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The NVIDIA Bubble Is About To Pop
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- Опубліковано 12 сер 2024
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00:00 Intro
01:44 The Potential Glut In Demand
13:37 The Current Set Up For NVIDIA
19:42 Insiders Selling, Not Buying
20:38 The Market Melt Up
23:00 Boeing Pleads Guilty
26:20 Paramount Merger
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About Joseph Carlson:
I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on UA-cam full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, and timeline, and overall circumstances.
I have been asked so much about Nvidia that I decided to make a video covering the subject more extensively. Here's my overall bear case and hesitancy of investing in the company. Please consider your own situation when investing and keep in mind that I have no position on Nvidia.
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q1
I essentially agree with you whole thesis except one point which I have some specialized insight due to my job. I dont think nvidia will face any meaningful conpition by other chip makers. I work in machine learning and nividia's proprietary software, cuda, is the best platform for running pytorch, which is the industry standar for all ML, AI, computer vison, etc. This makes competing with them basically impossible, because their chips are essentially the only efficient way to do anything with pytorch, and therefore anything involving AI. So while i do agree that their margins will contract because they will be competing with the hardware they have previously sold, i don't think there will be any meaningful competition from other chip companies.
Also here is a reddit post that echos my point from an even deeper understanding
"I used to work for an ai chip startup, so have a bit of perspective here.
It's a difficult space. Nvidia hardware is already ubiquitous and unless you can directly slot in underneath an existing framework, most customers aren't willing to take the time to port their code to your hardware (quite reasonable, generally speaking).
The second thing is, Pytorch isn't even close to CUDA agnostic. Sure, they're are ways to extract the graph and compile it for your underlying framework, but pytorch comes with a load of optimised CUDA kernels written with the support of Nvidia.
Nvidia have a strong voice in the development of pytorch, which means they can guide it to align with cuda and everyone else plays catch-up.
Nvidia are a hardware company who are excellent at making software. Cuda gets a bad wrap for being complex but when you think about how generalised it is and what's happening under the hood, it's mind blowing how good their software really is. When they can't generalise quickly, they'll put together a new software package for focus areas (e.g. Megatron for LLMs) that allows them to optimise performance in a particular area.
The startup I was at spent 5 years trying to build a software stack that could efficiently compile pytorch graphs from e.g. the JIT trace, and still performance was nowhere near as good as when writing manually with our internal framework because it's so difficult to write a generalized compiler that can cope with a complex memory model and highly parallelized compute.
If you'll excuse a crappy analogy, even the bigger players are 5 miles into a marathon, trying to catch up with a world record marathon runner who had a 20 mile head start.
Finally, right now the space is really fragmented. Lots of startups and all the byperscalers are starting to build their own chips. The new SoftBank slush fund is interesting as it might lead to an amalgamation of competitors working together instead of against each other, and might give enough clout to level the playing field a bit."
Looks like a video wishing for nvidia to go down so you can get in. Should have been interested in nvidia years ago.
I did end up buying 12k on the morning of the split. FOMO maybe, but i think the data centers will still be building out for at least the next year. I base this on gamers complaining about NVDA charging high prices for their GPUs, and not coming out with new GPUs. as the silicon can be sold more profitably in Data. I look to GPU supply's as a leading indicator for that. You are right though, this race is almost over and the price will settle back to a reasonable PE ratio. This is a unique time in history and NVDA was the only game in town worth talking too.
I learned so much from you Joseph. Keep up the good work ❤❤❤.
Is NVIDIA a safe buy to outperform the market this year? I'm tired of these new buys every week, just to make up some assets with low percentage on my $136k portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%.
Yes! but still make your own research. And I would avoid the index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for the time being. The 5% fixed incomes are the safest bet for now. Or hire/ work with a good market strategist. You’re safer that way
I took charge of my portfolio but faced losses in 2022. Realizing the need for a change, I sought advice from a fiduciary advisor. Through restructuring and diversification with dividend stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds, and REITs, my $610k portfolio surged, yielding an annualized gain of 28%.
How can I reach this advisers of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?
'Sharon Ann Meny' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
Thank you for the recommendation. I'll send her an email, and I hope I'm able to reach her.
No brainer. Semiconductor and AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I have made more than 200% ROI from NVIDIA with the assistance of my fa, I won’t fail to mention. I agree the stock would go higher in the next couple of days.
I bought NVIDIA around September last year because my financial-planner recommended it to me…said the company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return this year.
That's a great analogy and I love the insight. Professionals could make a really big difference in investing, and I think everyone should have one. There are aspects of market trend that is difficult for the untrained eyes to see. I have made more than 350% through semiconductor stocks under coach by alternative investing. The portfolio comes with perks as well in terms of travel and liquidity.
