belt to bolster prices.
With A.I. disruption the long term value of housing ~0. Until I see a real economic recovery (unlikely) or hyperinflation, I won’t buy. I refuse to compromise the prestige of area I live in. 35% cheaper to rent.
In what country? The prices in my area are continuing to explode. Way over a million for anything including fixers. Most will be priced out permanently bc price are never coming down.
Thank you for your comment. The US is a vast Country and not homogeneous. RE is always local. You must live in a very desirable location. There are locations across the US that will not be affected and may rise. In times of international turmoil, Miami does very well as foreign interest buy, same with New York and Washington. My personal belief is many overseas buyers are affecting the upper end as fear drives them into "Safe Havens". This would account for the "Average Price" rising as transaction numbers severely contract. Time will tell. 5 years from now, we will have a cleared picture. Michael Douville
Your governor in Arizona is horrible, and the state is turning blue and not nearly as investor friendly as it used to be. Crime is definitely increasing and is a problem in Arizona. There are much better states to invest in. They have lower housing cost, and the rentto return ratio is much better. You also have an accounted for the 35.1 trillion in equity that people have in real estate and the mortgage debt is around 12 or 13 so there is a huge gap.
Thank you for the comments. Arizona is similar to Utah in its natural beauty. The climate makes it so desirable. Yes, it is hot in summer, you know a "Dry Heat", very similar to a Pizza Oven! You are correct that as population grows, there are more issues. However, it is a reasonably low crime area. It might be that everyone respects the 2nd Amendment! The State Income Tax was just LOWERED to 2.6% due to a huge surplus. Rental tax was just eliminated as of Dec 31, 2024. Intel Just received an $8 Billion grant to produce new chips. Amkor just announced $2 Billion Dollar expansion BNSF Railroad just purchased 4000 acres for an Intermodal Freight center with rail and trucking. The Taiwan Chip Manufacturing Company has increased their plants from $8 Billion to $65 Billion. Phoenix was just awarded the #1 location for Manufacturing. The State of Arizona is incredibly Business Friendly. So, I am sorry. It is an amazing place to Invest with decades long growth. Michael Douville However, the population is set to double to almost 9 Million in the next 2 decades. Phoenix is attracting Chip Manufacturers and tens of thousands of very high paying jobs. Yes, there is plenty of water.
@ well that’s some very good information and I do like the state. Sadly, the prices make it so it’s not investable or at least not a good investment if you’re looking for a return unless prices dropped 50% or so.
And yes, UTAH is having a lot of the same issues as far as pricing versus the amount of rent you can charge. It’s not a good investment in UTAH either and Price would need to come down 30 to 40% or more hopefully
Arizona is overbuilt. Its become a rental hell with 4 apartment/dorm like housing on every corner.5-6 months a year over 110 and electric bills more than many mortgages.. it is not a good market nor sustainable
Thank you for your consistent thought-provoking comments. No question about it, Arizona is over-built. Happens every time the Cycle completes! There are 30,000 new rental units coming to market when the Market is slowing. It was a very good idea 2-3 years ago when the plan started, but of course, things have changed. However, there are so many positive factors in Arizona and especially Phoenix that the future looks pretty good. Phoenix is becoming a global source of Micro chips with Taiwan Semiconductor, Amkor, and Intel all building new state-of-the-art plants for over $80 Billion. and tens of thousands of tech jobs. Wall Street Journal produced a documentary on the explosive growth along the 303 Freeway. Phoenix was named the #1 location for new Manufacturing and is the #2 for Tech start ups. Phoenix was also named the #1 spot for Millennials to find careers. So, an incredible package. Thank goodness it is a "Dry Heat". LOL!!! Michael Douville
Micheal you say "not to the same extent were going to see". nobody really knows this would be the 3rd housing crash in 125 years and only the 5th in u.s history.
Great comment. Yes, that is truly CRAZY! This will be the 2nd RE Bubble in less than 18 years. What are the odds of THAT??? Not only is it another Bubble, but a Bubble of Epic proportions! Do you really think a 10 year US Treasury Bond was fairly priced at 0.65%?? 30-year mortgages at 2.5%??? Zombie BBB bonds at 3%??? Adam Smith's Invisible Hand was very visible. European Banks are in deep trouble after governments forced the buying of negative interest rate Bonds and then have rates rise....... So yes, Housing is in a tremendous bubble and prices have risen until no one can afford them. A historic return to the Mean is coming! What to do? Sell if you cannot withstand the drawdown or wait to Buy! Or a combination. My portfolio is F&C......it is just a consistent cash machine! I am waiting with my Capital Stack and my Client's until I can receive the appropriate return and be compensated for expertise and RISK! I also have had the privilege to interview many great financial minds. So many are using different methodology and coming to the same conclusion.....Uh-Oh! Michael Douville
You cannot be underwater in Phoenix. Not possible. There is no water to find! 💦 😅That’s probably gonna be the downfall of the place. It’s drying up massively.
