The Most BEARISH Scenario Right Now
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- Опубліковано 26 кві 2024
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The law of diminishing returns is 100% legit. But for this cycle, we cannot ignore "the law of adoption". Adoption by the biggest institutions, super nations like China and Russia, etc. The real outcome would be a combination of "the law of diminishing return and the law of adoption". Yes, this cycle is very different and the beginning of Bitcoin Age II.
The available liquidity that China or Russia or any other country that can utilize cryptocurrency is the limitation that determines price appreciation levels along with upper boundary limits that for most altcoins can readily be understood to be either BTC's market value and/or Ethereum's market value price. Anyone projecting pricing that exceeds the current BTC market capitalization is incorrect until someone can actually exceed that number, which historically no one has been able to do from the beginning of 2008. Historically, the adoption or restriction from any country even the USA has not been able to alter pricing of BTC beyond one standard deviation of the normal price change of BTC. Price drops of over 20% in less than a week is routine and price rises above 50% has been the norm in the 2023-2024 season. Seasonal, bull, and bear market forces have larger force effects exceeding 70% in either direction.
Adoption as a store of value.. but let's be honest here, what percentage of the rich folk will want to buy a virtual asset for a higher price than physical gold?
@@duncanmacleod7287 Value exists only in human mind. In Stone Age, gold was as good as the granite stone next to it. Humans at that time had no perception of gold as valuable thing. In ancient Egypt, silver was considered more valuable than Gold.
If all the Bitcoin influencers, yourselves, Max Keiser, Saylor, etc start referring to Bitcoin as Satoshis and the price is quoted in Satoshi it may make it more appealing and affordable for newcomers to start buying it. In the same way a stock is split. This is counter to Warren Buffett's view on stock splits which is why BRK-A shares trade at around $600k, making it unaffordable for most people to own one BRK-A share.
Perhaps this could be proposed at the next Bitcoin convention. You're welcome.
The trader doesn't think so if he gives it a 25% chance.
He expects higher.
Michael, the guy who predicted a crash last october ? His predictions got burried. 😂
Was that Peter Schiff? haha
gareth saloway was also saying that bitcoin was going to 12K
Gareth is 100% correct 20% of the time
yeah that dude's gotta go.. perma crypto bear in sheeps clothing.. consistently wrong
Hard to take him seriously with that ridiculous man bun😅
That's what every famous trader with NO reputation to lose says these days
What are the advantages of an ETF?
You put money in...
You take money out...
No Bitcoin changes hands.
Nothing happens to Bitcoin.
@@junipersnow1
When you buy or sell shares in the ETF.
Nothing changes with the actual assets the Bank holds.
They don't get rid of their holdings because you sell your ETF.
They aren't going to sell BTC when you sell your BTC ETF...
So how does it affect the price of Bitcoin?
@@onestopfunstop317 If you redeem it where the selling of it come into affecting the bitcoin price. this is what the greyscale ETF are doing redeeming not selling.
Wait till Hong Kong starts their Spot ETF
The herd says it wont do much
I don't see a reason to sell based on that. We might have seen the top. But I think we are in a slight pullback until mid May where the markets will bottom out. I am seeing an alt coin summer on the horizon and on the charts. My Bitcoin target this cycle was 150k. It might have been based on diminishing tops. Bitcoin typically doubles every 4 years if you buy at the peak. It is at least a 4 year hold if you want it. I feel like social media has synchronized the markets and if it was obvious that it was a top, Bitcoin would crash. The goal is to diversify Bitcoin and alts to where if the expected return hits with Bitcoin that is there within that year, you rebalance and diversify into alternative asset classes that haven't reached their expected return. Right now bonds and stocks are in sync due to inflation. Then in counter to it, gold and commodities are inversely correlated. They raise rates to curb inflation and they lower rates to incentivize growth. The times those change we typically see stocks and commodities correlate and bonds and gold correlate. But the key takeaway is that right now Bitcoin is correlated with stocks due to it being in a sense an emerging market. I have to go now.
Steve from crypto crew University had the 5.3 theory, where you divide the percentage gains from each cycle by 5.3 and it gives you the gains of the following cycle. That would top us out at 79k. He's been talking about this for about a year now.
How much is the advance in total usd value during the bull markets?
Based on diminishing cycle low multiple on bitbo charts, looks like cycle top would be btwn 75k to 150k. Especially since ETF inflows are flat since March 15.
