WAS 2023 THE CORRECTION YEAR FOR BICYCLE INDUSTRY? or IS 2024 GONNA BE EVEN WORSE?
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- Опубліковано 9 лип 2024
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0:00 bike manufacturers conserving and price cuts
10:50 big names that could go out of business - Спорт
This year for 2023 we did an extremely good job of getting our inventory to a number we feel comfortable about but we are scared and already have been dealing with other stores having excess inventory and selling for really cheap to get money for bills or employees, One thing for sure is having debt right now in this world is scary but also debt right now is not like debt in 2020 with the interests being really high holding debt is becoming more and more expensive and companies are doing what they can to pay off that debt and that includes moving current year inventory for cheap to get back money, Let me know the experiences you are all facing in your area
I have watched your videos regarding this issue , including this latest one but I don’t think you have a clear picture of how much the prices need to come down in order for people to buy. You say whoever has 12k for sure has $14k for a S Works. but the same logic applies for 2nd tier Pro , whoever has $8500 can definitely squeeze $9k. I own a business , sales and customer service , to stimulate the consumer to spend money they don’t really have or should not spend on a bike is to have prices low enough that is worth borrowing money to make the purchase and still feel good about it. In my opinion the correct prices should be $9800 for S Works, $6900 for Pro and $5200 for Expert, futile to say no one makes money at this prices because if they don’t sale is no point building them.
I think this shake up is well overdue. And so many bike shops here in Sydney are ridiculously arrogant. I can do all of my own maintenance so it’s not an issue to not have a relationship but if a shop looks after me (even if it’s not the cheapest) but they show at least some respect then they get all my business. If they give me attitude I won’t ever spend a cent with them.
As you should. Any shop giving you undue attitude should probably be ignored. But that goes both ways. As a family owned shop in Oregon, we want to make you happy. But once we had a customer last year, who was harrassing one of our mechanics who was helping the person in line in front of him. The guy came up to him and started yelling at him, our service manager excused himself from the customer he was working with, and slammed his palm on the desk in front of him, and declared, "500 dollars. 500 dollars and I will work on your bikes right now. Each of your bikes brand new is no more than 100. But for how rude you are treating MY EMPLOYEES, who are DOING THIER JOB, YOU get to pay extra." The guy walked out without his bikes and without another word. Just don't be like that guy, and don't tell mechanics how to do thier job and you will be ok.
For some reason local bike shop doesn't like to touch the bike if it didn't came from them. Also they try to suck out alot from you even just from a simple job. How can you even support a local shop if they treat that way.
@@diehardbikes I don’t think you should assume everyone is an obnoxious customer just because you had one in your store nor should you assume I go in telling bike mechanics how to do their job. I don’t know why you’re using caps to yell…sounds like you have some unresolved anger issues. And for the record I have been racing many years and all my bikes are well over $10,000 each. So to get reasonable service in your shop how much does the persons bike need to be worth…why classify people? The very fact you called out that his bikes were only $100 tells me you actually might be “that shop”. Some people are just rude and pushy no matter what but can’t assume everyone is.
@@diegoeleazar9154 That's absolutely correct as evident in the previous comment and unfortunately many shops have a real resentment of customers unless they spend big money on bikes with them (I have worked in two high end bike shops so I know what they say). The good news is those crappy businesses won't survive 2024.
90😅@@occyman
The Pros Closet opened a new Tajs Mahal just over one year ago here in Colorado, more overhead at the wrong time. It started from a guy selling bike parts out of his car. that he lived in. Boulder. He made his money stripping bikes. Shows how things change and you would never know it to look now and how people and business forget where they have come from.
yea it is crazy, I mean I can not fault them for trying to expand when the business was there, but I mean they should have took there time and looked and thought realistically wil this keep up
Inflation has mostly been a cover for corporate greed from what I’ve seen. Companies complaining about inflation and jacking up prices are doubling their profits and hoping nobody would notice. The problem with bikes is they’re just overpriced in general given what they are. I can buy a brand new Kawasaki Ninja for less than a Madone and that just doesn’t sit right with me. It’s a bicycle… Too many people want to gatekeep and paywall this sport though. That Madone has become a status symbol instead of a bicycle. That stuff kills the sport which kills sales across the board. Cycling has a reputation as being prohibitively expensive now so many people just avoid it entirely.
Inflation is related to monetary policy.
If the cycling industry woes would put people like you out of business, then yes there is a serious problem. Love your honesty and your work, keep it up Gc 💪💪💪
This wasn’t a price correction, it’s a price deflation, which means it’s permanent. Bikes are non-essential goods, they aren’t needed to live or do business. Oil get its price corrected, bikes don’t. No body needs a bike to survive and the world economy couldn’t care less about them. The current discounted prices is the new normal. It’s what consumers want and can pay. Bike brands are holding bikes and bike parts that can supply the market for 6 years at the current demand. What’s going to happen when New Year’s Eve goes by and they are still holding an enormous stock? When Spring Break comes and they haven’t made any progress? How will prices change, when summer arrives and the number of bikes and bike parts hasn’t decrease significantly? Even worse…How bike companies will be affected, when people who bought bikes with a highly deflated price, sell them as used or pre-owned bikes at a ridiculously lower price in a year from now? No one defeats the mighty hidden hand of the market, eventually bike brands will come to terms with the new reality, either by adapting to it (manufacturing bikes to 50% of its current value) or by being wiped out. Low demand and excess of supply is a killer combo, even more so, when the decrease in demand responds more to a trend of younger people not being as attracted to bikes like us older folks are. COVID didn’t created this, it only fast forwarded it and caught companies with their pants down.