Thank you for such an interesting topic. Newcomers to Phoenix are often confused. Yes, Phoenix is in the Sonoran Desert, but it does rain here. The Sonoran Desert is full of plants and native animals. However, Phoenix is blessed with 2 Watersheds: The Rocky Mountains and The Mogollon Rim. Never in history or asserted by the scholars, Pre-history, has both watersheds been in drought at the same time. So even in a drought, Phoenix WILL have water. On top of that, the reservoirs of the 7 Man-made lakes are full of Millions and Millions of acre feet of water. Miles and Miles of Shoreline and Miles of inlets to fish, ski, or just float and enjoy the raw natural beauty. On top of that, Phoenix receives water from the Colorado River. What a great question. Michael Douville
Your graphics are creative, but your opinion is fundamentally flawed. It overlooks essential economic principles, particularly the dynamics of supply and demand. When we account for factors such as population growth, sluggish new construction, low-interest rates, high immigration and stringent lending practices, your predicted housing crash seems implausible. I recommend you revisit basic economic concepts, perhaps starting with Economics for Dummies, and recalibrating your models accordingly.
Thank you for the advice! Yes, the RE Market is very flawed. The typical buyer of the typical Median Priced Home being built today cannot qualify for the mortgage. Hence the historic new home inventory build. Unfortunately, they cannot pay cash. A fundamental economic principle is supply and demand. There is plenty of supply for entry level, affordable homes and demand drops pretty severely as the mortgage payment rises. That may be one of the major reason home sales for 2024 probably will not reach 4 million transactions. Another verification of your Economics. Good job. Michael Douville
@@logicrules4033 I understand the thoughts. I am responsible for my client's investments. I have "Pushback" from them too. The last few years encompassed the "Accumulation Phase" and then the "Explosive Phase" where anyone owning almost any asset enjoyed remarkable and "Historic" gains! Who wouldn't want that to continue????? That is Cognitive Dissonance! Unfortunately, this craziness is ending and when the credit card is run up and maxxed-out, there is a period of Resolution........ Michael Douville
So, 35% or bigger crash in a year? Ok let’s check back then. Im gonna say prices are gonna be 5% higher. No crash in the next decade or even our lifetime.
If you've been paying attention to Zillow you'd know the prices are already declining in 2024. Some already surpassed 35%, but are still 2-3x prices from 5 years ago. I think the federal reserve will do all it can to keep the floor in place.
@@Benjamin-ol4jx Typically 30% of all listings get a price correction at some time. This is normal. In what state have home prices fallen? Where is the crash? A crash is 20% or more. House prices are up in all states and will continue to grow.
So you don’t think the homes for sale at 2MM that sold 3 years ago for $500K and flipped 3 times since then will hold their value?
That is south Florida in a nutshell.
Phoenix needs a drop much bigger than 35%.
Check the unemployment rate chart and the 10yr minus 2yr yield curve. Recession is hitting early next year. And unemployment will rise. This is what will cause people to flood the market with houses for sale. Prices will tank.
Thank you for the comment. You might be right. 35% +- should bring current affordability closer into historical ranges. Once these cycles get going, they generally over-shoot. It creates enormous opportunity if you are ready.
Good comment.
Michael Douville
Thank you for the comment. The price drop returns the Market to equilibrium. If factors deteriorate, then the equilibrium could very well be lower.
Nice comment.
Michael Douville
Phoenix is exempt from a lot of issues in other places.
- Huge amount of older people own property with no mortgage or very low interest rates. No incentive to sell. Contributes to lower supply.
- Still a growing hotbed of tech. Lots of folks still moving to Phoenix metro. Huge demand.
- Nobody is building up, so the only way to add housing is to expand outwards but many people don't want to live on the fringes. Houses in neighborhoods that people want to live will remain in high demand.
