The arguments used here against the Colts are weird to me Yes, the Colts were 20th in DVOA with a 9-8 record. That isn't really much of a statistical outlier as Schatz makes it seem, as there were 19 teams with a 9-8 record or better last season. They owned the 15th pick in the draft, which basically implies they were the 18th best team. So, citing this so-called 20th-predicted to 18th-result "overperformance" (and as the very first reason, no less) seems like really splitting hairs. Then "you can't expect a rookie quarterback to be good, he's effectively a rookie quarterback." I think it's fine to expect a rookie QB to be good, and he's less of a "rookie" than Mahomes was in his first full season, than Stroud was last season, than Herbert was in 2020, Mayfield in 2018, Kyler in 2019... I'm absolutely NOT saying AR will definitely be as good as any of those players in any of those seasons, but why can't we expect him to be at least "good" given the on-field experience he has, the 1+ year of off-field experience he has, the good surrounding cast he has... There is a precedent for that kind of success. Robert hit the nail on the head in bringing up Steichen as an offensive mind that has consistently gotten the best out of his players over the last three years, which makes it easier to believe AR will hit the high end of his range of outcomes. He asks Schatz if his analysis of the Colts accounts for this and is told "no" in many words. I find that to be a large oversight in his analysis. I think the only way the Colts don't hit the Over on their 8.5 win total line is if AR gets injured for a significant part of the season again, which I think does have very real chance of happening given his injury history going back to Florida. (Or also if a slew of injuries hits the Colts team as a whole.) I would be flabbergasted if the reason the Colts finish below .500 is due to AR playing 15+ games but playing poorly. Haters will say it's cope. We shall see either way 🤷♂️
I think the Rookie QB being bad argument is sort of dying off. With the quality of play callers in the league now. Your rookie season when no one has film to study on you is one of the best opportunities you can have. At the same time the OC’s are catering their offense to allow easy and quick decisions for the QB. Unless you set your rookie up with a terrible O-line. There really hasn’t been many “terrible” rookie seasons outside of the teams that had bad O-line
I used to watch Rivers McCown's Final Fantasy 4 speedruns years ago, so it's funny for me to hear his name come up in a completely different context lmao
Miami only started struggling running the ball and throwing over the middle when you betcha injuries. Top 2 RB out 3 of 5 o line out including Armstead. Waddle out Talking about what happened without injuries is kind of like not doing your school work but doing the extra credit assignment
falcons had a defense that ranked 6th last season before grady jarret got injured then fell to 16th. maybe thats why we were in most the games we played last year with a bad qbs
Thank you for cooling the takes on the Colts. Sure, Richardson could be good, but there's so amazingly high projections off of a tiny sample size
I’m betting on Shane Steichen
The arguments used here against the Colts are weird to me
Yes, the Colts were 20th in DVOA with a 9-8 record. That isn't really much of a statistical outlier as Schatz makes it seem, as there were 19 teams with a 9-8 record or better last season. They owned the 15th pick in the draft, which basically implies they were the 18th best team. So, citing this so-called 20th-predicted to 18th-result "overperformance" (and as the very first reason, no less) seems like really splitting hairs.
Then "you can't expect a rookie quarterback to be good, he's effectively a rookie quarterback." I think it's fine to expect a rookie QB to be good, and he's less of a "rookie" than Mahomes was in his first full season, than Stroud was last season, than Herbert was in 2020, Mayfield in 2018, Kyler in 2019... I'm absolutely NOT saying AR will definitely be as good as any of those players in any of those seasons, but why can't we expect him to be at least "good" given the on-field experience he has, the 1+ year of off-field experience he has, the good surrounding cast he has... There is a precedent for that kind of success.
Robert hit the nail on the head in bringing up Steichen as an offensive mind that has consistently gotten the best out of his players over the last three years, which makes it easier to believe AR will hit the high end of his range of outcomes. He asks Schatz if his analysis of the Colts accounts for this and is told "no" in many words. I find that to be a large oversight in his analysis.
I think the only way the Colts don't hit the Over on their 8.5 win total line is if AR gets injured for a significant part of the season again, which I think does have very real chance of happening given his injury history going back to Florida. (Or also if a slew of injuries hits the Colts team as a whole.) I would be flabbergasted if the reason the Colts finish below .500 is due to AR playing 15+ games but playing poorly.
Haters will say it's cope. We shall see either way 🤷♂️
I think the Rookie QB being bad argument is sort of dying off. With the quality of play callers in the league now. Your rookie season when no one has film to study on you is one of the best opportunities you can have. At the same time the OC’s are catering their offense to allow easy and quick decisions for the QB. Unless you set your rookie up with a terrible O-line. There really hasn’t been many “terrible” rookie seasons outside of the teams that had bad O-line
I used to watch Rivers McCown's Final Fantasy 4 speedruns years ago, so it's funny for me to hear his name come up in a completely different context lmao
Miami only started struggling running the ball and throwing over the middle when you betcha injuries.
Top 2 RB out
3 of 5 o line out including Armstead.
Waddle out
Talking about what happened without injuries is kind of like not doing your school work but doing the extra credit assignment
falcons had a defense that ranked 6th last season before grady jarret got injured then fell to 16th. maybe thats why we were in most the games we played last year with a bad qbs
Aaron's wrong about the Colts. AR, JT & Co. are gonna tear up the league this year 😤
Nice freeze frame at the beginning.
BEAR DOWN
Lmao what, the falcons didn't have one of the worst defenses last year.
Love the Eagles doubt. When the Eagles end up a top 10 defense and a top 10 offense they will talk about how talented they are blah blah blah.
k6b