One of my goals is to employ the service of a coach this year. I've seen some off LinkedIn but wasn't able to get a response. Could you recommend who it is you work with?
Vivian Jean Wilhelm is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details on the web to set up an appointment
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement of about $150k. I want to know: Do I keep contributing to my portfolio in these unstable markets, or do I look into alternative sectors?
the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
Having an investment adviser is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $220K during this dip, that made it clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one.
Lucinda Margaret Crist is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate this share. I set up a call with her and I am keen on getting to talk to her particularly. Lady looks really great though even with the exams and other stuff.
NVIDIA has some high standards to meet. This could completely alter the game. I've made enough growth stock investments, so at the moment I'm looking for short-term investments with significant dividend potential. Any recommendations?
If you need advice on short-term investments, consider speaking with a financial advisor. They have a lot more knowledge and expertise in this area.
I agree with you mate, I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks. so i reached out to one that appeared on CNBC news in 2020.
I have not written this sort of comment before but from the your comment, I knew that you have good understanding of investing, How can one reach this advisor of yours?
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip
AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.
I agree, just because the market presents opportunities doesn't mean we should rush in headfirst. For this reason, we should look for appropriate market analysis or guidance or, alternatively, seek advice from certified market strategists.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA.
Yes! but still make your own research. And I would avoid the index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for the time being. The 5% fixed incomes are the safest bet for now. Or hire/ work with a good market strategist. You’re safer that way
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Scam bots
With an accelerating revenue, I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next META in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, aiming to retire comfortably.
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K
impressive gains! how can I get your advlsor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
Viviana Marisa Coelho is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
The main focus for markets now is Nvidia, which has powered a large chunk of the S&P 500’s recent earnings. Nvidia’s stock, up more than 90% this year, rose 2.5% in New York on Monday, sending the Nasdaq 100 index to another record high. I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $350K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas...
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
Not to blow her trumpet, but Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury is exceptional in navigating tough markets. She has been planner ever since we met in London global economy conference. she's verifiable , so you could just search her and book an apointment. good luck!
Scam bots
I recently sold some of my Nvidia stocks to secure profits, but I'm retaining a portion for the long term, its growth potential is robust. I'm also considering diversifying my $400K stock portfolio, but I'm uncertain about managing risks in my next move.
When diversifying, spread investments across sectors and assets to lower risks. Research and consult a financial advisor for aligned decisions.
Working with a financial advisor has been a game-changer for me. They provided invaluable insights and tailored strategies that aligned perfectly with my risk tolerance and financial objectives. With their support, I've seen significant growth in my investments and gained confidence in my financial future.
Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?
'Amber Dawn Brummit' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
Boeing killed almost 350 people, blamed the victims, then assassinated all whistle blowers, and got as a consequence a one quarter free cash-flow as punishment 😂
I need to buy some Boeing stock. This is some mafia level power play.
First point not completely accurate
Second point not supported by evidence
More accurate than most ,about a war machine paid for by taxpayers and consistently getting government bids
The evidence was the dead body outside the court
@@cwfarm3793 no
@@NoRegertsHere Boeing-troll alert
I retired with $395k barely a year ago, but inflation is straining my savings. Rising costs are making it tough, and each withdrawal cuts into my compounding interest. I'm really hoping that buying these stocks can help make up the difference
I'm almost ready to retire, and having a financial advisor has been incredibly beneficial. Since I started investing later in life, I couldn't rely solely on compound interest from index funds. I've managed to earn more than some long-term investors. I'll be retiring with at least $7 million
Your financial advisor must be excellent. How can I get in touch with them? I'm worried about my savings and retirement portfolio and could really use some guidance
I generally avoid giving specific recommendations since everyone's situation is unique. However, having worked closely with Emily Ava Milligan for years, I can attest to her great service. You might want to see if she meets your criteria
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made enquiries. Thanks for the help
I've owned NVDA for over 8 years. It's been up and down, but I believe in Jensen Huang and will stick with NVDA until Jensen says otherwise. I know that sounds crazy, but when the financial statements/Jensen, (same to me) tell me to sell, I will. I'm sure I won't sell at the top, but that's OK.
Kept $105k in CIT Bank HYSA at 5.05% but i now plan to invest in the stock market. What are your thoughts on that? What stocks should I look out for as a newbie to safely grow my money?
Apt!! I was self-managing my portfolio but suffered heavy losses in 2022 and i knew i couldn't continue like that, so i consulted a fiduciary advisor. By restructuring and diversifying my $1.2M portfolio with dividend-paying stocks, ETFs, AI stocks, Mutual funds and REITs, I significantly boosted my portfolio, achieving an annualized gain of 28%.
I regret selling stocks 2021 and my strategy ever since has been pretty much buying Gold and silver to protect my wealth but if I could come up with a way to profit from this bull run, that would be brilliant. I've missed so much already.