@@WilliamFisher1 majority of homes are owned by younger people. There are old person communities everywhere. Yes Arizona may have slightly more in a few areas but this had been the case in 2008 as well and look what happened. Arizona and the Phoenix area will be no different this time around. Look at the 10 yr minus 2yr yield curve and the unemployment rate chart. The charts themselves show you that they predict recessions and we have one coming just around the corner. And it’s gunna be a doozy. The yield curve has been inverted deep and for a longer period of time and will lead do longer and deeper recession. People act like people have been calling the recession for such a long time now when in reality, the timing is right on track. It takes about 2 years for fiscal and monetary policy to be seen in the macro economy. We’re riding a knife edge right now. Be a little patient. It will surely come.
Thank God my home closes tomorrow, I'll be sitting on the sideline's waiting!
@@j.f.7576 great timing on selling
Great financial analysis at 15:00 Analysis matches the ballpark estimate of overpricing in real estate across America
If you own a home, prices are steady to up a little. If you are looking for a home, prices are crazy high. If you’re on the sidelines waiting and watching videos like yours… a crash is just around the corner, for atleast the last 3-4 years.
Prices have been dropping for the last few months from what I've seen on Zillow. Then there's maybe 5% of properties that have been listed for several years without any price drops.
I suspect that the federal reserve will do everything in its power to keep prices artificially high to prevent true price discovery. I don't think we've recovered from the 90's bubble.
Thank you for the comment. I bought a ton of properties 2020-2022 and stopped buying when my model peaked. I made a lot of money and so far, have kept it.
Farmers do not plant seeds in Winter. I am expecting a bumper crop coming in the Spring when I will buy like crazy!!!
Michael Douville
What's coming will be worse than '08. If home buyers have the patience to wait they can get a good deal. It's going to be years though. Not next year. Most people don't know that the Twin Towers in NYC had very low vacancy before they were destroyed.
There is way too much cumulative inflation combined with government mortgage debt forbearance, loan modifications, foreclosure stopages, on and on. Deflation in home prices & property taxes will NOT be allowed. The housing market is fully socialized now.
I'm in Florida on the coast.. already lost 15-17% on my home and falling fast. So this is not accurate at all. Imagine the blue cities in a year if Florida is doing this already
@ this is a florida and austin, tx story only tho
Regardless of price, there is a large percentage of the population that do not want to buy homes. Even if there is a big price drop a lot of people don’t want to be responsible for the upkeep or taxes and insurance.
Thank you for the great comment. Yes, they are my customers! it is a very good symbiotic relationship. I provide a Clean, Safe, and Friendly house, and they lease it from me and make it their home!
Michael Douville
at some point you have to actually make a prediction. You cannot keep saying "the big crash and huge buying opportunity is coming...next year" LOL! Meanwhile home sell prices still going up in 2024 in most markets.
Supply and demand drives the market. NEED supply!!!!
Thank you for the comment. Yes, there is a huge shortage of affordable homes.
If all cars were $150,000, most of us would all be walking!
Michel Douville
You speak very nicely, I like your video very much Come and answer my words
Your research assistant should get a raise.
Ive been following RE gurus for awhile, this guys good
Thank you for the kind words.
Michael Douville
It will have to drop much more than that to forestall Bastille II.
Selling BAC as they have billions of unrealized losses. Their financial statemenst are not mark to market. Holding billions of mortgage bonds when the bonds were bought at 2.75% and what are those bonds worth mark to market
Holy crap. Someone honest
Good. Bubbles need to pop so young people can afford a house again. To prevent this in future, take away the Fed's power to set interest rates.
Actually, what happened in 2009-2015 is dollars were funneled to Wall St bankster companies Blackrock and Blackstone. From there it was funneled to smaller "affiliates" across Amurika. All cash buyers so no need to take a risk on a middle class Amurikan who needed a mortgage. Naturally, Blackrock and Blackstone bought thousands of homes. Who really knows how many they bought?
Share holders can save the USA, without their money Blackrock will not be able to control housing and the economy, just take your money out of Blackrock
Well, if you just said that homes didn't even reach "fair value" during the 2009 housing meltdown, and now you say prices are definitely going to adjust...are you not "gambling" that the properties you own now drop in price below the 2010-2012 lows? What am I missing?
Excellent comment. Yes, my portfolio is at risk of correcting. The value has risen substantially as the Bubble rose. I fully expect it will be affected,
My portfolio produces Income, consistent monthly income without any debt. I am more concerned with the Cash flow than the Capital Gains. Further, the cash flow gives me great purchasing power to deploy Capital and leverage up when the "Buy Points" are reached.
Very good analysis.......good job.