Does it matter when we top if we holding till 2030?
Exactly
Well said
If you are holding for six years why on earth are you watching these crypto grifters every day?
@@am7373 Toby is not a grifter
@am7373 I happen to like Toby
You can’t deny that this post ETF price has been very disappointing.
Not even close!
For a world gone insane, always good to listen to yall and get some real information great job !
Ethereum just beginning 💪
Great video thanks
Thanks!
Fun fact, the halving has nothing to do with the price rocketing, it is purely a coincidence. It has everything to do with the start of a new liquidity cycle however.
The parabolic run didn’t even start yet😂😂😂😂😂😂
How do make your videos go away? Is there a block button I just can't find?
Leaving comments probably confuses the algorithm to think you want to keep watching.
That was a switch. FUD even gets to veterans in the space.
IMO next pump will be May/June my bags are packed.
ATH before halving means we are having a super cycle this time. Get ready.
nice back drop Toby!
They always say , sell in may and run away
If that was true, look at the last halving. You would have missed out on everything 😂
That’s for stocks clown
@@MochaZilla BTC was 50% below previous ATH in halving day during the last cycle. Plus diminishing returns are an actual thing. People believe money's gonna rain on BTC but what sane rich person will want to buy a digital/virtual asset at a higher price than physical gold? I don't see it but feel free to tell me where the money's gonna come from.
I did the sell in May thing 2 years in a row. Worked. Now everybody on socials are reciting this line. Everyone. Im staying in this year because the masses are always wrong
Agree with you, this does seem like an escalated bull market. I do think we will have an earlier top.
...so.... USD got the bottom?
My experience having followed Peter Brandt for several years and also having read his books is that he is a highly skilled classical chartist. His knowledge of chart patterns is extensive as is his personal experience of some 50+ years in the Commodity Futures game. The fact that after all this time he is still trading, having grown his account instead of blowing up, speaks volumes about his skills.
Since his current predictions are based on analysis more so than being based in reading actual chart patterns, Peter may be well over his skis. If his prediction of a market top was based on a specific chart pattern I would sit up and take notice but this is not the case here IMHO. Only time will tell if his prognostication abilities match his chart reading skills...
This is important information and he's not the only one saying it. It may also be the case as some have speculated that the cycles are getting longer and the ath we just had was the completion of the 2021 cycle. Another thing to bare in mind is that BTC is no longer a retail market. Bitcoin is now a TradFi, market. Wall Street front run retail this time and how high Bitcoin goes is in their hands more than ever. Until the supply runs dry they would rather see lower prices so they have every incentive to send the price lower because they're not done buying. The supply shock is real but the otc price isn't reflecting that.
Trad-fi huh 🤔
@@321Tdog Traditional finance is going after Bitcoin. The central bank's are directly threatened by BTC. They tried to ban and block it but that didn't work so now they want yo own enough to control the market. There is more of a coordinated effort by Grayscale and BlackRock etc than people appreciate. More and more they will have the ability to move the market and manipulate price. Because of this traditional cycle indicators may become less reliable when retail were chiefly responsible for price action. I'm sure they will and possibly already are suppressing the price of BTC just like the do with gold and silver. Either way, being aware of the rapidly increasing influence of the enemy within is becoming increasingly more important.
God bless both of you my dude
If this is the case what’s the point of investing in BTC ? As long as you are yielding 15% per year you may as well stay in equities such as the magnificent 7 .
Toby and Heidi the worst thing that happened to precious metals was/is the Government, ie COMEX. Do you think that bitcoin was better off without "trading" on the NYSE? Can the government manipulate bitcoin like they have gold and silver over the years? decades??
It is intriguing. The longer this cycle goes, the more cautious I will tread, and will start thinking about taking profits.
If this is the top it is below the current average cost of production. The pop in production cost post halving (over $100,000) is usually an indication of the post bull bottom price NOT a top price. If the price can't go higher then all miners will be out of business soon!
His theory is just based on previous stats and doesn’t take into account the other very important factors such as what’s going on in the world, ETF’s etc.
We’ll see what Bitcoin does when BRICS introduces an alternative reserve currency.
@cryptotips is there a flu going around where you are at?? Or is it allergy season??
Where's his twit/twitter?
FUD always gets stronger when we are about to start another leg up. Never fails to amaze me how emotional people in crypto get. lol
If you keep projecting those numbers into the future, the tops of BTC will be lower and lower in the future. like $50k in 2028, $40k in 2032. Unless BTC stops these big bear market crashes.