Time to build budget value bikes. Rim brake bikes should be making its comeback.
2024 will be great year to get a deal. My local bicycle shops had 30% sale on all bikes in stock!
Yea, I’m getting out priced on current year models by massive numbers
That's a bad thing, dude
@@diehardbikes not for customers.
That's great if you are 5'8", I'm 6'4" and I haven't seen a bike at any level in my size ever in a LBS. Special order and on line have been my life's blood thru yrs. Now I buy used and let someone take the big initial hit....
Big problem with road bikes is what true innovation has happened in the last few years that makes a material difference to say a club rider or amateur racer? Gains are so marginal in terms of aero, frame weight and comfort. Shifting and brake performance hasn't changed much in two gens of SRAM/Shimano. Compared to mountain bikes where the difference to a 5 year old bike is night a day, you notice the improvement within 30 seconds of riding it. Very hard to justify upgrading/buying a new road bike other than just for something new and shiny.
A big fan of your *TalkingHead videos. Very informative and insightful. Nice hearing real-world feedback from an individual who's *in the Cycling Market/Industry. Much appreciated big Bro!
#RobbArmstrong 😎
Thanks so much dude!!! I love what your doing over on your channel too, you have a great style!!!
Really enjoyed your analysis throughout 2023, here’s to 2024!
In Australia the top of the range Merida Reacto which is also a pro tour bike is 6-7k cheaper than the equivalently specced S works !! Then when you consider Merida own 49% of Specialized & their factory builds the Tarmac frames you have to ask how does Spesh justify the price differential !! Im guessing that explains why Spesh blocked Merida from selling in the US.
my next bike will be the very top of the road bike range. I'm not expecting a price reduction. I'd even like to build it myself but I can't beat the built bike price with retail component prices!
Just wait a few months. Like, 6-8 months. I think in that time, massive discounts will be found. MASSIVE. It's bad for people like me who are in the industry, but good and bad for everyone else.
I’m thinkin if some is willing to spend $12 they could probably spend $14k😂. I worked at bike shops from 1995 till 2010. BIG part of my life, I do remember the owners of the shops I worked at in the early years complaining that bikes didn’t cost enough! I can’t imagine spending 14k on a top spec bike…and I could…..but, to take that bike out and crash it or damage a $800 rear derailleur…damn, I think I’d ride more stressed out and wouldn’t enjoy cycling on that bike at all. They bike company’s will survive as they did all the other down sales years.
First off A happy Christmas but also a safe new year family and business ,your correct in your reasoning however the public and my self included have felt for a long time that the total cycle business has lost the run of its self on pricing and now comes the reckoning your business is in truth the back bone of all things cycling and PG you and your kind will survive and grow i wish you a successful 24 and onwards Sir.
The guitar maker PRS went to the stores and said, go ahead and discount our guitars and we'll give you the difference. PRS decided it was important that the stores selling their products be OK so they would be there in the future. That's a privately held company though.
The top of the line canyon aeroad cfr is $9400 right now.
that is amazing, that is how it should be but this does not happen here
@GCPerformance18 true. As a family owned store, it's hard with the regular pricing, it's harder with those price cuts..... people need this put into perspective.....
That's technically called manufacturer rebates.
@@MrYAMAHA32177 Yeah but without an hoops. You didn't even need to know about it, the discount just showed up.
Just got a Kona Fire Mountain with 1x9 Advent group for US$368. $800 for an advent bike is pretty crazy, but $368 feel pretty decent.
By the way, people in China can now buy carbon bike with 105 mechanical group, carbon bar/stem and Novatech R4 carbon wheels for ~US$1500.
Is the domestic $15 K fancy carbon bike 10 times better? twice as good? 10% better ... maybe.
Just picked up a 2023 kona process 134 for $1500. Pretty sweet deal! I'll never justify 6k on a bike
Companies are going to need to innovate out of this slump. Saw a slide recently where sales of bikes are down by 50% from pandemic highs. More pain for bike companies and retailers in 2024.
In my country. bike shops that sells super high end bikes (like specialized, trek, giant, and the whole western and mainstream brands) is the “kind” of bike shops that usually runs out of business after JUST a few months or years. Only the bikes that offers 100$ bikes to 2000$ bikes that only remains for years. And they dont focus on selling 2000$ bikes (2000$ is already considered high end in my country). They focus on selling 400$ bikes to 1000$ bikes.
Why? Do you think a 4000$ bike is considered “AFFORDABLE” for people who lives in a 3rd world country? You can already buy a brandnew scooter for your daily transportation for 1000$ to 2000$. And uf you want. A second hand sports motorbike. Only the rich people in my country could “AFFORD” these so called “affordable bicycles”.