Michael Douville
I am from the NYC-LI area. Unlike 2008, few will be hurt if there is a "crash." Then, unlike the media narrative, "high" prices were substantiated by salaries and didn't seem that high at the time. Now? Everyone knows it's a bubble and sales are down, down, down. Rich people know they're settling when they buy a house in a middle class area. It's sort of an open secret it's a bubble. So if there is a crash, relatively few people will see paper wealth disappear. Not great for them but same as when many of us have lost $$ on bonds or stocks. Not the end of the world. Will be same as 2008 if white collar jobs keep going away though!
Interesting point...you anticipate no particular pain.
We need the government to immediately reissue new/more forgivable PPP loans to orthodontic, real estate, and lawyers offices so this money can go into second homes in the sun belt to bolster prices.
Great Idea. We would all have beautiful smiles while we were signing deeds at out Attorney's office.
Michael Douville
Florida needs a 40% cut!
With A.I. disruption the long term value of housing ~0. Until I see a real economic recovery (unlikely) or hyperinflation, I won’t buy.
I refuse to compromise the prestige of area I live in. 35% cheaper to rent.
California need to drop 75%
Would be nice
So does NJ
👍🏼
In what country? The prices in my area are continuing to explode. Way over a million for anything including fixers. Most will be priced out permanently bc price are never coming down.
Spoken with true inexperience.
Thank you for your comment. The US is a vast Country and not homogeneous. RE is always local. You must live in a very desirable location. There are locations across the US that will not be affected and may rise. In times of international turmoil, Miami does very well as foreign interest buy, same with New York and Washington. My personal belief is many overseas buyers are affecting the upper end as fear drives them into "Safe Havens". This would account for the "Average Price" rising as transaction numbers severely contract.
Time will tell. 5 years from now, we will have a cleared picture.
Michael Douville
I’ll take that bet. The charlatans never learn
These same sentiments were strong in 2005-2007. Then they pulled the rug out from everyone
Fantastic response!
80 days over 110 is not a great climate at all. Then chilly, gray winters.. sorry. Arizona is not a great climate anymore. Chemtrails daily
Your governor in Arizona is horrible, and the state is turning blue and not nearly as investor friendly as it used to be. Crime is definitely increasing and is a problem in Arizona. There are much better states to invest in. They have lower housing cost, and the rentto return ratio is much better. You also have an accounted for the 35.1 trillion in equity that people have in real estate and the mortgage debt is around 12 or 13 so there is a huge gap.
Thank you for the comments. Arizona is similar to Utah in its natural beauty. The climate makes it so desirable. Yes, it is hot in summer, you know a "Dry Heat", very similar to a Pizza Oven! You are correct that as population grows, there are more issues. However, it is a reasonably low crime area. It might be that everyone respects the 2nd Amendment!
The State Income Tax was just LOWERED to 2.6% due to a huge surplus.
Rental tax was just eliminated as of Dec 31, 2024.
Intel Just received an $8 Billion grant to produce new chips.
Amkor just announced $2 Billion Dollar expansion
BNSF Railroad just purchased 4000 acres for an Intermodal Freight center with rail and trucking.
The Taiwan Chip Manufacturing Company has increased their plants from $8 Billion to $65 Billion.
Phoenix was just awarded the #1 location for Manufacturing.
The State of Arizona is incredibly Business Friendly.
So, I am sorry. It is an amazing place to Invest with decades long growth.
Michael Douville
However, the population is set to double to almost 9 Million in the next 2 decades. Phoenix is attracting Chip Manufacturers and tens of thousands of very high paying jobs. Yes, there is plenty of water.
@ well that’s some very good information and I do like the state. Sadly, the prices make it so it’s not investable or at least not a good investment if you’re looking for a return unless prices dropped 50% or so.
And yes, UTAH is having a lot of the same issues as far as pricing versus the amount of rent you can charge. It’s not a good investment in UTAH either and Price would need to come down 30 to 40% or more hopefully
Arizona is overbuilt. Its become a rental hell with 4 apartment/dorm like housing on every corner.5-6 months a year over 110 and electric bills more than many mortgages.. it is not a good market nor sustainable
Thank you for your consistent thought-provoking comments. No question about it, Arizona is over-built. Happens every time the Cycle completes! There are 30,000 new rental units coming to market when the Market is slowing. It was a very good idea 2-3 years ago when the plan started, but of course, things have changed.
However, there are so many positive factors in Arizona and especially Phoenix that the future looks pretty good. Phoenix is becoming a global source of Micro chips with Taiwan Semiconductor, Amkor, and Intel all building new state-of-the-art plants for over $80 Billion. and tens of thousands of tech jobs. Wall Street Journal produced a documentary on the explosive growth along the 303 Freeway. Phoenix was named the #1 location for new Manufacturing and is the #2 for Tech start ups.