When should you consider selling BTC? When the Fear and Greed Index exceeds 80%, when the price of the asset pauses within a range above the previous all time high, when the market liquidity starts to drop, and when economic signs signal disposable income tightening. When should you consider buying? When the market is quiet, which means market participation is very low.
Bitcoin is a heartbreaker
Bro I have a UA-cam channel, BTC to 1 million.
Now i have 1000s of subs who dont know there aint no more Lambo's. He just showed that Lambos are gone years ago.
Only for traders and sellers
She arrives when she's ready, not when you ask her to ❤
The more I hear people say btc is gonna top out in Q4 or before in 2024 the less I believe it'll happen.
Not topped
This isnlike 2019 when it went up to 12k or so. Before going to 3k then 69k
Went to 5k not 3k, and before hitting 67.5 ATH it had a big selloff and went down from 62 to 30k, at a time everybody was saying it was gonna continue higher and higher..
@@duncanmacleod7287in March of 2020 BTC crashed to 3200 (not 5k) the 5k was 2018. In 2019 it went to around 12k (like now) before absolutely crashing to near 3k.
Too bad the Pi-Cycle indicator doesn't work.
x3191, x572, x122, x22, wait, this is an algorithm? You mean it is fixed, and priced, and absolutely predictable? What? Atoshi Backamoto is a mathematician who works for BancOfEngland? Nuh-uh. Lol.
And now x4.5 already topped? Uh, OK. If you used the horribly, basic, Tradng Vew Elliot indicator you could see that in the Wly BTC did a 12345, as planned, known, obvious. Thanks Adam Back for the ultimate laundering vehicle to serve TradFi since 2010.
IMO we should also keep in mind there is alot more inflation compaired to past cycles. Other Charts of bitcoin vs high inflation currencies like the japanese Yen And Turkish Lira made an new ATH much sooner. The Dollar isn't the same measurement anymore to price bitcoin . So i think we should at least add the inflation of the past 4 years (lets say 40%) to the price you predict for this cycle. Everything gets more expensive in dollars, why wouldn't BTC do that?
At some point, there will be a rapid devaluation of the dollar. They can’t stop printing. No one can time it, but one of these cycles will be VERY different as USD collapses.
Nice vijeo...
A lot of comments suggest people forget bitcoin is a limited commodity. 😅
The fact that you're "taking profits" with Bitcoin proves you don't understand it.
He’s a bear, and bears always get wrecked 1 way or another
How many bulls got wrecked buying the top of BTC last cycle?🤔
Fukc what traders say, they don't care about BTC's mission at all
why would it matter if they care or not? more interested on the analysis and reasoning
Mission 😂🤣 You obviously haven't read the white paper. Where it states btc as a p2p exchange of value. Doesn't mention stake and store forever and never use. That was thought of by Broke noobs trying to get rich somehow by never selling or taking profits.
Toby, I agree that the BTC cycles will get less and less volatile as this market matures. However, I don't agree that the BTC cycle will change from being a 4-year cycle to a 3-year cycle. Therefore, the BTC cycle top should come in Q4 of 2025 and not in Q4 of 2024.
PS - I also agree that this cycle is highly unusual because of the spot ETF approval. That should make this cycle top much higher due to the hordes flooding into the best asset in history.
There's no 3 year cycle. No mention of that at all.
The cheaper it will be the better. Stack your sats
Show charts , show visual. We are visual humans. Thanks.
No chart making tools on a surfboard
Diminishing returns is not very applicable, because BTC is an artificial asset. The only real limit on the inputs is the 21 million supply cap, but that increases the value of BTC.
Diminishing returns is a fact observable in the charts since the creation of BTC.
@@duncanmacleod7287 Show me the money. AT what point in time did the returns start to diminish?
Who cares? One does not trade Bitcoin. One only stacks.
⚛️👏⚛️
If that was true you wouldn't be here being a reply guy.
Exactly
You seem to have dropped something... it looks like it might be your sense of humor... @@am7373
I care being that entire crypto market is corelated to btc.
You will take profits on bitcoin. I haven’t watched since the 2021 run, but I thought I understood you’d never sell Bitcoin?
so after FTX BTC was around 17k or 18k IF u got in at 20K and sold at 70K Still better than a bank CD ! LOL Thank u Sam! And SOL was $10 it got to around $200 and u sold at $200 STILL that A lot of profit! and then chill. thank u Sam again!