Even the amateurs to pro in most asian coutnries mostly uses 1000$ to 3000$ bicycles. Usually the “affordable” asian brands like elves, devel, merida, etc…
A car like a toyota vios or a mitsubishi mirage already costs around 10,000$ to 15,000$. If youre looking for 2nd hand of these in good condition we’ll be looking at 5000$ to 8000$. And these are the type of cars that you will usually see on the roads of my country.
Do you guys not see how close these prices are between BICYCLES and cars? Theres already something wrong with these bike manufacturers even to begin with.
I have no sympathy at all for these mainstream bike manufacturers. EVEN if they ran out of business. Its their fault for putting these insane price tags on these bikes. We consumers here are just working our a**es here to get a good amount of money for a living.
Gcperformance i rlly hope that you dont go bankrupt. Youre on of the youtubers out there that roots for a real affordable bike. And i hope you keep on doing that.
I certainly hurt for anyone losing their livelihoods over all of this, yet lower prices do help consumers and everyone needs consumers and maybe it'll all work out in the end, one would hope. And I'm surprised, GC, that the customers for affordable bikes are not showing up in your store. I mean, as I mentioned the other day, Ben Delaney's favorite gravel bike of the year is a Lauf Rigid at under three grand and what's not to like about that? Plus that Fuji road bike for two grand and one of the reviewers on Ben's show liked an alloy Trek at a similar price best of all for the year. And that Lauf, for example, will surely get a lot of riders into gravel, a great price for carbon and electronic shifting and all the bells and whistles for big days on dirt roads in the middle of the woods or nowhere in particular. And I just think this marketing fixation on fifteen-thousand-dollars bicycles has been a serious downer. It does make one feel small, like a loser for riding something which costs far less than that. And yet they are selling smoke and mirrors, the idea that woohoo, yes, you, too, can ride a bicycle like a Tour de France rider, except unlike those competitors, you have got to pay the big bucks for the experience. Thankfully, high-performance cycling of all sorts can be achieved by the rest of us with far less cash and right now, I'm building up a 26" full rigid compact-frame '90s Specialized Rockhopper Ultra with modern wheels and components and I am having too much fun with it. And the smallish frame is perfect as it'll be a cool little hot rod with a nod to BMX and mountain and gravel. And who knows, somewhere it may get me a trophy in the over-60 class at a gravel event. 😀
I agree, it’s coming. The manufacturers got too greedy. I can see a future where bike shops are owned or franchised by the big brands and become more or less certified repair shops. Everything gets sold direct to consumer. Shops have test bikes available to test ride. Customer orders the bike online, it’s delivered to a shop and they pick it up. Shops earn commission and maybe bonuses. In the long run, it could save the industry. In the short term, bike shops will disappear and it will be rough for those that hold on. The big brands should definitely offer a buy back on unsold bikes especially when they drop prices and go direct to consumer. Back in my day they did that. Basically used us as a warehouse and what we couldn’t sell, they’d take back or have us ship them to other dealers that wanted them. Back before online existed.
I can see it playing out like phone stores, back in the day there use to be so many cell phone stores, mom and pop stores and you can go into anywhere and just buy a cell phone, then the actual big names oipen there own stores up and psuhed plans and just got corprate, they could last because they had the money to last and they could out bid other stores because they opffered free phones with upgrades
I would like too see Pros Closet go out of business. Their offerings are ridiculously overpriced
I could see them transform there business model into an online ecommerce, with the amount of inventory they have
I agree, Pro Closet are absolutely the worst, offering you pennies but charging premium for used.
I think that Giant's pricing is spot on!
Still too high.
So glad I held off on picking up a top end bike in 2023. Ended up with the new Cervelo Soloist Di2 which got me 90% of the premium, but I didn't have to empty my bank account in the process. Honestly think it was the perfect buy for 2023.
Prices are 30% too high to be considered realistic
I have no sympathy for bike manufacturers. They jacked up prices to ridiculous levels during the pandemic. I was looking for a new mountain bike in the spring of 2023. Wound up buying a Norco Sight as the value proposition was reasonable. I laughed at the Santa Cruz bikes with overpriced bikes with garbage parts. Nice bikes, utterly stupid prices.
mtb are so weird to us right now because we do not even have people coming into the stores to have conversations about them, I do not know if they are so heavily discounted or maybe people buying second hand but shit I do not know
The only stupid thing is your comment. Santa Cruz was the one brand with stable prices. Go check their pre COVID prices.
@driventomadness117 they raised prices too, just not as much as everyone else. I recall a Pinkbike video with $10k Hightower equipped with Code R brakes.
@GCPerformance18 I live in greater Vancouver, BC, so mountain bikes are definitely a thing. EMTBs were quite heavily discounted. Santa Cruz in particular.
Forbidden Druid Frames are on sale right now for 2000cad 😂
Definitely going to be a buyers market in 2024. Sadly many LBS will not be in business this time next year. But hey I’m doing my part, buying a bike RN I definitely do not need! N + 5😅
Sadly, we only make about 20-25%, if we are lucky. But with all the price cuts it's more like 8-12%..... all the overhead and shipping sucks money out of our pockets. Then in addition the staffing. Anyone selling bikes for 30% off is likely losing money selling bikes. It's hard to see. People need to understand that it's not corporate greed, that no matter what brand they buy, if they don't support thier local shops now, like you said they won't be there in a year from now. They simply won't. They need us, we need them.
