I don't think we've had any horse fatalities at Churchill on KD DAY. WEATHER it's pouring rain or a dry surface. Our Churchill downs track superintendent of the surface will have the track sealed or raked. We will be in good shape for the start of the Kentucky Derby. Major
So I just made a number of parlays with the Denver Nuggets winning the championship and either the Miami Heat or Philadelphia 76ers winning the East. If the Boston Celtics gets upset, it’s going to pay big. Heat are currently 55-1 to win the East while the Sixers are 12-1. The parlays includes my Derby longshots and the payouts are anywhere from $1000-$4000 from $1 bets. I covered like 10 horses + a repeat of last year’s NBA Finals with Nuggets the champions and Heat winning the East. My longshots - Honor Marie +1600 Resilience +2000 Stronghold +2500 My top 10 + Denver/Miami 1. Sierra Leone pays $1K 2. Stronghold pays $4.6K 3. Honor Marie pays $3.7K 4. Resilience pays $3K 5. Fierceness pays $1K 6. Catching Freedom pays $1.8K 7. Just Steel pays $4.6K 8. Forever Young pays $1.6K 9. Dornoch pays $2.3K 10. Just A Touch pays $3K Endlessly and Encino are ones I decided not to wager on. I’m hoping the Derby winner is within that 10 horses I listed, but knowing my bad luck, watch it won’t be. There are some other bets involving Stronghold + which NBA team wins next out for their Game 3 or which teams wins their First Round matchup. Minimum payout is $1000. The last bet, I decided to NOT include Sierra Leone. He’s my pick but I have a feeling he comes in 3rd. It’s that Zandon/Angel of Empire feeling I’m getting from him. So on Derby Day, I’m going to put a $60 show on him. That should pay $150 if it’s $5x30. Sierra Leone is my instant cash. I really don’t understand why there’s no hype with Stronghold? Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie are coming from way out of it. Stronghold will be well placed. And did you see Honor Marie’s bullet workout? He’s looking ready to go! While Sierra Leone is my Derby horse, most of my parlays does NOT involve him because I can’t take +300 on a horse I’m not sure he gets there on time. And the pace may NOT be brutal compared to the last two. Most of my parlays are centered around Stronghold at 25-1 and Honor Marie at 16-1. Then Resilience at 20-1. Stronghold is looking like the most slept on Santa Anita Derby winner of recent times thanks to that 89 Beyer. I’ve only spent $37. I’ll spend another $60 cash on Derby Day with Sierra Leone to show. I feel cursed since Maximum Security was disqualified in 2019. I watch different ‘cappers on UA-cam picking win candidates. There’s like a few of them while horses like Stronghold should be used for the bottom. F that! It’s anybody’s race since Rich Strike won it. And Mage wasn’t exactly on a lot of people’s top 5 last year with his 94 BSF and 3 starts (0 as a 2YO). Hindsight is always 20/20. Hence, why Mage was 15-1 and not among the top 5 betting choices and this was after Forte was scratched. I’ve seen and gambled on nearly 30 Derbies and it’s never that simple. People can look like a smartass at this moment but wait when next Saturday’s race is over. Lots of torn tickets and kicking themselves for not picking or including that one particular horse. So many different ways losing this race but there’s only one way to win and that’s finishing 1st. Honor Marie is looking live, folks. Has one of the best pedigrees to win it and already owns a win at Churchill. Actually, two wins. He broke his maiden there and won a graded stakes race. Both he and Stronghold have wins at CD. That’s always a plus in a race like this.
Exacta boxed last year kd Mage+Phil + win ticket on Mage Forte up the track. And Tapit it twice up the track. There will be closers. I do not think Fierceness will get it on the front end... Unless its raining Sierra Leone or Forever Young or the huge closer Catching Freedom
Looks like some terrible news weather wise for Derby Day. Wednesday is the last day of forecast rain, which means by Saturday the track might be rock hard again like last year, and at Churchill that's an unnaturally hard surface for animals that weigh as much as horses weigh. There's just no way to handicap on a track when it will hurt a lot of the runners, and you won't know which ones it will hurt.
Thank you, Mike!
thanks Mike
I don't think we've had any horse fatalities at Churchill on KD DAY.
