The Numbers: With Liberal friends like these...
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- Опубліковано 21 вер 2024
- This week, Philippe and I chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling out of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, we answer some mailbag questions and Philippe puts me to the test with The Quiz.
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Paying more in carbon tax than one gets back is correct, not factually wrong. What the PBO has said is that, at current rates, most people will get back more in direct tax cost which are limited to what one pays in carbon tax on fuelling your vehicle and heating your home. Those are the only direct costs. What the PBO has also said is that most people will pay a lot more when all costs, including indirect are included. Indirect carbon tax costs include the additional amount for food, clothes, any product that has been transported on a truck, stored in a building that is heated by natural gas or heating oil or that gets electricity from natural gas or coal (not many left). That encompasses everything imaginable as all products have been transported at one time or other by truck or stored in a building - everything !my daughter, who is in university, gets the full rebate and uses it to pay for flights back to mom and dad, or pay for food. She has not used the rebate to buy an EV or install solar panels on the roof of her rental apartment! In other words the rebate does not affect behaviour, it is used to make ends meet on day to day life. I do not get any rebate - but if I do buy solar panels or an EV the government will give me a big cheque that ultimately came from people with less $ than me and small business. The "green" industry benefits the rich far more than the poor.
everything is on a truck at some point in the chain, you dont own anything that hasnt, EVERYTHING is on a truck at sometime, it has to cause price inflation
Why is the second PBO report always ignored when the carbon tax is discussed? When all costs are considered most Canadians are worse off with the tax. Our GDP per capita falls with each increase as well.
It's hard to run away from the evidence that shows a carbon tax makes society poorer with each increase. And the increases will never stop.
The plain and simple fact is that the carbon tax ADDS to the cost of EVERY good and service in Canada, because the tax adds increased costs to producing, manufacturing, handling, storing, transporting, and selling those goods and services. No rebate is covering those increased costs, thus BY DEFINITION the carbon tax is not neutral. Why this is difficult for anyone to grasp is beyond me - it does not require a degree in economics to understand.
"When both fiscal and economic impacts of the federal fuel charge are considered, we estimate that most households will see a net loss. Based on our analysis, most households will pay more in fuel charges and GST-as well as receiving slightly lower incomes-than they will receive in Climate Action Incentive payments." the parliamentary budget officer. The Government isn't being honest about the Carbon tax. I think most Canadians intuit that a tax handled by this government would never be a net winner for their pocket book.
The PBO found that the rebate is greater than what Canadians pay in carbon tax, but that their calculations of those "economic impacts" is what puts it in the red. How that was calculated has been disputed, in part because it does not take into account the economic impacts of alternative policies or no policy whatsoever.
If you look at the tables in the report www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/publications/RP-2223-028-S--distributional-analysis-federal-fuel-charge-under-2030-emissions-reduction-plan--analyse-distributive-redevance-federale-combustibles-dans-cadre-plan-reduction-emissions-2030 and scroll down to the tables starting on page six, you'll see that the "fiscal impact only" shows that most Canadians are net beneficiaries of the tax. It's the "fiscal and economic impacts" that show that it is a net cost. But, again, those are based on assumptions including things like reduced investment or lower wages, and those comparison are against an alternate universe where there is no environmental policy in place at all. But it doesn't take into account what economic impact NO policy would have, including to our global competitiveness, etc.
It can be debated whether Canadians are better off or not because of the tax, but the PBO report unequivocally shows that the rebate is greater than the tax paid by most Canadians. Is it greater than the broader, intangible and indirect impacts? Maybe not. But Philippe is correct in what he said.
@@TheWrit I never said Phillipe was Incorrect about what he said. I said the government wasn't being honest about the carbon tax system and I believe people are intuiting what the PBO found. This 2 part back and forth was more honest to the carbon pricing conversation then anything the government has done thus far. The average person I talk to intuits that it can't be a money maker with "this government". If the government were willing to have framed this honestly, as a painful tax mitigated by a rebate program they would have stood a chance. The fact that me quoting the PBO for more nuance about the tax. lead to you thinking I was trying to "debunk" straight money in and out. shows exactly how shallow the conversation is and how silly the Government looks on the position. A Punitive tax to adjust behavior is being framed as an affordability program while voters have little faith in the current administration especially JT.
@@ninjasquirrelstudios That's fair - apologies if I was a bit defensive. This comes up every time we chat about the carbon tax!
@@TheWrit No worries! I get where you are coming from and looking at my comment, I can see why, I probably should have started with my assertion about peoples intuition as opposed to quoting the PBO since that is so captured by partisanship. Anyway Keep up the awesome podcast! always look forward to hearing another persons take on the numbers.
Phillipe perhaps should have qualified what he said at least with reference to the PBO report as opposed to dismissing it out of hand.
It's ultimately as stated a major communication failure of the Liberals, now at $80 and rising people are seeing serious dollars on their utility statements.