The central banks will absorb a dominant share of BTC and control it the way they have with gold and other commodities.
I think you need a smaller mic 😂
Who is the guy that posted that?
Peter Brandt
@@zdrux thanks mate
Vapor is vapor. Top 1% BTC adresses control over 90% of supply. 😂😂😂 Same ppl buy and sell BTC and naive retail follows on top.
He's right! 😮
… is he tho?
I love how these guys egos are humbled when their predictions go to sh!t 😂😂
“Bitcoin will be pamp.”
- Ivan
😱New Memecoin: GentleTITA for the future 100X 🐘
Solloway guy?😂😂😂😂
His haircut indicates untrustworthy
If the macro gets worse we are definitely topped
Nah, temporary issues
Except dog coins. That has no logic
I'd rather hold alts. More volatile sure, but bigger gains to be made. Sell the gains for gold/silver. Bitcoin is great if you've accumulated some. Most people can't afford to accumulate it.
Same I make so much more on GRT than I ever did on btc
If you didn’t have doubts about crypto before, after all this gibberish you should have lots of doubts.
Next year is going to blow in a way that people will cry for listening to the nay sayers.
The Asians are comin 😅
You should not say on public when to sell
I remember when I just got into crypto back in 2019 but later in 2020 I ended up selling it because I was dumb and I didn't understand it. I studied and learn and now I know how it works. Got back into crypto 2023 with 10k and I'm up with 128k in a short period of time. This comment serves as motivation for all those who have invested and continue to invest in cryptocurrencies with so many looses, do not give up, cryptocurrencies can change your life. Do your best to connect with the right people and you will surely see changes.
As a beginner what do I need to do? How can I invest, on which platform? If you know any please share.
When someone is straight forward and good at what they do best. People will always say speak for them, for me I would say give Mrs Natalie Brunnel a try and you will be happy you did.
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimony on CNBC news last week.
Her insights and strategies have been helpful to most of us. Remember, success in trading and investing takes time and effort, but with dedication and discipline, it is achievable
This sounds so good and I would like to be a party to this, is there any way I can speak with her?
I agree with him we have topped out! We're going down from here.
current US politics is coming after crypto and unrealized gains,
The sell off could start as early as next week.
Yall are dingbats 😂😂😂
@@JohnDoe-zz3hjespecially you lmao
@@JohnDoe-zz3hjlol, plz sell
@@MochaZilla I DCA in and DCA out.
Once people dont see potential of massive returns
Crypto turns in to tulips
Diminishing returns with the same risk means bye bye
I sincerely appreciate this channel your videos has really helped me alot thanks please I have been making huge loss on my trading account. How can I change this situation
Improving your trading can involve various strategies. Firstly, ensure you have a solid trading plan with clear entry and exit points. Consider diversifying your portfolio to spread risk. Additionally, focus on risk management, setting stop-loss orders to limit losses. Continuous learning and staying updated with market trends and news are crucial too. Finally, practice discipline and avoid emotional trading, sticking to your plan even when things get tough.
Anyone pricing Bitcoin in fiat understands nothing and should be ignored.
Absolutely. The one half of that equation is becoming less valuable every day.
We go to ATH just to go back town yeah right
Bitcoin will pump -from China
Whoever said that must be a rookie, mentally challenged or just a troll. BTC will most likely top next year, not sooner.
Everything crypto has topped. Only down from here.
Wrong
Bot
Pants down from here?
Lmao smh. BITCOIN just started the Engines. THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING.
Btc is so manipulated wake up never seeing 100k this year ,it might hit 70k again hen China starts buying Tuesday but grayscale will dump again next week 😂😂😂😂
*lRS Form lO99-DA*
lol 😂 wrong
You lost me at 'trader'
Toby when you going to go natural like your wife😂.
Garoth Salloway is a joke. He's just as bad as Jim Kramer.
Who the fuck cares! Only traders. Smart people just buy and hold till you decide to go in pension. And enjoy till death.
The next thing is to tell us that BTC is in a bear market
Stack. Gray Scale Bitcoin Trust is still out flowing = stoping 6-12 weeks ? Hong Kong will buy . The halving = scarcity ^^ The world is moving to buy more . Do not sell ! You are in good shape here. HOLD !
Hong Kong market is very small...
150 200k this year 😂😂😂😂😂 ni chance