I don't comfortably throw recommendations around on the internet, but I've been working with Nancy Magaret Delony. God ! she's brilliant! I'm sure there are others who are good.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up first thing. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
While I agree it is a bubble, I don’t think it’s popping soon. Pelosi doesn’t miss with her trades and she just bought more shares
It's not a bubble until the FCF explosion ends. That won't be until 2026, at least. Agree about the Pelosi analysis LOL
This is true😊😊😊
She lost money on TSLA. Sold right before the pump
@@xR00K she didn’t lose money, just didn’t make nearly as much after it pumped
She lost and is still losing a TON on Disney as well
I'm working on an EV, Tech , AI-focused investment plan, researching stocks of Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet, among others. Along with my FA, I have focused my interests on a few major areas based on their performance and anticipated growth which has scaled me to a 7 figure portfolio.
impressive , love the strategy
Kirby please can i get your consultants info? or should i drop mine?
@@AurucciLou she's Dianne Sarah Olson by name. please do your own research to see if she is suitable with your goals.
@@KirbyIneson i googled the lady you mentioned and she has a really impressive bio, i'm looking to make consultations myself
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 and first half of this year with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder.
The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market.
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
My CFA ’ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up and wrote her
up, to schedule a call. many thanks
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks against next year. Hope to make millions in 2024
Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.
Yes true, I have been in touch with a brokerage Advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
Angela Lynn Shilling is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I searched for her full name online, found her page, and sent an email to schedule a meeting. Hopefully, she responds soon. Thank you
FYI everyone: when Joseph says "about to pop" he means after several years. 😂
He is a long term investor. Have to look at things on a yearly charts
And yet you are still here.
Ok. Thanks for saving me a half hour
Yeah, lol. Not really a "pop" but more of a "fizzle" where the stock trades sideways for 3-5 years while FCF catches up with more reasonable multiples.
average dividend investor haha
i feel like every time some one says "the bubble is about to pop" the bubble gets 1 extra day of gains
Cuz thats how bubbles work until they dont work anymore
Cannot predict the market... I feel big crash is coming.
The risk is this guy missed out on huge Nvidia gains.
Better sorry than safe.
@@ronmatthews2164 Probably NVDA will reach $150..
I read that Nvidia provides tech for crypto mining services/blockchain transactions. Could the current crypto pump be attributed to Nvidia’s great earnings and should I hold some crypto as well, cos tbh I’m having FOMO with the current crypto price at 69k.
Microstrategy CEO bought $155million worth of bitcoin, so yes BUY!
this coming months is going to be a wild for these sectors, so you should def. invest in crypto. 60% of my portfolio is spread across tech stocks, crypto and Crypto/Gold ETFs.
well the crypto market is expected to do way better than any other equity sectors this 2024 especially with the SEC crypto ETF approval but it’s a volatile market nevertheless and if you’re new to it, it’s best to reach out to an experienced adviser for proper guidance.
@MitchellStevens you are right ,My asset manager's guidance to diversify my portfolio by investing in mutual funds nd crypto ETFs has been a smart move. d key is to avoid greed nd time ur exits wisely. I've found it invaluable to hve a professional advisor, as most individuals lack d expertise nd time to thoroughly monitor nd analyze d market."
Your invt-adviser must be really good, I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same invt-adviser and how I can get in touch with them?
As a new investor, it's important to remember that investing and trading require more than just technical analysis skills. Discipline and emotional maturity play a significant role in achieving success. It's wise to keep in mind the adage of "time in the market vs. timing the market," as this mentality can help you weather market volatility. With insights of Whitney Eston and my commitment to learning and growth, I've been increasing my earnings in just a few months. Keep up the good work..
She's mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name...
@WhitneyEston.
She's really good in studying the market and making a strategy and i am learning so much from her already.
sounds familiar, I have heard her name on several occasions.. and both her success stories in the wall Street journey!
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Whitney's trade signal service.
I already own shares of NVDA, PALANTIR, TSLA, and APPL as well. Sure, I don't mind having these equities sit around for a while, but I'd also like to appreciate short-term opportunities that could fetch $200,000
the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
Opting for an inves-tment advisr is currently the optimal approach for navigating the market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 85% since 2022
impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
SCAM ALERT ⚠️ 📢
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.
My CFA ’ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
No doubt It's essential to conduct thorough research, consider the long-term outlook of the companies, and diversify your investments to manage risk effectively.
NVIDIA is doing great, Vanguard VTI also. You can count on a net 9% with a reasonable standard deviation of 15 to 17%. Start early, be consistent and the miracle of compound growth will take over.
Use time as the real basis of growth...it takes about 5 years.