@@diehardbikesit is corporate greed on the manufacturing side though. I saw a bike the other day for $24,000. Bike manufacturers would rather target a handful of whales for a big payout once in a while rather than dealing with smaller margin items and growing the market. They’ve done this to themselves. These things are made of simple chains and sprockets. They aren’t rocket ships. They also shouldn’t cost more than a nice motorcycle…
@GC I got into cycling during covid. Everyone around me thought disc wear the best fresh design but now we all realize and talk about how shit they are on the group rides. Until specialized brings back rim break my head is turned sideways and I refuse to spend a dime.
Realistic is, look at what the componets kost (wheels, groupset, bar, saddle...and then see what´s left. If it is way cheaper to the bike build yourself, then it´s a bad deal.
I think there is a lot of values in offering people custom builds, that way a local shop can gain local customers, loyal customer, repeat customers and make good money from parts and service. Specially now a days when frames , wheels, handlebars are so so many and easy to get , one could benefit greatly buying a bike with the correct handlebar, stem, crank length, etc.
A stock 10sp steel gravel bike is about $1200 at my shop. A Soma frame and all the parts to build a custom 10sp gravel bike is around $2200
Do bike retailers like you have to hold inventory? Or can they get they bike they need from a local distributor, in very short lead time (e.g., 1-2 days)?
And thanks for reporting, GC, from the Land of the Giants. 😀
I think it’s gonna get ugly in 2024. It’s going to be like “the consumer fights back”. Buyers market, it will be a blood bath.
I think this presents opportunity to change the whole tech culture of cycling, and I feel it needs to go more retro: simpler, lighter, cheaper and more comfortable. I see this in the bikepacking scene and it needs to spread! As a long time enthusiast, from a bike shop family in the 70s an 80s and former road and MTB racer and touring cyclist - it is time that bike shops embraced and updated the Dutch Bicycle and got away from drop bar and flat bar bikes to bring back comfort and daily-commute convenience for the masses. For enthusiast riding I think it is high time for the return of the high end rim brake QR road bike. End the silly thru axles and disc brakes, end the wired electric shifting. Bring back the equivalent of SRAM Red 10 which was the last high water mark in groupsets, but with more tire clearance under the rim brakes. Maybe the biggest component company in 5 years will be Microshift, as they embrace retro, value, and keep getting better. For MTB, hard tails should be the rule not the exception imho. I recently got frustrated and ripped off the SUPER UNRELIABLE Ultegra Di2 from my wife's bike and put on Microshift. There is opportunity here, fight back against the big companies and seek standards that suit the people, from the bottom up. Bikes should generally be priced 1/4 as much as motorcycles, not on par with them! Oh yeah ebikes are great too, keeps my 81 year old former champ bike racer dad doing 5000kms a year.
yea I agree with this, there is a chance for a huge correction to happen here but unfortauntlytt the small shops are going to take the brunt of it, all the people who paid for inventory and have in the stores now, as soon as these companies lower prices deflation will happen and they will loose there profits and even cost of bikes like that
I was lucky enough to find a 2024 Giant Defy SL1 (From the Asian Market not available in the US) for $5250 delivered and another $200 for build and fitting. It is listed at 8500 UK pounds or $10,800 US. I found a bike for the price I thought was fair and I bought it. I hope things work out for the bike shops because the big manufacturers made good profits last quarter from what I have read.
holy shit what a deal, and the conversions are insane, last year I had people buying bikes from uk or Europe because they could avoid vat tax, so Ihad customers I was working with and I would call back and be like so what are you thinking on the sworks sl7 and they said they got the same bike from euurope fro like 10,000 usd brand new, I could not compete
Dude, that's more than just fair. Don't expect prices like that. That's unreasonable. Like Grant said, that's a hell of a deal. Even 10 years ago it would've been a hell of a deal.
I know a guy runs a shop locally and selling bikes and cycling stuff makes up about 25% of his business. Seems like one of those suppliers you mentioned, a salesman offered him an insane deal on SRAM components. I about fell over when heard the price
yea, they are moving stuff insanly crazy, duiring black friday I saw sales for 5 piece sram kits for $1000 usd insane
I truly hope that more discounts means more people will take up cycling.
And that will mean more customers.
yes I think this is what wil happen
Trek of which I am a fan done a fantastic job with the prices on the Madone but not in the UK!
The view of bicycles as a sport has destroyed the market. That is a small minority of people that need a bicycle. Most don't buy a bicycle because it's a sport. It's not just greed, it's stupidity. I think the perfect bike is like what motorcycles offer with ADV bikes. Great for touring, off road, cargo, anything. They aren't the fastest, but they are as fast as you want to go. They won't jump 100ft in the air, but they can jump as necessary off road. And they can carry heavy loads for tours/cargo. We need bicycles like that.
I want to support local shops more, but the direct-to-consumer pricing is insanely good right now. Companies like YT are offering bikes at specs that a local store couldn't even come close to. Even buying used parts at a steal and assembling my own bike may not be worth it compared to the current discounts on new stuff.