Phoenix was also named the #1 spot for Millennials to find careers.
So, an incredible package.
Thank goodness it is a "Dry Heat". LOL!!!
Michael Douville
Micheal you say "not to the same extent were going to see". nobody really knows this would be the 3rd housing crash in 125 years and only the 5th in u.s history.
Great comment. Yes, that is truly CRAZY! This will be the 2nd RE Bubble in less than 18 years. What are the odds of THAT??? Not only is it another Bubble, but a Bubble of Epic proportions! Do you really think a 10 year US Treasury Bond was fairly priced at 0.65%?? 30-year mortgages at 2.5%??? Zombie BBB bonds at 3%??? Adam Smith's Invisible Hand was very visible.
European Banks are in deep trouble after governments forced the buying of negative interest rate Bonds and then have rates rise.......
So yes, Housing is in a tremendous bubble and prices have risen until no one can afford them. A historic return to the Mean is coming! What to do? Sell if you cannot withstand the drawdown or wait to Buy! Or a combination.
My portfolio is F&C......it is just a consistent cash machine! I am waiting with my Capital Stack and my Client's until I can receive the appropriate return and be compensated for expertise and RISK!
I also have had the privilege to interview many great financial minds. So many are using different methodology and coming to the same conclusion.....Uh-Oh!
Michael Douville
Seattle is Way over priced!
You cannot be underwater in Phoenix. Not possible. There is no water to find! 💦 😅That’s probably gonna be the downfall of the place. It’s drying up massively.
Thank you for such an interesting topic. Newcomers to Phoenix are often confused.
Yes, Phoenix is in the Sonoran Desert, but it does rain here. The Sonoran Desert is full of plants and native animals. However, Phoenix is blessed with 2 Watersheds: The Rocky Mountains and The Mogollon Rim. Never in history or asserted by the scholars, Pre-history, has both watersheds been in drought at the same time. So even in a drought, Phoenix WILL have water. On top of that, the reservoirs of the 7 Man-made lakes are full of Millions and Millions of acre feet of water. Miles and Miles of Shoreline and Miles of inlets to fish, ski, or just float and enjoy the raw natural beauty. On top of that, Phoenix receives water from the Colorado River.
What a great question.
Michael Douville
Things will slow down more because of the president elect.
Your graphics are creative, but your opinion is fundamentally flawed. It overlooks essential economic principles, particularly the dynamics of supply and demand. When we account for factors such as population growth, sluggish new construction, low-interest rates, high immigration and stringent lending practices, your predicted housing crash seems implausible. I recommend you revisit basic economic concepts, perhaps starting with Economics for Dummies, and recalibrating your models accordingly.
These are facts as you laid them out. The doom and gloom click bait videos are insane. This is not 2008
Thank you for the advice! Yes, the RE Market is very flawed. The typical buyer of the typical Median Priced Home being built today cannot qualify for the mortgage. Hence the historic new home inventory build.
Unfortunately, they cannot pay cash. A fundamental economic principle is supply and demand. There is plenty of supply for entry level, affordable homes and demand drops pretty severely as the mortgage payment rises. That may be one of the major reason home sales for 2024 probably will not reach 4 million transactions. Another verification of your Economics.
Good job.
Michael Douville
@@michaeldouville690classy 👌
@@logicrules4033 I understand the thoughts. I am responsible for my client's investments. I have "Pushback" from them too. The last few years encompassed the "Accumulation Phase" and then the "Explosive Phase" where anyone owning almost any asset enjoyed remarkable and "Historic" gains! Who wouldn't want that to continue????? That is Cognitive Dissonance!
Unfortunately, this craziness is ending and when the credit card is run up and maxxed-out, there is a period of Resolution........
Michael Douville
lol their won’t be a crash get real
So, 35% or bigger crash in a year? Ok let’s check back then. Im gonna say prices are gonna be 5% higher. No crash in the next decade or even our lifetime.
😂
@ let’s get your prediction in writing. How big of a crash and by when.
If you've been paying attention to Zillow you'd know the prices are already declining in 2024. Some already surpassed 35%, but are still 2-3x prices from 5 years ago.
I think the federal reserve will do all it can to keep the floor in place.
@@Benjamin-ol4jx Typically 30% of all listings get a price correction at some time. This is normal. In what state have home prices fallen? Where is the crash? A crash is 20% or more. House prices are up in all states and will continue to grow.
@timursalikov5911 Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma. The ones I've been looking at.