That's why It's essential to set up smart plans and diversified investments to ensure smooth and safe sailing no matter the conditions.
Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging.
Consider diversifying your portfolio with a mix of stocks and stable assets. Seeking professional advice now could provide valuable insights and strategies to navigate market uncertainties and protect your investments.
It's crucial for individuals to diversify their portfolios, seek professional financial advice, and stay informed about market trends to navigate these challenges effectively.
NVDA has orders booked all the way to 2026. Has coutless of partnerships and robust connections to many other companies.
The chip industry will continue to be the fastest growing for the foreseeable future
I holding NVDA at least another year
Sell it right before China shuts down Twain. (or Jensen gets sick ;-)
by 2026 some say near Ph'd grad performance will be attained by AIs. There may be limitations still, but there is a good chance this can begin a wave of labor displacement and even higher demand, as the job market and its salaries become the prey of the ai companies.
I agree the rally isn't over yet. FCF explosion is still ongoing. But Joseph has a point -- eventually there will be a reversion to the mean and a glut will come. But that's not in 2024 and probably not 2025 either.
@@diamond_s Depends on what you mean by "PhD grad performance." If you mean true general artificial intelligence, I think 2026 is a bit aggressive lol. But if you mean just from an LLM, yeah I agree. Thing about LLM's is you still need to know what to ask it.
Agree, Boeing is a disgrace. The way they pressured their engineers deserves punishment with jail sentences
With Boeing, there should be prison time and fines to individuals.
Part of the monitor should be boeing pays for FBI monitoring for at least 10 years of all operations.
@@null1808 we don't want it broke worse...
never happening... couple hundred mil in fines and some oversight then back to business as usual
@@andreww5574 I agree it's not happening. But when they say "criminal" and no one is charged, it means nothing.
Boeing should cease hiring DEI.
I work for a series A in the Digital Avatar space and NVIDIA have just partnered with us. Gartner themselves recognizes Digital Avatars will be a 10b + industry in the next few years alone, and NVIDIA have a big role to play here. This is also why they are in bed with Dell, also one of our biggest partners from a hardware standpoint. This is going to totally change the CX landscape and people cannot fight the tide on this. I am not saying NVIDIA doesn't have risk, but there are huge projects like this in the works that the average investor has no idea about that people like me are very close to.
NVDA sits on the perfect next generation hypes like Virtual reallity, autonomouse cars/robotics/bots (you have to train them and only with nvidia its cheap enough) , bio robotics/ drug discovery / medical science. Each of these fields are still in the infancy and you need much more NVIDIA chips to use train and inference it.
How are the margins in that branche?
@@pandoorapirat8644 yes that’s right. Nothing is a certainty while investing, but I think Nvidia will keep growing for the foreseeable future, especially in the areas you mention and the reliance on their hardware. Dell technologies is another one I’d have my eye on but they are less glamorous.
@@levianimals getting better haha. The barrier to entry to do the space properly is still pretty high though. So the majority of our clients are enterprise level. There are a lot of GAN tech companies with mid market to lower solutions, but they don’t have the real time conversational capabilities to keep pace.
Lol. That’s what they once said about Second Life. Remember that one?
If history repeat itself, Nvidia will stay in the 120-140 range for a year, then explode up again.
When hype fizzles out. Nvidia will never see all time hight again for next 20 years.
@@bpolat Lol hype? company has been around since early 2000 and continues to decimate its compitition. From year one to now its been crushing it. What makes you think its just going to disapear as a company? Stocks? lol man your comment is an odd one to say the least.
Buying NVDA calls first thing tomorrow. Thanks 👍🍾
People like to buy high and sell low, let them be.
It's a great strategy for day traders, less so for investors lol.
@@posthardcoresingerwhy is that? It will be a loss correct?
@Jupe367 trend momentum, it's a breakout or break and retest strategy for intraday traders who are in and out within the day with leverage.
Bunch of people like to think they're gonna be clever and sell the top or buy the bottom, but if you don't have short term trading skills, you will get hurt.
I started selling my NVDA shares bought for $45 in 2019, and now I have about $300k. Should I invest this money elsewhere or wait for the market to correct?
You can't go wrong taking profit near a high. No one went broke taking a ~10% profit. Consult a fiduciary advisor for informed buying and selling decisions.
A few years ago, I took profits, but the stock went higher. In 2020, I consulted a financial advisor, and my $1.2m portfolio has since averaged 25% annually through restructuring and diversification with growth/blue-chip stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and REITs.
Who is this person guiding you and how can i reach he/she?
"Melissa Elise Robinson" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I searched her full name and found her website instantly. After reviewing her credentials and conducting due diligence, I reached out to her.
I like it that you are invested at 99% with just 1% cash. Nancy Pelosi recently bought 10 000 shares of NVDA, and the track record of Nancy is not that bad - I'm still holding at 10x.