I really wanted a Fuel Ex back in 2021 when the Ex 5 was around $2200, but there were none available. Now Trek has “lowered” the Gen 5 model to $2500, and the cheapest Gen 6 is $3200. To answer your question - yes, I’d buy a new Fuel Ex for the pre-covid price. Instead, I’m looking at the Transition Sentinel for $3100. It’s a more capable bike for around the same cost, with the same lifetime warranty on the frame. I’m going to wait another month or two and see what the prices do, since I won’t need a full suspension bike until spring. By then hopefully all of the price correcting is finished.
In the UK Specialized and Trek bikes are ludicrously over-priced even for the most basic hybrid.
I am not in the market for a bike right now and I like all of my bikes. But… my MTB is a 2016 and if prices were very attractive, I might upgrade. I can also get a new fork for my bike for 650.00. It was 950-1050 before. I can get deals on some wheels if I wanted to upgrade and I can get 12 speed upgrades also for a good price, so the option of upgrading an existing bike is also out there. I also thought of getting a frame if I could get one for 1500 or so. But most are still 2200-3500.00. Just my thoughts from this side of the equation.
I think next year will be a blood bath for some. If you are in the market for a bike and are willing to buy online or drive a few hours there are some crazy deals. Lots of people want to be loyal to their LBS but when you can "search" for a bike you define as "perfect" at it is in stock somewhere for 30% off or better, it's tough to ignore. Can't really expect the LBS to compete with another shop that is trying to dump product already in stock.
I think 2024 will be they year of clearance inventory with the bike industry hoping they can start with a somewhat level playing field in 2025.
Just pulled the trigger on cervelo s5 DA been eyeing for years and dont see the price drop on flagship bikes, They have to keep their standards which i get. Also dealer keep or have a hard time keeping these in stock usually 3 max in all different sizes. The SOLOIST 105 15-25%. They know what you want You gotta pay to play
S5 is beautiful.
I wouldn't be surprised if GCN goes completely under in 2024.
I’m looking to buy a Mtn bike in 2024. What time of year do you think I will get the best price?
So I saw today that wiggle/chain reaction no longer offer international shipping...
Someone was mentioning that CRC is going bankrupt!Wouldnt be surprised!
Rust on the desktop, i can imagine you doing some base raiding to let off some steam 😂
hahahaha right now I am on the back burner rust, maybe hop on for a day or two and thats all but back in the day 2015, prime server domination 7 man deep, onlines offlines, we would primlock everyone in our locatin hahaha
I think 3 - 6 k is the sweet spot for new bikes and giant and canyon are crushing that range. Hopefully more follow suit. Good video brother.
If 3-6 k is sweet then 2-4k is sweeter etc.
Im in the market for my first mtb. Im a noob in the market and have been looking at the Kona Mahuna for $685 shipped to my lbs vs the Canyon Grand Canyon 5 shipped to my house for $600. Are these bikes a good for first timers for easy trail riding or should i jump on the Nukeproof Scout 290 Race for $820 shipped? Things just seem to be all over the place and difficult for newbs to break into the sport.
2023 Was the year I stopped caring about the bike industry alltogether and just accepted to ride the shit out of what I own.
I would consider a road bike endurance with Di2 105 at 2500 to 3000. Else I’m fine with my 11 speed 105 disc brake so the electric shifting is just nice to have, but nothing I’m willing to pay 5k for.
How about Pinarello ?? They are not effected ??
Trek won’t discount high end bikes. If I didn’t get 20%from my LBS for being a team member, Not sure I’d splurge for high ends! Just ordered a 24 Supercaliber 9.9 XO! $9,000, but thankfully shop discount it will be $7,600. They are now building bikes to order, so they don’t carry high end inventory.
I feel like the low end customer, since they buy bikes between 10 & 15 years apart, are finished for a while after the pandemic frenzy where they paid more than they would have. The mid to high end is in more frequent intervals. I know some guys that buy an average 3 bikes over 2 years!
These are prices pre COVID so yes it's an adjustment to what they were before they ballooned up.
One additional factor, I assume the biggest age bracket for biking is from 25-35 which they just got their college payments reinstated after COVID and no forgiveness granted. Throw in housing and transportation, there is not room for these people to spend $5k+ for a bike.
Wrench Science is always running 15% off custom builds, but think that might increase in '24 to 20-25%. Not sure what their business model is, so it's just speculation.
We have seen this before. LBSs will need to oder smartly, and sell through inventory each year. Imventory at the end of the season will need to be heavily discounted. Each year we will see new models cheaper and speced better than the year before. Cant have old models on the floor.
The ridiculous pricing of bikes is bad for everyone. I have been trying to buy a bike for a few months, but I am not willing to feel as if I am being taken advantage of. I would like to buy from the local bike shop, but it just doesn’t make since to do so. So here we are in a stale mate. Me wanting a bike and holding on to money, and all these bike brands wanting my money, but instead holding on to bikes.
Probably end up with a used bike from someone who is not so attached to whatever margin they used to make.
Do you think the bike market will stratify like cars where you'll have the super high end bikes become brands at a high price point (like S-Works being its own thing) ? The top of the market tends not to be driven by pricing wars and it might be good to start to separate paying for the name or luxury from getting 80% of the same quality but at a more reasonable price.
It already is. Far more bicycle companies than car companies.