22 billion was collected from the carbon tax in 2023. less than 1% of that was returned to struggling small businesses. Thousands already shut down, thousands more will shutdown as various taxes come in on alcohol, carbon and other things.
It's easy to say that people don't understand, or don't care, that there is a bigger picture. It's easy to say that you get more out of it than you give. The reality is most people are struggling. People can do basic map and run a family budget. I do. I don't get more. I look at my heating bills in the winter and the portion of carbon tax is literally 95% of what I pay in natural gas.
Example, when you look at your enbridge bill, ignore all the dumb fees. Focus on the actual cost of the natural gas. So on a 200$ bill, my actual cost in gas is 30$ My carbon tax is 28$. Then there are all the fees from which they milk us for profit. On top of that, I'll pay HST. So at the end of the day, cost in taxes are higher than my actual need for natural gas. So just with my heating bill, I basically burn through most of my rebate. I go at the pump every week because I work 30 mins from home.
People can see that. No one is happy. I'll ask around at work, the majority of people don't even see or know we get rebates. Nor do they care. Because they see the cost of the carbon tax every day, everywhere. On food items that doubled in price, at the 1.50/1.60 gas pump etc.
On top of that, you have tone deft government policies that tell you about how great they are and they did for the middle class, you have taxes going up every year. The right thing to do, if you really want to keep the carbon tax in, would be to at least wait. Freeze it for a bit, give people a break. Appear to care.
On the other side, there is the fact that the carbon tax did not accomplish what it was meant to accomplish. People can't afford 100k electric cars, not everyone can just walk or bicycle to work. We did not meet any of our targets. So how can you even sell a failed policy as necessary.
They talked about "legacy" Brian Mulroney did the unpopular thing and today we've realized it was good. NAFTA. NAFTA was not a tax when people are cutting back on food and necessities.
The US is doing great strides on the environment and they're doing it without a carbon tax.
So at this point, its clear that people don't like it and they don't want it. In a democracy, the people are supposed to decide and have a voice. They have a voice everyday not once every 4 years. Politicians would do better to listen. Sometimes it is better to listen, adapt and find different ways. The liberals do not listen and have not been listening in a long time. This is why the polls are like this and this is why they will most likely be annihilated in the next election.
My personal opinions is, once again, it's all fluff and no value. Alberta is doing great with carbon capture, some companies came up with smart and affordable ways to help the environment that actual work. They've been tossed aside because they don't fit the narrow liberal vision. Whatever replaced plastic is worst than what it was. It's unhealthy for people and will end up in the trash anyway. Not recycling. So find ways to improve recycling. How about, for example, providing actual closed lid bins for Ontarians? In qc I had 3 large bins. Recycling, compost and trash. The city provided it. They picked up recycling and compost every week, trash every 3 weeks. In Ontario, trey provide small open containers. The park looks like a landfill. Recycling and plastic flies away overnight. It's disgusting. So why not come up with a national program to provide everyone with closed bins and proper ways to recycle or dispose of trash. Europeans and other countries already came up with that. Why don't we focus in changing the layouts of Canadian cities, to be more eco-friendly, plants on high rise buildings, smart type of cities.
The environment is important and something needs to be done. The way its been implemented is horrible and was doomed from the start. Make it incremental, make it so that people will see and enjoy the changes. Learn how to sell it, stop demonizing the other side. Work with provinces, don't impose. That's my very long 30 cents.
I'm not going to debate whether a person gets more back than they pay because I live in BC. I don't think I have ever received money back from my provincial government so to me it is just a revenue generator and bad policy.
Edit: Mainstreet had the BCCP up quite a bit yesterday, in the 30s. Could be an outlier or could be right, I don't know. BC United does seem to walking into obscurity though.
Nobody gets mote back than what they paid so just leave us have our own money
If it a wealth transfer scheme, which it is, it raises the cost of everything.
Like the unbiased truth you put about the polls. Plus like watching Eric's reaction and struggling with the quiz.
The impression that in the Prairies is both "true" & factually incorrect! Most people get more in the carbon rebate because if you live in an apartment and are retired and use public transit - you will get a rebate larger than you pay in carbon tax. But if you live in rural Canada or a farmer and use natural gas to dry your crop you will pay much more. So it is factually true - most voters will get more back than they pay directly in the carbon tax - but those who pay and use it like farmers or trucking companies you really pay much more. Numerically less people pay more than they receive back BUT many farmers pay $10,000 or more in Carbon Tax - a smaller number than "most" pay much more than they receive in rebates & they tell their friends who tell their friends ... !
Éric rocking his Treaty of Algeron sweater today.
Obviously you don't have a clue how much it costs overall because there is so many hidden costs involved. Not to mention the 200 million to administer the tax. Its a ridiculous tax to begin with. Carbon is not pollution. Do some research and quit listening to the narrative.