Eh, that’s kinda what you want to do in a bull run. Ideally, your cash is earning less just sitting there than the stocks it buys.
Ya know!😂😂
You are 100% on Pelosi.
She sold Tesla just before the huge 30% rally and before the robotaxi event.She is not that good lmfao.
The only thing I will skip from JC is his take on NVDA. Why would you listen to someone who was wrong about NVIDA before? He made a video 2 years ago telling you NVDA is too cyclical and he will never own a company like that, that's why he has no exposure to NVDA at all. If you believed him 3 years ago, you would have missed out big time. Even NVDA's mamagenent was wrong about their own stock, they sold 10-100k shares when the stock was at 200s, 300s and 400s, now see what's the price now, $1200. Do you think AI will end in 2 years? Think how long EV lasted? AI just started 1 year ago, we are just starting!
His predictions of a coming "glut" in demand is based on ignorance. The AI data center build outs will never be "complete" .. the upgrading & expansion, will be continuous, since the computational power is growing faster than Moore's law.
NVDA closed at 132.20 today.
I should have bought NVDA when I bought my first Alienware with an Nvidia GPU.
@@Flameboar when was that?
@@brownzoomer 2012
@@FlameboarI had 200k laying in bank in 2012, why didn't I throw it in now having 200k extra.....
He missed it. Therefore, it is a bubble.
Yeah, I don't recall him saying CMG was a bubble. Oh, but autocado machines!
@@jry0511He kinda did though, he said he understands why many have begun shorting CMG but he believes long term the fundamentals will follow.
It’s a bubble lol. Give it till before the end of the year.
When I see such a comment. I can be sure that it is a definitely a bubble.
@@JimmyHuynhdesign Some food for thought: why do people like Tesla? Because of what they BELIEVE the company will do in the future. It has a forward PE of over 100. Nvidia's earnings have been chopping down the PE to BELOW where it was before ChatGPT started the AI rally after each ER.
Now every Japanese toilet needs a Nvidia chip and we are back to new heights.
I hold Nvidia stock for over 12 years and i never sell Nvidia stock.
Like Apple but better.
How did you know to buy it. 12 years ago
@@Dividendflywheelsame ae palantir right now. come back to this comment in 10 years. keep your big winners and lose the losers.
Yeah you will learn very valuable lesson. Good luck.
@@bpolat some who's owned a stock for 12 years knows the ups and downs of that company very well. He'll be fine.
problem with most analysts about NVDA is that they do not understand how much of a moat this company built up in recent years. Will it go down because of competition eventually ? Yes, but it's not going to happen this year, nor the next one. Techies that work in IT know this and you will hardly hear about one owning Nvidia who sold it, despite owning it since 2016 or even before (unless he needed to cash in, obviously).
Tesla did a stock split though, are you accounting for that in your chart?
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Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families in United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
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24:48 if we actually had even a semblance of a functioning judiciary, Boeing C level execs and VPs would all be convicted of 347 counts of capital manslaughter with malicious intent, all getting life imprisonment without chance for parole.
That kind of sentencing would send a much needed signal to corporations to stop the egregious abuse of their monopoly power.
But in order to get there, we’d need a campaign finance reform, which cannot happen due to how the system is built.
Agreed. If a corporation has the same qualities as a "person" (Citizens United) then the corporation should also be punished in a similar way. The corporate veil should not protect company directors in such cases, and they should face the same consequences as if they personally had committed the crime.
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in last month 2024
.......
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
Sincerely speaking. I will continue to trade and stick to expert catherine daily signals and guides as long as it works well for me.
Woah for real? I'm so excited. Adriana's catherine strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?"
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name.
....
I work for one of the top three utilities… we are being pressured to build power supply for massive data centers. The requests are so immense that we are worried about generation capacity. We are dealing with the PSC to find a way to increase investment in generation to accommodate this WONDERFUL revenue generator for an electric utility. Bottom line… data centers are in massive demand hence NVIDIA is going no where but up.
@Josephcarlson360k huh? My UA-cam?
can you provide proof of employment please? This is the internet after all.
@@Dfrogman sure… It’s important to build redundancy into data centers. They sell their services based on reliability. Are they colo, specific or commercial. Auto transfer schemes are a must. The question is does it matter on the transmission or distribution substation level. If it needs to be a completely dedicated system then you need to consider customer owned facilities on site to mitigate the O&M impact to the profitability model. The gold standard will always be auto transfer between two feeds fed from two subs with 230kV or 115kV networked transmission. Preferably separate transmission feeds. That support my statement?
@joseph Please provide thoughts on CAVA.