I refuse to buy bikes from big brands, especially after seeing all the substandard quality shown by Hambinin, Mapdec, etc. I’ll stick to buying bikes from builders like Mason who actually give a shit about their customer. Their commitment and passion for biking shows.
I mean also this thought, hambini and mapdec only film the bikes that have the issues and get the views, or they highlight what they sell like his bb or mapdec with time bikes that he sells.... for everyone one really bad bike there hundreds to thousands of customers who do not have an issue with that bike, we sell a ton of volume, and I have seen some crap specialized issues with warranty but the best thign about specialized is they stand by there product and take care of it...... everything in this world will break, it all depends on what they do to fix it
Nothing gonna happen business as usual ,prices will still go up you will see...
Would I buy a bicycle in today's market? Yes. I did. My first new bike since 2012.
I bought it online from an independent retail shop. I shopped every LBS around me but everything was at full retail, and this way I got a substantial discount for a leftover '22. It's a brand that isn't available to me locally, but I have a service-only LBS near me that will happily service it. I checked with him before I bought it.
yea I mean right now if you have the money and the means to buy you can get some crazy deals on bikes, alot of stores have so much excess inventory, and they are looking to dump and move in stock items now
I call BS. Firstly you don't buy bikes for $14k and sell them for $14k. Secondly, if manufacturers discount bikes they provide a rebate back to the bike shops so the shops don't lose out too bad. No bike shops is bad for manufacturers so the brands won't let them die. We've had enough, it is corporate price gouging, it just is. The damage is done, there are very few new people starting cycling, there is no middle market and the only bikes selling are the ones profiting from this boom in corporate price gouging that is happening. The future pipeline of cyclists has stalled and the pain has only just begun.
I understand we are into Winter here in Pittsburgh but I can't remember a year prior when I never see people riding bikes on the pathways. We had 60 degree weather on Christmas Day and I didn't see another cyclist and I was out on my bike for about 3 hours. I know people who have bikes but just aren't riding anymore. One of our local Parks is a huge gathering spot for people to ride but now so many walkers and joggers and community events cyclist skip it. I think what we were hoping would happen for cycling is not happening. There is also a massive increase in the amount of motor vehicle traffic around here, worse than I have ever seen. People are scared to ride because it's not safe and we really can't change it up to gravel because all we have are rail trail bike paths which are boring AF. Maybe people are just sick of cycling and the young are finding other things to do like organized sports. I think the bike industry is going to see worse times ahead.
All we can do is advocate cycling. Many of your concerns are being seen here too. But not just in the younger generation(me), but also the older generation. Since 2019, the Pro CX category, which I race in, used to have nearly 50 people race in it in the Cross Crusade, biggest CX series in the country. Now, we are lucky to get 20 people. I used to be lucky to be able to make it into the top 20. Now I'm lucky to make the top 7. And it's not just young folks, we have hundreds of former pros who live here. Former National champions, former TDF riders, we even have someone who was teammates with Lance Armstrong. We had a big cycling community and it's dying. All we can do is promote cycling. For the younger generation, mtb might be the best way to attract many if them. They think it's cool. They see people riding in spandex, like me going to work, that's not so cool to them. They just don't understand what they are seeing so they make fun of and laugh at it. They see having and driving a car as a sign of success. And it's not. Especially when one of my bikes can buy 3 of thier cars. They just don't understand what they are looking at.
Sounds like you are describing North Park? I was wondering how many were out riding on Christmas day. I had to get my ride/workout in pre-dawn because of family commitments. I rode the boring AF Panhandle Trail, lol!
@@CrabgrassFarmer I know that trail. Yeah, rail trails aren't that much fun but on the unpaved sections you can force a workout out of it.
Your local dentist doesn’t want to get salt on his $16,000 ride.
Wouldn't mind seeing Pro's Closet go under. Couldn't happen to a more deserving company.
The top of the line gone a stay very expensive like pro bikes .
Useful video as ever.
Here in southwest London, the equivalent of Pro Closet is Cycle Exchange. I just bought a new Roval Alpinist CL2 wheel set from a dealer in their Christmas promotion for £130 less than the same wheelset is being advertised by Cycle Exchange as “nearly new”. Buying and selling second hand is really tricky in a deflating market. I am sure Cycle Exchange are not trying to make obscene margins in any way (and they seem a reputable outfit) but when OEM kit is sold at over 40% off RRP as these wheels were then it is hard to see how any form of second hand exchange dealer can make money.
As an aside, I was originally going to buy wheels direct from Farsports in China but the Roval deal made the price gap for a similar spec so small that it was just not worth bothering given the Roval will have a U.K. warranty, the risk of duty / VAT being added to the China price and the support of a bike shop under two miles from my house…..
I welcome my new microshift overlord
The bike industry took the simple easy to repair, and get parts for, common affordable bicycle, and totally destroyed it with technology it never needed, and we never wanted. Index shifting began about 1985 and that is where it should have ended. But it went from 6 cogs to 12 or 13 today, each demanding their own chains, cassettes, cranksets, derailleurs and shifters. Then came carbon, titanium, 1x, tri bikes, time trial bikes, gravel bikes, adventure bikes, comfort bikes.....and all of it....total B.S.!!! The ONLY tech the recreational cyclist (99.999% of all sales) got of any value is this top 10 list:
1) Well designed rigid aluminum frames with a curved rake steel fork.