WEATHER it's pouring rain or a
dry surface. Our Churchill downs
track superintendent of the surface
will have the track sealed or raked.
We will be in good shape for the start of the Kentucky Derby.
Major
So I just made a number of parlays with the Denver Nuggets winning the championship and either the Miami Heat or Philadelphia 76ers winning the East. If the Boston Celtics gets upset, it’s going to pay big.
Heat are currently 55-1 to win the East while the Sixers are 12-1. The parlays includes my Derby longshots and the payouts are anywhere from $1000-$4000 from $1 bets. I covered like 10 horses + a repeat of last year’s NBA Finals with Nuggets the champions and Heat winning the East.
My longshots -
Honor Marie +1600
Resilience +2000
Stronghold +2500
My top 10 + Denver/Miami
1. Sierra Leone pays $1K
2. Stronghold pays $4.6K
3. Honor Marie pays $3.7K
4. Resilience pays $3K
5. Fierceness pays $1K
6. Catching Freedom pays $1.8K
7. Just Steel pays $4.6K
8. Forever Young pays $1.6K
9. Dornoch pays $2.3K
10. Just A Touch pays $3K
Endlessly and Encino are ones I decided not to wager on. I’m hoping the Derby winner is within that 10 horses I listed, but knowing my bad luck, watch it won’t be.
There are some other bets involving Stronghold + which NBA team wins next out for their Game 3 or which teams wins their First Round matchup. Minimum payout is $1000.
The last bet, I decided to NOT include Sierra Leone. He’s my pick but I have a feeling he comes in 3rd. It’s that Zandon/Angel of Empire feeling I’m getting from him. So on Derby Day, I’m going to put a $60 show on him. That should pay $150 if it’s $5x30. Sierra Leone is my instant cash.
I really don’t understand why there’s no hype with Stronghold? Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie are coming from way out of it. Stronghold will be well placed. And did you see Honor Marie’s bullet workout? He’s looking ready to go!
While Sierra Leone is my Derby horse, most of my parlays does NOT involve him because I can’t take +300 on a horse I’m not sure he gets there on time. And the pace may NOT be brutal compared to the last two. Most of my parlays are centered around Stronghold at 25-1 and Honor Marie at 16-1. Then Resilience at 20-1.
Stronghold is looking like the most slept on Santa Anita Derby winner of recent times thanks to that 89 Beyer. I’ve only spent $37. I’ll spend another $60 cash on Derby Day with Sierra Leone to show. I feel cursed since Maximum Security was disqualified in 2019.
I watch different ‘cappers on UA-cam picking win candidates. There’s like a few of them while horses like Stronghold should be used for the bottom. F that! It’s anybody’s race since Rich Strike won it. And Mage wasn’t exactly on a lot of people’s top 5 last year with his 94 BSF and 3 starts (0 as a 2YO). Hindsight is always 20/20. Hence, why Mage was 15-1 and not among the top 5 betting choices and this was after Forte was scratched.
I’ve seen and gambled on nearly 30 Derbies and it’s never that simple. People can look like a smartass at this moment but wait when next Saturday’s race is over. Lots of torn tickets and kicking themselves for not picking or including that one particular horse. So many different ways losing this race but there’s only one way to win and that’s finishing 1st.
Honor Marie is looking live, folks. Has one of the best pedigrees to win it and already owns a win at Churchill. Actually, two wins. He broke his maiden there and won a graded stakes race. Both he and Stronghold have wins at CD. That’s always a plus in a race like this.
Absolutely loved the work from Honor Marie. But did he go too fast? 🤔
Yes
to be honest with yeah.
Sierra Leone or fierceness all your other picks are 2nd stringers.
Especially Stronghold...
Exacta boxed last year kd
Mage+Phil + win ticket on Mage
Forte up the track. And Tapit it twice up the track.
There will be closers.
I do not think Fierceness will get it on the front end... Unless its raining
Sierra Leone or Forever Young or the huge closer Catching Freedom
The closers will be flying
Looks like some terrible news weather wise for Derby Day. Wednesday is the last day of forecast rain, which means by Saturday the track might be rock hard again like last year, and at Churchill that's an unnaturally hard surface for animals that weigh as much as horses weigh. There's just no way to handicap on a track when it will hurt a lot of the runners, and you won't know which ones it will hurt.
Mother Nature....