Strong BUY. Still early innings. NVIDIA is the dominant leader in AI and the preferred technology partner globally. Even w new competition on the horizon, NVIDIA is far ahead of the competition. 85% market share. 76% margin. Unrivaled demand for new Blackwell chip. Demand far exceeds production for Blackwell through to 2025 and beyond. No competitor has anything close to Blackwell. And forward P/E is about 33 (cheap for a high growth stock). Buy this stock and wait. You will be rewarded.
This is Interesting because i bought NVIDIA around September last year. The company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return last year, and I'm sure this year will present other interesting stocks.
When it comes to investment, diversification is key. That is why I have my interests set on key sectors based on performance and projected growth. They range from the EV sector, renewable energy, Tech and Health (AMD) alongside coins, and gold. I'm also working on an investment plan that includes AI looking into Nvidia, MSFT, Alphabet stocks among others with my Fin. Advisor, . It's been a year and half of steady growth.
I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your coach?
Finding financial advisors like Iynne Marie Stella who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Just out of interest, would recency bias also apply to your portfolio gains this year ?
Yeah idk his argument being that normies investing into the company is a bad sign but TXRH and Cost definitely have the same sentiment going on without the seismic fundamental changes that NVDA has had.
@@Winalways-tn3dc Because you see, he is a UA-camr finance guy, and we're just plebs.
None of the stocks in my portfolio 10x their revenue over the past year. Nothing even comes close to the exponential surge that Nvidia has experienced.
Comments saying you missed it whilst looking at your portfolio up 200k+ is quite funny I think you will be just fine. Also most commentators missing the fact you are looking 3-5 years into the future not just where it will go in the next few months
These bots recommending financial advisors is getting out of hand in the comments
Seriously
Many of the arguments being made about Nvidia seem to be about the down stream revenue generation directly as a result of the ML training, but the monetization model that AI is more complex. Github copilot and Gemini layer 1 AI products are not the revenue drivers that people look at, they are loss leaders driving growth of the larger machines. They help drive growth of the current cloud businesses and further entrench the moats of those businesses while also being able to further upsell their clients. I think the way we have to look at it is what is the life-time value of a customer on cloud and then make judgements from there. What these companies are really banking on is getting the next big SW company that grows to be very large similar to Netflix in the past.
My opinion is that Nvidia's acceleration will slow, but their revenue will be retained as these new spaces built off transformers (robotics, autonomous vehicles, drug discovery, visual arts, workflow automation) continue to grow. Nvidia's brand is also very strong and has positioned itself very well to take advantage of these new spaces from their industry specific chip such as the jenson, A100 and also their omniverse software offering for cad tools.
Welp, I just entered a 3x leveraged position in NVDA (3NVD) a couple weeks ago. Let’s see how this goes!
Man let us know how it goes! Gl
🤣 " Lets see how this goes " a gambler i see
I tried 2x but my nerves unfortunately couldn't handle it
You win.
Hey is your dividend portfolio in the description up to date? I do not see salesforce on there
When i say i was right with Tesla 3 Years ago it has from a Statistical Point absolutely no Meaning. I guess Ai has definitely another Future than Tesla. The Market for EV has a Problem worldwide and the Future for Ai will be different. For me the P/E Ratio is high but they are so many Tech Stocks with way higher P/E like Arm Holdings or AMD and many other. I believe in Setbacks but a Bubble? I guess your predictions are a bit to negative when you look on Numbers Nvidia delivered. In August we will see whats going on.
Yeah the FCF explosion is far from over IMO. But I agree that at some point a glut will come.
Netflix will crash before Nvidia
I'll keep this receipt
Based on what, exactly?
NVIDA best investment with no risk almost
How should one proceed to filter companies that meet the 4 criteria for the “perfect situation” on a regular basis?
Nancy Pelosi doesn't lose
Does she hold INVIDIA?
@@ivanchecchin2830 she just bought a bunch on Jun 24 - you can look it up. Like i said she doesn't lose. Probably has someone on Nvidia's financial team letting her know Q2's numbers in combination with buying exactly at the low (118 at the time)
@@ivanchecchin2830 she just recently disclosed a new position in NVDA and dumped TESLA.
@@JustChadding_ Thank you
Love your show thanks
What are your thoughts on EQB?
As an "Electronics Junkie" for over 50yrs and a Computer Nerd the last 20yrs, my opinion is, Nvidia will be profitable so long as Jensen Huang is healthy. I've been waist-deep researching computer hardware the last 10yrs and witnessed the masses throw their money at Nvidia, even though they know for sure, it's overpriced. Nothing beats "CUDA"...
Joseph what are ur thoughts on Rivian now? 🚀
I think one big thing that you have missed in your analysis is that we are staying just at the beginning of the AI boom. If you look for instance the realistic TV series „Person of Interest“ it gives you a great sense of what AI could do in the future.