2) disc brakes, should have had these decades ago.
3) Off road bikes and frames that handle 2 inch wide tires.
4) Fat bikes, the ultimate off-road bike.
5) Plastic water bottle cages.
6) Lycra clothes.
7) Clip on aero bars and bar extensions
8) Clipless pedals.
9) Channel saddles.
10) Schwalbe Marathon Plus 2 inch wide street tires.
All of the rest of the CRAP out there are hand-me-downs from the racing world that NO recreational cyclist needs. Non racing, new to cycling, complete beginners buying bicycles that cost more than a motorcycle, all caught up in the lies of marketing. Every bicycle sold should come with a standard gearing that is good for 99% of all terrain and conditions: a 22-32-42 crankset with a: 11-12-13-14-15-17-20-24-28-32 cassette 10 cog/30 speed as a standard. For the 1% of cyclists who are stronger than this gearing let them buy it as an option. This gearing proves we don't need any other cassettes than a 10 cog. 10 should have been the standard and stopped there, any more cogs are a waste of money and time.
Stop!! Inflation is around 3%. Last year around this time it was 7.5%.
It’s not the problem, consumerism is the problem.
This is also true
They said banks couldn’t fail either. I hear Scott are on very shaky ground.
The Chinese Frames being half the price is another reason these big Manufacturers are loosing Market shares
best predection
I hope it dont come true lol, I hope we can all just weather out the storm
You don’t make sense. You’re a retailer that pays wholesale prices,not list. For a $14k bike, you probably paid in the $8k range. You did not lose money selling it for $2000 off of list. You just didn’t make your margins.
Nobody but professionals needs a high-end bike for 14k, and nobody needs a Ferrari.
But advertising and marketing tells us that we all need a Ferrari.
On a normal road, you can drive fast with a Ferrari as a normal driver. You can also drive fast with a Honda.
But with a Ferrari you can show the world that you have more money than a Honda driver.
Just purchased an SLR Emonda and Litespeed Gravel bike fully integrated, both were on sale and deal to good to pass up
Major bike companies will need to shift their focus to the middle half of the market, away from producing and marketing "starter bikes" and pro-level bikes and components, to remain profitable. "Lowering the value of the products" already in dealer inventories is pretty much the same as getting the prices down to where they always should have been, and _that's good for riders._ If new models are released with more realistic pricing, _that's good for riders._ If dealers have previous models in stock that are now under priced by new models, and they have to let them go at cost or at a loss, _that's good for riders._
Bottom line: dealers screwed up and paid more for new inventory and in some cases used inventory than they are now worth. It's getting to be "fire sale" time. That's good for riders._ If dealers get smoked, it's their fault. Local bike shops will have to change to offering mostly used bikes, repairs, and bike fittings for their revenue rather than on being new bike dealers. If they're so inflexible in their business model that they can't shift focus, they will fold. There will be fewer LBSs, but the ones that survive will be the winners of this law-of-the-jungle battle. _Again, that's good for riders,_ even if we have to go a bit further geographically for LBS (non-new stuff) support. Some riders who currently rely on an LBS and lose that shop will learn to do their own repairs. _That's largely good for riders._ Some brand new repairs-only shops will emerge. _Again, good for riders._
Who else wins? On-line sellers of bike tools, parts, and accessories. Direct-to-consumer sellers of new bikes _in the middle range._ Internet content creators who focus on showing riders how to fix their own stuff, find parts, etc.
I doubt that, even if we entirely lose the ability to go into a shop and test ride new bikes, we'll actually be losing that much. The last time I test road a new bike at a shop was in 1999. I've bought seven bikes since then, some new, some used, mostly sight unseen. And they're all just fine.
People who tend to find themselves in between sizes often find test rides incredibly beneficial. Also there are people out there who aren't satisfied with "just fine" and want the firsthand comparison in order to feel assured they are making the best decision. For many people there is definite value in a test ride.
@@hippiebits2071 Then those people need to do everything in their power to support and prop up local bike shops who have inventory to test.
It would just be nice to see mid tier bikes cost less than motorcycles.
Something that i find interesting is that shops ordered a TON of bicycles for two reasons:
1. Customers were walking in looking for anything. They didn't care about who made the bike and what it was made of. They just wanted a bike and they wanted it now
2. Bicycle shops found themselves directly competing against the brands they were selling.
So, customer wants a powder blue Trek Domane six with SRAM Force and 40 mm wheels. Look it up and you are looking at a six month lead time to get it in. Customer goes on the Trek site and can get it in three weeks at their home with White Glove service. The kicker, they can get it for LESS then the shop can inventory it for.
Thus the brand is saved, but the pkace where the bike was to be serviced is no more.
Bottom line: Lots of local shops are going to go under in 2024 IF we don't give them business. I mean buying simple supplies like nutrition and hydration.
A lot of great prices out there. The cervelo soloist 105 or scott foil 105 is an example. And Sl8 is cheaper than Sl7 when it came out
Got greedy, stay greedy...I'll be at the bankruptcy sale with cash
thats a good way to get deals
Im wanting a $6k mtb for 3k or abouts.
they are getting close mtb are not even getting talked about anymore
Welcome to capitalism, my young friend.