Generative AI models are driven by machine learning, neural networks, speech-to-text sort of things which are all subsets of Artificial Intelligence. Generative AI models are subsets of Artificial Intelligence. If you imagine AI taking decisions by itself (even within a set of rules and boundaries) the demand for AI chips will at least 10x.
So considering that with AI „we are not there yet“ this technology and software will evolve further and with that it’s demand.
the leftover chips would be used for the quantum computers also data is going to be able to be collected and analyzed faster so i believe they put thought into it already, just like a car manufacturer they don’t sale out of all their current year stock they build off the base model and create an update version and let the aftermarket deal with the price margin of older chips. yes the stock may go down or trade sideways at some point just make profit where you can as an investor and move on like any other stock
Interesting perspective on Nvidia! Thank you!
Thank you Joseph for giving your perspective.
I can only say the US would’ve treated Airbus entirely differently in comparison to Boeing.
As always, incredible info
Great video Joseph, NVDA is my largest position at 15% of my portfolio, it was 20 and I trimmed some about 2 weeks ago. Agree on most of what you said, although I’m up more than 10x so won’t feel too hurt having already made a good return on the 25% I sold if it does take a bit of a tumble. Much love from the UK 🇬🇧 (stuck the cash into Amazon and GOOG haha)
Love your content! Can you please make a video on Portillo’s stock? Thanks
Stocks tend to over & under shoot before we see reversion to the mean. I don't think the FCF explosion for NVDA is over yet. That said, I agree that even if NVDA keeps rallying to $200 over the next year, at some point we are due for a nasty correction. And the stock will ultimately have a 3-5 year period of doing nothing once the glut hits. Similar to TSLA during the past 4 years as you showed. AMD is looking more attractive than NVDA today IMO. I recently trimmed my NVDA position by 15% to put it into AMD instead.
I've seen concerns about the end of the NVDA rally. Since 60% of my $800,000 portfolio is in NVDA, should I consider a defensive strategy now?
Look for stocks with market-beating yields and shares that at least keep pace with the market long term. To develop a successful long-term strategy, seek guidance from a financial advisor.
De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find her webpage and necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
Thanks for your analysis! It would be hard to do it alone! Great information as always!
Anyone know why CMG dipped today?
I absolutely think the moment Nvidia misses any earnings, lowers or even keeps a guidance the same, MASSIVE drop incoming.
Joseph, what are you think about walgreens boots alliance stock?
What's your opinion about Disney stock ?
Good video Joseph 👍 but i think spx could be around 8000 next year. In case for nvda, they just got started so still lots of steams to power the moves. For Boeing, they deserve worse punishment and stock price to go down to about 50 a pop so yeah.. be patient, it could play out. In mean time, not currently buying tech nor finance but bringing my trucks for reit, cre and bdc stocks. They're way under priced.
"Netflix had accelerating revenue growth" no they didn't. That's why the stock dropped, hence it was not a perfect situation. When the revenue started to accelerate again the stock had already recovered. Not all the way, but a hefty amount.
impact on AMZN / MSFT ?
Micron just sold out their HBM for AI for 2025. That should tell you something.
Just commenting about the title before watching... Counterpoint: $NVDA is just getting started. Joseph doesn't understand what's around the corner.
AI will change everything, and $NVDA owns AI. They'll be buying back a TON of shares and even cutting massive dividends like $COST in no time, which means they can't be assessed by traditional "value" metrics. And they haven't even tapped "services" revenue, which will be an even higher margin revenue source than their chips.
I'm splitting my current 100% $SPY position into a 50% $NVDA and 50% $SPY this week to catch up and outperform the index by the end of the year.
To be honest, the thing that BY FAR sets all my alarms off is the “cant be assessed by traditional value metrics”, for me is amd instant, SHIT, this is really a bubble huh? I’ve seen this phrase been thrown around many, many times, last time in the 2021 post covid bull market and everything went to shit.
Again, not saying that this will happen and I do like Nvidia a lot as a company, but be VERY afraid when someone days that, because, in fact, every company can be assesed with the traditional value metrics, any other opinion is just ignorance. Its true that the assessments for Nvidia are just outrageous in terms of massive growth, but you for sure can evaluate its cash flow, ROE, growth projections (hard to do) and everything, and decide if its overvalued. Imo, it is overvalued, but I will buy the shit out of it when it stops being overvalued, which may happen like it did with Meta a few years ago
The internet was supposed to change the world in 2001 and the market still crashed when fundamentals set in... Regardless, the internet still changed the world, but fundamentals matter, and they matter a lot. NVDA stock is dominated by FOMO traders.