So, the bike manufacturer's saw huge demand for bikes where people were willing to pay an arm and a leg for them and wanted to exploit the suckers, but by the time they made them and they reached the shelf people swtiched to something else.
Shock horror, it never happend before in any other industry, right? This is what you get when businesses are trying to adjust to the demand as we go vs planned economy. I can only imagine the envirinmental impact... PS has anyone seen bike share graveyards in China?
Why cant we build a bike in-store just like building a computer?
People bought a lot of bikes during round years and now we have entered recession. It's not really about bike industry. Bankruptcies are up accross the board.
And no it has nothing to do with the super expensive bikes. Those are sold out. The low price bikes aren't.
I have been taking advantage of discounts to build out my wardrobe. Like really build it out. I have also seen discounts on a frameset or two that I am interested in but haven't pulled the trigger on those. But, if I see a 30% discount on a Specialized Roubaix...urgh!!!
I just bought a mix of DA and ultegra groupset 12 speed from TPC for stupidly cheap. Da 11x30 cassette was 180 bucks.
Merlin is blowin out right now. Felts for cost. DeRosa for damn near cost? I think Mikes has Cervelo R5CX red for $6800. Unreal prices. Is not what i want though. But, you just cant unsee these deals. Maybe i should stop looking at them?
You might end up buying something..... yikes....😂
But that Cervelo R5CX Red AXS for 6.5k? 👀👀👀
Hi, do you mind sharing the links to the Merlin and De Rosa deals? Interested in them, thank you
@@markhuang4921 yeah, just merlin and then road on categories.
@@diehardbikes yeah, very spicy. Original msrp is $13k and some change. Is an amazing bike. Van Aerts cx bike!
Bro… you are absolutely sold to the industry. I hope they are giving you a big check or good prices… 12-13k for a road bike should only be for van der poel level. Where is makes a difference.
I did not sel to the industry
@@GCPerformance18 yes you is sold to spechialized and others. Swich to mtb sir
Its a shame but its all corporate greed, short termism.
Do more people buy these expensive road bikes or simple bikes to get exercise and ride on trails? I think all these bikes he is showing are a minority of the marketplace. There are all these big box stores that sell bikes. Guys on You Tube and the commenters say they are junk, but they keep making and selling them. I also think people are riding them. When things get tight people maybe just shift to basic bikes. Maybe some of these excess components will show up on big box store bikes.
I would say in our area it is more higher income, so yes people are buying these nice bikes for exercise and fun, very little are planning on racing these bikes.... but south florida holds a big marketshare for territory and sales with some of these guys, but people are buying more big box bikes right nwo because the entry level priced bikes we use to sell for 500 and 600 are all now 800-1000
@@GCPerformance18 Thanks - I guess there is more money down there than here in the rust belt. You can also ride comfortably year round with no sub zero weather.and snow. It makes sense that people would be spending more money on their bikes. I've heard big box bikes are upping their quality so this may give added incentive for people to stay in the lower price range. They sell a lot of electric bikes in my area. I think a big part of the bicycle future will be the electric bicycles. It's a balmy 35F today and the sun is out. I may just go for a ride.
making the bike industry even more elitist and out of the range of the majority of people does not seem like the best play. Surly its better for these companys to attract normal buyers who will become hopefuly long term customers ? with a range of bike prices to suit kids adults etc and not purely the ultra rich or the 1 in 10,000 athlete . The idea that 4-5 bits of pipe tubing with some wheels HAS to be 2.000 euro or more now is insane . And this is the mentality people have of cycling now its no longer even realistic for most people to get a good bike so why should most people even give a crap about the hobby.
In 2024 we are going to see a major western brand close their doors.
Let’s hope it’s Speshulies…
@@milkbunnies it sadly won’t be they have too many fat lawyers and barristers buying their horribly overpriced marketing junk
spesh has great products, and they are a very smart company it will not be them, I know people hate them for there prices, but they really are the industry leaders and other just follow what they do
yea we could easily
@@GCPerformance18 Specialized also have great value bikes... often overlooked fact.
It's simple, it is over.
its not over, there wil be a bick industry just everything got so hyper accelerated and everyone bought everything, just like everything in life, EXTREME high comes an EXTREME low
G@@GCPerformance18The need to keep upgrading to latest and greatest. The marketing is creating a situation of artificial obsolescence. Most people realize that. I love your channel and will never unsubscribe.
I had two bicycles I put up for sale on facebook and Ebay. Both took too long to sell so I took the ad down. Not trying to give away for free so I gave up and kept the bicycles. This was in NYC. I figured bicycles are not selling anymore in NYC because of all the illegal mopeds and ebikers speeding on the bike lanes. You had to deal with parked cars on the bike lane now you have to deal with ebikes and mopeds speeding and passing you closely. Makes sense people going for mid to high performance bikes to keep up with traffic or can't beat them join them and get a moped or ebike too. Plus nowadays people don't have extra money laying around as you mentioned.
Hi end bike used market in the uk is also in decline, S Works SL7’s which are barely used and under a year old selling for 6-7k and staying on the market unsold. Most of them selling as just bought an SL8 to replace there pretty much unused SL7,s 🤦♂️
Look after yourself