What made you come to this realization now and not 6 months ago? 6 months ago there was ample evidence of a FCF explosion from the H100 chips. I don't think the rally is going to end until 2026 but just saying. Make sure you have an actual bull case and not just FOMO lol
@@davidlemmon4603 importance of being diversified and having a long investment horizon. I’m balancing my single stock selections with some SCHG VOT, VGT
@@Dantehhhhh very well put!
Always more to aviation crashes than one contributing factor.
There was an incident the day before the fatal Lionair crash on the same plane. That incident, the actions carried out by the pilots and maintenance crew afterwards were examined in detail in the crash report about the flight the next day.
And at the time of the Ethiopian, MCAS was known about with full procedures for recognising and handling it were distributed already. They weren’t followed by the pilots.
Would’ve been a very challenging day at work, and Boeing carries blame for a lot of the confusion with Lionair, and the oversight has been proved to be lacking by the FAA also.
The data center business took NVDA where we are today with the current gen AI hardware. But, there is a real demand for the new (next gen) NVDA Blackwell chips and 2026 NVDA Rubin chips. In addition too, you will see an increase in enterprise sale and countries buying NVDA AI hardware to train their own models based on that countries language and culture. You can't expect McDonalds to use the same drive through AI model in US and apply that in Japan. Just not going to work due to cultural differences. Plus, NVDA isn't in the business of selling hardware, they are in the business now of selling an eco system (platform) and developers are now using NVDA CUDA to develop all the software. You just can't switch to another AI chip (like AMD) if you spent all the resources to use CUDA by your developers. It is like ripping out the foundation of a sky scrapper. Look man, Jensen isn't stupid. He isn't in the business of selling just hardware, he is locking in his customers by having developers using NVDA CUDA to interact with the model/hardware. I agree with Joseph, this is a bubble but it isn't going to pop for a long time, perhaps after 3 to 5 years. You want to miss that train? Will, up to you. I been in since 2023 and loving the ride. Plus I work as a data engineer supporting machine learning with structured and unstructured data set, so I know business are adopting this big time or I'll be out of a job with all the other IT folks. Cheers
The market's volatility makes DIY dangerous. You do not need to identify the next NVDA to be successful in investing. Choose top-tier ETFs, dividend aristocrats, and a trusted advisor. I turned $180k into $20k in quarterly dividends, which is an exciting milestone
Since I haven't taken any concrete action, I have been thinking about getting one. Could you refer your advisor to someone else? I sincerely could use some of your assistance.
My CFA *Layan Talia Chokr* a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
I searched for her full name online, found her page, and sent an email to schedule a meeting. Hopefully, she responds soon. Thank you
@@AnthonyKilgore-u7r This is obviously a scam.
@@jeeefreee123that guy is definitely a bot as well mate 🤣
First is the bitcoin bubble, now is the AI bubble. The thing with NVIDIA is, their platform is so powerful and flexible, it’s just a matter of time someone will find another use case that blasts NVDA to the stratosphere
It depends when you bought them (Tesla and Palantir). Those are great companies, just not their time. We could argue the same is happening to Chipotle right now…
and you missed it…
The worst about boeing was that managers and leadership got reward from this..
they always do. money flows from the top and scraps to the real workers.
Nvidia is not done
Some might argue it’s just beginning
@@Boblol126 Highly doubt it's either completely done nor is it just beginning. AI is just beginning but Nvidia makes there money at the investment stage of this run, so i'd wager they are well past their prime but not yet retired.
@@wayward03 Makes sense. They have to avoid the traps that previous boom-and-bust hardware-centered companies made like failing to adopt a sustainable software model and it isn't undeniable if they can pull it off.
nvidia will triple within next 5 years, and thats being conservative.
LETS GO JOSEPH POSTED ABOUT NVIDIA (its gonna moon harder now)
like your analysis
Thx for content !
Is chipotle a bubble too?
A Financial Planner told me Saving at least 15% of your income in a 401(k) can help ensure that you have enough money to retire comfortably. How can take advantage of compound interest and potentially grow your retirement savings overtime?
In times like this it is better to seek help from a professional as such key decisions are better guided by experts with market experience.
That is exactly the reason I stopped trusting the financial advice of UA-camrs; in the long run, I only end up with a jumbled collection of stocks and bonds. Whereas all I needed to earn over $350k in less than two years was guidance from a true market expert.
Just want to thank you for giving me insight into what the thought process should be when investing
Comparing nvda to tsla lmao , this will age great !!!!
Did you actually watch the video.
Joseph i agree with you. But remember the quote, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" bubbles will run longer than everyone think. And thats because we are not rational, a good example is the screenshot you shoved from Reddit in the start "My dad just put 200k in Nvidia". Just shows the point, new amature investors getting in around the top.
Appreciate the Boeing perspective, really drives home how messed up this settlement is
Thank you
So, where are you investing right now?